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What’s going on everybody welcome back to Prov Pro tell you what bit of a rough weekend uh Eagles got knocked out predictably and we were so damn close on that Keegan outright feels like we should have had it he should have had it but alas we came up just a little bit
Short Justin how was the weekend for you hopefully a little bit better well no about the same U obviously the Browns got killed we could spend the whole morning talking about football I think after the Browns getting drilled and so many question Mars with your Eagles and
Um yeah it was not very fun and then we got a sick family and and uh the golf was kind of unpredictable um there you definitely saw the names at the top that you thought you would see but there was also um the gra Murray deal he’s super
Talented but kind of came out of nowhere yeah that was uh that was quite the finish and and actually so I I had the the Keegan outright at 60 to1 and if there had been a two-man playoff with just he and Ben on I probably would have hedged that just by
Betting on Benny uh when it was a three-man playoff I did not I’m very glad that I didn’t because if I had hedged I wasn’t going to Grayson and then I actually had the thought to do it when when everyone had hit their approach shots onto the green and it was
Like you know that Benny has five feet you know Keegan has 17 and you know Grayson Murray’s like he’s got to drop a bomb or not so I I thought about hedging at that time and again there would have been just on Benny with the hedge no
Grayson so very glad I didn’t do that because I would have been a double extra painful loss if I had but man what a finish uh I I really felt like Keegan should have closed it out I don’t know about you yeah um let see he it was one
Of those deals I think we ended up even talking about that outright on the show last week and and kind of came up with the idea that you Keegan Bradley should never be 60 to one in a field like that um I think that’s kind of how you know
He came to the Forefront of just the the was just wrong and um not that it’s a bad fit but it’s not an over o overly great fit either um it just he he’s too talented to be at that price yeah so there there are a couple
Things that I want to talk about here and our oneandone play ended up being siah thala who I also had an outright on and the the thesis for the Keegan outright and the thesis for the thala outright are so similar it’s that exactly as you just said like they
Shouldn’t be at the numbers that they were at in that kind of field because they’re so volatile that when they are on they’re on in a way that they can compete against the best fields in the world let alone a field like that we saw like both
Ends of the variance there we saw Keegan very much on his game for four days we saw theala very much off of his game for two days so I don’t look back at that event and say Keegan was a good bet theala was a bad one I think they were
The same type of bet and we just saw you know one of them play well one of them play poorly it just as easily could have been Keegan ejecting after two days in pagala uh contending down the stretch yeah yeah I don’t disagree with that um
I think the one thing looking back at it now done later um but was the fact that of our four that we talked about everybody made the cut um on was one of them in contention and I think that we kind of and I’m kind of new at this I
Think that we kind of underestimated the crowd that we’re playing against too that’s going to look at ownership and I think that we kind of leaned on ownership maybe a little bit more than I I think the reason we went from on to theala was was in part due to the ownership
Situation um so I think that we’re going to have to take a little bit more of that into consideration going forward is I I think that there’s a lot of people in the industry that are playing this contest that are going to kind of do the
Same thing so I think theala ended up with a higher ownership than we we predicted as well yeah I mean he was only 4% so we did correctly stay away from the chalk like Chris Kirk um and and the other thing that I wanted to to
Mention about one and Don is like it doesn’t really matter that we had a miscut right you either have somebody in contention making a good size amount of money or you don’t and it so to me like there all the money in every single week is going to be in first place second
Place third place uh not you know grinding out a T20 or something like that so the miscut doesn’t really bother me and again like we’re probably going to have a fair amount of those if we continue to lean on the type of players like the gala like Gan Bradley who we
Are inviting in that extra volatility so that their odds of finishing that top three are a little bit higher given their skill set yeah I think the only one we missed out on would been obviously is picking on uh you know if we end up if we ended up on him obvously
Of our four then then you know we we definitely had a chance and I think that we’ll probably find oursel in that situation if we’re going to pick two each we’re gonna end upan looking back and saying I wish we would have taken this one so yeah I think that’s probably probably
Uh true for sure um last thing about the recap uh Grayson Murray’s story for anyone who doesn’t know it is a really really interesting one I actually played probably 50 some minior events against against him in the last seven years or whatever um and you could tell that he
Had he was like on his own level of talent where he would go out in a in a strong mini tour field and he’d win by six one week and then he’d make an early double bogey the next week and end up like finishing second last just an an
Incredibly like not just hot and cold but demeanor hot and cold as well uh explosive both in a good way and a bad way and ghost to rehab comes back and now seems like a a different player like all all Sunday I think we saw a level of
Course management from him that we wouldn’t have seen in the past so I don’t know how familiar you are with his game Justin but did you see the same thing from him so I I’m overly Familiar of his older days very volatile person
Um I could go on I could tell a bunch of good Grayson Murray stories uh and I’ll try to not tell any personal one so uh I’ve talked about before previous shows of you know playing in these big money games in West Palm Beach and and uh
Myrtle Beach and that kind of stuff but one year we ended up playing these guys from North Carolina which is where Grayson’s from brought down this new Mini Tour superstar right and they wanted all these swing bets and you know they were pretty juicy right a
Bunch of $100 a whole swing bits well the way I was still playing mini tour golf at the time maybe even had Latin America status and he said he would give me two t-s spots and play and and then you know gave a big group of us and we’re playing
A bunch of 2v tws all the way around but we I mean at the time is he better than me absolutely but can I beat him on any given day especially at that point for sure and then you’re going to give me 50 yards off the te which is my weakest
Point in my entire game and obviously we had a really good week that week and made a bunch of money um the guy that backed all of our action came and gave us I don’t even know how much money he made but it was it was a
Really good week but the whole time even you know I we played against him I only played with him one day but we played against him like four or five days in a row um just a volatile personality like the way that he acted and but he would
Hit shots I mean I watched him hit a three iron from 250 that I was like man this guy’s Next Level Talent right that different sound that we talk about the one that I talked about with like nean and some of those guys when I heard him
Hit balls on the Range he can make that sound um that being said I would I never thought that he would win on the PGA tour just because of the person he was the interview and I even I’ll go as far as that I doubted
His how genuine he was so like with all the stuff that happened I’ve always just kind of doubted doubted how genuine that the what he said really was especially after he fired Kip Henley after Henley helped him get his tour car uh the interview on Sunday was really
Good um every W it seemed very genuine it seemed like um he wasn’t just trying to say the right things so good for him and and I hope that that it is as genuine as it sounds and I hope he has a great career I mean the the thing that stood out to
Me the most was he said is this a career changer yeah maybe but it’s not a lifechanger um so that that’s a big deal uh yeah he gets to I mean what austa the players I mean he’s into a lot of all the big events now but he said you know this
Isn’t going to change my life and if he truly means it and looks at it that way then good for him and then I think he has made big strides yeah and again like I think we just we saw that in the in the course management he was he was making smart
Decisions all around whereas you know I I think I had played one final round with him before where he started a little bit slow and then just started making bad decisions like took a three-wood out of the rough on a on a par five over water and barely even
Reach the water and things of that nature and uh and so really good for him and given how talented we both know that he is and has always been like it improving the course management to the point that he has like this this might not be the last time this year that we
See him not just contending but maybe even actually on top of the podium so uh very interesting to kind of track where his uh season goes from here guys talented enough to to make some real noise uh the last thing I wanted to talk about when it comes to this event was I
Think down the stretch one thing that we did see is the difference between having a lead that you have to protect and being the the Chasers where you know benon gets to the last toll there’s nothing in his mind other than either birdie or Eagle pipes Drive pipes iron
To the middle of the green actually had a very makeable Eagle putt kingan feels like he has something to protect you know sort of chicken’s out on the drive making sure he doesn’t pull one too much and and make a big mistake then he has
To lay up the wed shot he worries about going long comes up a little bit short can make the putt Grayson Murray has the same layup shot same wedge shot and there’s no fear for him of going long because you either make birdie or you
Don’t he hits it to a couple feet so uh I I was curious if you you had like the same re down the stretch where Kagan was clearly protecting and it was just a much easier birdie for those guys chasing oh it’s always easier to be the
Hunter and not the hunted right I mean that’s just the way it is in life everything about it so um yeah especially the the the Grayson Murray shot I mean he you know he’s obviously playing really good and and he had nothing but birdie in his mind it’s easy
To attack I mean you know Ben on just did what Ben on does right I don’t like I think he’s one of the few people that’s kind of immune to that situation um you know I don’t know the keeg and Bradley stuff is it’s easy to be
Critical of it he just I you know I think part of is he just hit a bad shot yeah I mean it’s look it’s it’s tough to win golf tournaments right like even when you’re in the quote unquote driver seat like he was you probably still only
Have like a 25 33% chance of winning something like that so uh I I certainly don’t hold it against him I’m sure we will be betting on him once again in the near future because he’s always mispriced given his volatility and explosiveness so um tell you what let’s
Uh let’s talk again about the big giveaway coming up next week for those who haven’t heard yet uh both Justin and I are giving away a free lesson one each to two lucky winners uh Justin’s going to be giving a short game lesson your choice you want Bunker play do you want
Putting chipping whatever and then I’m going to do a long game lesson again your choice if you just want it to be distance if you want it to be Iron swings whatever the case is two free lessons to give away all you have to do
To be in the running is like this show subscribe to the ftn network YouTube channel and then follow at FN Fantasy on Twitter that’s it you do those things you are in the running for these free lessons some Community Building maybe we’ll even record some of the lessons
And we can like make it a segment of a show or something or or or release some short videos about it uh so lots of fun ways that we can take this but please please please uh get in the running for all those we want to
You know we want to be able to do a lot more of these and uh we think that they could be an absolute blast to do the more people who enter the running the more uh we will be able to do throughout the season yeah for sure it’s always fun and
And I hope that we get a lot of people on board to do this um we’re gonna have a good time with it and I I absolutely plan on talking about some of it during the show and I think it’ll be fun little segment that we can do with it
So yeah I’ll I’ll give you a little bit of a sneak peek we’re going to talk about Scotty sheffer’s putting uh later on in a a way that we we might even be able to give some like really uh helpful insight to anyone listening who just
Wants to become a better putter so uh just to keep that in mind for the rest of the show but first we got to talk about the American Express and the course fit this week one of the more exciting models that we’ve seen so far this season in the sense that basically
Every single aspect of golf is really predictive here the only one that has a lower weight than usual is approach play but the the weight on approach play isn’t lower than usual because approach play isn’t as predictive it’s just that everything else is so predictive here that approach play like it’s probably as
Predictive as usual just in comparison to the others it’s a little bit lower so distance is important driving accuracy is important around the green play is important putting is important everything as we said is important which goes directly against what John ROM said here a few years ago if you remember he
Walked off one of the greens kind of screaming like this is such a [ __ ] putting contest or something something like that in frustration it’s anything but and so uh a bit of a fun conversation to have about how a player especially if rah’s caliber and with his
Golf IQ can be so wrong about a course uh but maybe we’ll get a little into that as well uh what do you think about the course fit here so it’s funny that I’m glad this came up so as as a player as a former professional golfer as a
Person if I played that Golf Course when I got done I would think of it as a putting contest as well just because it it comes across so easy T to Green um you know it doesn’t you don’t feel like there’s a lot to be had anywhere else as long as you’re doing
What you’re supposed to T to Green that being said I think that John ROM is so Elite T green that it every I mean it is a putting contest for him because of the lack of rough and um that kind of stuff so you know I think there’s kind of a
Battle battle into that that he just believes he he doesn’t realize how good he is Tia green so it makes it a putting contest for him I I think you nailed it at the end there which is he he’s so good Tia green that he sort of takes his
Own talents for granted at times and doesn’t realize that what is an easy shot for him is not necessarily an easy shot for everybody else and I think the reason he was calling it a putting contest that day was very specific to the pin locations and and not so much
That the the course itself is a putting contest where he felt like hole after hole he couldn’t really go after pins he had to aim you know 15 feet away from the hole and because he’s so damn good he kept hitting it 15 feet from the hole and just assumed everyone’s hitting it
15 feet from the hole in every hole and and therefore it’s all about whether or not you can make those 15f Footers which he was not that day uh but I so I love the fact that that moment is still in everybody’s head because I think the
Industry comes to this event and they say all right I need good Putters this week it’s not really the case like yeah putting is predictive here but so is everything else and you can you can really gain an advantage here I think finding the guys who are going to to
Play really well TD green uh just based on their skill set yeah and I think the other thing is when you hear of a golf course point you know as all of them collectively playing so much under par you immediately think putting contest right I mean know we did when we you
Know a minior event when it took 25 28 under we’re like oh who’s going to make the most putts this week that’s just what we thought right but we didn’t realize you still have to hit good t- shots you still have to hit good iron
Shots um you h and a lot of times you know you get guys that get going with their irons and hit it in the leather a lot and and then putting really doesn’t matter because the opportunity was such perfect with such perfect conditions that you know you’re going to get a lot
Of people that hit a lot of shots really really close to the hole where putting kind of doesn’t matter as much M yeah the the other way to look at it is you know who’s going to make more birdies the guy who’s putting really well but only gives himself you know six birdie
Looks in the round or the guy who’s not putting well but gives himself 12 birdie looks in the round it’s probably the guy who’s not putting that well but gives himself twice the opportunities so uh lots of reasons there where what what we think as players is just so often either
Skewed or just completely wrong in this case I think Rah was a little bit blinded by his own talent and hey if that gives us an edge fantastic yeah I mean I I can think back in many rounds where I was like man how’d you play well
My score is really good you know I shot four or five under but man I just couldn’t hold a putt well and then you go back you’re like man I hit 17 greens and had a chance you know to make it on 13 or 14 times and I still made four or
Five of them but you just for you if you give yourself that many chances you think everybody has that many chances right which is not necessarily the truth all right let’s go to our favorite bets of the week do you have any outrights that you’re staring at I know
You had a fantastic matchups week this past week by the way so brand new this coming week Justin’s matchup bets are going to be in the tracker at FNB bets.com we’ll get him into the betting Discord as well so we can post all of those plays so if you want to tail
Someone who was 11 in one at one point this past week you probably want to get into that Discord and B tracker access yeah two two and two on Sunday wasn’t the best but uh yeah 11 And1 going in and it was fun because you and and you’ll be able to
Watch the way that I play it and the things that I do is is I’m kind of a creature of habit of leaning on the way the guy’s playing and also generally speaking if I see a guy that just can’t hold any putts that is is noticeably
Better than anybody else T de green I tend to lean that way and I also look at people that have more to play for right that that a guy that is the guy that I leaned on a lot last week was Patton kazy in his matchups because
He has a lot he had a lot to gain and and so I think you know he was a huge part of my My Success um as far as this week’s go this week goes I mean you know we’re I’m gonna go back to sew at 50 to1 here I think
That’s a ridiculous price on him um it just doesn’t make any sense at all to me um the only other one that really stood out as of right now now now let’s remember for me I can’t get the really long shots like you guys can so I mean
There’s a few guys that that I would probably go to that I that if I could Brandon Woo which we you know I was telling you about that did a lot of offseason training on hitting it further um if he continues to drive it straight
He’d be a great fit here um the only other one that I might lean on a little bit is is Tom Kim at 25 to one I think he’s a good fit here and I think he’ll play well uh the other thing that I wanted to say too is if we’re gonna if
Every body’s going to take ROM’s advice and make this a putting contest does that make Sam burns the biggest play on the the best play on the board yeah that’s an interesting one I wonder what burns number is now um because he’s he’s given his name value
He’s a lot lower in our expected Strokes gain projections than I would have expected but you know though most of his game just hasn’t been that solid and he’s 33 to one here and I believe that we had his win probability yeah only 1.4% so no value there um
Which again gets to the gets to the idea that we are not valuing putting as much as most of the industry will not because we’re not valuing putting just because we’re valuing everything else so much more than everybody else is yeah I I but as soon as you know I everybody talks
About that with ROM and I was like well that just sure like as far as DFS goes that’s going to get me off Burns immediately because if people are thinking it’s a putting contest everybody’s going there yeah but he also gives you a lot of win Equity a lot like
He he’s a proven winner so it’s hard to argue with with somebody that knows how to win too MH all right let’s talk Brandon woo because Brandon Woo is one of the three bets that I have already made I’ve got him 125 to one on uh bet
365 that is an eway bet he’s also available at 170 to one over on FanDuel you can almost create your own eway this week where the the 125 to one eway gives you roughly like 31 to 32 to one odds on his top five on FanDuel you can create something similar where you’re
Going with the 170 outright and then you can also do the top five Market individually for 28 to one so you’re you’re not getting much worse odds in the top five Market you’re getting better odds on the outright Market personally because he’s such a long shot
I’d rather have the better odds in the top five than the win which is why I I put more in into the uh each way bet then I will that that 170 to one outright but man both of these are great we have his win probability at 1.0% so
Basically should be 100 to one we have his top five odds at 5.7% just to give an indication even that 28 to one is at 3.45% implied win probability so that that 5.7% for a top five is is just a fantastic number if you can then get
That up to 31 32 to one instead it becomes even better so I love the Brandon wubet and it’s it’s interesting because last week at the Sony he drove it really well his irons were fantastic he was fine both on and around the greens he was more accurate off the T
Than he was long that doesn’t really tell us anything because so many of those holes you’re kind of clubbing down so very interested to see if that driving distance starts going up for him but the the awesome thing about this bet is that distance goes up then we
Absolutely could see him become an even better player than he is but even before there are any signs in the data of that distance coming he’s projecting as a really really solid value in the outright market and the eway market this week so I love this bet and and the fact
That you’re on it because you see this like very specific growth in his game just adds fuel to the fire for me yeah and just to give a little backstory I have a a friend here in Dallas that’s a a trainer that works with a lot lot of professional athletes but mostly golfers
And Speen trading and I know that that he’s been in the gym with you know throughout the winter with them and um well you guys probably know you heard me talk about him it’s Bobby Massa the one that traded the the Monday queued for the um Byron Nelson this year
At Craig Ranch and I told you he was going to lead the lead the field driving distance and I believe he did so um you know I know he’s been in there working on it and uh you know we’ll see if if it comes to fruition this week I’ll be
Pretty excited to see it second bet of the week for me uh your boy Cam Davis you talked about him as a breakout candidate for the season as a whole we we saw the flashes in round one this past week after a very disappointing uh sentury to start the
Year but actually like round four of the century round one of the Sony that’s the upside that we can get from Cam Davis all he needs to do is put it together for maybe three of the four rounds he doesn’t even need to do it for all four we’ve got him
2.4% to win he’s available at 66 to one which is an implied win probability of 1 and a half% so love him here again going with the eway uh because his his top five odds are essentially 10 to one or so I sorry I should say we have him at
10% uh for that top five and with the eway he is see 5.7% implied probability of a top five so absolutely love this cam David bet I’m sure you’re on him as well yeah I’m a fan of Cam Davis I don’t know if I’ll end up there but he’s one of those
Guys too I’m GNA kind of I’ll wait and see and and and watch but you know there there’s certain guys that I just wait and look at the matchups and who they’re up against and stuff um you know so we’ll kind of see what happens as far as
That goes but you’re absolutely right last round to first round like his upside is there um it also comes down to how aggressive he gets he you know he I think that he can kind of get over aggressive at times and you know a guy
Like where you saw ROM hit at 15 feet a lot he might be a little bit more aggressive and then make Bogies where he doesn’t need to yeah I I do think that’s possible it’s also possible that he just makes birdie after birdie after birdie and
He’s he’s one of those players that you know his volatility is is very much specific to just a couple skill sets it’s basically his putting can be awful it can also be the best in the field for the entire week and then his approach play as well
Is really streaky he’s going to drive the ball pretty well and his his around the green game it’s not always the most consistent but I think it’s a lot better than people give him credit for it’s because again like when he’s on he’s really on and that that does extend to
His short game as well but for the most part it’s just are the irons there and is he making putts and uh and I I don’t know what you think here I I wonder if a if an event like this where he should get a ton of opportunities with his
Irons to score and a ton of opportunities to make some birdie putts maybe there’s like this enhanced chance that he gets into a rhythm and that we do see the spike week coming from those skill sets for sure I mean he he’s definitely capable at any given moment and you know
We’ve talked a lot about trying to be ahead of the curve and and hopefully staying on him here you know no nobody’s really coming back around to him especially after not playing very well down the stretch you know last week do you like the fact that he’s been putting
So well of late and it’s his tea green game which we know long term is going to be the the strength of his game that that has actually been holding him back to start the year or would you rather see that the the TD green game is there
And he just needs to get the putter going uh I personally would rather see him need to get the putter going I tend to I tend to think that you know I know you’re most there’s so much more luck involved with putting than there is Tia green so um you know that’s
My initial my initial thought there that being said I I I’m not he might be more of the exception than the rule so the I I think this is one of the most fascinating questions when when projecting golf when betting on golf all these things which is where where does
The regression come soonest and in this case you know I there there are basically two questions are you regressing to tour average or you regressing to the players average so when when Cam Davis has these stretches of putting where he’s gaining point8 at the century one .8 per round at the Sony
How much should we anticipate that regressing and obviously we should we should anticipate that regressing to his average whereas you know when when you have like a guy who has this just outstanding season putting then you expect it to regress to tour average so in this case we’re expecting it to
Regress to his average but then there’s also the sense of like the most stable aspects of the game as you said are the is the ball striking so in that case like the the argument for wanting ball striking to be good T TD green game to be good and the putting to
Be bad is pretty straightforward because you know that the TD green game is the most stable so you expect that to continue when someone’s hitting the ball well I wonder though if because the ball striking is so much more stable so much more predictive if we should expect more
Regression to the players Baseline in those categories so here we have Cam Davis when he plays really well when he contends it’s often because he’s getting Spike weeks from the putter he’s getting those Spike weeks right now I feel like we can be confident the ball striking is going to
Come back because typically he is a good ball Striker so I don’t know I I think that I kind of take the opposite side here where for his chance to win I actually want his the the aspects of his game where we know that we’re going to need the spikes
I want those spikes to be occurring now and I can trust that the ball striking will come back whereas maybe if we’re talking just like DraftKings if we’re talking his chances to make the cut or to finish top 20 in that sense maybe you want the strength of his game to be the
Strength of his game and then you can just hope for that that putting Spike yeah I mean you know as a player too like you go week to week and you putt putt really good for a couple weeks and and you start to gain some confidence especially when the green types are
Similar so yeah I I wouldn’t expect him to overly regress a ton that being said like when we struggled with our ball striking one week we put more time in on the Range and sometimes forgot about the other aspects maybe to a fault so let just hope that he’s not doing that and
That he’s continuing now that being said I don’t know what his routine is but hopefully he has the same set of drills that he’s going to continue to go through and work on and and that kind of deal so um yeah I I mean I don’t disagree especially like I said with
Somebody as talented as he is it’s a different it’s a different aspect than you know maybe you’re more middle of the middle of the road player well I I think also it’s important to note like you know this the Sony Open that Golf Course distance just doesn’t help you there now
He’s going to a course where his distance will help so that in and of itself is a reason to think that his ball striking could be a lot more effective this week I agree uh I mean same same thing goes back to the will Gordon that I talked about last week
Like you could get the exact same thing here of you know obviously playing well um and and now he gets to take advantage of his length a little bit more so um kind of the same idea obviously I believe that Cam Davis is more talented than will Gordon overall that being said the
Upside of of will Gordon can be very elite final outright of the week for me at least for now uh you know certainly could add more as the week goes on Final one though for now is JT Poston we have him 3.9% to win uh was very encouraged
Last week he was second in our Strokes gain model which was a little bit surprising to me but he ends up with a a final round nine under par including just an absolutely scorching hot stretch from six through 12 he went birdie birdie birdie eagle par birdie birdie
And I was like holy crap he went from completely off the the leaderboard like he was maybe 30th or something down in that range and then all of a sudden he’s tied for first uh just a wild stretch so loved seeing that from our model and
We’ve we’ve got him fourth in wi odds this week all the way up at 3.9% he’s available 33 to1 with an inway and uh just for some uh some more context that 33 number puts him at 2.9% implied win probability again we have him at 3.9% so plenty of
Value here and because he is popping in his win odds not because of volatility but because of his just expected outcome his expected s gain is so strong uh that that each way is especially good I think because we have his top five odds here at 16.7% where the implied odds here are
10.8% so 16.7 to 10.8 just absolutely love this each way across the board curious your thoughts on post um let’s just a a simple reminder that this is pretty unscripted so we don’t talk about a allot of this before um he’s number one on my list for one and done this
Week um that’s how I feel about him so I think have one and done picked because he’s number one for me as well so I mean I think you’re gonna get you get the the course fit the form U the course history not only does he fit here but he’s got
The history here as well and I think it’s time for him to break out so um that I’m a big believer and I if I could get him at 40 to1 I would be playing him in the outright Market too the one that I saw was like 33 to1 which
Still I still could get behind but I’m going to try to get the 40 to1 number I I’m a big believer in poting this week I think for what as much as I was against him not against him last week I just didn’t love the number and all the hype
On him um I thought that this week is a way better spot for him yeah we we’ll get to the the one and done talk as well um and apparently we’re going to talk a lot about poson I wanted to to point out right now the the
Odds across the board at least here in Virginia the best available is that 33 to1 number available at bet Rivers at bet Rivers you also get the eway which is why I I love betting there and then I’ll also go to bet 365 for a slightly different eway at 30 to1 the difference
There for anyone curious is on BET Rivers the eway the standard eway is one5 the payout for a top six on bet 365 it’s 1/4 of the payout for a top five I I think that extra 5% of uh of payout is better than the uh slight or than better
Than that extra spot that you get going from a top five to a top six uh it’s close enough for me that what I’m what I’m doing to start this season and what I will probably do throughout the season is instead of saying all right I’m only
Going to do this each way bet on bet 365 or I’m only going to do this each way bet on on BET Rivers I’ll just do one unit on each and that seems to be to be easier so that way you know it’s it’s half a unit on the outright on each and
Then half unit on the placing on each and then you’ll be able to look back at it at the end of the year and see which one was was more profitable as well yep absolutely yeah and and not only which one’s more profitable but which one seems like theoretically better based on
Just how often does that extra spot come into play how often does the uh and then of course like how often does the added payout come into play because you have to actually hit the bet for that that extra payout to be worth it so um that’ll do it for the Best Bets
Section we can get right into the DFS first look here on DraftKings uh it sounds like we both might be pretty high on JT Poston to start lineups yeah for sure um I like posting but I also like one of my first deals is figuring out who I think is just supremely
Underpriced because I I feel like it’s easier to build that way than it is for the you know the higher end guys yeah um I think that Alex SMY is too cheap he he really should like when I first looked down the list I think he’s 7,300 or
Something I think his talent is going to come to the Forefront this year um should be a good place for him and then Brandon woo obviously that we’ve talked about earlier I think he you know he’s down the low 7,000 or right at 7,000 I
Think he’s going to be too cheap so I’m going to kind of build down there and see what happens um yeah I like posting um I’m probably going to stay away from the Uber chalk up top and the really high high price guys the highest I might
Reach would be like a Tom Kim um in that area would probably be his most expensive I could go albeit I really like can’t lay this week I think that he could I like that he you know kind of played good two weeks go and and kind of
KN knock the rest off so um that’s just kind of my early thoughts there there’s there’s one thing I want to talk about at the top of the board you mentioned kind of wanting to to avoid the chalk up here when we look at the price so we’ve got Scotty sheffler
114 Xander shley 109 Klay 108 and then a drop to sunj IM at 101 keep that distinction in mind and now let’s talk about our expected Strokes gained projections the disparity is a little bit larger we’ve got Scotty sheffler 2.2 Xander shafley 2.1 Klay 1.9
And then all the way down to sunj m4th at 1.3 so when I look at the difference between the pricing and our expected s game projections the very first thing that I noticed is I think this Trio of sheffler shley and Klay should be more expensive relative to the rest of the
Field where they should be like 124 119 and 118 so I think there’s a very good chance that I will play one of these guys but anyone who knows me in PGA DFS knows that I typically like balanced builds because I I like building lineups that are almost more about like having
The strongest weakest link that I can possibly have rather than the best quote unquote best plays that I can have so that’s why I typically lean balanced but this week I think there’s such a disparity between our projections and the way that this field is priced
There’s a very good chance that I’ll be starting in this top range yeah and like I said I think if I play one it’s going to be can’t lay and it’s not other question um I think that that’s what makes them intriguing and makes them where I think
They’re going to be a little bit shock here is because their price isn’t quite as high as as one would think it would be um there’s and if you want to do that there’s and I’d love to get your thoughts there’s two guys way down on this board that are just played really
Good at Pete die golf courses if you believe in any of that correlation and that’s two guys that just got through Q School um the Australian kid indicot has been playing really good um had a great year the corn Fairy stuff he could play good here and then Hayden Springer as
Well so you got got um I don’t I don’t you know I don’t know that we really have the data or seen what they’re going to do on the PGA tour yet but if you wanted to reach deep down in for guys that are you know really really talented
That I could see kind of making a Mark here especially if you wanted to get to those top guys pretty easily indic Cut’s an interesting one um you’re absolutely right he just played phenomenally well at Q School prior to Q school he was really really struggling
Where he had a he had a T28 at the Sanderson Farm in October that was the only event that he didn’t lose a considerable amount of Strokes uh since the RBC Canadian open June 11th we did see flashes a very real talent from him like that 12th Place finish at the
Canadian open last season so he’s one of those guys that we we know that the talent is there we absolutely know the upside is there we haven’t seen it very often um maybe now that he’s here maybe we will see it more often uh I think for
Me he’s somebody that I’d rather start to see it before I really Buy in particularly in DFS where you know again like I said it’s it’s so much to me about getting everybody through the cut uh really focusing on having a strong weak link if you will and and he seems a
Little bit too risky for me given that sort of overall strategy but absolutely cannot question the upside uh basically gained by by data golf’s true Strokes gain estimate 3.13 Strokes per round at Q School that’s good enough to win a lot of PGA Tour events so the upside is
Unquestioned yeah the only thing that I worry about is the very different conditions of Q School in this week um and and I’m you know as far as he goes I may look into the he obviously showed the windier and the more difficult at play as it might be better for him so
You know it’s just a name to to think about going forward because I think he does if we can get to a windy you know harder golf course I think he’s a breakout candidate you know sometime at this point and and for anybody listening uh you should you should really hear
That and keep it in the back of your mind because remember last year uh it was Austin eek root and then mini I believe you know before those names became names that people were using on a week toe basis Justin called uh called them breakout candidates and then they
Were at the top of the leaderboard so uh when he when he talks about a guy potentially breaking out we want to listen for sure um last note that I want to make from a DFS standpoint one of the things that I have really kind of moved
Towards this season is this concept of comparing a player’s top five odds to their ownership where this just seems like a a perfect kind of range of probabilities where it’s almost a onetoone comparison and when someone is more likely to finish top five than they
Are to be owned in DFS that makes them really solid plays yet another reason to potentially go to this top range we’ve got Sheffer 39% to finish in the top five shley 35% can’t lay 28% so they’d have to be really really chalky to not Flash in that type of analysis which
Brings me to my big question for you here Justin sheffer’s putting do we think he’s going to figure it out do we think he’s going to continue to struggle one of the things I want to reference here is Kevin kissner’s comments I think were were pretty fantastic about
Sheffer’s putting where we haven’t had this type of analysis in the booth because we’ve been stuck with ainger for so long where he’s just kind of making stuff up as he goes but kizner gave us some really really sound analysis for anyone who hasn’t heard it Kisner talked
About the way that Shefler aligns on his putts and his feet are closed to the Target so if he’s trying to aim right Edge you know most guys when they’re when they’re perfectly aligned their their feet are not going to be aimed at the right Edge but they’re going to be
Parallel to aiming at the right Edge shefflers are closed to that which means he’s aiming too far to the right with his feet his shoulders are counteracting that and they’re not just adjusting to be square they’re over adjusting so that his shoulders are open to the Target makes it really difficult to match
Everything up that’s why kizner thinks he’s really struggling uh when you hear that do you think that that means that we should expect sheffer’s putting struggles to continue or do you think that hey at least there’s something to point to sheffler maybe hears that analysis he works with that with his
Coach and now maybe he has a more clear path to actually figuring it out well I can prise promise you that you know working with Kenyan he’s already heard this he knows this it’s it’s one of those things though do is he putting in enough work
To get comfortable with it um that’s the hardest thing about it um if you remember a couple weeks ago I said something about continuing to trust his new setup in his new putting stroke it looks like he’s gone away he he went away from that and didn’t trust it as
Much and got kind of the lines all crossed up um it’s it kizner was awesome by the way awesome in the booth like can’t say enough about him um no I th this is also comes back to the John Rong comments about the putting contest if you want to say this is a
Putting contest you’re GNA throw out shler that being said where is he pretty good from 10 to 20 feet he just struggles from the close range so is you know because he’s going to give himself so many chances from that range is he worth look um kind of works backwards of what
You would initially think yeah obviously I haven’t run ownership projections yet for the week but it’s gonna be really interesting to see what people do with Sheffer if they think it’s a putting contest is this going to be the lowest own that we could possibly get Sheffer in a field of this
Strength uh because that would be extremely enticing again we’ve got him 39% to finish top five 54% to finish top 10 94 and a half% to make the cut like 14 and half % to win the guy would be a phenomenal DFS play if he’s not one of
The chalki players in the Slate yeah and like I said it’s intriguing when you’ve got a guy that’s going to hit it to you know the distance that that he doesn’t struggle from that much and the greens are going to be they’re they’re not overly difficult where he should have a
Lot of three-footer for par four-footers for par like it that shouldn’t be a huge issue it’s pry you know they’re not yeah I it’ll be interesting to see see what happens as far as ownership of those top three guys do you know do they go down
To can’t way and I have to get off of them just because of that extra few hundred dollars so let me ask you this one of the reasons why sheffler has this alignment issue with his putting is that this is how he aligns for his ball striking he’s the best ball striker in
The world so this alignment is obviously really comfortable for him if you were Scotty would you try to make that type of alignment work in your putting as well or would you try to fight your Natural Instincts on the putting green and try to become a square with the feet
Square with the shoulders Putter and make an improvement that way maybe the the most important variable here which I personally do not know is you know he hasn’t been a bad putter his entire career when he was when he won the Masters for example in that stretch of
His career he was actually a really good putter would you go back look at that time of his career and say you know what were you more square at that time or were you making this work at that time and just stick with that the common uh a pretty common theme
Is open shoulders for putting the the hard part is the closed stance and the open shoulders right the combination but it’s a very common I mean I know I struggle with it fairly often too a matter of fact I know a lot of good players that they went to the claw to
Get their right shoulder deeper and to to not get to it not because they were bad Putters but just to be more consistent with their setup um I’m surprised he hasn’t I you know like when I’m when I was playing a lot and and I would struggle with open
Shoulders I would uh I would practice cross-handed Yeah because it gets your you know it gets you more Square um I would I would go back you know to to standard whenever I was playing but it would just kind of help me my eyes visualize them more Square everything um
I’d be interested to know if he tries any of that stuff or if he thinks about any of that stuff or if he just kind of accepts where he’s at yeah it’s interesting like one of his best friends Sam Burns for anyone who hasn’t seen it
Like his his putting routine is he he addresses the putter gets his hands cross-handed to set his shoulders and then goes back to his usual putting grip uh so just like I think you nailed it like it’s it’s something that uh I really wish we had a little bit more
Information on exactly what is he practicing what’s he trying to accomplish because the the question of whether or not he’s going to fix his putting is so incredibly important to what we’re trying to do here because he’s just so much better than everybody else with ball striking that if he can
Even get himself back to like just a mediocre putter the winds are just going to pour in over and over again yeah I agree and and you see a lot of guys that like kind of hang their left arm down and try to get their left shoulder
Forward and then go into their grip so uh you know I don’t think it would hurt him to work something like that into his pre-shot routine but yep all right let’s talk about one and done before we get out of here uh important note to start which is you
Know it’s it’s one of the one of the last events uh we actually have one more after this one before we get to the elevated events so right now the the winning purse or the overall purse I think is like 8 and a half million when
We get to the elevated events it jumps to 20 million so there’s there’s definitely not the amount up top that there is going to be in so many events which to me definitely says we want to shy away from these top end guys even though we’re not going to be the only
Ones who have that thought like maybe Sheffer maybe shley or Klay are under owned for their win probability just because so many people have the same idea of saving them for bigger better events uh what do you think do you think we should bypass these three way to use them in an
Elevated event uh I think you have to think about it right it can’t be a decision I mean um you know depending on ownership and stuff and stuff like that I I I don’t see using a guy like Sheffer here as something positive just because and he’s going to be the
Favorite in so many fields this year that are elevated events that where ball striking is going to be more important that you know that I just think that um I I wouldn’t want to use him I think if any of the top three if I was going to
Use any it’ be Klay I just think that his success here and the way that he plays that would be the one and so I would kick around the idea on him um but that would be it what ownership like how low would they have to be for you to
Think ah man I kind of wish we used him this week I don’t think for the for the top two I don’t think there is a low enough ownership to be honest I think um there there’s just to you know I’d be interested to know the ex
Breakdown but in an elevated event what is it probably about fifth that pays about the same amount as the winner here um I I think it would be third maybe maybe fourth so I mean you know I just think that you know those guys are G to
Have so much win Equity other places I think if you got Klay under 1% I think we would have to have to look there I I was using 1% for all three of them I don’t think we’re going to get sub 1% on any of them which is why uh my
Top guy JT Poston as I said he’s fourth in our win probability he’s fourth in our top five odds fourth in our top 10 odds he’s just fourth across the board here so uh I don’t think he’s going to be super popular even if he is I think
He projects well enough that we could get off to a good start here with Poston yeah I mean like I said he’s my top one and Dawn um that’s where I lean as well so the only other guy that I kicked around as well as with my outrights is
Is Tom Kim but I think that we’re going to want to use him in an elevated event as well and and just kind of see um he’s one of those guys that kind of goes with his form so we’ll kind of see where his form is too yeah not only his form but
Also his course fit like I think they’re going to be be some events where uh there there are certain aspects of it that just like really scream Tom Kim whereas this one’s just kind of all across the board the my second choice also just sticking with my outrights
Would be Cam Davis um really here it’s because I think that he will be extremely low owned where we know he has the upside but because he fumbled away his opportunity last week because he started the season so poorly at the century I just think that very very very
Few people are going to go to him additionally if people just think this is a pting contest and they don’t realize how important off the te play is here particularly driving distance that’s another reason why people aren’t going to use him so I wouldn’t be
Surprised if if we used Cam Davis and we saw that he’s like 3% this week which does entice me uh particularly poting in up like 5 to 10% um maybe as the as the week goes on we’ll get a better idea of that ownership but I don’t think we
Could possibly go wrong just saying hey poon was the first guy in your mind poson was the first guy in my mind let’s lock that in and not overthink it throughout the rest of the week yeah the I almost hate the fact that he played so good on Sunday right that because I
Think I would have ended up here without that final round and I think the final round is just going to gain more ownership yeah I think you’re 100% right about that so maybe we do want to monitor the ownership what do you think do you do you think there’s a there’s a
Number that that posting could get to where we’d rather have someone like Cam Davis or or is it just like look there are enough good golfers in this field that no one’s going to be so popular that we don’t want to go with the best
Option uh if I hadn’t seen the way that the ownership came out last week I would say yes there is going to be a number we get to but I think that the ownership came out so different than than what we what we expected I think we probably just ride it out this
Week to be to be I don’t think it came out super different than we expected like we were we were definitely right about who the most popular guys were avoiding them successfully uh but yeah we can we can talk about it more throughout the rest of the week it seems
Like poston’s most likely our answered yeah I would I would guess so and that that being said like I love the idea of somebody like Cam Davis we haven’t talked very much about minw Le today um there another one that but I want to kind of see what he did in the off
Season and see how he comes out form wise but he’s another one that that like the talent around a place like this that he has and the upside he’s going to win sooner sooner rather than later yeah we’ve got him at 1.2% to win half of the
Odds of Cam Davis but uh I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s a little low just because I think we’ve seen from him that he’s more talented than his results have indicated and and maybe he starts to really pick it up so you know he he’s somebody that I would almost even
Consider manually adjusting his projections up if we start to see him start the year really really well but uh anything else on this event that you want to touch on no I I I really like this event especially for matchups I I like uh to lean into the to The Stadium Course side
Of things here too so it’ll be a fun week yeah so uh one final reminder uh we will have Justin’s matchup bets in the ftn BET tracker and the ftn bets Discord this week I will add any additional outrights to the tracker as well we’ll talk some price picks in the DFS Discord
Uh so get into all of that if you are interested and one final reminder about these giveaways free lessons who else is giving that away so again follow uh ftn Fantasy on Twitter subscribe to the ftn network YouTube channel and like uh this YouTube video hey if you want to drop a
Comment as well just kind of uh give us your your thoughts your favorite one in done playay what you think about Scotty’s putting anything of that nature go for it as well maybe we’ll give you some bonus points in the draw for those free lessons thanks again everybody for
Tuning in we’ll catch you next time
