Pat Mayo and Tyler Tamboline discuss their favorite 2024 American Express Bets, DraftKings picks, debate the best roster construction for the week and project ownership for DFS guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Plus, they review the DraftKings Ownership while going their weekly Head-ToHead-Lineup Draft.
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SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
2:02 Lineup Recap
7:30 Lineups Construction Strategy
16:18 American Express — 3 Rounds
22:16 Will Z/Daniel Berger
25:55 Highest Ownership
31:44 Showdown Strategy
34:38 Lineups
1:08:17 H2H Draft
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I would love to have Michael Kim on the show he probably would do it he’s following I was saying this last night with Kenny but he’s trying it’s like the the max Homa formula it’s like now he’s becoming very likable on here his posts are still some are funny some are
Informative goes with that he’s hoping to get that uh the max run like I do the course research show every single week even if like you know Mike Mike’s got some time 20 minutes on a Tuesday I will talk to him about the next week’s course
I can add that into the research show of a guy who’s played the course and is currently playing in the field I think that’d be cool everyone should tag him and just say hey you should go on with Pat you should go on and talk about some
Of the stuff loves your stuff he just preached it on the show today go to this Mark or someone can clip this and then put you on there and show them that hey we like your stuff post under one of his recent threads and see if you can get
Them on and be an awesome guy to have on your show Ed of bat experienceat experience bat Experience Batman experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience American Express DraftKings picks the lineups the ownership the preview we’re going head-to-head with Tambo and maybe even reviewing how well I did last week in fact I can guarantee you we are going to do that how well I
Did last week on DraftKings thanks to you you helped me build some lineups and there’s a key thing in there that I wanted to talk through when I was constructing my lineups that you put me on to which I really appreciate for one thing I know Sam who tweeted us who won
The big 250 smart do you play tayor do you play pendrith why don’t you play them both we’ve done this every 20K all kinds of shows we’ve done this football golf everything and it’s so funny that he said that was the tidbit that sort of tipped them off and got there so
Congrats to Sam love to see something like that yeah and it’s always fun like to go through it that we’re making lineups on the show the whole point isn’t play the same lineups that we’re playing the whole point is we’re talking through how to construct the lineup you
Make your own choices and you can see what we’re doing in the strategy behind it and like I didn’t end up with one of those lineups and he did yeah good for him that was awesome and the like say sometimes that’s the case you’re comparing two guys or making cases for
Both of them and the answer is just to play them both especially when they’re value plays like that that can make everything else work that you want to have happen listeners league is now open it’s down in the description so please let’s get that filled up as quickly as
Possible so hopefully I can get the link early next week cuz golf starts early next week golf starts on a Wednesday so it does not coincide with the NFL championship game weekend which I think that every tournament during January should do all these tournaments should start on Wednesday or start golf in
February one of the two no I like the Hawaii swing it’s fine I’m just saying either or they play a lot of events I think that’s part of the lackluster of what people have said they’ve had out of it like last week wasn’t anything special I know really I I there was a
Point on maybe because I had a giant sweat so it’s a little bit different I had a huge sweat but I went main screen golf secondary screen that awful Cowboys game yeah that’s the same same thing but both football wasn’t much better either I won’t lie but I mean some of the games
Were really good but uh yeah golf I just you know awesome ending I had a huge sweat I had a Keegan 60 to1 ticket I ended up needing Grayson to win he got the job done for me so thanks to Grayson there we get through and have some uh
Some news on that as well King of the desert yes H so yeah we’re going to well actually I should say that you should join fantasy National fantasy national.com Mayo get your 20% that’s where I did my research my research show is a walkthrough of that that came out
On Sunday if you’re ever interested in checking that out the Jeff show is out as well too and my newsletter that’s where my column exists right now so it’s like 3,000 words in there this week it’s free to join uh but that’s the only place where you can get it so please go
In there sh it around too so more people know that the article now exists in there that would be very helpful for me and you’re the code Mayo at chip and Nation extending in a week yeah so we’re going to talk about that too real quick
So just a lot of people joined thank you guys appreciate the support obviously it’s nice the discord’s been popping off another huge week over at shipit Nation you can check it out on X shipit Nation to go see the pinned message up top there the post shows everything with it
But we will extend it one more week so you have another chance to get in using Code mail getting 10% off the introductory pricing what’s going to happen is somebody who buys a month goes into the draw with all the others that already bought a month they will get
Upgraded to the season long pass right through till September 1st after the playoffs everything somebody who buys the season pass gets it for $1 179 right now with introductory pricing less than 10% with code Mayo will get their money back and get in for free so that’s the
Contest that’s going to keep running for that one you want to do the other one now we’ll do the other one now but I want to walk you through how although a lot of people lost money with Grayson Murray winning the Keegan outrights Jeff had the benan outright but for you it
Actually turned out to be really good in hindsight and it’s going to turn out to be pretty good for the people yeah full circle on that one I posted it out yesterday it was pretty crazy like d Joel Damon missing the four-footer brought all these minus twos back in in
The king of the desert round one which was a 150 person tournament you had to qualify to went in I had two seats one of them had a good shot I was uh one of like 12 or 14 minus three or better six of six teams so if the cut line had a
Stayed at minus three would have been a lock to get through when Damon misses the Putt and it goes to minus two all the chalk is starting to get through it ends up being 58% six to six only 33% get through the top 50 move on to round
Two Wild Weekend full circle comes down to the end basically needed uh you know there was five teams ahead of me that had one of an or Bradley and a couple with both where you would obviously lose the 10 position placement points from first when they fall back in the playoff
If they lose Grayson hits a horrible t-shot game over I’m thinking no there’s other stuff that happens he makes that big long bomb and then it comes back to a very short putt that is missed that ends up popping me into 48th Place so we
Are moving on to round two King of the desert it’s 50 people moving on or 50 people go to round two 15 will move on to Arizona at the Waste Management Phoenix Open to play for up to 500,000 and Pat I said we got to run it back
King of the king of the beach tried to give away 30,000 get close on it’s easier on these numbers it’s 500k to First we’ll do 5% so up to $25,000 cash be a 5 by55 $5,000 winners it’s going to be for the top three so if
I if I finish in the top three again I still have to get through this week but we’re going there early trying to do it if I finish in the top three I think it’s 100,000 to third for five grand it’s 250 I think for second and then the
500,000 for first will be 25 grand five winners of 5,000 if we get to that spot and win the king of the desert so we’ll come up the plan for the giveaways but for right now whatever you want it to be I think it’s going be comments and and
Yeah the the the biggest one that you got always do for me uh I just need you to either I mean you can do it you can get into one of the draws three ways let’s say you subscribe to the newsletter that will get you a ballot if you’re already subscribed you’re already
In it’s easy stuff uh subscribe to the pat Mayo experience audio podcast on Apple podcast and Spotify turn on those Auto downloads and then rate it five stars then that’s three ways you can get in apple Spotify newsletter boom that will get you in the draw and hey maybe
You can win five grand yeah we’ll come up with three we’ll come up with more for the ship it side just go to the shipet nation YouTube station go under videos there’s a PGA launch video talking about our product there that Pat’s is offering up his discount code
Mayo for 10% on you can go see it there comment on that video subscribe to the channel leave your DK username wish me luck whatever you want to do on there to make it easy so that we can know that it’s you and you got in for this contest
All right so let’s go back just a second because those minus I won the $5 this weekend so that was really nice congrats yeah thank you very much I I knew as soon as Keegan took the lead and I didn’t have Keegan and I was still up by
Like 15 I was like oh I’m going to win yeah it didn’t matter what happened in the playoff uh for me because I was up by 11 going into it and then everyone like I had an that everyone else behind me had either an or Keegan no one had
Grayson so it really didn’t make a difference it’s funny wining very rarely do you win a gpp without having the winner in golf yeah I think it was we figured out the math yesterday 35 teams and even the big $20 was like 35 teams had them so it’s you just weren’t going
To get there so this kind of goes back to the point that you’ve been emphasizing to me for a while that when I talk about these you know bottom end guys like oh do I want to play duffner this week or John pack at 6000 to jam
Everyone in I made two sets of lineups I played like the seven or eight that we played on the show I threw those in the contest and then I played two separate ones I built out my player pool on fantasy National and I think it had like
20 guys in it it had like Hatton at the top um but then I had was like him with some of the $6,000 jabronies that we had talking like Bobby Mack was in there there was like three or four of them but then what I did Dumont de was in there
Then I condensed it so I I made 15 lineups with those 20 guys generated those and then I made another 12 lineups and I cut out everyone above $10,000 and everyone below 7,000 like the cheapest guy I had was Ben Kohl’s in my lineup
And I know shereé was 7100 but I cut him from the pack too I was like that’s more of a flyer type play Ben CO’s is like a real guy at this point and I had played him our head-to-head against you so I like yeah
Might as well ride with this guy so I shrunk my player pool down to I think it was like 16 or 17 guys but no one no one in the 6000s no one in the 10,000s and then I made like another 12 lineups with those and that’s where my winning lineup
Came from in fact all of my good lineups were those ones and when I scanned the leaderboard there was one guy with crazy Carl for a while and then he ended up falling off a cliff that you don’t need the $6,000 guy especially in a tournament like this where it’s not a
Super strong field that these guys in the 6000s we can say that there’s not like a marginal like AAR markable difference between 6,500 and 7200 and that’s true but no one is literally playing these guys so you don’t need to play them either yeah it’s typically the
Way it always is again it’s tougher when it’s a guy like Grayson who was only on 35 teams 8% so I get that angle but even if crazy Carl won I probably still would have won yeah that’s what I was going to get at exactly what you just said is
Even when you get to a guy that’s there was so many guys like our guy Sky hul posts out all of it Skyler posts it on on X and puts all stuff out there you see there’s so many guys at 1 to 2% all those guys that even if you have them at
10% you’re like I got all the leverage on this guy and you do play 150 and you’ve got them in 15 lineups well within those 15 lineups there’s also a dispersion of mid guys and top guys and all this other stuff that you’ve got built in there so only if you got Keegan
And Keegan ended up winning let’s say but your guy is still the guy that comes in as the value play how many of those in those 15 where you have that guy you’re way over the field 10% but you have one with Keegan and now oh what is
What about those other four spots that’s what I’m trying to explain and people just don’t get it they just oh if I just get this guy right it’s all going to go my way you have to really get them right and then it might still not go your way
And it’s funny because I mean you’ve been telling me that for two years and it never really clicked until this week when I looked I was like oh yeah I don’t need these guys yeah at all we’re I mean we’re blanketing it too with the entire
6K range but typically it is more of like what you said of like just this darling that I need to make work because I heard this stat Harrison Andy Cott this week yeah talk about it go ahead I mean I bet him 400 to one because he’s
Sober and everyone’s going to bet him because he’s sober and that’s like the narrative this week but I mean I don’t care at 400 to one I put five bucks on the each way it pays 2500 bucks that’ll be a good investment for me I like the
Betet better too like even Kenny last night was trying to say to me like I’m going to get him with the eight places at 250 I was like buddy you’re betting him for a narrative that he wins because he’s sober so just bet him for the full
Number like it either happens or it doesn’t and get him at the five places at 400 and be happy like it doesn’t really matter at this point so yeah I mean he does have a I think he came 22nd here last year we did kind of like digg
In could we actually sell ourselves on this a lot of people that I know and respect out there and put their articles out and their bets and looking up the tidbits early are on this guy and I don’t think it’s just because of the number like they’re listing a few other
Little tidbits about him so we’ll see well he could and I mean he could be a totally different player at this point like he he got himself sober quit drinking he won Q school in the fall like he wasn’t winning Q school before that like he had barely qualified to be
On the tour and now like he emphatically goes out and wins that event he has played well he was always a first round Le later like I joked all last year that I I would just because his name is so like weird You’ be like oh there’s
Endicott it must be the first round CU he’s inside the top five right now good Showdown Play Always I think that would make sense but here too three guaranteed rounds which we’ll get to but yeah that would be uh the reason I just I like the
BET better than the DFS play yeah and I’m not saying that I’m never going to play $6,000 players again it’s just in especially in a tournament like that when I was condensing and part of my strategy going in at all the short courses Pete die courses whatever it
Might be that I told you like I just don’t want to play anyone in the 10K range and yeah differs to a good good that you brought that up a great point is like Robert B Bobby Mack at 6,900 it’s a real dude like this is a real guy
You’re not taking some diamond in the rough stand or some gem that you think you found it’s Bobby Mack like he can definitely play showed up in Majors all these other factors like the guy’s solid so that’s not the same as what we’re talking about but it’s like trying to
Dig in the dirt to find Grayson Murray to then get 10% even or 5% just to say you had some do you even end up with the right other stuff that goes with him with the perfect like Murray and Bradley type lineup probably not so that’s why
It’s not worth doing in most cases for example like I would have jammed Sheamus power this week at 6700 bucks but he withdrew from the tournament so I can’t do that anymore but that’s an example of I think a real guy whether he’s played
Well or not I have no idea I pulled a cuss I said you know he withdrew I bet him at 200 to one he withdrew it’s going to be like Tim and Aaron Rogers in the Jets this year it’s like I I hit a hypothetical 200 to1 so I’m up big on
The year betting wise now that I have this 200 to1 in my back pocket guar still won the Players yeah yeah Hideki wins The Players Sheamus power won this tournament it was like the Aaron Hills US Open that Phil skipped that cus claim like that’s that’s a basically a win for
Phil because he would have won if he had played so yeah I can see why he does this and just patting give yourself the old Barry Horowitz patting yourself on the back the other thing that I wanted to point to was the tournament that I ended up playing I played in the small
$5 not the big $ five and just having to beat fewer people was easier and I would have come someone pointed out that my lineup that won would have come second in the big contest which probably would have been worth like 50 Grand but I wasn’t going to play 35 entries into the
$20 because I never do so I that doesn’t bother me apparently it bothers especially like it Bo it seems to bother people even if it’s not their lineup it’s weird it’s part of just the you got to bring somebody down when they can’t bring themselves up it’s like oh you
Know you would have want a bunch more it’s like they’re not happy that you won the 5K necessarily to say but this or some will throw it as like an extra jab like congrats but did you know this it’s like I don’t care but also I guess even
If I was comparing that I wouldn’t but if I was I would look at like what did the what happened in the big $5 with 25k up top because maybe you could have thrown it in that $5 instead sure same money value like when people try to say
You know that would have won the 555 like and I’m in a $5 tournament or a $10 tournament it’s like well nice I guess that’s not what I was planning on playing I didn’t I didn’t get in that one so I think you could look at it from
That perspective but then got to remember in those bigger versions the field size is five to six times larger as as well there’s more outlier lineups there’s more things that can get there there’s actually cases where you could have won more in this coming in first for
5,000 coming in like sixth in the other one exactly and you had to play off against a lot more teams so that that could have been the case and we won’t even look it up I just say that is something that I would say that would be
More comparable but why bring a person down you won 5K congrats great start to the season two two events in yeah can’t be down on DraftKings this year that’s right not going to I mean I better not lose 5,000 bucks on draftking I just don’t play that much the big the big
Tournaments are coming yeah but I I don’t play any more on the big tournaments than I do on the little like I actually I I didn’t play more because it was the Sony but I even said on the show last week like the Sony was my best tournament DraftKings wise last year
There’s a very good chance that it’s my best tournament this year the Year previous the Windam was my best one the year two years previous to that like three years in a row the Heritage was my best one give me short Bermuda courses and I’m all in yeah you’re you’re
Telling me that what I love to hear less is more less buyin more outcome more more money you got it I I love that motto and it works for you too so that’s great so I can’t wait to start giving it back this week that’s always a lot of
Fun so let’s dig into the American or the heater or the heater or the heater got yeah got to press it got to put all of it back in got to play in the Thunderdome is that one for golf this week I think they have big ones I I the
3K is a nice one it’s like 3180 and it’s got 100 people in it but I hate that there’s not often times that you can win a ticket to it I would prefer that yeah I’m not going to play in that so that that’s where I’m at in terms of betting
I’ve updated the bets in the newsletter right now I still haven’t made any decisions above Taylor Montgomery I bet him at 60 to1 he’s down to 55 I still like him I like him as play on DraftKings I like him as a bet but I’ll I’ll on the Wednesday newsletter I’ll
Have my finalized I’m still trying to figure out between sunjay Tom Kim and minwoo I think one of those guys will end up making the card I really like Windam Clark this week yeah I saw that I read the newsletter I actually added uh two last night because of you I added
The Nick Taylor before it went away and I added the Taylor Montgomery so isn’t the Nick didn’t the Nick Taylor one seem strange based on his stats last week I just don’t know if they look at that or care enough to say it’s like still Nick Taylor it’s still a very strong field
Whatever but I I was with you on it I thought that was a great call yeah I just thought it was a bad number yeah I like it it’ll get crushed here going forward but let’s talk American Express there are three rounds guaranteed so how does the strategy change with 54
Guaranteed holes like does that mean you should go more stars and scrubs like does it lean more to that because everyone gets it um and or like is this a tournament where you would take a few more flyers on potential birdie makers from down low just because you know that
They’re not going to get cut at least until Sunday not to say that you’re going to win a tournament with a five of six but you could sneak someone through pretty easily yeah I think people do the strategy based on just the concept of the three rounds Thing versus comparing
All the factors in and I would say I’m still going to be interested in that way of going about building my lineups but it’s not necessarily just because the three guaranteed rounds just that’s kind of the gravy on top or the added bonus it’s like what do we have in the field
And what does this look like everyone’s talking about oh this is the strongest field there it is a very strong American it seems like it’s about as strong as last year though but I was going to just say that and it also like if you okay
Yes Scotty X Klay sure but then like sunj JT Jason day Sam Sam R not saying they’re bad players I’m say that’s like it’s not like these are all the best players in the world that are here there’s three or four all of these guys played in this tournament last year
Except for Justin Thomas but John ROM also played in this tournament right so I guess that was my angle on it too so I like this range I like all this other stuff but I think also then what do you have with these guys well all these guys
Have played pretty well here x Klay sunj all these guys Tom Kim like these are all dudes that you could see do well here so I definitely do like the stars and scrubs approach but it’s not just because the three guaranteed rounds that’s the added bonus so per fantasy
National the player who’s lost the most Strokes total the past five years at this tournament is rafhael Campos so don’t play him he’s the Min at 6,000 the five best Sun J Klay SE wuo and hadwin hadwin’s goingon to be very popular this week at 8,300 bucks even though he
Missed the cut last week yeah we we debated that yesterday it’s really hard to tell he should be based on the Cor history if people keep sticking to that but when you have guys there that there is SEIU there is putam who played really well last week Taylor
Montgomery who you talked about and we both bet all the guys Below in the $75 to $7,900 range so maybe there’s a chance he stays at like 15 but that still is popular for that range sure and taking off what James has said about using the fantasy National ownership
Tools earlier in the week to try to project out how they’re going to look by the time the tournament actually starts like High favorite percentage right now like for example no one is playing Shane Lowry in that range and everyone is playing Eric Cole everyone’s playing
Eric Cole at 8,800 over Kirk Clark and Lowry and SEIU and he’s in the middle of them so those guys will probably come in a little bit lower when we get down it’s about even with everyone below that like Cam Davis hadwin btia Montgomery and putam all currently project out right
Around the same now that’s going to shift as the week goes along as people pick their favorites I would guess that Cam Davis is the one who gets left behind yeah or but I don’t know if people will stick with OE there I’m playing oay yeah o was in my winning
Lineup last week dude [ __ ] rules man yeah he’s solid I just and this I I mean he didn’t putt well here last year but he’s changed his putter he putts really well on slow greens these are really slow greens and the pins are all like
That’s the one thing that I it’s hard to quantify this in Pebble Beach because they are pro AMS the pins aren’t in tough spots they’re in really easy spots because you have a bunch of [ __ ] amers playing in this tournament and they try to protect them a little bit
They’re not like the world’s easiest pins but they’re also not in difficult locations so when you get a player like OE all he wants to do is [ __ ] fire at pins it’s like like why Scotty plays really well here too he just misses every putt so it’s it’s tough for him
But it’s just like oh there’s an accessible pin I’m going to fire at it yeah and then you just make a ton of birdies and I think that now that he can put a little bit it’s actually a really nice spot for him I I like the call like
I said again that’s the part where it’s when you have he squeezed between hadwin Montgomery and putam so how how does again they can’t all get the ownership so that’s what I’m interested to see when we start building out and look at like maybe what an optimal might look
Like and then base it off of that like I I just don’t see how that would happen where he gets extremely popular so it’s a good play for you like you said in tournaments because you have a great case to make for him so I do you guys
Have the educational videos on shipet Nation up yet about like tournament selection and everything like that yeah the PGA one’s up it comes free with the membership so if you sign up with Co Mayo you get the deal plus you get the course it’s two hours but you can skip
Around it’s all broken down for you in a legend style that you can go and see but contest selection bankroll management all that stuff that goes with it as well yeah and I think that’s one thing that you’ve really taught me doing the show now for two years back and forth
Building these lineups and even just talking afterwards is now that I’ve cleaned up my contest selection so much especially like it was more so in NFL because I would just donate money in NFL every single year now I’ve won the past three years been up money in NFL and
It’s almost exclusively due to contest selection just playing like I play the 150 every week I don’t play the big 150 I play the small 150 and I just you know come eighth fourth fifth three times a year it PS for the year yeah it’s nice so
Yeah I think the same thing in golf too like if I had played the big $5 would I have won it I don’t know I don’t really care I won the smaller one and I’m probably going to stick to the smaller Fields by and large there’s a big
Smaller $6 this week that I think I’ll probably play 30 lineups in yeah 5K top again nice balanc structure it’s basically the same tournament that I won last week but now it’s $6 instead of five it’s just it’s always what it is right Pat everybody wants to win the big
Score the biggest one but like you still these help get you there like if you got five grand and just play it this way and you win another 5 grand in a month and a half from now and it just keeps building the bank roll up and then maybe you win
Some tickets I always do recommend when we talk about this in the course the secret of satellites and about how I’m getting into these events like King of the Desert King of the Beach I’ve had a ton of success with all these spots it’s through the satellites and you did well
With them I mean you got into King of the beach one through one last year as well you know the power of these things I strongly recommend it it’s in the course we break it all down on why and how it’s important but I think that’s the key people don’t focus on enough
That’s how you can get through but why not win 5K in the meantime while you’re waiting for your big spot like that to get your big break that that’s how I look at it so the reason that I beat you in our head-to-head which I’ll review at
The end of the show we’ll make our new picks for this week is you played will zotus in a head-to-head against me not a good play as he did not do well results oriented always that is results oriented but I I went back on the research show
And kind of broke down his round by round and you know his two he only had two rounds he and Woodland I kind of dove into and the one thing I noticed between the both of them short games were Terri like they bled Strokes chipping especially early on and like
Will couldn’t Putt in the first round I think that’s the underrated part about coming back to playing like you can practice all you want an iron shot is an iron shot a t- shot is a t- shot but when you get into actual tournament setups and there’s bigger rough
Tournament setup faster greens that kind of thing I think that does take a few to come back and that’s kind of what I saw with them that’s why I’d be worried about I mean I’m worried about Daniel Burger anyway at $88,000 considering he hasn’t played in 20 months or something
Like that MH but but that’s probably one of the main reasons why I wouldn’t go to him uh but he’s coming in he’s cheaper and even lower owned than will Z Would was last week and I know that we all I mean will Z has been a great player
Daniel Burger’s been a better player for longer yeah it’s just so hard to quantify now when you talk about the samples like if you go on fantasy National right now and you run it for um last 50 rounds on a Burger’s the best it’s like wow that’s insane but if you
Realize what that actually is then you’re like okay there’s a problem here so you got to think of it from that perspective I will say too like sample size is very limit I know it’s results oriented and Sample it can make sense coming back from an injury but like I
Posted this tidbit out the day of the tournament last week or close to it said one last tidbit he’s been chipping since July will zures has been chipping since July while he was working on coming back he should have been better from around I could see the putter losing it on the
Greens maybe you’re not playing on the exact same stuff all that but like again I just think it was a bad week for that the rest of the stuff was okay I think it could be fine we’ll see where it goes this week but now down to 7,900 it’s
Another decision to be made maybe you you knock the rust off in your back I don’t know maybe he needs a couple more more weeks but I mean I wouldn’t have liked him here anyway at full strength right like I wouldn’t have liked him last week at full strength I wouldn’t
Like him this week at full strength I don’t want him in birdie Fest right but okay and I knew you’re going to say that and Kenny said the same thing to me but that’s what my I’ve said that point forever that’s why I literally never bet
This guy and made fun of him for ages was because of that but we were talking about him at 9500 9800 9700 now we’re talking about 7,900 with a week to knock off the rust everyone wanted to wait and see didn’t go well missed the cut but
Guess what Adam hadwin missed the cut last week too going to be popular this week it’s back to his course he crushes here Desert Rat so to to kind of spin it the other way that yes it is a very small sample there’s only you can only
Glean so much from it then you have to try to project forward why that was what that means and well he could have been chipping for eight months I do think it’s a little bit different when you’re in the midst of actual tournament play you need to make this chip it’s not just
Practice anymore and then like listen benan makes that putt all week Grayson makes a 40 footer in his face and all of a sudden he gets [ __ ] rattled misses a four-footer it happens things they get rattled up definitely something to that like the the Twitter conversations
Around people saying like oh is he you know gonna be worried like will Z is he gonna be worried about you know that now there’s a cut on the line and all this I don’t think he cares about the cut the dude has money and he’s fine when it
Comes to that but there has to be some sort of mental aspect to it where it’s like okay I’m back now it’s a lot on the go but he has nothing to lose either like if he doesn’t make it move on to the next year he’s just rehabing and
Getting back so there was that point as well I think is good and leans more in the favor of other things you’re saying where it’s like that also matters it’s like he it’s not there’s no pressure for him to go and win this week or something like that he’s just going out getting
Back into the groove and getting back into to full swing so we can get back to where he was before so let’s talk about the highest owned players of the week I’m pretty sure it’s going to be JT post at 99,100 bucks that’d be my guess everyone’s betting him everyone wants to
Play him on DraftKings and it makes a whole lot of sense I do Wonder though if he hadn’t shot 61 at the Sony let’s say he shoots I don’t know 67 and he comes t36 or something instead of sixth place yep what do you think that the ownership
Gap would be do you think it would be the same do you think it’d be a lot lower because everything kind of points to him here he’s been fantastic and opportunity he’s gained we know he’s a great putter he’s had two top 10 the past five years at this course things
Are pointing towards him I understand the love for it I’ll probably F fade him but that’s me yeah I think it still would have been close I mean I don’t think that it’s not enough but it it’s definitely adding to it so let’s say 3
To 5% I don’t know like it would people were still going to be getting into J JT poting here think I guess use this to look at it the other way then the guy that’s 100 bucks less than him where do you think people stand on Kirk this week
Because he was crushing for three rounds again off the win and just had a bad Sunday and now it seems like people don’t love him as much as Poston and Eric Cole right there even some Clark love but probably not much I know you like them but I’m just saying that like
When you see that range I think JT Poston and Cole very popular I don’t know if people are going to continue on the Kirk train but it’s kind of the opposite effect of JT Poston JT Poston has the one great so JT Poston was fine
All week I shouldn’t say that but it has the huge Sunday round goes super low versus Kirk has a horrible Sunday round but the first three were solid so where where do you think people come in on Chris Kirk I I think it’ll be probably
Half of what they come in on JT Poston I objectively like Chris Kirk better yeah there’s lots still pointing toward dude could not make a putt he used up all of his putting for his first six rounds of the year and it all came crashing down
Over the weekend at the Sony it was horrendous how bad he was cuz I mean he almost cost you a bunch of moneyy by missing a that that’s like a six-footer at the end that I that was another would have just sealed it because there was
All there was like a train in front of me of teams that if he makes it it would have been the birdie points plus it would have put him under 70 which would have been all four under 70 the bonus so you’re always grinding us you’re always grinding something at the end you’re
Always sweating it out so it’s the way it goes but yeah it was he could not make a putt on on that Sunday especially but I believe even Saturday was pretty bad for him as well so he gained and Thursday was even worse for him uh so he
Gained all three rounds on approach all three rounds on ball striking three of the four Rounds Around the green he lost two and a half Strokes Thursday putting he lost 1.1 on Sunday and almost one on Saturday like that’s not typical C he is generally a good good putter I me we see
It with Denny too another guy who withdrew this week like if Denny’s not putting he sucks like he’s objectively bad at least Kirk when he’s not putting he’s still good at other things so now if he can just continue with his hot approach play which he’s had at a course
Where he’s played really well over the course of his career I I don’t see any reason not to go back him yeah agreed and that kind of funny you said that cuz that was the other angle of like the the world I forget what you called it in the
Newsletter but the Taylor Montgomery the spin usually he’s I think he’s like maybe the best putter in this field now that Denny’s out but it’s the idea of last week he couldn’t find a putter but he was all over it ball striking so what
Do we see Carri over here and what if he does find that putter then it can heat up quick yeah and I don’t even need him to do what he did last week with his IRS I think he gained over seven like he doesn’t need to do that again that would
Most certainly be nice if he was able to do that again he would probably win if he gain seven strokes on approach and had one of his Spike weeks but if he can just gain like a stroke per round and gain four strokes on approach and then
Have one of those because I I put it in I think he’s gained over six Strokes putting in four of his past 14 starts and it’s been over three Strokes putting in nine of his past 14 so if he just has his typical above average week that he
Normally has on the greens all of a sudden especially at a tournament like this where approach shots are easier it’s going to rely it’s a [ __ ] putting contest I heard A wise man once say that about this tournament why I think he is a wise man after everything
He’s pulled off in this past month and a half or whatever but yeah I I definitely agree and that’s why I said I I I bet him when you post him the newsletter I didn’t think of that fully I was talking about a bunch yesterday and then I just
Saw it I was like all right I’m in because it’s what you said and people don’t think of it from that perspective where it’s the same in Showdown people always say this oh there’s no way he’s going to gain three three and a half Strokes putting again that’s why they
Say like if a guy’s hitting on approach and not gaining with the putter they want to hop on him but when someone gains like almost four strokes yeah he’s probably not going to gain four strokes The but I agree but what if he gains one
And a half or two it’s still a really good day he’s still really cheap and people just naturally go the opposite of that in Showdown it’s the same thing you’re saying here for Montgomery it’s like we don’t need the seven strokes ball striking we just need three or four
And find the putter again that he usually has and it could be a really good week especially at a very cheap price so uh moose is adding a bunch of tools to Fantasy National like in the upcoming weeks there’s going to be like a complete redesign make everything
Smoother and then one of the tools that I want to put in like I think opportunities gained was a really good stat that he implemented um I’m actually trying to we’re trying to come up the name for maybe we can Workshop this one basically called like Spike round mhm so
You can so we have like rounds gained on the field that’s one of the filters that you can go through see how often you’re above average in the field but how the other one I want to put in is how often are you top 10% in the field in a round
In a particular stat because I think that is very valuable and I think with when you would look at Taylor Montgomery you would find him probably the best him I mean he hego might be up there too because he’ll just get nuclear for he made nine birdies in a row with this
Event last year and just like you’d see him pop up like he might be in the bottom 10 a lot of the time not Montgomery higo but when he putts well like he can’t miss right and so I I think that would be a valuable one to
Look at when you’re trying to project outliers especially for Showdown yeah the spike rounds like you talk about are huge EVR types the Bas the guy like you just mentioned like there’s a lot of guys like that that you’re going to get that potential rounded of them but that
Would be a stat to help you find it out a little bit easier and be very helpful for something like Showdown but again when you’re getting uh three guaranteed rounds are in no cut events it’s also nice because you might only need two of those rounds out of the four one of
Those rounds to go really low with streaks and Eagles and things like that that really start racking up the points right it’s not necessarily finishing position it’s what what the what are the points they put up along the way high variance to figure out who’s going to
Make the Eagles and birdie streaks but it does matter it helps helps a ton do you have any particular take on Showdown this week because I do I think just uh what are the two courses uh linta linta and Nicholas so Nicholas I think is the best because the eagle rates on the
Power fives at the Nicholas course are all above 4% so there’s technically four Eagles available for every for everyone in the field that’s the one drawback to The Stadium Course uh because when you look at the lowest rounds of the week like a lot of them are going to come at
The stadium course like The Stadium Course isn’t hard it’s just you can make a 78 at the stadium course where that’s almost impossible for players in this field at the other two like the Baseline easiness of the other two is much higher than it is at the stadium course but the
Stadium course is entirely getable you just have to avoid the six water traps which fits similar narrative we brought up earlier going going to Showdown which is where you’re going with this is why try and find that Spike round on who’s going to have it on that course when you
Can just stack one of the other two courses or mix them both because a lot of people just like to stack one and not play the other even though the other two are very getable and more likely to have th more more of those rounds versus
Trying to find the the spike ground well I think it would depend I think you would want to look at the round one Showdown ownership to see how that goes because I do think that there’s because everyone kind of knows this that there’s the two easy courses and the quote
Unquote hard course The Stadium Course where they play two of the rounds where the Sunday round is going to go that I just think there might be massive leverage on taking good players at the stadium course who might be wildly under owned I would still revert back to my
Previous statement and what I taught you on the other stuff and avoid because trying to Peg it it’s fine but there’s going to be a day because of the TV window where Sheffer Xander Klay Tom Kim it’s probably going to be Saturday that all playing the stadium course so you
Have all the best players on the field at the quote unques hard course like just take Sheffer at that one so I’d argue that that yeah I would say I would be with you at least on one side of it is if that on that day I call him like
Five ones I know that’s usually an NFL showdown topic of talking about like Five Guys from one team one from the other I would pick five guys up and then try and Peg in like let’s say I pick four guys that day on that course that I like and it’s not just necessarily
Sheffler KL Etc whoever’s on it but there’s five there’s four guys that I like based on who they are the ability to beat up a course like that no matter how hard people think it is and the stats that I have on them so far where
Then I would be able to put them in you could put like a Max of one and then you mix those guys into your lineups with some of the other ones that you think are going to go super low on those other courses so I don’t hate it from that
Perspective because you are right there’s the day that they all show up there and get it and we used to have to deal with this Pat when we talk about weather even for the main week remember if there was ever weather at this course we were talk about which course do you
Want on the windy day and your harder conditions in this and all that you could actually stack early on but um first Showdown I like your second point there for sure definitely would mix them in that day okay let’s build some lineups let’s do it so
Uh the recap of last week we’ll do that at the end we’ll do that we’ll do that when we pick our new teams at the end okay so we’ll just talk about the other lineups first I was going to say something about that when we get we’ll
Build some CU I want to get a sense and build them through with you to see which ones that I like I still want to do that I was going to see if we should go to a draft at the end the winner gets first
Pick oh in a draft and So you you’re up one- nothing so this week you get first pick after we talk it through and then you also are talking through your process of your lineup you’re like well I’m going this guy but now I’m going to
Need to find some value cuz I did that I can Le if I want to leverage off of you and say okay you’ve got two of these guys I want to do this it’s I think it would be interesting but like a snake we we’ll do a head-to-head draft okay at
The end after we talk I’ll continue to press my record to undefeated let’s go Sheffer Xander kley and sunjay are the ones above $10,000 Tom Kim is 99 we can throw him in there we can throw Justin Thomas in but it’s really Sheffer Xander Klay are way above the rest and then a
Tier level in terms of pricing sunjay Tom Kim Justin Thomas like sunj at 101 might well be a part of the 9k range versus the other guys that are in the upper 10 or 11s do you have a preference between the top three do you want to use
The top three at the scores because we do eventually see all the top players like kind of up there in the end like sheffler plays this tournament every single year he plays well at this tournament every single year he just he’s never won it so that’s a problem
He’s finishing the top 10 once is a third 11th 25th and a cut I don’t like sheffler here because it is a putting contest I think if we’re just going to try to figure this out no Sheffer for me and he’s gon to hit it to three feet and
He’s gonna make you look stupid he’s probably going to come like ninth and he might win he might win it running away if he has a good punting week but that’s a stance that I’m willing to take no Scotty sheffler yeah that’s fair and I
Think too it’s like you said it’s one of those things almost like uh let Russ Cook in the NFL and then he never does it’s like one of these weeks one of these weeks he’s going to get it and like he’s still has not found it enough
And even there was a event it was what was the previous event to the last one where it was like there was still a couple rounds there that were really bad with the putter even though he’s hitting it tight so I I understand where you’re coming from there I think Klay will end
Up being the most popular here at 108 I I would tend to agree because a he’s the cheapest and B he’s the one with the like really good course history here and if you do want to play that desert narrative or desert narrative as some people call it uh there’s only so many
Desert courses on the PGA tour obviously Phoenix would be one of them so that would Point towards Scotty but kley and Xander both played well well there too there’s this one Paul Meadow that I went and looked at actually had like an extensive Crossover with this course who
Was in that one like who who are some of the guys that popped hego was the guy who won Hatton came in second but like Hudson Swafford came in second who won this tournament twice hadwin was up there there was a bunch yeah no that’s
Good I didn’t I didn’t look at the one I like looking at stuff like that even if it isn’t the tell SCI it’s just might not be anything but it is interesting just to compare them over I was chuckling because you had the Harry Hall dessert Narrative of he’s the one yeah
If you just misspell it a little Harry higs does have a top 10 at this course so it could be dessert narrative who are the uh the bigger men on tour do well here slow rounds you’re not really pushing the pace yeah it’s a very uh
Could be nice for people out there Klay yeah probably the most popular and I think he’d be the one that fits into the optimal most likely like could you see Klay M lineups here or do you think people go Klay and then drop down to like Poston let’s start it I think it
Would be Klay let’s I think Klay Poston is your most common start this week that’s just me thinking it through based on what I’m seeing ownership numbers but I want to see the rest of the lineup goes because I could see if you don’t like the bottom end of your roster with
Can’t lay and Poston that that turns into sunjay Poston real quick yeah because it’s interesting if I plug in Eric Cole right after those two because I think he gets popular as well it’s or even if you go to uh drop down I think the money’s still going to be bad drop
Down to Adam hadwin for the course history in the desert you’re still down to 7200 and change for your final three spots I don’t think people love this bottom 7K range I just don’t know like what what do you see for that well let’s go through it and try to see where
People are grab itting towards pretty early on down in that range uh SMY Baden Hout Ben Griffin EVR is getting a lot of love I like EVR this week so how much is EVR again he’s 75 I think we could put him in I definitely think people like
Him I mean Matty Schmidt is getting some favorite love I like Matty Schmidt this week but I don’t know if that is a fantasy National people listen to the show know I like Matty Schmidt they look into him a little bit more they’re like oh he’s
Played well here kind of thing and some of the stats that you look at be it Pete D or whatever kind of have him at the top because he has such a small sample I just like the way that he’s been playing yeah it’s it’s fine I mean again I don’t
Think he’s going to get too popular anything like that or you have to worry about you know if you want to play him play him I think it’s like you said I think it’s going to be EVR and SMY look like pretty popular value plays early on
Sam rer as well yeah what’s how much is he again 72 he and Schmidt are both 72 after that like kazy Ryan Moore will pop pretty well here I think if anyone’s doing stat modeling like I think optimals will point to Ryan Moore uh because he’s
6,900 bucks and he fits with these top guys and the stats just look great from him what about Montgomery versus putam if people landed there where do you think they roll I think they’ll go with Montgomery and even though I I think it’s going to turn out to be a lot like
What you said with hadwin or who was it uh baa no last week with you you you went with putam and everyone went with who senson senson where you thought that you were going to get a bit of Leverage on putam because Fenson was clearly going to be very highly owned that just
Turned out they were both super highly yeah in the king of the desert they’re built over 50 in the main though uh senson did get some late steam he popped almost 15% when most didn’t have him for that but senson did still get to 20 or
19 or something but I just think they’ll both be owned so in your lineup here Klay Poston if you do EVR small and Rider it lands you on Montgomery or putam okay so that looks like a build I could see happening here and then we can
See how we can flip itan royan you said SMY SMY gagged the Cutaway by the way Not only was he the guy that could have brought it to minus three he didn’t even make it at minus two what yeah I forget what happened was on like 15 or 16 he
Missed like a two footer or something and then that caused all this down that was your uh oh yeah I had to get that digging quick of your optimism on your your thread out there where you’re posting everything oh but don’t worry if this happens it can get to a two and in
My head I’m like the only thing I don’t want is it to get in every post you made I kept feeling closer and closer and I kept refreshing data golf to try and see the live predictive line I’m like oh man Pat’s willing this thing home and then
Kenny hops into the mix too all my friends are out there just talking well it’s funny cuz I didn’t want it to be minus two I wanted it to be minus three but you know I’m just I’m doing I’m just saying what’s out there just saying what’s happening exactly yeah so 72 yeah
That would land you on Ryder you would get between like Ryder Schmidt Stevens had a good week last week do you have any feel for mat pavon I mean I don’t I don’t think i’ would be chasing it but yeah he had a great week last week yeah
And he was T5 in the DP World chore Championship to end the Year too like he he’s a real guy oh yeah I’m I’m okay with that like if you land there and you want to go to it’s fine like basically since the swing season started he had a
Bad start to the swing season on the DP tour when all like the best guys were playing so Wentworth he didn’t play well at Club National France he missed the cut then after that starting with the alred Dunhill links Championship you know T6 he won the next week in Spain he
Was T9 the next week in Spain after that two bad ones inar he made the cut but he had a bad one in Qatar top 15 in South Africa top five at the DP World Tour Championship top 10 last week I just thought he was interesting and I don’t
Think anyone is going to go to him yeah and I think it’s because people don’t want to chase so if you think again you’re going to get some leverage there for sure and if you’re comfortable with that it almost reminds me of $7,100 Ryu last week I I don’t even know how he
Ended up finishing I know he was in there for a minute like he obviously he played pretty well made the cut and was fine but I said lot of putting I yeah I saw that too like that’s whatever but I think a lot of it was people talked
About him but I don’t think many I don’t think as many people ended up actually playing him and that would be something like this where you would see people mention um pavon but but I don’t know if they’re actually gonna go there so and I don’t
Think they will I I would doubt that they would play him as well to kind of take a look at what we had last week with him yeah he gained on approach gained almost five Strokes putting terrible driving ball who’s this Ryu okay yeah that’s what he finished do you
Have that there T30 yeah so it’s like he’s still in the mix people are happy that they got that outcome from it whatever but this would be a similar play here at 7200 but I think that lineup looks like something I could see being in place what’s interesting is if you do
Drop Klay to M that’s what I wanted to see what does it look like if you drop can’t lay to M you land on Eric Cole so it’s sunj Poston Cole EVR SMY Rider the three value plays that you pegged as most popular or likely very popular and
Then it gets you Poston and Cole with sunjay I I think this is what people will be comfortable so I already swapped out Ryder for mty Schmidt yeah that was the first thing I did and if we go to the this upper stage like I I okay do
You think people will be more likely to upgrade Montgomery to Eric Cole or upgrade SMY to someone who’s $8,000 or below because now you have put like you can play putam and Montgomery so what’s that one look like that would be IM Poston Montgomery putam EVR Ryder
Schmidt whoever you wanted at 7200 bucks so I I have to take out smaller ryer to bump them up right yeah I actually have to take out SMY yeah SMY 73 so I need him cuz no one’s going to want the uh the burger man how did Jagger play last
Week let’s see here oh crushed again did what he does I mean you could take out you could take out Ryder and play Jagger because uh he made another cut I think he finished t18 he did finish t18 and that was the argument of the Willie Z
Thing for this week again way different injured just you know going with the bit now but the thing about Jagger the bit was that like Kenny was going on other people saying the same thing he just makes Cuts that’s not good enough did not end up on a winning lineup or
Anything that I saw but my point was again he’s you got a factor in the price he was 8,100 last week finished 18th scored okay it’s like that’s you you don’t need him to do the top five thing and really Crush unless you’re paying the premium price that that was one of
The lineups that I was worried about catching me there was a Steven Jagger lineup because he was in the other split I was like oh no he gets number nine to finish not 18 like no one was making Eagle on 18 but everyone was making
Eagle on nine I was like if Jagger makes Eagle on number nine I might be screwed here I wasn’t make I don’t know what he ended up making on it but I was just like because you start running through like every because you can’t even if you
Look through the 20 lineups that are behind you you don’t you have like a general sense of who can catch you and who can’t but then you see like one weird outlier lineup you’re like how the [ __ ] is this going to work yeah like just just go away let’s see here real
Quick I just want to see so that would be IM Poston Montgomery EVR putam Matty Schmidt you could turn puam into Jagger that upgrade Schmidt to SMY if you wanted to so shank Jagger couple other guys I see popping out have my early Pro ctions here so just trying to look at it
Shank Jagger and I think um James Degen 75 we did our first look yesterday we were talking about I think um people will go to T dunks as well Tyler Duncan will be the 6K guy that people kind of get interested in no thank you 6,700 three three guaranteed rounds no thank
You what did he what’s the last time we saw him probably last week he probably missed the cut let’s see how’d he do last week he was no he made the cut he was 67th yeah it’s just a problem with Tyler Duncan he’s not any good that’s probably
True true 12 birdies last week for him so yeah I don’t know it just feels like that’s where uh you’ll see it popping a little bit but those are some of the other guys I think you know landing on EVR fine Montgomery putam for sure sunj well let’s rejig this because the guys
That I like from this lineup are Montgomery and EVR so I just want to leave those two in and now we have $8,600 I think you can build a pretty steady lineup here without it Montgomery EVR just Montgomery and EVR I just want to leave those two in because I I’m most
Definitely playing those two guys this week so how do we do is anyone playing Sam Burns for one thing anyone I don’t think so early in early in the week it’s really tough to gauge I think it’s going to be very spread out again though and I
Don’t see him being one of the guys that it moves to like he’s a guy in the 9k range that could pick up a little steam but here’s the thing people aren’t really Landing in the 9k range like even I don’t even see the full Tom Kim love
Yet we’ll see as we get closer some JT but it’ll get there with Burns fena Fowler minwoo day like I I just don’t see people clicking these names so so I like wind Clark and Chris Kirk tell me the Windam Clark Story for a second what
What interests you about him like he won the US Open sure but where where Windam Clark really succeeded in his career before he won the US Open I guess he maybe he’s a different player now and like because he is a bomber but when you historically go look at where he had
Played well it was all like short courses where okay because I mean he’s someone who gets gets he’s another one like Taylor Montgomery he gets so hot with his Putter and he just makes these putts like the Honda was always a good one for Wam Clark because he would just
Kind of fire and then now we can fire at pins a little bit more I I just like him here and I think when we think of quality of player in this range you have the guy that won an elevated event at a super difficult course last year he won
The US Open had a slightly easier US Open like dude went and shot minus eight on the first day along with Xander yet now he’s cheaper than Chris Kirk and the same price as Eric Cole he’s quite he’s quite squeezed in there I mean you Eric
Cole and Poston for sure and then you have the potential of Chris Kirk where again people thought last week the you know we knew the winner would get some love from the week before versus what we usually see but maybe not that much like Kirk became pretty popular for a guy
That won the week before with an elevated price tag so that makes sense and then you I just want to get sold a little bit on the other stuff that you brought up on Clark because I would argue too Clark could also be a strength of field play here you talked on winning
The Wells Fargo the US Open these are the strong two of the stronger Fields we’ll see the US Open being one of the strongest every year and in this field he’s priced way down at 8,900 when he’s done kind of more than some of the guys
Up top just last season alone well he’s finished top 20 twice in five starts in his career at this course the approach has never really been all that good but I would argue that he’s a better player now for sure and we’ve seen the approach
Play be a lot better even at the Sentry the approach was good he lost six Strokes putting he had gained he had not lost more than one stroke putting since Riviera last year before the Sentry and the Sentry has stupid greens they’re gigantic people who haven’t played there before tend to
Really struggle on them badly and where it’s a trunk and field event everyone gets four rounds like if you’re putting p it can start going really bad I would just say that this is a pure talent play in here and I understand that Poston and Cole raid out well for this type of
Course they’re coming in with better form but I would just wiam Clark’s a better player than those two guys and he’s going to be way he’s going to be one the ownership of those guys that’s what we always talk about I love that you brought that up like the coal factor
Is look how hot he is he’s been on fire he’s been close at tournaments he’s played well at the Honda shorter course he played well at every style course really but then you have a guy that actually won two tournaments last year I don’t know if you saw yet your lineup
Here that can be extremely unique and close out with a pretty good close out is hadwin and OE with a 9k four 8ks and a seven extremely unique and you get all the dudes you like so they so the we can do that or we can kind of bend it the
Other way we can get a pH out or Fowler or hell even Poston like if like if I was going to play Poston this would be the type of lineup that I’d play Poston in as my most expensive guy and then you’d land on 7,400 you could play or 7
You could play SMY at 73 you could play KH Lee Justin Su Ben Griffin your guy you always like Ben Griffin so yeah I mean I don’t love that what if I played if I played Nick Taylor that gets me back up to the Eric Cole Lowry range I
Think there might be value with with Lowry this week that’s another one just there’s a really good player who’s sitting there and although his Strokes gain won’t get factored in for Desert courses because he never plays them on the PGA tour it’s one some on the Euro
Tour over in the Middle East yeah we oh uh you know who else that fits with uh who who won last week Tommy Fleetwood got man another win just not a PGA Tour win but it’s a it’s a win over there so I don’t know we’ll we’ll see what
Happens but that was kind of funny we talked last night Kenny and I the irony of the Rory telling Grayson Murray to play better at the meeting Rory three putting from two feet Grayson making a 40 foot bomb and winning Rory losing it’s pretty interesting to to see that
On the same day but uh yeah I like the uh the hadwin baa version with 48k guys that’s pretty unique okay so we can we can do that one that one fits perfectly or you can go minwoo Burns fena or Fowler in this lineup and you can make
It work with the low seven 71 72100 guy do you have a preference of those guys do you think minwoo picks up a ton of steam doesn’t seem like he will I think that he’s going to be good at this course I I think I like Burns or fow
More I like I mean fow listen you can always like them you can always sell anyone on fow because you can point to anything that you want to go look at i r my mixed condition model Windam Clark was number one in it by the way yeah he’s pretty interesting play this week
When you just like we said we talked about where he’s at squeezed pretty heavily between Poston Cole and even if people do go back to Kirk is there a$ 7,000 guy that you think is any good or is that sort of the cut off now we’re
Just kind of gr is there anyone $7,000 even or below that you like I don’t really have a that’s my thing about this week that makes it tougher why I kind of like that baa version of just like thinking about it because 7,400 and Below there’s not too many guys I like I
Think SMY is going to get popular I think uh you know we already talked about that maybe ecro gets a little if SMY gets popular don’t play Alex SMY there’s a tip from Pat yeah looks pretty uh looks pretty popular to to me right now as to shank a little bit so it’s
Really tough to say but I think that some of the pivots in there like if you go back to the range like Jagger gets popular but what about like Bo hosler Alex noren Taylor pendrith Keith Mitchell like any of those guys in there that you could play and getting three
Full rounds that might be a way to differentiate so two ways to play this I like your baa hadwin version also Jagger sea woop so what do we got now Clark Kirk Clark Kirk Montgomery EVR yagger sea woop okay plug this one and see and just go Pure Balance and
Hopefully it turns into that tournament from two years ago that Swafford won where it was like Paul Baron Lee Hodes like these were the guys at the top of the leaderboard not so much or have it be the year where the the secondary stars all kind of went crazy where you
Had Klay fena SEIU like that tournament yeah I don’t hate it I I like both of them really and they’re both to me early on I mean we’re getting closer anyway but they do look unique compared to what I would see the other builds be we didn’t build a chefer version but
Sheffler still pops off the page so I wonder I think people still get to Sheffer here okay so let’s try to build up the Sheffer I’m going to play this btia was it B A hadwin yeah yeah I’ll play that version as well get that in there okay let’s build a sheffler one
Sheffler so we start with sheffler it would be easier like I mentioned if there was a guy that we could agree that we actually like in the $6,000 range and well I wonder just do we like I said like what what is the sheffler build people are going with and then we make
It our own like we usually do like what what are people going to to make him work is it Tyler Duncan is it the all those 7K guys that we just had in there like the smalles the I think it’s Ry I think Ryan Moore and wow that’s weird I
Just just looking at actual lineups generated this week uh Duncan and Chad Remy R out really well I think Duncan’s going to be popular let me put Duncan in this okay we’ll put Duncan in and he makes sense with this for the version of like what we think people are doing
Because now you can get to who’ we say like SMY EVR types well who else in that range did we say was like EVR Ben Griffin SMY Baden H Sam Ryder seems to be like kind of popping out in terms of who oh here you go I found it already
Duncan Ryder sheffler it’s uh no Ryder no it’s it’s a Duncan MH are original two of SMY and EVR and it lands on Adam hadwin and Eric Cole which makes sense to me you don’t get Post in there you can make post and work because how much would I think you
Could take uh say save that one I think it’s Eric Cole and EVR and put to Ryder and Poston yep it is or you can well Sheffer Duncan SMY EVR Poston putham works and you can do that one too if you take out hadwin you’re saying yeah yeah
That could be another version of it and and it’s probably the putham or Montgomery situation we run into all the time um who’s the $7500 guy we just had before that I took out EV yeah V Rin um so that’s that one and then I’ll just
Get a quick count on these to see what they actually pop like and yeah you can’t even get to Montgomery in that one so let me just look at my projections sheffler Duncan SMY EVR hadwin Cole is by six points our highest projected lineup right now okay so
That’s the one I think people get to so it’s an it’s an 11k guy with two 8ks two sevens and a six but it’s very easily fixed by taking Sheffer down to one of Klay or sunjay or whatever you like there and popping Duncan up to Ryder for
Example and and there’s your lineup okay yeah so let’s do it with Klay let’s turn Sheffer into Klay and we turn Duncan into SMY or Sam Ryder like you said I think it was right or bazen because people like to fill out all their money right that’s yeah that’s possible to or
You said ecro let’s let’s throw ecro in but like even the one you just had you could still get Klay Poston with EVR sman ryer and then one that’s that’s what I have in and one of putham or Montgomery leave leave the hundred bucks
So yeah if we if we do and those only project like five or six points less than what we were just looking at yeah if we do Sam Ryder we can play Montgomery instead of putam which I like although it sounds like we’re into the situation where you should probably just
Play both them possible yeah we can look at that when we do our own but let’s look at this now so 10 1098 777 that sounds like very convertible to other situational stuff we talked about make a seven a six that how about we turn Klay into
Minwoo yeah this is how we started to get different I mean we found the builds that people are landing on so now if you go if you go with your guy minwoo there you can turn Poston into Clark to free up some more money because I like Clark more
Than I like poson so now we have $1,500 to mess around with here so you go minwoo Clark Montgomery so EVR to Kirk it’s SMY to Cole yeah or you could turn or Ryder Lowry or you turn one of them into baa and then you turn
SMY ah we don’t have enough money I I think you had it but we were I think you’re overleveraging turning Ryder into Lowry where you have already have minwoo and Clark and all that I think it’s like yeah but I like Lowry that’s fine and I
Didn’t even end up putting him in I’m just saying like I would go EVR to Kirk instead and then I still am super unique I I start my lineup with minwoo I have Kirk Clark no Cole I have Montgomery no putam I have Ryder and SMY fine but you
Know you’re still up there and that’s about four points off the original I’ll take uh so this is the one that I have I just swapped Montgomery into putham so minwoo Clark putam EVR Jagger baa let me look this one up so it’s it’s a
Lee Clark I have those guys putam is 8k and then it’s EVR so ryer and SMY go out if people are listening to the audio version of this if you tune in to the video version of the show you can see the lineups on the screen that’s right yeah uh so Jagger
And then baa you said that one is oo only one point off the original you like that one I do like that one so we got 9 88877 and the nine is completely unique in minwoo and then you still got quite a few of the good guys down there that
Should still have some leverage in here somewhere if not just in roster construction alone I like that it’s nice yeah and even when I built out the mixed condition minwoo Clark and Jagger and EV are all rided out excellently mainly because of Eagle rate because I weighted
That pretty highly you like baa Clark or do you like Montgomery Kirk I like them both let’s see how goes all that means is I can just do that and then swap them out right and the first one rated better actually so that’s interesting okay so
It was putham so it turns into Kirk Montgomery you said yeah there’s so many versions of this that can flip around though that’s the thing Kirk btia baa into Montgomery you still have 8,000 for putam if you wanted them yeah lots of ways you can go what it tells us is this
Xander is not getting played the 9k range including even Tom Kim may get overlooked but definitely JT day Burns fow Fowler not getting played minwoo same minwoo yeah sorry he falls into that Cam Davis Lowry Clark I feel like Clark will get the steam from anybody there it’s not going to be
Enough I’m just saying like at least we put him in and saw how it can work and you gave reasons why he can pop I’m just saying who will really not get owned but he also has to struggle with the guys being more owned around him I just feel
Like he would be in the secondary SE W probably falls into the secondary for sure uh hadwin and um hadwin and putam and Montgomery will be owned so I mean we can see where these builds are going yeah so let’s try the last thing I want to do is can we build
A Klay sunjay lineup it’s hell it’s called a Xander you can sub in Klay or Xander we just kind of said klay’s probably going to be more owned than Xander Xander could get pushed by the wayside people are going to play sunj could you do a double
10,000 build does that work and what does it look like I think it’s just exactly what we already built so it’s like Duncan Ryan Moore it’s already built here I got oh wow it projects the best by Five Points it’s Klay M we used our Duncan play that
We used to make the sheffler one work and you land on SMY EVR and it’s probably shank people go to but like Nick Taylor’s there whatever you want to call it but that’s so you can do so I Ryan Moore does kind of project out pretty well in terms of what people are
Doing so if you go Duncan Ryan Moore 6769 you can then go Alex SMY and then you have $8,200 left and you can play bti or Taylor Montgomery I don’t think anyone’s gonna play Ryan Moore that’s I don’t I don’t see that people have been playing him I played him in Mexico he
Played really well the heater continues we we might be Ryan more week because I I think you’ll get away with it here I don’t think anybody’s I I don’t personally want to play him but I think this is how the people build the builds though is if
They go 2 10ks they just Jam the sevens there’s ways to the sevens around so you can just get four in but you’re not going to get too much different like the 26k would be unique for sure if you go with that build how about Johnny Vegas
You talk about him you you brought him a pre-show I think so Johnny Vegas another one of those guys that was T2 at PA meow another former winner at this event I didn’t know what happened to him I didn’t realize he had like retired for a
Year or if he was injured what the hell happened to him but he’s $6,600 this week like I would prefer to play Vegas over Tyler Duncan he missed the cut last week too he did and he gained Strokes off the te he gained three Strokes on
Approach in two rounds for a guy who hasn’t played well or hasn’t played in a really long time dropped a stroke and a half around the greens dropped four on the greens now he sucks at putting this we know but you know he’s won at this tournament before desert golf specials
Played well in Phoenix over the course of his career too just something about this style of play and I think one thing that I would really like we can put in a less than driver type thing but some guys still hit driver anyway at the stadium course in particular particular
There are forced layups so some of these guys that you think are a bit more Wayward off the tea if you’re just exclusively sorting by accuracy their accuracy is going to improve this week because they’re just not going to be hitting drivers every single time and
Once you get I mean one thing that Vegas does at an elite level and still does like he always had is generate Eagle opportunities and when you get them at linta and you get him at the Nicholas course where eagles are up for grabs he can make them yeah one thing I’d say
$1300 more you get the a guy that missed the cut last week too Willie Z Talent play just move him on that’s a good segue maybe to the uh the crusher that was you against me head to-head obviously that sucked do you have any other ones you want to build yeah I do
Because I I I think I’ve put EVR into every single one of these uh of note Nick Taylor is exactly the same price and I will be let’s here’s you know what instead of trying to pick between them what if we play them both Nick Taylor
EVR I just want to try to see if I can find some of my guys I just think the thing is they all fit the same build that’s all I needed to know like we know where we’re Landing now so if you pick those two guys it’s instead of shank and
EVR you play Taylor and EVR instead of shank and EVR you play Taylor and shank you can do different stuff there for what people are doing but we know where people are landing on these builds I think there’s you know you got to find ways to get different here this week via
Construction I think looks like everybody’s landing on the same stuff or 2 V2s away from it that gets me on F now but gets me off of Clark mon I’m just trying to trying trying to see if I go Taylor van royan Montgomery what I can get myself into
Here what if I just go Bia that leaves me with 97 I could play day or minwoo do you like day at all not really I like your minwoo take do you like Burns at all not really because I like mwo more yeah I also really like
Tom Kim this week I mean we didn’t build a single lineup with Tom Kim in it but I do really like him like I could see starting my lineups if I could okay so here’s the one I just built just because it has Taylor and EVR in it Taylor EVR
Montgomery Kirk baa and minwoo so minwoo as the N you have 29ks 2 8ks and 27ks but they’re both 7500 bucks um so I’m going to enter that and I’m going to flip this back out have that same construction I’m G to take EVR out I’m going to
Take baa out I’m G to turn Kirk into Tom Kim and now we’re stuck with 7500 maybe EVR goes back in or one of those plays near the bottom be it’s like your EVR Ben Griffin or something that you can fit in or we just go Vegas who I just
Mentioned just see what’s going on with him now we’re back up to 84 probably don’t even need that much I was going to see if we could just put Jagger in what does that leave a 71 who would it be at 71 your boy Ben
Ben Kohl’s boom let me see how bads what what do we got here so it’s minwoo read it top of the bot minwoo Tom Kim oh yeah Tom Kims in this one yeah Kohl’s Kohl’s Montgomery and Jagger at 8179 and then Taylor Montgomery Eder and Nick
Taylor now oh I have a I have a variation of this that I think is actually a lot better now that I look at this this is 14 off the original that would make sense because there’s no elite elite player like Tom Kim is your most elite player in this right yeah so
Enter that and now I have are you importing it again just taking a couple guys out yeah I’m G to import it and get rid of minwoo and drop him to Windam Clark so minwoo goes to Clark so minwoo goes to Clark it already projects better of course it has wind
Clark in it CL and then you can take Ben Kohl’s up to EVR Ben Kohl’s up to EVR and then you can do whatever you want from in here uh you can go putam baa instead of Jagger Montgomery you can keep Jagger Montgomery and leave $200 on
The table you can take Jagger you can turn Montgomery into hadwin if you wanted to um you can just kind of play around with that range yeah yeah I see that one too so that’s again that’s the the thing about what we’re noticing is a lot of these builds
Just there’s just 2 V2s off of all them because we saw like it was that Cole and someone is now posting 76 and 73 is popular so it’s like that’s the difference between 88 and 9100 with Cole and Poston people can make that move if
They are up the board a little bit it’s that $800 or sorry $700 that you get from Klay to M maybe Tom Kim ends up being the leverage there even though we thought he was going to be super popular to start the week and people bet him
It’s like maybe it works out that sunj actually comes in more popular based on everything else so we’ll see he set the record last time out so people are talking about that for sure and he’s he finishes t11 at this event every single year yeah which is as we know one or two
Strokes away from they could all be t5s or all worse but he’s definitely uh found his stuff and he’s back in and so I could see that happening if you had to bet one of those guys like I said I’m between kind of like I know that sunj
Has the worst odds but he’s probably I me there’s a reason that he has the worst odds between minwood IM and Tom Kim I I got sucked into Tom you got sucked into Tom cuz I don’t really care because I don’t want to I don’t think I
Don’t I don’t know we’ll see how it looks with the leverage and everything at the end of the week who knows where I end up and we’re going to do a draft and maybe end up on him but I’m saying like I I just felt better with the BET to
Start off and people got him at 28 and I got him at 25 I think he’s down to 20 20 or 18 in some places I saw now so I took that and woohoo clv we’re good if Poston wins people are going to win a lot of
Money this week yeah but I saw everyone bet posting I saw everyone bet uh who was the other got JT I think a lot of people bet JT Justin Thomas yeah really I think he was almost 30 to one yeah that’s why guys who don’t play in Hawaii rarely
Win here it’s true 13 to the last 14 Trends hashtag Trends let’s draft a lineup me versus you do you want to review last week you can do it if yeah throw it up if you want yeah well I won so every time that I win we will review
It every time that you win we will pretend like it just never happened cuz that’s the best way the winner gets first pick is the best way to do this that’s deal there we are so that you’re you get bragging rights review rights if you want them and you can uh have first
Pick in the draft and that way we’ll end up on different guys but we can talk through different constructions why and see what happens this could be a fun experiment so Paul do you have the lineup from last week there we are oh with the money in the background course he does it’s
Almost like he’s your producer and you told him to do this and have it ready just to drop it on oh he just did that on his own valtion I wouldn’t even worry about that so you I mean it’s funny because you kept it very close with me
Despite having Willie Z cuz this was the L lineup that I actually played in the big 150 as well uh Kirk kind of scumbagged me towards the end Nick Taylor missing two 5 foot putts on the back nine wasn’t super helpful that I mean this lineup that I played against
You was six to six everyone was minus three or better at that time um and it came inside the top like 5% of the big 150 what was your total points again I I can’t see it from here my eyes aren’t that good I I usually like you know have
A look at it but I was just curious but if you don’t know that’s why I was just wondering if my lineup that I played my main King of the desert one that ended up moving on if it would have beat it if I had just played
53350 so you would have got me I think I was 522 so I would have advanced in King of the beach with my main lineup no king of the desert actually King of the desert sorry King of the desert actually that’s the other one I bet you they
Probably have some nice desserts if you make it all the way to the end oh they do yeah because DraftKings has that new sports book now out on there whatever we G to get some tickets to get into that either way I’ll be down there for that weekend if anybody’s down there it’s
Going to be a fun time our crew the degenerate 75 crew we’re all going to be hanging out pop stroke the casino at the course I was going to do that too and I was like hey I should do the show from draftking the draftking sports book in
Phoenix they were like no you can go [ __ ] yourself they were like yeah no thanks Pat we don’t want you around take my hat off no so I will start the draft with Taylor Montgomery will be my first player all right I’m gonna take Patrick Hanley
Okay does that mean you get the next pick do you want you can do it that way or we can just go back and forth we can go we can go snake draft style all right I think people like that better to so let me have a look here and
See I’m going to take I’m going to take guy we didn’t talk about I’m gonna take uh bo Hustler really so Bo Hustler interesting because I I thought this would be like a great course for him too historically it has not been not that you care about that but I know that
People will look into it overall past 24 rounds fourth most Strokes gained in this field in general he played really well played really well during the swing season he had a second place finish at the Zozo if we talk about desert courses he was t7 in Vegas where Tom Kim Won he was
15th in Cabo those were his final three starts did not play last week but when you take a look at his American Express he’s missed the cut three of the past four years and came 50th and just he can’t get his approaches going like whatever it is at this because The
Strokes game is only from The Stadium Course just sucks at the stadium course yeah don’t know why maybe this year he goes nuclear there and we have a good week maybe he needs to get himself into Pebble Beach where he blew it one year the the Tom hogi won blew the Houston
Open that year too that helped me out a ton remember uh Ian poter beating the chest getting the Masters uh mistake that he he fixed up so what do I want to do here so actually it’s your pick so you know you went can’t L Hustler yeah
So I will go I like evier so I’ll take evier and then I’ll go with Windam Clark so Montgomery EVR Windam Clark is my l up right now two picks to you with Bo Hustler and whoever and Patrick hlay so with the way that these two lineups
Are shaking down right now I’m very clearly building a balance build type lineup the one that I had kind of preferred when we were talking through the lineups and because you have Klay you’re G to have to take a SMY uh Rider someone from this lower sevens I think
Just with the way this is shaping up to get back to that range that you like to be in yeah or because you haven’t taken any of those guys in the mid-range right now I could do that and then just figure out my values after which is what I’m
Looking at right now but I think um for the spirit of just having a pick ready I think no I think it’s good you can try to block me too yeah like you already have some of the guys in that range so it’s kind of just ends up like getting a similar type
Build so I’m trying to see if there’s anybody above that I would rather go to I just don’t know if I can I don’t know if I’ll feel comfortable getting there let let me try this I’m going to take no I can’t do that I was going to
Think about it but it’s too too aggressive you can get aggressive you took willly Zas take him again I’m gonna take sunjay okay sunjay so you’re going double $10,000 so you you got sunjay to pair with kle and Hustler now where are you going Duncan uh actually I’m going
To drop down and I’m going to trust the uh the shipet nation course fit rankings and go with my guy Matthew nemith played pretty well last week he pops in the rankings for us this week decent in the projections still so I’m not against it
And uh I’ll go with him he’s 700 as a t dunks pivot there people want to go to T dunks this week you can go to Matthew neith same price so n Smith or Vegas I think would be the two n Smith I’m taking Smith n Smith probably a bit more
Reliable I bet you that if I do put in this like Spike percentage or Elite percentage per round his Elite percentage in Iron play would be off the charts versus like the quality of player that he is yeah I didn’t see uh how he ended up I think the weekend was bad but
The first couple rounds were okay and then the other thing is that he played in Hawaii last week so so Vegas would fit that but I’ll take my chances with NI Smith trust the rankings n Smith finished last of all players in yeah bad weekend bad weekend yeah he he finished
A t80 he actually had a pretty decent swing though 25th 42nd 15th it’s been a while since one so he made the top 15 at the Zozo in that condensed field when do you think the last time he had a T20 before that was I’m looking at it so I
Would be cheating but I was looking at something else that you brought up was the spike round was in the last four weeks before or the last four events before before that he played he had 63 65 66 65 66 like all kinds of those rounds so it’s like what you said you’re
Just hoping to get a couple of them here and have him be your guy at 6700 over another guy like T dunks and I need it to make Klay and sunjay work so he was T15 at the Zozo in Japan during the swing his previous top 20 before that
Was at the Zozo the previous year he was T9 and finished second the week before that in Vegas so we’ll take it one to look at so it’s back two to me two to you two to me so I have Montgomery EVR and Windam Clark just want to see what this looks
Like here if I throw him in and I throw him in what do I have left ah I’m $100 short I can’t do that damn it I will go with if I do that and that what do I have no that’s not enough just trying to
Trying to work through how I want to Cobble I mean the people can see it on the screen what I’m trying to do here with my final three picks but you can’t see it so that’s the important part okay I’m gonna take Chris Kirk and I’m going to take
Baa and I am going to take these are your final two picks I got to own you with your own guys I’m gonna take Ben Griffin okay okay and matu pavon oh mat pavon you should have Tak Matty Schmidt no it’s fine that would have been the guy I’m
I’m going to use I like the uh the case you made for pavan’s a real dude he might be I mean I didn’t even think I made that case but I said he could be a real dude well you listed all his DP World Tour results which are very good
So so that so I have $8,300 for my final player uh I’m between hadwin putam and Jagger so I just put a title on mine so I could see it who are your guys now I know my projection and I’m going to see what yours is how who do you have so far
Montgomery EVR yeah Windam Clark Chris Kirk and OE are Clark Kirk OA that would be the ones and the final pick at this price tag of 8,300 I’m going to forgo hadwin oh man really should I do you need to go crazy here you got a pretty good lineup yeah
You’re right I I was gonna take Jagger over hadwin but I’ll take hadwin for this one all right and I’ve got you by 11 points in the projection all right well that’s good thing that uh you know we don’t just play this game on spreadsheets that’s guys actually have to go play
It’s like clv and projections don’t even matter sometimes so good good thing about that I talk about all the time but like projections we we did this in the NFL season I don’t if we talked about it yet for this PGA season so I’ll mention
It quickly now but like we use these as sort of a guideline right there’s obviously just a piece of the puzzle it’s not just you know have projections and win that’s not how it works but you can learn a lot from the projections and typically Pat that’s how we’re learning
A lot about the ownership game of figuring it out because if the projections keep jamming somebody into the lineups you know that people that are going to use projections are just going to take that Finagle a little bit move it around but now we know where sort of that ownership lands you can
Help use the projections and still make uh good lineups against that that’s what we’re trying to do here roster construction correlation if there is any with courses and weather and then obviously leveraging the field based on not just players and pivots but also roster Construction in
General want to take one last look at that P Meadow thing okay because I did this last week because I tried to I threw it in the newsletter when I made a whole bunch of those different models uh and the two that I looked at for last
Week just to try to find outliers at the bottom and it’s funny because the answer ended up being um I looked at Bermuda and one other course and the Bermuda guy was Carl Juan who was just like oh that’s weird um just short Bermuda courses like where do the scrub players
In this field play not against the elite guys who could pop up kind of thing he was one of them so I was I just want to see if there’s like a we’re not thinking about that could be one that might tell us something it might tell us nothing
But it might tell us something so he swafford’s obviously on Liv so from this Fields doc redond playing this week I doubt it so heigo Hadley Vegas were the ones that popped up lipsky and EVR both finished inside the top 10 as well and then inside the
Top 20 you have Bo Hustler your guy Sheamus power would have been a part of that crew um Scott piery Danny Lee some more live guys and that’s kind of it just it wasn’t a very strong Tournament Davis Thompson was t35 finished like second here last year or something like
That trying to see if there’s anything else I I don’t have anything else I did have a note usually I keep notes each season and in my phone and for some reason my note for this tournament got deleted I don’t know how that happened
But uh it kind of tilted me a little bit that was one I was looking for but it did have something to do with when there was weather here and it looks like this year not much weather so that’s going to be a good thing as well but yeah I can’t
Anything else on this one yeah it’s always tough trying to project like you said trying to project out the weather between three courses some of them are in Canyons some of them aren’t blocked by mountains that oh yeah then like wind reactions all this other stuff comes
Into play it just gets beyond what you you know probably too advanced to even mess around with or or too uh sort of over sort of you’re overthinking it too much that’s what I’m trying to say yeah of no I mean with Sam Burns Sam Burns has played this tournament four times in
The past five years uh he’s made the cut three of the four times with a t11 T6 and t18 that range is definitely un overlooked I think that’s what we’ come to the conclusion that like low besides posted almost everyone in the nines and high eights Cole it’s funny that with
All of the name power that’s there and maybe that will affect it by the time people actually make their lineups are like I could play Eric Cole or Ricky or feno and right now it looks like Cole is gonna be like double what those guys are
Which is kind of crazy yeah Windam Clark you already brought that one up I think Windam Clark and Lowry Windam minwoo Windam Clark Lowry and Sam Burns some combination of those four guys I think is going to be critical this week you’ll need two of them I don’t know
Which two it’s going to be Lowry would fit this mold for sure wam Clark fits this mold who’s is there one more guy in the sevens that’s like you think is just priced wrong like I guess your Nick Taylor argument could be true like he was yeah Nick Taylor’s
Priced better on DraftKings like in terms of pricing than he is like because realistically if Montgomery is 55 to1 to win this this tournament he’s $8,200 if I even think that Nick Taylor like Nick Taylor I think should be like 75 to1 to win this tournament not 150
To1 but that would just place him right around step Jagger at 79 like he’s not wildly mispriced I think the number at 7500 is better than his outright winning number I mean this is the guy who’s won three times as well like when he has his good weeks he’s really good what about
This one then this is like the disrespect lineup but there is some reasoning to it but you go with uh you start with Sam Burns he should be priced higher Windam Clark Shane Lowry and then you don’t like this but it gets ugly but burger zalatoris and last week’s winner Grayson Murray
These are all disrespectful prices for what they are and what they’re capable of it’s just whether or not they actually come through but I think that would be an interesting one to do and just to think about like that’s uh you know if you’re betting on talent and
Long term versus this week what’s going to happen uh we talked about some of these guys in the bottom of the 7K range and a name that kind of popped up as I said the people are going to play but there’s probably good reason for it is
Baden H like on paper this is the bazen H course it’s just fire at a bunch of pins make a bunch of putts and your distance doesn’t really matter you just have to hit Fairways which he does and he played pretty well post playoffs last year like he wded from the fortnet then
Took a couple weeks off came T6 at the Sanderson Farms he was T9 at the Joe Berg in South Africa he was t17 the week after in South Africa played in South Africa again was third place that was against like Louis and the Liv is so he’s not completely EDI for he just
Hasn’t played yet on the PGA tour in 2024 could be a pivot off of SMY there as well Matty Schmidt’s the play same price yeah I mean there’s a bunch of guys like you say you could make a case where Matty Schmidt would be one of them
Pavon you talked about Michael Kim if he can he was thankful for for Joel Damon there last week for sure like that I’d like to if Michael Kim could someone get in touch with his people I would love to have Michael Kim on the show he probably
Would do it he’s folling I was saying this last night with Kenny but he’s trying to it’s like the the maxom formula it’s like now he’s becoming very likable on here his posts are still some are funny some are informative goes with that he’s hoping to get that uh the max
Run like I do the course research show every single week even if like you know Mike Mike’s got some time 20 minutes on a Tuesday I will talk to him about the next week’s course I can add that into the research show of a guy who’s played
The course and is currently playing in the field I think that’d be cool everyone should tag him and just say hey you should go on with Pat you should go on and talk about some of the stuff your stuff he just preached it on the show
Today go to this Mark or someone can clip this and then put you on there and show him that hey we like your stuff post under one of his recent threads and see if you can get them on and be an awesome guy to have on your show now
This needs to be like the cold open because people would have had to last to an hour 23 into the show to hear this which they won’t so you put this to the start so I put this at the start I like that lately that’s a good move yeah I’ve
Been having fun with those yeah it it’s less honestly it’s less fun with you and I cuz you don’t say completely insane things like cus does yeah I don’t think I’ll be up for that a W anytime soon but it’s fun watching those guys being up for it because that’s part of the
Enjoyment we all love but yeah it’s good stuff I like it well let’s try to keep the heater going let’s do it carry it on so if you don’t qualify for King of the Beach how much do you win 5,000 same as you won last week okay so that’s that’s
What the Min is currently if I qualify the Min is it’s a 15ers live event where last place is 10,000 first place is 500 but you get the free trip to Fe and the trip and all I mean I’m already going so it won’t be much I’ll probably just you
Know be at the event now instead would be for it I want to go there and win the money but I’m already going to be there having a great time excited anybody that’s down there or wants to go or is already there whatever is welcome we’re going to be posting out an itinerary
I’ll post it right out where we’ll be at we’re covering drinks food things like that having some fun with it shipit Nation putting it on with degenerate 75 little collaboration we got going there it’ll be fun basically shipit Nation dgen Friends of the Mayo media Network minus Pat Mayo
Yeah you should still come down there’s still time I’m going to Aruba that’s right I forgot about that good trip for you as well yeah my wife wasn’t like you know you should go to Phoenix before we go away for a few weeks yeah so you need
A little getaway before the getaway yeah get away before the before I come back be like oh my head hurts I I would actually go I’d probably have to leave before Sunday to like guarantee I got back so I can make my other flights CU
You know if you like you leave it to the Monday and I’m leaving on the Tuesday I might just get stuck in Phoenix plan for it we’ll see we thought of an idea for like a big uh uh season launch party for NFL next season that could be fun right
We we doing here we in Helifax novva Scotia I highly doubt it we should we should do something here we can invite everyone here like I I mean depending on how things go I I’d like to have Kenny up we can do the show in studio we get
Fineberg down we can record here then we can go play like cabat for two days or something that’d be awesome if we do something like that I think obviously the President’s Cup is something people are excited for it’s in Montreal obviously we’re going there that but um
That’ll be fun to get like a a trial version of what this looks like get the entire crew if we can together I know Kenny dying to go to that I’m sure fineberg will be going everybody else and do some shows from there stuff like that should be a good time all right
That’ll do it on the pat Mayo experience if you want to meet up with Tambo and Phoenix you can do that you can probably get in the door if you use code Mayo at chip ination because not only do you get the 10% off you get in that draw for a
Free year or season long pass to the PGA only product so I recommend that you do that fantasy national.com Mayo get you 20% off she said we’re adding some brand new tools very very soon so you want to get in plus you can just use the product
As it is like I use it been using it every week for S years and I won $5,000 last week so you could too if someone as bad as me can use those tools and win money imagine people what you could do with those tools and the listeners
League is now open so please go play in that thank you all for watching I’m Pat Mayo I’ll see you next timeo experience experience
6 Comments
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SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
2:02 Lineup Recap
7:30 Lineups Construction Strategy
16:18 American Express — 3 Rounds
22:16 Will Z/Daniel Berger
25:55 Highest Ownership
31:44 Showdown Strategy
34:38 Lineups
1:08:17 H2H Draft
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Had a great weekend, 602 was not bad. Thank you for the information and thoughts Pat. Good luck this week.
Thank you Pat and Tambo!! Enjoy it every week.
You Guys Are GOATS! I love M. Kim as a Bomb. However P. Kizzire and Pavon i like and its because of the Swing 5 narrative. Theres only 2 events left and for them to get into Pebble they need to Play well.
Great stuff as usual!
Great podcast. Love to see MK on the research show