Action Network’s Jason Sobel and Ben Everill go 18 holes and give out their best bets for this year’s Sentry Championship on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
Subscribe to Links and Locks podcast here: www.actionnetwork.com/podcasts/links-locks
00:00 – Introduction
00:40 – bet365
01:30 – The Sentry Betting Preview
09:10 – The Sentry Picks
10:08 – Max Homa
11:58 – Corey Conners
14:05 – Cam Davis
17:10 – Russell Henley
18:15 – Denny McCarthy
19:23 – Rickie Fowler
21:52 – Sahith Theegala
23:20 – Tom Kim
24:22 – bet365
25:15 – Australia Story
28:24 – Eric Cole
31:03 – Collin Morikawa
32:45 – Odds Boost Pick
34:07 – Hideki Matsuyama
35:43 – Adam Schenk
36:55 – Sungjae Im
38:31 – Ludvig Aberg
41:10 – Xander Schauffele
43:08 – Tony Finau
44:30 – Presented by bet365
#pgatour #golfbetting #golf
Get our free mobile app: https://myaction.app/youtube
https://www.actionnetwork.com/
@actionnetworkhq
http://instagram.com/actionnetworkhq
Tweets by ActionNetworkHQ
Individuals must be 21+ to participate in sports betting and iGaming in the U.S. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER in the U.S. or visit: https://www.actionnetwork.com/general/responsible-gambling.
In Massachusetts, please call 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support. LiveChat with a GameSense Advisor at GameSenseMA.com or call 1-800-GAM-1234.
#AuthorJasonSobel #AuthorBenEverill
Oh that’s right we are back what’s going on everybody this is the lyxen locks podcast presented by bet 365 I’m Jason Soo from the Action Network he is Ben evil from golf bet it’s been a long December there’s reason to believe that this year will be
Better than the last at least as far as our picks are concerned we will get to our picks for the century in just a minute Benny before you say anything stop right there both of us are playing a little hurt this week so if you if you hear some coughing you hear some
Sneezing on this podcast I I we apologize I don’t know what to tell you it’s winter that said before we get any further got to give you guys a reminder the links and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 does not do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them
Than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boosts specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the
Incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Colorado Iowa Louisiana New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1 1800 Gambler or 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions restrictions all apply all
Right got through that stuff and now I can say hello happy New Year Benny are you hey mate how you going how’s everyone going out there hope you had a awesome holidays good New Year Etc uh contrary to what I’ve heard around the place so yes I have been in Vegas no my
Voice is not like this because of Vegas uh sadly I have not been able to even sniff a table despite being here for quite a few days and was in bed before the fireworks Extravaganza despite being on the Strip during the year eve and still not making it through uh but you
Know what maybe everything’s about to change mate maybe we’re going to get some absolute brilliant Stellar picks out there and start this year with a high with a bag and hopefully it pick some winers for the folks along the way yeah maybe and hopefully I think are the
Operative terms there now we uh look ready to start off with the bang uh 59 players it’s very interesting because this is the first of eight Signature Events on the PGA tour this season the other seven are essentially going to be limited fields from what we’re used to
At those events this one is actually a bigger field no longer is this the Tournament of Champions with about what 35 40 players it’s now a signature event just called the century 59 players in the field this week it’s actually bigger kind of makes it a a little more fun
This week still no cut uh Benny my question for you is do you believe that having these shorter fields and Signature Events will change kind of how you look at the fields moving forward and I’ll give the example Scotty Sheffer is right around five to one at bet 365
Right now if this had been a 156 man field which granted it never is a caloo I get all that but if it was a full field I don’t know he’d probably be eight eight and a half nine to one instead do you have more of an interest
In recommending a guy like Sheffer in a shorter field at 5 to one or in a bigger field at let’s go eight and a half to one that’s amazing uh Jay so I guess you’ve probably been reading Benny and bets my column or whatever it is that
That you find at golf.com every week but I started this year talking about when to bet the favorites to bet or not to bet the favorite um essentially this season uh late last year we did the math and we worked out that had you bet the favorite every event it was 54 events
Last season on the tour you would have collected a tidy sum I think it was if you bet you know $100 every week on just the betting favorite uh you would have made a profit of over $3,000 despite laying out 5,400 so uh is that a theory
Going forward um and look I’ve come to the conclusion that maybe not because of exactly what you’re talking about we’re going to see favorites at shorter odds more often we’re going to see uh necess not necessarily the returning in fact it was only eight winners that turned that
That profit and the shortest priced favorite of those eight winners uh was plus 600 so already you’re getting unders on Sheffer this week on what the trend was last year uh look again you know me I love me some I love me some chalk don’t get me wrong as
You know but there it comes a point where it’s just too short for me and and in fact we’re starting off in that exact scenario where the top two on the board you mentioned Sheffer at about 5 to1 and you can get Victor hland uh the the
FedEx Cup champion around 8 to n to1 at most places as well uh I don’t think that either of them are the smartest pick if you will from the GetGo because of those odds uh I’m an advocate as you know of looking to use them potentially if you
Do think they’re going to play well look at the smaller investment at a first round leader and holding back uh and waiting until the first round in fact my advice all year will be probably on the favorite if it’s anywhere in this short short realm is just wait because people
I know you’re not always used to betting after the first round or after the second round but look you’re going to get the the plus 500 the plus 600 or the plus whatever after or two rounds unless they go lights out and streak the field
And if they do that well good luck to them right like that’s why I said you can maybe put some money on the first round leader if you want to pick that up if they don’t you’re still going to get value they might be two or three behind but they’re talented players you’re
Going to get value in the Chase look I I probably shouldn’t say this as somebody who spends three days every week going into the opening round talking about predictive elements and analytics and trying to uh figure out who’s going to play well and who the people out there
Should beted on that said look if if you’ve got a way of doing it if you’re going to be on top of things on a Thursday and Friday and you’re not well I’m away at work I’m at school I’m doing things and I can’t sit there and look at
A PJ Tour leaderboard and look at my bets the entire time but if you’re someone who’s got the time to be doing that there are so many times when let’s say Scotty Sheffer this week as an example starts out 5 to one somebody RAC out to a hot start they’re five under
Through seven Scotty Sheffer throws a bogey in there he’s one under one over through three he is six off the lead and all of a sudden he’s not going to be 50 to one but he might be six and a half seven seven and a half to one like 45
Minutes after he started playing and so yeah it can go the other way sure where Scotty sheffler Bird’s the first three and you never see that five to one number again but at those short numbers I’m willing to take a chance that somebody else goes low besides the guy
That you like at the top and just just wait yeah just wait I get it I know we spend hours every week doing podcasts and radio shows and writing up all of our content doing video hits and and telling you here’s who you should bet this week sometimes it might be better
To wait until they actually tee off as opposed to putting it in on Wednesday night before they start on Thursday yeah the reality is it’s very very rare that any player on the board any player on the board doesn’t some point hit a slightly higher price than they started
Right unless yeah the majority of the field is going to yoyo around like that it’s the beauty of golf betting you do get that value out there you do get those that that great movement and you can pick up a legitimate long shot or longer shot that can actually win and
Win well um it’s very rare that you see a football team go down by 28 points and win but you can easily get a guy who’s five six back after one round in a golf tournament win by two or three shots yeah uh so these are the things you do
You can keep in mind um obviously always you know gambling responsibly not putting the house on guys who are eight behind every week but but if you just play the field cleverly and smartly um I think you can to me that’s the way to play the favorites anyway put it like
That I know as I said just straight 100 every week on them last year would have done well might be a little different this year um given uh as as we said more Signature Events more limited feeld s um the certain big names at the top missing
Some some weeks other others not uh and and I I made a mind would say the rule of thumb for him was with the sheffler whatnot if they were double digits um at the start he might throw something on if they were under he would wait yeah that
Might be a quick way an easy way to look at it so if you can get a guy at 10 to one that’s a good favorite or better maybe you want to throw someone if it’s less maybe wait and see all of that said I am essentially betting numbers more
Than I’m betting names this week I’ll tell you what I mean by that in just a minute but as we do every single week during the PGA Tour schedule let’s get to our 18 picks we’re playing 18 holes we’re making 18 bets for this week’s the century opening up the PGA Tour season
And by the way I love being able to say that Benny it’s not well it’s week nine of the PGA Tour season we started back in September it’s start of the year it’s the start of the Season it just feels right again and now you were on the
First tea at caloa where you’ve been before I don’t know that you found the Fairway there the widest Fairways in the world even you can miss those but uh why don’t you start us off with the play yeah I can confirm I’ve missed that Fairway a few times uh post the century
Getting around in there that’s one thing I’ll missed this year have been to many of the centries over the years and and a lot of my piics you talk about the numbers I’m the same I’m sort of trying to go away from those faves find some a
Little bit of a still relatively chalky but with guys that I’ve seen play well there in person and and things that I’ve noticed with guys I have an insight into uh that being said I’m going to go with my first outright option uh one of the
Things i’ that has always been a a a staple of the winners in recent times has been having a great week putting I mean at the end of the day you have to get the ball and hold those Fairways as you mentioned are super wide the the
Stats do show oh look you got to be up there in St sced off the tea but honestly you and I or any handicapper pretty much could hit most of the fairways uh they are very generous so the real step that you need to be worried about is getting that ball in
The hole and making some putts few more than others and not not messing up your chipping around the green so I’m going to go for a guy uh who was sixth I think it was Str game putting last year and who’s just been come off a recent win
That being in South Africa in Max Homer uh he was third a year ago at the century um hadn’t done the the done great there before that but last year was different he has a 63 in the bag uh on that course uh I think that Max Homer is still
Building into bigger things we know he’s done well away from the majors now he has to do well at the bigger events uh at the majes and I’d like to see him do well and do more at the Signature Events to start with So based on his putting
And how he played in South Africa Max Homer is an option for me at about 14 to1 you can get him I think he makes a whole lot of sense Benny this week I I don’t love the number and again I’ll explain what I meant by playing numbers
Instead of names um I think there’s a lot of value in sort of the second tier this week once we get past not just Sheffer and havin but I want to get past the the homas and the moras and the oars and the klays again uh you’re you’re
Kind of bypassing a lot of guys with a lot of good chances of winning on this golf course but once you get past them there is some value I I’ll save my favorite play on the board uh who’s in that tier for for my last hole but as I
I get to the second second hole here I I’m looking at a guy who I think is going to have I don’t know if I’ll call it a breakthrough year but excuse me a guy that’s one twice on the PGA tour the same event each time the Valero Texas
Open and a guy that I think is going to have a massive year I don’t know if that means winning a major but I do think that Corey Connors is going to win a bigger event maybe a signature event like we’ve seen uh you know that we have
On PGA Tour now this is being the the first of of those I don’t know that this is the greatest course for Connors in fact I might like him better at the Sony next week than I like him this week that said I think he’s going to knock one out
Of the park at some point so I want to keep swinging I’m Gonna Keep swinging and I’m willing to swing and miss a couple of times if it means I can hit a home run with Corey Connor at some point soon and so again it’s more about the odds 60 to1
This week for Cory Connors and some books have them even longer right now uh more about that and getting some really good value than it is me saying I think Cory Conor is absolutely going to win this week I don’t know there’s a lot of unknowns this week we don’t know who’s
Been working on their games for two weeks straight and feels dialed in who’s been eating Christmas cookies for the last two weeks and it’s coming in 10 pounds overweight doesn’t feel great right now so with all those unknowns I’m willing to go down the board and play some numbers that’s the first number
I’ll play as Connor’s at 60 to1 I’m not sure I’m not sold it’s early in the year I won smash you or ham you for your picks yet uh but I think the points that you made in the wi scope are certainly true I think that Conor is the
Type of player that you know in 12 months time we could be sitting there going or even 10 you know 10 months time he’ll be uh a spearhead for the international President’s Cup team he’ll be you know in his home Home Country off the back of a big year I would not be
Surprised if that’s the case so whether he starts at this week not sure but I’m willing to I’m willing to to lean that he could have a big year knowing that that carrot is there at the end of the at the end of the road for that international team and speaking of
International team members I’ll go to Whole three with my long shot pick of the week and it’s almost like uh rinse and repeat from around this time last year where I’m going to say that Cam Davis is going to have a huge year uh look you can Jer at me if
You will because he’s an Australian and whatnot but I think there’s enough proof there that last year we weren’t stupid by saying it was going to potentially be a big year for him last year clearly he was Ill at the start of the year he had real problem getting over this the
Sickness for a few months the results were terrible coming off the President’s Cup confidence but as soon as he got healthy things skyrocketed from there you know maybe eight top 10 or quite a few top 10 to finish the year showed that he had the the stones to to move
Through the playoffs and get himself into this position to be at the century and other Signature Events started really well in the Australian Open a few weeks back before you know copying a little bit of the weather on the on the opposite course they played two courses
I think that Cam Davis is another player that’s going to take the leap The Next Step uh up again I’m expecting big things and getting him at 66 to1 this week I don’t know play he’s played once before and finished in the top 10 it’s definitely the top of cause that fits
His game uh I think that’s great value all right so full disclosure about five minutes before we started recording the podcast I am in a industrywide uh Fantasy League that is a a season long fantasy league eight teams in the league and you play matchups uh week to week uh
Very much like you would in fantasy football and I’m in the fourth round of my draft and I’m going back and forth and I got two completely different players I got Cam Davis sitting there who I really like think might have a little more upside maybe a little higher
Ceiling lower floor but I’ve got Danny McCarthy sitting right there who again completely opposite player from Cam Davis rolls in a lot of putts I don’t know that the ceilings is high but he’s very consistent and I went back and forth and I asked you and I want to make
Sure there are no red flags on Davis and you said no you said fire away and so I took Davis that was like I said five minutes before we started recording the Pod I might be regretting it already I’m not even sure I i’ I’ve looked back on
Every pick unlike fantasy football where you do mock drafts like I I don’t maybe there are mock drafts available in PGA Tour leagues I haven’t seen them so I I’m Flying Blind into this obviously I know all the players really well um I’ll give you a little taste of this by the
Way I have uh I started with the number six pick in an eight Team league Benny I know it’s hard without knowing the other picks but what do you think I’ve gotten Oar with the sixth pick that’s right I went ludvig the first one Tony feno
Ricky Fowler Cam Davis you hate it don’t you I love I love Cam Davis it’s a great pick but oh look he’s going to be a star one guy that’s not on my uh list this week but he is going to be a star there’s no doubt players are actually
Fearful of him so that’s a good pick that’s a good pick we’ll see we’ll see so yeah in any case we get to the fourth hole for this week and if I can play Cory Connor well I might as well pick his brother and ball striking Russell Henley who’s essentially the same player
I mean you want to try to separate Connors from Henley Henley from Connors one’s Canadian one’s American other than that they basically have the exact same stats and they do year after year I think Henley’s got higher ceiling with that putter when he gets that putter going it can be really good Connor’s
Doesn’t really have that Gear with the flat stick but he’s probably more consistent T to Green all of that said very similar players I will go Russell Henley top five he’s done it once before at caloa at plus 750 which I think is a nice
Number I was gonna say my memory I was going to start trolling through the results because I do remember him being in the mix one of the years I was there yeah uh likely back in the Jason day years probably what middle of the 15 16 scenario exactly and it was him just
Putting the dots off it so any guy that can do that is someone as I said you should you can look into this week and speaking of your man Denny McCarthy what a nice Segway into a guy who puts the dots off it bet 365 player markets you
Know the minus 120 you get the juice of the side better where they’re going to finish McCarthy is just sitting there at 29 for better it’s basically half of the field I do think he’ll finish in the top half of this field I I think that his putting is strong
Enough that that he can roll in you know more putts than others and that should so should keep him in the top half of this group um he’s a first- timer having never been there guys who go their first time don’t generally win but they can feel around and if anyone’s going to
Figure out the greens quicker than the other bunch of first timers it’s probably Denny so I saw that as an option a good putter only needs to finish in the top half to cash Danny McCarthy in the player Market for my so there is a ton of value in this
Market Benny U I think there’s a lot of value in the prop Marketplace and we’ll get some top 10 top 20s soon because there’s only 59 players I I just feel like when there’s limited Fields the the oddsmakers don’t adjust probably the way they should on props and so I think
There’s a ton of value there but I’m going to go to my favorite player finishing position bet for the sixth all Ricky Fowler has played this event four times in the past he’s never finished worse than sixth place Ricky Fowler’s finishing position at bet 365 is listed
At 2 second or better fire away I mean quite honestly if you were the kind of better that said look I don’t care about having a lottery ticket for an outright I don’t care about having a bunch of t i just wantan to I want to make my money
Back I wanna I want to double my money or at least what uh turn into 80% more because he’s at minus 120 as as our are all the finishing position bets I give me one bet that’s going to win this week Ricky Fowler at 22nd or better on a golf
Course where he contends every time he plays it is the smash play of the week for me again minus 120 you’re you’re not going to make a a boatload unless you bet a boatload but it’s a great play in my eyes me brilliantly across this podcast
I will move things around I’ll go to the seventh hole I have Ricky locked in for a top 10 uh same things that you said he you’re getting good plus money around the you know 250 275 even plus 300 in places for him to finish in the top 10
He’s been there four times been in the top six all the way you could even look to him top five if you’re feeling it the reality is he loves the he loves the island and he’s made for the island he plays well he plays well there he’s in a
Good mood there he he he just has the the attitude for it doesn’t give up like some others do in these limited events you know where oh I can’t win so I’ll just sort of ease back he actually puts the foot down and tries to score low um
You know and look I think as I said I’ve got him conservatively in the top 10 at the plus 275 I think like you said finishing the top 20 is almost feels like what is it the links and locks feels like a lock doesn’t it yeah uh and
You know I’ve got him in top 10 he’s finished in the top 10 the four times he’s been there so uh I think that trending can continue I think you know he used he’s the type that would get there early have a bit of fun play around I know things are different now
Because there’s kids family Etc wives but they’re still they’re still all there having a great time together they’re still they’re still in that great frame of mind and I think F will again perform well I I look I don’t think he’s going to win but I do think
He’ll be right up there yeah um contending and and in that sort of top five top 10 barrier yeah I I’ve got a guy here and I do have an outright on him just because the number was in my eyes ridiculous I I got him at 75 to1
But I will play top 10 ends on another guy who’s playing here for the first time sah fala who’s a guy that I like in general I mean I I just think he’s a really good player the one part of his game that needs some work is accuracy he
Just sprays it off the tea well guess what I mean you can miss Fairways at caloa Benny I don’t think siah is going to miss many Fairways this is a place where you can just essentially Let It Go off the te and you’re going to find some
Short stuff somewhere for him to finish the top 10 this week again against 59 players it’s only the top 177% of the field that he needs to be in he doesn’t have to beat 146 other players plus 425 feels like a really good number to step
On at that one and I will say whether you like the Gala or not whether you like uh some of your top 10 or not Ricky Fowler whoever you do like this week look at those top 10 top 20 markets because like I said it feels like they
Are not adjusted for what is a very limited field this week that’s essentially a third of the number of players that we see in some events during the PJ tour season yeah you’re getting good plus money in in both of those on certain players um definitely value there have
Have a look around and pick who you love for sure and certain I I’ll I’ll close the front line with a top five option I at only s of 5 to one uh and I’m going off what he was able to do uh I guess
Last year as well finish in the top five and it’s Tom Kim another international team hopeful someone who I hope will spearhead this the the team he did open with a 65 uh last year so you know first timer there 65 thanks for coming 67 and
A half he average after all well that I think learning the course as I said you generally this is a place where you play once you learn it you start to get a feel for it and then off you go I think he’ll be all the better for that and
Look if you want to have a double in the outright don’t be afraid because he’s in that 20 to something I believe uh he’s in that next TI that you get a little bit of value for what he might be able to produce I’ve got him in top five uh I
Think it was about five to one that you could get around to uh I like that as well um and by the way Betty um we’ve got a whole back nine to to still get to it I I’ve got a little story for you that it’s an
Australian thing we we’ll get to it in just a second but as we go to the back nine one more reminder that the linkx and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 does not do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than
With anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boosts specific markets your winnings and even parlays they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check
Out the boosts and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Colorado Iowa Louisiana New Jersey Ohio Ohio Virginia or 18 or older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1 1800 Gambler or 1 800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions appli
Before we get to the back nine Benny I’ve got to read to you uh an an AP story that came out this past week you are Australian that is not a fake accent as we mention all the time you’ll make an Aussie pick pretty frequently here on the Pod there’s another individual sport
But I feel like it’s relevant here cuz I’ve got questions all right Benny former US Open Champion Dominic team time had a brush with one of Australia’s most venomous snakes during a qualifying match at the Briston International on Saturday the former world number three was a set down to Australian James mccab
In a firstr qualifying match when fans Courtside spotted the snake security Personnel quickly arrived but the Umpire had to stop play as the Stak slithered onto the court to the shock of the players and fans fans I really love animals especially exotic ones team said but they said it was a really poisonous
Snake and it was close to the ball kid so it was a really dangerous situation Benny what the hell is going on in Australia they are poisonous snakes in the middle of professional tennis matches mate I think we’ve got nine of the top 10 most venomous snakes and 19
Of the top 20 most venomous spids in Australia it’s it’s one of those places we’ve got a few sharks box jellyfish blue ring drct P you name it we’ve got some intense Wildlife uh you know cut off from the rest of the world it’s an island nation island continent uh these
Things happen but uh look but you know you need this interest in sport mate the ten tennis is trying to gear up for their first major they’re the Australian Open they’ve got to get some some clicks some headlines so we’ll just throw in a couple of brown snakes a red belly black
Or whatever we can find and and chck it out there and see how they go I’m glad the ballhead wasn’t hurt or wasn’t bitten but you know I don’t mind it going after the odd yank too so you know I was trying to help out the Aussie in
The match that was good good news I I don’t care if I’m playing tennis that was in Brisbane I don’t care if I’m in Sydney if I’m in Melbourne I I’m playing a tennis match and I hear about that I’m like time out I’m gone thanks guys
Appreciate it I’m getting on a plane no snakes on the plane I I am not dealing with this country anymore like I you you get a crocodile on the court yeah I’ll pull its tail whatever you get some spiders out there we could step on them they’re not gonna be that poisonous if
We kill them St Snak start slithering around when I’m trying to play tennis see you later I’m out I’m not doing that just just check your shoes before you put them on in a sh it’s nothing for us to worry about usually we’re usually it’s all right yeah check your shoes as
With all these animals Benny check your shoes means at some point there was a time when someone went I didn’t check my shoes and I stepped in the poisonous snake that was sitting in my shoe something like that yeah that you know it’s been known to Haven but you
Look anti Venom is there these days you’re fine you’ll be great you just off the hospital pump you full of a pump you full of little you know concoction and and back on the court and night time if I wasn’t scared of snakes already I just
Don’t like them I scared of I just don’t want to be around them but if would bit me and I had to go to the hospital to get a Venom shot like no like I’m not going outside ever again like forget it I’m out okay uh let’s get let’s get back
To the 10th hole let’s play The Back Nine here I’m taking a good All American for my first round leader play forget the Australian guys they’re crazy I’m going with an American a Floridian this guy could pull a gator tail he probably did back in the day at my own West
Orange Country Club where he grew up when I mentioned on the Gimme the other day where he was 11 12 years old he was taking lunch money maybe other kinds of money out of the pockets of a lot of the members there but Eric Cole last year
Right 13th on the PGA tour in round one scoring average I get it the numbers are skewed because he was playing so many events but he led the PGA tour in total birdies in rounds under par in rounds in the 60s not afraid to go low oh by the
Way you’re going to have to go low if you want to be first round leader at this one probably going to take something in the 64 range 65 on this par 73 about eight or nine under Eric Cole can do that I guess it’s his first time
Playing there 50 to1 for Cole first round leader yeah look mate I guess what are we doing we’re doing this on Tuesday night uh this point and I know that um on Wednesday in Hawaii they I think they will announce whether or not he wins Rookie of the Year from last year he’s
In a dog fight with L Oar over that Arnold Palmer Arnold Palmer award I bet get that should he get that award I think this will be a very good pick I think he’ll be in I think he’ll be in great spirits and I think that he would hit
The ground absolutely running and would all of a sudden become a a a very good cand for first round later you know you know who’s going to win on Wednesday this pod most people are listening before this is going to be announced on Wednesday just tell us just tell us come
On well I I would like to I would like to reserve my job for a little while longer at the PGA Tour but I’ll just say that it’s apparently apparently and this is what I can tell you apparently it was a super tight vote um we know that L go
Is a superstar On The Rise and won the RSM classic uh but Eric Cole before was the only rookie who made it through to the top 50 to be in these uh Signature Events via that as well so he had I guess the the the quality the quantity
On the board versus the quick quality that that Oar put at the end so uh it apparently is a super tight tight race between the two and it’ll be something to keep an eye on for tomorrow all right I’m really the Lin I know who it is I I
Wish I could get a bet down right now because I I I can I can read your mind I can read between your words I I know who’s going to win this one but in any case let’s get to the 11 well so yeah I’ll go to the 11th and do my first
Round leader for you if you like um and look you know as I said I mentioned earlier that I’m staying away from the favorites and if you do like them this is a place you can look at them I’m not looking at them at all this week to be
Honest I think Sheffer hasn’t proven himself on this course just yet for the the low odds that you’re getting um and if if he does play well great get on him then after the after a good first round or whatever else because you know his quality uh the same for Victor holand
He’s never been better than 18th in three tries here and in those years there were only 30 odd players or 30 players so Victor hin hasn’t shown this is a course for him yet either um so I’m staying away from the two of them but there is someone
Else near the front of that board that I think is an option at better than his outright odds for first run leader and that is Colin Mara uh Colin is an interesting fact interesting character for me this week I could absolutely agree with anyone who thinks to go in
For him on on an outright pick because of last year he was dominating was killing it and then he had an epic collapse on Sunday uh after his new chipping style Etc came apart uh under the pressure of trying to win I do think there’s a sense of Unfinished Business
There for him and he theoretically you know obviously got the win L late in the year last year to get over the hump as well he could be the type that goes out from the front and and does what he did for the most part last year but he also
Could be a little bitten by that scenario so if you want to stay away from him I understand that level of thinking as well for me rather than jump in at his shorter rods for outright maybe look at him as a quick hot starter uh he’s had you know seventh and fifth
As I said runner up he plays well here first round leader option but slightly juicier odds is where I would start with with Colin marel all right uh 12th hole you’ve already mentioned Benny that uh you are not taking either sheffler or havin so you probably will not like this
Play but we were able to get bet 365 to boost some odds for us we did so on the Gimme this week uh or video show that I was doing with Spencer agar through the Action Network you can check your favorite social channels to go back and
Watch that show which is Evergreen until the tournament starts on Thursday morning Scotty Sheffer and Victor havin the two best players in the field the two favorites in this field both to finish in the top 10 we’ve got boosted from plus 162 to plus 176 I again think that’s a really good
Number close to two to one on both of them finishing top 10 in a 59 man field they’re really good at golf the course should suit them I mean Victor’s long iron should be tremendous around this place I know that his short game’s better than it was a year or two ago but
You don’t need much of a wedge game around these greens you can pretty much putt stuff so I do like havland here uh this week a little bit top 10 for both of them plus 176 yeah mate well look you know as I said I haven’t taken the favorites but I
Think it’s good value from bet 365 to put up the boosted odds there for you so with that in mind it’s something that you can take a look at uh I’ll leave you to that one and I’ll move to a top 20 player you I went to the plus the Plus
Numbers here I said limited field trying to find some plus money value uh one veteran that’s used to play very well that hasn’t lately but still has Good Vibes around the joint and probably should have a few wins there if I’m being honest is Hideki matama top 20 for
About plus 130 or so uh I think that all things being equal now I haven’t heard anything other than positive stuff out of his Camp he’s supposedly feeling better there’s no neck issue no back issue no whatever else uh if I am to believe all of that if I am to believe
All of that then he becomes value for the top 20 Market um you know so that’s one of those things take it with a grain assault believing the team of course they probably don’t disclose everything if eki withdraws after a round I’m going to be in Anno but look you’re getting
Value at the moment because of that because of the fact that he’s being so up and down with his with his injuries and whatnot if I believe the team the values their top 20 hium Benny he’s basically on my do not playlist I just can’t do it right now he he burned me
Too much over the last couple years look if he wants to play the next three months and play well and he’s healthy and he can prove to us that he’s worth our money and worth investing in him then okay prove it to me but I I am not
Just willfully handing over my money to a book and blindly hoping that Hideki Matsuyama is healthy this week I just can’t do it I can’t do it so all right we get to the and I respect that opinion yeah all right we get to the 14th all I
Haven’t made my top 20 play yet but again I’m telling you guys whether you like my top 20 here or whether you just find some of your own that you like the top 20s especially for guys outside that top tier of players you’re getting plus money on these guys and all they’ve got
To do is beat 39 other players there’s a lot of value here my guy has not been scared to play against some big fields he’s already got a masters invitation in his back pocket I believe for the first time played well enough to win a couple events last year just didn’t come
Through and get it done but Adam shank is a guy that I really like for this year I’m G play him for a top 20 at plus 230 this week which again I mean you’re getting more than two to one close to two and a half to one on a guy just to
Just to beat a little more than half the field basically beat like two-thirds of the field yeah don’t mind it um I think there’s definitely going to be one or two guys that are not mainstream in inverted commers in that top 20 and there’s definitely going to be some
Value picks out of that in those in those markets like you said have a look have a crack and enjoy a pick I say excuse me I’ll go to the uh 15th I’ve done quite I’ve realized I’ve done quite a few International team eligible members this week and I’m going to go
With one more here in a potential matchup that I found and I really like sunj M to be up and around the lead as well and I saw that you can get plus money in a in a matchup with him against Fitzpatrick um I take it take it out
However you like I’m not sure that Fitz um does as well on these type of courses where we’re going to need to shoot 26 under correct uh 27 under potentially especially with no wind really forecast uh I think J can go low has shown that he had you know can play decent here
Before two top 10 already uh 67 scoring average which remember it’s a p 73 so he’s nearly six under on average around this joint I think Sun JM with plus money matchup against Fitz Patrick is is a good one to jump on yeah I agree with you on Fitzpatrick he played well last
Year seventh place but look he does not like tournaments where it could be 30 under winning this event I mean he’s a guy that wants to grind out bars and have them matter like a US Open or Bay Hill I love him at Bay Hill in a couple
Months um I just I by the way just finished my oneandone strategy cheat sheet that I do every year you can find it at action network.com the action app 4,000 words breaking down not just picks for each of the tournaments throughout the PGA Tour season but Game Theory and
Strategies why you should go to different players depends on where you are in the standings against your fellow competitors a lot to think about instead of just blindly making picks so that is my Shameless self-promotion there we get to the 16th hle and I like L Oar this
Year I’m just going to go out there and say I I think he’s pretty good Benny um I don’t know about this bet this matchup bet head-to-head but I’m getting Oar at essentially a flip of a coin over Colin Mora both of them at minus 110 it’s oar’s first time playing this
Golf course Mora was runner up last year I might lose this one but again like some of my plays these are are more about long-term type plays if you give me Oar at the same price as morawa in the let’s say what 14 15 events that they’ll both play in
2024 I will be up for the year you you give me a hundred a blind $100 bet right now on a fourr matchup Oar against morawa every time they’re in the same field over the next eight months I will be plus money by the end of August and
I’m saying that right now I might go 0 and one to start this week but if you give me this every time I’m I’m GNA be winning money so oar is a guy that I’m not fading anytime soon I might not bet him I don’t love the number this week
For a guy that’s never played there before but I’m not fading him he’s just he’s a no f dei’s a no play for me right now uh oar’s a a a no fade for me I’m just not fading him and playing guys against him we couldn’t be
Um closer in the same wavelength there I think that yeah you might you might lose this one you might maybe lose this week but over the course of the year I I would say lay down M yeah you you’ll win more matches matchups than you’ll you’ll
Lose he is an absolute stud he’s going to be a St excuse me he’s going to be a star and I I think that yeah he he’s he’s going to be up there more than not it’s funny because during the fall I found a reason to fade him uh during one
Of those tournaments and it was in Vegas wasn’t it and I was all excited because he you know started poorly and I told you I’d figured it out I found the statistical anomaly and whatnot and then he just rocketed home without even trying and you know didn’t quite win or
Whatever but he was near he threatened enough to to realize that okay maybe the stats don’t even matter on this guy like he’s just that naturally talented he is going to play well pretty much every time he tees it up um I’m with you it’s
It’s hard to fade him it’s hard to fade him he’s got crappy numbers because he’s on one of those tears and and the books are scared of him just like the players are but yeah I’d write him if you could or at least just yeah don’t fade that’s
A good point uh all right my outright pick roll please it’s actually not an international eligible player unbelievable uh I don’t know but if we if we we around this part A year ago I I probably had I may have had this guy in
The same spot I may have or at least I would have had him in some slot uh but I’m going to go with a guy who withdrew early after the first round last year he’s a former Champion Xander chuffle for me is a great pick uh if you don’t
Want the favorite but you still want to go with some chalk he’s in that 146 to1 range uh look he’s only ever had one overpar round uh on the course way back in 2018 everything else is well under it’s a great scoring average his final round scoring average is 67 but it’s
Actually 66 for his last four if you take out the first jury play where he wasn’t in contention um 62 to win it when he won it in 2019 uh 2020 was second fifth in 21 uh and more to the point I think he’s able to get that Underdog feeling back yeah I
Think he’s finally not being spoken about as much not being talked about as an Elite Talent at the top of the tour you know we here we just talked about Le big goar and you know we we’re always hearing about Rory and Sheffer and hland
And and all this and all of a sudden Little Man X is back where he likes to be where not many people are expecting the world of him and where he’s not not quite the top Echelon that’s the sort of thing that gets his you know blood
Pumping that’s what gets his his goat up and I really think that um if he’s able to put himself in that mindset and just look everything that’s gone on WE you scattered gone around it a lot haven’t really discussed it much in depth with everything going on in the world of goal
Uh I think that it’s time for for a guy like chule to stand up and and show that you know don’t forget me I’m pretty good um so I really like the end of this week all right I like that uh I will go back
To as I get to the 18th all my last and final bet I’ll go back to what I said at the beginning which is I’m hunting numbers this week I’m looking for guys that just look to have a little too much value and I look at Tony fenale at 28 to
One and I know that the putter did not look great at the end of last season but the ball strike numbers still really good he’s got a pair of top 10 in four career starts here there’s this narrative I I I’m not playing him because of The Narrative of a month ago
He said he did The Wolf of Wall Street thing said I’m not leaving and said he’s stayed with the PGA Tour even though that’s a a nice you know hey he gets paid off for the Loyalty that’s a cool narrative yeah but it’s not really why you’re betting on a guy I’m basically
Betting because I think it’s an inflated number on a guy who’s got win equity in a short field guy hits the ball Long Way guy that’s had some modum of success on this golf course and again with so many variables we haven’t seen these guys in
At least a month if not more for some of them with all these variables at play I’m willing to just say hey you know what I’m blindly taking a few numbers and I’m gonna hope that one of them hits and and for me Tony F now is
One of those guys at 28 to1 I think that’s a really good number so I’m going to play him there Benny we cannot guarantee that all of these picks we’ve just made will hit can’t guarantee that any of them will hit we can guarantee that next week
We’re at least going to sound a little bit better and we’ve been playing hurt so our apologies on uh the voices little coughing a little sniffles here and there so um we will we will get that that ship Red by next week but we appreciate all you guys hanging in here
With us and for the new subscrib the new listeners hey we appreciate you a reminder that you can download subscribe rate and listen to the links and locks Best Bets podcast presented by bet 365 wherever you find your favorite podcast for Ben everil I’m Jason soble good luck
With all your bets for this week’s the century we’re finally back guys here’s hoping you hit the green that
