FTN’s Walter Waddell talks all things College Basketball. He looks at the College Basketball DFS slate and shares a few CBB DFS Picks and College Basketball Props to play at PrizePicks.
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Wait you can back around hey Hello and welcome to the CBB Super Show I’m your host Walter wedell AKA Deuces 85 and we’re coming to you live on the ftn network as usual appreciate everybody who’s tuning in to watch us live and or on demand I appreciate that so much I just want to ask you to do one
Thing go ahead and hit that like button for us been getting some really solid views lately so it’s a very simple thing to do if you could just hit that like button it definitely helps out allows us to be seen by more people who search for college basketball DFS and other sports betting
Content it is a tough evening for me as you can imagine I have the uh you know the Husky Rose bll throwback shirt on and um you know not the best of championship games and I know that uh the end of the Pack 12 era is uh is
Bittersweet because Pack 12 you know leadership was awful and it’s just a terrible conference in general but you know we’ve been in it for so long and I really would have liked to have seen America’s team the Washington Huskies close out this year with a title but uh
I just got to say real quick and I know you’re here for college basketball content but the Michigan Wolverines defense the real deal congrats to them it could be easy for me to sit here and say that you know the refs obviously missed some key holding penalties and
Some other just straight BS but that happens every game let alone a championship game and honestly we were just kind of overmatch there allowing Donovan Edwards to run untouched on two back-to-back touchdowns was pretty tough uh great season by the Huskies overall though excited to see next year with the
12 team playoff obviously the end of the Pack 12 some of them going to the SEC some of them going to the big 10 which is where we’re going uh we’ll get a chance to rematch against Michigan and our college football content next year will be far and even more robust than it
Was this year more shows more written content projections which are doing well in college basketball we’re really starting to fine-tune those planning to do that in college football as well um chart snaps just like all kinds of fun and and you know useful information that we’re going to be providing for the 2425
College football season those of you who haven’t had a chance to check out the college basketball content yet and are now trickling over as some of you have been doing uh now that college football is over NFL starting to wrap up as we’re in the playoffs March Madness will be
Here in the blink of an eye definitely would recommend if this is your first time checking out the Super Show getting over to ftnd daily.com seeing what we’re all about there there are one month trials and other promotions going on to check it out and see not only do we
Offer the Collegian content but we have professional sports Esports written content behind the pay wall shows um obviously some free shows as well tracking information for bets picks prize picks all of that stuff optimizers projections ownership projections everything you could possibly need to be a successful and competitive DFS player Andor Sports
Better if this is your first time checking out the Super Show what we do here is colle co cover the college basketball Slate from a DFS perspective we also touch on prize picks and any betting opportunities from totals sides Andor props the tried and true method of
Going game by game talking about any matchup you know uh uh bonuses anything that like you know players that we like players that we don’t like sneaks overpriced guys underpriced guys Pace Tempo usage rates everything from a deep set analysis this is what I believe to be one of the more
Informative college basketball DFS shows out there and I really do hope you guys feel the same and continue to turn out the uh the support that you have been as it stands with college football now officially in the books we will be moving to four CBB super shows during
The week right now it’s Monday Tuesday and Friday haven’t quite decided how I want to do that yet if I want to add a Wednesday or a Thursday just yet but we will be moving to that and as we get into uh conference tournaments and the March Madness big dance we’ll be having
Daily shows it is a grind that does not stop here and we truly do love college basketball on a very deep level that some me feel is very unhealthy however we also love to see our community members win money more so than myself I get a lot of joy out of helping people
Win and I take it personal when we have a bad night another one of the few people out there that provides content that truly loves helping people and loves to win money along with you guys so that’s my Spiel that’s my my quick sell to you new viewers let’s get after
This slate and talk about it here what’s up honcho asking me about Kentucky minus 12 and a half we’ll get into that here in a little bit um you know uh as far as betting opportunities go but uh I always tell people trust your God you know we’re
Going to give you information we’re going to lead you to a path but at the end of the day it’s your money right so I I certainly would recommend you know trusting your gun on something like that DraftKings does have it minus 13 for Kentucky clearly Missouri should be
Overmatched in this spot here I don’t necessarily like a a conference game especially involving Kentucky who’s been very good don’t get me wrong uh but I feel like this is the reverse of what we normally see from Kentucky ordinarily they start off slow and then they start
To pick up steam and then it’s like wow this is a really tough out this team doesn’t lose they’ve been really playing well throughout kind of feels like some letdowns will be ahead especially for this team having a lot of younger inexperienced players for the conference grind don’t think that Missouri is
Necessarily going to win but 13 is a lot uh and I know Missouri hasn’t been great uh or at least their their schedule has hasn’t um but that’s something that I probably personally wouldn’t take myself but if you have a read on it or you’re confident in Kentucky then yes I would
Say minus 12 and a half to 13 is fine just feels like a lot of points to me here even against Missouri because it is a conference game all right so we’re going to get into this slate let’s talk a little bit about the DraftKings
Offerings here it is a 12 gamer so we’re getting into those larger slates you’re going to see on Tuesdays they’re typically going to be 10 plus games Wednesdays typically going to be 8 to 10 games maybe a little bit more and then you have your big Saturdays this last Saturday they did
Kind of an odd thing where you know there was 12 games but the main slate games were ending or their last set were starting like 15 minutes before the afternoon slate so they probably should have stretched that out a little bit more either made it 14 games or or I
Don’t know balanced out their selection a little bit more that kind of condensed it down it was a chaotic day on Saturday main slate was a pretty big brick we’ll admit uh we missed on some of the plays like Tyreek Samuel didn’t work out however afternoon slate was very good to
Us you know we hit on uh Kyle sturdivan of Georgia Tech who was a you know sub 4K play nearly triple double that worked out really well that was actually a projection sheet play and then my own personal play that the sheet didn’t like but I was very high on because of was
DVP standpoint was our guy Mark Mitchell from duke who had a massive massive 40 plus Fantasy Point game so the afternoon slate did result in some takedowns which was great continue to tell you just keep grinding if you have a bad day A bad week even a couple of bad weeks just
Keep at it play every single day you know lower your volume if you have to but things are going to turn around I’m very confident that we’re going to remain competitive throughout especially with this football money that’s about to come into play here for CBB DFS so the
Offerings on DK $15 tournament this is the midseason special that they’ve been doing satellites and qualifiers and all that for a lot of you have reached out to me and have tickets for this one uh at the $15 level $3,137 entrance $10,000 to First this is
The big one here uh winning 10K to First sure is a great feeling a shot of endorphins I got to tell you uh Second Place 5K third place 2K fourth 1,000 and then fifth 700 of course it’s a topheavy tournament as a lot of these typically
Tend to be there’s also going to be the Mania Q at the $60 level this is Mania Q number seven if you’re confused about what I’m talking about when I say Maniac H it’s the king of the bracket qualifier which is what they’re calling it now but
If you’ve been playing for a few years and even before the ban and what I mean by that is that college sports went away for a couple of years because they got banned DFS sites didn’t have a carve out for it it had to figure it out it was a
Dark time let me tell you but it’s back now and we’re all good and it’s still going to be called Mania that’s what this tournament was called originally they’ve tried to call it a couple of different names over the last two years King of the bracket I’m not feeling it
So whenever you hear me say Mania Mania qualifier Mania satellite anything to do with bracket Mania I’m referring to their end of the year tournament hopefully they’ll have uh survivors as well that’s something they didn’t have last year but in the past they have and those are fun you know four- day
Tournaments um that last from the first round of sweet 16 they usually did a elite eight to the final four as well but didn’t have those last year hopefully they will this year $60 level 134 entrance for that one great opportunity for the uh people who are
Trying to dip their toes in the water of the mme different strategies was talking with a couple of our subs earlier today about what I like to do when I do mme now we don’t have an Optimizer at ftn yet but now that we have projections exposure numbers and and all that we’re
Able to you know refine those player pool lists and give some some tips there but unfortunately you do have to use a another Optimizer which obviously isn’t ideal but we will get there on our side eventually there are a couple that you can use that are free to do um and all
You had to do is just plug in the uh the sheet numbers that I’ll be posting and I can copy and paste few of you have already asked but I can copy and paste those uh those names and their point projections over to you via email so
That you can enter those into whatever Optimizer you’re using and thus make your mme player pool and all that good stuff I can’t directly share the sheet with you guys just for privacy matters but I can share the actual ual screenshot of that data or I can copy
And paste it no problem whatsoever all right let’s get into this slate uh starts off with Satan Hall who has been a much better team than I think anybody could have imagined shout out to Sheen Holloway who’s just a winner right uh versus Georgetown a team with Ed
that is gonna take some time to really get into the Ed way they’re going to have to go through a cycle of recruits and really build the roster that he wants they’re they’re not really too good this year right um looking at it let’s go to DraftKings here uh Sean Hall seveno
Favorites which wow that’s that kind of befuddles me a little bit but they’ve played really well so I guess I get that uh total of 142 this is a seat and Hall team again they don’t have a very good nil program they don’t have a ton of
Money to spend on recruits springing in transfers they lost a lot of key people from last year they were able to keep kadari Richmond big time player Dylan ad USU who came over from St John’s and honestly this roster isn’t great their their record is 10 and five but they
Have not lost more than one game since December 12th wins over Missouri the defending champs Yukon Providence and Marquette now Providence obviously suffered a loss to of Bryce Hopkins for the season so they’re going to start to Tumble down but widely considered Connecticut and Marquette to be the
Premiered programs in the Big East and SE and Hall took care of business against both of them granted those were home games they will be on the road here against Georgetown Ken pal has them winning 76- 70 I personally think seven points is a little high for seen Hall in
The road against Georgetown because the Big East they tend to beat up on each other and and honestly as bad as Georgetown has been over the years Ed Co is at least a capable coach they have capable players Jaden EPS appears to be healthy his head is on straight and I do
Think that they’re able to cover here or even win outright against Satan Hall it would not Shock me one bit I know one thing I won’t do is BET Satan Hall minus 7 that seems like a sucker bet to me all right Satan Hall playing at the 280th
Tempo they’re very slow under Shaheen Holloway defensive efficiency 82nd offensive efficiency 61st the Georgetown team under Ed coie currently eight and seven after a win against depal which they had to dig deep they nearly barely lost to depal but they did end up winning three straight losses before that to Marquette and
Butler defensively their poorest 273rd in the country 259th in Tempo their offense 126 now this is a lot of games on the Slate so I’m going to try and go a little bit faster than I normally do but I think I always say that and I
Still end up running to two hours so I will do my best bear with me if you have questions comments concerns if you’re watching live definitely dump those into the live chat I’ll answer those as we go if you’re watching on demand dump a Content or a comment in there and I do
Circle back around and check those leading up to lock and I promise that I will uh tag the uh the CES here I always say that and then I fail to do that as well but I will make sure that there are time markers for each game in case you
Want to look at one specifically and you don’t want to sit through the entire show once again all right starting with Sean Hall we have kadari Richman coming in at 86 and I continue to say every slate of Sean Hall is like he’s a little
Bit too pricey for me you know almost 9k there’s a lot of downside there he tends to be relatively chalky maybe not so much recently but overall he has been a pretty chalky player and we know there’s downside there’s foul trouble there’s a high turnover rate but he’s been pretty
Steady throughout this seat and Hall uh winning streak scoring 30 plus fantasy points in each of his last four which includes a 55 against Yukon this is a great matchup against Georgetown he should be able to rack up steals against Yukon he had eight steals now that’s a a
Ridiculous number of Steels he had four following that against Xavier he hasn’t heading in two games straight but he’s getting a a group in George to that does turn over the ball they aren’t the the most careful with it and they are very very susceptible to aggressive Defenders
On the perimeter so Richmond should be able to turn out a fair amount of steals at the very least you know a couple High assist rate rebounds at a high level and we know he can score 20 to 30 real points as well so the upside is
Massively high for for kadary Richmond I would certainly recommend using him in any mme player pool that you’re going to be building um I don’t have projections set yet I’ll be in the morning putting those in and starting to to fine-tune them uh but I would imagine that kadary
Richmond is going to project quite well here the 86 is definitely a tough price now looking at the price just a sidebar here for a minute you have the most expensive player being Kyle filipowski at 92 to me not the best play in the world if I’m using someone on Duke I
Would just go back to Mitchell myself then you have Janai brw and 88 against the tough Texas A&M team tamin lipy against Houston which you found out real quick with our guy Ray battle taking players against Houston isn’t really a smart idea so lipy is probably going to
Be xed out on my sheet I’m not going to use him against Houston so that takes us to the next player of kadary Richmond being the most valuable pay up there is no 10K players on this one no 11k no Zach Edy there’s there’s a bunch of guys
In this you know 6K to 9k bucket that are just all wedged in there and I would never accuse DK of doing something like that intentionally but what this type of pricing does is it Waters down the overall upside but also it makes it to
Where a lot of lineups are going to be similarly scored regardless of how you build them meaning if you play Wade Taylor uh and and Mark Sears together and you’re going up against a lineup with kadary Richmond and Arthur Kuma nine times out of 10 with this type of
Pricing you’re GNA see that lineup or at least those two that 2v2 score very similarly uh so the margin of air on a slate like this is going to be relatively low we saw the porous pricing a couple of you know like what uh I don’t know four or five days ago we
Ended up having a decent slate on that one anyways but you did see the margin for air has been lower as opposed to these tighter price slates where you can Biff a spot you can Biff two spots sometimes even three and still cash with a 180 190 200 we love those types of
Slates because the edge is very very massive for those ones poorest pricing where that it takes 290 to cash that’s a little bit tougher right because you got to be perfect in all your spots this is one where I do see it being a little bit
More on the higher scoring side and if you do Biff your play in that 8K range let’s say you play Malik renew for some reason against Ruckers and he goes for 12 like you’re just dead to rights you’re not going to be able to overcome that one so just giving you an example
Of how your your build strategies are going to go here the rest of Satan Hall is pretty middling to me I know alamir do I always say that he’s kind of a rough play did score 30 two fantasy points his last time out against Marquette that’s because he was making
All of his threes he still doesn’t offer a lot on the peripheral side so he’s going to be reliant on that uh he’s 65 though not 53 so it’s a pretty easy fade for me I can get away from him that is a good job of DraftKings to have their
Dynamic pricing where a guy has a good game they price him up so I appreciate that although I would have loved to have seen him in the five5 range again and have people chase that last game because nine times out of 10 he’s not going to
Hit that 30 plus as chock so I would have loved that but as it stands at 65 he’s a pretty easy fade right uh Dylan ad USU at 72 playing massive minutes 35 Plus should be in line for a lot he’s another player that can take advantage of the Georgetown turnovers on the
Perimeter an aggressive player that hits the glass plays a lot like kadari Richmond for a cheaper price there is some downside there but there’s also downside with Richmond so Adu would be my second favorite play on seaten Hall if I was using anyone Dre Davis does come with guard forward eligibility
Probably the safest option because he’s just turning out that 22 to 25 fantasy Point range but at 74 that’s going to be a pretty tough ask I think um anyone else on this team you do have Jaden bako sub 6K going up against Georgetown I don’t hate playing him there as price
Has fallen after three straight games under 20 fantasy points but he can rebound at a high level as well foul rate’s going to be the the problem with him in the the riskiest aspect but at 5’9 there’s definitely some upside there on the Georgetown side we saw Jaden
EPS return against depal middling game 10 points two rebounds five assists played just about 29 minutes I would suspect we see him get higher into the mid-30s upper 30s which is what we’re more accustomed to I don’t necessarily like targeting against the seat and Hall team right now with the way that they’re
Playing uh but it’s it’s certainly not a a onp paper matchup that you want to necessarily avoid um the starting five they’re normally going to roll with Ishu dant styles Rowan brumo Jaden EPs and supreme cook they’ they flirted with Jay Heath in the starting lineup a few times
He did come off the bench in that last one Andrew Fielder and then lastly Wayne Bristol so we have a typical Ed rotation here with a basically seven guys sometimes an eighth with Bristol so you don’t want to X all of these guys out 69ine for EPS is a fair price Styles
Is a nice gpp look in the large field because he literally has that 12 to 50 type of range comes with guard forward eligibility does a little bit of everything um peripherals are very strong for him at times but like I said a very low floor Sean Hall’s front court is
Susceptible against other talented bigs so Supreme cook has a nice onp paper match up here uh minutes are kind of stuck in the 25 to 26 range 65 is just an okay price considering he was up over 75 at times this year almost 8K it is a
A cheap price for him compared the rest of the season but he still is one of the lower end options for me there and then you have ish massud who was super chalky for the first few games of his once he got eligible healthy for the Hoya then
He kind of fell off didn’t play that well and now inexplicably he’s priced at 47 here’s a guy playing 35 minutes at 47 welcome to ish mud being chalky once more um peep the rates out on ish massud who did play the most minutes in their last game against
Depal uh shot rate over 21% has taken 48 threes in nine games compared to the 15 the team has had so you know he missed the first few of the Season uh shooting 33% from long range 3% block rate 2% steel rate has a combined rebounding
Rate of nearly 20% so there is a lot of Merit using massud there as a starter sub 5K immediately getting a value piece at Ford in a matchup that he can definitely do well in thows are are a thing to worry about with him but the
Shot volume’s going to be there and if he hits a couple of Threes at that it’s not going to take him too much to pay off this 47 price so massud definitely one of the better looks in this particular game then you have Jay Heath
Down there at 43 did SP start a little bit played 29 minutes against kraton just 18 minutes off the bench against depal if he were to get back in a starting lineup he’d be interesting at 4-3 but I do think the days of Jay Heath
Being a main team type of option and a a relatively highend High upside DFS player over injuries and other ailments have just kind of hit him throughout the last couple of years of his career and he’s just really not that great of a play All Right Moving On we have South Carolina versus
Alabama uh let’s see here should have had these all ready to go but uh you know was watching was watching the N Natty game so you’ll have to bear with me Bama 12-point favorites here 55 total now South Carolina this is a team I just
Man I don’t know about you guys but I have not done well with South Carolina this year outside of Mei Johnson he’s been the the one constant and the kind of easier play for this South Carolina team but when it comes to guys like my St BJ Mack uh jacobe Wright like they
Have been very inconsistent the team currently sits at 13-1 under Lamont Paris they had a surprising home win over Mississippi State 68 62 now I say surprising not because you know the Mississippi state is some Juggernaut of a team but they had tolu Smith back who played 20 minutes they had Josh Hub
Who’s always a threat they have a good defense and still South Carolina was able to pull that one out so uh the only loss so far for South Carolina as it stands was a close Road loss to Clemson 7267 they’ll be tested now kenpom has it 8574 in favor of
Bama if you think the Carolina is truly this good and not a group of non-con Heroes which I think they probably are the 12 points that they’re getting there could be advantageous there and you might want to look to that one if anything though the bet in this one is
Over 155 I think we’re going to see a ton of points Bama’s likely to score 90 in this one if that tells you anything in South Carolina if they can keep it close then maybe we’re looking at 80 for them 75 to 80 so I do like the over in
This one the South Carolina team led by meei Johnson 31% shot rate 30% usage rate he’s shooting 36% from long range six fouls drawn per 40 has an assist rate of 20% he is definitely the guy that I’m looking at whenever I’m I’m you know focusing on South Carolina when
They’re on the Slate he is 7.4k the most expensive player on the Slate as no surprise 37 against Mississippi state that was truly impressive to me the way that he played hit three of seven from long range rebounded well which was a bit of a surprise and contributed in
Other categories as well supremely efficient and it wasn’t as if he took 20 shots either 12 shot attempts where he made the uh the you know additional points there and buttered our biscuits if you will uh to the foul line 11 free throw attempts nine of 11 and that is
Something that we could see him getting a lot of in this matchup against Bama especially with the way that Bama’s gonna want to play right now South Carolina’s 330th in Tempo very slow 77th in defense looking at Alabama 28th in Tempo the number one ranked offense on
Ken pal 76 in defense we know they’re going to push the pace the vaed Noah or Nate oats offense where they’re going to shoot a three or they’re going to be driving to the rack there is no middle and they’re they’re very very good at that um did have a tough tough time
Against Vanderbilt did Come Away with a win there 7875 so just kind of shows you that the SEC games can really truly go either way the Alabama side is certainly going to be interesting here we’ll get to them in a second outside of meei Johnson you have BJ Mack who has at a
Interesting price of 64 which I believe is one of the cheapest price for him of the season um coming off 30 minutes against Mississippi State he has a lot of foul issues and his shot hasn’t really been folling you see shot one for nine there against Mississippi State uh
One thing about Mack the first half’s for him he’s kind of a bit of an AJ stor in that his second halfs have been better this doesn’t really have any super relevance on him as a play but I have noticed he gets off to slow starts
And usually players who get off to slow starts obviously it’s tilting but you know sometimes they don’t have enough time to catch back up and he’s not the same type of player in that AJ store and that he’s not going to be taking over games he does have a high usage rate
Over 26% he does have a high shot rate over 29% but minutes can be an issue with him sometimes especially when he picks up those two fouls very early in the first half 18% defensive rebounding rate 4% block rate drawing around five fouls per 40 but four fouls per 40
Called on him as well definitely think the 64 price puts him into tournament consideration uh ton Cooper at 68 not g to go there you do have mil stute who is priced at 53 that’s reasonable he has scored 20 plus fantasy points in four straight games after he was all the way
Down at 4-1 against winr he seems to have leveled off he’s taking double digit shots and three straight as well not a big peripherals guy he’s rebounding well but he’s definitely going to have to continue to score he’s actually made nine threes in his last
Three games as well 11 in his last four I don’t know if that continues but going up against Alabama he’ll certainly have those opportunities uh relevant here so the starting group like they have the token starter which is Stephen Clark plays like 10 to 15 minutes but then doesn’t
Really do anything else right mil sto BJ ma ton Cooper Mei Johnson it’s notable that Zachary Davis played 25 minutes off the bench chobe right 11 and Colin Murray boils played around 17 and he looked quite well he’s played 15 plus minutes in three straight the game
Against Florida A&M which was a blowout back on December 30th 36% usage rate for Colin Murray Bo 17 points three rebounds two steals the game before that against Elon in 18 minutes 31% usage rate 10 points three rebounds two assists and a 24% usage rate against Mississippi State
In 17 minutes eight points two rebounds one assist one steel There Is Something Brewing here with Murray Bo keep getting those minutes up he’s 4.1k now this is not a play that we want to use in our main but I definitely think he can fill out a player pool especially if you’re
Running 10 20 lineups or more getting him into one or two as a value piece at the forward spot especially if we think BJ Mack is headed for foul trouble we could cease those additional for Murray Bo and he’s clearly out there making things happen when on the court and he’s
Earned additional minutes his usage rate has now ballooned to 27% on the season he has the eighth best offensive rebounding rate of all SEC players and definitely somebody that we want to keep an eye on as a freshman he looks like he could be a very very good player quicker
Uh sooner rather than later I should say um Zachary Davis the sophomore his minutes have been sporadic his rates aren’t great but he is seeing these minutes off the bench pretty consistently and he’s contributing as a pretty high level prop passer cist rate has starting to gone up has a 3% steel
Rate rebounds really well seventh best in the uh SEC combined rebounding rate over 20% so there is Merit to looking at Zach Davis he’s priced only at 37 again there’s going to be a high Tempo game here South Carolina’s likely looking at foul trouble for certain players but
They’re going to have to sub guys out because we’re not going to be seeing all these ton Coopers and mil St playing 35 minutes in a pace up game like this so it’s only natural to think that Zachary Davis who just played 25 minutes in a close game should continue to see 20
Plus minutes I think I’ll project him somewhere between 20 and 21 at 37 he is certainly looking like a 4X play yet another value piece that we can use here Mei Johnson is the top overall play but I I realistically think Murray Bo and Davis we could probably have higher
Roster ship on throughout our mme Builds on the Alabama side always love Mark Sears priced at just 79 the last couple of weeks he’s been kind of just a Lock and Load at those prices had a rough first half against Vanderbilt but came alive in the second took a bunch of
Free throws in the second and he went from suddenly like nine real points to 21 by game end a main reason that they won you know what you’re getting with Mark Sears at 81 he is the primary scoring option going to shoot 15 plus times in a matchup like this he’s a very
Safe play in that 8K range if you can get to him uh obviously going to be one of my top owned players on Alabama each and every slate you do have Aaron Estrada there for 8,000 as well now he had a 47 against Liberty and a 39
Against EKU but about 23 and I think in these SEC games we’re going to see a lot more of him scoring in that low 20s range the hofra version of Aaron Estrada that just put up 40 after 40 after 40 not really going to be doing that here
On this Alabama team that has plenty of other mouths to feed and clearly Mark Sears is the alpha Sears took a step back last year with Brandon Miller but there was no shot he was going to do that with est Strada we’ve seen Sears revert back to his high usage Alpha role
That he played at Ohio the Bobcats and Estrada is just more of a secondary option here so I I’m not paying 8K compared to 81 Sears and I don’t think many people would so it’s going to tell you Estrada is going to be on that low
Own side if you do look for some leverage in those large field tournaments because it certainly is on the table for him to put up 40 plus it’s just not that likely um Grant Nelson at 75 I suspect will be relatively chalky he’s been at this price 73 69 75 playing
About 28 to 30 minutes now I’m still on that kick about Grant Nelson against upper tier competition being a fade throughout his career we’ve seen him struggle now is South Carolina technically a tier a or upper tier competition it’s tough to say they have the front Court pieces to make him struggle they
Can rebound well and you take the rebounds away from Grant Nelson and put him you know somewhere between two to four and he scores nine to 12 real points you don’t really have a lot of meat left on the bone uh I mean he did block six shots in his past two against
Vandy and Liberty that’s a part of his game that I don’t trust he gets assists from time to time but honestly 12 and four at 75 that’s just not going to get it done he shot 15 threes against Arizona that was a really strange game I don’t fore that happening once again but
If there’s fouls ineffectiveness whatever we are obviously going to see Nelson shoot a lot in his 30 minutes but he’s only taken nine shots in the last two games the Liberty game was a blowout so we can throw that out but a close game against Vander uh Vander belt where
He took uh five shots five free throws only shot two of five from the foul line three of five from the field that’s a bit uh worrisome for me so so I would say that I’m going to be underweight on him but I do know that he’s going to be
Relatively popular because that price on Grant Nelson and people seeing what he did last year in his career they naturally just tend to click him in especially as a forward I really like Ryland Griffin he is my favorite long-term prospect on this team 56 is a
Tough ask he has scored 21 plus fantasy points in three of his last five he was very steady against vanderbelt a key piece there he was holding it down in the first half while was sort of struggling he had the big game against EKU in the blowout where he scored five
Of nine from long range not typically going to see that from him but he is definitely trending up somebody to be aware of a nice little leverage piece there at 5’6 and then you have all these value options for Bama uh Sam Walters the The Freshman he’s trending upwards
He’s a high shot rate guy but minutes are are pretty sporadic there at 44 I don’t know that we can really use him he did play a bunch against Arizona because there was foul trouble and some injuries going on so 20 minutes there and and he
Hit three threes against them more of a secondary value though Nick Pringle at 44 is a walking Fowler we know that I don’t think you can use him even at that 44 price going up against a what I’d call it an aggressive South Carolina team Latrell Rell at 4-3 has played 22
Plus minutes and three straight there is something to consider there with Latrell ritell he was somebody who you know throughout the course of the season so far hasn’t really been a a big time option for them he’s been used sporadically but if you know anything
About right so and what he did where he came from Cal State Fullerton High usage guy Elite three-point shooter high volume scorer just the straightup alpha for Fullerton for a few years and a type of guy that you know no problem pouring in 25 real points taking 12 threes and
Having a really big you know game granted as of volume score doesn’t have that luxury here for Alabama to be a volume scorer right there’s no Javon quinly anymore he’s on Memphis but you still have aada you still have Sears you still have Nelson all going to be
Options in front of him and you have the match the continued maturation of Ryland Griffin but clearly o sees something here with rightel he shot 50% against EKU 75% against Liberty 38% against Vandy but he did hit 50 71 and 43% of his threes he’s taking no
Less than six threes in the last three full byy in into the Nate oat system now he’s almost 5K against Vanderbilt little bit tough to get there I would have loved the 38 price as I imagine a lot of people would but after scoring just 15 which at
5K he’s down to 43 and he poured in 32 against Liberty really on the uh the consideration for right cell here in this spot he did have a spot start a couple of weeks ago I don’t expect that to be the case here but at 4-3 he’s definitely a viable option especially in
Those lineups where you’re not playing Mark Sears or Ryland Griffin um the other values that you can look at here for Bama moag who minutes are diminishing they’re not really going to look to him unless we suspect there’s G to be major foul trouble in the front
Court um Davin Cosby is a guy with a lot of upside we need to see more minutes out of him there will be a time and place for him next year and then jiren Stevenson who’s been pring pretty consistent 15 to 20 minutes has scored double digit fantasy points in
Back-to-back near Min price you have a lineup that you really like up top you’re okay eating a two to three x score from a guy at near Min price then jiren Stevenson could be somebody to consider there uh but Mark Sears an elite play Ryland Griffin kind of the
Offbrand play there and then right cell as a value that I could very well see being relatively high in your IM builds there uh and what I mean by high is is possibly up to 20 to 25% which may shock some people but I think those minutes
Are going to continue all right now we get to the Kentucky game that we were being asked about there Kentucky has 13o favorites here against Missouri 12 and a half at whichever book you’re looking at there I’m looking at DK total of 161 and
A half that is a lot of points right we are getting to a spot with Kentucky games where they’re just going to be involved in high scoring Stu they’re playing at the 18th fastest Tempo they’re the eighth ranked offense on Ken palom 43rd in defense the game against Florida man
8785 now Florida played at the 11th fastest Tempo that’s why that game was High toal may remember it was like 170 175 something crazy like that Florida side was pretty disappointing I was really high on Tyreek Samuel I know a lot of you were because of me he wasn’t that highly
Owned he didn’t work out still played 30 minutes but it was a a Zion pulling game and we also saw a Riley hugall game Off the Bench which hugle struggled this season and he had a big game against them but they did a nice job in the front Court however Samuel still had
Seven rebounds michah Han logden had 12 Alex Condon had five so the front Court of Kentucky which is mainly run with Trey Mitchell at the center spot still struggling Aaron Bradshaw is able to play 20 to 25 minutes but they’re still susceptible to opposing bigs here um
That is something to be aware of and overall Kentucky they were pretty watered down against Florida like Dean Wagner 14 points Trey Mitchell 12- 10 Antonio Reeves 19 but very any peripherals Aaron Bradshaw 10- seven Justin Edwards uh was you know six and two still struggling Reed Shepard Off
The Bench 14 and five but he’s priced really high that’s not enough Rob Dillingham only played 18 minutes six points and a rebound he’s priced really high so even with Adu Tio not playing you’re still going to see a a situation here while Dillingham Shepard and
Edwards are going to be playing 18 to 28 minutes and you’re gonna have Wagner Mitchell and Reeves playing 30 plus typically Bradshaw Falls in there around 20 to 25 so it’s going to be really hard to pay Kentucky minutes and production outside of Wagner and Reeves really um
Looking at the Kentucky side here you have Reed Shepard at almost 8K I know people are going to pay that price because of the matchup in what he does but you’re still talking about a guy who’s coming off the bench and not receiving 30 minutes he’s been super
Efficient I really question how long that efficiency could continue this is a spot where if you put up 40 yeah it wouldn’t surprise me but you’re taking a lot of risk it’s not as if you’re getting him at 5’5 you’re paying a premium of nearly 8K for him for a
Non-starter any other team with a starter or a non-starter coming off the bench at 8K you’re most of the time going to be looking them off but because of his game logs people are going to look there same with Rob Dillingham who’s priced at 73 but he’s in the low
20s and and let recently he hasn’t really warranted this price he did have 37 against Illinois State and he’s been very good all season long but we’re looking at a potential non-con hero and some real regression here which I think started in their last game when he
Played Just 18 minutes put up seven measley fantasy points at 74 I’m not willing to risk either of those guys coming off the bench in my Prime build I still might look there in some of my gppp looks no doubt but these guys can’t be used in your main lineups uh Missour
Doesn’t have the front Court to necessarily exploit Kentucky so try Mitchell at 73 is a pretty solid play 30 plus fantasy points in three straight he’s probably one of the safer looks in this particular matchup I usually like to pick on Mitchell from the other side
But definitely a fan of his in this spot Antonio Reeves High usage leader of the team taking 15 plus shots with regularity at 73 reliant on his scoring ability but as far as the guards go he’s one of the better options on this team you have DJ Wagner at 68 I don’t think
He has the upside to typically pay off that price he is fine to use in a cash game setting because I do think he’s going to give you around 25 to 27 but that’s not going to win you any 10K tournaments anytime soon uh Edwards at 5K is begging to be rostered please
Please please do yourself a favor if you’re running some significant lineups you want to at least one or two uh say you’re running five to six like there’s just a ton of upside considered the best or the best in this class to not have him at
5K negligent we saw you know Stephen C coming back out his injury low price point he shaked off that injury he absolutely bombing away and he’s never going to be that cheap again I don’t know that Edwards is ever going to fully wake up the way Castle
Has he’s going to get his opportunity minutes right now are a concern for him but he is still starting 20 to 25 minutes at 5K can absolutely hit a four to 5x number at this price point needs to hit shots you look at the Louisville
Game six of 10 from the field 13 and seven for 27 fantasy points I think we could definitely hit that here with Edwards um so he’s he’s pretty high on my list honestly uh and then Brad shot 52 that’s a good price for him going against Missouri I
Do think he’s a fine gpp look obviously there’s foul risk there minutes are going to be erratic he’s never going to hit 30 so just an okay play there um I am hoping that my video is not messing up because my youngest kid is Contin ually calling all right sorry about that all
Right moving on to Missouri side of things sha East has been phenomenal uh played 40 minutes against Georgia 40 plus fantasy points at 75 to me it was kind of like you know how can we truly play Shawn East he was a bit of a sneakier option last year but he has
Matured so much taking over that Alpha role I expected Noah Carter to be the number one option on this team it’s clearly sha East and now we’re seeing a scenario in which he’s going to be playing 38 39 40 minutes never coming off the floor so has to be in
Consideration at 78 regardless of your salary constraints or what your lineup is actually going to do he is the type of player at this rate playing that many minutes 82.9% of the available minutes that’s going to go higher as we get into further conference games he’s absolutely
Somebody that you want to have near the top of your player pool especially in this match up against Kentucky in which he’s going to be relied upon heavily the Kentucky defense is good not Uber Elite and not to the level where we need to avoid them we just saw Riley cugel who’s
Been having a horrific year two for Florida absolutely detonate and make all of his shots basically against Kentucky we saw Zion Poland score at will against Kentucky and we saw our guy Walter Clayton who has been struggling a little bit lately scored 23 real points against Kentucky and really see Little
Resistance from the perimeter defense so I think sha East is is a very strong play and I highly doubt he’s going to be that highly owned as well 54% from long range he’s fifth best in three-point Mark right now in the NCAA um he is the real deal at this stage uh
24% assist rate and ass a usage rate over 24% a shot rate over 23% East is definitely the dude to own from Missouri Noah Carter is a very good price of 62 now that he’s in that low 6K range has forward eligibility he is also going to
Be a potentially optimal look don’t love him as much as I would Shan East but that price discount and the fact that Noah Carter is going to play 30 plus minutes puts him in our radar he’s not going to necessarily bang down low to take advantage of that aspect but he is
Capable he does take a ton of Threes he’s a crafty scorer and he can rebound at a high level when tasked with that I don’t think he’ll do quite as well on the floor with guys like Bradshaw but when they sub them out and they go to the small ball lineup Carter can
Definitely Feast there uh 24% shot rate only shooting 29% from long range but he has a combined rebounding rate above 26% and a block rate of four and a half% might surprise some of you there so Noah Carter at 6’2 definitely looking at his in Tomar Bates has taken a far bigger
Role with Missouri the minutes are going to continue to be there but paying almost 6K for tomarrow Bates I can’t do it I know he had a big game against Central Arkansas shout out to Carl Dy uh but I would not be taking tomorrow bats there at 5’7 when Noah Carter’s just 500
More Caleb kill still out so Nick honor will continue to see big minutes low usage low Fantasy Point perm minute player that Nick honor is he is only 46 so you’re getting a guy playing 30 plus minutes at sub 5K that automatically puts him into play but you have to have
Realistic expectations and know that he’s probably not going to give you a 20 maybe won’t even give you a 15 so you’re you’re rostering Nick honor at 46 with the understanding that it allows you to fit somebody else up top that’s capable of covering the points for you that he
Doesn’t get so instead of thinking of Nick honor like I got to get you know 20 from him to make Val value maybe he gives you 12 but you pick up that eight points from a Mark Sears or you know Philip house whoever you end up paying
For so you have to kind of combine it that way and think of it in that regard and how to make those points up when you’re building these lineups and deciding on who your pay Up’s going to be and who your value is going to be
Because Nick honor as a whole if you’re just relying on Nick honor to score you 20 it’s not a good play because he’s just not that guy he’s he’s I don’t know where the the fresh forom version of him went but he is not that guy uh you do
Have the Freshman Anthony Robinson who had been cutting into their playing time but only two minutes against Georgia so I guess that’s not in play at all either there is the uh kid Carell Martin who has seen 10 plus minutes in four straight games he has a ton of upside if
He were to get additional minutes or any kind of boost in playing time his usage rate has gone up he has fairly decent rates um I do think we see more of him but as it stands right now that would be nothing besides a a near Min price super
Punt in your large field gbbs uh I do need to what’s up Aaron thanks for letting me know I do need to just jump off for one second uh it’ be like 90 seconds I’ll be right all right uh so I had the kids Facebook Messenger for one of my daughters and
Uh comes up on my computer and she continued to kept calling and calling so I had to go up there and regulate all right we’re all good now Indiana versus ruter the ruers minus three 140 and a half total I gotta say I’m starting to despise ruers games the uh the Derek
Simpson experience is no longer fun for me uh early in the season considering him you know thinking he’s going to be a major blowup candidate has a pretty rough start to the season turns out a 33 against Howard couple of 25s before that thinking that
He’s going to be this High usage guy uh really liked him against Sean Hall early on at 56 blanked there kind of starts to pick it back up has a massive 30 against Stonehill against the Ohio State team on the road 40 at 46 in super chog
6K against Iowa in a matchup that he should have done really well in Iowa defensively not great they played a high Pace everybody knocks Iowa around right not Derrick Simpson 10 and a half fantasy points played 18 minutes against Iowa just there’s an awful experience there with Derek Simpson So He is 65
He’s going up against an Indiana team that is much better defensively in the front Court than they are in the perimeter a healthy Xavier Johnson would make that differently he’s obvious obvously not healthy although Xavier Johnson looked really good in their last game for me I’m okay just fading Derrick
Simpson it’s not as if he’s four five 46 47 it’s 65 he can do a ton of damage to your lineup if he puts up a 10 again I just can’t trust the kid and especially with the fact that jichael Davis is back and healthy now he’s gonna cut into time
We saw jichael Play Just 12 against Ohio State in his first game back after you know a couple game injury and then he played 24 against Iowa and he was very good 10 points five rebounds three assists 25 fantasy points so look for jichael to either get back in the
Starting lineup or continue to split time with Derek Simpson which in that case makes Simpson a total fade DAV is still in consideration at that 4K price point if he jumps in the starting lineup at 4K he would be main team viable he has scored 25 plus fantasy
Points in three of his last five his down games are really bad but he’s been steady uh in majority of his last five to six games you have Cliff omaru at 8K he’s starting to dwindle down there he’s just an okay play there I think foul trouble
Even at home exists here against the more athletic front Court of Indiana only four shots taken against Iowa we’re just never going to see him take those shots he had that 50 against Liu Liu is one of the worst defenses in all of college basketball 15 shot
Attempts you’re just not going to see that from Omar rui in conference play the next option would be Maat Mack now I’m a big Andre Hyatt fan I thought Andre Hyatt was going to do extremely well against Iowa uh his minutes only hit 25 he had 19 fantasy points didn’t
Have the game that we expected but you know who did have the game that I had pegged TI it for Maat mag who put up 45 24- 10 in 32 minutes he’s actually played 30 plus minutes in back-to-back games he’s taken 27 shots 10 of which
Have been from long range so at this stage Maat mag has started to turn into the alpha for ruter and I don’t know how many people outside of maybe their you know one or two people in their fan base would have ever thought that and even that even then I don’t think anyone
Would have like our guy Mike kry is the the the ruter fan in the group and and I don’t think that he would have thought matat mag is taking these kind of shot attempts putting up these kind of numbers now his price is at 67 I’m not
Going to chase that I’m fearful that his projections are going to be skewed a little bit because of his recent performances it’s an easy fate at that price in this particular matchup However if those shot attempts are going to continue for mag and he’s going to keep
Playing 30 plus minutes he’s at least in gpp consideration because nobody else on this ruter team seems like they want to take shot we know Amar Ru is just not going to get the ball uh we know drik Simpson’s probably going to get benched Andre Hy’s gonna take shots for sure
Noah Fernandez you know sometimes feels like shooting the ball open four then he’s seven for 13 then he’s 0 for three then he’s four for seven then he’s 0 for six that’s literally every other game so theoretically he should be shooting the ball in this one but after 03 against
Iowa but none of these guys you can really trust Gavin griffi who is the hot shot youngster only 10 minutes in the last game 16 17 so mag really looking like he’s turning himself into the de facto guy for ruter which is just scary for me so I don’t know that we’re going
To use any of the ruter guys in Indiana with Kell wear sitting there at 79 that is a truly appealing price sub 8K for him now ruter plays with a level of phys physicality that could definitely negatively impact where there are games where um Kell just completely disappears
He won’t rebound um he had the game what was it uh uh against Morehead I think it was when I had rostered him and they struggled against Morehead like it took some last minute heroics to win that game for some reason Kell wear was not interested in in blocking out crashing
The boards had just six rebounds against that team and had 24 fantasy points that’s a concern there but what we’ve seen from him in their short amount of conference games is maximum effort he’s playing 30 plus minutes and he’s looking to score and on the times like against o
OSU where he wasn’t scoring he was impacting the game in other ways just eight real points in that last win but he did have over 20 fantasy points 79 is a very appealing price for him on the road here against ruter is a bit of a concern from a foul standpoint but he’s
Definitely going to be in our player pool as a gpp guy because that is just way too cheap for Kell we and the type of slate breaking upside that he does possess now that he’s cheaper than Malik Renu now renu’s put up 36 plus in three
Of his last four and I get that but it’s just way easier for me to play wear over renew and I think that feels a little bit more safe wear does have a usage rate of 22% 23% shot rate while renew has a 28% shot rate 28% usage rate he is
Fully blossomed in year two in Bloomington very good player but I just lean into kware a little bit more Dre Galloway plays a lot of empty minutes however he has scored 20 plus fantasy points in three of his last four 55 I guess he’s technically in play I
Don’t necessarily love that uh McKenzie Ando is starting to see his minutes get screwed with so I think we can back off from him especially with the semi- emergence of Anthony Walker lately now Walker and backov seem to be splitting and it’s made both of them somewhat Irrelevant for DFS purposes at this
Moment the big question is can we use Xavier Johnson who’s priced at only 41 coming off 33 minutes against Ohio State very encouraging 18 points three rebounds three assists hit a couple of Threes got to the foul line endlessly eight of 11 at the line 31 fantasy
Points and we are rewarded with a $600 drop to 41 now uh most people are just going to look at that game and be like xj’s back click him in make his ownership high but we really have to consider the the different you know outcomes that we’re looking at here uh
Which is XJ coming into the game re-aggravating something because he has a million injuries truthfully picking up early foul trouble which is something something that he is known to do as a guard as well um or generally just ineffective and and the 41 price tag might seem like a no-brainer but if
You’ve watched Indiana or just Xavier aware of Xavier Johnson throughout the course of his career it’s it is a very dangerous spot now a lot of that risk is mitigated with the 41 price tag and the same applies to other values that I’ve talked about like a Nick honor if you
Really wanted to use him we know Nick honor is not very good play but we can make up the those points with the pay ups and we can do that with XJ 4 one we can get a couple of pay UPS H there if he bricks we can make up those points
Elsewhere but we’re going to need the pay ups that we get from him to hit a 5x plus number right uh so I am leaning towards using Xavier Johnson but I just want to be clear there are no guarantees about him playing 30 plus minutes his health is definitely not great uh at
This point held together with with duct tape and and you know it’s it’s not a great situation or a fiood situation for me but that price is damn cheap and hard to get away from uh when you look at the Ohio State game which Ohio State’s been you know defensively they’ve got Bruce
Thorton who locks down guards but they’ve been giving up some big numbers to opposing guards lately um the starting lineup that they ran with mbako wear Galloway Johnson and renew four of those five played 30 minutes Walker and and I backos you know split minutes at
The 34 they did play CJ gun 24 minutes which was something kind of eye openening and then Caleb Banks about 13 Gabe CS has gone to irrelevant um so looking at it if Johnson can handle those minutes there’s really no one else to give them to and the Indiana guard
Play in the absence of XJ has been awful their coaching staff has even said as much which you know you got to love uh a coach Like Mike that’s not afraid to call it like it is and and say that our guards suck um so as long as he starts
We probably have to use him but there is definitely a world where he plays 10 minutes because of fouls and or injury reag grav uh and you have to be aware of that when rostering him all right next game Tex Cincinnati versus Texas there are a lot of games man a lot
Of games that they just decided not to have huh kind of strange okay one second here I don’t have the uh normal box that I type up pre-show because again I was watching The Natty game so we’ll just go off of kenpom because I don’t want to waste time all right uh
7671 in favor of Cincinnati is the Ken pom projection Cincinnati top 25 in defensive ranking 101st in Tempo the Longhorns 217th in Tempo top 50 in defense top 40 in offense coming off a relatively tough loss against Texas Tech now the Longhorns under Rodney Terry have been Fair they are 11 and three
That recent loss to Texas Tech a blowout loss to Marquette and a 10-point loss on the neutral Court to Yukon wins over LSU Wyoming and Louisville it’s not great the nonc con for Texas and going into conference play in a tough spot against a Cincinnati team that is very improved
Under West Miller suddenly kind of worried about this Texas team and I having a lot of allegiance to Dylan duu and that brings us to Dylan duu of Texas because he’s only 48 and I have to ask what is coach Terry doing with his minutes if du is not 100% yet which he’s
Not like I get it but why bring him back yet or he is close to 100% and you’re still treating him with training wheels but there has to be a a a change here and they’ve got to start playing to sue 25ish minutes like I get it if you can’t
Handle 30 to 35 but 17 18 20 that’s just not going to get it done and you’re seeing him put up relatively High fantasy numbers in those minutes 19 and 17 17 and 18 22 and 20 and 32 and 20 uh the game against UNCG at 12 and 20 but
It was like a 72 to 30 win so effort really wasn’t there after they blew them out but 48 Dylan du Su nobody’s going to roster him because he’s not starting he’s not got the minutes on his side but you may remember to Su as he started to
Get healthy get in the lineup and he really started to dial in especially in March we got him in the tournament and he did us a huge solid by going fully nuclear and that is why his jersey hangs in the rafters of the woodell household
So I am very very tempted to use Dylan du Su and running multiple lineups tomorrow is definitely the move because of all the large field tournament options that we have and Dylan du Su at 48 is exactly what the doctor ordered took nine shots in the last game in only
17 minutes eight shots the game before nine before that give him 25 minutes this is a very high Fantasy Point per minute player going up against a tough Cincinnati team on the road it’s not a great spot by any means Cincinnati has a a you know Litany of big men they’ve got
Victor lockin who is an elite rebounder elite shot blocker playing some of the best basketball of his life they have Jal Reynolds who is a big bodied player nearly seven feet they have the Uber athletic Dan skillings they have Aziz Bandago who’s another seven-footer OD aama who’s a body they’ve got guys down
Low that are going to cause trouble and what I see Happening Here is maybe a situation in which one of Dylan Mitchell or Kaden shedric get a little bit overwhelmed or on the road we see shedric picking up fouls which is very possible and that opens the door for du
Su to play some additional minutes so I am am certainly buying in hard on Dylan duu we also have eithel Horton at 4 four got that start against UT Arlington played 35 minutes absolutely destroyed right uh barely played any minutes after that the the way that coach Terry is
Running his rotation especially on the bench is very peculiar obviously Horton went from starting there because Tyrese Hunter was out Hunter returns plays 34 minutes and we barely see any of Etho Horton they played four starters above 31 minutes all five of the starters played 29 plus minutes just 17 minutes for de
Nine each for Horton and Kendall Weaver um you got to have somewhat of a bench and when you got two players like du Su and Horton which would be starting on I don’t know 80% of the other programs in the world it’s very very odd that they’re not using him and Brock
Cunningham is giving them almost nothing 31 minutes zero points five rebounds fouled out like why is Brock Cunningham getting that kind of PT when you have du e Horton who I mean granted they’re both coming off of injuries the suore are severe but I have to think giving them
More minutes than Brock Cunningham is a a a winning move I I think most people would agree um so I’m keeping an eye there I think gpp shares of Horton and du Su I’m like ready to run du Su in my main I’ve gotta keep in mind that I’m
Very partial to him but 48 is just such a advantous price that I think he just knocks it out of the park puts up a 6 number there especially if we can get him into the 20 25 minute Mark again not a guarantee by any means but he’s a very
Elite play if he is uh Dylan Mitchell playing extremely well with 76 we’re playing a top tier price that’s going to be tough Max Ace Miss 76 he’s been very steady you can use him in gpp looks that’s fine shedric at 5’8 is in play for sure but I do see
Foul trouble there and Tyrese Hunter who is is pretty much a steady cash game game single entry option this year kind of reverted back to his younger Iowa State self last year we know he had struggles throughout had a hard time putting up 4X at 5K pretty often but now
He’s really playing well and he’s taking a huge number of shots 16 12 11 and 10 over his last four you look at what his shot rate has begun to balloon into he is up over 21% usage rate over 24% shooting roughly 34% from long range Duo’s numbers are El leite leads the
Team in usage at 25.4% leads the team in shot rate at 28.3% has a block rate of 7.3% and get this he’s shooting 67% from long range however he is attempted just nine Dylan du Su deserves more minutes that’s the one takeaway from the Texas game that I want you to be thinking
About on the Cincinnati side they are a strong group West Miller has this team humming right along and you know their their first year here in the Big 12 12- two uh a a strong win over BYU another new member there 71 to 60 and that was a
Road game here um I do think they beat Texas however if Texas coaching staff especially Rodney Terry decides to play two of his better players more than nine to 10 minutes I think they will have a chance to beat Cincy here our guy Victor
Locking at 74 it’s a bit of a high price he has been steady maybe not the upside there at 74 but he is one of the safer looks for the large field tournament not so much um the guards 6461 day Thomas Newman lucus at 56 like all just guys
Who are going to be between 18 to 20 Dan skillings at 52 is one of my favorite gpp looks he’s another guy that when he gets in that 25 26 range he completely murders a slate unfortunately he hits 14 to 20 more often than not it’s very
Frustrating but he’s very good for for the Cincinnati team and then they did get aiz Bandago a few weeks back um well not a few weeks back but a month or two back he’s been playing a steady role 30 plus fantasy points in three straight games another high efficiency player
He’s doing it against teams like BYU and Dayton both which have strong front Court presence he has 10 plus rebounds in four straight as well only five five I do feel like Bon dieago is a strong look there at 55 now he doesn’t typically stop the group that we would see starting
John Newman seus lucus Victor lockin DayDay Thomas and Dan skillings but all of those guys outside of locking and sometimes DayDay are very low volume low usage guys skillings I know I said he has his moments but a lot of times he’s not out there long enough to do so and
John Newman and and seus lucus are playing these big minutes but their usage rates are below 15% they’re taking very little shots and they’re doing nothing else besides defending and sometimes rebounding so a lot of empty minutes for those two guys you have Victor out there and then you’ve
Got two spots kind of rotating out between Bond dieago sometimes jizzel James Dan skillings and DayDay Thomas so I love ban dieago as a play understand that he doesn’t start he’s 55 this slate actually has a lit KN of forwards that I like it’s not often that we have
Forwards that we can utilize it’s tough we’re usually trying to find a guard forward eligible guard or we’re trying to pay down it forward but we have definitely you know gotten through just under half the slate and we already have five or six forwards that I find using
And Bago definitely one of that all right Houston versus Iowa State can’t trust IU on the road after a big one yeah I mean you can’t trust I Indiana at all I agree it’s just a matter of of XJ I think uh and then Hunter Salis KPS
Um we’ll get to that game but yes Cameron HRI did us well but uh yeah Hunter Salis is always in play for Wake Forest all right Houston versus Iowa State this is not a game that I’m looking to Target on either side so I’ll probably try to keep it close because
I’m way behind the pace that I really need to be at now Houston’s three and a half Point favorites total of 131 and a half and those who you know maybe don’t believe in matchups or DVP or anything like that got a big dose of reality when
It comes to how plays defense and targeting them or against them I should say for DFS purposes by the way Houston 14-0 longest active win streak 14 in a row coming off a absolute shelling of West Virginia 89 to 55 now the hottest player in America my guy rayquan battle
Was absolutely silenced one of nine against Houston not only could he not make a shot but they did not allow him to even get shots off half the time the volume wasn’t there he had four points got into foul trouble three turnovers ended up playing Just 23 minutes they
Ended up pulling him and their starters because the game got so out of hand so fast in the second half uh there was no reason to keep battle out there Ray is very good but the Houston defense is on another tier uh holding that team to 55
Points after how well they’d played the last you know two or three games with Ray battle you know they scored uh was it almost 75 against against Ohio State 91 against Toledo um 80 against UMass like they’re putting up some big scores and Houston completely stifled them so
You’re looking at the number one ranked defense on Ken palom 10th best offense they play at a pace of 325th you do not want to be caught te uh taking guys against Houston very often when that starts to happen is when we get into March and we have smaller
Slates and we’re talking about o le8 you know final four sweet 16 slates and Houston’s in it that’s when you have no choice and you start taking players against Houston you don’t take players against Houston on a 12 game slate very often now I love this Iowa State team
Specifically to Min lipy lipy last year looked to me like a guy that could break out as the next Tyrese halberton I know it’s a little bit of a lazy comparison but that’s what we have to work with and he has been absolutely phenomenal now
Lipy is priced way high at 87 and he was way too high to use at 96 the other day against some another tough defense Porter Mosers Oklahoma Sooners they held him to one of 10 from the field fouled him out in 29 minutes and he had under
20 actual fantasy points so you see there lipy was in a situation where he wasn’t roster because of that Porter Moser defense and he won’t be roster B here against Houston either now he may put up 25 to 30 but he’s not putting up
The 40 to 50 that we had been seeing and he had been on a streak since uh November 24th he had put up 30 or more fantasy points in eight straight games you go back further than that it was 10 plus he is really good but you can’t get
Caught using them here if you want to throw away a lineup because you have a million of them for tomorrow that’s fine lipy has upside but I think at this point it’s just a really just honestly smart move to ex out players against Houston unless you have such a cheap
Price that you can’t possibly get away from them and even then there’s there’s no guarantee and you’re looking at a player in Hassan Ward who’s sitting there at 4-1 has scored 18 plus fantasy points in four straight now he missed about a month of the season it’s only
You know from his last game was November 12th missed a month then he played late December in the last game against Oklahoma he’s very good in those last two games and the the four straight over 18 two of those were back to early November so I want to be clear about
That dealing with the foot injury played 18 minutes against Oklahoma 12.7 rebounds on his way to 20 fantasy points only 4.1k some people are going to be tested here because that is a cheap price reward but you’re not going to be getting 20 even at when he’s healthy
He’s not playing 25 30 minutes for this team uh that’s just not going to happen and he doesn’t have the rates to prop him up against a a Houston defense now he has a 177% usage rate a 20% shot rate 12% block rate which is nice but six
Fouls per 40 I just really don’t see a a way for him to pay off very often here now he did start his first three games with this team you know back in November before the foot injury happened has played Off the Bench the last two planks
17 and 18 minutes so there is a a possibility of him getting back in the starting lineup but still very very lowend option even at 4-1 so just wanted to be clear about that on the Houston side Jamal shed was awesome he’s a player throughout his his his career
I’ve had difficulties you know it’s one of those guys everybody has a player or two it’s like you roster him awful you fade them they crush and I you know I went back and forth between shed paying up or or Manny sharp I did end up on Manny sharp
Who 22 you know just almost 4X guess it was fine only played 21 minutes you got 30 minutes out of Jamal shed in the blowout puts up 40 with eight reel 11 assists four blocks in a steel shed is magnificent now this is the type of matchup that shed could still do really
Well in because he impacts the game in other ways besides scoring uh he does Rebound he gets blocks he gets steals so a physical game like this that’s going to be ugly or lowc scoring he could still theoretically play quite well because of his strong peripherals but
Paying almost 8K for him in a total of 131.5 is a little bit of a tough ask they did get Jaan Roberts back in the West Virginia game he played 28 minutes wasn’t great only priced at 54 four I’m not going to touch him here either like
To see him you know have another bad game and then we’ll potentially have him at four or five on the next slate uh and really there’s there’s nobody on this team that I want to use LJ CER was very good against West Virginia but I’m just
Kind of staying away from this game as a whole whether that ends up being the right move here that remains to be seen But on paper fading a a low total between two semi Elite defense well one Elite defense one semi- Elite defense is usually a winning move all right
Speaking of West Virginia next game on the Slate Kansas State versus West Virginia this is a game that we can definitely go back to the West Virginia guys after ignoring them for a little bit there and why is the there it is DraftKings has such a weird list games all right uh Kansas
State minus one and a half 142 total they have a ton of games here at the 400 PM 7M on the East Coast time so lock tomorrow is a half an hour earlier than usual but we have one two three four five six seven games all locking at 4M
PST so be ready I’m going to be posting starting lineups in the Discord like I always do but gonna have very minimal time to really you know work with any last minute news Slate scratches obviously we’re running multiple lineups you want to have a very good handle on
Things at least an hour before a lock so that you have your lineups in and you can just make Global changes based off of the news at that point so be aware it’s going to be really tough once we get past that first wave it gets a
Little bit easier with one game at five and three at six all right West Virginia versus Kansas State now Ray battle’s a great price for this one at 74 he had the terrible game against Houston which was to be expected drops his priced from
8 to 7% for he is back in play as a main team guy absolutely love Ray battle in this spot um I think most people would probably understand to go back to him as well knowing that the matchup is fairly good battle has a usage rate of 36.6% and a shot rate of
40.7% he is absolutely the real deal in a matchup like this where he can exploit the K State guys you have Noah farahan sitting there at 67 is a nice little leverage all play I do think battle SE is a spike in ownership in a good matchup faron’s been taking a high
Number of shots he took 18 against Ohio State 12 against Houston had a little bit more freedom there than battle still didn’t have a great game but the volume was there for farakhan um then you have guys like Kerr kesa Quin seninsky cooka cook who’s 48 Kerr kesa at 5-1 only hit
Value in one of his four games played don’t love him too much I I just never been a big Cur Crea guy except for his freshman year when he was always Min price and I try to get him you know uh to hit a couple threes Off the Bench but
He really hasn’t been a guy that I use so much Quinn seninsky who had been really good for this team holding down the fort with Ray battle in the lineup his price continues to tubble not cheap enough yet at 66 you can safely ignore
Him as well and then a cooka cook at 48 does have legs in this matchup as a value piece not playing the most minutes in the world does have a starting spot is a great shot blocker and a strong rebounder so he’s at least in consideration at that 48 price
Point K State guys they are getting um uh or they were supposed to get Kei Glover back but he ended up having a scope on his knee and unfortunately they’re not going to have him now and that’s going to end up being a much bigger loss than I think people realize
For this K State team because Kei Glover is a very very good basketball player and figured to be a 25 minute per game guy for them um with that happening it keeps the rotation for K State fairly low uh starter wise Tyler Perry David and gussen Arthur Kuma cam Carter and
Will McNair Off the Bench you’re going to be looking at uh DayDay Ames some Dorian fster and some Jerell Colbert but for the most part this starting lineup’s going to play a ton of minutes which makes them all strong plays cam Carter has risen to the top as as one of the
The you know bigger Alphas on this team 28.1% shot rate leads the team 24.3% usage rate shooting 30% from long range 18% assist rate he has been a guy that some slates you couldn’t afford to fade and other slates he you just you couldn’t have rostered and still cash so
I’m a little on the fence I think this is a fantastic spot to Target multiple Kansas State guys against West Virginia because they are such a pitiful team right now uh but I kind of want to go to to Tyler Perry who is coming off the massive performance against UCF which
Will attract some people at 75 for sure but his logs aren’t nearly as attractive as Camp Carter’s and we’re hoping that that’s going to keep his roster ship down to a degree now he took 11 threes in his last game hit six took 11 in the game against
Witchita State and 10 against Nebraska so he is absolutely chucking up to 123 threes has made 33% of them his shot rate has risen above 21% usage rate 21% playing 87.4% of the minutes he’s just not going to be leaving the floor very often going forward and we’ve seen him
Play 35 36 33 and 37 minutes in each of his last four games I’m a big fan of Tyler Perry High assist rate gets Steals and is taking a high number of shots now when he’s missing shots things can get very ugly for him um but there are very
Few options for substitutes and this starting group with Perry and and Carter at least they’re going to be on the floor for majority of the game Arthur Kuma there at 8-1 turned into a steady option I think he’s fine against West Virginia but you know how Kuma is he can really become
Disengaged in a matchup very quickly I think 81’s a little bit too pricey for me but he’s certainly worth a shot because of all the minutes that he’s getting and gasan at 61 playing over 30 minutes as well he has scored 25 plus fantasy points in three straight if you
Can’t afford one of the Perry Kuma Carter uh Trio you can definitely play in gon at 61 I think you want exposure to at least one of these Kate guys in this matchup against West Virginia to me of all the games on the Slate this is one of the better fantasy environments by
Far uh you have will McNair there playing upwards 25 plus minutes he’s 46 value forward we seemingly have a ton of them he is absolutely in play as well and then DayDay aims nman price 35 minutes have dropped a little bit had some spot starts really don’t want to go
To any of the non-starters for this team nor do you need to do that or have a desire to do so none of those guys are really going to pan out finister who is 33 near Min price played the 18 minutes but could very easily play five has foul
Issues just stick to one of Carter columa Perry McNair or and Gan love Tyler Perry love Ray battle taking two players from this game just do Perry and battle and let those two guys battle it out or go to Carter in battle and same thing all right Wake Forest versus FSU
Starting to really despise this Florida State team Wake Forest Two and a Half Point favorites 150 point5 total starting with Wake Forest somebody was asking about Hunter Salis earlier absolutely 77 though the most expensive player on the Slate he’s been just churning out 30s uh Gonzaga obviously probably feeling pretty bad about not
Retaining his Services has to be in consideration played 40 minutes against Miami 36 against BC 34 against Virginia Tech in conference games hunter Salis clearly not going to leave the floor very often so another player wedged into that upper 7K low 8K range this is what
I was getting at there are all these different options and and that are viable uh mistakes are going to be punished really really brutally on this slate Salis 27.4% shot rate 24% usage rate then you have bopy Miller Kevin bopy Miller that is at 76 19 shot attempts against Miami he’s also
Churning out 30s you could stack Wake Forest typically and do pretty well Miller leads the team in usage and shot rate above 28% making 41% of his threes cam hildr came through for us in a big way price now at 72 he was only 6’4 against Miami 39 minutes 15 shot
Attempts comes through with 37 and he wasn’t really that highly owned that was part of the afternoon slate that we were able to kind of uh do well at put that main slate behind us after breaking a few of the plays now that hrth is back
Up over 7K and all three of their top guys are within a few hundred of each other I probably now move from hildr up to Miller or Salis with Salis being the priority among the three for sure then you have Fon Reed at 7K continue to play
Him I like him against the FSU front Court we could probably back off here he did have some foul issues that affected him against Miami only two real points but 27 fantasy points that’s because he’s an elite rebounder an elite shot blocker he has impacted this Wake Forest
Team in such a positive way you look at their last three games with him in conference play 86-63 over Tech 84 to 78 over Boston College 86 to 82 over Miami those are good quality wins we’ll see if that can continue against this FSU front Court a great gpp look I think people
Will try to play one of the Wake Forest guards not so much F Reed like the the potential there uh and then we did see Andrew Carr gets some ownership on that afternoon slate because of his cheaper price Subs 7K he’s gonna play lots of minutes but he’s definitely the last
Option in a starting lineup there for offense maybe ahead of Fon Reed but clearly behind the three CS there with the amount of minutes that the Wake Forest guys are playing in the starting lineup this is yet another team that won’t rely on their bench very heavily Zack Keller played 14 minutes Parker
Fredericksen played 18 Marcus Marian played five why would you want to play any of them I get that Frederickson is 38 but even in 20 minutes he’s giving us five to 10 fantasy points I guess but there’s not a tremendous amount of pay-ups if you
Build your lineup in a a wise Manner and you play the mid 4K to lower 5K values instead of having to punt somebody sub 4K you can get plenty of upper tier guys such as Hunter Salis and have a much safer lineup overall FSU we’re not using them they’re the
Opposite of Wake Forest they’re back to Classic Leonard Hamilton where they’re playing a rotation that is just stupid deep um maybe not as deep as years past but it’s still really deep and they played let’s see here nine different guys nine plus minutes which you know that might be lowend honestly for
Leonard Hamilton because we’ve seen him play 12 guys or more at nine plus minutes but that is where we’re at the starting lineup of Darren Green jir Watkins Baba Miller Jaylen warley and Deontay green only Darren Green played over 30 minutes in that game against Virginia Tech we’re seeing Primo Spears
Play more than Jaylen warley Off the Bench he played 25 and we’re seeing more cam Coran who some people are waiting for him to get back in the starting lineup or at least see more minutes Corin at 42 is somebody that would not shock me to see him in the uh you know
Higher roster ship level at that price point if he’s not starting I don’t particularly love it however Wake Forest defensively bleeds fantasy points to basically every single position and that’s especially true in the front Court they now that they have Fon Reed they’ve got a a a real rim protector so
They’re not as mad at orisk down there but they’re still susceptible and you saw nor Chad omir lit them up once Fon Reed got into foul trouble cam Coran’s not a nor Chad omir so don’t get that Twisted but he is a capable low post scorer at 42 he can pay that off
Especially if we think his minutes are going to go up or simply he starts because Deontay green is probably not the answer at the starting five at this moment um Watkins at 68 has upside but I just can’t really trust him right now because of the deep rotation and I
Always love a share of two or of Primo Spears who has the high usage rate has the high shot rate going to take a ton of shots but is not getting those starter minutes because he’s coming off the bench and he’s only played 30 or more minutes once since getting his
Eligibility so very difficult to use him right now maybe we can get him in that mid 5K range but uh DK is being very tight with his price right now all right moving on we have Oklahoma State versus Texas Tech this one is part of the games that
Begins in the 8 o’ Eastern hour that’ll help us find it here all right Texas Tech 8 and a half Point favorites 138 total there is the bit of drama surrounding pop pop Isaac with some allegations there as of now the Title Nine group and and and you know
Uh committee whatever you want to call them has done their due diligence done some interviews their investigation and uh apparently there has not been enough for pop pop to be uh suspended time whatever not saying that won’t happen but as of right now he’s playing and I
Don’t expect that to change anytime soon this is a game with a slightly lower total uh defensively we’re looking at two teams that can get after it historically Texas Tech has been Elite but you know the days of Chris beard are are obviously long gone last year’s Mark
Adams experience gone but Grant McCaslin is a fantastic coach and has to be recognized as such for what he did at North Texas leading them to a 31-7 record last year and winning 20 or more games in each of his years there since 2017 12-2 start for them losses against
Butler and Villanova now their defense looked pretty shoty there in the beginning part of the Season giving up 85 to Villanova and 103 to Butler however they have really clamped down and played quite well but their noncon wasn’t the greatest Oral Roberts Vanderbilt Arlington Sam Houston State
North Alabama all wins easy wins at that they get into a road game against Texas and walk away with a 78 to 67 win now they’re at home against Oklahoma State Ken palom does have them as a 10-point favorite and I do think they’re the better team over Oklahoma State for
Sure Isaac’s at 74 the Oklahoma State Side uh you know Texas Tech they’re top 40 in defense but when you look at Oklahoma State under Mike Boon they’re they’re 55th in defensive ranking per Ken pom but they’re far better defensively than I think those numbers show and they play at a more methodical
Pace that just prevents a lot of fantasy goodness if you will so I’m not crazy about paying upwards of s44 Pop Pop even though we know High usage guy that’s going to get every shot that he wants to take and he’s a phenomenal player overall uh there have been multiple
Players on this team that have been good to us for Fantasy purposes Warren Washington Joey Tain when he was cheap earlier in the year had came through for us multiple times now he’s stuck at this 71 price point and Daren Williams who is a high assist rate high rebounding rate
Guy doesn’t necessarily score at a high level but plays a lot of minutes and is usually a gpp caliber look Off the Bench the main player chance McMillan 5.8k playing nearly 30 minutes he’s actually pretty good at that price point but again I don’t love this particular
Matchup for them we do have a resurgent Kerwin Walton who had some big games you know uh for the first time in his career as a starter back in the beginning of December and he rattled off three straight games over 28 and a half then he had two fantasy points against
Arlington broke out for 26 again and then he had two against Texas that’s the Kerwin Walton that were typically accustomed to seeing and it’s not as if his minutes have gone down still played almost 30 minutes against Texas Two Shot attempts usually hangs out on the three-point line against lesser
Competition those threes were flying now they’re involved in some closer games and conference play I do think Walton continues to be more of a lost cause not even secondary option but somebody who’s really just a Fitbit type player um and I’ve been using that term a lot lately I
No late on it the kids used it years ago but uh you know I’m getting old now so I guess that’s how it is but at 4.5k I could see people wanting to play Walton because of his strong minutes that he’s getting in his starting spot but Chance
McMillan is starting to usurp him a bit he’s a better player he contributes at a higher level Kerwin Walton is just not a dude that I’m typically looking to roster for DFS purposes all right Texas A&M versus Auburn this kicks off three games at the nine o’clock hour that will finish up
The Slate uh Auburn seven and a half Point favorites we know Auburn for DFS purposes not going to be great under Bruce PR not because they they play you know a slow pace or their offense is bad quite the opposite it they’re top 70 in Tempo ninth in offense per Ken palom
Rankings ninth in defense which may surprise some people 12- two a puzzling loss to appy State a early season neutral cart loss to uh to Baylor wins over Indiana Arkansas USC pen and Notre Dame as well as Virginia Tech which was a very strong win 7457 now they’re playing this Texas A&M
Team that many think are going to be a a you know top tournament team top eight maybe not top eight overall but top eight seed uh 80 to 70 per Ken palom now what I was getting at here with auburn coming off of just an ass spanking of
Arkansas 83 to 51 muscleman gimmick is starting to wear thin I think and Bud Walton Auburn runs a very deep rotation very few players who are given over 30 minutes very few players who are given over 20 minutes it is made rostering anyone on Auburn that isn’t Janai broom
Nearly impossible now Chad Baker who had been starting earlier in the year came off the bench and was the best played 21 minutes 16 points four rebounds three assists it’s going to be difficult to justify playing anyone not getting 30 minutes at some of these price points
That the Auburn guys are Baker’s not exactly cheap at 61 um in a non-starter role playing 20 minutes he performs well with those minutes but he’s not priced low enough for us to pounce on that’s a problem my guy Trey Donaldson who I love is only priced at 46 coming off a big
Game against Arkansas 11 points seven rebounds four assists 19 minutes of play scored 26 4 six the problem is he might play 15 minutes he might play 10 he might play 20 I know he won’t play 30 and that makes it difficult especially going up against a much tougher team
Than Arkansas in Texas A&M but Trey Donaldson is a real dude if were on I don’t know Witchita State playing 35 minutes I can guarantee you Trey Donaldson’s putting up 40 a night that’s not hyperbole that’s just a fact uh you also have Aiden Holloway everyone’s favorite SEC freshman again stuck
Playing 20 minutes High upside if he were to get more minutes we’ve seen it but he’s just in that role 18 to 22 minutes pretty much anyone on Auburn that’s not Jaylen Williams or Janai broom are playing 18 to 22 minutes it’s a damn shame because there a lot of
Great players here Janai broom at 8.8 he can put up 50 in only 20 minutes he’s that good if you could imagine him ever playing 35 minutes it would completely break a slate we haven’t seen a a a 70 in a while I think what was Kevin cross
Put up near 70 for Tain earlier uh broom would definitely be on on notice for a 70 um closer games as they happen I think we do see broom start to get closer to that 30 minute Mark and they feature him a lot very good Elite GBP
Play at this 88 price on the oh and I guess I’ll touch on Katie Johnson Katie Johnson at 39 years ago at Georgia if you ever said Katie Johnson at 39 you’d be thinking damn I gotta lock this dude damn near 30% usage rate like can’t fade
Him really can’t roster him why 18 to 22 minutes you like The Cheney Johnson kid they brought in you know a non D1 star last year that’s fair he’s three 7 18 to 22 minutes Denver Jones FIU scoring machine last year you like him 41 it’s a
Good price 18 and 22 minutes that’s just really really where we’re at with auburn all right Texas A&M 83 for Wade Taylor it’s a good price we just saw Arkansas get completely clamped I’m a little bit concerned because I don’t think people I certainly I watch a lot of games and you
Know maybe not as much as some of you out there and that’s fine but I watch a ton of games streaming all that somehow didn’t find myself watching more than two three Auburn games it didn’t really click in my mind that they’re this good defensively but watching that Arkansas
Game for a time to watch you know Keon menafield and uh you know cursing in my breath that he left Washington they really get it after it on defense and part of the reason why they have such high energy every single possession is because Bruce Pro keeps these guys
Playing 18 to 22 minutes and because of that they’re just fresh and they’re throwing body after body at these guys and you can see Arkansas they were flustered to no end they had no answer and once they you know turned it over over and over and over and over again
And Auburn converts those turnovers into three-point plays and points points points points points it just they couldn’t keep up and I you know I think that Auburn’s going to be now a sneakier team to not only win the SEC but possibly be like a two or three seed I
Think earlier this year nobody really considered Auburn that but they are so deep so good it might suck for DFS purposes but in real life non fantasy or betting purposes this Auburn team is truly legit Wade Taylor’s a star possible SEC player of the year he’s gonna have to
Play 40 minutes in this one 83 it’s a little bit of a cheaper price for him he was just 75 against LSU we’ve seen him higher but 83 is definitely a a an upside price still for a player of his caliber don’t like Henry Coleman whatsoever High uh range outcomes
4110 going up against the Auburn front Court I don’t think so we do have a value in Hayden Hefner there at 42 that is Val viable to me 20 to 25 minutes um does project well usually the last couple of games they’ve been on not a high Fantasy Point per minute player but
At 4-2 you at least know what you’re going to get there as a value guard option then you have my man Manny OB obas starting to see his minutes trending up had a big game against Memphis and now his minutes have started to go back down and as we get into
Conference play I’m curious to see what happens there because if they don’t start playing Manny this year I I do suspect that he’ll end up being a transfer to a lower mid- major and then we’ll really see what time it is with Manny because I know a lot of you have
Heard me talk about him for a year and a half now and think that I’m wasting time doing so he is a really good basketball player he just can’t seem to fit a role on this team and then you have wild and LC at 3-3 starting games playing less
Than 10 minutes thought I was going to give you a value there huh nope not going to do it not going to happen folks all right next game BYU versus Baylor BYU coming off a tough loss now it’s it’s strange that BYU would be so uh non-competitive in that game against
Cincinnati and 7160 it’s not a a huge blowout 11 points right not a blowout at all but to lose by double digits at home against the Cincinnati team both new to the conference you just thought that they would be more competitive and this is a BYU team that is 12-2 Pop’s
Got them rolling they’re the sixth ranked defense on Ken pal 19th offense and they’re playing at 111 Tempo but they definitely look bad against Cincinnati and it’s more puzzling when you consider the fact that they got fousi trayor back who is one of their best you know Wings on the team kind of
A small ball four played only nine minutes off the bench but his presence alone disrupted everything and I’m not trying to be negative about him but you have Noah water man who’s the the seven foot kid he’s been awesome this year uh Ali Khalifa another seven-footer that they’ve been playing together both
Really strong rebounders Waterman’s been the better scorer you have Richie Saunders Off the Bench who’s you know hitting threes a Tilly Alli a tiki say that name three times fast a great rebounder getting those minutes but the mere presence of trayor and Dawson Baker who uh recently got um eligible the UC
Irvine transfer uh also his presence has hurt some of the Wings and guards so it almost seems like Pope has too many options now um and they still have Jackson Robinson who I truly believe is the best player on this team but he’s the sixth man will never probably start
Um saw his shot attempts go down and that the offense just never got into the Rhythm BYU has five players in the Evan Maya top I believe was top 60 uh for efficiency which is outstanding but that game against Cincinnati I think we’re going to see those numbers start to drop
Heavily on this team the BYU starting five has been and is subject chains D Hall no Waterman Trevon Nell Spencer Johnson and Aaliyah Khalifa or Ali Khalifa not Mia Khalifa I don’t know who that is uh but Jackson Robinson Off the Bench Richie Sanders now fusini tro back
Dawson Baker who was a alpha for UC Irvine uh not so much here in BYU and then atiki Ali ATI um this BYU team is deep not going to be great for DFS purposes and they’re going up against a Baylor team that has final four written all over them I respect the
Hell out of Baylor even in a down year Baylor is just the real deal right they have a elite coaching staff their head coach Scott drew you can never count out they have a roster that is mirroring the year they won the title with the three guards and and they’re just they’re
Looking really good however Ken pal has this 787 7 a lot of respect given to BYU because of their high efficiency rankings because of the numbers uh I don’t know if you guys watch the CBS college basketball podcasts that uh they do on YouTube they’re um they they have a a term they
Use called computer triggers and they have teams who project really well but they’re not actually that good in real life and I’m wondering if BYU ends up being a quote unquote computer tricker because they project so well but but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them lose
This game to Baylor by eight plus points and there might be a betting opportunity here for us as Baylor is three and a half Point favorites I do like that that is one of my favorite lines for a favorite of the day um I foresee them winning by 7even plus honestly total of
154 a bit higher as well looking at the various options on BYU they’re priced pretty evenly amongst themselves Nell at 7K Johnson Spencer Johnson 66 Waterman 63 Jackson Robinson 63 din Hall 62 those are the primary DFS options and like I said they’re all bunched up then you’ve
Got FR treor who’s coming into the mix at 43 Khalifa at 47 and Richie Saunders at 43 so you have some value options there um but none of them look all that great with the introduction or reintroduction I should say of trayor um if he were to get back in the
Starting lineup at 43 he looks relatively interesting you see as a starter earlier in the season he was a very productive player we’ll have to see how that works and how he gets integrated into the system to that point without him Noah Waterman has been a really consistent
Option but I was worried about him in the game against Cincinnati and definitely backed off of him I was planning to use him in that particular game ended up jumping off of him however he did still play 30 minutes he just missed a lot of shots so perhaps he’s
Still going to be somebody who matters for DF best purposes my favorite play is still Jackson Robinson but again we’re not getting a very great discount here Jackson didn’t play a lot of first half minutes in that game against ciny they did play him most of the second half
Didn’t end up producing well at all at 63 and that’s just the nature of coming off the bench being a six-man some games he’s going to be really hot in those 25 minutes other games he’s not going to contribute all that much very very difficult to project a non-starter on a
Game- to game basis not paying 7K for Nell not paying 66 for Johnson Spencer Johnson that is even though they’ve both been very good as well Baylor side is where we want to look to some of our plays but they’re also very expensive for this one and we have a very high
Scoring projected game but we’re dealing with the six rank defense in BYU and a top 70 rated defense in Baylor but offensively this team is the epitome of efficiency fourth in offense and the number one three-point shooting team in the country losses against Michigan State and Duke wins against Oklahoma
State seatan Hall Florida Oregon State and Auburn Baylor has a very strong starting five The Freshman jacobe Walter Ray J Dennis Jaylen Bridges EES Missy who has been a revelation as a seven foot freshman and Jaden nun off the bench we’re seeing a lot of Langston
Love very little kale bler which this is a bit of a Revenge narrative playing against BYU for him uh and then mirol the other freshman and Josh oguna unfortunately every day John Jonathan Chach Cham chachua is not playing very many minutes back injured banged up not
Doing a whole lot so this is a team that relies on their starting five heavily but they do go about six7 deep and Langston love does come off the bench to play a lot of minutes 34 against Oklahoma State usually good for 20 to 25
He’s only 38 so you do have a value option there if you choose to use it I think Ray J Dennis is a little bit expensive um at almost 8K he does have a strong floor but there’s an opportunity cost there and I think we can spend our
Money a little bit wiser jacobe Walter is the GBP play because he has that high 50 fantasy Point upside has scored 40 plus in two of his last three he’s the guy you want to use if you’re using a Baylor guard EES Missy at 67 I continue
To write him off as the price goes up and up and up but he is just throwing down some really strong games and he is going to be needed this is his biggest game yet going up against a very sizable BYU front Court as a seven-footer he can
Handle it will he be able to stay out of foul trouble that’s going to be the big question with Missy if he does and plays 30 plus minutes he’s certainly going to break his value four or 5x if he gets into early foul trouble and you know
Three four fouls later it’s going to be tough for him to make value against Duke 11 points 10 rebounds five blocks Monster game there against Oklahoma State in 30 minutes 13 points 10 rebounds three steals Monster game there EES Missy The Freshman is playing as well as any other freshman in the
Country in the front court and then you have Jaden none at 45 nun just he hasn’t gotten quite acclimated he’s kind of pige andh hold into this role as a a three-point sniper four five is a very good price for somebody like him because of the shot
Attempts he’s typically going to get he doesn’t contribute a lot in other category so he’s going to have to score but we at least know he’s going to play 20 to 25 minutes he did lose those minutes to Langston love last time that’s his primary competition four
Minutes and it’s going to be a whoever’s hot between him and love but jayen nun at 45 is certainly in the conversation as a value option there um we know none with how good he had played in years past and on the VCU Squad 41% three-point shooter for Baylor he’s a
46% point shooter uh that’s just like I said his role if he’s knocking down shots the 4 five price just will not hold up he’ll be optimal for sure if the shots aren’t falling he’s not going to end up on the optimal doesn’t have the stats to support it all right last game
On the Slate Duke versus Pittsburgh uh this is a five and a half point spread in favor of Duke 146 total now Duke had the DVP spot the other day over the weekend there against Notre Dame Notre Dame actually made it a game and Kyle filipowski played 35 minutes 35
Empty minutes seven points five rebounds four assists it was our guy Mark Mitchell who I’ve been saying for the last year and a half I think he’s the best Collegiate player in this freshman class I think he’s the best player from a Collegiate standpoint in last year’s
Duke freshman class I no matter how many different ways I say it and repeat it it stays the same I keep on waiting for it to happen it seems it’s starting to happen he’s train transforming he’s waking up Mitchell has become a guy that we can suddenly pay an upper tier price
And feel good about doing so 26 plus fantasy points in four of his last five that includes back-to-back games of 35 Plus 31 minutes against Syracuse 216 and3 the best game of his career against Notre Dame and he took full advantage of the DVP they’re not
Great in the front Court 23 points 14 rebounds 45 and a half fantasy points just an absolute Primo game on 12 shot attempts the epitome of efficiency now he’s 77 and I’ll admit that’s going to be tougher was fortunate enough to use him last late at sub 7K but now going to 77
I think it’s one of those situations where if you had been using him and I know very few had you can keep using him and you could pay that price if you haven’t been using him now going up to almost 8K I don’t think you could start
That’s kind of a tough get and Pittsburgh is certainly going to present more of a uh resistance against what Mitchell wants to do as opposed to what Notre Dame and Syracuse were able to do Pittsburgh has hit some some walls lately but they’re still a better defensive unit most of the time than
What Notre Dame and Syracuse provides um but I do like the idea of riding the hot hand there with Mitchell and I’m definitely going to have some exposure there other Duke option here you have Philip Kowski is the most expensive player at 92 I think he’s probably going
To be lower owned so that gives you some gpp upside but and this is the cheapest price he’s been pretty much all season but he’s definitely a guy that’s more of an a deep alt play for me not somebody that I’m going to be using all that
Much um Jeremy roach at 72 not super high on him he did put up almost 40 against Notre Dame we know he’s going to play lots of minutes a veteran presence but 7 do I typically don’t find myself uh feeling too bad about fading him and typically am not losing too many slates
By doing so so I’m not really looking there either the rest of the Duke starters have been Caleb Foster and Jared McCain we did see The Return of Tyrese Proctor here recently um against the Queens Co or against Queens College played 18 minutes off the bench after missing three games 27 minutes against
Syracuse 22 against Notre Dame very good hit two threes against against sra’s 14 points four assists not so good against Notre Dame you can’t really consider Proctor until he is in the starting lineup the nice thing is he’s only 47 so that price has tumbled down and
Torpedoed below 5K however if he doesn’t start he’s still going to be kind of a tougher option there at 47 um we know he’s probably playing 20 minutes though the shot attempts may or may not be there if he moves into the starting lineup at 47
He’s definitely going to be a play uh and then lastly you have Jared McCain sitting there at 71 that’s probably priced out for me I know he’s had some big games recently but I’m not necessarily looking there and then Caleb Foster who’s 4-2 had some pretty tough outings low Fantasy Point per minute
Player now that he’s 4-2 compared to the 47 of Proctor if you want to use a Duke value Proctor would be a much better option than Foster even if he’s not starting all right sorry um damn kids man damn kids start coming down here I’m gonna make start making you pick plays all
Right on the Pittsburgh side Blake Henson has been our guy 7.2k he’s really since conference play has begun been more of an afterthought he did put up a nice number against Louisville but everybody tends to do that I think I’m kind of looking at the fade blank Hinson spot for now which
Everyone else is too which tells us for large field we’re going to at least get leverage and low roster ship when it comes to Blake Hinson still playing over 30 minutes great overall look there but has not been producing just been terribly inefficient breaking shots um
And is also a big Fowler his fouls lately have taken him out of commission but the minutes have still found their way there the rest of the starting five between Carlton Carrington Zack Austin galand low and guo Diaz Graham all varying levels of Interest feder Rico
Feder Rico now coming off the bench my favorite play on this team continues to be guo Diaz Graham higher usage player very effective shot blocking machine usage rate starting to go up 36% from long range gets steals racks up those stocks very good overall play 6K may not
Be that appealing to most but uh his worst game in the last five was against Louisville ironically he’s been much better in those competitive games 27 against UNCC 28 against Syracuse um he had a couple of 30s against the nonconference opponents so I’m really big fan of Diaz Graham not a a necessity
On this slate because there are so many viable forwards but he is more of a luxury look at 6K but when it comes to any other Pittsburgh play outside of Carrington Diaz Graham is my favorite now ish legot did Miss with a shoulder injury that he’s been dealing with for
Several games now and you’ll see right when it started to happen his production tailed off very very Troublesome against Syracuse and North Carolina still played lots of minutes so kudos to him for trying to tough it out um wasn’t able to do so against Louisville see if he returns here
Against Duke 69 it’s not as if he’s cheap to to be able to use but if he misses again that’s when we see jaland low jump into the starting lineup played the 27 minutes against Louisville he’s only 4K back-to-back games over 20 minutes 17 plus fantasy points in those
Back-to-back games as well so we’ll see how that works out it is a later game once we get the news on legot otherwise Carrington is a strong gpp look at 75 one of those quote unquote luxury plays he has a high floor upside maybe not there for slate breaking purposes but
This kid’s pretty much putting up 30 after 30 he is only a freshman there’s a lot more development to come there for Carrington but he’s been very very good higher price for him for sure but you’re G to get some nice gpp leverage out of
Him as a sub 10% own type of play all right that is the game by game breakdown there now I usually like to talk about a core and any available prize picks or prop betting opportunities this is such a wideopen slate as of now pre you know running
Projections this is going to be my coure and it’s subject to change tomorrow as the article run you know turns out and as I uh fine-tune some of the projection sheet that I’m I’m working on uh but right right now I do have three players in particular that I am rather fond of
And I’m leaning heavily towards which like I said is subject to change um starting with the West Virginia side just going to go right back to raay battle like I truly hope people are just going to be like damn he had a bad game I guess he’s no good and like walk away
From him without understanding the situation but 74 against Kansas State like I’m expecting him to take 20 shots and get back on track so Ray battle is core play number one and it’s pretty easy to click him in and and roll with that um core play number two comes to us
From Wake Forest you have those Trio of guards so theoretically you can plug any of them in here between bopy Miller uh Cameron hriff or Hunter Salis I do lean towards Hunter Salis as the number one play um even when wake forus is struggling or sales’s shot is struggling
He has still been able to pretty much make Val or put up a solid number because he’s taking so many damn shots 21 shots against Miami 16 against BC 15 in a their last non-conference game 14 against Virginia Tech like Hunter Salis is just getting any shot that he
Possibly wants in this offense so Ian there and it’s not as if booby Miller is not taking a ton of shots he took 19 against Miami cam hildr took 15 but when it comes down to it the consistent volume has been there for Salis we’ve seen Miller and H go through struggles
Periodically Salis just hasn’t had those same level of struggles supp poort play number two Hunter Salas and we have two high volume scores in Salis and Ray battle that we’re going to run as a core now this third spot has to be of value and there are a ton of viable values
That I like we’ve talked about a a a tremendous amount of them you know from right sell on Alabama to Xavier Johnson of Indiana uh you got Dylan du Su on Texas but I do think we have to look at the Bor situation here against BYU a matchup
That they have to feel confident in they run a real short rotation right now in between Langston love and jayen nun I think that’s where I’m I’m leaning to for core play number three now I’ll be interested to see where our projection sheet has the top values um right now I
Feel like none at 45 kind of feels like a a freebie but very easily if he bricks all of his shots love gets in there that play could turn ugly very very fast the uh play the value play that I have that’s a favorite that is it’s like you
Know the Posh playes type value would be Dylan D Su the only reason I’m not cing him is because I realize without a 20 to 25 minute guarantee it’s hard to sell a play like that but in gpps which I’m going to be playing mostly of tomorrow
Instead of the normal single entry stuff I do I will have a huge amount of Dylan D Su just so we’re clear um I think he’s going to have a very nice game and I’m hoping that Terry gets some sense knocked into him he plays him for a lot
More than he has been um real quick looking at the prize picks again they usually post the fantasy score category for prize picks in the morning of afternoon of so usually the night before when I do these shows I don’t have that available to me so usually have to rely
On P um and other categories like that the Points categories here you’re looking at the Wake Forest guys Hunter Salis has a 16-point prop that may seem high but coming in against FSU he’s gonna take 18 to 20 shots and generally with Wake Forest scoring 80 plus points
He’s usually going to be knocking on the door of 20 so we’re going to go with his over 16 points then we’re going to go over to Ray battles over 16 and a half real points I think in non Houston matchups or uh Oklahoma for example which I think could clamp battle I’m
Going to be taking any Ray battle prop under 18 real points so over 16 and a half points for Ray battle that’s a relatively easy one for me to take um and then there was one more here let’s just double check uh Jamal Mashburn of New Mexico
They’re playing UNLV just got back into the mix um after missing a ton of time he has a prop of 16 and a half take a lot of unders but that is an under that I do want to take um Mashburn was back in the starting lineup scored 12 points
Took nine shots in their game against Wyoming and you look at the other games he’s now been back for three straight has scored 1713 and 12 playing 27 minutes he’s just not hisself yet I mean he missed a month of the season um so I’m taking that under 16 and a half real
Points for Jamal mashor they do have the Utah State game on here let’s see if they have our guy great oore uh P it’s 32 we’ll see if they give us a fantasy score on great oore he’s awesome we love him but I’m not taking P for 32 that’s just crazy
Um and then real quick looking at some lines Georgia Tech versus Notre Dame Notre Dame is six and a half Point dogs on the road against Georgia Tech I like the way Georgia Tech’s playing they seem much improved to me total is 133 and a half by the way
Um I never thought I would take Georgia Tech in any bets but going up against Notre Dame which is arguably as bad if not worse than Louisville uh I like Tech straight up on the money line but I’m also going to sprinkle a little bit
There I’ll see if I can get a better line by the morning but uh I think they beat Notre Dame especially with the way they’re playing and if cavant is an actual thing now they should have no problem uh winning that one um I like South Carolina plus 12 talked
About that a little bit uh Houston versus Iowa State I think the under 131 and a half has to be in consideration and then the Wake Forest uh minus two and a half against Florida state will be on the Wake Forest side there player props and combos they’re not giving us Ray battle
Combo prop I wonder why is DK DK must be scared they are giving us a 16 and a half Point prop for Ray battle at minus 130 and they had been giving us a combo for him in his first couple games back at 22 and a half and 23 and a half just
Slamming the over on those I didn’t take the Houston game of course but he hit the over easily in his other games looks like they’re not offering a combo prop for him at this moment which is probably a smart decision um I do like Hunter Salis obviously his
Point prop there at 16 and a half but we do have a combo of 22 and a half minus 115 against Florida state would be taking that I think he’s going to score 20 re so it shouldn’t be too difficult for him to be over that prop at all and
Then Cola State taking on Boise State NE Clifford who has been just as good if not better than Isaiah Stevens and easily the number two player on the team has a a p of 18 and a half at minus 120 that’s a fairly easy even on the road
Against Boise State over uh you’re looking at a guy who’s you know going to get 12 to 15 points seven to nine rebounds that’s a very low number I’m not sure the the other day Nebraska is on the Slate Bryce Williams had a p of 17 and a half I didn’t like him
Necessarily as a as a play in that game draw a blank who they actually played but Bryce Williams is a starter plays big minutes take shots contributes in all categories it was against Wisconsin uh it was an easy over he had 10 points four rebounds six assists hits over 17
And a half so sometimes when you get those sub20 pasas for players like that it’s kind of like I don’t even really care who they’re playing I just know they’re going to get there so over 18 and a half for NE cliffer that’s probably actually one of my top prop
Bets that I’ll have in the tracker tomorrow for what it’s worth and I think that will that’ll do it for us um see if there’s any others yeah we’ll talk about them more in the morning and throughout the day that will do it we will have the uh
Article up you know sometime in the afternoon that’ll be a rehash of what we talked about today and a player pool form we’ll also have a snapshot of the Fantasy Point projections that we’ve been fine tuning and working on and then much more prop talk from prize pick
Underdog and all from the the ftn CBB DFS Community it’s not just me putting info in there which is what I love about a group that we have there let’s get this 10K to First would love to see somebody from either the Discord site or the uh the show you know audience
Hitting that one that would be a great great feather in our cap or winning the bracket Mania seat number seven let’s get after it we’ll be back tomorrow night same time same Place 900 p.m PST to break down the Wednesday slate thanks a lot everyone for joining me we’ll see you guys next Time you come back around
4 Comments
16:00 Seton Hall vs Georgetown
29:00 South Carolina vs Alabama
40:00 Missouri vs Kentucky
53:20 Indiana vs Rutgers
1:03:00 Texas vs Cincy
1:14:00 Houston vs Iowa State
1:20:00 West Virginia vs Kansas State
1:33:00 Okie State vs Texas Tech
1:37:15 Auburn vs Texas A&M
1:44:15 BYU vs Baylor
1:53:00 Duke vs Pittsburgh
Great sow Dub!!
ive watched 4 shows this year and Walt has never gone 3/3 in his "core". Hunter Sallis? 12 game slate 3 should be easy money.
Great call on Disu!