Step into another winning weekend at The Sony Open in Hawaii 2024 with our experts’ PGA DFS preview & best bets!
Will Brian Harman (20-1) walk away the winner at Waialae Country Club or can Chris Kirk (22-1) keep the flatstick steaming?
PGA analysts Conor Coughlin & Bo McBrayer tie one off on “The 19th Hole (S4 E2).”
00:00:00 Introduction
00:05:32 Waialae Country Club Preview
00:13:02 Tournament History
00:14:00 Stats to Build Around
00:16:44 Sony Open Best Bets 2024
00:20:58 Sony Open Outrights
00:41:25 Sony Open Prop Bets
00:43:26 Sony Open DFS Preview
00:46:04 High-Tier Plays & Fades
00:46:51 Mid-Tier Plays & Fades
00:53:39 Low-Tier Plays & Fades
01:01:43 Final Predictions & Outro
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Hey guys welcome back to the 19th Hole this week we’re staying in Hawaii Aloha Mahalo we are doing the Sony Open at Wy Country Club this is a whole different ball game from last week at capala stay tuned after this short intro for the 19th Hole Hey guys welcome back Aloha make sure you like And subscribe I forgot to say that in the intro we’re off to Rip Roar and start uh Connor you got the Glen Karen um I’m going full rocks you’re still on mute he doesn’t know what to do I’m just
Choking sec we’re both a mess obviously I just thought it was fitting to drink the bottle that I got from you for beating your ass in DFS last year to celebrate me beating your ass in DFS one for one this year it was pretty close this last
Week I mean some guy named B says we’re a couple of hacks but at least we handsome I heard that guy has like a spice and hot sauce company or something yeah they’re best flavors you’re gonna find on the internet for for a relatively good price our boy from Canada Royal Slade
From up up there in the province of Alberta and deei is back with us she missed us we love you Dei thank you cheers uh Connor what are we what are we uh what are we tipping back tonight you got the red breast 15 that I sent
You it’s delicious isn’t it it is delicious I I like to savor it I’m gonna have one of those and then I will be switching to the uh the old standby Silver Bullet Rocky Mountain piss water the mountains aren’t blue really I mean they’re sort of blue but I don’t I don’t
Even know if that’s a thing anymore I just drink them so fast doesn’t matter Dei likes us still so we’re doing good if Dei still likes us and then green screens media must have something to do with the slick layout because they’re complimenting our slick layout it is nice uh it it looks
Really a lot better than it did in years past not to say it was bad but it looks slick you’re right green screens media shout out to them and I love I love the turf at the bottom me too there’s a little tea there with the the in between the lighthous
The the water tower is on a te is that perfect or what yeah I’m loving it I’m loving it I feel I feel very professional right now DD is also tipping back the Silver Bullets I put a little bit of or a lot of bit of Buffalo Trace and a lot of bit
Of coke so you gotta get that coke gotta get that coke out of there yeah YY oh how how was your week how was your week last week B I was defiantly sharp not definitely sharp defiantly sharp we were pretty sharp last week we didn’t hit the outright but we had some
Good bets uh some of the guys that we told you to fade did terribly so you’re welcome guys you’re welcome for fading Scotty Sheffer and Victor havin because they all fell apart uh our guy uh ludvig oberg who is sporting some really short odds despite not really proving anything
Other than he’s an exciting prospect almost got dead last uh that’s that was another hit for me a lot of top 10 that I hit ended up paying off and breaking me even for the week on the betting side I did win some money on DFS even though
I did not Prevail over one Connor Coughlin dude how close were we on theala oh oh man when you said theala I was like I could see it I could see it uh but unfortunately Chris Kirk who were not on because he’s a better fit for this week unfortunately won the
Tournament with a hell of a Sunday props to Chris Kirk friend of the show uh outstanding Sunday round really an outstanding weekend for Chris Kirk and the gala played well enough to win but he just got beat one stroke it’s all it tick and we unfortunately lost your prop
Bet with the playoff because well Chris Kirk thanks man dick we were so so close on so many things man it was almost a massive payday that’s a but that’s a great sign that we’re already locked in to the way these golfers are going to play uh we’re locked in let’s take a
Look at I believe we have a new little drop that started last week for caddy notes so we can talk about this golf course wly Country Club longstanding golf course on the PGA tour for the Sony Open uh let’s let’s tip it off here right Here so uh Seth our fearless leader loves the polo he sent me for Christmas love it I also have the Hat I wore last week I wore this Polo to work because I am required to wear a polo shirt at work and I usually have to rush in for
Showtime right after work so I wore the polo to work didn’t have to change before the show started this is a winwin win for me uh love the logo the water tower reminds me of my hometown except our water tower was like baby blue like perwinkle
Blue all right so you you you wore the Hat last week you wore the polo this week I think I’m gonna rock the Hat next week okay I didn’t want to show up like like like two two uniform so we’re blaming Eric romoff for uh for him being
Late tonight too for Seth being late to the show thanks Eric great great job for keeping the leader from watching the better show on Tuesday nights no offense to theot football show after us but the golf shows where where the money’s really made on the betting side uh this
Show was up I think 300 units year to date last season I did the math uh from my articles on the betting Pros side PL with all the same guys I’m touting on the shows that I do including this one is the Mig big long show we do our golf
Betting uh Connor tell us about why life Country Club because it’s a very unique course yes sir Sony Open it Wii Country Club in Honolulu Hawaii we’re par 70 about uh 7044 on the yardage uh Fairways are Bermuda uh we’re g to be a hell of a
Lot narrower than we were at capala it’s a short King definely definitely a short short short walk uh second shot course uh much like last week but a little more Amplified here um definitely looking at very well-rounded approach so looking at multiple different buckets on that approach metric um I know that there’s
Been some um I guess uh some tactics in growing the rough up here it’s it’s affected the scoring a little bit but to be honest even missing the Fairway here um is not super penalizing um let’s get behind a tree yeah and that that’s maybe that’s maybe one of the bigger
Differences too is you do have a fair amount of trees line in the fairways here um but yeah the greens are like I said Bermuda going into um smaller than average to tour standard greens uh also Bermuda complexes uh we’re going to see significantly more people missing the greens this week just
Given the the uh massive reduction in size from the previous um I know that there’s differing opinions on it uh the weather does come into into play here um for the most part it’s going to be similarly tamed to last week there are going to be
Some gusts on a couple of the days um could be approaching 20 miles an hour what’s nice about this course is there are parts of it that are fairly well protected depending on the way the winds blowing given the tree linage and and some of the adjacent buildings and such
Um so we do get a little bit more protection on at least part of the course than we did last week so if the wind kicks up uh little little more Saving Grace there um I would say that this is going to be somewhere in the neighborhood at 21 under still um even
If the wind does kick up I’d say the Cut’s going to be somewhere around three or four under um we’ve got our previous winners were SEIU last year at 18 under Hideki the year before at 23 under Kevin nah at 21 under and then Kevin uh I’m
Sorry cam Smith year before at 11 under which was a pretty rough season as Bo alluded to I think the tournament’s been held here since the early 60s if I remember right so long long standing uh uh loop on the on the Roto so think that’s about I love this course
I used to play the Nintendo 64 game which was called Wy Country Club golf uh you only had one player and only only course was W Country Club it was a specially designed game for this course uh and it it was it’s still the same course as it was back then they’ve
Rearranged some of the whole layouts and it’s a par 70 now instead of par 72 that was a two decades ago when that game was very popular I played that game for hours and hours and hours every day I know this course like the back of my
Hand uh very very important to have a good short game here and Par for especially since they switched to par 70 here is Paramount uh Strokes gain par 4 uh par 4 birdie or better average uh because there are 10 par fours that are all pretty challenging the par 3es are
Kind of long the par fivs are getable but there’s only a couple of them I love going after parf yeah only two and they’re they’re getable though and they are they’re they’re where the scoring is mostly going to happen but the guys that can hit the good approach shots stay out
Of trouble around the greens and make timely putts of course but less important on the putting this week than last week and a lot more important around the greens than last week and the approach distances of course are different than last week because the course is so much shorter uh I I agree
With you Connor I think a different golfer win a different type of golfer wins this week uh even Chris Kirk was a surprise last week we were both surprised by that because he was more of a Wy guy more than a calua guy he’s played Wy outstand in his entire career
Uh so he’ll be in the mix here but we want to focus on ignoring driving distance all together it has no correlation here whatsoever this is going to be finding the Fairway or at least getting yourself in position to hit a an approach into some of these
Pins on smaller greens and if you miss the green being able to get up and down without making bogeys because get making Bogies on a course where you’re probably going to look at 20 underpar as the winning score yeah it’s it’s going to be important car fors are absolutely brutal
Here they can be especially if the wind is up uh that’s that’s something we have to pay attention to and getting into the betting side of it I expect uh I expect a long shot winner this week honestly and I’m pleasantly surprised by some of the long odds on some of my favorite
Guys here this is an opportunity to win a lot of money and to be get off to a flaming start with the bank uh snowballing that’s that’s going to be really important to would you agree with that Connor yes I don’t know I don’t know if I agree wholeheartedly that a long shot
Wins um I think somebody in the in the probably 20 to1 to 35 maybe getting into the 50 to1 area so I mean I guess if we’re going to call that a long shot um somebody somebody who’s not an immediate favorite I guess is is what I would say is probably going
To win here yeah and that’s uh that’s where I’m at is this is a Classic Tournament W like country club is pretty awesome it for how small it is it’s a pretty pretty decent course that’s why it stood the test of time on the PJ tour
Uh most the the the field is a little weaker than last week no doubt but I have a lot of fun watching this tournament because I’ve played so many video games of this tournament I don’t know what it is about the video game from my childhood it just it comes to
Play every time I think about the Sony Open I can’t I can’t stop thinking about playing that game for so many hours when I was a teenager I uh yeah I I believe it or not never played that game as a matter of fact I skipped most golf games I uh I
Have a moderate to substantial uh golden tea uh addiction nowadays but you’re actually good at that game that game’s hard as hell that game that game ain’t easy but uh but um yeah I mean I think I think a couple of things with this course is you know we we both kind of
Hit on a little bit but it does have some teeth and it doesn’t maybe have apparent teeth but you can get yourself and kind of in in kind of a downward spiral you start missing greens start uh getting a little bit off track um setting up for your second shots um you
Can have a bad time here and then you compound that if the weather does kick up a little bit or um like like I just said if you’re uh if you’re not looking so hot on your second shot if you’re out in the trees or if you’re in the rough
Consistently like there’s some subtle things that can get you off track here um I think I think though it’s a short course it’s a it’s a pretty strategic course and it really does require that uh you’re good from all different um approach ranges and I mean the the two
That I focused on um really were that kind of one 100 to 125 and then like about the 175 to 210 ranges were the two that I really focused on um seems like the majority of of I guess um strategic Landing Landing spots off the tea are going to put you in those
Ranges so definitely took a lot a lot of looks at that and then like Bose said um par for scoring is Paramount here so that’s definitely something that I took a lot of time on as well um specifically looking at like the 450 is range on on
Where guys ex sell in that range on par fivs or par fours rather um I don’t think putting is as important but what’s going to what’s interesting is I was building out like some modeling and stuff trying to get a feel for who’s going to be good on this course the a
Lot of the winners recently have been on fire with the Flat Sticks so it’s it’s kind of tough to to narrow down who’s going to have the hot hand this week I mean if you look at Chris Kirk last week uh gained almost 11 Strokes on on the
Putting green so um that’s not sustainable but the rest of his game like Bose said does set up pretty well for here so I mean if his putter comes back down to earth a little bit I think we’re still looking at somebody who’s in contention and I believe last year we
Were on both seu Kim and Hayden Buckley who Hayden Buckley had the lead up until the very end seu had a crazy last couple holes to comeb come from behind and win uh but we we both cashed top five and outright bets and we were going to
Either way whether it was Buckley or SE we were going to win last year and that’s that’s where we hang our hat is like this is this is the type of course where we’re both like really honed in on the type of player we’re looking for and
As you’re going to find out in a couple seconds here with Club Twirls we’re betting on some really really nice odds on some of these guys uh and we agree on a lot of these guys I that’s why I’m excited to touch on this with you let’s
Hit the drop Club Twirls twirl those clubs Connor Once again we’re looking at draftking sports book here and the outright favorite to win is lud Vio great golfer better fit this week than he was last week in my opinion but still much too short for my liking like what is what is going on with these odds I understand
That the books are considering how much money is coming in on lud VI goar because because he’s such a great golfer we saw it last year he went three million dollars in his rookie season he’s an outstanding player but he wins and this is a tournament where first
Timers don’t do well and this is the type of tournament where we’re looking for somebody who’s seen this course before who can plan their way around it’s a very similar course to Pebble Beach it’s a very similar course to TPC Saw Grass where it’s a planner’s course
It’s a not necessarily a ball Striker course although we’re looking for that it’s who can decide where they’re going to land every shot and because the trade wins can kick up and probably will kick up uh knowing where your Landing spots are going to be and taking less than
Driver off the te as a rule here is kind of the way to win we saw it from SE last year we saw from Hayden Buckley last year we’ve seen it all the way through the years Hideki matama is great off the tea with iron and that’s why he’s had so
Much success here but what are what are your thoughts on ludig uh coming in as a 12 to1 favorite here it’s it’s funny and I mean it’s not funny but it’s it’s interesting because I think a lot of people share a similar sentiment to what
You do and that this is a better fit for him and I actually thought last week was a better fit for him because the big red flags for me around Oar are predominantly that approach game like we had a little four-week Spike right where he was is gaining strokes but last week
At as I think has reared its ugly head again he lost almost three Strokes on approach and Y that was on much much much bigger um green complexes he also lost almost three Strokes off the tea last week on Wide Open Spaces which is weird weird and and and you know in
Transparency like as you look at his stats like he really never does lose Strokes off the te so that may come back um a little bit this week but that approach thing I’m telling you is going to be his Achilles heel he’s not as
Dialed in um as he needs to be and I think that’s going to come with experience and getting back to what you said Bo I think a first timer here that struggles on the second shot is probably not gonna be a guy that I’m lining up to
Bet here especially not as the outright favorite with a guy who’s never won anywhere on the PJ tour I understand he was a rookie last year but uh we want to see more from him before we start placing bets under 15 to1 or under 20 to1 uh he hasn’t earned that right yet
And to for him to be in a loaded field last week as one of the favorites uh that was an easy fade for me this week’s a little tougher fade but his odds are even shorter this week than they were last week despite him playing so poorly
Uh I love the player I think he’s got a extremely bright future ahead of him but this is not where you hit up on lud VI oer wait till Riviera when he’s not a betting favorite and all the big the big guns are going to be at
Riviera that’s that’s where I’m going to be betting ludvig is that 25 to 30 to one on a course that’s tough where his robot likee consistency kind of comes into play uh that’s where I’m going to start playing him this week is just too soon for me uh where do you start your
Outright betting is it not far behind him because I’m not that far behind him no no it’s it’s it’s immediately behind him as a matter of fact it’s Russell Henley and Brian Harmon for me um thank you way way more Brian Harmon than Henley but um but I think I think at the
End of the week both will be end up on the card right now it’s it’s just Harmon but I’m I’m definitely uh right there with Henley and and with Brian Haron I mean everything just makes sense here uh accurate off the tea accurate on approach great great win player um
Control from all the main approach distances that we’re looking for his putter has been high 20 to one 20 to one and he impressed last week when we didn’t neither one of us thought he had any chance on a course that long but he was so hot with the putter he made up
For it and that like last week was a putting contest we should have known that he was going to hold his own because as long as you could putt well you can hang around at capala here the rest of his game really comes into play here where he’s such a good ball Striker
Especially with those shorter approach distance is uh par for scoring is his Forte that’s why he did so well in the major last year at the Open Championship very similar setup here to last week’s or last year’s Open Championship venue uh where it’s it’s Target Golf and this
Is this is exactly what Harmon’s looking for and a lot of people are betting up Terell Hatton who played extremely well last week too Matt Fitzpatrick those are fine and dandy but for me I’m looking at all the St hats and all the recent form recent form is the tiebreaker here and a
Little bit more bang for your buck on the betting side and I I don’t think there’s any better player in this field from Tia green than Russell Henley uh not as good in the short game as Harmon but uh as far as iron play is concerned
As far as accuracy off the te is concerned uh I’m with you on Henley but I’m a little bit more of an even split on those two guys we’re both start starting our cards with 20 to1 Harmon and Henley they’re a perfect fit here and it’s kind of sandwiched between the the
People are getting a little bit uh shorter odds that as we go along here Fitzpatrick and Hatton along with Cory Connors are picking up a lot of Steam on the betting side Connor’s odds have already shrunk to 22 to one uh Chris Kirk has gone from 30 to 22 I I
Predicted that yesterday I was like get give get him at 30 while you can because it’s not going to last uh we’re already seeing that but I’m very comfortable with Harmon and Henley here especially at their odds yeah those those are the two in this range that really stand out to me
The you know Chris Kirk I think Kirk’s going to compete and play well again this week I think the thing that stood out to me last week is um I you’re just you’re not going to continue to Pace at 11 Strokes gain putting like you’re that’s and and on this course it’s not
Sustainable anyway like you’re you’re not going to see that many 15 foot Birdie putts on this course you’re G see 25-footers and then you’re going to see oh I stuck it close and I an easy birdie and with that being said like some of the statistics in in terms of
Opportunity and and proximity with Chris Kirk just over the history or over the course of the last 12 months those those are some stats that are sometimes a little off for him um so not taking anything away from him not taking anything away from the fact that he you
Know does fit the course fairly decently I just think that going back to back and especially um needing even based on last week needing to have that hot a putter um I think that 22 on Chris Kirk is is awfully short um and that I was telling
Pat Fitz Morris yesterday is that I’m betting him at 30 I’m betting him at 25 but if he slips inside of 25 I’m out because that’s where he goes from a good bet to an iffy W that’s Chris Kirk is a very good golfer but he’s not not a 22 to1
Golfer no no I don’t think so either and I think I there is a guy right here that I know you’re probably going to disagree on um but I don’t care that his odds are short and that’s Eric Cole Eric Cole for me I am not disagreeing with you on Eric
Cole I love Eric Cole I what’s Wild is he’s already slipped uh three points uh since this morning I had him at 28 which thankfully we got um but he’s already down to 25 and uh I I’ll say this and every stat model I ran today uh ER Cole
Is number one and it wasn’t even close um so I think that this is a Lock and Load ER coal and uh and really that’s probably as far as investment goes I’m I’m pretty heavy on Cole I really really like how he sets up I love the form’s in
Um just everything is screaming Eric Cole season we need to address the elephant in the room here a lot of very quote unquote sharp people in the golf industry are touting Corey Connor this week uh his past success here is okay like he’s been decent here few top 10 a
Couple top fives uh his short game is so bad so bad that uh if you’re if you’re betting on Cory Connor to win this tournament uh don’t just don’t just avoid him because he’s been steamed up already to 22 to one and you have to
Have a short game here you have to be able to Chip and Putt here even though putting is not as important chipping is Cory Connor is chipping and putting both abysmal like we’re talking Bottom Rung on both of those stats for Corey Connors and he’s not gonna win here is it okay
To bet him top 10 sure I think he makes top 10 I don’t think he wins this turnour you are more optimistic than I am man really yeah yeah that that chipping and putting really drags him down when you weit especially Strokes gained around the green like I did which
Is 15% of my weight weighted model uh he was I think 101st out of 150 that’s not good far yeah I like hadwin more than Connor hey Canadians know they’re Canadians right I don’t I don’t know man I I’m not a I’m not a Cory Connor’s uh Kool-Aid
Drinker I’m sorry like if he we’re not neither one of us are like dude I can’t do it I can’t do it either there’s just so much suspect about his game there’s so much like uh inconsistency across the board with him here’s the book critique for you like I yeah there’s there’s way
Better ways to spend your money and I will tell you this if Corey Connors is the guy that that sticks it to you like I mean take your medicine I the likelihood of it I think is pretty slim here I just I don’t see it and there’s a couple guys
Here that were great fits last week that we both hit on last week that you hit on mostly but I agreed with you they’re both sitting at 30 to one here at Sony Open I think they’re complete fades for this golf course Ben on and sah theala uh no chance on betting either
One of those guys to be anywhere close making the cut this week I think both of those guys miss the cut at the Sony Open at 30 to1 those two guys both played extremely well last week they were great fits for Capal Lua they are horrendous
Fits for the Sony Open at Yi Country Club so uh agree with me there on on theala and on uh more theala than an an can get super hot uh on approach um the problem with theala is he kind of did exactly what we thought he needed to do
Was keep it together for four rounds and I think there was a lot less pressure um put he should have won though he should have won yeah he should have won don’t don’t disagree with that but I think that these I think that he has established in my mind that these are
The types of courses he’s going to do well at the courses that really deemphasize accuracy and just let him not it close sink his putt um and move on to the next toll anytime that you start talking strategic like second shot positioning anytime you talk about
Accuracy off the te or on a like on a narrower approach woof the gala to me just isn’t there yet do I think he can get there absolutely I think I think he’s got all crazy talent but he’s not there right now and and frankly not type
Of golfer and and frankly like we skipped right over him but dude JT Poston is playing an excellent golf right now and 28 to1 I mean speaking a short game speaking a short game and I I know I know you like Poston too so if you want to talk about him you
Definitely can but I I would invest in Poston long before I’d think about the Galla he’s accurate off the T I think his approach game needs a little bit more work but as far as short game goes like I trust him wholeheartedly around these screens even if he’s a little bit
Off on approach he’s not going to make a bunch of bogeys and knock himself out of this so uh he’s he’s a lock to make the cut and I think that he can make a push if he starts getting hot uh that’s if his approach game allows him to get
Close enough to these pins uh then we could we could hear some noise from JT Poston the postman delivers on courses like this Truth Truth uh who got we already touched on Adam hadwin that’s who I’ve got in uh the 50s um I well let’s not skip over
Our defending Champ here somehow at 35 to one seu Kim uh how is that possible that the defending champion of the event is 35 to one I didn’t talk about him because I in a lot of ways think it was a bit of a fluke like I don’t think that this sets
Up tremendously well for SEIU um I I disagree I mean I I let you I’m not gonna wholeheartedly disagree so you can definitely like definitely let us know why you’re on him I I there are spots I like seiw this isn’t going to be one of them regardless of History what
He showed me last year was that his accuracy off the te is as a weapon for him and he’s top five when it comes to off the tea accuracy especially when his courses have this length that’s what he showed last year he’s like I’m I’m hit
Two iron off every te I’m gonna put myself in position to hit approach shots he’s another guy like posten where yeah the approach game is not always great but man when he gets hot it’s unbelievable and he’s got a lot of good Kool-Aid at this place now he won over a
Million dollars last year on this course uh this guy is a winner and if I’m in a bet an outright I’m GNA I’m going to look at a 35 to one for a guy who just won this tournament last year and in pretty dramatic fashion uh this for me it’s it’s there’s
A lot worse bets you can make in that range even a top five is eight to one a top 10 is three and a half to one this guy is just too cheap it’s it’s too much of a of a nice green flag for me for a
Guy that played so well here and has really over the years been pretty good at w Country Club if you if you want my hottest take of the week I can see him missing the cut here oh that’s a good one I SM a side bet he is not he has not
Been performing very well off the tea as of late his approach game has been super suspect and what was once a hot putter about mid to late last season has cooled off dramatically like I don’t I don’t know I I want to believe in sewo I enjoy watching sewo
But I I can see uh I can see him slaming the old trunk too I I think it’s a really volatile bet well there’s a guy here sitting at 60 to one that was 50 to1 yesterday that I think could absolutely win this tournament and that’s AA batia and I
Know you disagree with me on this one but as far as approach distances go and part four scoring goes this course sets up a lot like old Greenwood up here in like Tahoe where he won last year uh very very similar layout very similar wind patterns same length of course same size
Greens uh he’s got he’s got a hot broomstick putter style now where his weakness last year was making putts and and getting up and down he’s not having that problem last week he was on fire with the Putter and his his wedge game coming into greens especially small once
Is spectacular I think if if you put a two iron in his hand or a fairway metal off the tea like I don’t trust him with a driver in his hand honestly like the wide Fairways last week were really nice for us to bet that uh this week he’s not
GNA have to hit driver very often at all this is the course where I I trust him more because he won’t be able to pull the big dog out of the bag that often and screw himself like he has on certain courses that demand distance and accuracy uh this course sets up really
Well for OA especially with how hot he’s been playing we’re talking about a mega talented golfer super young but that winning feeling that he got off the he got he got one under his belt last year in Tahoe I I just love the guy I think
60 to1 is an insult 50 to1 yesterday where I got him at first was crazy enough for me to bet it and now it’s even better so I’m going to keep piling on with batia 61 seems insane to me with how well he’s playing I’m let you I’m G let you ride
With that like he he’s he’s in a similar situation to what we said last week with the gala right if oay can keep it together four rounds execute all aspects of his game like he’s capable of 100% he could win here but I think that last week again he’s
Another guy like Kirk gaining six Strokes putting um to me especially given his track record is not a sustainable practice and so he’s going to have to find those stroke somewhere else on a narrow I want to believe in the broomstick I I dude I’m with you young
Dude young guy right he’s he’s got the tools he just needs to hone his craft a little bit more he’s gonna make a ton of noise on the tour and I did you see his post today no God is it him and his wife were doing their their tour laundry at
The launder m in aahu they’re kind of a cool couple too they’re like a DEC they’re both so nice when I met them at the tournament last year it was it was great because they’re both super nice people and big fans of one another that’s why I think they’re going to be
Great for a long long time on tour uh just because she knows a lot about the game herself she follows him all the way through the course every round and I I just think that what he has going right now for him is pretty much course proof
Especially if he keeps playing like you did last week you and I are going to have to agree to disagree right this sack on him I mean I just I don’t how did Luke Liss do for you last year by last week by the way pretty de man like like honestly for
My purposes he was pretty all right did you see his first round he was 11th in Strokes gain putting it didn’t hold but it was it was pretty interesting to see Thursday the first couple holes he had he was number one in putting and then he finished Thurs say as 11th in putting
But yeah it’s going to be the story with list all season right is like if he finds if he’s flat putting for the week he he’ll be in contention but no I’m G I’ll keep I’ll keep throwing a couple of bucks at list every week I I’m I’m
Coming around as as almost a borderline believer on list but um GE I can’t do it um I would say when you talk short uh kind of moving on a little bit when you talk short courses approach focused um JJ spawn is somebody that we don’t
Get a lot of chances to bet and 76 to one on on a guy who can be dangerously accurate on approach um and and can have a pretty solid putting stroke from time to time 76 to one I I really like the approach game with with spawn I think
That there are Dumber things to do with money he has won were you getting that line I had 76 to1 on DK what’s he at now 60 so apparently I’m not the only one that thinks it’s a good idea because I wrote that article this morning he’s an
Automatic cut maker like he’s made like 90% of his Cuts over the last year and a half uh unfortunately it hasn’t translated too much into high finishes he’s very very live to make the cut uh which if you’re looking at 60 to1 even his top 20 line is nice his cut making
Line is very nice uh that that might be something I look into but an outright or a top five or top 10 I’m not interested in JJ’s Spa that is wild though literally wrote that column this morning and he was at 76 well unless I typ I could have typed
My notes you shouldn’t have written it because obviously it’s catching a lot of steam from you writing about him oh yeah straight straight up I’m swaying the masses what’s probably more is that I had keep your platform suppressed until the show man God we need faster f Checkers we should tell the boss
That um my next one is pretty deep you’re going to hate it so I’ll let you go with your next one all right so I I go pretty deep myself here because I think it’s just a misprice like what is going on with this we’re we’re looking at uh I mean Rio
Hitas sun is probably your next one isn’t it sure sure is I thought so yeah mine’s a little deeper so actually will give you uh Rio go ahead H well I was trying to pull up the link to my article for the chat but uh
Let’s go let me dive back over get my stuff pulled up so I think what’s interesting with the Rio uh just something to think about uh he’s 74th in the world uh world golf rankings right now he has a win last season has a third
Place and he has eight top 10 uh is very accurate off the te bombs the hell out of the ball averages about 316 yards neither of those stats necessarily mean a lot here but uh but what is nice about him is he does have a a very decent um
Approach game uh can get pretty hot with the putter from time to time we’ve got a limited sample on PGA Tour but at 110 this is like a truly talented uh player from the DP World Tour and we’re gonna see him quite a bit so I think when talk
About him quite a bit too we’re gonna talk about him a lot this year well and you and I already have talked about him quite a bit so I think that this is a really good number on something that’s kind of sneaky under the radar he has a
Similar like similar killer Edge the way that some of these other guys do like he knows how to compete um so this is not going to be just some am rolling up to his first tournament like this guy is the real deal and he’s pretty long in comparison to where he probably should
Be yeah my two last ones are both at 150 to1 uh Dylan the five greatest rappers in the world Dylan W 150 to1 is just a misprice yeah dialon dialon dialon dialon and dialon um Miss priced 151 is an insult for how well he played last season as a
Rookie on the PJ tour one of the most consistent players last year on the entire tour uh I’m not saying bed a lot outright at 150 to one throw a couple bucks on him top 20 bet hell yeah let’s go Dylan woo let’s make us some money if
You’re getting four to five to one to pay out a top 20 on a guy that consistent uh that’s easy money this week because his game fits this course like a glove it’s an insult to his form all of last season for him to be at that line and then last year’s runnerup
Should have won Hayden Buckley uh scuffling lately but this course fits him like a glove too and if he could score better than par on Fridays he’d be the best scoring golfer in the world we establish that last year there’s Connor’s article but Hayden Buckley $150 won he
Got second place last year here what the hell’s going on top 10 top 20 get me all the Hayden Buckley at that line it just doesn’t make any damn sense con so I don’t like him for the outright but I’ll tell you what I do love is I
Love him for first round leader if we know one thing about ha Hell yeah Thursday scoring average was 67 last year and dude there was a I’m gonna double check it now now apparently there’s been all kinds of movement today but this afternoon when I wrote wrote
The column uh he was uh 100 to one first round leader I’m looking at it right now here I think it still is hitas Sun first round leaders 90 to one Al also have that one in the written up as well do0 to one 110 to one for Hayden Buckley
First round leader yeah I freaking love that to win the tournament no first round leader I like that um and if we’re at that point too what’s what I what’s Wild is if it’s held up Brian Harman 3 5 to one first round leader and Cole 45 to
One first round leader Russell Henley 40 yeah there’s some there’s some really tasty first round leader numbers bangers out here o batia 60 to one I know you hate that one but yeah the first the first round prop bets are going to be some some low investment high yield
Investments to make in this tournament Conor you’ve given us a lot to think about top five finish parlay Poston and Cole 75 to one yeah let’s make some damn money there’s some numbers out here man spend some time spend some time in the books yeah even de’s on
Board all right let’s I gotta pull up this hide that one we got to go to the drop for no trunk Slams are you ready for some DFS Connor dude you and I are having too much fun tonight I just looked at the clock I’m like holy cow all right the club is
Well this would be a Wrestling all right we’re looking at some crazy pricing in the DFS markets here D DK is giving us everything we want to build the lineup we want and they’re not going to do anything about it like I can build a lineup with all the guys I love and there’s still money
Left on the table here which is perfectly fine if you’ve watched the show before DFS is not about meeting the salary cap it’s about building your best lineup under the salary cap doesn’t matter how far under as long as you’re under the cap play the best plays uh
Especially if they’re leveraged we have plenty of Leverage to pick from at the top of this board especially since we’re fading some of the most expensive guys Conor where are you starting your lineups here uh it’s going to be no surprise but I’m going to be starting at
Harmon and Cole Harmon and Cole both under 10k easy Fades with lud viob be I think Hatton and Fitz are good for making the pool but maybe not at their ownership they’re super high owned sah theala is a fade for me completely a 10K I’m starting with Harmon Cole and you
Can go all the way down and fine Russell Henley they’re at 9600 what is going on here DraftKings has just giving us all this money I think I I am of the opinion that DK is seeing it kind of the similar to how we are that there’s um thanks Dee um
There I think they’re seeing it similar to how we are there’s a lot of like well-balanced guys right in the middle that all have the potential to go off here and fit the course like fit the course well so I don’t know that I necessarily think anything is necessarily mispriced as a
Matter of fact if you if you look at Oar even 105 actually seems pretty reasonable for for the caliber that he is um so I don’t I don’t know I mean from from that 105 all the way down to like I mean it’s even into this low
Sevens man there’s just value across the board here and there’s a lot of guys that fit what we’re looking for so you love to see it I don’t know if that answers your question but I mean that’s definitely what I’m seeing there’s a lot of I think
It’s hard to price it it is but I think it’s one of the easier slates we’re going to have building a lineup which is nice uh I think the Fades are easy Cory Connor is a full fade for me will alores unfortunately haven’t seen him play well
Since he came back from back surgery played awful in his first appearance back uh let’s give him some time he’s got lots of talent uh I want to see something from will coming back from the back surgery before we start putting money on him uh even in DFS 9300 easy
Fade JT posted 9100 great play hideki’s had great success here 9k a little chalky for my liking but still a good play uh Ben on for me easy fade cim 8600 mispriced even though you disagree I don’t know if I necessarily think that he’s I disagree in DFS I think I think
There’s some sewo like it’s like I said I could see sewo doing really well I could see SEIU trunk slamming I mean I’m very very split like and that’s the problem with sewo I don’t care how good a form he was in last year is he has
That volatility he very easily can miss a cut for you he could very easily go out and win the tournament he’s pretty streaky pretty streaky the gambler’s best friend uh Harris English lots of P lot of past success here big fan of Harris English especially in DK he’s
Somebody when he gets hot he scores a lot of points um good success here I think that’s a great play um yab bombs nah I got some interest in yab bombs not a ton a lineup here or there um he’s not as good of a play as Adam hadwin here like Adam
Hadwin is a glaring green flag I mean he scores a ton of d K points what are you doing with Alexander noren right there because I’m gonna guess he rid it out okay for you too he did but he’s a stat guy he’s never a finished guy every
Time you run a stat model on a course like this Alex norin goes right to the top like kham unfortunately when you play him out of course where he should do well he doesn’t Alex norin is an enigma for DFS players and betters alike uh he’s a really good golfer at if you
Look at Strokes gained everything but again it’s what have you done to make make us money Alex nor has made us no money over the years so no I don’t I don’t think so not in the price range he’s at where I’d rather have had one I’d rather have the toddfa I’d rather
Have I mean I’d rather have joerger I’d rather have Keegan I’d rather have Lucas Glover who knows like this is this is a course where noren should do well but he’s also pretty chalky because everybody’s stat model puts him right in the top 10 well
And the guy you hit on that I think I have a ton of interest in and I think he’s going to end up being pretty low owned is Lucas Glover number one over the last 36 rounds on approach um number 10 in this field for Fairway accuracy
And and quite frankly I mean I still think that I still think he’s one of the hottest players going right now I mean he had one hell of a run um and I think you know I think we’re going to see some down weeks from him but that approach
Game is nothing to nothing to laugh at um so I think 7700 on Lucas Clover seems like a pretty good deal uh I think so in this field and then JJ spawn right there at 7600 rated out six in the field for me uh he’s number three in accuracy um and
Opportunity gained he’s number 10 an overall approach so all right so trunk slamming wise you can trust JJ spawn but I like another guy who never misses Cuts who’s going to score more DraftKings points and that’s Justus Su man I thought you were gonna say Ben Griffin
No Ben Griffin doesn’t score any points he doesn’t miss Cuts either but he never gets the top 20s either Justin Su on a course like this he played well at Old Greenwood up in Tahoe as well uh NorCal guy shout out Justin Su for me is your
JJ spawn with more upside on DraftKings that’s that’s who I’m looking for is a guy who can make the cut avoid the trunk slam get your six out of six lineup or your five out of six lineup and get a little like five to 10 more DK points
Than JJ spawn in my opinion and a little kicker is that he’s a little bit cheaper even um I’m gonna be all over Justina at certain places I I’m not I’m not there this week to be honest I Ben it’s Ben Griffin and uh and Ben Griffin JJ spawn
And Lucas Clover for me in this range I’ll have some your 80 points and nothing more you I mean we’ll we’ll see what happens en enjoy I mean that may be all I need the way that I’m building this week though like did like that is I mean
There’s a lot to be said for lineup construction and you might have a point there so 80 80 points out of the last guy in and he might make the cut or will make the cut like that that’s pretty solid deal at 7,400 so when can we get some respect
For kurk kyama because he was outstanding last week uh I don’t know about the fit with this course at all but I mean we can tell he’s definitely a quality golfer that’s still top 30 in the world your boy man yeah he’s struggled he made a lot of birdies last
Week he had two rounds at 65 last week uh where his putting was good his approach game was so much better like that was the I was harping on last week with betting on him with top 10 and top 20s was uh his long iron approach game
Is so good that like he separates himself so as good I think with the approach distances we we see some appeal here especially since he’s long enough to take two iron off most of these T’s take that erratic off the tea Behavior out of play I I think that he can
Overcome bad putting with just good approach game that he has his around the green game is really solid too uh I just think he’s mispriced I mean we’re talking about a top 30 golfer in the world rankings at $7,300 what the hell’s going on yeah I mean I I’ll agree with you on
That for sure I I like I I’m thinking gpp like in a head-to-head I’m not gonna play him against you because I mean he could very well miss the cut but he could also very well win this thing because he’s that caliber of a player
Dude I hope one year at this cor as kyama is playing and we have like 30 mph hour winds and it’s rainy and shitty and he’s gonna just like dial it in like grind it out hey if those trade wins kick up on Thursday like they’re predicting we might see a first round
Leader from Kitty I’m I’m always pulling for it I can’t wait till we get to talk to him live one of these days I mean he’s gonna be on the show this year I’m gonna make it happen I uh no I’m ex I’m excited for him I think there’s so many things to
Like about his game I just right this second like yeah to your point good gpp play I I mean I’ll have them in maybe sub five% or rosters um and which is all you really need um to be over the field with him so
Yep um let’s see I got to call it out again just so people get the name it’s Rio hunni um definitely uh play down there at 7100 um what a what a deal what a deal that’s a stupid value stupid value sh sh you realize our influence is going to make him chalky
Right just highest rostered player on the whole slate God I hate you I hate when that happens too because it does happen um sh Kim C young Kim 7K flat lines up well here uh especially for the priz again we’re not talking about these guys being the Cornerstone of a uh a a
Crazy good lineup we’re talking about crazy values where you’re going to make some money on and you need you need a good points per dollar value guys that can miss make the cut more often than not uh he’s more volatile down there as a guy who’s either gonna do really well or
Completely fizzle out more of a gpp play for me uh how’s Bobby Mack look for you because I think that’s an appealing one 6,900 uh that seems a it seems a little weird that he’s down there yeah it does seem a little weird to me that he’s down
There I mean didn’t like really Spike for me or anything I no the my issue is in that range there just are a few guys that I like better um like yeah I’ll take Mark hubba hubard um seven flat I think that’s a I think he’s possibly a
Misprice in comparison to some of the other guys um you know I I really uh have some interest in um a little bit of Ben Kohl’s who’s had an excellent approach game excellent from the longer iron proximities has a very like consistent kind of average game uh kind
Of through the middle of all the stats that we ran so he’s not going to get you in a whole lot of trouble um and the other guy that I know you’re gonna roast me for but you can’t deny that we’re having win Resurgence Ryan Moore at
6700 he plays well here he plays well here he’s number five over the last 36 and approach he’s number and he’s a short hitter that likes short courses number six in Strokes game R4 scoring over the last 36 in and he’s not read in a single
Category I looked at I mean excellent so nobody’s gonna play Ryan Moore and you know you’re the guy that usually plays these uh these obscure guys from the DP World Tour and maybe the corn fairy tour uh I got one for you Jake knap KN andap is going to make some
Noise here this week we played Jake knap tayor last year on something I know but for for for whatever reason Jake knap just pops up for me at 6700 uh that’s going to be one of those deep shots I take along with uh your guy Camilo Vias who unbelievably is making a career
Resurgence and nobody’s talking about it he won a couple tournaments ago he made some noise last week because he made every single putt on Thursday first round leader Camilo Vias uh 6500 what the hell’s going on this guy’s red hot yeah it can’t fight you on anything
There I you did metion mention some DP World Tour you got any love for mattye Schmid or um pen or Maddy’s gonna be one I play at the AMX next week if if he’s in the field because Maddy’s a bomber Maddie loves to hit the ball your uh your boy
Uh uh Buckley’s down here are you going to roster Buckley or are we just betting Buckley this week oh no Buckley’s a perfect DFS play that guy’s streaky as all hell so yeah in a cash game Buckley probably not but as as a guy who could completely outplay his his price range yes
Definitely how is he this far down I don’t understand how he’s 150 to one and super cheap in DFS it doesn’t make any damn sense he’s uh 66 600 what the hell I mean so is Dylan woo honestly they’re the same same betting odds the same price on DFS they’re both too good
For that I think with Dylan and Brandon and I really do think that they’re interchangeable not the same guy not the same skill set but their performance this week this week they are interchangeable in that like they never they’re another younger kind of player that never comes out and puts it all
Together like if you got four solid rounds out of either of them they be competing like no doubt about it very very solid Golf and Buckley is definitely in that boat with his Friday uh his Friday W blues and every other day of the week he’s spectacular and I
Was just GNA say like you are famously quoted all last season for pointing out that what is he is almost 10 Strokes worse on Fridays it’s like seven seven strokes worse on Friday and he had the lowest scoring average on the tour on Thursday Saturday and Sunday better than
ROM better than sheffler better than Rory every he was better than everybody if you take away Friday that’s the craziest St ever it’s I need to know what the hell is going on Thursday night I say it every time but I need to know right keep him off the bottle and out of
The strip club and focus that dude needs just say stay in and order room service for God’s sake Aiden man yeah he’s bellying up next to John Daly at the local Hooters or some I don’t know what he’s doing but it’s Diet Coke Diet Coke and sigs all night long yes chain
Smoking packs of daily gambling and smokes and hoes seriously but it worked for John Big John can do it I don’t know if Hayden can he’s demonstrating he can’t but uh yeah I mean I in in all honesty we pretty much named the majority of the
Guys that I’m looking at in my player pool I’ve got about a 23 player uh player pool and that’s probably going to get Whitted down to 21 right now I do have aerg and Hatton in it but I think I’m just going to avoid paying up for
Him because I don’t think that they have more win Equity than the people below them so it makes it easier to build lineups without them honestly I just don’t see it with a oberg this week like and so 105 I’ll just I’ll say he’s chalky too it’s not
Leveraged at all you’re going to be you’re going to be playing with a bunch of other people yeah go down start your lineup at Cole I’m telling Brian Harmon Eric Cole Russell Henley it’s a good place to start and I’ll I’ll I’ll finish up with two long shots that will make
Make My Player pull barely Uh Kevin Yu 6,300 really good ball Striker G to keep doing that aren’t you until it comes to fruition hey man he’s he’s very live to miss the cut by a million he’s also really really talented so uh and him along with Pearson
Cy we saw him have success last year on courses like this this and he’s down there at 6,300 as well was he a Monday qualifier or was it his brother that Monday qualified uh I believe they both were yeah they’re both in the field uh but Pearson more talented than Parker uh
It’s it’s gonna be interesting to see which one of them does better here but Cy at least had Pierce and Cy had four top 10 in the last year so uh this is the guy who can get hot and play well and I don’t know if he’s in the same
He’s not in the same tier as the other guys in that class of rookies but he’s he’s got the ability to do that if he puts it together yeah I don’t hate that and and you you had some good success with him tail in the last year too so yeah top 20
Bets with Pearce and Cy were easy money last year all right let’s see what we got here you got anything else for me who’s your uh what’s your winning score first I think uh uh I think it’s in that 21 range I’m going to go with 19 just to be
A little different I think they continue to roll that rough out a little bit longer uh I think the trade wins are up earlier in the week which means that the cut Line’s going to be a little bit shorter you’re going to see some guys
Catch up the guys that do make the cut are going to make up ground on the weekend but I think that the having a a a higher scoring cut is going to make for a final score that’s a little bit under a little bit worse than 20 under
Par but yeah I’m still in the same wavelength as you this course is not that tough it’s just a unique little walk around the beach in Oahu it’s it’s beautiful uh and we’re going to see some I I’m guaranteeing we’re going to see a long shot winner like more than 30 to
One is going to win this tournament I disagree because my favorite of the week is going to be Eric Cole I think Eric Cole is my favorite out right B of the week pretty damn close so either way 22 or something like that that’s not bad yeah it’s it’s
Sliding so if anybody agrees with me and you got access to a book I’d go grab it before do it I love Eric Cole but I’m gonna say OA batia wins the saying it’s 60 to one crazy I know I’m a wild man stronger stomach than me I just love the guy I
Think he’s awesome and then I as far as first round leader I think I let’s go crazy man I think you’re right I think it’s Buckley I think that’s a wild one that’s going to be wild if we hit on that like 110 to one that’s that’s money right there 110
Like put five bucks on it who cares everybody’s got five bucks for a Starbucks dude he can fully do it like that’s not even like that’s not even like a crazy bet like he can absolutely do it this dude come come out here roll roll a 64 on Thursday and then come out
And shoot 77 on Friday we don’t give a hell give a damn at 110 to one payout on the first day of the tournament we’re sitting pretty we’re Victory lapping we’re doing all the alarms going off if that happens but I’m with you 100% on
That what do you say we do it again next week with the American Express in Palm Springs yeah I suppose I can see you then I hate that tournament but it’s uh it’ll be fun cuz everybody’s going to score well at that place cheers hey join us next week in between
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