In this episode of the Golf Gambling Podcast on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, Steve Schirmer rides solo to preview the 2024 Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. Steve pulls up the Google Earth imagery to take you on a tour of Waialae Country Club and the types of holes each player will face. Then he previews what types of players and skillsets he favors for the 2024 Sony Open using the tools available on DataGolf.
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It is Steve Shermer here Ryan Soul it’s a little early in the morning I think for Boston CER he’s probably just rolling out of bed but um it’s me uh in a very snowy uh Rochester New York uh it’ll be nice then to break down a Hawaiian Golf Course and look at
Something actually is green and warm uh here but yeah today we’re going to break down the uh the Sony Open uh right now we have the century tourament Champions going on round three I’m probably not going to hit an outright uh I got can’t lay and post I for back but everybody’s
Going low today uh they probably need to get like a 62 or something in order to hit but a lot of my positionals are in play so I’ll be sweating that out along with some football uh so yeah um so I’m you know like last week it seemed like
That got a pretty good response I will be screen sharing both Google Earth and some data golf stuff I’ll walk you through uh what I’ll be looking for at this tournament you know uh this is you know it it it’s one we’ve seen a lot um you know it’s a very easyc scoring
Tournament uh when we get to some of the predictive skill sets though that’s a little challenging because data gol basically just nothing matters here but I’ll walk you through sort of what it’s trying to tell you and maybe what you should go for and we’ll go from there hopefully the internet connection holds
Up I was having a little bit of issues before this if not we might have to stop and I might have to restart you know maybe make my producer do a little bit of work but uh let’s go over the field for the Sony Open so this is the first
Of the I guess the non Signature Events uh if you don’t know how this works basically what is going to happen is between the signature events there is a like a little playin series it’s any regular events that you can you know accumulate your F Cup points for the
Entire year but you also uh there’s um you know whoever gets the most uh points or they’re in the top five of points accumulated uh during these next couple events they get into the next signature event I know that sounds complicated I fumble through that myself uh the this
Is what the PG tours decided that they’re going to do uh but what’s H basically what this is doing now is promoting guys who playing Signature Events who are already qualified because they’re in the top 50 they’re exempt for all of them they’re not going to show up
And you know I mean there’s some good names in this field and I’ll highlight a few of them but overall though you know this is GNA be a pretty weak event very top I think the odds board I shared it with um I think my producer actually
Shired on on X uh what I thought the top of the odds board was going to be um you know listen it’s gonna be really short odds there’s also a trend of guys who played the centry tournament champions the week before tends up winning because they don’t have as much course rust uh
With so many players ERS uh playing that event last week and showing up this week uh that that trend is probably going to continue again but uh I think the most interesting name at the Sony Open this week uh who will not be at the top of
The odds board is uh the return of will zalatoris uh obviously we saw him at the Hero World Challenge this is his first return to the PJ tour it did not go very well for zalot Horus at the hero he did Birdie his opening hole but after that
It was pretty bad it was mostly a lot of Co Russ I feel like around the green with the putter uh I think he also is using um it’s uh you know it’s not quite the anchor putter that’s anchored to your Chester it’s the uh you know I
Think he’s like grips it like this so um he didn’t look good though but he’s had a month that was just his first return back um it’s always nice to see will Al Horus uh you know back on the PJ tour it’s a fiery guy it’s a guy with
Personality people like uh the PJ T needs guys like that and if he’s going to be contending and doing very well that’s ultimately very good for the tour uh another guy of note uh here obviously he won’t be at the top of the oddsboard but Gary Woodland’s back this week very
Great he’s he’s coming back for this event uh if you didn’t know he had surgy to remove a brain tumor shortly before the Ryder Cup and I think the fact that not only is he still with us but he came back to the PJ tour this quickly uh I
Think that’s great uh you know and even if he’s not on your betting card or maybe he knocks one of your guys out for a positional at the end um roof for Gary Woodland this week uh that’s obviously a very scary illness to have he’s had a
Lot of challenges with his family and medical stuff in the past two fact he’s coming back top player uh it’ll be good to see him there but otherwise some of the other names are here ludvic is here uh I think he’s gonna be the tourament
Of favor probably a 10 to one 12 to one Hatton is gonna be here Fitzpatrick’s here hii is here H Eric Cole JT Poston Russell Henley those types of guys who typically play uh the Sony Open uh they will be here as well so before we start
Getting into the golf course want we take a quick commercial break and then I will start going over Google Earth walk you through the golf course walk you through the history of the course uh the brief history and um we’ll get to it all right so let’s start off by talking
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Underdog today uh for the century tournament champions they did adjust a lot of their lines they end up uh increasing their birdie rates and their um you know the the uh round scores I from what I saw from the weather forecast earlier it’s gonna be dead C conditions I would expect probably the
Average score is gonna be five under so pound the highers and the lowers on the round pound the highers on the birdies lowers on the round scores so watch along make your picks and maybe make a little cash over on arog mobile app or website arog fantasy.com and when you
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The internet there we go right there all right so uh let me zoom out just get a high level okay there you go so this is whilei uh this is uh located right outside of Honolulu uh this was a Seth rer design he built it I think before his death in
1926 and uh it’s a private Country Club there is the W the uh Kalo hotel right here and there’s the beach right there I think if you are staying at the hotel you might be able to get on but this is a private Country Club uh this I you
Know this is one you can really walk on like Sentry the Sentry there last week but uh listen this is you know tight tree line or well palm tree line uh classic design hasn’t had a whole lot of changes over the years um and this is a
Different type of golf than what you’re we saw last week at U uh the plantation course you know that one was very driver heavy you know the balls moving a whole lot once it hit the ground it’s a very flat Golf Course uh last week you had to
Kind of account for different yard gages with you know I mean you saw it you know at the Sentry this week where Max H went to the seventh hole um on like I think it was like 520 yards and he end up hitting the longest
Drive in history on the pg2 477 had like a flip wedge in so this isn’t that though the yardage that what you’re going to see at this place is the actual yardage uh you know just taking through a tour of the golf course so uh this is
Actually the back nine for the members uh this this is the the opening the flip the nines for the tournament uh the first hole it’s a long par 4 and Seth rer actually designed this kind of as a template of like the Road Hole and there’s some similarities to it that
I’ll walk you through so obviously with the Road Hole you got the hotel there and the road and you got a whole lot of room over on the left this is at St Andrews by the way similar concept here you have a whole lot of room where I’m
Circling over here to kind of B up but you don’t have a great angle to the reen you got car with this bunker I think this green slopes pretty hard from left to right here but over on the right though you know you have a gray angle
Into the green here you got to carry this bunker you have a large tree here this bunker really isn’t in play anymore for these guys but you’ve seen some guys you know drive it down here behind this tree it’s definitely a nuisance so you know this hole definitely promotes
Staying on the right side of the Fairway here uh you know there’s some shawood you know it’s uh the next couple holes there’s a water hazard over here I think really the only water hazard is that in play at this tournament really similar holes both the water hazard are over on
The left here short par fours uh and then you go back around the property do a la par or par three fourth uh the fifth here this little Canal is not in play guys tend to hit about three-wood about here and have about 150 yard or
You know 160 yard shot uh in and then you can see kind of like the positional nature of this you know of of this golf course here like you know listen you got two bunkers here got to squeeze it you know your t- shot to hit it right here
You got out of bounds over here you got trees over here you know guys aren’t really hitting driver a whole lot it’s really just a lot of plotting positional golf uh same thing hold number eight here got a couple bunkers over here obviously a lot of trees you know the
Fair really narrow here and then the ninth hole here this is one of the easier par fives on the pj2 schedule I think last year the average score was7 under par uh only 506 yards you do have out of bounds over here but I know guys have been using uh the driving range
Fence here uh for Tio relief uh really scummy when they’ve done that uh I think the guy in a bogy I think I think it might have been Roger Sloan maybe a couple I don’t know how I randomly know that but I think Roger Sloan I’m sorry
If I’m slandering you Roger SLO if you’re watching but uh he he tried to claim that he wanted to hit a left-handed shot over here but because of where the fence was uh he got Tio out of it pretty ridiculous but if you avoid hitting it over here this is a obvious
Birdie hole then he has short par for uh 10th where guys can you know drive right up to the apron here uh 11th and then going back around the property you know a lot of similar positional uh Par Four is coming up here you you know the 12th
Is four only 440 13th middle the dog LS about 280 here yeah basically play positional golf over here same thing over swinging over to 14 again hit towards the middle of the dog leg you can’t really got you’re not really seeing guys really hit it over this dog
Leg um and then the 17th hole here we’ll just zoom right to that this is the Redan hole and this uh green was reconstructed and re uh renovated or not renovated restored I think four or five years ago guys complained because they felt like it was too firm here I I’ll
Zoom in basically if you don’t know what Redan green is basically it’s a front to back sloping green uh with some bunkers over here it also cans pretty hard from right to left so if you missing these bunkers over here you know I mean you
Don’t really have much of a shot to get it close the especially if the pin’s over here if you’re long that makes it tough too you know it’s not a very easy part three um you know it’s 194 yards if you got some wind coming off the off
Here that can make it challenging but you know if there’s no wind if you’re a pretty good iron player uh there’s not a whole lot of versus and number 18 the other par five on this golf CS I actually like this par five it reminds
Me a lot of the the closing hole of Southwind where you know obviously you got the water here but you got a couple bunkers um I think there was speculation maybe three or four years ago the guys are actually going to try and go down uh the 10th Fairway here you
Know to kind of avoid all this uh they made this out of Bounds at this point so and this isn’t a very easy driving hole especially when it’s playing pretty firm you know you run even with a three-wood you know the ball can run into this
Bunker here uh you could uh you know overcook it into these bunkers over here I mean you could try hitting driver but it’s not easy to hit a right to left shot you know with just some of the technology of these days but you know if
You can execute the shot though uh it’s only 551 yards sets up about you know like a 220 yards or so uh shot into the green here there’s a little collection area down here um that you got to worry about but you know overall look I mean
Like this is a different contest than what it was last week last week was a lot of driver and a lot of short irons uh this is more plotting positional golf um you know more mid irons I would say as we’ll go over in a little bit um yeah
And also too well well you’ll see in my article uh a couple other features I have about this place but um you know why don’t we take another quick Break um let’s go and then we’ll go into some of the stats I’m looking for some of the
Gambling Lees I’m looking for uh this week so let’s talk about the game time. G uh uh Co and listen like you know it’s week 18 of the NFL season maybe you’re trying to scramble right now to find a ticket um you know you know find the
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Code s gpn to get 50% off your first month today start researching start winning with Hall of Fame bets okay let’s get rid of uh Google Earth here and so let’s start going over just some general information about uh wly here so unfortunately the gcsa they have
Not released the 2024 specs for this tournament I don’t anticipate any real changes to the golf course from last year I just did a quick Google search didn’t see anything Chang in you know usually there’s some subtle tweaks they make it but it’s not really material to
How the golf course goes so so this is a par 70 uh this is only 7,044 yards greens running about 11 to 12 in the Cent meter again with these you know Hawaiian greens by the coast here if there’s a lot of win can’t run these
Greens a little all that quick uh it doesn’t look like there’s gonna be a whole lot of win and I I’ll show you in a little bit for this week so maybe they can get them up a little quicker but overall typically one of the slower
Greens on the PJ T average green size 7100 Square feet in area uh that’s one it’s above average uh here that’s why you know you see a really high green regulation rates because there’s large greens um there is only I I showed you on the Google Earth there there’s really
Only one water hazard in Play It’s that little Pond between the second and third hole you know there is a canal there but no one’s really hitting into it everybody’s hitting over it uh as far as Agronomy goes so the gcsa has never been descripted for whatever reason about
What’s hyperb I know some people care about that whether it’s Tiff eagle or Champion whatever they just listed as Bermudagrass and I never been able to find exactly what type I did end up finding though and I don’t know if this source is credible it was apparently on
Wikipedia it is TW it is uh Tri dwarf Bermuda that is the exact strain of green on the greens as far as what is on the approaches the fairways I don’t exactly know I don’t know if this is even verified but just overall though kind of like what I talked about last
Week if you just FOC focus on just overall Bermuda putting stats you’ll get your answer and most of the guys that tend to do pretty well here you know they tend to do really well putting on Bermuda so I I would just look for your all your non overseed Bermuda stuff plug
That in your models take a look who’s good on those types of courses and you should be fine here uh the rough is three inches that is actually I think up from last or well last year it was up from what it was and I think they wanted to basically add
Another defense to this golf course because they felt like scoring was starting to get a little bit out of control if there wasn’t any weather I think Hideki had just won at 23 under you know this golf course also has never really been the most penal if you miss a
Fairway so maybe by adding a little higher bermo which can be a little bit gnarly that presented much of a challenge um unfortunately it didn’t really do much uh for this tournament you know it made it a little more penal to hit into the rough basically the
Difference between your scor on a hole if you hit in the rough and um you know what you would if you in the Fairway it was a little higher than the pj2 were average but still nothing really to write home about so this still is a golf course especially with if it’s really
Soft if there’s no wind definitely one that you know guys can take advantage of and you know speaking of which we’re GNA look at the weather forecast so looks like on Monday and Tuesday lot of rain coming some wind you know really gnarly conditions the guys are not going to
Have a very good time with their practice rounds but after that starting on Thursday you know maybe a little bit of wind um you know in the afternoon so maybe a slight favor towards guys going in the morning but this is going to be a really soft Golf Course coming in
There’s not gonna be a whole lot of wind especially throughout the first couple of days and actually into the weekend Dead Calm conditions on Saturday and Sunday with um based on this weather forecast God these guys are going to hit a lot of birdies uh you know if you’re
Somebody wants to go to underdog bet round props um definitely bet over on birdies under on round scores this is going to be these guys are going to eat this place up not only is it g to make it very easy hit the greens as well but
Because of the narrow nature of the fairways yeah I’ll make it a little longer but this is already a short golf course it’s going to keep the balls in the Fairway like in firmer conditions um you know the balls because if it it’s really narrow once it hits a fairway it
Might bound to the rough but if it’s really soft like this we’re going to this much rain they’re going to be able to hit Fairways at a very high rate with whatever Club they really use and they’re going to have you know mid irons into really soft
Greens lots of birdies this week so who are gonna be the guys that get some of those birdies well you know let’s actually look you know last couple years uh you know let’s refresh everybody who the winner was so last year s excuse me seuk Kim uh cabers boy minus 18 thanks
To a choke job from Hayden Buckley on the last hole there uh but I mean see hit a final round 64 he definitely earned it uh you know the first couple rounds I think there was some win so scoring wasn’t all that good but over the weekend though minus two uh on
Saturday minus 1.74 on Sunday most of the holes play under par here here’s how Number Nine by the way you see just you know 42 birdies 28 pars five eagles only one bogey uh last year in the final round uh 2022 the a tournament that I
Don’t really like to go back to because I had uh Russell Henley let’s go back to the results page here uh Hideki beats Russell Henley in a playoff after Henley had a five shot lead after nine and I got Co text from my co-host saying this over and he was
Really but hurt that he didn’t have Henley because he hates Henley and I had Henley he didn’t know about I think he actually knew but uh he wanted to basically try and sabotage in in his you know you know his evil ways but Hideki had a great back nine final round 63
Like I people want to point to the fact that Henley chok he he had a 65 that day like he stopped making putts on the back nine but I think in hindsight Hideki monama led the field in putting on a Bermuda Golf Course that week good
Figure it’s just golf at that point uh really easy scoring conditions though it was uh two under was the average score it was average score was three under on Sunday 2021 Kevin n won over H Chris Kirk and walk Neeman this was the tournament actually Chris Kirk needed to
Do well he got his card Uh Kevin n wins a 21 under uh thanks to a 61 on um Saturday overall score minus 2.25 for the tournament again just on the weekend guys killed it 2020 though that’s the one where that was only 11 under one by cam Smith really bad weather conditions
That year I think it was cold they got some rain they got some wind during the tournament and you know I mean that made it kind of fun it wasn’t just a birdie Fest at that point but you know this tournament is not relevant because as
Was what I just showed you with the weather forecast is going to be dead Cal so it’s not you’re not really getting anything out of this one so why don’t we go to the course fit tool this what I alluded to earlier uh obviously I love using this on data golf this basically
Tell tries and tell you what type of golfers are expected to do well at wly and this is one of the least helpful predictive skill set charts they have um no correlation at all as far as what guys do driving um basically you can be long you
Can be short short doesn’t really matter those types of guys can do well those guys can do guys can do not so well you would think there’d be a higher correlation of guys who would be really good at finding Fairways actually it’s lower than pg2 or average so that
Doesn’t help you um Iron play is obviously still important most of important predictive skill set going to the tournament this actually has slightly less predictive value at this golf course than others and putting again you would think okay I’m Bermuda you know tends to be guys who put pretty
Well to you know win this thing less than predictive value with putting coming into the tournament as far as what they’re going to do the only thing that actually stands out as some sort of predictive power is around the green it’s actually a lot higher and actually
Let me do the take off the relative importance for like let’s make everything just equal you can see just kind of how skewed it is and how unpredictive everything else is how I would explain that is because this is a golf course that it’s not one with a
Driver it’s a lot of plotting it’s a lot of positional golf it’s short the types there’s only a certain number of golf courses where a guy who doesn’t possess a lot of length on the PJ tour and maybe gets by with some wedge play and around the green play to
Keep their card there’s only so many of those golf courses that thing contend at this is one of them so you know this is going to give those guys a better chance to be towards the top of the leaderboard this tourament also doesn’t draw the best Fields so generally the weaker
Players in the PG T tend to be your shorter you know pit squeaks kind of that basically have to grind around the Green in order to save Strokes to keep their card and I think that’s why this is so skewed this way uh but everything else though you know I mean like I
Showed you in the Google Earth I mean there there might be some opportunities to hit driver and get aggressive cut some corners but overall though everybody kind of plays everything right in front of them it really I kind of equate it as like if you’re a fan of
NASCAR with Daytona or tal they got the restrictor plates kind of make everything kind of even I would say it’s kind of like that it it basically limits what the entire field can do with the r skill sets so some other correlated golf courses there’s a lot of ones that um
Are just haven’t been played a whole lot the last couple years but the ones that you know played a whole lot Colonial you know going over the Google Earth I definitely see a lot of colonial especially some of the the um dog like par fours they’re you know pinched in
With some Fairways Tree Line positional golf a lot of coloni In This Place Austin Country Club too a lot of short irons um in that one that’s also a golf course that doesn’t really promote a particular style that one this is kind of similar to that place uh harbort toown Sea
Island um you know you probably are not surprised given some of the guys who do well here versus there a lot of crossover at those places TBC San Antonio that was a surprising one that’s very driver heavy um but apparently that is highly correlated um to Wy as far as success
TBC Southland another one that isn’t really one with the drivers more plotting positional nature that’s a Corel Golf Course TBC Summerland that’s a shorter golf course with a lot of birdies so that makes sense Port Royal another short Golf Course a lot of your shorter golf courses are pretty
Correlated uh as far as guys who typically do well those places as here so those are probably some good com courses to look at uh if you’ve never done this before looked or bet this Wy before take a look at some of the one results of those places and you should
Do okay let’s now go to uh this this is my favorite page the actual details of the tournament and let’s start first with the how in tournament you’re able to separate yourself and last year not helpful at all uh driving was not as impactful as the average PG Tour event
In at the 2023 Sony Open as it is you know at others uh it was about with you know distance and accuracy had the same about correlation towards their contribution to strok off that week as they do the PG average other words see their iron play wasn’t as uh important
As far as separating yourself as the other events same thing around the greens actually nothing’s really all that point and that’s actually something else I want to talk about like this is I I I think the of you know data golf measures the difficulty as far as around
The green compared to other places this is 78th out of 87th at Wii so even though this is one where typically guys are really good around the green tend to do well here not only is it really easy conditions around the green like even from bunkers
Or Fairways or the rough like it’s not that get up and down it’s not making a a big dent as far as like you’re not be able to get up and down and win this tournament essentially it’s it’s a lot less than what it is the P than you know
The rer P event really the only thing that is has a higher boost to your overall tot search CH is through putting here that’s higher than your pg2 average and that’s pretty consistent through most of the years except for 20 well not in 2022 it back La in 2022 mostly driving
It was through your accuracy that was how you were really able to separate yourself um that year but again iron playing around the green didn’t do a whole lot to separating yourself in the tournament putting was about pg2 average 2021 in really calm benign conditions again turns into you know you’re able to
Separate yourself with your putter in this tournament though uh accuracy still if you hit more fairies to do a little better than most anybody else this one actually promoted a little more longer guys I remember that one in 2021 uh when Kevin a one even though he’s one of the
Shorter hitters that was a really firm Golf Course guys were hitting it a long way so if you’re able to keep it in the Fairway you’re getting higher driving distances and really shorten up the golf course that’s how I’ll explain that and I’m not even gonna go back to 2020
Because that’s not relevant to what we’re going to see this week and then the proximity buckets here this is consistent throughout the years uh I’ll go back to 2023 because that’s the most recent one there is a heavy emphasis on shots between 125 and 225 and really what I
Want to focus on here is what I’m circling right here the shot from 15020 that makes about 45% of your shots for the entire tournament so you know obviously you got you know your short irons here but it’s no different really to your average PG event you got some longer proach shots
Mostly in the par 3es um you know and the two par fivs but just because of the high volume of middl or midlength par fours on this golf course where you can’t really shorten up a whole lot with a driver a lot of shots from 150 to 200 and that’s actually
Something I’m going to make a change for this week typically what I do is you know data go they offer strok game per shot that I just download to excel usually I just look at it from under 150 and over 1 15 this one I’m actually
Going to make an effort because of how pronounced and how how much how higher volume of shots between 150 and 200 as there is in the pgs who were uh average I’m actually going to take it under 150 1 15200 and over 200 this week and try and basically estimate your stroke SC
Because I want that to stand out on my spreadsheet I want to be able to see okay what do you do from 150 to 200 um you know at this golf course so uh and then you know one last thing I forgot to put it up on the the window so I can
Actually um you know have it handy but let’s go to let’s go to course history and it’s not going to filter everybody who’s in the field but most of the guys who typically play this event are going to show up so um let’s see a lot of guys who don’t
Play this event anymore so are at the top there oh because they have a lot of rounds okay so Kum morawa is a guy who he’s only played it twice but he’s got you know he does very well here really good iron player JT he won it back in
2017 really good iron player Cory Conor is a really good iron player doesn’t rely a whole lot on the driver get around Justin Rose great iron player no longer really is you know a great driver but because of how good of an iron player he is he does very well this
Event um you know Ben Griffin tlor Montgomery Mark Lehman DJ’s even done right here like that’s kind of goes to show but when I looked when I showed you the predictive skill set chart not really a pronounced type that actually um can go here and like dominate like it’s not just all bombers
It’s not just all Shor hitters like there’s a huge mix of guys who can go here and do very well uh Russell you know but that like I mentioned though you know Russell Henley or web Simpson or Luke Donald or Matt coocher um these guys have all played it
A lot these guys have all played a very well uh in their career so that’s really what I’m going to be looking for a whole lot guys who are going to make a lot of bures really well in Bermuda but I’m going to focus a lot on that 150 to 200
Range uh this week for handicapping purposes it’s kind of similar to what I looked at for Century tournament champions but that was way more driver heavy so I kind of wanted to look more for guys who you know like hitting driver a lot and were good from really
Short irons this is more you know short to Mid iron range and then look at basically bures and then I everything other than that I’m not really caring too much about so all right so that’s it let me get rid of this and go to the
Solo layout thank you for joining me uh this Sunday morning uh good luck with any bets for the century tournament champions you have are sweating right now and this week on the golf gaming podcast uh MC an will be here on Monday breakdown DFS we will do our betting
Show on Tuesday so yeah we will see you then uh enjoy uh the rest of the century enjoy the final week of the NFL season week uh take care everybody
