Bet These LONGSHOTS at Sony Open | Golf Picks & PGA Tour Predictions | Links & Locks

Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Robert Arguello, Nick Bretwisch and Spencer Aguiar discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Sony Open on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction

Subscribe to Links and Locks podcast here: www.actionnetwork.com/podcasts/links-locks

00:00 – The Sony Open Best Bets
08:34 – Course Preview
14:10 – Outright Bets
34:23 – Best Remaining Bets
38:01 – Rapid fire

#pgatour #golfbetting #golf

Get our free mobile app: https://myaction.app/youtube
https://www.actionnetwork.com/

@actionnetworkhq

http://instagram.com/actionnetworkhq
Tweets by ActionNetworkHQ

Individuals must be 21+ to participate in sports betting and iGaming in the U.S. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER in the U.S. or visit: https://www.actionnetwork.com/general/responsible-gambling.

In Massachusetts, please call 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support. LiveChat with a GameSense Advisor at GameSenseMA.com or call 1-800-GAM-1234.

#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello

Welcome to links and locks the action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 this week we’re going to be previewing our bets for the Sony Open in Hawaii there in Honolulu at Wai Country Club last week we were at the Sentry over on Maui where Chris Kirk picked up

His sixth career PGA Tour win did it by one stroke over sahala unfortunately my outright did not hit Spencer and Nick also had outrights who were in The Mix Spencer had Scotty sheffler Nick had Jordan spe but at the end of the day Chris Kirk came through and got his six

PGA Tour win congratulations to him and to all Chris Kirk backers but we’re back with more night golf this week at Wai and it’s a very different Golf Course a very different field instead of 59 players is a full field of 144 players this week and we could not be more

Excited to jump into it so with that I’m Roberto and welcome in Spencer agar and Nick brwi you can find Spencer on Twitter at Toff Sports you can find Nick on Twitter sticks piix that sticks with an X you can find me on Twitter Roberto 8213 fellas welcome in and give me your

Best bet for the Sony Open in Hawaii this week I’ll start with you Nick all right I’m going to go with a guy that I know we were both on last week especially in the DFS side of things and he’s struck the ball incredibly well has fantastic horse

History here I have value at the top of the board on JT Poston 33 to one right now and the market is the best price JT Poston final answer all right JT Poston arguably the best putter in the world another strong week last week he was my best bet for

Top 20 plus 175 T TI paidon full and he did cash that with a T5 I believe last week so Nick hopefully he keeps it rolling for you this week before we get into that cap spend what is your best bet for the week this week I feel really weird not giving a

Head-to-head bet on this show that’s something that I always do you know especially when we continue to talk about how bad these placement markets have become think if you can find Austin ecro minus 110 over Davis Thompson that’s a price that’s unfortunately moved it’s different now in the high

Minus 120 range but I would consider that if your book still has that available but I am going to go with the only non outright wager that I did place this week so far Adam Fenson plus 260 for a top 20 so Adam Fenson a guy whom Spencer if

I remember correctly in 2022 November you hit on him to win the RSM classic is that right that is correct so going back to the well with spencon this week excited to hear why you went with him for top 20 I went with one of Spencer’s

Guys this week a guy whom we’ve taken lots of shots on Stephen joerger for 55th or better you can find him in the finishing positions over there on our sponsors website or app bet 365 before we get into joerger Nick tell me why you like JT posting this

Week yeah like you said I think one of the uh the more confident things in backing someone up the board is their ability to make putts when it matters most I know we are talking before air um you know my my numbers seem to have a good Edge on Corey Connor’s in the

Outright Market as well if you could still find 28 to one but for me JT poen and just the flat stick just makes me feel a lot more you know safe in terms of spending what is my at risk here for JT Poston so 0.22 units which is 22% of

My outright card on JT Poston I’d rather you know spend that money on a guy that I know can make putts when it matters most love the iron play and I think what matters most to me recently with JT Poston he is playing with bigname players you see him compete and

Absolutely try to run down some of the world’s best last Sunday to finish inside the top five so yeah JT Poston he is becoming a worldclass player instead of just being a world class putter I’m all in on JT posten and again it’s the highest value Edge that I have in my num

So I’m always going to trust the math I know it was a little bit disappointing Sunday with Jordan spe but again you know you take away that double to start the round and that bogey you know because the ball you get the uh the fried egg on 16 in the bunker there take

Away that I think Jordan Speed wins by two or three Strokes so uh I’m going to trust my numbers I’m going to JT posted can’t forget about when he had to put his ball in the divot for Harris English as well that too yeah that too

That was wild a funel really unlucky for y um but you know I love JT posting I saw him at 40 earlier this week didn’t punch punch a ticket then then he’s all the way down at 30 throughout the market now and I still have room on my card but

I haven’t punched a ticket yet but who knows we got plenty of time left in the Pod for an inpod play but first Spencer why are you going with Spencer for top 20 it was a number grab situation for me that plus 260 price was about 60 points

Higher than the rest of the market his 12 consecutive made Cuts generated a very high floor within my model and then he was one of the most significant upside climbers for me because of his seventh place grade for projected scoring at y I only bet this to win a

Unit but I thought that combination of course history that extended form that he had dating back to the end of 2023 and then that statistical profile that I just talked about that made the best value on the board for me and I tend to agree for the most part with what Nick

Said when it comes to the putting like Connors is very safe this week if we’re just talking specifically about him but I worried about his ability to make putts for the price that you have to pay to get up there I kind of like those JT Poston Brian harmans a lot of players

Like that that we’ll discuss later in the show I wouldn’t say that spencon is quite the putter of some of those names but but inside the top 40 of my model every single way that I ran it for the most part I do think that the irons if

They can get hot enough like you just need to either get and we’ll talk about this in a second INF Fuego with the irons and be neutral to better with the putter that’s how we saw sewu kimin or if you can light it up with the putter

You can kind of mass some of the other problems I still think you need the gain with your irons but uh just that Boomer bust potential that he does add with the flat stick to go along with the iron play really think it’s a nice spot for

Him to potentially make a run up the board all right hopefully spencon brings it home in the top 20 this week and who knows maybe you’ve got a little bit more on him for some other markets as well finally capping off our third best bet I’ve got Stephen Jagger 55th or better

And this one just kind of perplexed me because Stephen Jagger Spencer has talked about him frequently on this podcast and bet him outright which hasn’t cashed quite yet but Stephen joerger has been just consistent the model of consist consen on the PGA tour other than Scotty sheffler who is just

Doing ridiculous things but joerger in his last 10 starts 55th or better every single one of those 10 starts and in in four Sony Open appearances he’s also got three top 55 finishes as well and overall you look at his game there’s no weakness in any facet off the te on

Approach around the green or putting and for me the reason why I think he is priced this low at 55th you don’t want to just bet on a bet where you think the number is wrong and you don’t know why you want to know why it’s wrong um or

Else you’re falling into a trap that the books have set um oftentimes that’s the case for football basketball Road favorite laye a short number etc etc but anyways joerger strengths of his game are around the green and driving distance but those two strengths are mitigated this week 72% of greens are

Hit in regulation at Yi and driving distance not as important on what is more of a positional golf course but Jagger is also above average in driving accuracy he’s above average on approach and he’s above average putter so where he needs to be performing this week he’s

Also very well positioned to excel so even though his strengths are somewhat neutralized he’s strong throughout the bag and as a result he just really needs to make the cut in order to catch this 55th or better so as a result I’m going to play 1.2 units on jger 55th or better

At minus 120 on our sponsor bet 360 5 so before we get into our outright bets let’s jump into our course preview for wildly Country Club and why we are weighing different things this week which will lead to our bets so without further Ado Spencer I’ll let you get

Into how you are modeling my like country club yeah from a structural standpoint you get this flat very tedious setup that’s going to emphasize par for scoring I think a little bit of the putting that we keep going back to and then ball striking at its core that

Doesn’t mean that only quality Putters can win I talked about that with SEIU Kim a second ago but I do think there’s this pronounced need to either gain massively with some combination of your approach shots or Be steady across the board and add to that mix when you look

At off the te I agree with you Roberto when you talked about that this course that the distance gets mitigated a little bit I will say though I do think that there’s a lot of different ways to find success out here you’re going to have much narrower Fairways the flat

Nature of the grounds will remove some of that ulation and wide open field that capalo presented a week ago I don’t know though that you still cannot take that aggressive approach so I don’t want to discredit and I think that’s a reason for joerger specifically

If we’re looking at that name of why I wouldn’t want to remove him from any iteration of how I’m trying to bet him but um it’s a very straightforward venue out here it’s the second most predictive venue on tour that’s going to be behind only Augusta National in rollover

Success we see that come into play with the emphasized proximity District distribution from 125 to 200 yards that’s a range that creates 67% of the total shots and presents over a 12% increase in importance versus a typical test the hard to hit Fairways did have me flip that new school moniker of

Distance over accuracy I weigh at 63% to 37% so a little bit heavier on that accuracy range there just because of that tree line nature you don’t want to block yourself out but essentially what you’re looking at is you need to hit a green in regulation there’s those height

And numbers that you talked about Roberto I think if you do that you give yourself a chance to score if you don’t it’s going to likely be a very short week that does possess a cut this week that’s something for everybody out there if you know if you’re either don’t

Realize it or whatever the situation is know that there is a cut this week we’re g to kind of be mixed bag this season between that but you have 144 player field where there is a cut on Friday so something to keep in mind for some of these

Markets Nick anything you’d like to add on how you are approaching W no um I I think maybe if anything I do value the around the green game for those when you do miss the green um like you said though it is a very high green regulations percentage here so driving

Accuracy is very important especially with the tight Treeline Fairways but no other than that Spencer’s the best in the business at the course breakdown I build my numbers very similar to how he does his model means a lot to my week so let’s do it just want to ask you guys one

Question so obviously last week at capala par 73 there were five par fives so you’re going to factor in par five scoring at that course this week there are only two so does that mean that you don’t want to factor in part five scoring as much or because there are

Only two and you need to capitalize on those two does that make them even more important or how do you guys approach that I mean I’ll give like a more basic answer I feel like just looking at the recent history like the last three years

All two I guess all two those two par fives are very reachable for damn near 90% % the field so to me I I don’t think it matters a whole lot I think that if anything that’s where the putting being weighed a little bit heavier in my

Numbers matters and which really gets me on the post and as opposed to Cory Connor when I’m up there fighting at the top of the board but that that’s kind of my my lame man’s answer but I’ll let Spencer dive into the data a little bit more

Here yeah I I think when you look specifically at this venue and you look at the par fivs the eagle rates are just so massive there’s a 6.6% eagle rate on the 9th a 3.2 2% Eagle rate at the 18th you’re going to be looking between a 53 to about

69% birdie or better percentage on those two holes I think when you get there you have to score I did weigh a little bit more of the par for scoring like it’s closer in weight than General but a lot of the decrease for me actually came on

The par 3s when I ran my model um difficult holes to score on for the most part I’m trying to find players that are not going to necessarily implode a score in those those areas I do think though that if you want to actually capture the title

At this tournament you’re going to have to produce on the par five so uh there’s a lot of different ways to look at par five numbers I looked under the par five birdier better percentage rather than just par five average just because I do want to find those birdie makers and the

Guys that can make Eagles when they get the opportunity so I’m going to give a very similar answer to Nick where I think it’s important this week awesome great stuff guys um on a question that I don’t think a lot of people are asking this week but before

We get into the outright bet outright bets wanted to note that the top three golfers on the odds board this week only three of them are consensus under 20 to1 that’s ludig Oar TL Hatton who had a beautiful interview with Todd Lewis I believe it was last Friday after a 62

And then also Matt Fitzpatrick these are the three consensus top guys on the odds board and none of them have played this golf course before so as a result might be some some volatility for people doing oneandone for people who want to do DFS so a lot of different ways to attack

This board but guys how are you doing it with the outright Market starting with you Nick I looked at a or Oar for I I butcher his name every time I’m sorry guys I looked at Oar for quite some time I I don’t think I’m very interested at all in

Hatton in any situation one done or in the outright Market but oar is kind of just a wild card for me just because he’s so lights out with his Woods like he can he can Club down he could probably get to both part fives and two

The iron play just at the end of last year is fantastic the the middle irons for him I mean where everybody’s hitting eight nine iron from 150 to 200 he’s probably hitting a pitching wedge if not a gap wedge with how long he is I feel

Like this course like it it may not seem that way because we we’d probably want to get exposure to oay when it’s more of like a long drive long and accurate driving type like a US Open style but I don’t know I I think that this is kind

Of how we were talking about Cam Davis last year we liked them on Club down courses and that was kind of Taboo in terms of like the betting space and people talking about betting golf but I think oar is is tough to avoid for me he’s someone that I’m very interested in

I was very close to getting a ticket there especially like he’s not 10 to one I I think if you if he shows out at the Sony or I’m sorry at the uh at the sentury I think that his odds are probably set right right around the 10

To 12 Mark and just because he kind of laid an egg last week I feel like the bookmakers are like okay we’ll take some risks just because they probably don’t think a lot of people will bet him I was very close to betting Oar and I do think

This course sets up fantastically for him especially with that high of a green regulation percentage where if anything maybe his short game is lacking but I I think it’s a great course for him and I’m very interested I just don’t know if I have the room on my card because I’m

Pretty much all in on he posting and we’ll talk about maybe one or two other guys here in a minute yeah go ahead and uh give the rest of you guys on your outlet card all right I wanted your guys thoughts but I punched a ticket anyway it was an Inplay inod

Play um while I was on mute here but JJ spawns 75 to one I will give you my numbers for him I have met 55 to one so he’s a massive Edge the issue with him is kind of just what putter do we see like historically with JJ spawn he was a

Very good putter on the PGA tour a couple years ago when he was lacking in the iron play and now his irons really came to life over the last year and a half he’s been one of the best middle mid-range iron player on tour according

To my numbers so I like that I know that he’s been in the winning circle back in 202 or 2022 is when he won right he won uh Valero so it’s he’s not forign a winning I do like that I do like the T12 last year and then I did get to Justin

Rose after speaking with Spencer for two seconds pre-show it’s all I needed his not of approval at 45 to1 and I’m looking for a triple digit number because I do have room for that that otherwise I can force a little bit more than one unit at risk in the outright

Market and take Oar if you guys talk me into it all right I think you had some interesting ones there that we’ll come back to and I likeed you mentioning that Oar last week played poorly relative to our expectations for him and as a result

We might get a bit of a discount on him this week I think there are a few guys that are worth targeting in that mindset this week but before we get into that Spencer who’d you punch a ticket on in the outright Market this week before I

Give those answers I I do want to go back to the Oar comment that Nick said I I think this is a good Workshop opportunity to discuss some of this because if you look at the outright Market Corey Connors Russell Henley books are different I don’t want

To give such a blanket statement here but there are a lot of books where those two players have become the favorite at some of those shops and and I agree with everything that Nick just said where there’s now this perception where he doesn’t perform at the century you get

One of these tournaments where I think the perception is that he loses his distance and we’ve talked about it yes accuracy is going to matter here but I don’t think that losing I think a player can bomb and gouge a little bit out here if you miss in the right spots there’s a

Lot of different ways to try to find success here when you look at him in my model he was massively number one for weighted total driving even when looking for accuracy there he was number one for me massively when trying to find projected uh Strokes gain total and

Projected weight weighted scoring for me so uh I also heavily considered going down that route I didn’t eventually end up pushing that ticket or punching that ticket either but I I think there’s a lot of what Nick said that makes sense that the market seems to be running to

Connors and Henley in the spot and I would rather take Oar at a very similar even in some spots like the same price there going to be out on Connors for all the reasons that we’ve talked about I just don’t know if he can make enough

Putts to actually win like him in safety markets he makes sense in any of those head-to-head Wagers I’m not looking to take them on just don’t love the price necessarily I would have preferred 40 to1 plus I think Henley is the more intriguing one um I have talked about

His profile over and over again I know that’s Nick’s guy even if you just date this back to the last two seasons and there’s a lot of that statistical data that’s going to make sense I just can’t get myself to bet Russell Henley win a

Golf tournament at 20 to 25 to1 I would have liked over 30 to1 to get into that area so I end up getting out on him and that’s kind of where this card of mine got constructed because I had the favorite Oar I had him as a price that

Was conducive to push punch a ticket on him but the second favorite for me on my odds board ended up being Brian Harmon when he was at 25 to1 that number has dropped quite a little bit I’m going to give you guys a little update here uh

Roberto you’re in first in the Action Network one andone contest Nick you in second Brian Harmon will win the contest this week and then I will be in first so that’s going to be a nice little change when I can jump back to the top there

But a third place grade for me for weighted scoring that generated the upside additional top five Mark for weighted Strokes gain total that provided that significant return that’s going to equal or surpass pretty much anybody in that range that I just talked about I had 17 to one proper I think

Anything that you can get above that is still a punch of ticket I took Justin Rose at 55 to1 that is more now in the 45 to1 range I still think that’s fine he ranked inside the top 10 of my model this week for proximity between 125 to 200 yards weighted scoring weighted

Strokes gain total and then the historical performances on these short par 70 venues the early movement for this price that we’ve seen if you want to call it 10 points here I think some people might have even been able to get 60 to one if you jumped on that early

Enough but it’s going to be that 61 that he shot on Sunday at the century unfortunately I wish that wasn’t what ended up happening because it moved the number so quickly in a lot of these spots but uh still think there’s value no matter what we’re talking about I

Think this is one of those trendy plays that actually Mak sense it’s kind of very similar to what we saw at PEB Pebble Beach when he captured the title last season really like the core setup for him I took Lucas Glover 75 to one Glover graded first in my model for

Weight of proximity and then top 10 for projected par for scoring it’s always going to come down to that putting Acumen for how far he can work himself up the leaderboard but the high-end nature of it last year captured back-to-back titles if he can produce anything like that I do think that

There’s a potential that he provides one of those SEI wo Kim answers to where he gains 10 Strokes approach and all of a sudden you know he’s neutral to a stroke a day with the Putter and he ends up winning the tournament I thought that

Was a good price and then I did go to Adam senson at 70 to1 historical Elite scorer on similar track inside my model seventh in my model for expected scoring I thought that the true win Equity at this going rate in the outright Market was better than the price there’s maybe

A little bit of that Boomer bu bust potential with it but I don’t think it’s quite as much as a guy like Lucas Glover like I don’t have any other tickets to talk about this week and if I like Glover and the price is the exact same

As fenon inside the top 20 Market you would think I’d be on both I thought Glover was a little bit more volatile so if I was going to bet Glover I’d probably more be more inclined to do it as a top five or a top 10 didn’t get

There um I do think it’s an interesting price but kind of as we talk about if you aren’t getting ties paid out in full those are really challenging markets for me to want to jump into ever 100% agreed and I thought you guys made some great points on Oar Spencer

You mentioned senson playing well on similar courses specifically the RSM classic and not only did he in the RSM classic so did L VG Oar in his most recent start before last week at the sentury so tons of reasons why you should like him and you guys are really

Talking me into obar I haven’t bet on him yet but I am strongly considering it now and I wasn’t really before I did I did it I also have some bad news I did it um before we hopped on the air here I was talking with Nick about there were

Two guys I was considering for one and done this week and that was JT Poston and Brian Haron I already did submit Brian Harman I think you could still change it I’m not sure so Spencer I keep it though you might just be Treading Water this week but I did just reveal

That to you guys so now you guys have a little bit of Advantage so you can move it around I’m saving Poston likely for the John Deere classic um whereas I can’t save Harmon for the RSM because it’s not in our in our pool so um you can save them for the Open

Championship the different coures here but um yeah so I I have Brian Haron right now not sure that I’m I think we can change it before Thursday you you can change it whenever I mean I think that might and I tinker seven times until like one hour before lock every

Single week but last week it was easy because I was I was full on Jordy on the show stayed with it I’m happy with my decision so yeah I I went a little different last week with dalala it worked out not as well as it would have

Worked out with without Kirk but I like where I’m at and I can be a little bit more safe with an $800,000 lead over second place so I think I’m going to do that this week with Brian Haron although L go bear intrigued but I have to I

Think I’m going to use him at an event where there’s more money at stake further down the line um anyways getting into the punch the tickets that I have punched this week I have not been very aggressive this week and did a lot of number grabbing so I’ll start with the

Longest number I punched I did punch a ticket on Joel Damon at 100 or sorry at 175 to one I think you can get better out out there in the market than that but I like how he plays on these I like him as someone who can

Get hot with his irons uh kind of like a seaw Kim where you can kind of stay off the Putter and win in spite of it even if he gets really hot but at 175 to one I wanted to punch a ticket on him just

To take a shot I also liked and I like all these other ones a lot more than that first ticket I have Taylor pendrith 140 to1 he’s a guy who we’ve mentioned also is a bomber but plays well on some of these Club down tracks he just had a

Down year last year we remember at the end of 2022 he went on a 1012 tournament string where he was on fire and was playing finishing in top 15 almost every single week last year down year this year new start fresh beginning and with

Him at 140 to1 I think he’s got a lot more Talent than a lot of the other golfers in that price range so I like him in upside markets this week uh whether you want to bet him to win outright top 10 top five maybe even top

20 depending on if you can get ties paid in full I think those are all worth a hard look on Taylor pendrith additionally I also have a few guys whom I really like as more plotters who can get really hot with their irons and guys

Who have won in recent years on the PGA tour so Tom hogi 90 to1 got some of that Amano Grio at 80 to1 I saw him at open at 90 to1 go down to like 60 to1 and now back up to 80 to1 so I bet him at 70 to1

And I scooped some more up today at 80 to1 so I really like Grio he had not the best week last week but just a pure number grab for me on a guy who’s been putting better recently than he has traditionally and who can get scorching

Hot with his irons uh same thought there with Tom hogi and then I have two other guys in the 50 to1 range so Spencer I believe you mentioned Cam Davis is a guy whom we Target in some Club down courses I like him again this week for those

Reasons even though he had a poor result last week at the sentury very different course and he has had some strong horse history here at Wy and overall he’s played some really strong golf in his last 12 starts eight of them have been in the top 12 and no real weaknesses

Although driving accuracy is but on the club down course I think that will be mitigated to a degree more so than it will be for other golfers who are long and less accurate and then also I wrapped up my card so far with a bet on

Keegan Bradley at 55 to1 he wanted The Travelers last year and another similar Club down course his course not quite as tight as that one but he’s a guy who can get really hot with his irons I know his Bermuda numbers I saw Spencer in your

Sheet were really bad uh but his overall putting has been good or has been strong I believe he’s better on Bentgrass than Bermuda but it’s been a long time since he played put it on really any Bermuda grass so hopefully with a bigger sample size with the relatively not relatively

New putter it’s been around for a year and a half but hopefully he can fig figure that out and I wanted to bet guys further down the board 50 to one or longer give me some room to bet in tournament because it looks like they’re

Going to be they’re going to be 20 plus M hour winds Thursday and Friday so if there is a wave Advantage I wanted to save some bullets in the chamber to potentially take advantage of that um so Lou goar Brian Harmon happen to be on the right side of one of those edges

Especially if one of the other two is on the wrong side I’ll be very intrigued about potentially punching a ticket on one of those guys um guys any other notes you want to make before we move on to the rest of our cards got a question for you

Guys go ahead Nick all right what are your thoughts he’s finished inside the top 30 this last two times I think it’s only two times here in terrible form finished inside the top 10 last year we can get a number of 200 to one for one

Of the best Putters on the planet that’s all all I could say about this guy if you want to guess who it is um let me look let me let me give a m MAV mcney I don’t think I’ve ever bet him in my life but 200 to one I got him

At 160 so it’s not like for that low of an implied win Equity like it’s not that big of an edge for me in terms of like percentiles but it would grade out as a push to push the ticket so 200 to one I

Got to give one we got to give one bomb on here right I’ll push back on you just a bit there is no such thing as bad form for these guys who didn’t play last week true well okay so looking at his history he usually ends the fal swing inside the

Top 20 of every single tournament and then this year that just he fell off a cliff so it can’t get any worse right I I don’t think like okay I don’t think we’ll ever see a 200 to1 number on him again in a tournament that’s

I I would say this is a rather weak field it’s not a weak field but I’m gonna do it I think I’m going to do it guys there’s another guy at 200 to one in will Gordon whom I thought you might be refer you love will go but I yeah no

I if if I’m betting someone to win I I need I need a Putter and uh unfortunately will is not that but I do love you will I know you’re listening so I will find you at a different tournament but not this one Spencer is he dead last in your

Numbers or what just just say it no he’s he’s not dead last in my numbers I think at least with him you have the pedigree of a player that shouldn’t be 200 to one the injury bug that caught him in 2023 really just derailed that entire

Season for him since he’s come back we haven’t necessarily seen the results that we would want um I don’t think it’s 250 to one sorry 250 to one I found in my market holy I got it I got it right he’s been he’s been great here with

Back-to-back top 27 finishes I I think it’s one of those things Nick where if you’re if you’re throwing a dart like he’s too good of a player to be in that range I kind of worry that he misses the cut just because of some of the proximity numbers even on the good end

Of my model without even taking into account the injuries but I mean at least it’s a golfer that has played well here before who at his very best was a golfer that probably in this event would be in the 60 or 7 to one range versus what he

Is if yeah I think that’s what my numbers are kind of pointing to so it’s throwing money on fire but I’m going to do it and then I will be done with my outright card who do you guys think is the longest price golfer who can win this tournament in the outright

Market well doesn’t necessarily have to have value but who can win it might be one in a thousand think my answer was just me I was going to say my boy uh takumi Kaya but his price is shorter than Maverick mcne so he’s out this is this is going down the wrong

Path Roberto I was doing better of last week getting off of all the players that I talked about every week I guess Kevin U oh that’s that’s Roberto’s guy isn’t it that’s car that was what I was thinking maybe Ryan Moore if I want to

Stick to the UNLV theme I guess like my model really liked Ryan more I think there’s more volatility with Kevin Yu but um I don’t know what more pric out uh the best price in the market for him that I see would be 250 to

One okay I’m seeing him at 140 at bet 365 I’m seeing Kevin newu at 350 at bet 365 alongside Carl Yuan who gets the John ROM to live award because ke because Carl Yuan was 126 in the FedEx Cup standings was not he was going to

Get a partial PGA Tour card or partial PGA Tour status not have a PGA Tour card but because John ROM left he is number 125 your Bubble Boy and he’s a full PGA Tour member this year so congratulations to him he’s at 350 to1 alongside Kevin

Yu I will argue that chz reevy at 350 to1 also could win this golf tournament um that’s good name drop there I do like that one I’m going to take a peek at some of his top 10 top 20 odds I think we could get something intriguing there

Um in fact I’m n of those guys have ever made a putt on the PGA tour ever but I’m seeing rev at plus 2,000 for a top 10 I think I’m going to punch that ticket with all the ties paid in full in full if if we want to just keep throwing out

All these gross names at the bottom Um Zack Blair I see him at 400 to one at a book out there good proximity numbers with in my model grades is a value for me yeah so I’m in so yeah if you’re listening at home you don’t have to bet

These maybe sprinkle them into your DFS Place some market look check out whatever you got or keep an eye on them um for future weeks at other similar type of courses uh but all right we’ve toiled down at the bottom of the of the board for a while Spencer what what else

Do you have on the rest of your card this week the only other thing is the the top 20 bet on spencon so there’s there’s not a lot for me I I hope that there’s going to be some opportunities and that’s one of the reasons why I also

Didn’t build out my card in a fashion that I couldn’t jump in from an inter tournament perspective um I think there may be certain players that inevitably are going to draw the wrong side of the wave draw and that’s something that we may be able to take advantage of I I

Still believe that the in tournament head-to-head Market is the best value opportunity that you can find on the board at this point I think books have gotten a lot savier with some of these pre-tournament Bets with the way that they Place players against one another don’t think you’re finding as much value

As you used to be able to in the past and I think when you do find an advantage it’s heavily Juiced to the correct side and I think that’s an advantage of books kind of correcting it but I kind of still believe that that inter tournament sector is where you can

Find an advantage just because there are mistakes to be found out there I like it I think that’s a smart way of attacking this this tournament and I’m going to do the same Nick any other plays on your card this week I got one U but like you guys said

I think I’m going to wait for the wave to to finish the most the rest of my C just to see what this weather is actually going to do but I did punch a ticket on Tumi Kaya top 20 on bet 365 5

To1 I had that at 4.2 so plus 420 is my odds so I’ll take the 80 points of value in the top 20 Market where ties do pay in full so I’m all for it all right I’m going to take a couple couple other long shots here so I’m

Adding ched reevy at 20 to1 for top 10 with all ties paid in full I’m going to go Camila Vias six to1 for top 20 we have to have our propaganda for lab Putters so he shot eight under par in the first round at the Sentry last week was

Absolutely rolling the Rocks gained over seven strokes putting he had a really strong fall can’t necessarily tell you exactly how he did it because there wasn’t Strokes gain data throughout those tournaments but but he is someone who has played and won on the PGA tour multiple times and someone who might

Have a higher ceiling than I think is being priced in for playing as consistently as he did throughout the fall and for just Lally one day last week I think he finished at 12 under par after shooting eight under in the first round not great overall and the first

Round was buoyed by the putter but in this field that lacks Elite Talent outside of Oar for top 20 to get to six to one I think it’s worth a shot where ties are paid in full gentlemen wanted to give a quick reminder that the links and locks podcast is proudly presented

By bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary they believe that every sport should be epic every touchdown every game every point every play from the moments that are legendary to the ones that fly under the radar see for yourself when you sign up today with code action that’s act n

And you’ll get $365 in bonus bets when you bet just $1 whatever the sport whatever the moment it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older only must be present in Colorado Kentucky Iowa New Jersey Ohio or Virginia if you or someone you know has a gambling problem

And wants help call 1-800 Gambler in Colorado Kentucky New Jersey Ohio in Virginia or 1800 bets off in Iowa terms and conditions apply all right fellas if we’re done with our cards want to do a quick a quick knockout or a quick rapid fire round to touch on some other

Golfers we haven’t talked too much in depth about let’s do it all right so we mentioned the top of the board moreo discussed Lou goar but if you had to get a t if you had to punch a ticket on either Matt Fitzpatrick or trell Hatton

Whom would it be I’ll start with you Spencer 18 to one for each of these guys I’ll go with Fitzpatrick um there are some really high-end metrics in my model that liked him this week there are a couple things that inevitably pushed me in a different direction um I thought

And I guess this a little bit different of an answer than what Nick talked about I did think that o Hatton and Fitzpatrick were the This Not That Nick didn’t say they were the three deserving favorites but I thought they were a very strong group at the top I thought there

Was a difference between them I mean I think Henley you could throw into that mix Harmon that I’ve talked about if you want to say Poston is kind of that next name too for me but um I don’t dislike any of them I will go for with with

Fitzpatrick for the sake of the show but I kind of liked all three of them how about you Nick I’m gonna go Fitzpatrick jumping down a tier two because we talked about Henley and Harmon Chris Kirk is 27 to1 Eric Cole 32 to1 sahit deala 32 to1 and also Harris

English 32 to1 among those four guys Kirk Cole de Gala and English Spencer which one would you most like to have a ticket on I don’t necessarily want any of them I guess um if you had to take a free ticket that I’ve given you who are you taking I’ll take Chris

Kirk I I get I mean my model would say Eric Cole in this answer but for a player that’s not naturally great off the te with distance or accuracy this does feel like one of those venues that could bite him a little bit um I think Kirk has definitely obviously

From what we saw last week found something and it’s not uncomon for guys to begin this year with just form that they can run back to back so uh if Kirk could do it in that field I don’t see a reason why he couldn’t do it

Here Kirk for me yeah Kirk his swing’s just so repeatable I love it it’s something I try to mimic as a golfer myself I do not do that though unfortunately but I got Kirk three points shorter he also has two top five finishes at this vendue giving Chris

Kirk I like Kirk a lot I think the G is the best golfer among those but I don’t like the course fit for him uh nearly as much as I did capala last week jumping down again Denny McCarthy’s 35 to1 Benny an is 38 to1 defending Champion SE Kim is

38 to1 and Jay Rose Justin Rose is 38 to1 on bet 365 as well if I gave you a free ticket on one of those four guys Spencer whom would you pick I won’t go with rose since I already have the ticket there um I wouldn’t mind

Doubling down and getting an extra bet there but I guess I’ll go with Ben on I think an is in for a really big 2024 um I’m not so sure that markets and we maybe got a little bit of a correction this week but I’m not so sure

Markets have corrected to just how good he actually is like no matter how I run my model he’s a top 30 player for the entire PGA Tour and you get a much weaker field here so um I think he’s an intriguing name to keep an eye on as the

Beginning portions of the season start so Benny an is a guy who before last year on the PJ tour two years ago was on the corn fairy tour lost his card and he went through the depths of putting woes when he was the wor one of the worst Putters on the PJ tour

Consistently which is impressive not because he’s bad at putting but because you can keep your card while being on the PGA tour and being such a poor Putter and now that he has seen the light and moved to the torless uh broomstick putter he’s putting well he

He was one of the better Putters last week I believe he gained over five Strokes putting for the week I can pull up the exact number in a moment but that’s a game changer for a guy who was one of the worst to now grades out his

Average by data golf at least I’m very intrigued by him I don’t love the course fit for him but if he is so good that the course fit doesn’t matter that’s something that I’m going to keep an eye on especially after seeing him do so well last week which one of those guys

Sorry go ahead Spencer no I was just gonna say it’s that same similar positive trajectory that we’ve seen with the golfer like Luke list if you can go from being one of the worst Putters on the PGA tour if not the worst Putter and all of a sudden in a field like this

You’re a top 40 sort of player you can win at a ball striking course so um I think he’s intriguing for that reason but I’ll let Nick answer the question I already have Justin Rose so I was gonna go with Ben on as well he was

Using a lab putter wasn’t he yes he has been he was one of the first ones last year relatively thought he’s not on their website but when I watch on TV it’s like that’s he’s using the mesan isn’t he or the mesan max I think so

Yeah Roberto and I are uh are sold so lab if you guys want to sponsor the show let us know we’ll give some free plugs uh I guess it wouldn’t be free if you’re sponsoring the show but yeah you get it you’re already getting free plug so yeah

I’m gonna go with Ben on um long story long all right jumping into the 50 to1 range Hideki Matsuyama is 50 to1 Brendan Todd is 50 to1 and Andrew putam 50 to1 actually scratch Andrew putam let’s add will Z torus in here at 55 to one among

Todd Matsuyama and zalot torus which one of those three guys would you rather have a ticket on if I gave it to you I gave the same answer last week for Hideki that he had a boomer bust potential and maybe he could find something and he didn’t he came in

Second to last place so I understand the concern and maybe just the portions of his game that need to be clicking or not right now but Champion here in 2022 I worry about zalatoris um he’s going to obviously be Boomer bust of where he’s at right now but that is a severe

Surgery that he had like I’d like to see him produced before I necessarily jump back in on him and then uh what was the other name Roberto Brendan Todd yes Brendan Todd’s going to be the safer answer of that group I don’t know if I necessarily think of win equity in an

Event or any event really but he is the safest option in my model but I’d rather shoot for the upside if I’m getting a ticket here to try to win this event how about you Nick I’m still gonna have faith in Hideki I know it wasn’t there last week

But you know go back to a place you’ve won in dramatic fashion with all things too I’m I’m going to go with Fi regarding Wills alot torus he’s a guy whom I’ve been extremely high on throughout his career obviously the major back surgery throws a wrench into

Things if you guys do you guys have a plan on how you might want to bet will Al torus or what you’re looking for this week to potentially set him up for a tournament where you like his fit later down the road I think it’s a difficult question

Roberto if we’re if we’re looking specifically for betting the second cuz I mean we’re even looking at prices right now that depending on what book you’re trying to find them at I I don’t think the numbers are that high for everything that he’s gone through so the

Second you see any sort of a form from him I think you’re going to jump back into that classic will zalatoris range of the price that he’s at I guess from a trying to find Value answer of that I would just like to see something to one

He looks healthy if he can look healthy that’s a great start and two if he can just be neutral with some of those portions of his game that have been historically what’s been great for him uh you might be able to find him as he falls and dips potentially in odds like

That would be more of where I would want to jump in is when a book ends up you know skyrocketing him up into the 8090 100 range for one of these tournaments that uh you know they think he has less win Equity at so I just don’t know if

We’re going to get that in fields like this because books are going to kind of shade against him just because he is such a publicly backed player and I mean if they think that he actually has upside I guess there’s like no reason to get burned when you don’t know right now

One way or another but I I think he’s extremely volatile like I don’t know if there’s a player in this event that’s more volatile than he is I think that I was very excited to see him also moved to a lab Putter and then we saw at the Hero World Challenge

I believe it was he shot a first round score that began with an eight and he looked really really shaky on some of those short putts so I’d like to see the short putts I’d like to see seem do better on those short putts I think he’s

Going to be fine on the medium to long range putts because he can get a more flowing stroke with the putter but I also want to look at his ball speed want to see if he’s hitting it as far if he has that same um if he can be elite and

Bomb it down there and potentially if he plays poorly this week because of the Putter and the ball striking numbers are there might be interesting guy to potentially back at a major championship at a major championship because I think his game translate to those type of courses when

He is healthy the question just remains if he is that healthy so um he’s going to be somebody I keep an eye on this week and further down the line we’ve covered everybody who is 50 to1 or shorter in the outright Market this week because any other golfers that you

Wanted to touch on before we get out of here no I was going to bring up JJ spawn so I’m happy that Nick has already done that I think that there’s Boomer bus potential behind his game game um I think unfortunately when you look at a

Venue like this when it is so predictive in rollover success from year toe books kind of have that already priced into the mix so it’s it’s hard to find too many deviations and too much value and I think that can be accounted for with a lot of like we none of us necessarily

Have a robust card that we’re releasing this week we’re all trying to pick and choose where we thought there were value spots to be found but um not necessarily my favorite betting C for that reason just because that course history answer has really suppressed a lot of the value

On any of those names that I would have like to have tried to have punched a ticket on in a different scenario I got one I got a pair of guys whom I’ll offer it to you if I gave you a ticket on AE Patia at 65 to1 or Nick

Taylor at 80 to1 these are the first two guys off my card whom would you rather have I’ll give it to you Spencer my model loved o Shay this week um it’s a very similar answer that I think I would give to the Lucas Glover point that I talked about to where the

Ball striking can be elite the putting is what could hold him back if he does not make putts you’re going to run into problems but he at least with him and and I don’t know what the best price is in front of me right now in the market I

Think that’s something that’s been drifting for him I if at least with him if you’re taking on that volatility with the putter you’re getting it at a number that’s over 50 to1 in the space so like that is more conducive for me to want to jump into the mix I worry more about

These golfers that I’ve talked about with the putting when they’re 2025 to one I think it’s a different answer when you can get them 50 60 70 80 to one in that range and that’s kind of how I tried to build my card and it’s I am

Actually happy that you brought him up because he was one of the first ones that missed my card also um inside the top 15 for me in pretty much every single way that I ran my numbers this week those are all great points and I think

That’s similarly how I like to attack it with if I’m going to invest in somebody who I know is taking up a bunch of my bankroll for the week at 20 25 to one got to be somebody I believe in with the putter unless their name is Scotty

Sheffler in which case rules don’t apply to him Nick any thoughts on batia versus at 65 or Taylor at 80 I’d go Nick Taylor I think he’s kind of checks every single box that I’m looking for I don’t think there’s a ton of upside um but actually I know the ball striking

Is a lead at times it just he he worries me a little bit I know he fell off for a cliff again on Sunday he was you know getting ran down by some of the best players in the world but I’d go with Nick Taylor I think I’d lean Taylor too and I

Think I’m gonna add him to my card but batia might sneak his way on there as well still got some room for him um just looking at how Nick Taylor has done win last year at the Canadian open where he gained almost three and a half Strokes

Per round and gained four .3 Strokes per round at the Phoenix Open but I believe Scotty sheffler made putts that week so he lost but normally you gain 4.3 shokes per round you win 90% of the golf tournaments on the PGA tour um I think ni Taylor’s got a higher ceiling than

People might think uh but I really like both those two golfers and batia is someone who also has his best golf ahead of him so gonna be intrigued to see them I’m going to be intrigued to bet him at these type of prices because I don’t think they’re going to be there for

Super long fellas I know you guys have got a bunch of great content out there this week where can the people find you starting with you Nick yeah at wi daily Sports for the NFL playoff breakdown in terms of DFS and some player props and then at

Better golf pod to talk more DFS on the Sony Open with our boy Spencer here awesome Spencer how about you you can find me on Twitter at tof sports uh if you want to see any of the numbers that I’ve talked about you can get them

On my model over at R baller and I will have content throughout the entire week here at Action Network we’re going to talk about the outright Market on Wednesday we’ll jump back into that bread and butter Market of mine of the in tournament bets was able to start the

Year two and0 there so that was a nice little start I will say Roberto and I know you were my editor for the one article it took everything in my power pretty much every single day to not bet Jason day in each matchup and that’s not

How I wanted to start my 2024 but all those matchups would have one so there’s always little tidbits of information if there is value out there that I try to throw into the mix too I know you’re Pro you’re protesting his new outfits but um I’m a believer

That he has some potential he has he has some pieces in the outfits that I thought I didn’t hate and overall bullying Works will bully him into wearing some cooler stuff down the line but I do like that he’s wearing a different look um but we’ll see if he

Figures it out both on and off the course um you can find me on Twitter Roberto 8213 I’ll be editing everything at Action Network golf related this week so you can find Our Best Bets article live once you hear this show we’ve got one and done picks from Matt Ganon we’ve

Got Jason soil’s Mega guide we’ve got Spencer with the tournament in tournament picks which I believe went two and0 last week and then we’ve also got um a ton of other content coming tomorrow first round leader other prize picks plays so whatever you want however you’re betting golf or or prize picking

It you can find it on the Action Network where we’ve got you covered also got the other podcast here on links and locks the Best Bets uh as well so be sure to download the app uh check the website tell a friend tell an enemy whatever you

Got to do of course we’ve got a bunch of great NFL content with the super Wildcard Weekend starting this weekend so excited for all that stuff and check it out on the Action Network app so once again I want to give a big thanks to everybody who makes this podcast

Possible especially our producers nor neher who stays up in the middle of the night to do this or early in the morning depending on how you look at it and our executive producer Matt Mitchell uh want to thank all the listeners for helping us please um review the show if you like

It review the show if you don’t like it it helps us either way uh thanks again for your support and if there’s anything we can do to help you out hit us up and we’ll uh we’ll try to do that for you so thanks again for tuning in want to give

One final reminder that the links and locks podcast is proudly presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary they believe that every sport should be epic every touchdown every game every point every play from the moments that are legendary to the ones that fly under the

Radar see for yourself when you sign up today with code action and you’ll get $365 in bonus bets when you bet just one single dollar whatever the sport whatever the moment it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older only must be present in Colorado Kentucky Iowa New

Jersey Ohio or Virginia if you are someone you know has a gambling problem and wants want help call- 1800 Gambler in Colorado Kentucky New Jersey Ohio and Virginia or 1800 bets off in Iowa terms and conditions apply thanks again for tuning into our Sony Open in Hawaii tournament preview and here’s to Hing

You hit the green this week and aloha