Ryan and Andy return from Christmas break to go over the Sentry at Kapalua. Course Preview, Stats that Matter, Live Custom Model Build and a few bets they’re looking at this week.
0:00 Intro
5:00 Course Preview: Plantation Course
12:00 Stats that Matter this Week
39:30 Bets we Like
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I am we’re back we’re not gone for very long but we are back 2024 Century at the plantation at capala our betting preview here at bets birs golf I am excited to uh get in this little pocket time here this is my little time with Andy uh every Tuesday Morning joining me as
Always Andy Moler what’s going on bud it’s Wednesday Bud yeah this this week this week got weird we had some know Tech issues we had some scheduling issues the fact that we had you know one fewer days normally this will be 11 Eastern on Tuesdays in case you’re wondering that is going to
Be a time we’re going to stick to from now on God help us uh God willing the creek don’t rise otherwise no I’m excited this is a it’s not a full field but it’s a it’s a real tournament it is the start of the 2024 season we’ve got
Things sorted out we got a pretty good field because it is you know the Tournament of Champions are just not calling it that anymore so basically uh anybody who won who wants to compete obviously some of the live guys are not invited Rory is traditionally not someone who comes here because he does
Like to play those three or four events early in the season over in the middle League East which is ironic I guess all things considered considering his stances he did do uh he did do some uh Patrick Peterson backpedaling today though elite elite cornerback Patrick or
Rory mroy which whatever I’m fine I do love the golf drama and whatnot that comes around with everything but no it’s it’s a good field right because not only not only the you know the winners but they’re adding anyone who was in the top 50 so it’s basically just a bunch of
Good golfers small field no cut Resort course yeah like you said we dropped the Tournament of Champions moniker because they have expanded the field because you do have the uh top 50 finishers that didn’t win last season’s FedEx Cup Standing so we got 59 of the 60 because
As you mentioned Rory starting next week in Dubai our last two defending champs are not here as well obviously we have John ROM and uh cam Smith are now uh you know they are growing the game different they’re different tour currently so they are growing game yeah obviously having
Uh yeah but this changed now too we we also have this as a uh a signature event we are done with elevated events we’re done with designated events uh we have Signature Events for 2024 and this is the start of the season so this is like typically the start of the calendar year
Because the last handful last decade or so we’ve had that wonky like you know swing season stuff where like the fortnet was you know the start of the Season we’re done with that this is actually the start of the Season we you know we’ve we’re starting it here and
Because it’s a a Signature Events you know the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow here the FedEx Cup points attached to it are massive as well so we do have uh you know incentive for these guys to you know hit the ground running
And U you Resort course no no cut events we have a bunch of those this year we a lot of these Signature Events are going to be that limited field no cut which I think I don’t think we love but we’ll see how it kind of comes out and you
Know I think I I like having a full field I like having cut some of those are still going to be like that but uh this is kind of a new era uh and maybe again another transition year we thought very much 2023 was a transition year but
2024 feels like a a transition year in terms of where the professional game is as well so uh yeah but you know again we get the Aesthetics of kaaloa in the plantation course we get like PM golf because of like the time time zone difference so especially if you’re like
You know Central or east coast you’re going to get like Prime Time Golf golf here uh on the weekend which is just absolutely lovely tune in and you know obviously you know Maui is is a fantastic scene for for golf to have in the background so it’s a great way to
Start the season and then get us going here good timing for that too with the distinct lack of Thursday night football this week true distinct lack of bowl games until we get to the National Championship next week so Thursday and yeah like you said East Coast even even
Mountain and Pacific guys it’s not like it’s you know in the early hours of the morning it is still afternoon into the evening for some that you can watch golf all Thursday afternoon on Thursday and Friday that’s that’s going to be lovely for me obviously I do enjoy this
Tournament I love uh I’ve played here this uh not at this course at the other course on the same Resort which is apparently even easier as I go shoot like 110 and then you go I think I tell this story every year but it’s like oh
This is this is a long course for me this is actually kind of hard then you go out there and watch you know somebody win this event every year with like 25 under and that’s kind of where we’re at is as we quick we’ll kind of transition
Over here not going to be a a deep deep dive into this course there’s not a ton to say about it but you know there there’s a few things and definitely if you want a deeper dive uh I will link Ron’s course preview in the show notes
Here that’s a good one if you want to read he is putting even more extents of course previews together this year but it is an easyish par three I mean it is like we said a resort course it consistently will rank as one of the easier forces on the tour the score like
We said low to mid 20s um somebody what was what was cam Smith score in like 2022 34 under yeah 34 under so I mean if if the winds don’t kick up off the ocean and it’s just nice out you could land a 747 on these Fairways even if you miss
Them it’s not an issue there’s some downhill run outs where you can drive the ball a country mile the greens are fairly iable and I mean you’re just going to give yourself a ton like basically hitting 18 greens is very distinct possibility for some of these
Guys they all have a bird or better rate 15 of the 18 holes have a birdi or better rate of 133% of higher it’s it’s it is truly a second shot birdie Fest kind of course get there get to the green putw and Bermuda I mean a lot of
It is maybe some people who don’t play well here that’s the only thing that they’re going to struggle with is like oh I just I couldn’t make my putts because I don’t play all that well in Bermuda or the the slow greens kind of
Messed me up a little and I just I shot you know I couldn’t get anything lower than a 68 all week I like oh well you finished 35th at 18 under yeah is uh you know there’s some interesting quirks the course I mean it is obviously I think as you said you the
Massive Fairways when you when guys miss Fairways here it’s typically because they out drove the Fairway like they there’s so much run out and the elevation changes that because you have some of these uh just insane downhill uh shots where you just get so much extra
Carry and then run out too so uh especially if it’s like dried out we don’t have any rain and it’s not windy like you know Mist Fairways typically are long more so than like shanked left or right which is definitely interesting it also is very hard to miss the greens
But because like there are they’re huge but they’re tiered so you want to be in the right spot of the green so you know we will you know participate with a drinking game with us this season we’re going to say hey this is the second shot
Course um that’s probably going to be 85 90% of the courses are a second shot course uh because but again like off the team matters so little here even distance because I think everyone kind of gets distance when you look at like the longest drives of the year last year
I think like the top six or seven are here like the majority of the top 20 are all here even guys that actually aren’t known for distance whatsoever could just catch the right Hill the right lie and and get some run out so um before we
Jump into it too want to let folks know we’re really excited about a couple of things we have going on this year one is our uh our database now coing at the rabbit hole we’re gonna you know go down the rabbit hole and and uh kind of model
Some stuff out for you too if you want to get access to it we’ve partnered with Vivid picks to bring you a really easy way to claim a free no strings attached 2024 season with us at bsbs golf um you can head over to the site link it here
In the show notes as well you basically if you’re not familiar with Vivid pic Vivid Seats it’s the same company Vivid piic is like a pick them site similar to some other ones out there if you know like Underdog or prize picks um if you sign up with them use promo code bet
Spurs golf deposit and play $5 they will match your deposit up to up to 250 so if you want to play over there with us we’ll have some vivid content all season long as well I’ll maybe talk about on the shows I’ll have an article as well
Uh but you can do it for just $ five doll in play and you can play other sports you want to like play Vivid picks for NFL football playoffs this week you do that as well playoffs next week like whatever you don’t have to play it on
Golf but use promo code betws golf when you sign up at Vivid uh and you can get you’ll get an email and you get access to our entire season all the Articles tools bets Discord all that for five bucks so more info in the show notes just go to betsports golf.com you’ll
Find an article with all the details over there as well so really excited about that partnership this year we’ll be talking about it quite a bit five bucks is less than 200 because that’s what the full price for the which and I honestly I think it’s a very reasonable
Price for a custom stats database that lets you build custom models save it and not only that but and something we we were trying to do last year and we were just needed to update a little more of the tech which we have over the course of the
Offseason you with the access can look at our models it’s just G be under like hey there’s a button expert models I already got mine saved mine’s pretty simplistic this week I’m probably gonna update it but uh every week uh Ron Nunan and myself will put our models in there
And if you have access you can just go look at how I rank the 59 golfers this week according to you know and I’m going to label them how I’m using it this is more of a course fit model because I know all these golfers are pretty good
It’s not a there’s not a big Delta between 1 and 59 like we have between you know some of the hey Scotty’s in this tournament but there’s also some Monday qualifiers like there’s a big difference between guys like that obviously here it’s a smaller Gap like the NFL compared to college football
Kind of stuff but this week I I did go with a course fit one and I think Ryan’s gonna kind of show you what he put together for this week as well yeah we’ll walk through we’ll just kind of talk through I think the stats that
Matter see what it spits out uh and then kind of go through the betting board as you said it’s you know other than Rory we’re we’re loaded in terms of uh of what we have here so uh yeah I’m again I love this course so much um I just as
It’s nice because you know you and I are like just kneee in football so like it’s really hard to like flip the switch and go to golf and then like it’s just really it’s really nice to have it here where we can just it’s nice to have on
The backgrounds it makes you know we’re both in like the Midwest it’s cold weather and you just see kaaloa and it’s like all right we’re in it it makes you want to take a vacation I am going to I’m going to Napa in a few weeks it’s
Not quite as warm there but man it does make you want to go back and yeah and obviously if you like scenery in good-looking golf courses it’s gorgeous um it was a little away from the fires the fires were in Lina this is uh a little closer to I don’t know like uh
That that beach you know that beach with the the black uh the big black Cliff that they show every time you watch when you watch the Maui Invitational it’s the same like b-roll footage they use all the same shots going in and out of commercials you’re going to see a bunch
Of whales cresting and like that it’s very beautiful so yeah thewa theal is a popular name this week but I don’t know let’s uh let’s kind of talk about stats that matter for the week because I think there are you know certain skill sets that play better here if you’re
Good at certain things we’ll see how much of that we overlap with because I have a few thoughts I don’t know let’s start with you what do you think Ryan uh in terms of what matters here because we mentioned too it’s a second shot course now again we have a unique
Track too we’re a par 73 uh and it is it is long but it does not play long and when you read the quotes uh Andy’s experience aside for these guys this does not play long um you have a um you you get the the extra par 4 uh instead
Of the par three and you get a lot of wedges these guys are hitting driver and wedge and a lot like partial wedges because you have a lot of when you look at like what’s you know higher than a normal standard event it’s like the sub
100 range so you’re getting a lot of like it’s almost like short game extended um because this is where we talked about where you have like the runoff into the rough because you outd drove the Fairway here so I’m approach but approach from like really close in matters you talked about slow Bermuda
Greens I think that that’s impactful here too I think overall experience playing here matters a little bit too you do have some trying to like find correlat courses I think you do see a little bit of like and this is kind of crazy because you’re gonna have a you
Know a guy probably if the weather holds finishing in like the upper 20s Augusta gets kind of called on a little bit because you have you know the wide open Fairways you’re not really punished off the te in terms of like Wayward drives distance helps but I’m not giving
Distance any Credence this week because I do think you see you know everyone kind of you know pop in uh in distance here so like it helps a little bit but like everyone’s reaching the par fives and everyone has a wedge in here so I want you to be really good with your
Wedge um and I want you to be able to score you got to get burries and bunches take advantage of the par fives uh be able to you know knock some birdies out at a higher rate on the par fours as well so
Um can you pull me up here is this uh I don’t know why I can’t share this so I have to I see my little screen there we go awesome all right well let’s walk through this here uh again this is the first time you’ve seen this is our
Rabbit Hole this is again our customizable stat database where you can build custom models it is very very straightforward and easy to use if you don’t know how you want to get some help there’s a little tutorial button here uh that’s for me last year I could probably
Update it we are pushing through another massive Tech uh load here in the next probably 24 to 48 hours and going to have some even more filters uh and stats here there are stats and filters in this tool that you cannot use anywhere else uh any other spots that allow you to do
This uh we have some unique stats that you cannot put into pre-tournament customizable rankings uh you also cannot take and cut it up into a CSV and do other stuff with it uh and you cannot see anyone else’s ranking so we do feel like we have some unique selling
Propositions here for you that I think are uh are fun to play around with and again for five bucks check that out on the Vivid deal so but let’s go through it here I mean the Benny board is also interesting we’ll talk through that once we spit some stuff out Andy but uh
What’s your first stat if you’re gonna give me one stat here that you want to model this week uh what’s your first one so I did I did start to put something together like I said obviously I I think I erased it after we did that
Tech update so I have to remake my model again which is which is not going to be that difficult but this is one where hey greens and regulation is used something I’m looking at can’t do it this week not even a little bit everybody it’s one of
Those where um it’s not like I need to go negative on this and say that’s bad if you’re good at greens and regulation but something that is usually off the top of the model that I add almost every week is some sort of either greens regulation uh going for greens hits
Green going for greens birdies are better nothing in that range um on The Fairway approach accuracy view there Ryan yep I I am going to add a couple buckets there I’m I’m just going to rebuild my model right now in the background while you’re doing but you
Know a couple of those the the Fairway probably Fairway 70 50 to 75 and 75 to 100 because there are going to be so many shots like you said where people are going to be taking shots from 50 to 100 yards in and yeah everybody on tour
Is pretty good at their short wedges but there are guys who are better and like you said some of this is you know like like we’re doing here it’s proximity because some of that is going to matter with the multifaceted multi-tiered undulated greens it’s not just hitting a
Green like hitting a green from 100 yards out it sometimes could be a three putt still getting a really close proximity shot after shot hole after hole to let yourself have these 10 to 15 Footers and these Bermuda Greens on the right tier within you know Striking
Distance the hole that’s going to matter a lot to make you a score here yep I like it so you can see here we are defaulting to uh six-month time frame and all rounds but you can obviously drop this down you can go back to last two months last month last five years
And then here 50 I like to do 50 rounds 50 I go six my my standard maybe maybe this is something fun we can do throughout the year that you can talk me out of my talk me out of my comfort zones my standards are always six months
Last 50 rounds I don’t like to go a lot further um obviously when we run into a beginning of the year like this it’s a little different so I did go I didn’t want to go six months because there’s some guys that just haven’t played for
Like two or three so I went nine months I feel like that’s close to what six months is going to look like when I’m doing this in the middle of the year so last 50 rounds over the last nine months okay we’ll do that we’ll go 50 for nine
In season when these guys are playing every week like I like to take a look at and I might not weigh it but I want to take a look to see if there’s anyone popping uh looking at the the last say 12 16 20 rounds because that’s the last
Three four or five events uh you just want to see if there’s anything happening in the short term that you might miss I do think in terms of all you know golf metrics in general probably having the longest view in the room is probably the best way to go
Which is I think what Andy’s talking about here so we’ll add this here you can see all you need to do is click on this little plus button we’re going to talk about Fairways 50 to 75 you can make a little note to yourself I’m g go
Fairways 5075 and this is just for yourself um last nine months last 50 rounds uh and again this is nothing that you need to do um you have to do this is just personal so uh let’s see here we’ll add that and that will be in there when
I go and get it I’ll do the same for 75 to 100 as well so we’ll go uh 75 to 100 pretty straightforward again I’m gonna skip that for sake of the show now but uh again that’s just for your notes and I’ll show you where you can find that in
Uh later on all right what are you thinking so I I do think because you got a score scoring Matrix yeah some scoring metrics here I let’s just also capture you know the slower me greens here and show people how they can do that too so you can go
To the filter by condition here um this pulls up all sorts of stuff you can see all the different things that you can cut this up into par length event type rounds length uh green size all that stuff uh what I want here is I want some
I got we got slow Bermuda greens here I want to cap slow ber make this even bigger oh there you go nice you don’t need to see us no we’re going to apply that uh let’s see I also think especially for putting you want to have
Uh some pretty long uh you know views in terms of you know getting a sample size that matters as you can see there’s nothing that even has happened in the last nine months that captures this uh so let’s go four years and 50 rounds we’re not going to get 50 rounds for
Most guys uh we will go into the putting section you can break into this this is again going to give you Strokes game putting three put avoidance um three putt avoidance from 25 plus uh feet which I think matters and approach basically lag putting like how’s your
Lag putting bud and again these are things that are uh harder for you to find anywhere else there’s also some putting range buckets if you want to get into here let’s just capture uh just Strokes game putting using this metric We’ll add it we’ll go last 50 last four years uh slow
Bermuda we’re g to add that capture that I do think we need some some scoring as well here so let’s uh let’s get off of this we’ll clear this filter and we’ll get into some scoring stuff too because I think we can change how we weigh it but I think you want to
Have some uh some scoring metrics here too you can see you can also get into specific buckets on par three par four par five scoring we have some upgrades coming and some pushes there as well but how should we capture scoring here Andy
What do you think I do I do want to take a quick time out as well too yeah when we get to the end of this and we create this model it’ll save and if you label it hey this is my Sentry model let’s say you do pretty well it’s worth
Remembering because um you can just you can save this model and just rerun it with next year’s field it’s already made there for you it’ll just update in fact you know the weird thing is you can just say I want to run the Sentry model at you know here somewhere that wouldn’t
Like Detroit where it’s the wrong model for sure like it’ll take the Detroit field and tell you well if you apply all these metrics that you thought were important in Hawaii to Detroit here’s who’s good which would be a terrible idea I’m just saying if you make
Something like this that’s specific to a let’s say you make a bombers Paradise kind of kind of model if you make yourself a you know a Bermuda a pitch and Putt uh you know a Target golf one you can make one a little more Broad and
Use it you know month after month week after week just going back and opening it up so something to think about as far as using I’m I’m going to take a little time this year and kind of think about how some of these did go back and do
Some you know maybe some retrospective each week and say like is this something I want to save for next year yeah we gonna clean this up a little bit because I still have my SE Island model available for you um you can see here if you click on this little link here view
Expert rankings you can go here and actually click any um models that we’ve put out there as well so you want to have access Andy was touching on that too you want to see Andy’s model for the week you want to see what I built you
Want to see what Ron built uh you can go ahead and get access to that here as well I think pretty pretty useful and you can you know again we’re available in Discord at any time just tag us for subscribers you can ask us our thoughts
Why we did something why we waited the way we did uh I think those are all I think important and constructive conversations to have as well all right buddy how do we want to capture scoring do you want to do it just straight up birdies are better do you want to get
Into anything you know Par Four part five specific what should we do here probably just some birdies or better percentage okay we do last 50 rounds yeah let’s go last 50 like kind of what I’m saying last 50 rounds last nine months I’m gonna add this to mine as
Well and on the on the other end too it should say birdies are better percentage so you just you know when you’re making your notes really you just have to note if you’re making any condition filter conditions like time or you know if this is only un permuted or something like
That yep for sure you can see uh the views where you can cut stuff op into um which I think is really cool and then also the filter by condition so these are things specifically that you can uh add and if you want to see it obviously
It’s defaulting to rank we have 59 guys in the field you want to see what the actual number is here too as well you can click the average and get the actual number um that is relevant for them as well you can also highlight guys here on
The side make them your favorites uh and then you can just show your favorites only here as well which is I think some cool features how much how much more do you want to add because I don’t like to two nuts with adding to many different conditions kind of a point of modeling
Guys if you add too much stuff you’re double counting you’re you know you’re probably overdoing it you’re not going to get great results eventually if you add too many things it’s just gonna it’s pretty much going to line up with the betting Market because it’s like oh I
Put in the 15 most important stats well all the best golfers are going to just kind of float towards the top it’s not going to give you uh more of a look and this is not something I use just say like I’m always betting the number one
Guy in my model it’s more of a these are the guys that I think have the best course fit I’m G to look at their prices I’m going to judge where some of these numbers at if somebody’s way off and surprises me I’m going to go look at
Where they played over the last you know time frame and see if there was some outlier kind of you know uh results or maybe they played in a weird field a weakened field that really bumps something up because all Strokes gain metrics are relative to the field so if
You put John ROM down in the Barracuda or you know the Barracuda is a bad example it’s stableford but uh in the Barra you know in Mexico like his his numbers are going to be quite high in something like that it can throw things off a little yeah no that’s a great
Point um I think we’ll probably have that too where um you know I’m trying to pull back there are things that I want to capture and I think you’re GNA add some stuff and not give it weight if you want to just see what it spits out and
Where people are uh in certain metrics but I do think you know weighing it specifically uh becomes interesting where you start to double count so I think I’m probably more apt to do that and I think you’ll probably have to help me pull back on some of that this season
You’ll see I’m going to click this create uh mixed condition model button and it’s gonna have some stuff that I’ve already uh put in my model so we’ll see if there’s anything else that we want to add there’ll be some redundancy as well but let’s click s and then we can talk
About how we want to uh weigh it and go from here so you got a lot going on oh yeah so this is some stuff um I put in uh birdie or better at capala as well too so capturing some of that and again that’s like noisy because you have some
Guys that have never even played here um did some of the same stuff but I also captured some of the rough data that we touched on too because we did these same buckets here uh same buckets here right the last I think my sample is smaller in
Terms of I think last 24 rounds um yeah so I just did last six rounds that’s nice too so if yeah if you forget what you did you can hover over that and it’ll tell you all the filters you put in there the labels are nice but yeah if
If you do forget like go hover over that Bermuda one the the putting there yeah like it’ll say it’s it’s going to be called Green surface Bermuda all courses record last 50 so it will tell you what you did if you go back and forget so all
Right put some numbers in let’s weigh it let’s delete a few weigh things and see what we come up with here um because so it’s a little bit you know interesting I get your thoughts too like short game um does matter a little bit because of like
Again some of these these are like 400 yard 420 yard uh par fours the guys are going to be driving like almost 400 yards so like it does capture a little bit of like we’re gonna miss some of this like 50 to 75 bucket because they’re so close so I do think
Having that a little bit matters but again we can just for the sake of uh keeping it clean uh we don’t have to do that so I’m going to keep approach last six months here yeah I will push back on that too because some of that is like um
It’s just going to capture around the green and that’s just not going to come into play it because I don’t know how they’re going to classify second shots on a par four if they’re 30 yards out like is that a is that a short game shot
Or is that an approach so a little a little confusing on how the stats will treat some of that when you get weird events like this yeah more weird courses more more so um do you want to capture any of the rough stuff or should okay we can make it smaller right
Right we’ll just do we’ll give it five each again some of this is going to be redundant right if you we’re going to capture approach last six months in the entire field um and you know the 75 to 100 Bucket from the Fairway like these are all approach but we know like hey
This is the one spot where we want to give it a little bit of weight knowing that we’re going to have a higher distribution of approach shots from that bucket but we also have a decent amount of like 200 plus here as well on some of
Like the par fivs where uh you we have a little bit of a higher than normal approach from there as well so I do think having it counts so uh what do you want to away what do you want to away approach last six months 30% okay lot
All right so we got 40 here already uh Fairway from 50 to 75 last nine months last 50 rounds anything in and 10 each there okay take us to 60 so again this is all approach in different buckets yeah but essentially we’re you know we’re at 60% which is fine
60% scoring 40% putting let’s go uh you want to go like 1525 there let’s do it all right perfect you can see the next thing I GNA ask for for from Tech I want a little thing at the bottom that adds them up for me th% uh we’ll do this this
Show uh we will do Sentry all right yeah all right make sure you save it as an expert all right now if you have a subscription you can go find this exact model under the expert models and you can see here this is what Andy’s talking
About right See’s a bunch of stuff I built last year that I don’t have to rerun if it went well uh I could just go back in and I could see what I did I could see how my results went then I can go back in and uh spit out the same
Model that I did if it went poorly I can go back and find out what I want to do so we’re going to save and generate this model and let’s see what we get pretty quick too especially since I’m streaming so it’s not bad all right
Top of them allall har guess who lik guess who likes his wedges it’s funny there’s quotes from Harris English too about this course saying I’m normally not a driver guy but I’m hitting driver like every hole here just because I can I think he enjoys it out here obviously he’s had some injury
Concerns but you know I’m a Harris English guy so I don’t hate it and then I don’t either Scotty Scotty being near the top is pretty normal but I ran everything I ran had had the postman up there too okay uh yeah the first I think
The model that I ran had hogi at the top as well which again where we’re gonna get into like heavily weighted approach uh stuff that’s gonna you know lean itself to uh to Tom hogi now look Harris English has won here before uh recently uh so like this is this makes sense to
We’re not even giving like we didn’t pull any course history stuff here look like yeah he hit some like should we necessarily like blind B our to guy no but like Harris English was a guy that is interesting to me anyway at least in terms of finishing positions you know
Played decently down the stretch a little bit last year 10th at the B&W uh you know T8 at the US Open started to turn the corner a little bit and we started to get a little bit more healthy uh you know last time we saw him was at
The RSM where he went t28s uh so again he’s been playing some okay golf um I don’t hate it now he is way down the betting board from an outright standpoint I think there are hundreds out there on Harris English uh but again like maybe someone you want to look at
From match up standpoint or someone you want to look at 20 yeah finishing position I think he’s also G to get plus money on some stuff down the board so Scotty feels like he makes sense right so Scotty is the top of the board in terms of the outright Market Andy no
Matter where you’re at you’re basically 550 six to one on Scotty uh that’s tough uh Vic is also around like nine or 10 they’re the top of the board um some other guys will’ll see where they’re at as well um you know any any interest in
Going at the top of the board I haven’t seen any of your card I don’t know where you’re at but you know again like Scotty is getting a bump in terms of when you look here putting this is not where we expect to see Scotty doing well look we
Got the putting metrics slow Bermuda uh in this field we’re getting Scotty seventh which I think is really really interesting that’s one of those two where it’s like I want to go back and do some looking like what what what is driving that what how is uh you know was
It just a pretty small sample and even if that is the case I’m still willing to not say like oh I should drop Scotty to 50th in the bottel because he only put it you know a few times on Bermuda greens but oh I uh obviously I like it I
Don’t think I’m going to be betting a 550 this week I’m looking kind of more in the middle of the field but like you mentioned with Harris English there’s some guys obviously I mentioned post band too JT is probably something I’d look at for a top 10 I think there’s a
Few guys that have some skill sets with some oh they could be a little more High volatility I think that’s what we’re looking for here um yeah your Steady Eddy cut makers that’s not something you need at a at a tournament filled with top end players that is essentially a
Birdie Fest and everyone knows it you need some guys who can go off who can you know catch catch fire as far as if their wedges and their putter suddenly start working you can see some you know you can see a 62 63 out here yeah you need that you have to have
Low 60s I mean we saw last year what happened where like U you know we think about like Colin collapsing last year and uh because you know solid lead six shot lead heading into the final round um he did not make a bogey in that round
Right he was minus 700 going into the final round did not make a bogey or worse and lost the tournament that’s the kind of scores we get here I had him that was the start of a I knew it was like this isn’t this this year is gonna
Be a real treat if uh if I can’t even get Colin home at minus 700 but uh no that that’s the fun think too about this one because no no lead’s safe especially heading into just like the weekend obviously but yeah some guys I looked at like I said Poston um probably Danny
McCarthy a decent maybe look at Jason day but again some of those guys it’s probably gonna be like top 10 bets yeah no I agree it’s tough to and we’re gonna have this kind of predicament all year in terms of how do we approach the top of the board where
These guys have massive win Equity uh especially when you get into a spot where you’re eliminating you know even though like the bottom 100 guys or whatever that aren’t in the field like you’re still eliminating 100 other professional golfers uh when you have these small Fields no cut events
Definitely Chang the dynamic so you know I’m probably gonna pivot in terms of how I do some allocations in terms of unit sizing and stuff like that because I I think a guy has actual real win equity and I’m like I don’t really want to go
To the top of the board when a guy is six or seven to one but there going to be times where I think it makes sense to do so this year so the one that’s really interesting at the top of the board or near the top of the board uh so far is
Our guy Ludi oberg we are already there it already happened Andy um and he got a win right the last time out with the RSM but there is like in terms of hey I want to be early on this guy we did last year we’re trying to bet him at like 30 and
25 we are in a loaded field uh and ludig is 14 um everywhere basically Caesars is at plus 950 uh which is insane now Chris there’s uh you know 18 1850 out out of Chris so you can get you can get some reasonable numbers but I mean Scotty
Sheffler kley shley havin marawa hom spe Hatton Burns Fitzy SJ cam young Fleetwood Ricky Tom Kim like this is this is uh this isn’t the RSM boys like it is crazy what his numbers are going to do it’ll be interesting to see I hope he scuffles a little
Um just so I get some better numbers I think he’s going to play well come like uh spring I’d love to be betting on him at like Bay Hill and a few places like that so I kind of hope he plays like for a few
Weeks yeah I I agree this does not seem a spot where like again like the whole game is there that’s why we’re here uh but a spot where like we can really reward his accuracy off the tea um I don’t think we necessarily get that here
Um but again like he has the whole bag and why he is uh already won that’s why he held up um in Spades at the Ryder Cup and why you know he’s already at this price which I think is you know very interesting in terms of you having you
What a handful of seven guys or so short of 20 uh and this kid is is already there so H we wasted wasted no time um I want look at the back end of this let’s look at this real quick and just look at the upside down uh last in the model
Here is Jason day which I think is uh which is interesting Windam Clark Justin Rose Kurt kyama who I’ve heard talked about you mentioned Denny um Tommy here he’s some other guys that are at the bottom Jordan which I think makes a lot of sense I’ve heard
Like the Jordan and seah coral area where like they’re really hot and cold uh they could spray it off the tea and it doesn’t really matter here too too much you can uh you can still get rewarded here anyone that’s uh surprising to you to see here at the very bottom of the
Model yeah I mean I guess Jason but some of that approach that makes sense some of the short approaches short irons I guess that checks out he doesn’t have a lot of we don’t have a lot of uh putting stats for some of these guys um Denny
Being Denny being kind of low we might have to go might have to go for a bigger sample size in some of the putting um interesting we didn’t get any rough here for Denny either rough from uh 50 to 75 which is yeah I think we’ll have to go
For it is kind of a weird range you know we don’t get a massive a massive uh volume from there yeah and if some of these guys like haven’t played this course obviously maybe that’s a secondary Factor we’re looking at with some of these players where hey should
We avoid this guy just because he hasn’t played here a lot or at all in some cases I don’t think Vincent Norman was in the field over the previous Tournament of Champions uh correct kind of uh plays go scroll down just a little I mean a makes sense he should be
Down there hadwin’s F I’m fine with hadwin being a bit of a fade this week and SE Gala yeah middle of the pack that’s fun yeah I don’t I mean I want to get behind it I know like he’s a buzzy like this is a guy that’s gonna take a leap
This year there’s a ton of talent there everything is so like just it feels so unpredictable to me in terms of like when he has got it I feel like he’s a live guy right you bet him live he looks like he’s on whether it’s you know
Something that round or you know in tournament where he’s piecing some stuff together it just he seems like a guy that’s uh got to be a little bit more consistent for me to to want to trust him so he’s a he’s he’s a tricky one for me
So yeah this is again like you can I haven’t I haven’t played same bets yet on this one it was gonna be this afternoon well I got behind on golf because we missed Monday and then obviously had some had some tech issues sort out yesterday but yeah I haven’t
Made any bets and a good question here uh in the chat from Seb said interested to hear about your investment strategy with no recent form EG I’m avoiding top 10 Etc because I don’t know if they’re in form so only one to bet upside it is
A little bit of a tricky part of the year with that because of you know who’s in form who might be in form we don’t really know is this one work there we go look at us um yeah a lot of these guys you haven’t seen him play golf for quite
A while at this point we don’t know maybe there’s something to be said for hey here’s a guy I think I like I think his course stats match up well I like his price go go look at last year maybe he didn’t play here but go look how he
Played at Sony AMX couple of the early tournaments even up to was management see you know is there a consistent pattern of boy this guy sucks in January or he comes back and plays well despite having played you know virtually no swing season events or something like
That I don’t know if that’s you know every Everybody might be doing it different each December where some guys say I need to get in extra rounds down in Arizona this December because I need to figure some stuff out but you know maybe maybe something to go off there I
Know it’s so hard to predict form here I think I’m going to be doing a lot more uh round by round head-to-head kind of betting here but I think my top 10 strategy top you know top 20s just aren’t gonna be priced that well with a
Smaller field is going to be based on just some longer shots that I like that I feel like you know I might put a small outright on them but a top 10 and like an 80 to1 is kind of where I’m at with with some of these bigger number guys
That makes sense I do think so there’s a couple things here right where we like we run into this uh in the swing season and you run into it here obviously in like January in particular maybe even February in terms of what matters I I do think that this
Being uh a signature event now this being you know status elevated in terms of prize pool in terms of FedEx Cup points I think it matters so I do think you’re this is not like uh you know no it’s it’s not a fuckof tournament yeah it’s not training camp
In the 80s these guys are like have’ been just like you know smoking sigs and like just you know hitting balls with the kids the range like I think these guys are coming in ready I think a lot of these guys don’t fall out of form now again competitive golf form versus like
You know playing uh you know games with your buddies and in cash games at the club I think are a little bit different but I do think because of the status of the event I think and knowing that like course history has shown up and matter
Here a little bit looking at guys that have played here and have played here well over the years I think I’m okay with maybe leaning into that a little bit more than say we would at a typical event because that’s kind of all we have
To go off of so I would like to have seen a guy play here even one time uh and have had some success that’s why like Harris English popping at the top of the board makees some sense as you mentioned like you know might not be an
Outright play uh let’s see where we’re at for Harris English from an outright play um I think we’re like around a 100 or so and again like it’s a little Rich they’re 90s one 20 on Chris right uh that’s that’s rich um but like Harris English the
T20 uh two to one two to ones are out there plus 180 or so so yeah I like that and yeah like you mentioned this isn’t some this isn’t Tigers tournament from a month ago in you know what was it the Bahamas why can’t I think of that yeah
Hero at the Bahamas yeah yeah it’s a $20 million purse with 3.6 million dollar to the winner that’s the same as you know that’s the same as the RBC the Wells Fargo The Travelers St Jude BMW this is a bigger pot than the RBC Canadian um you know
Valero any of any of those secondary Charles Schwab Farmers the Genesis I mean this is this is a bigger pot than you know Phoenix Open is in signature this year so this is a $20 million pot guys aren’t going to be hey I’m going to bring the kids we’re going to get some
Beach time I’m going to goof for it’s a legit event that matters a lot towards the end of the year standings because and if you’re Money Motivated you’re doubly Money Motivated for anything that gets you a lot of points to head towards you know getting into the deep part of
The playoffs in the summer I typically like to bet t40s because these guys that typically like get down here that I like are longer shots that I just really like they profile well maybe not like a place I want to allocate outright funds to obviously we’re not getting a t40 market
Uh in a 59 man Fields but bet rivers and DraftKings are offering T30 markets uh which again is I think pretty interesting again we’ll reference Harris English I have a few more Harris English minus 120 uh to T30 here which again like you know it’s you love laying juice
Uh in in golf finishing position bets but again like this is kind of where we’re at this week so those are available out there too again not every book uh and you could price those out there as well you have not made any outright bets I’ve made one considering
A couple others but I’ve made one uh and I went to the well on Matthew Fitzpatrick um thought the number was bad uh he last year this is his first time coming last year he was part of the group with sheffler and spawn that were in second behind morawa Rah was one
Stroke behind those guys um and again like played really good golf just you know not as good as as Colin did uh 66 69 66 in his first three rounds here played well had T10 at Augusta here last or at Augusta last year as well so like
That corly kind of ties together he closed at 2 to1 last year uh in worse form and have n played here it’s coming in in better form and it’s 30 to1 so I like that quite a bit there’s still a 30 out there there’s some 22s out there so
It’s moved a little bit but again you can shop and find the 30 again finished the year on a high note he finished T9 or better and five of his final seven starts including the BMW including the Tour Championship he won comfortably on DP World Tour in October he won the
Alfred Dunhill links um again not an elite par 4 score historically but these are like different as we talked about Par Four scor and like he’s really good and like bomb and wedge stuff um really good short game I think’s you know some stuff like shorter wedges is is good and
A really strong I think we had him up here in the slow Bermuda putting uh he’s fourth so we know he can score here on slow Bermuda greens so my only outright bat at 30 got that at seizures but I think there’s still some some 30s on
Fitzpatrick so other guys that I was circling with like morawa I like hom um you know and I like Scotty but I do I want to play those prices I don’t think I want to so only one right now in the bag is Fitz yeah I’m kind of the same
Thing like I really like can’t Le’s fit I don’t like him as a person I’m certainly not super interested at like 10 to one same thing with Victor obviously I love Victor as a person he’s an awesome dude a lot of fun but another one where it’s like hey it’s 12 to one
Xander oh you’re like 11 12 to one uh Eric Cole I don’t know everyone’s the everyone’s kind of I don’t know are we out are we just out now is it is it time trying to find his price here right now on this 70 see it’s
It’s all these guys in the 70s that I’m love I’m probably just I’m gonna look at Cole I’m gonna look at Poston I’m going to look at Russ Henley at around 50 and maybe Keegan and find some good top 10 top 20 prices I’m not sure I’ll have a
Full on outright like I’ve seen a lot of people play on morawa I don’t know if I can after what he did to me last year um like oar is way too low home at 18 home at 18 is interesting and I did just finish up my model and I guess he’s not
Super high I have him 17th he gets drugged down a little by his Bermuda or his birdies are better rate over the last 50 rounds but everything else obviously checks out he’s just I put in so I did a uh just Strokes game total where it’s just hey
Over the last 12 months all courses like what’s what’s your total just kind of a uh a placeholder for form in general and obviously he’s super high in that spot that’s gonna bring him up same thing with Eric Cole Eric Cole’s not too far behind him in the field and something
Like that so yeah H approach could be better but it looks like he has a decent chipping game he’s putting his good like I might I might look at that so tentatively what what’s the best price you’re seeing on Maxi you’re 18 at Chris is by far the best
Out there 14’s everywhere else there’s some twv even so 18 is great yeah just have somebody to cheer for but obviously Poston like I said Poston cool Henley couple other guys I’ll look at I’ll put them in the Discord for sure once I price it all out and figure out
Who I’m betting and then this afternoon we’ll be looking at uh head-to-head prices yeah love it the uh the other guy not quite at the top of the board kind of in that next fold uh similar to where Fitz was that I that I might add the
Only other outright that I I’m really considering because I just don’t want to pay the freight and I’m gonna be I’m probably gonna have GNA be a lot of times I just come on here and I probably bet like you know what I got a two-man
Card I bet Vic and hom I’m just folding up shop and that’s who I’m betting this week like that’s gonna happen the handful of times this year I don’t want to start that way and I don’t think like their skill sets are are like highlighted here per se um though I you
Know again like you’re never going to find me talking ill will about either of their games sunj M um 35 is really interesting has played well here before has never finished worse than t13 and has gotten better every year and he’s played again he plays so frequently he’s
Played really good golf down the stretch again like form is really fickle because we haven’t seen these guys as much but Sanjay has been playing really well I like this for him we know we can get birdies but like look he played the Korean Genesis T2 there BMW he was
Seventh FedEx Cup uh St Jude he was sixth Zoo he was 12 just been playing really good golf um and I think he really likes it here so Sanjay is interesting to me it’s not a guy that I back in an outright Market a lot like so
I might look at finishing positions but 35 feels like a pretty good number and I think that’s the best out there uh so that’s the other one that I haven’t added uh yeah and he’s 28 at Chris so that’s like upside down compared L where we’re talking about all these other guys
Being you know better at Chris which is a really sharp uh you know bookm price making book whereas there’s about yeah yeah but I mean he’s so short still so that’s tougher but yeah when you get into these guys that are down in the 30s
A little bit when you get it he’s sub30 on Chris and 35 out there at domestics I think uh djay is interesting too so yeah I did one of my favorite little like uh you know anyone who was you know betting professionally will tell you I’m a
Donkey I tell you I’m a donkey when I do it um I love my finishing position parlays you throw a Scotty and sunjay T20 together which I know is poorly correlated and the math doesn’t math and it’s bad they’re fun I want to get access to Scotty doing well I parlay his
T20 with Sanjay T20 uh plus 135 on FanDuel which is an interesting bet to me so uh that’s one deep down the board another finishing position guy that I want to mention not an outright play for me but um Eric Van royan has been playing some really good golf yeah I saw
His name brought up and I dug in Minnesota goer yeah yeah it’s one of your guys like the spring and the summer were terrible just Mis cut all the time uh but he he won the second worldwide technology championship of the season right that was the uh El cardinel one um
Diamante yeah like he he his gain Strokes on approach in five straight that does not include the win because they didn’t have any shotlink data captured there uh T25 here I will assume he gained Strokes on the field that day I think he probably gained Strokes on
His win and again like he played here last year T20 or no uh 2022 T25 so at least he’s like he’s been here before and like I said B Rivers is gonna take a T30 bet there at plus money uh I think DraftKings as well plus 140 for him to
Come in the top half of the field um I like it and he’s he’s playing pretty good golf so that’d be a deeper down theboard you know bomb that I’m not interested in getting into an outright uh bet on but I think he’s going to play some good
Golf so that’s all I got yeah I’m about there I’ll I’ll post some stuff I’ll have a newsletter out here in a few hours I’ll put some thoughts and that I have after a little more research in there do do my own research um but yeah
It’s probably going to be a lighter card on the outrights and I’ll have to take a look at what we have I know when you have a smaller field the head-to heads tend to be less but it’s usually not by a lot because it’s still you know
They’re not making ad tohe Head Market for the the Monday qualifiers and and the guys in on sponsors exemptions at the bottom of the field it’s still just mostly the the top to middle of the field anyway so I feel like we might have a good offering I just haven’t run
My numbers on any of it yet I will get to that I’m happy that until we get to the farmers we will have a normal week of prep for most I gotta remember that week to like start on Sunday start on Sunday ahead of that everybody I think
The schedule’s the same this week this year can we should we do that as our last like our last favor to the to the crowd anyone who’s listening watching there’s some uh some there are some wrinkles that are a little different well I I think that’s the one
That they it starts Wednesday yeah it starts the Farmers Insurance open January 24th through the 27th it does start on Wednesday that’s in three weeks from this tournament so next week we’re Sony the week after AMX and kinta and then the Farmers Open remember you have
One fewer days because they do not want golf going up against the NFC and AFC Title Games makes sense if you guys stuck around or even if you didn’t and you’re watching this later hit a thumbs up I would love that if you listen as a
Podcast I’d love you to rate and review that helps us out if you uh want to help us out at all if you want to get access to the custom database that we built our model on obviously go over to at bets Spurs golf.com you can get that deal with the
Vivid picks you get five bucks if uh if that’s not something you want to do we also will offer discounts all year honestly if you just want to try it out for a little bit you can DM either one of us we can probably get you a promo
Code to try it out for a week or two hit us up if you have any questions hit us up if you want to join the Discord there are some free channels in there hit us up otherwise we’ll check you next week for more hawaian action we’ll see you then guys
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back in the saddle like sexy Steve Tyler 🤠