Spencer Aguiar, Byron Lindeque, and Matt Miller preview the 2024 edition of the Sony Open golf tournament with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.
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Roo balla family we are live and back in action for the Sony Open Roo balla PGA show the second going of this illustrious and wonderful PGA podcast we got Spencer agar sitting at the bottom over here doing his thing looking wonderful looking cheesy I am happy to be on the
Show with you again this week Spence how are you today I’m doing well Byron how was the tournament for you last week I saw that you had a slight profit yep I made turn my $100 into $368 so we are we’re off to a great
Start for the year even after a s l call it you know but those uh those t5s I’ve been betting each ways have been great so I’m happy yeah 0.81 units of profit for me so I little bit of profit goes a long way you know
It’s what we talk about it’s a long season it’s it’s a marathon not a Sprint so I think that’s something that you’ll hear from us a lot on this show absolutely I mean it’s particularly from you and I so I know mat Mills is a lot better at hitting outrights than I am
And he’s our celebrity guest for the Roto baller clang today Matt Miller how are you on this fine Monday evening friend I’m doing well thanks for having me on it’s uh good doing a show with you too Byron I think this is our first time doing a live show together so looking
Forward to it yeah it’s I think you you were Spence is one of his first shows ever so it’s kind of like the full circle you know Matthew MCC situation here and hopefully we can get an all right all right all right at the end of
The week so we got the Sony Open I am looking for some Redemption I want to get the winner in the circle this week and I’m kind of curious as to what you guys think are the most important metrics for the week let’s take a quick
Little peek at the course try and figure out what the most important skill set each of us are going after this week and I’ll start with you Spence unlock the course for us give us one key to winning this tournament this this week I gave a nine and a half minute
Answer last week I I’m not going to do that again I will keep this very simplistic for everybody out there so I think when you look at Yi what for me and at least according to my model proximity from 125 to 200 yards does seem to be that key range 67% of the
Total shots are going to come there that’s over a 12% increase in importance versus a typical test you know there’s other things that all of us can talk about I’m going to leave it there for right now uh you guys can take it where you want from there but for me it’s that
Proximity range from 125 to 200 I will definitely second that I think that’s one of my key key areas so Matt go ahead and let us know um if you’ve got the same or if there’s a different one that you want to let the people know is important this week yeah that’s
Definitely uh one I was looking at as well another one that I think kind of stood out to me um little more simple but just uh Str g t green I think kind of looking at different um different ways of guys W I mean some guys got hot
With the putter some guys were you know really good with the irons but one thing that kind of remains consistent from the winners over the last couple years is they were all you know kind of in the top five STS Game T green see let it
Last year Hideki was fifth um two years ago so it kind of just seems like one of those things that you you really have to do well if you’re going to win this week yeah and I’ll kind of just um lean into that even more and just say I’ve I’ve
Really been looking at guys that can drive the ball well one or another if you’re accurate go for it or if you’re just a good if you can keep it in play and gain Strokes off the te distance wise I feel like I’ve seen A variation
Of guys you know with great results that have hit it close you know and narrow type situations nice and accurate and then bombers off the course um have also kind of managed to just scrap their way around this venue I think this is wide wide open this week with the with the
Ways you can win this thing you know there’s multiple Avenues to success not so much like we saw last week can can I ask you a question uh just about what you just said Byron because I agree with you I think that if you have distance
You can take that route if you’re an accurate golfer you can win that way um you don’t need to give the whole nuts and bolts of what went into it what was your split roughly between accuracy versus distance for you 5% a pop I went 5% off the T 5% distance
5% um accuracy and then 5% strug gained on shorter courses under 7200 yards so I’ve got 20% off the tea stuff and just across the board so we’ll see how that pops across the different models and I’ve got like all sorts of random guys on my outride card that kind of fit into
Every single one of those buckets right so like there’s many ways to skin the Sony cat and I think it’s going to be it’s gonna be fun how did you how did you wait it Spence uh ever so slightly geared towards accuracy over distance not not a massive difference for me but
When I took the total driving so I do it a little bit differently than you do when I took my total driving number it was 63% of that total driving weight came from accuracy 37% towards distance I then added in some of those you know wonky statistics to it when we’re
Looking at G percentage and and I also have a pretty substantial weight in my model on Strokes gain total at easy courses so uh I was curious of how somebody drove the ball on an easy course and that’s I look for accuracy and distance with that answer and with
Shorter courses too I I think that’s another thing to look into there but um narrow Fairways like if you saw kaaloa last week you had all that undulation you had all the wide open feel like the only similarity between these two venues would be it’s in Hawaii that’s pretty
And maybe it’s easy I guess like that’s the two similarities that you have yeah and you know I think kind of going into that I asked you last week like recent form versus course history how you going to roll with that like which one you
Going to kind of wait more I feel like this week outside of Augusta this is the next most correlator course on the PGA tour schedule so course history and Charles how III are basically you know you can set your clock to that guy finishing inside the top 20 and just
Adding to his bank roll every year but how are you looking to to embrace course history versus recent form with coming off the break yeah at with especially guys playing in this full field now that haven’t teed up since the RSM we never played at the centry yeah this week I
Would definitely Le course history over form like you said I mean even looking at models and stuff looking at the last 24 rounds 36 rounds for some guys that’s going all the way back to October um so I don’t think necessarily stats from three months ago is indicative of how
They’re going to play this week um and for me I mean it’s not just course history but I think you guys kind of touched on it too kind of um how they perform at similar style courses so I’m looking at kind of short courses under 7200 yards what kind of guys play well
At some of those crossover courses um Sedgefield was one I looked at you know for sure and there’s a few others as well that’s uh something that I’m weighing you know more so than than for this week perfect Spence I’m assuming you’re in the same boat there yeah like that’s
A very similar answer that Matt just gave that I I would give during most shows like I comp courses are I’m more of like a course specific nature and trying to find similarities between this course and where players have found success it’s going to be that same thing
Short par 70s the easy scoring venues uh that’s like that’s 20% of my model right there that’s about as heavy as you’re going to get yeah I know I crank mine up all the way to 20 as well because I mean this this is the only second opportunity
You have outside of Augusta to really lean into that and then of course we get the influx of corn faery to a guys that have just got nothing to go off of and there’s multiple guys with no course history so it’s going to be really interesting and and one of the guys that
Doesn’t have any course history that’s at the top of the leaderboard yeah that seems like an ideal course foit for pretty much every single place he teas it up at apart from capala is lud VI gabber and he’s sitting at the top of the leaderboard J 14 to1 boys um 16 in
Some places let’s go ahead and tell me we’ve got four guys under 20 to1 so the the options are much limited compared to last week but if you were to say someone is not winning this week Spenser who is that person I feel like this is a trick question because while I don’t
Necessarily like the odds on really any of that group I kind of think that they are the deserving favorites um like if you look at Oar hat and Fitzpatrick I don’t know there the fourth Henley at this point with the movement that sure I would say those are four of
The I mean for me it’s four of the six favorites so I I feel like if I’m giving a name of somebody that I don’t want I would be doing them a disservice at this point um who’s least likely of the four to not win this
Week this is going to turn into a clip that I did not want uh I promise I would clip it I’ll say Hatton but I mean I I think that they’re all like I said they’re four of the six favorites absolutely I I will second Hatton so
Matt what’s uh yeah I was going to go Hatton too I’ll I’ll kind of flip the the answer here a little bit I’m not taking any of them outright but I’ll say the guy who scares me most to win out of that group is uh Fitzpatrick okay so I think I would you
Know one of the other three I’d say Hatton probably the the least likely out of those three to win but I think Fitz uh in my opinion is the one that kind of scares me to win it out of that top group would you say it’s because you’ve
Got like some some flashbacks of of RBC Heritage at Harbortown where he just kind of went rogue and I think gained more Strokes in that week than his next third fourth and fifth best career approach metrics combined that’s that’s definitely part of it um and I think he
Kind of showed some signs last week uh you know he played pretty well over there in in Hawaii um he’s kind of coming in fresh so yeah I think a combination of those thanks Spence um do you have handy how big these greens are I can’t quite remember if they much
Because I think Harbor toown is like for Fitz he’s not necessarily got the best proximities historically and I think the fact that they have such small greens there really came into like they they made his his margin for error much smaller and his ability to like fire at
The flags like forced him to go after them and and ultimately had one of his best approach rounds ever um that week this week I feel like the greens are still a little bit bigger right um compared to at least harbort toown or so
So I’m kind of curious as to if if that helps or hurts him a bit more I always think with Fitzpatrick and players that are maybe not as Stellar with their proximity game when you have to hit a bunch of Greens in regulation it’s always going to be one of two
Things happens either they hit the greens in regulation and they end up winning the golf tournament just because their proximity is going to naturally be a little bit closer in some of those spots if you miss here I think you’re dead in the water from the very start but um I
Think Fitzpatrick is one of the more intriguing and I think I would give this answer about Oar also nobody is going to want it seems like from early cards I’ve seen put out in the space nobody wants to go to those two names and I kind of
Think whether we’re talking from a DFS answer or even from an outright perspective there’s an Intrigue for me to want to get contrarian in some of those DRS I agree with Matt I did not bet any of those names that I talked about but if we’re talking specifically
DraftKings for DFS right now I kind of think that the $10,000 plus range might be the way to get different just because there’s going to be so much popularity in that $9,000 range with the Connors and the Henley and the Poston and the Kirks and whoever else you want to throw
From that mix absolutely we’ll get into that just shortly when I ask who’s Gourmet and who’s cray cray but until then we’ll let that marinate for a little bit The Gourmet section Maddie um give me someone over 50 to1 that you think’s going to win this
Tournament I’m going to go I’m gonna go down the board here I got him at 70 to1 earlier today um he doesn’t have you know the the form recently coming in but got a little bit of a break I’m gonna take my guy Keith Mitchell 70 to one and one thing I you
Know I talk about this decently um you know on top of the course history here he got four top 25s in um six starts his best finish is seventh for whatever reason Keith Mitchell you wouldn’t really think of it with kind of his prototype but he plays short courses
Really well and going back to 2022 last year was kind of a pretty bad year for him but he had a good year in 2022 and his finishes and courses under 7200 yards he was t7 at the Sony T12 at Pebble Beach T9 Honda cut a Wells Fargo
T7 Adan open T6 Travelers and t-54 Windom so that’s five top 12 and seven starts in those short courses so even though he’s like kind of that long header off the te he’s kind of one of those guys you want to play on shorter courses that’s where he has his best
Results his lone win came at PGA National I know that’s kind of you know a lot more penal than what we’re seeing this week but you know for whatever reason he kind of pops on these shorter courses well he’s extremely accurate for how extremely long he is he’s kind of
Like a a more Southern chubbier version of of O with Kashmir right like there’s definitely a lot to to be desired on that on that um the rest of his game but like I said if you’re gonna start a domino might as well start off the te
And give yourself a great look at at a makeable approach shot kind of thing every single time so I love Keith and particularly I’ll kind of just jump off that as well and say first round leader for sure he’s had two really good first rounds at the Sony in the past so I
Think you kind of take a look at what he gets up to as the tournament goes along he kind of plateaus a bit but if you kind of looking into getting into some Keith Mitchell love I’d also go first round meter there same situation Spence
Yeah 50 to one plus you can tell me who’s going to win right I think I know where you’re going to go so I’m going to try to get a little bit different than you I I think the name that you’re going to throw out
There and if you don’t throw it out for whatever reason I will then name that player cuz I think he is very much in this mix but I’m going to take Adam Fenson um I got him at 70 to1 one 12 consecutive made cuts a Seventh Place finish here in
2022 top 10 in my model when you look at the short easy courses when you look at the projected weighted weighted scoring in my sheet I I did think last week that when you look at caloa for him I don’t know if that was necessarily the best
Venue I don’t know if that’s indicative of where he’s actually at with his game um it just so happened to be on my outright card and I’m not saying that this is like the only way that you can approach it but do think players that
Teed it up last week have a a little bit of an advantage that they got in some reps coming into this tournament and I thought spencon was one of those guys that maybe didn’t see that price increase just because he didn’t show what some people would have wanted from
A high-end perspective but this is a much better course fit for him yeah I think he’s he’s one of those guys that doesn’t have a ton of distance off the te but he’s really solid from like 175 an out like you know and I think we’re
Going to see a lot well 150 an out as well I think he’s he’s a very Unique Kind of prototype and he suits this course phenomenally and you know like you said there’s a good bounceback opportunity what what was his odds again I got him at 70 yeah so that was that’s
A nice one so currently sitting just around the 50 Mark there so still within our realm I’m going to go out and say that Lucas Glover is sitting at 6061 on I believe that’s bet River’s book and 50s somewhere else so Glover is the guy that gained the most Strokes on
Approach last week in a field that had Scotty Sheffer in a field that had Colin Mari cow in a field that had Victor havland the old glove man was just doing his thing on the greens leaking oil like he leaks armpit sweat and it was brutal
But at this venue I’ve seen his putting stats aren’t terrible he’s lost a little bit but not like what he did last week you know like he tends to figure these greens out a bit better now he’s flying on the broomstick I’m looking to get some positive Returns on the pting
Surfaces there especially with all and the multi I mean this guy’s going to give himself so many birdie looks and I grabbed him at 75 to1 this morning you know like that was nuts like I feel like he’s won twice recently I feel like he’s hungry again and to strike your irons
That well and you know I feel like this course is going to reward that again so definitely definitely going to be looking to play him um dive into yeah just really I think you can still find him at 75 to one on points bet um that
Was a price that ly moved very quickly in the space and um that was who I was talking about as the second name that I was going to say number one in my model and projected weighted proximity for players like him oxay batia kind of gave
A very similar answer for me I didn’t have an outright bet on him but he was another one of those names that if they could just be neutral to a little bit better with the putter I I think they have legitimate win Equity this week on this course that is going to reward
Their ball striking exactly dude and I that’s he does it we’re going to get that over and over getting it from those guys they they just need to sync the putts and just do it for four rounds and then we can hopefully Relish in that Ambiance um Craig cray or Gourmet
Baby Matt this is going to take a look at the DFS board now kind of north of 8K tell me is there a number out there a price on a certain golfer that you feels cray cray or you can lean into the Gourmet and say o you know that’s little
Expensive but I’m willing to take on that price tag because I believe the results can pay it off and this is akk range you said above eight above eight uh one for me that I guess CRA I’ll go with Craig cray um I’m I’m out on Wills alot torus for the time
Being um I just I mean obviously tremendous player but until he kind of shows anything coming back from that injury uh he’s like kind of a permanent fade until I till I see something from him I agree that’s cray cray $9,300 I think he’s like 30 to1 on the
Odd on the odds market like this guy’s can barely walk you know like anyway um Spence cig CR Gourmet whose name sticks out to you I’ll go with the Gourmet here um I’ll say Justin Rose at his what is he 8200 I I he I think when you look at him
Specifically he’s one of the big Market Movers of today inside of the outright market now for DraftKings to me he was probably $1,000 plus underprice of where he should have been inside the top 10 of my model this week for proximity between that 125 to 200 yard r that range that I
Keep talking about inside the top 10 for me in weighted scoring weighted Strokes gain total his historical performance on these short par 70 venues I think the 61 that he shot at the sentury on Sunday has created this little I I wish he didn’t do that like that has
Unfortunately created ownership and has moved the price but to me this is good chalk at the 88,200 price and I to me like if he would have been 9,500 I would have liked it more because I still would have played him but I I think he’s underpriced for that reason
Okay yeah I mean I’ve been a victim of the Justin Rose I mean I was like 60% on him at the Lac and then he did that like he he’s that’s what concerns me about him is he’s got these rounds in him that that was probably one of the most
Variant displays of golf we’ve seen in the last four days after what he did on the front nine to shoot like four over par and then go and break a cross record three days later like especially what he did after shooting for over like I just
Don’t know what he’s ever going to do takes an iron off the tea at the RBC Canadian and hits it in the water like you know like he just he just does that kind of stuff so it’s very interesting but very nice and appetizing price tag
There um my cray cray is going to be Hadi Matsuyama at $9,000 I know it’s not that expensive for a guy called Hadi matuyama who has a green jacket hanging in his closet but it feels like he’s Swinging with the green jacket on you know like the thing with mki is it’s
Just not there right now we haven’t seen a solid top 10 performance from this guy outside of Lord knows when you know like the PLAYERS Championship was the last time he had really anything to write home about and we still keep this guy priced in this range yes he’s a premier golfer
In this field but to me I’m going to be fading the crap out of him this week I don’t I don’t really care I don’t think he’s going to be super chalky either despite the good course history the the putting is just I I don’t know man it’s
It’s got out of control is there is there any Redemption on thei R RI future yeah or um is it a a train to despair I’ll let you go on that first Matt um yeah I’m kind of with on this one Byron I I mean I think maybe he
Comes back here and finds himself back at this course he has you know really good history here but um for me I I can’t get there this week you know with him until until I kind of see something from him yeahi is always best to be played in my
Opinion when he is in a major or in one of these tournaments where he’s $8,000 he’s I know that this is a weaker field top two bottom but when you start having to need legitimate top 10 Potential from him it always worries me a little bit so
I’m probably out on him also this week yeah cool I’m glad we were all in agreeance I know we had a clip last week which we really could have done where I said Brendan Todd was a guy I do not want to deal with at all and then he
Went and did that guy also went on a full on Hawaii roller coaster last week I mean he was riding the waves of every situ situation possible I mean he was in the lead it almost and then breaking I mean he broke a driver I’ve never heard
Of brenn and Todd ever having a a temper and off he did so we’ll see what he gets up to this week he’s going to be a fascinating watch as well especially with a new Drive in the back um not because he wanted to below 8 K cray cray
Or Gourmet let’s find um I’m gonna challenge you Matt with the c you went with cray cray in the first one so now you’ve got to go with cormet who’s you gonna eat yeah um I’m gonna take a shot deep here and um it’s kind of a little bit you know I
Guess Off the Wall I’m gonna go with Bobby Mack he’s all the way down to 6,900 and for me I mean I think he’s kind of a wild card this week I think he’s obviously coming here from the European tour and we haven’t really seen
Him much on these style courses um but I just think he’s kind of way too low priced for his talent level I mean we look at kind of some of the stuff he’s done against PGA competition and there hasn’t been a ton but um he played well
Last year at the at the Scottish open where he finished in second um and I think also you look at his major track record I mean he’s got 11 made cuts and 12 majors and that’s against the top PGA players in the world I don’t think it’s
You know any type of comparison to the field we’re seeing this week I know it’s not really the style that I would you know pick for him as a player but um I think there’s kind of some value in him this week where he’s probably one of the
You know he’s more talented than a lot of guys in the field I’ll say that yeah I agree I think he’s and he’s he’s a really Scrappy player you know I think he can just get his way around the course even when he doesn’t have his
Best stuff for sure Spence you went with Gourmet so tell me who cray cray in this sub 8K range that you find price is a little exorbitant for your liking I’m going to go with somebody that while the price might not necessarily be I think the ownership is going to translate as
That I’m gonna say Ben Griffin I see right now over 10% ownership for him that is subject to change we’re very early in the week I think when you hear Bermuda greens everybody always likes Griffin he has a top 12 performance here last season form was fine to end last
Year but I kind of always feel like with Griffin that when the ownership gets up it’s just better to go in other areas because I don’t know what that win Equity actually is for him there are a lot of other names in that $7,000 range for me that
If I’m going to be shooting for upside I would rather take that with Lucas Glover or or whoever it ends up being then to go down the route of Griffin there absolutely dude I and he hasn’t he’s been doing some weird stuff as well like when he gets into contention he almost
Won sanderson’s right was it the Sanderson and then you know someone someone came came through and kind of snuck it out there and I think I’m going to actually even go with that guy as my my Gourmet or cray cray but the other direction I think Luke list is playing really good
Golf right now and I think a lot of people have this like stereotype that he’s still a bad putter but he’s not he’s actually figured out the putting since the fall swing and it’s been a list of top 20s that Luke has put together that I am very thrilled to
Share with you guys here once I can put it up because it’s been like four top 20s in the last little while and it’s all because his putting is now no longer losing him Strokes it’s either gaining or just hanging around I mean we’ve got
A win at the Sanderson a t18 a T20 a t19 and then obviously last week was a bit of a rough one but I really like his chances here I love the fact that he can overpower this course a little bit he’s a really good driver of the ball got
Lots of distance and mediocre accuracy off the tee for someone like that so I’m just going to take a shot at him and I feel like you know wait until people catch up on on the Luke list train because the pting is definitely there and he can actually start winning
Tournaments because of the putter at least you know before he gets under pressure and get himself in the mix and then lean on the ball striking whatever so any push back on on the Luke list narrative there list is I mean he burned me I think 10 consecutive tournaments to end
2023 at some point I can’t keep saying the fade luk list like my numbers don’t love him I think at this point it’s one of those things where if he’s actually a good putter all bets are off yeah exactly I think he’s he’s his flaw is
Just that much higher now that he can not Hemorrhage putting fluid all over the green so Matt what do you think yeah I’m with you um I think if if he kind of figures figured it out a little bit with the putter um that’s kind of what was
Holding him back before so if he if he has that working you know at least average um I think he’s you know very much you know in play yeah no I’m excited for him you’ll see what happens one of my aites solid number Solid value on the DFS board there I don’t think
He’s going to be super chalky um Matt I’m going to put you on the spot here if I say who’s your favorite golfer this week and why who’s the first name that comes to mind well I’m gonna go I’m G to Pivot a little bit because I
Think like a JT posting is pretty popular this week um a guy that I’m pretty intrigued by overall is um Cam Davis and I actually think I kind of like that he didn’t play that well last week I think he kind of turned a lot of people off him and he
Was playing really well before that I mean looking at his Strokes gain he’s still 24th in the field in Strokes gain total in the last 24 rounds and last week he lost seven and a half Strokes to the field um so that’s kind of a show of
How well he was playing going into that but even just looking at kind of some of those comp courses that we had talked about before um he had you know t7 a colonial back in 2022 t7 at the Windam last year uh t7 at Harbortown last year
He has a ninth uh Place finish here I think he’s a really good young player with a lot of upsid so I’m expecting him to have a pretty pretty nice year this year and um you know I think he’s got a lot of talent for you know this field
Like he’s 35 to1 I got him at earlier today um I like him I mean make valid points dude and I think like we’ve said if you if you convicted on a Avenue that you think a certain golfer can get it done here rock and roll with it you know like it’s
There’s many ways to go about it this week and I think you got to really be be believing in your boys so Spence same situation for you and then I’m also going to ask you to give us your opinion on Rio huni who’s the Japanese I believe
Stand out star who’s according to my man Tac pterodactyl any thought on the DPT standard Rio huni at 7100 with six straight t2s or better in good fields and a win at the open to France eight starts ago I mean he’s looking Prime so give us your
Give us your noise on that I’ll start with the first question and then I’ll go to Rio um to me the favorite of this tournament I know that this is kind of contrarian which is weird to say I do think Oar should be the favorite I know there’s a
Lot of people out there that will tell you Russell Henley should be the favorite there are credible sites like data golf that I believe have Russell Henley as the projective favorite and Henley to me is one of the names that I have been talking about for five months
Now that his price when he was 50 to one in some of these fields was worth betting I don’t know if at 25 to1 he’s necessarily or 202 20 to 25 to one is the golfer that I want to back so thought o was the favorite I thought the
Second favorite in this tournament and this is kind of where my model got way different was Brian Harmon so Harmon had a third place grade for me for weighted scoring that’s the upside that I was trying to generate inside of my sheet he had an additional top five Mark for
Weighted Strokes gain total those are really significant returns whether you’re talking from an outright perspective thought anything 20 to1 or higher still possessed value I had them proper at 17 to W maybe I’m overly optimistic on Brian Haron this is kind of like a 2023 turnaround where I had
Haron every single week to begin the season and then didn’t end up on him at the Open Championship but I think that there’s value on him there and then if we go to Rio you obviously have to like the performances that he’s put together and everything that was just mentioned
There I think it’s going to translate into a lot of popularity that would be my only concern is any single time that you have these lower $7,000 golfers that are going to Eclipse 10% Like that’s not necessarily where I’m looking to get my leverage and I and I think you
Oftentimes if you want to play him for cash that might be a route to go but for gpp sort of contest unless I was playing like single entry with it and I’m probably still not getting him getting to him there but unless I was playing something like that I I just think he’s
Gonna be too popular for me yeah I think he’s going to be popular especially if everyone’s listening to our boy flag hunting Ian mcneel who I know mentioned that he’s in on um sits at 125 to1 I believe so there’s like some really nice odds out there for
Him too um any any takes on on Rio there Matt yeah I’m kind of with spancer um I you know I think he’s going to be popular outright I you know if you can catch a number and and you like him I’m always kind of of the opinion if on long
Shots if you like a guy and you have a reason to take him I mean he’s a long shot for a reason so you’re never going to have like a ton of things really backing a guy at 125 to one if you like something about it hey go for it because
That’s why they’re down there and sometimes it works out I will say kind of just kind of coming over and playing it’s it’s really hard to win a PGA Tour event so um he obviously has a great track record but we’ve seen some really good golfers who haven’t won yet on tour
So um making you know making that jump into these events isn’t always the easiest thing to do no it’s not dude and I mean if you take a look at like Tommy feed wood for instance that’s like the prime example right like uber talented guys what can they do I know but and
Tommy’s also won on the DP World Tour multiple times one back in South Africa shout out to the Homeland and like they come over to the PGA Tour on American so it’s just a different it’s bigger it’s a bigger stage it’s like you can win your
Track meets and then you go to the Olympics it’s totally different I’m not going to it’s a horrible comp but like you know it’s just the bigger stage right like you’re going up against some some history that the PJ T offers so yeah and a lot of these guys too not to
Cut you off are are seeing these courses for the first time correct which is also you know a disadvantage versus guys who have played this course you know six seven times H that’s a that’s a good question because this course like we said second most correlator course on
The PGA tour outside of Augusta on course history predicting success how will you navigate guys that are playing for the first time this week Matt yeah I mean I think it’s always an advantage even if you didn’t play well to see a course um I know that’s you
Know kind of often used against guys or whatnot but I think it’s always an advantage to see a course versus going here for the first time um experience always helps so that’s kind of you know always the way I look at it not to say that it’s um impossible to to be you
Know first time playing here at win but I think it always helps to have seen a course before and I think that’s why a lot of lot of the time too we see uh rookies or you know come out and have a hard time winning right away because
You’re you’re getting used to courses you’re getting used to events and you know just the whole grind of it so yeah I think experience always helps absolutely um one of the guys on Twitter asked me Evan he sent me a message he said I need your take on JJ spawn and Nick
Taylor Nick Taylor to me has always been my darling I I just love how at any moment he can just go go hard and and when he gets in the mix he doesn’t back down either he’s one of those guys that he’s playing well he plays very
Well and then when he when he’s playing bad he plays very bad so after last week I think old Nikki had a bit of a rough start but I saw some form on the in round three and round four in my late night Deep dive pod last night and I
Think it was really interesting to see him kind of catch a little bit of steam and hopefully he can bring that into this tournament I don’t know if I like how accurate inaccurate he is off the te but um Spence you got any Tak on Nick and and JJ for old
Evan I kind of like taking a shot with JJ spawn in gpp contest I don’t think he’s going to be very highly owned he had three consecutive miscuts from 2020 to 2022 did spring in that 12th Place finish last year thought he closed 2023 very strong with that sixth at the Zozo
And the 13th that he provided at the RSM I think when I view his General profile I always like him at these sort of a tests I think the weighted total driving increases for me in my sheet uh the proximity numbers like if he can hit a
Lot of Greens in regulation he’s a top 15 player for me in that area I think he can pop I think you have to be cognizant of the fact that he has missed over the last four 75% of the cuts that he’s played here but I do think that that’s
The kind of player that I’m looking for in that $7,000 range where there’s a profile there and there’s a statistical backing that if they put it together they can find potential at less than 10% ownership so I like him um Nick Taylor I guess I’d give a I guess my
Concern with Taylor would kind of go to what you were just talking about Byron where he’s a very volatile golfer and if the ownership is looking like it’s going to be a little bit further up there and maybe that’s subject to change I would be slightly worried that you get the bad
End of him and you know if you take him at 12% or whatever he ends up going off at like that’s just detrimental for your week there of you’re trying to find Value in that range so uh I’m probably going to be out on him and in on spawn
But as we always talk about contest selection is going to matter let’s see where this ownership actually Trends over the next 24 to 48 hours it’s really easy to go on a show on Monday and say I’m completely out on somebody and then all of a sudden 48 hours later we’re
Looking and Nick Taylor is 1% own and it’s like well I guess I will take a chance with him there but it’s always just a game theory answer when we’re talking about DFS cool so I’m going to take the game theory out of your hand to
A degree and double down on JJ spawn I’m curious as to if you would bet him at plus 250 for a top 20 or go to him in DFS in a cash game at his current DFS price of $7,600 Spence I would rather take him I would rather work him up the
Market as a bet I would I think a top 20 would been be an intriguing route to go so if you look at him specifically inside my model 35th overall inside the top 25 for upside outside of the top 60 for safety so that’s that Boomer bus
Profile to where if I’m going to bet him as a top 10 or a top 20 I think it makes sense I’m going to avoid him in a lot of those cash games head to heads um anything of that nature a top 40 also I mean unless the price that enters the
Space ends up being conducive for and I haven’t seen a number yet for that but I I would be out on anything that’s the safer route with it yes so Matt Nick Taylor is $7,200 and if you’re trying to find Nick Taylor on the odds board for top 20 he’s
Plus 320 so curious as to your take on which way you’d lean into Nick Taylor if you were to try and deploy him into your world going forward this week if at all um I don’t know if I’m G to get there with Nick Taylor this week but if
I were to pick a path I mean I think if you know Spencer kind of laid it out with the Poss you know the volatility possibility I think if you’re going to go that route I think I’d rather bet him for like a top 20 um and you know take a
Chance on an out right there rather than you know kill a bunch of lineups by using him cool I love it I think there’s certain guys that you got to try and establish a situation where you can figure out if they like high upside and
You go for that big plus money kind of gamble or if you you know want to I bet Scotty shef the top 10 at minus 200 I felt like it was going to catch the whole year the whole week even though it felt like I was watching that tournament
For the whole year you know like it was just crazy so I’m kind of curious as to you know exploring that minus Market a little bit more this year I saw in that research article like there was a lot more success you know given those negative odds especially with guys
Playing well so it’s it’s an interesting thing yeah go for that is interesting yeah I’ve never I’ve never dabbled with that before but um that is it would be interesting to kind of look into so I’ll have to keep tabs on on you with that
This year and see see how it’s going my my friend Ron PJ splits 101 asked me how can you lay minus 200 on Victor havin over Brendan Todd like how can you lay that much juice and I just I just felt like there was an edge there because of
The situation that Todd was in and landed up breaking his driver the following day but um Spence like I’m curious as to your take on on negative odds and because I feel like as a golf betting Community we kind of just like pride ourselves on like NFL bets the the
Chiefs at minus one 175 versus wh or whatever like that’s an acceptable long odd to take in golf there’s certain guys that have sustainable metrics that can really produce like reliable results why are we not more endearing to the longer odds in the placement markets well I think for the first part
Of that like there’s a misconception to me when we talk about odds because value is really the only thing that should matter like regardless of what the price is the biggest bet that I have ever made for any sport I don’t remember the exact
Number I got on it I want to say it was in like the 280 290 range uh that I laid at minus 280 minus 290 when I took Floyd Mayweather over Conor McGregor like the day of the fight when all the money came in on Connor there I think that’s one of
The big things that people and and I think a a in tournament head-to-head bet like you’re gonna have to embrace some of the variants there and that’s why it’s like you have to be very cautious with how much of an edge you actually believe you have but um I think that’s a
Thing that people should be more aware of is that if you have value that’s all that matters at the end of the day like we’re trying to find Value we’re not trying to say that this is the bet I got and I got it at a million to one and the
BET has no chance to win like we’re trying to win money we’re trying to increase a bank role correct yeah it’s it’s really interesting man because and the thing is you can you can take on those like especially in the ties paid in full versus the actual like better odds
Market if you’re taking the the better odds at negative the likelihood that that guys in the top half of the top 20 versus taking a plus money top 20 guy with better odds that it’s just inferred that he’s going to be flirting with that top 20 bubble right which is going to
Cause some issues so it’s just something that like my eyes were open this offseason when I realized all this stuff so I’ll definitely be dabbling in a few more for longer odds and at the end of the day I know you have to lay 20 to 110
If you betting a minus 200 but that’s only that’s a 66% chance right I think Victor had like a 70 80% chance of beating Brandon Tod on any given day right like especially when Todd was in the final group playing with Scotty that was the question I was going to ask you
Is when you are laying like you have to take on more exposure for a wager like that how much of an edge do you actually need to make that bet right I I’m not entirely sure I just kind of didn’t have an A fullon like mathematical edge of my
Head but I saw the numbers for Brennon Todd’s round three and I saw Victor’s round three odds were like his Strokes gain are much better in round three and the fact that Todd it’s tough to kind of formulate a number for Todd being under pressure I just know that he’s not good
Under pressure and I feel like that’s why I kind of Juiced it up a little bit because I felt he shot level P you know like it it was inevitable just Victor sculling it out the bunker was a totally different situation so but even then we
Still managed to to cash the BET even after victim made a triple so the edge was there I think it’s just it’s it’s interesting um I think from a placement situation it’s a little easier to to justify a larger larger Edge um you know on the market there because you can see
How many times has Scotty Sheffer finished inside the top 10 67% of the time right and then you get a smaller field on a course that suits his game I think it was solid so it’s interesting right the only the only thing I’ll say about the placement Market in general
They have sucked the value out of that board it is very challenging to find much of an edge any week like their hold percentage that they’re taking on is exorbitant um explain to people what a hold percentage is because I’m I’m pretty good at gambling to a degree I
Don’t even really understand exactly what a whole percentage is myself so like let’s let’s take it to the the outright Market we’ll start there so obviously when a when a tournament starts starts there’s 100% chance that somebody in that event is going to win the tournament and when the pricing
Comes out like if you were to make true odds and everybody could get to 100% you would have have 100% of your win Equity built into a model and that would just be fair true pricing on every single player so you’re trying to find those edges when you’re building out for 100%
Market but the problem is when you take books and and I’ll use it for this week for example there’s a and this is just taking an aggregated total from different books that I use some books are better some books are worse you can mix and match and you can find better
Value on some of these players like not every single number that I have in my sheet is the best that you can find on that player but there’s 160% right now of an implied win Equity probability so that’s like the total hold percentage that is being taken into place so 60%
Extra from that number is being held and when you look at some of these placement markets it’s almost every single player across the board like there is no value to be found ER Cole for me last week for a top 10 was really the only player that had value and unfortunately he bogeyed
18 on Sunday to not land in that mix but um I think in the outright sector you can probably get around it a little bit better just because there are going to always be in specifically in some of these full- field events when there’s a
Cut I think you only need to find you know one two three mistakes and they’re individual player mistakes above anything else I think when you get into the placement Market it’s already built in a way where every single player is just going to have the you sucked out of
It so that’s kind of why I’m always pushing for matchups because at least with the matchups you can still find those individual mistakes better than anything else just because if you place the wrong player or I guess for a bet the right player against another person
You can find the big Edge and like for you if Victor hin is minus 200 and you think he should be minus 300 that’s a significant Edge to try to take on a wager but um that’s obviously the the more advanced mathematical equation and not every single person is able to
Deduce this is exactly how large my Edge is I would just tell anybody out there be very cautious when it comes to the placement Market because there’s very little value to be found I would so much rather bet players in the head-to-head market and kind of get my exposure that
Way at this point until books stop being so greedy because it’s gotten over the top yeah it has and I’ll just add one more thing to matchups and why I love them the most out of everything is is because there’s nothing on this planet that a golfer can do that instantly
Cashes him a top 20 like he can he has to play all four rounds he has to win he has to you know continue that whole bet throughout in a matchup you’re going up against another guy it’s the only golf bet where you can cash a match a bit
Before the tournament’s over the guy can play six holes and still win it even if the other guy finishes and plays five right like withdrawals are on your side 50/50 in matchups where the book all always you’re always at risk for a withdrawal especially with like a Dey
And people like that you know that’s inherently built into the price but matchups are just always guaranteed that it’s mono IM mono that it’s the same Level Playing Field and I just love that about a matchup is that it can you know a wd can actually benefit you for once
Versus where the book’s just cashing in you know in tournament matchups to that’s something that everybody should add more to their portfolio if you don’t have enough cuz um I I think that there is an overcorrection that’s sometimes done in the market and I think that the
Biggest Edge that you can usually find are some of those mistakes that even the books will put out to where you can find that big difference like if you look at my in tournament matchups over the last six years like we’re talking about hundreds and hundreds of plays it’s
About 60% hit rate and that’s plays that are like minus 110 to plus 120 in that range so I think that that’s where you’re going to find your advantage and and for each person it’s about figuring out where your strength is at the end of
The day but if markets are going to be pricing you out that’s the problem and even if you look at pre-tournament matchups it becomes a little bit more challenging now if there’s not a cut during some of these events that’s going to be something that people need to be
Aware of also because there’s going to be that weekend volatility I always build my model for Mis cut potential if that Mis cut potential doesn’t come to fruition because everybody’s playing four rounds of golf I’m kind of going to be leaning much more towards in tournament bets so I think when you do
See my content over at Ro or you listen to shows like this it’s going to be a lot of that in tournament nature of where I’m building the majority of my exposure but um I mean I guess you know to each their own understanding where the value is and understanding where the
Market that’s best for you amen baby amen I just wanted to do some nerdy gambling stuff at the end there sorry to uh to keep us a little longer there than normal but I felt like there was some really insightful information from you Byron I I did a great job at the
Beginning for not talking 10 minutes and then at the end had to go back to my normal ways dude no this that was a good answer like I would have I’ve we’ve established now I’ll cut you off if we need to be cut off okay
Like it’s it’s going to be fine like we all we’re all in a safe space here I just thought it would be we were kind of rolling into a direction I was wanted to explore a little bit and it was nice to to kind of get your feel on how the
Market and different bets are playing out there so awesome Source friends family um thanks for tuning in use code tof or code Maniac for tempest send off our Platinum PGA package over at rotoballer.com we are here to give you guys the winning plays and to start
Bowling Like A Boss Matt thank you so much for being on the show tell the people where draws and Fades can be found and what’s cooking in your life yeah um you can find us on Twitter draws _ Fades um we’re back to doing weekly shows uh Monday nights they usually come
Out sometime late Monday early Tuesday you find me at many mills 85 um going to be you know putting a lot more content out there written as well with Roto bowler this year um looking forward to getting some of that started soon we’re kind of getting everything squared up
With that but yeah Big Year coming for the RO bowler team this year um great group of guys so yeah happy to be a part of it and thank you guys for having me on hopefully uh you know did all right and I get an invite back oh we’ll we’ll
See how it goes but you know since you’re part of the family I guess we’ll have to see you at Thanksgiving maybe but um no Matt you were awesome thank you so much for coming on brother it was really nice to chat to you for the first
Time and and hang out um Spence send the people off yeah as you said Byron we have a ton of different options for anyone that does want to become a member of one of the fastest growing golf communities in the industry weekly subscriptions are available to check out
If you want to see what the site has to offer dip your toes into the mix we also have three different tiers of yearly subscriptions that will’ll utilize uh and you can do what fits your needs best the best price for the value would be that PGA Platinum tier that you just
Talked about Byron gives you access to all the models picks the content created on the site you’re not only going to gain access to my pre- andin tournament rankings wizard model you’re gonna also get every model that Byron puts together you get a top-notch research station
That’s going to help Propel you when you look at what DFS Army provides for the site and then yeah we just have so many great Riders this year that are providing free content if you want to check that out but also the premium stuff out there so you know check out
What Joy is doing Matt Miller flag hunting model Maniac Joe nicely myself you do want to check out that premium package that we have uh for the PGA Platinum that’s going to be$ 299 a year I greatly recommend everyone to check that out I think there’s something for
Everyone here for 2024 yep and with code T off it’s 270 baby so like why the hell not right so that helps Spence it helps you it helps everybody we all happy family over here at roo.com friends so thank you all for tuning in don’t forget to give that like button the little
Tickle on the way out and we’ll catch you guys next Tuesday for episode 3 which is the AMX so we’ll catch you all then cheers
