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Rick Gehman and Greg DuCharme preview the Sony Open in Hawaii from a DFS perspective. It’s picks, strategy and fades for the first full field event of 2024.
Intro, Course Breakdown: 0:00
10K: 9:09
9K: 17:59
8K: 31:24
7K: 41:21
6K: 50:58
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ABOUT THE SHOW: The First Cut brings you everything you need to know in the world of professional golf. Nearly every day Rick Gehman, Kyle Porter, Mark Immelman, Greg DuCharme, Sia Nejad and Patrick McDonald bring you the best analysis in the game. From DFS to betting previews, interviews and recaps… everything golf is on the table when you listen to The First Cut.
Freaking first cut Golly welcome to the first cut podcast I’m Rick gon and this is your DFS preview for this week’s Sony Open joining me to break it all down Greg duch is here hello Greg hello Rick looking forward to the Sony this week it’s a it’s a really good field which is
Uh which is exciting cool golf course big difference from last week and we got some really good players here I think this is uh I’ll have to go look at the numbers and all that stuff but I think this might be the strongest feel the
Sony Open has ever had or at least for a long time yeah it’s um it’s surprisingly good I I think these guys having the opportunity to take some time off in the fall uh they’re they’re itching to go and what a better place I mean is there a better
Place to get started than Hawaii um so pretty cool I’m really looking forward to it yeah I’m looking forward to it as well and I know the fans are because they now have the power to individually cast their one and done selections which they did so beautifully last week last week over
700 different users you can still get involved there is a link in the description you’ll just start a little bit behind everybody else but if you’ve been in since last week make sure to get your uh picks in again and continue to roll out Greg we were just kind of
Talking about who the oneandone play of the week is we’ve kind of I don’t know I don’t know if we’ve I don’t know if we’ve hammered anything down no I don’t think we have I have an idea in mind but there’s one that I’m very curious about
Um it’s not the one we were talking about before the show it’s somebody else boy now but but I don’t know how much risk I don’t know how much star power I want to throw into this week you know that’s kind of where my head is but how many
Events do we have this season 39 um I thought it was 30 31 okay in the one because like you don’t do the opposite field events or whatever right I I thought the number was 31 so you don’t have to go crazy right you could go I mean who are the 31 best
Players you’re gonna get most you can get most of most of the 31 best players in so it’s not like we I mean we used to do it with the wrap around and that get that’s that can get crazy so I I think you have some flexibility I
Think you could take a chance I think you can go with one of the big names it’s still could be very worth it um but I think there are a couple of other kind of next tier down guys that could be really good plays okay well we will reveal our official oneandone
Selections on Tuesday’s Mega preview pod the submissions to run your pool are are not do until this tournament tees off on Thursday okay great you mentioned the differences uh between last week’s uh Plantation course and this week’s Wii Country Club so we are moving from Maui
To aahu this is played in Honolulu and Troy if you want to share my screen I’ve got the scorecard up here when you think of wly what comes to mind flat uh beautiful and it it’s not very long but I I think it can play pretty difficult at times there are plenty of
Tough holes you know one thing that happens at caloa you don’t really see guys in a lot of trouble there’s not a lot of spots that are oh boy that looks like it’s real trouble when you get here to wly it’s not like there’s it’s not like Florida where there’s trouble everywhere
Uh but there is you know the rough can be difficult to predict um being Bermuda rough it’s not that long about what three inches or so um which is pretty healthy for Bermuda and gives guys a challenge so you have much flatter greens they can get really firm and fast
Controlling your ball into these greens becomes a real test and of course just like last week you’re going to have to make some putts out here yeah you are gonna have to make some putts and I’m glad you mentioned you know on the surface three inches of of Bermuda grass
It doesn’t look that bad but it does cause kind of fits and then the stats back that up as you know missing the Fairway you can get into some trouble around here but it is only a par 70 70 7,44 yards and we have seen the shorter
Hitters find a way to have success it’s not the only path here Greg but a full field event at the beginning of the year where everybody’s kind of Lo I think it is more difficult to handicap this event than others which I think kind of goes back to the conversation you were having
About one and done saying hey you know I don’t know if I want to use like a a a big dog out of the gate right here because I think there is a lot of natural variance built into this event yes and again like you said everybody’s
Live so when we look through um rickun good.com or we’re trying to find the guys who are playing the best it’s hard to get a real idea of that and you know you don’t know what guys have been doing during the off season you don’t know how
Hard they’ve been working um I I heard Johnson Wagner talking about a a win that he had here before and he came to the Sony Open knowing he was going to win he had never been more prepared but he had a really focused off season he
Got in the gym he got himself in shape he played at kaaloa and he came to he came to Wy expecting to win and those are the kind of things that you can’t see on a stat sheet so yeah everybody’s live you can take and probably should if
You’re especially in a you know big tournament trying to take home a big gpp you probably got to take some chances on guys that maybe weren’t in good form in the fall uh hope that they found something for our purposes here I don’t really like analyzing on hopes um but
There may be some guys with good course histories there maybe guys that are good course fits who maybe we haven’t seen in a while who I think are still very live I I I follow the saying uh hope is not a strategy Greg so that that’s right
Right in my wheelhouse and as if there wasn’t anything else we could kind of uh pour into this bowl you get a lot of the new guys a lot of the kft grads who are now gonna have their PGA Tour card for the very first time guess where they’re
Making their debut right here at Wy so it’s just again I I said it before this is a very difficult one to figure out yeah and and those guys as you see when we go through our brackets they’re probably not going to be names we’ve circled because like you said hope is
Not a strategy I think that’s very well said uh and I will probably steal that from you um and if you’re lucky well for the first couple months I’ll credit you for it and then we’ll see what eventually it’ll become mine right that’s that’s how it works um
But once we get past the statute of limitations so these these new guys probably aren’t going to be on my list but like I said to take down there’s probably going to be one or two of them that pop up on near the top of this leaderboard and
They could be really valuable assets it’s just really hard to figure out which one it’s going to be so there’s not going to be many in in my uh in my the names that I give out today um but it doesn’t mean that they’re not worth
Taking a look at all right well we’ve got work to do because there’s a lot of players in this field and we got to start naming names we will do just that but first we are going to take a quick break and hear a word from our partners
Will you need your sports news anywhere we’ve got breaking news to bring you then get your sports anytime you want them big trade news overnight to discuss because we know you need Sports all the time lot of movement in the rankings this week a legend adds to their legacy
We’re bringing you that breaking news right here on HQ CBS Sports HQ anywhere any time all the time we are back this is my website rickun good.com if you are watching on YouTube if you’re listening that’s what I’m showing and this is the cheat sheet there are four golfers over
$10,000 lud Vi oberg at 10,500 Terell Hatton 10,3 Matt Fitzpatrick at 10,200 and Sith FAL fresh off of his runner-up finish last week on Maui rounds us out at an even $10,000 Greg let’s spend a lot of our money let’s do it at the top and I think
You do it right at the top because ludvig the best thing that happened for the sonod open DFS players is ludvig finishing t47 last week that’s exactly right it’s fantastic and if you saw that he shot 77 and it worries you be worried be terrified be terrified stay away but
I will not be staying away um I I said on Saturday I think it was Saturday that I yeah it was Saturday I gave him a complete pass Y and he went out and shot 64 uh on Sunday that’s right we’re not going to spread that to the masses but
He did shoot 64 on Sunday so I don’t think there’s anything broken in ludvig’s game H you look at these past results if you’re watching on YouTube you can see it on Rick’s page right now everything except for last week is top 25 finishes uh his off the te
Performance is dominant and could very well be the best on tour he hasn’t had enough time to prove that yet um but it has nothing to do with how he’s performed off the te it is a cheat code and here at wly that is extremely important accuracy is important um
Probably more important than distance but when you can hit it as long and as straight as ludvig I’m I Circle this name and I Circle it twice yeah so this will this will get nerdy for a second but I’ll make it quick the wly country club if you miss the Fairway it’s you
Lose about uh 0.18 Strokes every time you do that if you hit the ball farther than uh the driving distance average for that hole you pick up about 0.15 stroke so it behooves you to be very accurate it behooves you to be very long if you
Are long and accurate you are playing a different Golf Course than everybody else and it’s really no surprise that ludvig did not Flex his driving muscle last week Greg I mean Max hom just hit the longest drive in shotlink history you know JJ spawn is out there you know
Last you’re bopping 450 yard dve there’s a reason that he doesn’t get to flex his muscle because everybody gets the benefit off the te last week that is not going to be the case this week right and sometimes if you’re a shorter and you’re Landing a ball a little higher up on the
Hill you may get a little more moment you end up with more roll it becomes advantageous at times so there’s some things that get a little strange at Wii with driving it almost makes that uh Strokes gained off the T column and you could argue Strokes gain
Approach column near IR relevant at at at kaaloa but it’s very relevant here at w Li and I I expect ludig to come right back to form and um win yeah I I mean listen I’m I’m I’m with you buddy so uh $10,500 for ludvig then the pair of Englishmen in the
Middle and and sah down at the bottom I probably go ludvig Fitzpatrick Hatton sah um you know I think I think sah really benefits from uh the setup last week off the te I do think he’s getting better Greg I think he’s getting more consistent I
Think the rest of his game is getting much sharper but the there’s not going to be a lot of courses this is not going to be one of them where you can spray it without regard for accuracy and get away with it like he did last week I I still
I probably put sah above Hatton but I agree that Fitzpatrick’s in the second spot I just think siah has gotten so much more consistent and and the notion that we have about him spraying it off the tea is still there but I’m totally with you
It’s gotten a lot better uh and and he’s one of the best Putters on the PGA tour uh he is a very good putter can get very hot and and that’s a big benefit here at at the Sony so I I still think sahi is playable I I don’t generally like
Playing guys coming off a really emotional the week prior I it’s just something it happens they perform well I generally back off after a really really high performance week like he had last week that’s just my personal preference siah has played this event once it was
Two years ago he finished t48 he lost eight and a half Strokes ball striking he gained eight in the short game categories I think he is a much different player than he was two years ago I don’t even if that was flipped I don’t think I would have really cared I
He is one of the few that um I really try to live in the moment with because because I think he’s getting I think he’s improving constantly I do too um now I’ve been wrong on him a lot but he’s getting easier to be right on because he’s getting a lot more
Consistent yeah um so I I think he’s worth a play where Hatton on the other hand talked about his not him not feeling very good with his long game and you could see because he was able to perform well uh that it didn’t really separate what happened in the long game
The golf course and he made a lot of putts so that’s why one of the reasons why he was able to get himself up into the mix so I’m less faithful with Hatton uh but Fitzpatrick we both have him in the two spot he may be an interesting guy this week if you’re
Going to Pivot off of ludvig if if everybody follows Our advice and ignores ludvig 77 and plays him I think Fitzpatrick could be a really good pivot I love that he he has just continued to play once or twice every month all year long he’s continued to play well he is
Uh much better off the te now than he’s ever been he’s one of he’s a scorching hot putter the short game is there I I I do want to throw this out to you Greg because the 10K range sah finished t48 two years ago Fitzpatrick has never
Played here Hatton has never played here ludvig has never played here is there a care about that is there a a Nuance that experience would be able to uncover about Wy I think they these players are ready to figure it out um now the interesting thing is there are some guys in this
Field who have extremely long records here they play here every year some guys have 10 11 12 starts Stuart sink it’s like a full season of PGA Tour events here you know through his career so it’s it it is interesting I don’t think any of these guys are
Automatic um as much as I like ludvig and and I think there’s a very real possibility of um of skipping this range being a a good strategy but I don’t think it’s because of the course history I just I don’t think you have locks at the top nine golfers in this field have
Played at least 40 rounds dating back to 2008 so I mean 40 rounds um that’s 10 10 I mean it could be probably 11 you probably missed a cut if you’ve missed a cut or two so it’s it’s a lot Stuart sink has Stuart sink and Zack Johnson have six
Rounds at wly under their belt steuart zc has not missed a year here well they missed 2020 uh and 2011 and 2008 and that’s basically it right yeah so he comes here he likes it yeah he likes likes to get come here often yeah every year every single year
Likes to get his uh Hawaiian swing done in January uh the the 9k range really interesting here so Brian Harmon Corey Connor Eric Cole Russell Henley and Chris Kirk sit in the middle the return of will zator is 9,300 I’m not counting the hero JT Poston 91 and Hadi Matsuyama
9,000 we do have guys who have played recently we do have guys that have played here before we’ve got last week’s winner we’ve got a rookie of the year we’ve got a guy who can’t putt except for when he comes to L we got a lot here
Greg we got a lot um and you just mentioned with a little tease guy who can’t putt who except when he comes here so let’s start there okay there are three guys in this Ranch I really like there probably should be four but I’ll stick with three for now Cory Connor is
One of them you look at the record here it’s pretty simple after his first year every start has been a top 12 he’s a guy who can’t putt he’s gain Strokes put in here every time except last year still finished D12 exactly and you talk about
Someone who Stripes it off the te and and has an ability to um or this golf course provides an advantage in that that is Corey Connor what what do you have for his driving accuracy here uh 70 so it’s it’s weird he’s actually 78th in driving accuracy but when he misses it
Is by a very small amount um right he’s one of the better guys from distance distance from edge of Fairway he does not spray it and he’s longer than I he’s 45th on tour which in this field he’s probably gosh he’s probably like 18 right so that that’s kind of your
Double Advantage he has the ability to hit it long and straight uh and and is clearly comfortable on this golf course I think that’s one of the big reasons why um I don’t like what he’s done recently on the greens to be honest that’s pretty bad
Gained off the te in 17 straight starts yeah yeah he lost a lot Auto cutting in his last four but I think you could start your lineup with Cory Connors if you wanted to fade ludvig I’m I’m just as comfortable with Corey Connors as I am with Matt
Fitzpatrick here you know I I I don’t think there’s a huge separation between those two I like Fitzpatrick more but not by much so I I I think there’s a very real possibility uh and a very live play to start your lineup with Corey Connors I I
Also Rick I I think Brian Haron is yeah okay play too I was just gonna ask you why Brian Haron hasn’t been better here so yeah he’s got 12 starts it’s a lot his last four are like 32nd 48th 56 32 miscut then it was better before that
He went fourth 20th 13th 13th so there it’s not like he’s never played well here and I could make the case Greg he’s playing the best golf he’s ever played right now that’s really the thing so again you look at that record and it’s kind
Of I don’t think it’s bad enough to be of concern it’s not good enough to say um that you have to play him here like Cory Connor you could play here based on his record Brian Haron I don’t think you can play and I don’t think you
Can sit based on his record but you mentioned it he is playing the the best golf of his life it’s continued since the Open Championship like we didn’t see this regression T5 at the BMW Championship uh then you see a T8 at the Hero World Challenge where he played
Great and T5 last week at the senty I mean that that’s some really good stuff the other thing is it it was not out of the blue at the Open Championship he went run up ninth 12th leading into that so it’s it’s a pretty big stretch of of
Of Great Golf being played by Brian Harvey the other thing that I like how did he dismantle Royal Liverpool well he just hit every single Fairway and we know playing out of the fair it’s not gonna be the longest guy in the world but playing out of every Fairway is a
Statistical edge around here and if you consider putting to be a statistical Edge every event since the PGA Championship with the exception of one right he’s gained Strokes putting and significantly oh my God yeah he fills it up absolutely fills it up it’s awesome and he did it again
Last week so could you start with Brian Harmon and Cory Connors would you feel comfortable with that I mean they’re hate it I don’t hate it either the most interesting man is Will zorus in my opinion $9,300 long-term form long term I’m talking 100 rounds he’s the best player
In this field yes he’s like the fifth best player in the world over the last 100 rounds now that is when healthy which remember he missed nine months into of of 2023 with the back injury that he ended up getting uh surgery on he did play the
Hero World Challenge and it was very very ugly he gave up 20 Strokes to the field he finished dead last he lost across the board I’m willing to be early on will Al tourus because I know the ceiling is the best player in this field
But I’m not sure how long I’m gonna have to click his name to go from early to on time so you mentioned uh it was at Master he withdrew from Masters right he withdrew from okay yes he completed the match play and then uh he withdrew from
The Masters is what I is what I think I remember so um the century Tournament of Champions last year was his first event back after a surgery so he won in Memphis had surgery on his back came back for the uh we’ll call it q1 of last year and then missed
Another nine months so I mean those are some really concerning things to me um what we saw at the hero was ugly I’m willing to be early him too but I I think this is too early too early okay fair yeah I’m watching intently I think he’s the most right up there with
The most interesting players in this field I I AG I think he I think he like is the most interesting yeah yeah possibly ludic I mean this may be a star is born part two um but will zorus is is a factor and getting off to a good start
This week could put him in position to be a factor in Majors like we’ve expected um but I have my I have my doubts like like the past 100 round stuff this this could be a completely different player it’s like looking at sah yes from two years ago here at the
Sony different guy he also I think was I mean the the the actual thing that is most concerning is he talked about how he had to change his swing and stuff right to help avoid further injury which I just hate yeah you don’t like it that kind of
Thing takes time I do believe the ability of someone to control the golf ball uh the hands to hit it solid is something you’re not going to lose but it’s taken Tiger Woods a year and a half plus to rebuild his swing and find success with it um to think that will
Zuris will get it while recovering from an injury right away I I consider to be far-fetched uh just to put a bow on that he withdrew from the Masters prior to his Thursday tea time so just a few minutes before his Thursday te so he did not tea off at
The Masters and then of course missed that that nine month stretch before coming back at the Hero World Challenge okay there’s still a lot here we’ve got the Rookie of the Year who refuses to finish outside the top 14 we’ve got last week’s winner who’s got a phenomenal record around Wii uh
Hadi’s here who won this event two years ago Poston I mean what what else can we do Poston is the other guy that I really like um I really like what I’m seeing out of JT posting you see what happened since the Open Championship last year
Was tied second at the 3M open yeah he was in the mix on the 18th hole tied seventh the next week at the wi tied 24th at the FedEx srew tied 22nd at the BMW champion ship tied third at the Shriners tied 44th at the RSM and then
He comes back with a nice T5 at the centry and he’s done it in two really important ways uh approach play and putting the putting has been outstanding I’d like him to be a little more accurate um if he was a better driver of the golf ball he’d probably be the one
And done play he’s not so I don’t think he’s the one and done play but I do think he makes it into many of my lineups yeah I think that if you just took this stat profile cut out you know the names and the finishing positions
And gave people like hey who who is this I think I do not think JT poston’s name would come up a lot this this is probably a lot better of a stat profile than most people would think for for JT yes and I think that the results have
Been a lot better than most people would think for JT Poston yeah no it’s been been phenomenal it’s been great so I’m I’m really excited about that um it was actually really good before the open too the John Deere and the Scottish so we’re going back to July some really good play
I know I’m skipping over Eric Cole and Russell Henley and Chris Kirk I mean you could play those guys um but you can’t play them all Greg you can’t play them all that’s the hard thing so I picked I pulled three guys out of this Ranch I think it’s Harmon
And Connors and JT Poston is is my next guy I think it’s Harmon I think I um I think I think Cole is kind of in a tough spot because he’s you know he’s pretty inaccurate I don’t know we’ll see he’s proven he’s proven to kind of be a
Little immune to a lot of things recently um and I’ll be interesting I’ll be interested to see what people do with Russell Henley that that I think will you know if we get to Wednesday and we see like a very low projected ownership number I could probably get to I could
Probably get to Russell but it’s a it’s a great range if you want to pile up here and get a lot of golfers you can’t get them all but you can kind of build you know a handful of lineups and get access to a lot of them yeah I I agree with that
Um but it’s tough because it’s a really good it’s a really good section it’s going to hurt to leave off I mean it just hurts to not play Eric Cole it hurts not to play Chris Kirk if he plays well again you feel like well duh I
Fortunately have a rule where I don’t play the winner from last week how does that how has that gone for you well you know more often than not it’s the right play I will say and for like 20 years it was Flawless and then
In the last like two a ton of guys have gone either back to back or win runner up like it’s just it’s CRA as soon as I made it public when cilo Vias won and then or no he went runner up win I was like oh man yeah
I always try to I always avoid that stuff you just don’t see a ton of it um but I guess you’re seeing more of it and Chris Kirk was automatic last week he was flawless I thought his Sunday round was almost Flawless what like what do you credit he
Left a couple of putts short yeah and um I thought on oh maybe what the W 12 the wed shot yeah yeah that was a weak wed shot like 29 feet other than that it was it was Flawless and then when he got to 18 he
Just played 18 to make par and it was like it’s over which is such an easy hole when you’re playing and just make par right okay that’s an easy five because you have you can hit it so far right of the trouble the only place you
Can’t make five from you could just hit it away from that yeah so it was it was flawless he did his work by 17 yeah he did um we’re going to continue this conversation we’ll go eights sevens sixes get you a little bit of value but first we’re
Going to take a quick break and hear a word from our partners wake up to football highlights and news from around the world with the one and only morning footy team rise and shine football fans welcome to morning footy start your all day football craze with morning footing part of the all new
Galazo network all right gregers we’re back and we’ve got the 8K range here and it starts at $8,700 with Benny on seuk Kim Cam Davis the middle is your Denny McCarthy and Harris English and then we rounded out with Justin Rose Stephen Jagger Adam hadwin Keegan Bradley so
Still a fairly small list of names guys that kind of in some cases struggled last week we don’t know the full extent of status some of these guys game so what do you want to do here in the eights I got a couple guys I really like
Here um one is Ben on okay um now the putter change I just love I love a guy that’s on team NOA going into the long putter do do you think that the do you think I know it’s not it’s obviously not cheating he’s not he’s not anchoring that to his
Chest but it’s the same concept it’s basically like a loophole right they found a loophole in the system Bernard longer same thing right he gets even closer but like it’s the same concept and a half a half an inch is the only thing that makes it
Legal um this kind of goes down a a rabbit hole for me I don’t I I am not in favor of banning things from the game of gol no me neither I I actually do agree with that I just I I I look at the anchor band and it it to me
Targeted like three guys well we’re just going to this is a harsh word but we’re just gonna ruin your career yeah and it’s also like because because we’re smarter than you well we figured because we don’t like the way this looks yeah yeah but it doesn’t change the way it
Looks because there are loopholes like this right so I I don’t mean to bash the governing bodies I just I think it it’s a needless Rule and if you want to putt with a putter that’s anchored to your chest there are a lot of things the way
That I teach putting it I think you miss out on some real benefits you know the the concept that that I putt with and teach with is a little bit different than that that would favor more of an arm lock kind of method so it’s not like
It’s it’s not cheating it just it it really works for guys um and benon is in this camp where he is an excellent driver of the golf ball excellent uh and I was a little surprised to see his approach play I think he’s a better I think he he can be a better
Iron player than than this column shows right now on which is kind of hit or miss you know um there definitely been some events where he’s losing Strokes approaching the green um but but having this new putter as a weapon I think really benefits him and makes him a really strong play this
Week also one start here T12 by the way that’s exactly what I was gonna say one start here T12 so $8,700 Benny on Cam Davis oh mama uh was miserable last week he finished 52nd which snapped a really good stretch of golf for him in the fall maybe it was
Knocking rustoff he’s got four straight Starts Here 32nd or better in every single one won how much of like the first start stuff from last week do we care about now he played a little bit he played he played the Australian Open but he lost 10 Strokes from T green last
Week ah kill it’s killing me because my plan coming into the year was this is Cam Sony Open is Cam Davis all the way and last week was just bad enough where it’s making me second guess I’m a big fan of writing things off when somebody’s shown this
Much rust but shown this much success I mean and then they come in after a little time off and have a a rusty start I just I I worry about this one a little bit Rick I I don’t think I’m gonna go the Cam Davis route I’m with you too I’m
Not nearly as excited about this 8K range as I was the 9k range so I guess that’s how it works I think I think Danny McCarthy plays well well enough and putts well enough to make a little bit of noise and I think Keegan Bradley um drives it well enough and has
Historically had a couple of decent finishes around here to get me excited but I’m I’m not particularly interested in much of this all right I got a couple guys I’m excited about that you didn’t mention one is Harris English yeah I’m very excited about Harris English I think he’s
Healthy which is a big deal and he’s puted very well here at Wy as well another one of these guys with a lot of rounds here and well he’s played what is this 10 time 10 times Rick 11 11 11 times he’s L Strokes put
In twice on this golf course he’s got a tied third a tied fourth I I have a sense that um that Harris English is going to have a really good week he’s struggled off the te here uh but he’s been driving it well the last couple of starts he’s had at the
End of last season and now at the beginning of this season I know why I know W is totally different than caloa but um but I I think Harris English could be right near the top of the leaderboard this week I am interested to see I I agree when healthy Harris English has
Always been a very well-rounded solid golfer and he’s got a couple of spots on tour which he’s had a lot of great success that so I I agree he’s another guy you know a couple rungs below will zat Torres but I I’ll be keeping my eye
On because I think it’ll tell a larger story about what might come in 2024 um here’s another guy okay the price is finally The Price is Right here it’s Stephen Jagger Stephen Jer has been so steady he’s just been all fall he was just he price too high yeah he’s like $10,000 10
Yeah it’s like the third highest priced guy in the field like okay because part of the concern if you watch the show back then you know we talked about this a lot Rick yeah he’s really good across the board but it’s not leading to enough right you know there’s not like one
Lever that needs to get pulled and all of a sudden he’s gonna win um so I I think Stephen dieger is a really safe play and I think at 8100 he can be a a kind of anchor spot in your lineup depending on construction and you can
Get a little aggressive get a little wonky outside of that but he could be a really really safe play I’m glad you mentioned that because I forgot that he was you know three straight starts over $110,000 in the fall much more much more reasonable now he hasn’t missed a cut
Since April uh right and and there’s listen there’s plenty of t9s to t20s which doesn’t help you when he’s 10,200 when he’s 88100 that’s a different story obviously so that that’s interesting yep so I’m I’m kind of excited about that um I want to get your thoughts I I think I know
Where you’re going with this but Justin Rose last week I mean this it looks really bad the stats looked really bad but he got some bad luck there were some bad breaks he shot 61 on Sunday he sh 12 he shot 12 under par on Sunday that out that erases some of
Those big bold red numbers that you see from from the centry is it for you I am at least slightly more bullish than bearish on Justin Rose just because I think he had a really good 2023 that was much better statistic ically than 2022 was you know he he used to be very
Reliant on the short game not anymore this turbulence that he has seen just in the last couple of starts I think is is pretty easy to write off to a lot of different things and if I’m going to be excited about a couple of final rounds
Or a couple of weekend plays from the century for other guys I have to at least acknowledge them here for Justin Rose so all that being said I’m I’m like a 5.7 out of 10 I think I’m a little higher than that and here’s the other thing this course history is um
Stretched over a very long period of time but it’s darn good he missed the cut in 2006 um but other than that everything’s been a top 20 including a second the last time he was here in 2017 tied 13th in 2011 tied 12th in 2010
And his first start here was a tied 20th so that’s a really solid record um coming off a 61 I I think he likes the place I’m uh I’m excited about Justin Rose too let’s continue this conversation down into the seven cave range the top couple of familiar names
Alex noron Brandon Todd OA Patia the middle includes Keith Mitchell Ben Griffin Aaron Ry the bottom of the 7K Range Austin eot Ben Kohl’s Davis Thompson among others okay we are getting into Savvy vets plus newcomers range Greg the known entities very known entities versus the very
Unknown entities so where do you want to start uh I I am not as excited about this range as I was about any of the other ranges and that’s to that’s predictable there may be some gaps here but now I think we got to start taking some
Chances taking some leaps of Faith so I want to start off I I just feel like a little respect is due to AA batia okay um I don’t love this in fact when I was making my notes beforehand I didn’t did not write his name down in the 7K guys
That I like and I’m just wondering if I’m disrespecting a tropical Superstar again because he had what because he had one terrible round on Sunday Sunday the Sunday collapse I mean long putter in play same situation has been on it just he was in the final group and it didn’t work out
He has of of his nine top 10 in corn fairy tour or PGA Tour six of them are at Tropical venues it’s also it’s also a stretch where he’s made seven straight cuts he has one two three four top 21 finishes in his last five starts if he would have had that round
That he had on Sunday on Thursday and then played we’d be very excited about it I I think so too so he’s he’s worth a look and and 7,800 is a really good price in my opinion so I don’t want to disrespect him but let’s get to my list
Rick uh and how about Luke list again okay I actually wanted to see what Luke list did with the putter last week and he did it again yeah yeah this is this is going to be borderline like borderline breakout year stuff if he can do this yeah especially
At the beginning of the year where you know he’s going to go to to he’s going to go back to Tory where he’s won and if you hit it like he hits it and you do anything remotely close to zero with the putter he’s been much better than that
This is it’s a very very good profile he has played here six times he’s missed five cuts yeah baby he has a t13 uh back in 2017 and that’s the only time he gained Strokes putting so I I don’t think it’s a golf course he
Doesn’t like I think LC list has been a terrible Putter and has figured something out so I’m I’m willing to go in on that now maybe three guys are all in the same thing bet on going to a long putter OE going to a long putter Lucas figuring
Something out with the putting maybe that’s too much to go on that theme but I in general I’m very positive on guys who make changes with their putter uh and and it and it works I think it gives you a huge boost of confidence yeah and I’ve been I’ve been doing like some
Season long drafts and I’ve been drafting a lot of like late round luk list because I think oh yeah I think it’s like because if this is real if this is real he’s gonna make a ton of noise if it’s not I can just cut him like who cares right right anybody then
It doesn’t matter yeah you won’t be able to cut him this week but he’s 76 00 you know that I and I think that’s worth the I think that’s really worth the price you look around this range as well um we mentioned OE I I like luk list more than
I like Matt coocher I like luk list more than Adam senson I don’t know what to do with Lucas Glover because I kind of like Lucas Glover too um but I’m not sure the I’m not sure the um putting has stuck he may have gotten rid
Of The Yips which is great but I still think we have an issue on the greens I think we have I think we have a huge issue I mean he made a I mean he made a career in eight rounds and he had he has had four good
Putting putting weeks in like his last 20 weeks and those four he got everything out of right he got a sixth a fifth and two wins and now I mean he coughed up six Strokes putting last week yeah that’s unfortunately vintage Lucas Glover right right and he’s played well here he’s puted okay
Here but I’m a little worried about it all right so I think you’ve convinced me I’m gonna stay away from him all right I got I got two more names for you that I’m pretty excited about okay uh Keith Mitchell oh okay okay now there’s nothing this is one of those those guys
You look at this page and you’re not going to see anything very exciting right I I don’t think last year was a particularly exciting year for Keith Mitchell um but I I don’t think it was egregiously bad in any regards I don’t think we have an area of deep
Concern and we haven’t seen him since the RSM so we’re coming off a long off season his fingerprint as a player is a great driver of the golf ball which I think fits here he will have an advantage here and then you look at his course history here and it’s really good
Um he has two miscuts and everything else the four other starts are top 25 finishes and I I like that profile I think this is a golf course that suits his advantages uh and and if he can make a couple of putts he could content yeah no I listen um I I agree
With I agree with most of that like long-term DNA this should be a pretty good spot for Keith Mitchell and and maybe this is for the guys that didn’t play kaaloa and maybe even those guys too maybe that’s the way to look at the start of this season uh long-term DNA
More so than recent form or what they did in the fall for instance because there’s kind of a reset so I think cashmir Keith could come off hot did you have one more Aaron Ry okay Aaron Ry yeah yeah played on the DP World Tour a couple times in the fall quite
Well I also think of Aaron Ry is a pretty good accurate driver of the ball kind of solid uh solid ball Striker not a great record here very accurate incredibly accurate very accurate which catches my attention hasn’t figured out the greens here maybe third times a charm yeah
Maybe uh but a Mis cut in a t61 here those would be the concerns it’s why I prefer Keith Mitchell over Aaron Ry and they’re the same price but I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw Ry in the mix played a lot in the fall played three times in
September three times in October once in November so we haven’t seen him since the nedbank golf challenge that was the second of back-to-back top 10 finishes and third straight top 25 finishes is ball striking is great very accurate just needs to gain like a stroke with the putter yeah quarter shot around
That’s all that’s all um we mentioned a lot of the guys that I like I will also just point out kind of these they’re not necessarily debuts but now with their full tour card Adrien Dumont de chass addc catching a lot of love from those
Who follow on the uh corn fairy tour and I also Greg and you know these these late round Flyers I’m taking in in in season long fantasy golf get a lot of Davis Thompson you know very highly regarded Amer who I I now believe is starting to figure it out a little bit
And the ball striking numbers are coming together he’s made six straight cuts couple of you know top 30s in there as well I like to see the way he’s hitting it so he’s somebody that I’ve also been uh pretty bullish on as as we head into
2024 I like that as a late round draft in season long yeah I looked at him for this week and was perplexed um not that’s not the right word I was interested curious wow that’s pretty good it’s a pretty good stat profile for a guy at 7,000 flat yeah uh so I like
That um he didn’t make my list but it’s probably just because there’s so many guys in the 7K range like you said we can’t play them all can’t play them all there’s a ton of guys in the 7K range then here’s the 6K range so it’s KH Lee Michael Kim Robert McIntyre amongst
Others at 6,900 the middle of the range Camilo Vegas who went from first round leader or I don’t know if he was first- round leader he wasn’t sahith was but he was up there after the first round to 50th last week uh will Gordon Nate Lashley in the middle and then the Min
Price includes David lingor Tyson Alexander Ryan brm what do you see out of the 6K range that might be worth snagging I I think there’s a couple guys to look at here uh one another really impressive profile um at 6,900 is Vince Wy um this this guy looks he has looked
Really good off the tea since the AT&T Byron Nelson uh in um in May he’s played some really good golf since then uh coming off at T8 in Bermuda t13 at the RSM he’s putted really well as well I think you’re kind of seeing uh complete
Play out of him and he’s played the Sony Open twice he has a miscut and a t17 so I’m curious about Vince wayy 6,900 I I think we can get better value though so we why not go to oh no that’s yeah the next guy for me Rick was down a
Little bit to 65 500 and I have been wrong on him before I liked him very much when he was a rookie on the PGA tour I I think you got it Matthew neith Matthew neith yeah yeah I’m curious about this um T15 at the Zozo T28 at the
RSM seems to be hitting it a little better seems to be putting it a little better seems to be putting it a lot better which is fantastic now we got a reset coming so I don’t know what we’re going to get but I like the value at at 6,500 it’s so annoying I’m
Sure it’s even more annoying for him because when he is playing well he was I mean he was literally a top 25 ball Striker for a for a period statistically yeah um and then he had that run was it in like the yeah it was here it was last
Fall where he was like on the verge of winning got the the season ended and he like it took him six months to find it in 2023 then the season ends again right yeah yeah very frustrating so annoying he’s probably winning a ton of cash at
Home right that’s true yeah he’s win a ton of money games yeah single single round money games so I I like I like NE Smith um I I think it’s worth it at at 6,500 I also I think Nate Lashley is in a very similar position at 6,500 as well yeah
There’s a there’s a couple of interesting I mean you get Alejandro toti who’s played like two PGA Tour events but kind of crushed cor fery last year Dylan woo was statistically one of the most improved golfers from 2022 to 2023 so keep an eye on if that
Trajectory can continue um down here I’m just happy to take like flyer city right I mean if it’s the new guys that’s fine if it’s if it’s putting Specialists like Harry Hall who finished 28th here last year fine th this was already a hard week to figure out this is the hardest section
Of the hardest week what about uh what about Kevin you you had a stat he was in your uh you’re right up for the golf course this week yeah so he is um so I was looking at kind of just ways that um guys separate themselves and there’s
There’s two kind of main ways to separate yourselves on the second shot and in either you have you know most approach most approach shots or birdie approach shots go to like 22 feet so it’s like how often you know how how often are you hitting it inside of that
And Kevin U just stuffs everything he’s just stuffs stuff stuff stuff stuffs and doesn’t make any of those putts unfortunately right look at that I mean it is so bad it’s it’s horrible uh if if it was only like a if it was a par three closest to the pin competition Kevin you
Would be the best player of the world um would you be out on him are you out on him because of the pl in I think you have to be right I mean like yeah it’s so bad and if you if you don’t get if you get a normal week from him
He’s missing the cut like a normal week is not even like T30 it’s just it’s total ejection yeah yeah we we got to get a like John Deere classic where you gain eight eight Strokes put in out of nowhere right I don’t like rolling the dice on that um
But I thought it was interesting because I got down to 6300 and his name popped up and I I read him in your article I I think there’s another guy at 6300 though who is not really a flyer I think he’s very playable I’m kind of surprised his
Price is this low you’re familiar with him he’s warm and comfy it’s Joel Damon right Joel Damon has a pretty good record here tied 12th and 2020 tied 22nd in 2019 um he’s start has four starts here also a miscut in 2022 and a tied 73rd in
2018 but he had a tied seventh at the Shriners tied 13th at the Sanderson put together some pretty good golf he he needed he needed to change his fall was much better yes his summer coming down the stretch was was was pretty horrible he was he was losing it everywhere which is
Pretty shock I mean he’s a accurate better player than that yeah yeah and you can start to see that with the 13th and the t7 in the fall so okay that’s actually I don’t mind that one single bit good record here getting back to what you would expect from him that’s
That’s very fair yes at 6,300 I mean we’re gonna look in the 7ks were Taking Chances right this gives you a really good opportunity to hammer home on the Brian harmans and the Corey Connors and the those 9k guys where we said hey you just can’t get all of them it really
Helps if you can put a Joel Damon in there at 6,300 yeah I um I like that I’m gonna have to remember that when I start generating these lineups because that’s pretty darn good gives you a lot of salary cap relief right and there’s a reason for it which we like yeah but
It’s also not like I mean some of these guys guys if I say a name they’re going to win but like like Kevin Yu is just an absolute punt I don’t even I don’t even know what you’re expecting to you know what I mean it’s just Joel Damon is at
Least I’ll be able to keep my lunch down if I roster Joel DAV right right I I completely agree I think you could be excited about it quite frankly MAV mcne is back I saw him the other day he said he was uh completely healthy he’s he’s happy that he’s going
Full Tilt again where where his words not mine U that’s good yeah he he he’s also on a he’s on a major medical extension so it’ll be interesting to see he miss Gary Woodland back Woodland’s back yeah so those are guys that maybe they’re not you know playable this week
But these are you know tracking the es and flows we do this every single week right so so when we do this next Monday for the American Express we’re we’re going to look back and see what mad mcney did this week and it’ll be it’ll be part of the part
Of the story so there’s the some of the guys I’m keeping an eye on as well yeah I think G I think Gary Woodland I I forgot to mention him it’s so cool that he’s back yeah and I was looking at some of his where what was his price I saw
Him in the $7,000 yeah I think that’s right uh yeah 7100 and you just click on this profile it’s just dominant ball striking oh yeah oh yeah I was um I I was doing um I was doing last 100 rounds because I was I was doing something for I was writing something up
On will zator so it was like um you know last 100 rounds ball Strikers and it was you know Scotty and Patrick Klay and Colin and then it was I think it was Will zator and Gary Woodland we’re like five and six yeah crazy it’s so good and then this unfortunate situation happens
I’m I’m just so glad he’s back and playing um I’m too worried to to play him in DraftKings but I’ll be watching closely yeah there’s there’s a lot of those guys that are I’ll put them on my whiteboard and I’ll keep an eye on them after each
Round and see see where they’re headed but yeah this is this is a fun one we’re gonna get a cut sweat Greg right we’re gonna get a Friday night cut sweat we are going to get a full field uh winner it’s gonna be a blast yeah I’m looking
Forward to it again it’s a it’s a good field there’s a good mix um and and the cut I love the cut the cut I love the cut the first Cut’s the best cut that is true the first cut remember they used to have mdfs and there was a second cut
Oh the worst whose idea was that I love not having mdfs God the MDF you ever see those posters like uh or picture little little pictures I love not camping yeah I love those things I this is I love not MDF very cool all right well listen we
Will be back Tuesday Mega preview pod that storylines picks Best Bets one and done our oneand done selections will be revealed at that time you guys have until Thursday when this thing tees off and then we’ll be back Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday evening is for those in
The east on the East Coast because uh the boys are in Hawaii and that is how time zones work so for now uh big thanks to producer Troy does all the hard work behind the scenes Greg du available at the real gfd and you can find me at Rick
Run good this has been the first cut we’ll catch you next Time
