Cutmaker Jeff is back with his best bets and preview of the 2024 Sony Open!
Welcome to the cut maker podcast your home for all of your PGA gambling action my name is Jeff cely AKA Indie Jeff or cut maker Jeff and this week we will be talking about the Sony Open at w w Country Club uh in Hawaii here um going
To be a fun tournament uh it’s one of these that I think um a lot of different people can win um I was looking some of the odds of some of the historical winners and we’ve had 50 to1 win 18 to1 65 50 and 401 pre-tournament winners
Here over the past five years so uh going to be really interesting um short course I you know you guys have all heard me say a million times um if it’s short course play web Simpson I don’t think we’re going to be going down that
Track this week but it is about a 7,000 yard par 70 very short course just really going to be looking at approach and guys who can make 10 to 15 foot putts pretty straightforward a quick look at the market uh Oar opened as a lowest odds on the board and then
Drifted back up to about 18 to1 um other guys we see it 18 to1 TL Hatton Matt Fitzpatrick o o as I mentioned is there um and then you’ve got Henley Harmon Connors and then a group of Chris Kirk who won last week Eric Cole then JT
Postman fala benan um sewu Kim who just won here and what a crazy tournament that was I had Buckley and he R sewu Kim chipped in and ran him down last year um Justin Rose Harris English whose prices Dro Like a Rock um d McCarthy and Cam
Davis and some others um so as I look at this tournament um I think when I when I look at from a betting perspective um I I mean o bear is really good and uh he had a bad leak week last week putted horribly last week
He lost three and a half Strokes putting last week but prior to that his put or putter had been on fire um I think we’ll probably see a bounce back from him with the putter this week and approach uh his approach game is is really topnotch I I
Think we’re going to see Oar win at least one tournament this year would not surprise me if he wins two um I bet him early to win the waste management at 40 to1 I think he’s down to 20 to one um but yeah I mean he’s he’s pretty
Incredible top 20 certainly an approach and then when you look at you know 10- foot putts or so he’s also um you know up there in top 10 10 so approach putting putting on Bermuda um all things that that uh oer does well so of guys who are in that price range he’s
Probably my favorite um and then I but I that would be the you know they were super low I do I like Eric Cole a lot this week um there’s a lot to like about Cole uh I I think Corey Connors is going to be a very very heavily bet and very
Popular in DFS from this range but I’m going to fade Cory Connor and go all in on Cole here I’m going to play top 20 you can find like plus 140 plus 150 play that for a full unit top 10 for uh plus 300 for half a unit top five plus 600
For a quarter unit and then you know winner for a tenth of a unit or so give us about a seven unit win if he wins we’re risking less than two um he’s the best approach player over the last 24 rounds he’s 12th in putting from 10 to
20 feet and his on Bermuda green so a lot to like about Eric Cole here he’s he was solid last week again finishing 14th despite losing three Strokes off the te if any of you guys watch like Max hom hit like a 475 yard Drive last week so I
Mean it really he he was behind the eightball a little bit there um still finished well T you know 14th I don’t see him losing that three Strokes off the te again this week simply because a lot of guys aren’t even going to be hitting driver on a lot of these holes
So Cole has top fives in four of his last six events that’s crazy uh I expect another top five this week I won’t be the least bit surprised if he wins really really like Cole this week a lot another guy in this range who’s actually
30 to one and is um higher odds than Cole and higher odds than a lot of guys um that frankly I think are he’s better than is sah theala who finished second last week guys I just don’t think theala is getting anywhere near the recognition that he deserves so in his last 50
Events fala has seven top 20s four top 10 eight top fives eight top fives and a win um that is the same percentage of top 20s as Justin Thomas and the same number of top excuse me same percentage of top fives as Justin Thomas and the same number of top fives is Colin
Moral yet you know he’s does not get anywhere near um the recognition that those guys do last week the gala finished second as I mentioned gaining almost three Strokes on on approach and four strokes putting he has gained four or more Strokes putting in eight of his
Last 15 events so an over half half of his last 15 events he’s gained four strokes putting and he is gaining a a stroke on the field per round he’s just averaging getting a stroke on the field per round it’s unbelievable really interesting um stat I saw is his birdie
Conversion rate is actually 5% higher than two or average but his three putt percentage inside 25 feet is less than a third of the tour average the guy doesn’t three putt if he you’re going to make kogi it’s because he’s going to hit a wayward drive or something along those
Lines his irons are dialed in his putter is Elite right now and the gal at top 20 at plus 170 feels like an absolute gift I’m playing him the exact same way I’m playing Cole as I mentioned with the the 10 TW the 20105 and then wind break down
There um another guy I like this week whose price has dropped like a rock I bet him when it first came out at 60 he’s down to 40 That’s Adam senson he’s solid off the tea approach game’s been sharp his putter can get hot he’s gained
Two or more Strokes putting in four of his last 10 events um the forms there he’s finished inside the top 26 in five of his last events so I like fencing there um I don’t know that he’ll win this week but I do like top 20 at two to
One a lot um I will throw a few bucks on the top 10 and on the on the uh on the outright but um really really like senson um and top you know top 20 play at two to one or so so um and I’m just gonna kind of go through DraftKings
Pricing and and outrights a little bit and kind of talk about guys who I’m gonna play and fade I mentioned Oar um I still think he’s a I think he’s a great DFS play this week because I think he will be unowned after last week and being the most expensive guy um I’m
Probably gonna pass on Hatton and Fitzpatrick just not they’re fine it’s just um not for me or right now um I mentioned theala I think he’s tremendous uh be interesting to try to build an O theala lineup I think that would be very difficult but um unique um Brian Harman
Can always get there but I’m not gonna bet him or play him this week um Corey Connor I think is gonna be super popular I like Cory Connor could finish top 20 um but I don’t I mean he just doesn’t putt well enough for me to for me to bet
Him to win um I think he’s fine but I prefer Cole in that same range um Russell Henley is you know seen success here so that’s another guy um but he’s he’s okay Chris Kirk played great last week I don’t know what to do with Will
Alat torus I’m just gonna wait he’s 50 to one I mean he’s 50 to one because he hasn’t really I mean he hasn’t played golf right I mean playing the Hero World Challenge was 11 over I mean that’s horrendous so I am not going to be on
Willie z um at all in anything I don’t know too terribly many people that will uh let’s see others of note here benan benan played fantastic um last week and I want to look at Ben on a little more here um as I go to my DK
Salary he’s down here with Poston who’s I love again this week Ben on gosh he I mean it’s crazy his putter his putter was really good his putter could be can get hot and just be absolutely horrible BMW he lost seven shots putting he gained two and a half
This week the Windom he gained almost six shots six Strokes putting that’s insane benan is in like lowkey good form three top fives in his last five events is really really good for Ben on obviously the BMW was a while ago but you like to see that he’s one of the
Social media favorites so like to see Ben on doing good things um other guys like JT posting a lot um some longer shot bomb guys um I’m interested in some let me actually not jump down there yet Hideki pass seiw one last year um irons have not
Been good lately putter has not been good lately I’m off on C sewo um 35 to one no no no just no chance um Cam Davis no McCarthy me obviously he a good putter but no not for me Harris English this price has come down a lot I know
Jeff Sherman bet him at like 55 to one he’s down 35 now if you know me you know I’m always a big Harris English guy um yeah I mean I can get behind English here he’s fine um I don’t like 35 to one um I might look to maybe bet him live
But or maybe play some matchups with Harris English I’m goingon to you know I’m going to look at match ups here in a second um Rose no Jagger bomb Keegan Bradley no you gotta make putts his obviously he’s iron’s gonna be leite but no hadwin no no Alex norin is
Interesting um approach putting really puts well on Bermuda really well in Bermuda um yeah yeah I like some Alex noren um CER no Lucas Glover dude man this guy I mean his last week he gained seven and a half Strokes ta to Green five Strokes on approach his irons are freaking
Fire but he turned into Lucas Glover last week with the putter again he lost seven strokes putting I don’t know how he finished 19 under losing seven strokes putting I would have figured he would have finished dfl so I mean I guess kudos to Glover for not finishing
Dfl but man that uh that putter brutally tough scene um I mentioned senson H God obviously I love Tom hogi all the time um not gonna play hogi this week although I wouldn’t be mad at you if you did um Luke list is actually neutral with his putter now which is
Downright incredible he gained putting gained Strokes putting last week um wasn’t great off the tea which is a little unusual his irons has just been okay lately God Lucas putter is crazy he’s actually like putting well um yeah so many to keep an eye on if
Luke list his iron is heat up boy if he’s actually putting at all he is uh he’s gonna be a beast um let’s see who else we go down here JJ spawn looks good um he’s interesting Keith Mitchell pass Aaron Ry um interesting yeah uh approach is pretty
Good not a great Bermuda putter interesting Ry Grio pass Billy hoe hard pass Justin uh Ben Griffin God Ben Griffin’s Bermuda putting is really good really really really good uh his approach has been okay uh I don’t really care about off the T Ben Griffin’s worth a conversation um
Patrick Rogers no no no all these guys in this kind of range no um Nick Hardy wow uh his approach has been pretty good putting’s neutral for 7100 and 150 to one you could do a lot worse than Nick Hardy I don’t know what Gary Woodland has had success here um and you
Know his metric he grades out well but he had like brain surgery a couple months ago um so I’m GNA wait and see on Gary Woodland be interested to see if people will play him at all um gosh let me see who else is of Interest down here and the sixes oh
Vince Wy Vince Way’s actually a guy who’s going to be kind of interesting um pretty good putter um yeah I mean decent I think he’s a decent play at 6900 um the gim Reaper not a good Bermuda putter I love the gim Reaper but
Man he is not a good Bermuda putter um I don’t know for you could do worse with this price range if you’re playing DFS than the gim Reaper but um God Sheamus power 6,900 wow that is that’s pretty crazy um Davis Riley no Vince Wy yeah where’s my
Guy Tyler Duncan I call him Tim Duncan but um I like Duncan this week where did he go Ryan Moore is approaching putting I mean that’s Ryan Moore Ryan Moore for 6,700 yeah Tyler Duncan um really good vermuda putter lately um irons haven’t been great but Tyler Duncan for 180 to one and
6600 Indiana guy I think somebody you can get behind um and that’s probably as far down the board as I would play this week I’m going to look at some matchups here real quick just this heck of it and see if there’s anybody can I jump out okay so like a bear
Fitzpatrick uh I prefer a bear to Fitzpatrick a lot of course I bet in last week G burn me but I can see going back to this well at like bet online you get plus 100 um you know close to that so I yeah I don’t mind if it’s p uh uh
Obar over uh Fitzpatrick this week um let me see who else umart Manhattan Cole Henley wow you can get you can get Eric Cole at plus 125 against Russell Henley Russell Henley is good here but I like Cole plus plus 125 a lot in that matchup um Cory Connor against Chris
Kirk Chris Kirk’s been really good here too and that’s pass for me no no no let me see what else they we have matched up here um Benny on SEIU Benny on even money against sewu who is not in that is tempting that’s a bet online um Ben onig against posted I can’t
Posted yeah um Ros against coocher English 144 overi that’s interesting senson against hadwin sign me up yeah that’s a bet online senson minus 120 I am in on that for sure Alex norin Jager Bomb I would take Alex or plus money over Jager Bomb I like that um Glover
Body huh let me look at something here me see what I mean yeah now I’m to pass gun if I had any faith in Glover’s putter I would take Glover in that match up but I don’t luk list Patrick Rogers I would take luk list I didn’t B that on DraftKings give
Him money on DraftKings minus 110 I’m in I like llz there EVR Kurt Kitty no I was I liked EVR last week I’m out on him this week Billy Hall against Willie Z no pass um Norman hogi I think Norman actually might be a good bet plus money against Hogie
Um anybody else jump out to me here web Simpson at plus5 against Alexander Bor I don’t know what to think about that um gim Reaper minus 115 against Michael Kim Michael Kim’s actually pretty good Chris Kirk posted yeah that’s tough Pinnacles so yeah see DraftKings others we’ve got
Oar at plus 100 against Brian Harman yes please I I will bet that 100% Brian harman’s been fantastic in the last year or so but I will bet that for sure I probably lose it but I’m I will bet that um probably I will probably put
That um let’s see it’s Patrick I would bet Cory Connor’s over Fitzpatrick for sure that’s one I will play um let’s see Henley over Hatton probably uh Jager Bomb I’ll play Jager Bomb over Nick Taylor um Chris Kirk Ben on last one 12 I’m tempted to take Chris Kirk there and
Just ride that wagon I’ll take Alex noren plus 100 over hadwin pole Cole Poston I like both these guys a lot I’m gonna pass um senson minus 120 over Glover yes please I’m in on that one and theala minus or R Andrew putham yes
Please I’m in on that one so there we go bunch of matchups um you guys get a pretty good sense of where where I’m where I’m at this week uh we’ll obviously have guests as the year goes on but just getting things fired up getting the ball rolling on
2024 hope everybody had a great New Year um we will talk with you all next week make sure again you follow our Twitter at cut maker pod you can find me on or Twitter at whatever it’s called now at cut maker Jeff um and then I will be on
We on follow the money tomorrow morning and uh talking a little Sony again and any questions just hit me up on on X Twitter whatever and uh talk to you guys next week thanks guys
