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What is going on everybody happy Wednesday and welcome back to the NBA hardwood show talking today’s 10 game draftking slate we got 12 games on FanDuel big NBA Wednesday a lot of big prize pools out there all that good stuff I’m draft J of course joined today
By the usual crew we got AP we got man gone and we got a lot of basketball to talk about let’s throw it to you AP how you doing on this Wednesday Wednesday afternoon yeah doing really well excited Wednesday and I like what they’ve done they’ve broken up the slates a little
Bit they kept the two night games off and uh you know we’re gonna have at Run perer Sports we like having all the content that we can have we’re going I’m gonna make sure that we have if they continue to do this which I think they will and we’ll continue to get good
Prize pools in the for the night two game slate we’re gonna have some specific content dedicated to that um but no this slate looks like a ton of fun we got some you know chalk Jazz chalk uh chalk uh Cavs and uh Pistons it seems like so uh and I ran an optimal
Early on I posted in chat there’s like four backup uh four backups or four Reserve players in the lineup so like it should be a fun night maybe a lot of tilt but it should be a lot of fun yeah always a lot of tilt no matter no matter
What happens uh somebody’s tilting but yeah uh 10 games on the Slate on DraftKings that means there’s more options than usual and I don’t know what the way pricing is with how tight it is I do kind of like these bigger slates because it just gives you a few more
Options gives you more you know time to wait for Value see if that emerges all that good stuff manone let’s throw it over to you still in Paris I see how you doing on this Wednesday afternoon yes always always chilling by the AEL Tower uh hopefully JT will show up as well but
Uh yeah it’s been a good time uh you know over here at Rumer we got tons of stuff going on I mean the golf content is in full effect and swing so excited for golf season to start up but of course we got 10 games in the NBA
Tonight I’m excited for it uh I’m with you DC I like a little more games I like the ownership to spread out a little bit uh so should be a fun slate and uh we have I mean we have news that we’ve already gotten we have news we might get
And uh we’ll see how it all shakes out I think it’s gonna be a good slate though so excited to break it down absolutely no time to waste with 10 games to talk about so let’s jump right into it we’ll follow the DraftKings order of games as we always do and we
Start off with uh with a doozy a repeat I think the fifth time Milwaukee and Indiana have played this year uh total down I think from 260 on Monday all the way down to 257 and a half Milwaukee is favored by three and a half no real news
Actually that’s not true Milwaukee Chris Middleton big news there he’s questionable that would certainly open up some minutes for uh some of the wing players from Milwaukee but I think most importantly you know bump the Milwaukee Stars guys like Giannis and Brook Lopez and then Indiana does have significant
News Bruce Brown and Andrew nard both questionable Brown has missed the last three or four games n hard got hurt on Monday and uh on Monday mango I believe we both nailed our plays of the day from this game I think you had Brook Lopez I
Know I had uh Benedict Maan both of those guys crushed pretty hard uh so we’ll see if you’re going back to the well there on on Mr Lopez but your thoughts overall on Milwaukee and Indiana certainly a good game to open up this slate yeah I mean one thing to call
Out with the Brook Lopez thing is uh you know I’ve done it two in a row and that might be my play of the day again we’ll have to see uh I gotta see what his ownership ends up being but uh Rook Lopez is 6k and he’s just too cheap for
This matchup like it’s I mean one thing I liked about my play today and yours for SCH DC like and I like this range of players is trying to find the guys in that like four five to like you know maybe like mid 6K range that just have
40 Point ceilings right and just making sure to get exposure to them because they just have the ability to break the Slate like I had a really good team the other night but I didn’t have Ben Benedict mean on one of them and the team that I
Was like rooting on that I thought was pretty good in my single entry stuff like it just couldn’t win right because it just can break the slate and I think BR Lopez has the ability to do that once again at 6K so I’m in on him uh this
Chris Middleton news is massive good news is we’ll get that early on uh Chris Middleton is 7.3k and again I talked about his minutes I’ve been out on him for a while but I’ve been back in since I’ve seen the minut trend up listen if he’s going to play I I’ve at least
Noticed the forward position kind of sucks right now just it feels like in general and I try to figure out who’s that like guy that’s not g to just bury me at that position and I think at this you know at this price yeah it’s expensive but I don’t think he’s the
Worst play in the world he feels kind of safe um if he’s in I’ll play him if not it’s going to shake up the slate and make things interesting and then it’s going to be kind of like the last slate where you’re going to want to consider
Getting Young right after the ball gate situation at 11.9k but the question is will we have enough of the value I think we would have enough value and with Middleton out that would be intriguing you’d obviously want to consider Bobby poris to at 5’7 so everything hinges on
The Chris Middleton stuff to kind of Kick the Slate off that’s gonna really dictate how how things start um if we look at the Indiana side of the ball the nard stuff is important Bruce Brown I’m assuming he’s out I mean there is a chance that nard sits and then Brown
Plays and of course then you’d see similar type of rotations that we’ve seen in the past but M at 5’5 I still think you can play him because of the ceiling that he shows eron n Smith at 5’6 I think he’s perfectly fine he’s
Going to get a lot of minutes kind of a safe play but you’re not expecting a huge ceiling there um I know Jaylen Smith busted in this spot last time he didn’t get a ton of minutes um I’m a little cautious with someone like him I
Just don’t think I love the spot and then Miles Turner at 7K I just think there’s better Center options on this slate the last slate I didn’t mind him just because I felt like there weren’t as many Center options here we have enough where I don’t think I need to go
To a mile Turner so all in all the Chris Middleton news is important I like Brook Lopez no matter what I think he’s going to be a good play uh regardless um I think if Middleton is out listen you’re gonna want to play Bobby poris probably
You’re Gonna Want to look to Giannis and tenpo if you have the value so that’s going to be a big decision point that we’ll have to look at if Middleton’s in I think he’s a really solid play that’s a safe value at se at 73 he’s not he’s
Just not going to kill you right he’s going to probably find his way to get there but if there’s other values that open up I’d probably ditch Chris middle and then the uh the Indiana side of the ball I did not mention the hle Burton stuff but at 102 he’s in the
Conversation today for sure in this matchup any guard against Milwaukee is just in the conversation I think you have to consider mean as well and if nard and brown are out that’s gonna open up some other opportunities for other guards that we got to consider yeah certainly a lot depends on how the
Injury news breaks out with Middleton Brown and nard we did get price bumps from Monday on several of these guys including maon up I think pric is up $700 in one slay which is a big jump for him uh Giannis went up $900 from 11k to
119 so uh deserve bumps I guess after Monday’s big performances but if you were on those guys like I was a little disappointed to see because I would kind of like to go back to them but a little bit more difficult now uh let’s go to
UAP yeah I think I think Mone covered a lot of it but I mean Giannis has just smashed the the Pacers which I mean we talked about it Monday it makes total sense given how the Pacers play in the weakness es that they have get out in
Transition all that stuff uh so Giannis very expensive today but I would expect nothing other than another smash from him your thoughts on Giannis Halle Burton and of course the rest of this game as well yeah Giannis averaging a pretty nice number against this Pacers
Team a lot of that has to do with obviously the pace and the lack of Rim protection I mean the Pacers were throwing two bigs at him ear early and often in that game still didn’t really slow him down he was actually for so if
You go and look go look at the box score uh you’ll see 11 assists nice triple double from our guy Giannis there uh was forcing him to to you know pass the ball out which I think is good like Giannis when he continues as he continues to
Develop that in his game is only gonna make you know him that much more valuable as a player getting you know his other guys involved so Giannis yeah to probably likely the top spin spin tonight I mean the Pacers have the Bucks number and the Bucks once again are
Favorites I’m very tempted here to take the Pacers side and potentially money line I I just think that you know they’re gonna get up for this one a couple things that I do want to note you gotta like I agree with Mone tight Ro or Chris Middleton is huge because they’ve
Been running a really tight rotation um especially against this team so that will just be more usage for probably Giannis Dame has really struggled in this matchup um one other thing to note rotational wise they like TJ McConnell now I still think there’s a lot of risk
Here he closed with them but that’s also because he was cooking and uh the Pacers had a nice nice comeback in that game and ended up winning and we all know Rick car if someone’s cooking he’s going to continue to ride the hot hand and that’s what happened with TJ McConnell
So and now his price is up too he was in in the 3K range that last time so I do think there’s risk in a guy like that and I do think due to him doing so well on this matchup he his ownership will be slightly potentially slightly inflated
As well so am I removing him from my player pool no he’s he’s been very successful in this matchup I just will say there’s a lot of risk here as well so for me in this game it’s it’s the the other thing too that I did is I ran just
Like a base uh Rubio and I do it on our sabersim shows just kind of we call it our base build and just taking your the average projections out there sorting it kind of like you would in a cash type build projecting for the optimal lineup
And we were getting no bucks or Pacers players in those builds so I thought that was very interesting uh but for me it’s the studs here it’s Giannis mainly Pacers the rotation is just highly highly volatile a bit unpredictable better suited for tournaments and then Halbert he’s you know uh the guy that
You can always go to but there a couple play plays that are just a little bit cheaper that I think are a little bit safer that we’re going to talk about here very very soon yeah that makes sense to me McConnell it’s simple for me with
McConnell if Brown and nard are both out I’m probably playing TJ McConnell at 4K just given the upside that he brings at that price point but if either one of those guys are in I just think the minutes aren’t aren’t very secure so we’ll see on that obviously the early
Game we’ll get that news early uh minutes projection for diven senzo we’ll talk about that when we get to the Knicks game which I think is interesting we got some strong opinions on that one but we’ll get there eventually for now we’ll move on to the only other game in this early
7 PM Eastern Time window it is Washington and Cleveland no real new injury news in this one Cleveland remains without Garland remains without Moy which of course has changed their team uh it made them I mean seemingly a little bit more predictable Donovan Mitchell it’s every night with him and
It’s been what four or five straight games for Mr Jared Allen I know came back down to earth a tiny bit in the last game but still nearly 40 fantasy points on DraftKings not bad at all and now both of these guys who are on fire get the goat matchup against the
Washington Wizards they’re favored by nine and a half here at home two40 total start with you with this one on AP Washington and Cleveland what are you doing here yeah a couple things to note I I actually like the over in this game and um you know my my numbers are kind
Of on that number but I’m giving it a slight bump for a few reasons uh you know the Cavs they like to shoot a lot of Threes the wizards they like to give up a lot of open threes um a couple other things too is without Moy in there
It’s a great matchup for opposing power forwards if you go and look at kind of the more recent stats opposing power forwards have absolutely smash this team and I think a lot of that has to do like Dean Wade’s an okay Defender uh literally like does nothing else but
He’s not Evan Mobley and uh obviously uh Mobley being out is is just a huge hit to him and I think that’s why that specific statistic is is popping out now a couple other things kma his price tag has come way down from what I I think
You know we would call the season average like mid mid 8K range over the last two games um and more recently his usage and what he’s doing on offense has been insane I mean you’re talking 37 40% usage rate taking a ton of shots he’s going to have a fantastic matchup here
The chalk in this game is gonna be Donovan Mitchell on the other side I agree with that chalk it’s chalk I want to eat I’m also good with Jared Allen bigs have absolutely smashed this Wizards team if this game stays close I think it’s going to be due to KY kma
Having a big game I think uh matchup wise I I think he’s the guy that could be a problem for them and so 79 is a very fair price tag I know there’s a lot of risk on the wizard side because the rotations are at times tough to trust
But I love the spot for kusma 79 uh Denny has been playing very well um over the last few games too I I think weson self Jr is starting to find a rotation that he is somewhat comfortable with now the second I say that things will probably change and I’ll uh end up
You know uh B biting my tongue on that one but the guy feel confident with is kusma at 79 so again on this slate there’s a lot of really good plays we’re going to talk about some chalk later on in the Slate to but just thinking about leveraging early game Stacks or if
You’re going away from like a Giannis type build the way I would do it is because we I like Donovan Mitchell I like Jared Allen but how do I can I and if so how do I fit Kyle kosma into into that build so if I was playing an early
Stack and and if I was playing that kind of back and forth game environment which I think we could see um obviously the the the Wizards bring a lot of risks but kyman would be my guy uh that I would want to find a way to Target in this
Game I you know I I I should note Jord I gotta be careful too with Jordan P the price tag is low I don’t know if we can go there I I think it like the rotation is just so volatile and the guy is is cheeks but I got to mention that he’s
Back in that range where I mean look like DraftKings what are you doing he was eight against Atlanta last game and now he’s 64 the price like the price uh under adjustment there has just been absolutely insane feel feels like DraftKings hit like a big button on on player adjustments for pricing between
The last slate and this one because a bunch of players moved more than they typically do agree with you on on kma Allen I like Mitchell mango and I mean if you want to get weird on this game and get out to an early lead Jordan pool
Is 6,400 I don’t hate it and even tus Jones playing a little bit better and his minutes seem a little bit more secure you could see a good game here I mean it’s a 240 total you can get most of the Stars onto your team if you can
Find some value uh you know I I don’t love the early stack game but this one a little bit enticing to me your thoughts here man go Cleveland and Washington yeah like I always say Kyle kman like he’s 79 like the upside there at the
Price uh I don’t need to get there but I understand the floor is rough I don’t need to on this slate though I I get it if you want to to stack it up or you know you could we we talk about not like you don’t need game Stacks but I will
Say with the Wizards if you want to like full on get there sometimes that does matter with them a little bit I don’t hate the tyus Jones call not in on the Jordan pool call but I get it I haven’t really been on Jordan pool much so I
Missed the games where he’s done well and haven’t been on the games where he’s been really bad so I’m I’m just out on Jordan pool here um for the Cleveland side the real big talking points are how do you handle Donovan Mitchell and Jared Allen on on this slate right and a big
Decision point is Tyrese hurn and dominan Mitchell lock in the early game right so if you lock yourself in two of those guys you could lock yourself into both do you have enough value to lock yourself into both right you or maybe you’re waiting on some value to come and
Then it never does right so that is a big decision Point that’s going to come up and of course if Middleton’s ruled out well then you’d want to consider getting to Giannis and that would be another big decision point where there’s three key Stars locking very early so
Let me at least mention that because I think that’s very important if I had to rank these Stars right now I think for me I would obviously I can’t really rank Giannis but if you’re telling me gun in my head right I gotta pick Mitchell or I
Gotta pick hle Burton in this spot I think I’m leaning Mitchell right now as crazy as that sounds I just think I like the savings that I’m currently getting now the decision could change if I just get enough value where it’s just easy to get hle Burton also it’s nice to be able
To put Donan Mitchell shooting guard which sometimes is a rougher spot to roster um but all in all I’m in on Donovan Mitchell today I think I prefer him over Halle Burton if I have to pick one um Jared Allen at 78 I don’t mind
Him but I do think the price is getting up there and I I think he could easily still keep smashing at the tag the matchup is good we always talk about it centers against Washington absolutely destroy uh when I run my stuff on FanDuel which I have ran it let’s see
How much let’s see how much Jared Allen I got in the base run because you normally get a lot uh I did not get as much because he’s 8.7k but uh he’s someone I might even up and just disagree with on FanDuel just because the stocks are really key over there and
The stocks you get against Washington is so big so I rank it Mitchell one Allen two then it’s Levert three and maxr four but Levert and maxr are really last guys in they’re not really guys I’m prioritizing when I run mme uh I don’t want 50% of them but I wouldn’t mind
Having been mixed and match throughout my lineup so that’s kind of the overall takeaway from this game and I think we can move on to the next window of games so hey real quick go ahead I got I gotta mention one one one last play real real
Quick and actually uh shout out to Bogarts he would consider this guy he call him a thought is what what they call him but Sam Merill a little value Off the Bench so my one thing with Sam Marill if you’re not playing Donovan Mitch Mitchell I would consider Sam
Marill because if the game blows out or something like that the second unit’s going to cook and the Wizards give up a ton of open look uh uh o Open three-point looks and samano’s been red hot from Deep so he’d be the one guy I think he’s three four on DraftKings so
If you’re inan he’s definitely a tournament deep value tournament play but I just had to mention that since it’s the Wizards my only argument against the a I just want to mention because I think this is super important if he is getting any ownership because we’re struggling for Value just don’t do
It like I yeah I agree with that I agree with that I think we we we need to mention it because it’s one of like for instance I was uh I was talking to Glock and he told me I you know he was making fun of me for making Brook Lopez my play
Of the day the other day and he didn’t get ownership right and was fine I understood maybe not wanting to play him as much at that point um but if samano’s low owned I understand it and get it but if he’s high owned you just find other
Values on a 10 game I think it’s a I’m seeing Marl projected closer to 20% ownership on some which yeah that’s what I’m 20% would be egregious butre he could he could get there against the Wizards though I don’t think he’s gonna get to 20% but if he does I
Would be upset if he was on my team I would say that DC what could happen though is like the other night we talked about this we really liked ish Smith and we thought like maybe the news wouldn’t hit in time and then what happened was ownership changed a ton and then ish
Smith was like 35% and it took away from that mid-tier build that we talked about and actually the winning team it was funny it was the two things I talked about but I didn’t combine them together as I said jannis is the best stud if we
Get enough value which we did but the funny part was I said the balance build is what would win wi and what won was Giannis with a bunch of 5K guys to 7K and not going up to the eight and n9k option didn’t is Smith and Nick Smith
Both sucked in that game I think yeah I mean they didn’t they didn’t like I Nick Smith was bad but ish Smith didn’t kill you but ish Smith wasn’t on the winner because those 5K to 7K guys they all hit those nice like mid- tier like ceiling performances and then that was perfect
To pair it with Giannis because you didn’t need a second stud with Giannis so um yeah the the bills change so you have to think about that if Sam Marell is going to be 5% sure yeah that punt could easily make sense but if he’s
Going to be 20 I want to see one Fist of the field just get destroyed yeah I don’t think anyone’s mentioned them the last play I’ll mentioned though Carris lever’s been really good and three of the last five games 40 plus in three of the last five
He’s 6,400 and go he’s kind of in that Brook Lopez bucket for me of guys who can give you 40 plus in that 6K range I don’t think many people will play him coming off the bench but they just don’t have a lot for Playmakers and of course
I mean this is Washington right he could absolutely get cooking against the you know tus Jones Jordan P whoever else Washington throws out there so I do like Carris Levert a little bit I probably wouldn’t play him you know with Donovan Mitchell but I do think he’s an
Interesting play for a low owned chance at 40 plus fantasy points all right we’ll move on to the only game in the 7:30 Eastern Time window it is OKC Atlanta anybody that watched that OKC Boston game last night that was fantastic basketball so OKC obviously on
The back to back here no big injury news from either side little bit surprised that nobody’s popped up at least questionable for OKC after yesterday but so far looks like they’re all going to be in there DeAndre Hunter does remain out for the Atlanta Hawks we’ll start
With you AP OKC and Atlanta uh another big total 248 and a half OKC favored by one yeah so kind of a let down spot here for OKC I know I know our guy Big T was all over the uh the Thunder uh getting the the win over Boston last night great
Call a lot of people bet that got a lot of money was talking to our guy Big T again today we were talking about that game was an awesome game OKC the real deal this team is incredible they’re they have such a bright future I know we’ve talked about it on multiple shows
But this spot where you know coming off a game where they played their starters heavy heavy minutes and then had to travel to Atlanta it is such a prime let down spot so I I had to mention it uh but both Big T and I actually like the
Atlanta Hawks tonight you can take the side or you can take it straight out money line and for a few reasons too um like could OKC show yeah I mean they might just be built different and they could come out and absolutely ball out but they were incredible and and
Especially from three-point range like 50% uh made threes like Josh giddy was was uh balling out last night I mean Shay was doing his thing I just think it’s a prime let down spot uh and then on on the hawk side I mean Jaylen Johnson I I know he’s projected to get a
Lot of ownership and rightfully so this guy is a stud I think he’s too cheap right now he’s uh playing 35 Plus minutes he uh he racks up the rles he knows how to get rebounds and um I think he’s going to make for a really strong
Play the Trey young you know being 103 is much tougher because and look like we have Halbert 10 uh 102 we have Trey young then 103 and we have Donovan Mitchell who is just like in such a good spot I have Don Donnie Mitch over all of
Those guys um T Trey young is interesting but man he’s still sharing the back court obviously with uh with de Murray I definitely think you know he’s a fine tournament play he gives you that nice tournament upside and you typically see it against uh poor teams is is is
The other thing but I think uh I think this game actually falls under the total tonight the Atlanta Hawks play play with a lot of pace but I just I I think they come out they get the win and um I think OKC just a little sluggish the other
Thing that I think we see and we see this all the time with OKC’s I think they open up the rotation a little bit since the Sardis had such heavy minutes against that Boston team what you’re going to see is conri Williams you know maybe Isaiah Joe Cas Wallace these guys
Are gonna get a little bit more run maybe two or three more additional minutes does that mean that they’re in play I don’t think so I don’t think that these are guys that you really want to consider I just see okay see keeping their guys trying to keep them kind of
Fresh coming off that big wi tight rotation I see them opening up just a little bit so uh for me it it’s honestly it’s Jaylen Johnson the guy that I have the most interest in and when OKC opens up that uh the rotation I just I like to
Be off of them um Josh giddy at 5’9 just feels like such a trappy type play I know put up a 42 piece last night against Boston 36 piece against the Nets I’m telling you this guy he’s only playing like 25 minutes 24 25 minutes a
Game there’s a lot of risk there think about Chris Paul last night he was Mega shock like what like 60% owned and uh extremely you know definitely underwhelmed last night so uh kind of a different play there but uh the thought process is the same if we are getting ownership on Josh
Giddy yeah that all makes sense to me I like that Hawks call maybe a little hawks and under parlay call I think could could make some sense here OKC maybe comes out a little bit slower after after last night I could see a more a little bit more defensive game
Obviously it’s not going to be super defensive with these two teams but let’s go to you man go OKC Atlanta what do you got for us yeah uh I mean definitely a spot where hey Atlanta Hawks on the Slate right and when they’re on this late we want to Target them right
They’re one of the teams to look at but OKC it’s you know it’s always difficult to make the decision on it but the problem is there the ceilings are there right so if you’re an mme player you’re definitely gonna want to mix and mat some these guys I think it’s some like
You know single entry three max stuff you only play a couple lineups I think it’s easier to make some Fades on these options uh another thing to mention with the forward position uh today is like forward like isn’t great in my opinion and like if you lose the Chris Middleton
Play I could see you easily just defaulting to like a uh like a Jaylen Williams right I think Jaylen Williams at 73 he has a ceiling there um it’s not my favorite play in the world but I just see that as like an easy quick fix if
You wanted but of course you’d probably want to get some other uh you know plays on the Bucks that might help make that a little bit easier for your teams but um OKC Jaylen Williams is fine SGA really great pivot off of Halle Burton and Mitchell at probably no ownership right
I mean how can you argue against that sure he might see de J Murray defense at times but um it’s SGA You could argue he’s like you know top five MVP this year you you could make so uh I do think SGA is definitely um in play as a
Tournament contrarian spend today uh I don’t mind Lou Dort uh at 5K um minutes can be up and down at times we know they can open up this rotation a bit but I do think they’re going to need him to guard some of these uh players on the Hawks uh
I think 5K is a good tag and in these like up and down games it can get a little sloppy because like the team total being high those are good game environments for someone like L dor so I don’t mind him as a cheap option and
Then on the Atlanta side I don’t hate deona Murray at 77 I just think the upside it’s it’s there at the price it’s a safe safe play a little bit of upside too um so I don’t mind him uh Jaylen Johnson I should mention him as well uh
6.3k the minutes are really strong on him right now um You could argue OKC it’s not like a glamorous match the target just in general but I just think the price is too good again forward isn’t great today at the moment right if you look at just that forward position
If you sort by it you have Giannis at 11.9k then there’s a huge drop right then it’s Scotty Barnes at 9k Julius Randle Demar D rozan like it’s a lot of guys like we’re not super excited about so naturally you just land to a lot of
Seven sixk guys as if forwards the play today and I think that makes Jaylen Johnson just one of those like safe options that it might be like a plug-and play that I don’t feel bad about and just kind of getting in there and trying to find other ways to get different with my
Teams makes sense to me with Jaylen Johnson he does look like one of the better plays on the Slate and just yeah given the lack of value you got it seems like you got to play like sometimes one or two of the obvious values right you
Want to be careful which ones you pick but it’s hard to avoid all the chalk in NBA and uh I don’t even think you should so J i’ I’ve really felt and I feel pretty strong about this opinion is like when you have good forward values like I felt
Like L dor was a good forward value Herbert Jones good forward value like I want to eat those plays and get those really safe minutes just because I feel like the uh risk reward isn’t as important as at the center and the guard position because I just feel like the
Volatility between a lot of the guards is a lot different than the forwards right now um and I I felt that when running the Sims and everything too like I just I don’t know I feel like I have a pretty good read on it and I’m pretty
Confident in my take on yeah I agree with you completely we don’t talk much about position scarcity but maybe we should talk more about it because it is pretty important in the NBA I mean there’s a billion centers and a billion point guards you can play every night
The forward value though is pretty scarce so it makes total sense to get on a guy like Johnson go ahead one last nugget just I mean when you think about defensively who the best guy is on OKC L Dort they’re not gonna put l Dort on
Jayen Johnson I mean if anything if like Trey Young’s cooking they’re gonna you know they’re gonna throw him on on uh on Trey young and uh porzingis and Tatum just smashed yesterday so I like front courts against this OKC team and I think Jaylen Johnson is like the perfect guy
And uh normally like with with these guys that are projected to be like Mega chock I’m always trying to like question the spot or at least like find some path of it I I do think even though he’s kind of in that range where he could tilt you
But I think he’s it’s just such a smash play in this spot another key point with that AP is like you it’s not only who is the chalk you’re getting off it’s what on Earth is your alternative right like sometimes you have to figure that out
And one way to figure it out is if there’s chalk plays that you don’t like X them out run the optimizer and then when you see your teams you’re like well I don’t like any of these well maybe it’s because you’re exing out the wrong
Pieces of chalk you need to ex off some different different ones right so that’s a really good exercise to do that it’s harder to do when you’re further away from lock or closer to lock so it’s better to do it right now right if you have guys that are going to be chalking
That you don’t like going there X them out and see what the teams look like because you might be getting some ugly teams and you might not be comfortable with it absolutely we’re on to the eight Eastern Time window first game we’ll talk about Toronto and Memphis no big
News in this one Vince Williams going to be out for Memphis Luke Canard uh should come in and take some of those minutes he’s been out for a few games pretty low total in this one 227 it is expected to be close Memphis favored by one obviously Toronto had the big trade with
OJ anobi precious auua going over to the Knicks in return for H Barrett and quickley who both entered the starting line for Toronto quickley taking over the starting point guard role was pretty solid in his debut for Toronto uh getting Toronto right I think you know with the new team anytime a team
Makes a big change like that will be important they certainly priced him up though 6,400 now for quickly AP that’s too much for me and honestly I’m not super high on this game in general am I missing anything from Toronto and Memphis Yeah you know a lot more mouths
To feed on the Toronto side we had a lot more interests on on the last slate and a lot of that was due to pricing I mean quickly was 5K now he’s 64 RJ Barrett was 5’9 now he’s he’s uh 63 I will say I believe RJ Barrett did run into some
Foul trouble um against the Cavs I mean I I think he’s gonna play like I think um I I mean he’s definitely a guy that they can run out there and play a ton of minutes and um you know we have a nice rotation here on the Raptor side but
It’s just it’s a lot more mouths to feed and um you know yaka Perle I’m looking at this and I know I’ve I’ve been on him a few times 34 37 minutes the last two games but you know against Cleveland you needed that against Jared Allen well
With how well he is playing I mean Jared Allen has just been a beast we talked about it smash spot obviously against the Wizards against Memphis they could go so many different ways um like I’m not convinced that bismack bomo is gonna you know be the guy that’s going to get
27 28 minutes um you know out there I mean it made sense trying to yesterday trying to get some size or or just some some bodies on on wimy for wm’s 26 minutes that he plays um but in this matchup I could see it going a different
Way like I could see them playing s Santi odama Off the Bench a guy that they like good value I mean Xavier Tillman really isn’t playing much um so it’s Sati and if this game goes small the Raptors like the one risk with leaning on a guy like purle is they now
Have the pieces to also go small into match teams they can siakam’s been playing the five you know he can play the five very well especially in small ball lineups so I’d be very hesitant and then you have Gary Trent or Dennis Schroeder to go along with quickly RJ
Barrett and these guys so the Raptors matchup wise can can go many different directions now so I’m not convinced on purle even though he’s been you know even though the minutes over the last two games have been nice if that inflates his ownership I don’t mind going the other way and just betting
That this game goes a little bit smaller getting more of Santi Adama Off the Bench maybe even David Rody could enter the lineup and then Luke Canard would be the other guy as well so uh talk talked to my Memphis guy too he said jaw Morant
Is good to go my problem though with jaah is I just like look look at already and I’m not even mentioning some of the the point guard that we’re going to talk about but Donovan Mitchell is way way way up there halberton you know Trey young like the the position is loaded I
Just don’t know if I can go to jaw in in this spot um you know especially with the uh like what I heard is he’s he’s he’s not hurt but man I don’t think this is a spot where they’re gonna like you know P push him beyond what what he can
Do so uh not a game that I’m too high on outside of a few value plays here yeah I’m with you I get the points with purle but at least he has the has them in its upside now man going right we’ve seen it two games in a row of course we don’t
Know what exactly Memphis is going to do but just knowing that purle could be out there 37 38 minutes when before it wasn’t really an option has to put him in play at uh at 6,100 not a bad match up he’s always been a good point per minute guy it’s just minutes haven’t
Necessarily been there so uh yeah it kind of depends on how chalk he is but I’m not seeing him with too crazy of a number right now he’s probably my favorite play in this game what do you see here between Toronto and Memphis Travis yeah I mean I agree so if you
Look the rotation they played was a lot Tighter and like I mean they played Thad young for like two minutes but like d th and bu barely played I mean yeah I mean they’re not but they’re not gonna start playing bad young right like you know
What I mean like I do think bue could gain more minutes at some point right um he played overall he played like 12 minutes um so you could see him get pushed to like four extra more or something like that but the point here is is I think yaka P’s minutes are like
Kind of here to stay uh I’m not saying it’s 37 every night but think we’re done with the yaka purle 22 minute nights like I just think those are gone um just so I think he’s a good play at this price I think the price is just going to
Continue to rise right now so 61 I like him I think he’s in the conversation um Pascal seak at 82 um I think he is still a good play uh today in this spot again look at the front Court like he’s just gonna have to play a lot of minutes
Right now so um I like the spot for him as well uh Scotty Barnes at 9k I don’t love the 9k tag as much as I like again like the 82 on seak I think that’s a little bit better and I do think with having Emanual quickly in a starting
Lineup I do think that is going to pull away from Scotty Barnes ball handing a little bit right and sure it might pull from pascals but the thing I think that still helps Pascal is because yaka purle when he’s not on the court you’re gonna
Get the Pascal at the five minutes and I think those are going to be really key and valuable for him and I think the production is going to be really good like if you told me yaka Perle was only playing 28 minutes somehow tonight I’d want a lot more Pascal because I think
It’s going to unlock more Pascal at the five minutes so um yeah I think that’s important there and then all these other guards I’m not super excited about quickley is kind of expensive Schroeder Trent Jr I just don’t need to get there so it’s really The Bigs there on the
Toronto side of the ball when it comes to the Memphis side of the ball uh I think you have to consider some options here right like bismack bio at 3.8k as a cheat value because I think they’re going to play bigger I think he’s in
Play SEL is clearly one of the big value plays to discuss on this slate like what do you do with him as chalk um I’d rather play him at Power Forward than Center I just think Center’s always a really good position and I think I’d
Rather kind of get him in there at the power forward position if I can so I think San Al D is definitely in the conversation and then when it comes with John Morant jiren Jackson and Bane like at Bane and John Mor’s prices I’m not super excited like jiren Jackson I do
Think this is a spot where I do worry about the foul trouble a little bit more I think the ceilings there at seven5 and in mme it’s fine keeping him but my single entry three max up there’s no way I’m touching jiren Jackson Bane or John Morant it’s really just looking at the
Cheap options in San Alama and bzc B Cen I wasn’t aware of this but Cen Alama is uh one of the more popular plays on the slave like real quick on that note because I I just saw that too and I’m like holy like crap like that’s
Ins yeah it’s insane he went off and people are G to see that but like it was against the Spurs like the like all these punt values go off the you know Reserve players go off against like Memphis is out of players and odama is locked into minutes either I mean they
Got plenty plenty of bodies so you could see like David Rody get more run too over like like knows I the length could bother him too I mean I I don’t hate the value but like I want to see as things like shift like
If he’s going to be like 50 60% like let me figure out an alternative and see if I like that alternative more and may maybe this requires us to not punt the forward position as much and maybe living in the mid tier with more forward options right I don’t know it just it’s
Something to definitely think about uh because yeah he’s gonna be chalked he he also like was on the court when wimy was off like he had like the nut rotation for like not the hard hardest like Spurs matchup so keep keep those things in mind right or on I’ll say this ain’t a
Chance in hell I’m playing 50% owned santiel dama on a 10 game slate won’t be on my lineups if that number holds anywhere close to true as we get closer to lock all right we’ll move on to the next game on the Slate pelicans and my Minnesota Timberwolves Minnesota favored
By six here uh no huge injury notes Trey Murphy is questionable and then looks like pretty much everybody else should be in in this one 222 total Minnesota favored by six we’ve obviously talked a lot about Minnesota’s defense this year remains uh Elite and that usually means
There’s not too many plays you want to go to on the other side especially when they’re fully healthy uh this is another game manone where I’m not seeing a ton here to love on on New Orleans Minnesota not that there aren’t plays you could go to you’re gonna get everything here I think
Pretty low own but I don’t see anything that’s really popping for me what about you with New Orleans and Minnesota yeah um so the Murphy news does matter um a lot uh I I think you can make a case that like if he’s out her Jones is 55 but like dude it’s
Definitely a good spot where they’re going to need him throughout the game like really be on the court a lot in my opinion sure could he get in foul trouble yes but I think at 55 I consider I like other forwards but I think it it’s something I would definitely be
Thinking about a little bit for sure here um I don’t hate Rudy Gober in this spot I do think they’re going to need his size and against valent Tunis he’s someone he could absolutely destroy uh but I don’t know if I want to spend 72 at center today it doesn’t seem like
That’s the route I want to go but I think it’s in play for sure um when it comes to FanDuel let me pull that up because I haven’t talked enough about FanDuel today but oh yeah herb Jones is 5K over there I think that price is really good especially for the stock up
Side that he could have um and of course an Edwards is almost always in play uh as like a contrarian spin but um I would if I do that I think I would want to do it because um an’s not even shooting guard he’s only shooting guard eligible
Yeah I don’t think I’d do it then I think I’d just rather eat Donovan Mitchell and move on with the herb Jones match up so yeah all in all it’s really looking at herb Jones and if you wanted a contrarian Rudy goar Spen I think you
Could get away with it but it’s not my favorite herb Jones is really the main guy I’m looking at right it’s fair enough yeah not a ton for me either with pelicans and Timberwolves or Ro UAP anything for us in this game no I mean it some of the pricing on
The Pelican side it feels trappy in this match up Timberwolves best defense in the NBA right now uh pretty sure like by a DEC margin they’ve just been incredible uh and both Sid we we have uh very good Defenders on both sides Jen McDaniels you know individual very good
Defender and Herb Jones obviously on the other side so when we’re talking the studs when we’re talking ant Edwards um you know Brandon Ingram in these guys I just with with both sides pretty healthy I would be very cautious um going there so uh I am this is I believe I have this
Game as almost a full fade I mean Jose Alvarado has been been really good Off the Bench uh you’re going to need the stocks though from him and I just I don’t I don’t trust it and I want to prioritize the guard position anyways because there’s a lot of really good
Plays at the guard spots so I don’t think I will be getting to a guy like him yeah me neither let’s move on to the final game here in this 8m window it is Brooklyn and Houston Houston favored by four and a half in this one 221 total uh
Injury news for Houston pretty significant Dylan Brooks remains out and tari een who’s obviously been an important player for Houston coming off the bench he is out uh only injury news we’re waiting on for Brooklyn is Dennis Smith Jr not a huge impact whether he
Plays or not uh so yeah let’s talk about Houston and Brooklyn we’ll start with UAP what are you doing with these two teams yeah so matchup wise for some reason these small forwards against uh against the Nets like the first time I mentioned this was was Denny a few
Slates ago it was when the Nets were or when yeah when the Nets were playing the Wizards Denny AIA went off before that it was Chris Middleton he went off Buon had a good game against him even Klay Thompson Klay Thompson who was struggling put up almost a 40 piece
Against this Nets team so uh you know we we like male as like an individual Defender one-on-one guy but you know to be a good defense it’s it comes down to team basketball so this team is struggling against opposing small forwards puts Jon Tate squarely right in
That spot we’ll see this is a guy again that come very much like a lud Dort comes with a lot of risk not a a high usage type of guy but I’m gonna lean on the matchup here it hasn’t failed me yet and we should get decent minutes from J
Shante the other thing too is I’m curious to see what you guys have to think but tar een Off the Bench is just he’s been a usage monster I mean if you just go and look at it his usage rate when he’s out there is like 26
27% and he’s just a fantasy Point per minute machine and with him out I mean that’s going to be a lot of you know one we should get a a condensed rotation but that’s going to be you know opportunity that’s going to go elsewhere I think
It’s a shenon type of type of night I love this match up bigs have done very well against this Nets team shenon put up uh what almost a uh yeah almost a 50 piece in 27 minutes against Detroit the Nets like they their coach may have
Lost this team maybe it was due to like resting all those guys in that one game where they probably shouldn’t have done it but it just seems like this team maybe maybe quit on uh what J Jack Von is the coach’s name so um and then on
The rocket side we should get a condensed rotation so jaon Tate alperon shenon and then uh I mean yeah Fred Van Jaylen green you two guys that you could definitely consider in this spot and uh I don’t even mind going back to a little Jaylen green but I think I’m going to
Lean on the value here we talked about position scarcity it’s been a good theme on the show Jon Tate can put him right there in that small forward spot he’s gonna be a starter there’s gonna as we said there’s a lot of chalk Reserve plays on the Slate Jan Tate starter
Tonight with multiple pieces out I think he makes for a good play I’m GNA disagree with you AP I’m throwing I’m throwing Mr Jon Tate in the San Al dama B chalk bucket uh manone break the tie for us on Jon and talk to us about Brooklyn and Houston I’m I’m
Kind of on DC side I think I I’m showing I’m showing far more ownership on Santi Adama versus I’m still seeing 20 on Jason Tate and that’s too much for me I got you it’s still a lot um and I also these ownerships could really change for
Sure with news so keep that in mind but uh I do think that Tate is not the if he’s gonna be chalky not super excited about him um like I said I talk about like those good forward values like I think uh I think J Jaylen Johnson is I
Don’t think jant Tate is exactly that but to be fair ap’s playing the matchup and uh hey I didn’t like Denny the other any he crushed but um I don’t know if I’m gonna get there with him um I don’t know if I like this game just in general
I think it’s one I’m gonna do my best to kind of stay away from uh tar een I will mention that the usage has been really good um like like we had talked about obviously uh and everything but that usage has to go somewhere right so where
Is it going to go now I think that’s a interesting talking point to kind of try and figure out here not not to J that’s where it’s not gonna go I mean that’s literally what I just said though it has to go somewhere but it doesn’t go Tate I
Don’t think it goes to Tate um then we should be jamming and shenon because like shenon is going to like absolutely smash this match up yeah I’m trying to think of who it could go to because it’s not easy for sure um could it go to Jabari I think it
Goes to Jabari Smith I really think he’s the guy like we’ve seen him without I I I’m trying to remember which games Eon was out I think it’s Jabari so at 68 he’s someone that’s not popping right now I’m gonna consider bumping him up a little bit more because I feel pretty
Confident it’s Javari Smith so Jabari Smith will be the guy that I’m going to kind of gravitate towards at 6.8k um I don’t mind the shengen idea for sure I I think he obviously could absolutely Smash in this spot I know DC has been on J green a little bit and he’s been
Playing a lot better I don’t hate the Jaylen green idea but uh yeah um uh who got 41 minutes without e was it Tate or was it Jabari Jabari Jabari not J Tate I might be with you guys screw Jan Tate joining your guys’s side I played in
That game I I think it’s Jabari jabari’s the guy so I’m Jabari and jayen green are the two guys I’m looking at I think Shan is fine as well um I also don’t think you have to go to this game though I know J yeah on a 10 gameer I don’t think it’s
Necessary and I could I mean to ap’s point like I mean the Pelicans were smashing last night right like they were smashing and then the game died and I think you could see that again this Rockets team is really good and this Nets team is not playing good basketball
Right now and I think Mel Bridges right now I’m staying away from him here too all right we’ll move on to the next window of games there’s two games in the 8:30 Eastern Time window first one we’ll talk about Portland and Dallas Dallas favored by 12 in this one total sitting at
238 uh Portland a lot of guys questionable Simons wath chimra Moses Brown all questionable we already have DeAndre Aiden ruled out for Portland so yeah a lot to be decided on who they’re gonna play tonight and then on the Dallas side Maxi clber out and Dante exom also out obviously he’s been a
Pretty important player for them over the last few weeks we’ll start with you on this one AP Portland and Dallas what do you got yeah this will be an interesting one to uh like ju I mean the Mavericks they’re definitely healthier now they have a lot of mouss or a lot of
Guys that that can get playing time here I’m curious to see what the starting lineup looks like we obviously know it’s going to be Luca Kyrie and then Derek Lively and and Derek Jones and uh I think that the last starter for exom could be a a couple a couple pieces we
Should have asked our guy Glock uh the the Mavs whisper on this but I I think it could be either like Josh Green I I think he could definitely be in line for starting role maybe Grant Williams as well um yeah I I just I think that I
Think the Mavericks just smashed this Portland team obviously a lot of news to wait for on the Portland side I don’t trust the Portland front Court like Moses Brown if he’s starts nope not going there sco Henderson has been balling I will say that we need Simons
Out but if Simon plays it’s just this back court is is a mess as well so uh I pretty much am under on the Portland side unless like everyone that is questionable gets ruled out then obviously becomes more intriguing then I would consider guys like scoot but
Obviously we don’t have that news right now so it’s kind of a sitting weight um and then yeah it’s you know if you’re trying to spend up to to to the different studs I still prefer Giannis Giannis priced very similarly to to Luca love the match up for Giannis I just
Think with Kyrie out there I mean I just think this game could be over by halftime and uh they they you know shut things down so I’m I’m under on this team I think the MAV smash I’m with you no Jann or no Luca for me tonight it’ll
Be Giannis if I’m trying to spend up in that 11k range most likely what about you man Luca this Portland news is it worth waiting on and kind of building around or how you approaching this Portland and Dallas game yeah um so I’ll just start real quick with Luca like
Luca’s a great contrarian spin if the game’s close he’s gonna Crush right like he’ll absolutely dominate but like not someone I want to be super overweight I know it doesn’t take much to get overweight on him if you wanted to but uh just don’t completely ignore that
Because everyone is like the bill today is spending up for guards like Mitchell and Halle Burton but you don’t need that much more to get up to Luca right it’s not completely flipping the bill but it’s still like again Luca can easily nuk right so just don’t ignore him um
Next up let’s talk about how to handle this situation with the news um so’s Moses Brown CRA duop they’re all questionable Simons is the big one right uh I think Simons is important because if he ends up being out um scoot Henderson at 63 does have a ceiling at
The price Malcolm brogon at 78 I don’t mind him um I do think like I do think at 78 like it is pricey but um I would want him out right I need Simons to be out that would be super important um Jeremy granted 73 I think he has a
Ceiling at the price tag so one of those other guys that I think you could make a case for but the floor is a little bit low and then Jabari Walker everyone wanted to play him and he found a way to get there in garbage time if you told me
A lot of these guys were out like brown chimra reath at least like two I think it would bring him back in the conversation a little bit more but he’s not in the conversation right now the news is really important with how to handle it but it’s not news that
Backloading for right I always talk about hey this is news I want to prepare for a backload if I fall into this news and it works out great but I’m not planning for this at all yeah makes sense Portland and Dallas three more games to talk about before we
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Slate it is a game I think with the lowest total of the entire night sitting at 220 between Chicago and New York the Knicks favored by nine obviously the Knicks involved in that trade with Toronto we saw OG’s first game played he was in some I think he fed out in that
Game or or was close to it anyway still played yeah he did fall out still played 35 minutes I was looking at the rotation AP and I think he would have played 40 plus if it wasn’t for the fouls which is about what I would expect from him
Pretty much every game under Tom Tibido uh I like him I really like Jaylen Brunson um who who I think is gonna just absolutely run the show with Barrett and RJ or quick Emanuel quickley rather out of town and then Chicago side of course uh they’ve been down some guys still
Without Zack LaVine this might be the last game without him Nicola vich also out it’s been kind of strange I I did jump off the Kobe white train at the right time but his downfall has coincided a little bit weirdly with vich being out and Drummond being in kind of
Think the offense has just not been the same with the the paint clogger Drummond in there obviously vich can can space the floor much better so yeah low total here but I kind of like these Knicks guys that are left I’ll also note this game is on ABC tonight which I don’t
Know if you can really project more than 40 minutes why are they doing that to the Bulls is it on it’s on ABC yeah oh yeah which four Bulls man makes me uh makes me like Brunson even more and I don’t post many picks in our bets chat
On the Discord but I have hit on the the few NBA bets I’ve posted they’ve all been assist props and I did post one in there today Jaylen Brunson 10 plus plus assist on DraftKings is plus 320 I hit that one myself likeed that one a lot
Had 23 potential assists I think a season High playing for the first time without quickly EMB Barett in that last game AP talk to me Chicago and New York yeah if you like pain if you like being driven to to drink join me on on the
Sides and in total streets in the NBA it’s uh it can be very it can be very fun you go it’s it’s very streaky I will say that it’s very very streaky it makes you question your model and all of that you just got to stay disciplined stay
With it but the problem with the bulls right now so Kobe white I think still dealing with that uh wrist wrist injury and then he I think he uh rolled an ankle yesterday he’s probable he’s gonna play tonight but I don’t trust it and then out of gas a little bit playing so
Many minutes they literally I’ve been watching this and it’s they’re they’re such a like the most simple team and boring team right now to defend it makes it tough It’s teams just you know throw the sink at demard De rosan and if Drummond if Drummond can’t get it done
They’re just stuck they’re forced like literally like IO dumu is historically a very Yow a low usage player okay go look at his us usage over the past few games he is being forced to take a lot of shots um now he entered halftime yesterday uh after the second quarter
With like no fantasy points he did all of his work in the second half finally saw the ball go through the bucket uh I mean man he’s a he’s a tough tough play but the minutes are going to be there Javon Carter was a nice spark for them
Off the bench I haven’t even looked at like projections on this game but I I kind of think Pat Williams sits and it makes this spot really potentially interesting from a value standpoint um I think it was uh dalen Terry that played really well last night um and
Then go is that how you say his name he’s the one that got all the blowout run he’s a big boy down there clogging up the paint but again that’s like blowout only so yeah I I think Terry is a is a really interesting play and then
Javon Carter was a nice spark Off the Bench as well um hit his first few threes and then went ice cold but look like what they lack right now is that ability to stretch things out they have no ability to do that because no one is
Afraid of IOD dumu uh even demard to Rosen he’s not three-point shooter like Alex cruo has been C like they have no threat from range and so that makes them very easy to defend and now you have OG anobi that’s out there too like throw
Him on De Marta Rosen it has to be these peripheral pieces that get it done that’s why I’m interested in the Javon Carter the AO dumo those type of plays I’m off of Kobe white here um Alex cruso kind of a stocks guy I like my one counterargument against the Knick’s side
Of this game is I just I don’t see how the Bulls are going to keep it close I really don’t if they do it’s you’re going to have to have a big game from some of these like secondary pieces on the bull side or maybe DeMar rosen just
Finds that mid-range game I just I don’t see that happening against OG uh in this spot so I’m under on the Nick’s side and uh I have slight interest in some of the Fringe value pieces uh for the Bulls yeah pretty brutal spot for the Rosen going up against anobi who who playing
For the new team at home on National Television I you got to imagine manone OG is going to be as locked in as he possibly could be on defense with the Demar de R rozan assignment I’m completely off D rozan so much so that I was kind of looking to try to find
Another Bulls player to play but I don’t know hard to trust these guys it does get a little bit easier if uh if Patrick Williams sits still somewhat questionable to me I think Terry at 3.3 maybe some value I’d be willing to di my toes in if Williams is out what about
You man go in Chicago and the New York Knicks yeah uh so keep in mind the OG matchup like I mean the last matchup he was in against Minnesota and that wasn’t an easy spot right I think OG is a really good play I talk about some of
These like forwards I just want to key in on and kind of like just like keep a tighter pull on the forwards like he’s one of those guys Steen chenzo is on that list but I think he’s more of like the second tier guy I think OG is like
The tier one for sure one that I want to definitely get exposure to and of course a lot of people will want to but I think I just think he’s a really good play I think he’s good chalk so I like him here in this spot um I don’t think Josh Hart
Is a bad contrarian play that you could mix in there too uh but I do think OG is definitely gonna pull away from Hart a little bit here as uh the season kind of moves along I didn’t mind your Jaylen Brunson tournament play he is eight n
Now which is starting to get a lower price here but he is a contrarian option just going to be really low owned um and then the Chicago side um I know you talked about the idea of like hey I I was looking for someone else to get to
Besides the Rosen listen Andre Drummond is just soaking up all the usage at this point the prices have gone up uh I just don’t really have any interest in the Bulls right now um could you talk me into some Bulls if you had Patrick Williams out yeah maybe some of these
Other values would get unlocked but uh you know I’ll cross that bridge when I get there I’ll say this about Brunson uh put up 45 fantasy points in that first game against Minnesota with this new team um but it could have been a lot better five for 23 three from the field
One for nine from three-point range had the 14 assists season high and played 41 minutes they really don’t have another point guard that they trust miles McBride got the six or seven minutes when Brunson was sitting I think he’s gonna play big big minutes right now for this team especially on National
Television really high on Brunson he’ll be just a couple percent owned too so if want join the Brunson train I will be riding it tonight uh two more games to talk about Detroit and Utah up next uh this one has a pretty big total 241 Utah favored by eight and a half um
Out for Detroit are Monty Morris Isaiah Stewart we’ve seen AP Kade Cunningham remember we were on it kind of early in the season you just couldn’t get it going but the the usage the minutes all that stuff all the peripheral stats were there and uh in these last few games
He’s really turned it on they did get blown out by by the rockets in their last game but Kade still had a very very big role while he was in there I think he’s interesting I think Jaylen Duran’s interesting for Detroit and in Utah you got to consider them too going up
Against obviously a very very bad Detroit team so two awful teams here but pretty good DFS game I think AP what do you see Detroit and Utah yeah I mean this is the one it’s getting a lot of when I ran those base builds we were getting a lot of exposure
To this game and um I’m always a little nervous a little cautious a little hesitant in doing so because of uh you know you the Jazz we’ve talked about it it seems like every show that the Jazz are on they’re running a a very wide rotation uh very few players are seen in
Over 30 minutes but you’re still seeing from a pricing standpoint it still puts these a few of these guys in play so it’s really interesting what DraftKings have done has done with the pricing in these games and the last time so these two teams just played in Detroit I know
I posted the charts in Discord in the runer sports Discord but Jaden Ivy smash I think Kade Cunningham also smashed at home yeah a 56 piece like the back court against the Jazz with the size of Kade coningham and then jayen I Ivy just from a what he brings defensively he was good
Offensively in that game but then he adds the the ability to rack up you know Steals and blocks as well and if you just look at the Jazz that they’re Rota in Colin SE and Jordan Clarkson one of those guy and Keon George um like they’re going to have these guards out
On the quarter you know pretty much all game so it’s just a boost for a guy like Jaden Ivy they’re GNA need his defense in there if this game stays close um and No One’s Gonna Play Jaden Ivy um I don’t see anyone playing him at all so he’s a
Very interesting tournament play played 35 minutes 49 piece um usage was good his rotation very similar if if the game stays stays close and I think you know like they got their win and then the rocket the Rockets have just been good at home and they had their number Cade
Was ice cold especially the game just got away from them so I think the Pistons kind of rebound here um and and you know put up a good fight I’m wondering if we can trust like can we trust Alec Burks and what he’s been doing Off the Bench we talked about it a
Few games ago when they made this adjustment they needed Alec Burks a veteran they need his usage in you know his offensive ability to run that second unit and so it’s it’s earned him a little bit more run uh you know right in the 20 22 to 25 minute range in the
Matchup I don’t mind it but again if he’s GNA be Mega chock I there it comes with a lot of risk in a spot like this uh as far as attacking the Jazz um I don’t believe let me look real quick yeah so the the biggest change here is
Because we saw I think it was Walker kastler and Kelly o lenck we saw some of the we saw the bigs for the Jazz like Smash in this matchup but the Pistons did not have Jaylen durren in that spot they’re still playing uh Marvin Bagley
So uh matchup wise you know a little bit tougher there in the front court but Walker Kessler I mean he’s 5-4 Kelly Ock they’re 5-2 I think they’re multi-entry plays only like if you’re playing the the 15 150 you just kind of work these guys in again Lori Mar in I liked him
Last late but he uh his run got cut short for I I can’t remember who I think it was fonio that was was cooking so there’s just a lot of uncertainty and a lot of variance and unpredictability in this Jazz rotation right now um so it
Just brings in a lot of risk but uh you know J uh what was Jordan Clarkson had a triple double I think at 27 minutes last game against Dallas I could see him or Colin seon one one of those guys is GNA
Go off who is it I I don’t know DC I I I don’t know it’s going to be one of them though so uh good luck figuring that out uh flip a coin do whatever it is but I definitely think one of those guys is
Going to go off and I could see someone in the front Court going off but it’s like it’s just a very difficult rotation to predict right now uh even against Detroit I don’t really want to mess with Utah with their whole team healthy I mean just don’t know what they’re going
To do it feels like a guessing game and on a 10 game slate I feel like there are safer spots mango but I do like two guys for Detroit I think Detroit’s got two building blocks Kade Cunningham one Jaylen Duran the other we’ve seen Duran’s minutes come way up I know if
You look at the last game it doesn’t look like it but they got blown out but he still played well in that game or at least fantasy wise and against Utah I think like Duran they’re willing to play him 35 to 40 minutes now if the game’s
Close and he’s playing well and out of foul trouble I know that’s you know a lot lot of caveats but there’s not that many centers you can say that about he’s super talented he’s 6,900 I like him quite a bit and I like pairing him with Kade Cunningham
Because I think you know Detroit plays well it’s probably those two guys doing a lot of it and I think their minutes are tied together somewhat as well so those are the two guys I’m on for Detroit pretty much the only two guys in this game I like what about you meno and
What do you see Detroit Utah yeah I definitely don’t mind Kate Kate is a good tournament play again like a lot of people are going to play Mitchell and hwood right and if that’s the case I assume then you’re going to see someone like Kade Cunningham just kind of get
Squeezed a little bit right and I think Kade is a good play um you want to have him an mme formats I like the Duren call and another thing I like about durren is he’s playing Utah and I kind of want him in matchups where he’s gonna be like
Towards the wor more right he’s not gonna be pulled away I think it does in general just help him out he’s a super talented player sure do I worry about Walker Ker’s defense yes but Jaylen durr’s really good um I I think with the way that the minutes are being allocated
Now in Detroit we have to start considering some of these guys more and these are trends that we have to catch on early in this like like early when they happen and get on them as the price moves up right and then when the price
Is too high then we get off or we see a different Trend where it’s like trending in the direction where they’re spreading minutes out too much so I do like the Duran call I like the Cade call even don’t mind Ivy I think Ivy’s in playing
I also think Alec Burks is not a bad spot I’m sure it’s an Alec Burke’s Revenge game I forget when he was in Utah it was a while back but hey for the revenge out there for chap I don’t think it’s bad because he can fill it up and
Guards fill it up against the Utah Jacks right like it’s one of those spots the Bucks against guards Utah against guards I mean it’s just a good spot for someone like Alec Burks for 4-3 um as a value if you want to go there and you put it at
Small forward as well which I don’t mind so on the Utah side of the ball man I do like targeting the Detroit matchup I think it’s similar to the situation we talked about the other day like AP said sure in tournaments getting a Max of one
Is fine but that’s it like I don’t want to be overweight on these guys I don’t mind them getting mixed and matched in if a ceiling performance happens it happens and hopefully I land out in mme but in single entry three max stuff I just don’t think it’s necessary if one
Of these Jazz guys goes off I’ll look at the top the leaderboard and hope he’s just not on the winning team because I just don’t think enough ownership’s getting there where I have to do it in those contest all right let’s get to the last game of the night the LA Clippers and
Phoenix Suns uh obviously the big news in this one Kevin going to sit this one out uh should be the only significant player I believe sitting out here yeah all the Clippers guys are good to go and then it’ll be of course the Devin Booker and uh perhaps Bradley Beal show tonight be
Coming off the mega chalk game against Portland little bit disappointing in that one only 30 fantasy points across 34 minutes but the minutes have been there that’s kind of the the important thing I think with be going forward M we’ll start with you on this one Clippers and Phoenix 232 total Clippers
Favored by four what do you got for us yeah I I don’t think the pric is bad on Bradley Beal um I I see uh fan so actually I should mention this on FanDuel because this was one thing when I ran everything I was like I don’t know
If I’m doing that but uh chimzi metu was someone that was popping a lot at 46 and be’s gonna pop a lot at 65 on FanDuel um I think the 65 on Beal is way better chimi metu is just like one of those guys when he’s chalk like I just want to
Be more under on him like if I get some fine but I just I don’t think he’s like just in general a good play right like I at ownership I just don’t think he’s that good of so um I’m like if you’re playing the nights slate tonight dude
Chimzi meu’s ownership is gonna be insane I had a really nice hit on the night slate when I basically uh went way under on him and everyone was on him I’m gonna do that again tonight on the night slate for sure I know AP saw having more nights late content we’re obviously
Grinding the Discord all night long I hope be lower on chimi metu if I put a core up there you will not see a chesi metsu in there um I want to just be low on I think Bradley be is Bryce is 69 on DK it’s fine I think you could make an
Argument that if you land on him last guy in that’s okay but um I don’t know I like some of these other forwards that we mentioned in like that 6K range where I don’t know if I’m gonna get to Bradley Beal as much uh and I think he’s gonna
Have ownership um the Clippers side of the ball um it’s one of those spots where like we’ve been on the Clippers when guys have been out but um guys are all back right if you look at like the team it just doesn’t seem like a spot I
Want to get to I know Mason plumley’s back and I was curious what he would do and if he’d be like a cheap value we’ get on early wrong slate not right spot I think overall it’s really trying to make decisions on these Phoenix guys and
For me I just think they spread the minutes out too much where at the price of 51 and the ownership of metu I don’t love him and Bradley Beal is more just like a last guy in that I don’t mind getting but he’s not like a building
Block all right AP finish us off here Clippers and Phoenix yeah you know I I think think like part of the problem was they just were were handling Portland La last game and so I mean uh Booker and Beal they didn’t really need to do a lot and you
Saw like like bub had a game like met like that was a great match up for a guy like metu like I’m I gonna pay 51 for chimzi metu in this spot probably not I’m definitely with mango on that play I will say like Devin Booker this SE so a
Few things to keep in mind both teams Clippers Suns they they actually slower PA two of the slower paced teams in the league it’s a it’s a big total here I I think you know betting on offensive efficiency um you know to get to that number you know guys hitting three point
Three-pointers like Grayson Allen’s been lights out from from range uh then you got you know Paul George qu Leonard and you know obviously Harden on the other side Norman pow Off the Bench could bring a lot of Firepower but this just seems like so one two too many miles to
Feed for me on the Clippers side if I did have to play someone it would be Leonard or George individually um you know one or the other basically and then on the other on the sun side I will say like this does seem like a spot where
Devin Booker shows up puts the team on his back and makes us a game we we we’ve seen that multiple times I I love dbook in this in in spots like these No One’s Gonna Play him I think he’s a great large field tournament play and then I
Don’t hate Bradley Beal as well the usage was there um La last game the price is still somewhat Fair with no KD I don’t think he’s like a building BLX play but I don’t mind him in this spot so so really it’s just uh Bradley Beal
Or pass outside or no Devin Booker or pass and then Bradley Beal is gonna be someone I’m considering as well all right that is all 10 games uh we’ve got up toot coming up quick so we’ll get out of here in a minute but
Before we do we got to do the plays of the day we’ll go to you you first man gone who do you have for us Eiffel Tower play of the day yeah I’m going to give you I’m gonna give you two today how’s that I’m gonna give you two I don’t
Think I’m stealing anyone hopefully I’m not for one I’m going back to Brook Lopez we’re doing it again we’re going back to it we want to play centers against Indiana right it’s a matchup we always love to play I talked about these flat-footed guys that don’t get out to
The three-point line also what is Brook Lopez a special ass he’s a specialist at getting blocks right those add up quickly and in a game with a huge total there’s more block opportunities so 6K the ceiling is still nice we’re going for 40 again for Brook Lopez and then
I’m going with Jabari Smith again I really think he’s going to be contrarian with all those forwards that people are looking at and I think Jabari Smith is another contrarian forward that we want to get on tonight love both those guys Jabari Smith Brook Lopez man gones
Eiffel Tower plays of the day let’s go over to UAP gentleman’s play of the day who do you got yeah we talked about kind of position positional scar scarcity and uh how it could bring about some bad value plays um and then also you know Chu Jaylen Johnson who I I definitely
Like but getting off of that there is going to be a guy that’s projecting that for no ownership really really strong matchup his usage recently has been absolutely insane and that’s kusma 79 a as a as a run back with those Cav chalk plays that we all
Like good stuff I think we might go three for three on the plays of the day so far hopefully I’ll make it four for four with the mom’s basement play of the day gonna get us out of mom’s basement with a nice 60 piece of low ownership tonight
Mr Jaylen Brunson G to get a double double points assist carry the load for the Knicks on National Television Love Mr Jaylen Brunson tonight as the mom’s basement play of the day that will do it for us thanks for tuning in as always we of course have the upto lock coming up
Up to lock show coming up as we always do if you’re a member over at runer sports if you’re not no better time to join you use promo code New Gear to get 15% off and that will do it for this show I think a two game slate tomorrow
So I believe the show is off the air we should be back of course on Friday same time same place as always we do appreciate you guys tuning in hit the like button on your way out if you haven’t done so yet for AP for Mano and I’m DC we’ll check you next Time
1 Comment
You guys NAILED it with Haliburton and Jarrett Allen. Unfortunately I don't think I have enough exposure to do anything other than break even tonight but I'll definitely subscribe and make you a top priority watch going forward!