The Hawaii adventure is finished for another year and we now head to California for the first pro-am of the year across three courses. Join The Drive duo Geoff Fienberg and Andy Lack as they preview the American Express 2024.
In this week’s show we’ll break down the best picks for the tournament including Geoff’s brand new ‘spray and hope’ betting strategy with insight from Andy on Tom Kim and Si Woo Kim as we search of another profitable week on the PGA Tour.
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[Applause] Hello friends welcome back to another edition of the drive brought to you by odds Checker I am Jeff fineberg and with me is Andy lack Andy boy we’re both we’re both trying to catch a bouquet this morning you with Keegan myself with Benny on we’re both Brides Maids I had
Sah at the at the first one so two in a row you think I’m seeing the board clearly but I don’t feel good about it today it just felt like a a kick below the belt big time we’re off we’re off we’re back State Side the American Express I experienced the gamut of
Emotions on Sunday as well I I would just say from a and I’m sure that you were straddling the line between that Cowboys blowout and the golf on Sunday it’s a great day of sports overall but just from an ey test perspective Grayson Murray for me was not whatsoever passing
The ey test in terms of I just didn’t think that he was going to hang around and so I actually pulled off the very rarely seen hedge on the other guy in the playoff that didn’t win something I rarely ever do but I was just like look
Benny has that dog in him he’s statistics Stones like I see it for him I’m going to pull the rare put some of my Keegan exposure on Benny and let it freaking ride with this gracing character who was driving into moving traffic in Bermuda a year ago okay I was
Driving into palm trees on the 18th hole it was the rare it was the it was the rare it was the rare uh half hat on the one guy who didn’t win so anyway you know later in the summer it’ll feel like more of a blur you know you sort of
Take the body blows through golf season but this early in the season it’s a real body blow it’s a real body blow but um hey responsibly we’re here on off the mat uh we’ll get going at the MX historically you know it’s been dominated a bit by John ROM but we’ve
Also seen some huge underdogs here it’s a three course rotation it can make tracking the event a little Annoying uh it can make betting the event a little Annoying Andy I’m one that really this I could argue is my least favorite you like I’ll take the team Zurich over this I swear to
God yeah these golf courses um don’t have a lot of character to them they’re pretty generic as far as it gets in terms of setup for tournament play and you have to deal with the added wrinkle of you’re going to this three course rotation as you mentioned two of the
Three courses don’t have shot tracker which is just wild to me they’re spending $150,000 to have all the rookies go to Hawaii for some orientation but you’ve been going to the same three courses in Palm Springs for a decade and two of them still don’t have shot tracker um so
I agree with you in terms of a bit of the malays after a fun Hawaii swing but I think there’s some opportunity on the board I guess we should probably start with the very top um Sheffer 6 Klay 10 Xander 11 um I’ve made this case with
Xander before or or sorry I’ll start with Sheffer I’ve made this case with Sheffer before I am just going to wait until Tory Pines Bay Hill Riviera for Sheffer because he is getting priced the same way at those courses that actually accentuate his skill set the same
Pricing that he is this week at putting contests that accentuate what he is worst at so what could probably happen this week with Sheffer Jeff is exactly what happened at the Sentry he’s a walking top seven but the reality of the situation is that this is a putting
Contest and so if he can’t get himself to at least a neutral putter he’s going to finish T5 and you’re not going to make any money on your outright betat I I’m gonna be snobby golf guy golf betting guy here for a moment I I just looked right through the top Andy
I looker can’t because I could make strong argum I know the case is there I know the case is there but I don’t know I’ll just you know I what I’m trying to say is the snobby golf guys like you take your six you take your eight times your
Money that’s like when you I give my friends props we hit some first touchdown betat in in football you I don’t know I’m here to try to I’m try like spraying hope spraying hope is is my is my ax strategy I think spray and hope but I get it
Can yeah I was going to ask are you not worried about a little bit of an overcorrection from the 150 to one Kirk 350 but I don’t play that deep I don’t play that deep I just mean like it feels like betting in general right now with
Spray and hope right right and you know what and I should honestly even when you feel like you know what you’re doing outright golf batting is always a bit of spray and hope but um and and I I hear your point but I’m not going that far
Down the board I’m just gonna try to more like the middle but I’m skipping the top for you you have uh I in on kentley I’m skipping the top two I’m not doing Xander I’m not doing the disgusting Brothers this week either I’m going right past them and I’m so I want
To talk about the 20s cuz I haven’t made a move yet but I’m circling it strongly sunjay Tom Kim Justin Thomas okay um I think there is a move to be made here I just haven’t made it yet so I’m curious if you have any strong inclinations with those three guys uh my
Lean would be Tom Kim okay would be Tom Kim but I like them both I’ve been kind of swimming around I’ve been kind of swimming around um sunj all of them even as well that one dropped a bit JT I totally get he’s here he’s starting his
Season he was in at Sentry we’ve never had by the way never had a a winner making their season debut at this event in the last eight years since it’s been on this three rotation and as reasons and for you know when we bet golf you’re
Trying to narrow down a card three four four Five Guys six guy whatever it is what you’re almost looking for reasons to not bet a guy and that stat is almost trend is almost strong enough for me to okay but I I believe trying to bet JT
Early at a big number is probably a play because you know take the chance that he’s ready out of the gates it could backfire but I’m one of those that I I see myself investing in JT early this season I don’t know that I’d get to here
For me it is it is Tom kimh uh better bet this week Jeff jt25 Burger 50 zot Taurus 100 JT I don’t even think it’s close that burger number it’s gonna flirt with 80 or 100 before we go off it it better because it’s sort of
Like zat last week Burger’s 80 by now yeah no one no one touched it the books did not take a a single scent on Daniel Burger today um so I’m not surprised one bit to see that happen to his number um for me it’s more like right behind those
Guys um bet Rivers has an enhanced win only 40 on minw Le the 35s on JT p uh Poston Andy I know you were on him last week he feels so safe here like yeah got to my head I had one bullet and you had
To say it had to be over like 25 it’s crazy it might actually be JT for me I could see why people love Eric Cole as a course fit or Jason day and even you know I could I could name a few more like Chris Kirk who did everything but
Putt last week you think could be perfect here so I’m more in that sort of range trying to find my my winner Andy but I have made a couple bets yeah I bet JT Post in at 35 to1 um I don’t feel great about it because he he at the same
Number as Sam Burns and Tony fedal uh two guys that are very very good at golf um probably within the top 10 best American golfers in the world but JT has he has done everything in ter I me’s Fifth and six in his first two appearances on this specific type of
Golf course right Jeff um on these high greens and regulation putting contests uh JT Poston is every bit as live as any other player that you want to roll out on this in this field these types of courses suit his specific skill set very well so there’s one side of me that says
It’s really hard for me to stomach betting him when he’s in a Range that I don’t think on name value he deserves to be in but I’ve been on him I’ll feel way more pain if I hop off at a golf course that is a perfect fit for him so I’m
Just going to swallow the 35 on on JT and and hope for the best it could be a natural let down spot um it certainly there’s a part of me that’s saying that but I think about the pain I’ll feel on Sunday if like the most obvious guy that
I’ve been riding for two weeks straight um does it out of course that’s perfect for a skill set um you’ve had that pain before we’ve all had that pain before and so you know the question for me because you do have your guides like JT not Thomas um or you could be going
Double barrel JT this week candy uh but you do have your guys like JT Eric Cole who really are like perfect course prototypes but at the same time you feel like maybe you can buy that type of player at like double the number like a great poter who’s
Who’s an ideal an ideal course fit be it say you know Adam hadwin like 65 to one maybe that’s like a bit of a stretch but um and maybe like a real real Poor Man’s version of some of these players in like 100 to one like you dare
I I know we’re skipping but like uh I’m looking at a guy like Justin Su 120 to1 and when I do that I’m like well he’s like the poorest man’s version of that like 35 to1 player that is very popular I mean Ricky Fowler’s 65 guy we haven’t
Spoken about exactly and Ricky Fowler’s been amazing at this golfing California guy he it should work well for for Ricky I know we’re kind of all over the map I am it doesn’t take much from me Andy like I only need to see the smallest forms form of sign of life to
Be back in on Taylor Montgomery ohh man you do it to yourself led the field and approach last week I can’t I can’t with that guy um but godspeed my friend yeah um I I’m off in different directions let the Fielding approach last week best value out there could be
The numbers we are seeing on a player like a Windam Clark or a Tony feno any interest in now we’re talking now we’re talking okay um listen Jeff we could get to Saturday and it could get leaked that wendam Clark is the newest member of Legion xvxx
Iixx um but I don’t think that he should be 50 to one no matter what and let me just say also since when is contract because I got a couple questions about this and in the Discord uh this morning does the Windom to live rumors make you
Sour on Windom and I thought about it for a second and my answer is no and I’ll ask you the question Jeff since when in in in team sports if you think about team sports since when is contract negotiation like a bad thing like we watch cam Smith negotiate with Liv for
Five months win the Open Championship and multiply his asking price by 5X like do I care that Windam Clark is playing competitive golf tournaments while he’s negotiating with Liv no that might be a good thing maybe if he wins the AMX he’ll be able to ask for more money so I
Know there’s been some Windom smoke this morning I don’t really care I think he’s a great at a big number like sign me up 50 to one past MX winners there’s a lot of live golfers John ROM Hudson the SWA s daddy so there’s yeah there’s the US
California us open connection too with the no so um I’m not surpris Windam seems like such a in an outright game where it seems like it’s really hard to get anything we’d even consider Fair the numbers on Windam I’d see really fair uh as low as 35 on that odds Checker grid
Seen 50s out there as well on the grid so make sure to use it get yourself the biggest number if you want to bet wind Clark or anyone else we got to give it the time um long shots anything big I mean we’ve been we’ve been in Long Shot
Season here Andy uh do you want long shots who are who are pin stalkers who can’t putt or dudes that just roll it so pure with they’re shaky in other parts of the board because that’s sort of my debate I like team nut usually right
Right me as well but this is a golf course where you could probably argue just as easily for for the inverse of that the one guy that I have bet is Alex SMY at 110 to one and he’s been really to run with SMY right was
It okay I’ve got some first time first time first talk us into it let’s go yeah um one of the best ball Strikers in the field through Thursday and Friday at the Sony missed the cut on the number played the final three holes at Yi and two over
Par which if you were following the Sony that’s Dreadful because one of those holes is a super easy par five but I love playing guys that hit the ball great last week but the results may not show it right they’re coming off a miscut at the number and now SMY heads
Back to a golf course where he gained eight Strokes ball striking last year um he’s got a 22nd and a 25th in two appearances he’s over 100 to one one of the better iron players in this field still he can score um just get the putter going and I think Small’s live at
110 SMY as low as 90 on the odds Checker grid as high as 125 coming out and hit that yeah so that’s yeah some some big numbers I uh Nick Taylor Andy 130 on the odds cheer GD as low as 80 uh that’s one that I
Guess they’re kind of all over the place but that 130 coming in at FanDuel I did you know sort of give a shout out to Adam hadwin um maybe it is Nick Taylor who uh actually should be the Canadian of choice this week a great a great
Sunday charge of course um you know feel feels like it could would suit him suit him quite easily I know we were big on Tom hogi last week a California three course rotation proam 150 to1 as low as 75 to one uh wow I know I’m Shing out
The discrepancies but 150 on FanDuel 75 over at bet 365 that’s why we use the grid here people because if you’re going to catch a hope and a prayer with Tom hogi you better do it at the biggest number yeah um easy sell for me on hogi
I met him last week he missed the cut on the number in it very excruciating fasten um same argument with hogi in terms for what we argued for smly right Elite iron player at a big number we’ve seen hogi actually finish second at this golf course in the past six two years
Ago as well so uh hogi at 150 uh I’m gonna make that I’m gonna probably make that bet as soon as we log off my friend all right so for me Andy Tom Kim Taylor Montgomery Nick Taylor players you should certainly expect on my card uh I
Know you’re in on Poston what else Poston wendum SMY are the only bets I’ve made I am yeah yeah I’m circling the wagons between sunj and Tom um gotten some you know some Whispers some wind blowing that that sunj is feeling really good right now he was outstanding at
He went he over Saturday if he literally just kicked the can down the road a little he is right there with those guys I don’t know how he did that um that one over Saturday how do I know so much about it sounds like a guy who lost a
Matchup on him on that Saturday yes I did um but yeah so Andy’s gonna make that decision check it out he’s gonna have written work over at odds checker.com as well his with his top plays this week for Andy I’m Jeff feberg we’ll be back next week where are we
Tori there it is I’ll be there on the grounds our boy Andy La Tory worried the field might not be what we just a weird world where Tory Pines between the ROM stuff and the schedule scary to think you have some good players at the top playing this
Week and then it goes Tor Pebble Phoenix so I could see a lot of people skipping Tor because you have backtack elevated events right after it which makes no sense but we’re getting into some big tournaments you mentioned Pebble you mentioned Phoenix Riv is coming around the corner as well in
There too we’ve got you covered here at oddschecker.com uh I’ll get us out again hit that like smash that like hit the Subscribe Bandy I’m Jeff we’re out Yeah
2 Comments
how the fuck did Cam Davis lose this tournament gsus christ
You guys need to learn more about golf.I was gonna subscribe but no chance