Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Robert Arguello, Nick Bretwisch and Spencer Aguiar discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Sentry Championship on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
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00:00 – The Sentry Championship Best Bets
12:19 – Course Preview
20:50 – Outright Bets
35:54 – Best Remaining Bets
40:00 – Rapid fire
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#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello
Welcome to links and locks the action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 I’m your host Roberto aruo and I’m excited to be joined alongside Spencer agar and Nick brwi as we break down the first event of the 2024 PGA Tour season it is the century no longer
The century Tournament of Champions as every player who finished in the top 50 on the FedEx Cup playoffs last year is into this event additionally every other winner on the PJ tour outside of the top 50 is in this event in all 60 players qualified 59 of them are here Rory meloy
Once again skipping this event and it should be a really fun event with a bunch of the top players in the world at a course with stunning views players can go super low it has the fun dramatic 18th hole power five that’s reachable in two where anything can happen and of
Course because we’re in Hawaii this week we get night golf for the first time in 2024 I could not be more excited to be alongside Nick and Spencer gentlemen welcome into the podcast and Spencer I’ll start with you what is your best bet for the Sentry this week I guess
Let’s just start 2024 off on a note where I don’t think all of us are going to agree because I have seen Nick provide content for action and I know he is not in love with the player that I am backing here but Sam Burns minus 125
Over Cameron young you can find that over on bet 365 all right right so if you listen to our podcast last year or watch us on YouTube Shout Out YouTube you would know that Spencer Agar was a huge proponent of Cameron young but 2024 new year new Spencer he’s fading Cameron young this
Week I’m excited to hear why Nick I know you’ve just got outrights this week what is your favorite outright bet on your card so far I will go with Jordan spe at 26 to1 to win outright boys night golf all right Jordan spe past winner here on the islands we’ll
See if he can get back into the winner circle for me my best bet this week is going to be on the postman JT Poston he is plus 175 to finish in the top 20 so it’s just the top third of this field and once again plus 175 with all
Ties paid in full so be sure to shop around as you don’t want to be a victim of dead heat pricing but before I get into why I’m F in with the postman Spencer why do you like Bermuda Burns over Cameron young who’s no longer your
Boy I mean I think that’s what happens when you lose Paul Tori on the bag who has been like historically more my boy over the years with all the years that he was with web so the divorce made me pick sides there I’m gonna side with
Paul Tori at the end of the day but you know I I think it’s one of those things that I always talk about miscut Equity being one of the main factors I weigh into my model unfortunately we are going to lose that here when everyone is guaranteed four days of action that’s
Going to provide this massive alteration in this slate it likely probably does decrease our projected win rates moving forward by quite a bit when we do get these limited field contests um we have a lot of wiggle room after going nearly 59% through a th000 plays so I don’t
Think it’s all doom and gloom but there’s a definite downside looming of having to survive random weakened chaos that does come into the mix but I still think that if we are looking for downside and and that’s something that I wait into my model a little bit you also
Need to look for the upside that comes into to play on some of these players just because there are going to have to be four rounds of golf being played so when we look at this particular matchup and and I’m looking for the downside to
Mix with the upside here it got me into the spot where there was one opponent that was the second most significant fade option I had that was mixed with one of my highest climbers that I had in projected upside for the good that he did bring to the table here so for burns
When I look at him I know the course history is going to leave a lot to be desired with the finishes that he’s provided but seven of his eight rounds at this tournament have shot under par I know the longdistance proximity is going to also leave a lot to be desired I’m
Sure that’s the one thing that Nick would talk about that raised the alarm for him when he was building his numbers but my model believed his capalo result are just being too negatively skewed for those reasons that I’ve talked about uh 67 and 69 over the weekend last year you
Get this heighten optimism for a golfer who ranked first in my model when combining projected total driving and weighted putting for kaaloa thought when you combine that with his end of season trending form that he did have after a rather slow middle of the season for him and then the weighted scoring potential
That he possessed for this track it just felt like this was the year where he was going to provide the best finish that he did have at this course that isn’t enough to jump into the mix if my model also doesn’t have the concerns around young so when he had his de climbing
Form from within 100 yards and outside of 200 yards you mix that with a putter that finished outside of the top 40 in my model on this particular green complex I just thought it generated an answer of two golfers that are going in complete opposite directions from a
Statistical perspective only a 2% Edge for me I I normally don’t give plays that are that small in the head-to-head Market on this show but Roberto you and I were talking about this before we went on air and I guess obviously Nick is going to give a very similar answer
Because I didn’t know where he was at before now if he only has an outright card I don’t think he’s found much value either just one of those tournaments to start the year with this limited field where there’s just not a ton to talk about unfortunately I’ve got a couple
Intriguing plays in the outright market and a few others that I’d like to workshop with you guys but we’ll get to that a little bit later in the show after we get through all of our Best Bets and our course preview but Nick why do you why are you intrigued by Jordan
Spe at 26 to1 this week yeah you you mentioned it earlier to the the previous success here like we’ve been like in the community DFS players gamblers everybody like that has been talking about Jordan Speed kind of finding his just lights out ball striking that we were used to
Seeing back in that you know 2015 2016 17 I guess even 18 range and that’s what my numbers are starting to think that he’s coming back to the long iron play is absolutely Elite we know he’s one of the best short game players in the world
Which is what I value here a lot is those long irons and you know within 100 yards obviously his uh his putter started to come back into form too which matters to me a lot here on these bigger greens and when you really take like his weakness it’s hitting Fairways it’s
Accuracy with the driver he kind of still sprays it a little bit he’s gaining his distance back that he’s had years ago it’s like if you take away his only weakness and that’s hitting Fairways I think this course fits him fantastic obviously he’s very comfortable here he’s had a ton of
Success he was second I think in his debut here right after he won the John Deere he finished first the next time he was out there back in 2016 third in 2017 uh I think he had a really bad sundate when he finished 9th in 2018 obviously
He went on a Hiatus there from winning on the PGA tour for a little bit but the form is starting to come back into play and he still navigated these courses very well his last two times out and now the boss striking is back where we want
To be I wouldn’t price him any longer than 20 to1 so when I see 25 26 to1 out there I’m going to take it I I want to touch on this topic really quickly before we move past this and and I’m curious to hear your thoughts on this
Nick so I’m not necessarily A course sort of guy like I like to build things out in a particular fashion that is going to be the event that we’re playing but one of the things that I just kept finding over and over again which would be a really strong coraly trend for
Speed here this almost looked like the easy version like different green complexes one is going to be Bentgrass one’s going to be Bermuda one is going to be extremely fast you have a slow surface here this felt like some sort of a austa national comp for me in my model
So I’m curious if you saw the same thing yeah absolutely when you kind of just look at similar course fits for me I mean that’s kind of why we play players that aren’t very accurate and hit it a little bit longer at Augusta and but
Have an elite short game so yeah I think that’s the that’s a good way to put it it’s a much lower scoring version of Augusta National I like that a lot I do too I think at Augusta you placed more of an emphasis on short game although I do think short game is
Important this week just as Colin Mory Kawa from Sunday last week or last year when don’t bring that yeah don’t bring it I even prematurely exit or check marked it on Twitter with like five holes left all hell breaks loose you had to start the year that way
Roberto so short game is important here we know that I would also say Bogi avoid is more important at Augusta and a little bit less of an a wait on par five scoring because there’re four par fives at Augusta instead of five here but obviously those are hugely scorable
Holes at Augusta National whereas a lot of the other par fours par 3s are really tough whereas here at kaaloa they’re not as challenging and you’ll have some other birdies built into the scorecard on driveable holes but nonetheless Nick I like the point you made about and
Spencer you as well about playing these golfers who take out driving accuracy and let them Thrive and do what they do best and I think that is reflected in my outright betting card which we’ll get to in just a few short moments but getting back to my best bet for the weekend it’s
Going to be JT Poston plus 175 to finish in the top 20 with ties paid in full if you listen to us over the fall over the FedEx Cup fall you might have heard us talk about JT poson a lot because he’s a guy who didn’t
Necessarily need to play in the fall he was in the top 50 of the FedEx Cup Standing so he got into Signature Events like this already but he’s playing the best golf of his career even though he’s not super long off the te below average by tour below the tour average in
Driving distance and driving accuracy but he is playing his best golf on approach ever and with the putter he might be the best putter in the world right now I think I would have Denny McCarthy Cameron Smith and JT Poston in my top tier of Putters in the world but right
Now Cameron Smith not in this field another golfer who’s had success at Augusta National and here just like John Ram winner of both of those events last year but JT Poston on a course where yes it’s 7600 yards so you might think well why wouldn’t you want a longer
Golfer than just JT Poston it’s because a lot of these holes at capala have hugely sloping Fairways where balls end up in collection areas and so doesn’t matter how far you hit it off the te you’re going to have a similar shot coming in as everybody else
And we saw that last year with Colin morawa who hits all the fairways normally even though these are huge Fairways he still found the Fairway but you get into a wedge contest with Colin morawa and he’s going to have leg up on you more often than not JT posten not as
Good of an approach player as Colin morawa no one else really is but he’s a much better Putter and at one plus 175 for a top 20 I think he’s a good candidate to back because not only does he have these Elite characteristics on approach and putting he’s been super
Consistent he’s playing the best golf of his life as I said earlier he’s gained at least a stroke per round on approach in four of the last six tournaments and has gained overall on approach in eight straight looking at Spencer’s model he’s fourth in this field in Strokes gain
Approach over the last 24 take the last 24 with what you will because some guys haven’t really played since the Tour Championship he’s also first in this field in the last 24 rounds in Strokes gain putting and he was third in the field here in 2020 in Strokes gain
Putting believe that was the only other time he played at this event and as a result he’s shown that he can make putts here he played here twice he played here last year as well finished t21 also gain Strokes putting then as well he can gain Strokes putting
On the Moon it doesn’t matter where he is I like JT Poston because of this consistent and strong and improving approach play and who knows if we’ve even found his ceiling yet so I’m going to be backing him in some other markets as well as I think he’s undervalued
Throughout the board but before we get into any other bets Spencer let’s jump into the course breakdown for the plantation course at capala at capala here in laena Hawaii I always find Capal to be extremely interesting from a scoring versus statistical pers perspective like there’s really no way
You can look at past iterations of these contests and not immediately notice what has transpired here in recent years 69 of 76 players over the last two years have finished 10 underpar better I I think that’s important to note since birdie shootouts often have the stigma
Of this I guess I would call convoluting the handicapping process because they keep more players in the mix or at least that’s something that has been widely regarded out there and something that if I’m being honest that I I kind of thought myself with that the more back
Testing I have done on that though I’m not so sure that’s necessarily the case like yes you do get these random 200 to1 sort of golfers who take down some of these you know birdie shootouts to get to let’s just say 25 underpar better but there are
Some I guess I would credit it more to the lackluster quality of the field uh more than anything else like plus the poor initial pricing that comes into play with it on that golfer who did win at 2001 like it’s F thing when a 200 to1
Golfer beats a field of only a few stars like we’ve seen that before at the American Express there’s more room for or I guess less room for error to be had because of the minuscule difference when everybody is scoring on the same holes it’s another one you take into an
Account event like the century and then you deviate away from the connotation of this being a tournament that only allows winners from the previous year not that many extra people got added to the mix I’m sure we would have if if you’re the commissioner J Monahan I’m sure you’d
Love to have Justin Thomas minwu Lee here but it still propels the point that I’m trying to make that you have a very topnotch field here that is going to create this significant change that does add the win Equity to the top and kind of diminish things at the bottom so I
Think from a property standpoint Capal capalo was designed in 1991 by Ben kensaw and Bill core give these slow Bermuda green complexes and open Fairways that are pronounced from the second that you’re going to step onto the grounds we see a 12% increase in driving accuracy Roberto you’ve talked
About that already um you get this eight yard uptick for distance a lot of the slope in the collection areas there you also have elevation changes off the te uh those two factors will help increase the G rate from 65 to 79% I think when you hear answers like that of easy to
Hit Fairways massive green and regulation rates that surge for distance in the general for scoring it’s really easy to call this a straightforward test that has no bite but it kind of goes back to the point that we were trying to make of this being the easy version of
Augusta National at the end of the day I think there’s a reason why 11 times a non-american has won this event since 2002 and it’s a venue that really does accentuate particular factors that are going to correlate well with scrambling when you dive into the increase that players receive with their irons from
Both under a 100 yards and over 200 yards I think the general enhancement from under a 100 is the exponentially larger thing that I’m looking at just because that’s the bigger difference that you’re getting from the Baseline marks on tour yearly so for me that meant if you could produce birdie looks
When you did get a short iron in hand or the ability to salvage a score in some of those spots just because I mean if you’re missing Greens in regulation you’re already behind the eight ball so you better find a way to get yourself out of it when you do create problems
There that’s kind of the answers of what I’m looking for to walk out of Hawaii with the first title in the year because um there is this massive spike in expectation in areas that you don’t normally translate into being a birdie contest with some of those short game
Metrics I think that makes a ton of sense Spencer and going back to the Augusta National comparison a lot of similarities there and just I would think you move the most common approach the most common approaches from longer mid-irons to the short ones and the long ones given the increased number
Of par fivs and also one thing to keep in mind is the wind here at capala it hasn’t been very windy the last couple years which is why you’ve seen record scores on the PGA tour last year John Ram wents at 27 under cam Smith won at
At 34 underpar two years ago and set the PJ tour scoring record and broke the record that was set 15 minutes before him by two other golfers so you’re going to need to go low here especially if the winds aren’t blowing if they are blowing
It makes it a different test and so be sure to keep that in mind the forecast says he could see 20 M hour wins throughout the week so who knows what’s actually going to happen it’s in the middle of the Pacific so you would think there’s going to be some variance there
Potentially but keep an eye on it and if you have players you like to back in the wind or fade in the wind even more importantly be sure to keep an eye out for their odds on the board wherever you have a chance to find them uh but with
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A chance to touch on the course preview anything you’d like to add or are you ready to jump into the outright card no I’m I’m ready to jump into it I do want to comment though real quick as much as I did mention like fading Sam Burns it’s
More in the betting and the DFS Market I do like him significantly more than Cameron young so I am going to tail Spencer on that one did have a question for you guys for the inod potential play I said I wouldn’t do it this year just
Because you know I did post my Roi on a per golfer basis it was not good for this guy and for some reason I’m already getting sucked back into him but what about Tony F now and we’d have to lay 130 over Cameron I I guess I’ll take it first um
You know I’m probably lower than you are on Nick on fale this week with that being said when I’m looking at my model and I’m looking at the the the value differences that I have across the board like there are really very few golfers that you would say are let’s just say
Sub 50 to1 in this field that are anywhere near how much my how low my model is on Cameron young this week like it would be it would be Cameron young it would be Brian Harmon it would be Keegan Bradley like that’s the mix of how much
Lower I am on those guys then even if I am a little bit lower on Tony Fina I think at some point we’re probably paying a lot of juice and I I think I could even make the same argument with my Sam Burns play uh with it I I think
That we’re talking about very small margin differences but I’m kind of under the mentality and I give this answer every single week that I do a show I’m more inclined no matter what the answer is even if I am shooting for upside on a particular golfer I’m always looking for
A person that I want to fade and for me me Cameron young is that golfer that I am trying to take on in different parts portions of the market so uh I don’t have any takes of why not to make the play I just think that we’re very close
On value differences here okay yeah it did great out as value for me and then I look at just Tony fenel course you know course familiarity if you will he’s been solid there in Cameron Young’s a debutant in relatively bad form I guess like Roberto said earlier though these
Guys haven’t played in a while so take that with a great assault but I would have it Priced Right aroundus 135 140 so if I’m itching to get out of just the outright Market I think that’s where I was going to lean that’s essentially where I’m at with Sam burns like there’s
A 125 price I have him at about 135 like we’re talking about very small differences in the market Nick so you mentioned you have Jordan spe 26 to1 on your outright card who else is in your action so far this week first guy I like him a ton too and
My number seem to like him a ton Matthew Fitzpatrick 30 to1 and then I did go down the board a little bit Eric Cole 70 to1 I don’t think that’s a guy that I’ve ever backed in any Market ever DFS top 40 placements you know matchups I I’m
Not an Eric Cole guy but like he gred out very similar for a guy that I like a ton this week JT Poston so I’m glad you talked about him I figured you’ll maybe get there in the hour at Market so I’ll let you continue on Posting and then
Cameron Davis 70 to1 he is probably my favorite value golfer on the board this week I think it’s a big year for Cam Davis I think it’s a yeah I think he’s probably like my my second round pick in fantasy golf this year Spencer so let him stay on the
Board for me I’m going after Cameron Davis this year if you look historically at this venue also and I don’t have the numbers up in front of me right now but I want to say that there’s been and granted there’s a lot of overlap of who
The winners have been but I want to say there’s been seven winners from Australia of this event since 2004 giv or takes so I mean that bodess well for a guy like Cameron Davis who was possessing some of the best form we had seen to end the 2023 calendar season
Yeah and His short games on the rise and I think he was he 10th ninth or 10th here last year Roberto do you have uh last year’s placements he was 10th last year in his only appearance and there are six Australian winners at the Tournament of Champions now the centry
Since 2004 it’s a lock all right there you go let me take this one step further gentlemen not so I also have Cam Davis on my card this is all music to my ears um I so in this tournament um I have an overarching theme betting on guys who I
Think maybe we haven’t seen their ultimate upside who so the lack of form doesn’t necessarily scare me because I’m not betting any matchups or the regular placement Market bets just getting upside mostly on these guys and so cim Davis a guy who statistical profile for last year might be skewed a little bit
If you look at the overall PGA Tour stats because he was getting over that injury or sorry over that illness that resulted in him missing his first four cuts of the season last year I’d also say or sorry missing his first five cuts of the calendar year last year and six
Out of seven at one point and he’s a guy who has everything in his bag he is long off the tea not super accurate driving the ball but he’s a strong putter above average very good around the green and very solid on approach as well he’s a player
Who at 28 years old is in the middle of his Prime and if you look at how he fared in some of the big boy tournaments last year the PTA Championship he gained nearly three and a half Strokes per round finished T4 and he lost Strokes on
The greens that week if he just gained Strokes putting there’s a chance that he could have been right in that conversation with Brooks Kea and Scotty sheffler Victor havin he was three under par four shots behind second place at havland and Sheffer but he’s a guy whom
We mentioned in the fall has a lot of upside I’ve bet him at 200 to one to win The Masters you can get that out there pretty widely available and at 200 to one I think this guy’s just got too much talent in that type of a market uh kind
Of similar to what we saw with Windam Clark last year where he’s a guy who is potentially making that next leap and playing more consistent golf rather than being a little bit more sporadic so I’m a big fan of Cam Davis and I’ll keep rolling with it uh since I got into my
Card I also have JT poen outright for all the reasons I laid out in my best bet got him at 90 to1 so love the potential upside with him there we’ve seen shorter hitters contend here so I like his chances I also went with zahit
Dalala a guy who can be wered off the tea but we know that shouldn’t be too big of an issue although if somebody can find a way to miss these Fairways consistently if he’s not playing great it could be sahit theala but that’s why we’re just betting him for upside and
Then I also bet Windam Clark 60 to1 he’s just too good to be a 60 to1 golfer in this field I think overall Talent he’s a guy who’s gotten it together there’s no weakness in his game the one potential weakness is driving accuracy but once again that is
Mitigated here and overall I wanted guys who putt well because you’re going to need to get into that 20 25 underpar range and all these golfers I bet on are at least above average Putters if not significantly above average Putters so those are my outright bets I have a
Couple of guys whom I’m considering backing most notably Jason day 55 to1 is probably the first guy off of my card so we’ll get your thoughts on this Russell Henley 45 to one also in consideration so um we’ve got day and Henley propaganda checked off of your
Bingo card for our podcast for of the year it didn’t take very long to try to like immediately get us to jump into a wager that neither one of us has that now all of a sudden we’re going to want to put onto the card I also was very intrigued by Eric
Cole 75 to1 and Corey Connor 75 to1 Cy Connor would break with my little theme of backing guys who are above average Putters but everything else is very intriguing I know he’s not great around the greens either and then two other guys who kind of Just sh me with where
Their odds were today or this week Harris English and Lucas glver both 110 to1 they feel like guys who should be better fits here Lucas Glover we have to have our lab golf putter uh propaganda also here as well he we know had that Resurgence on the greens last year
Spencer I believe he was number one in weighted proximity on your sheet this week yes so that also made me even more intrigued in Lucas Glover even though he’s a shorter hitter off the T um and Harris English we mentioned cam Smith John ROM two pass winners of this event
Not in the field the player who most recently won this event is Harris English and he’s at 110 to1 I’m intrigued by those I might end up sprinkling each of those guys to win six units instead of the normal eight but any thoughts on any of those players and
If you had to pick one maybe who would you add to your card unless they’re already on your card can I uh can I just add in to Windam Clark real quick so I know obviously I know your answer so Spencer real quick in Illinois there is
A shop that is is laying 75 to1 for Windham Clark and that caught my eye I tweeted about that earlier like sure maybe he ended the season in po form but like Roberto said everything about his game is great for this venue especially you know the downside in him is driver
Accuracy other than that he absolutely pounds the ball the approach game and we talked about him a lot on this show in the the spring swing of things last year just how he was trending and I think you actually had a couple outrights at Windam Clark obviously had the the US
Open there and I think I was on it at Quil Hollow but the market in general seems to absolutely hate him and that scared me a little bit like he is a sizable Underdog across offshore you know the domestic Market to Cameron young and that’s what scared me and then
The book that I was looking at had 75 to one and then I see everybody else is right around that 55 to 65 range so I don’t know am I reading too much into it because I do have room I only have 83 units at risk I wanted just to finish
This tournament pre-market with uh just one at risk and I’m only going to take outright just because the whole percentages on the finishing positions are crazy and I do not like the no cut events obviously my success in the top 40 market and top 20 market and no cut
Events were not very good last year so I’m going to kind of let that mature a little bit but thoughts on Windham Clark just overall I thought for the most part the names that Roberto rattled off like I’m not on Lucas Glover this week I’m not on
Harris English I think every other name that he mentioned though were options that I strongly considered in the outright Market I think if you look specifically at Clark and day who probably fit this answer more so than anybody else you have these really high upside marks that are being found within
My sheet that are mixing in with these really low floor numbers so I think if you’re talking about matchups and I mean I’m out on Cameron young I don’t want to use him as the example here but I can understand why Windam Clark is an underdog in in a handful of these
Matchups because I do think think he has a lower floor that if the wheels unravel a little bit that things could fall apart but I think the upside is to be found like at a certain point you reach value on these numbers and I tend to
Agree with both of you on the sentiment on Clark and it’s the same exact answer I would give with Jason D like there’s the possibility that he implodes and I understand that and I mean he has a no new clothing sponsor now where he doesn’t even look like Jason day like I
Don’t know yeah not not a fan of that either not no shame on the company but he he just looked good in Nike I don’t know what what he was doing had a good year last year he should should have gave him one more year but that’s just
My my corporate head on sorry there go ahead I mean that was probably as as wild as is I mean you can’t really put this into a model I guess but that was one of the reasons why I got off of Jason day like I can’t imagine him
Winning in whatever his new brand is out there um so I I eventually got off of him but no like all jokes aside with it though I think Clark and day and players like that are what you want to be shooting for upside wise because we are
Looking at a board and this is something that we’re going to have to be very cognizant of moving forward this year these limited field tournaments while the hold percentage is going to be the same you’re going to have to put down a little bit more exposure to get to get
Some of your stuff towards the top of the board so like I’ll work into my betting card here as I give this answer but I did decide to take a super aggressive approach and bet Scotty shuffler I I moved my win amount down to five units instead of eight that’s one
Of those things that like I’m aware of I’m getting super aggressive here compared to what I normally do I never bet favorites in in these fields but it was one of those answers to where like Sheffer became a value in my sheet because I had him closer to four and a
Half to one as a true value and then you had these these little pockets and there weren’t very many of them but like Tommy Fleetwood Matthew Fitzpatrick Jason day wendam Clark uh Terell Hatton those five probably more so than anybody else where there were there there was value to be
Found on the prices because I do think you got a general overcorrection for one reason or another for Fleetwood it’s the lack of win equity for day it’s the maybe for day and Clark that would be there’s that mix and match of performances where things haven’t looked
That great lately but um I do generally think based off of that answer that the win Equity is going to move to the top so I bet Sheffer and I don’t have room on my card for that reason I got him at six and a half to one very early in the
Week at bet 365 in the enhanced Market I did take Tommy Fleetwood at 35 to1 that’s going to probably be the most aggressive card you’re going to see me build the whole year but I I just cannot help but think that this is the tournament that Scotty sheffler finally
Puts the putter together we have been and this isn’t even like an exaggeration when I give this answer I think for the last 15 months if at any point he would have gained Strokes putting he probably wins almost every single tournament that he’s teed it up for 33 spot Improvement
Inside of my model on these slow Bermuda greens versus his Baseline if we are looking for that potential of him spiking you add all number one ranks that he has in my model not going to read through all of them there’s 10 categories five of which is what I
Actually weighed where he graded number one but my hope is he’s working with Phil Kenyon he’s a putting Guru he has helped players in the past such as Brooks Kea really figure out that portion of their game you know we always talk about it and this is kind of the
Unknown uh quantifier here where like you can’t really attach a weight to it but players have not been in action some people overweight what that means some people underwe what that means I think particularly for sheffler it’s a positive that he finally got a break he
Got a chance to work on this putting stroke of his for the last couple months and I am hoping that he unleashes that on the tour this week because if he does and the winds remain a little bit calmer I I don’t know what number he could theoretically get to he probably breaks
The course record if he can put it together so um I’m going to be very aggressive with Sheffer and I know that’s a stance that most people don’t want to go to with this being the first event of the year with a golfer that’s
Sub 10 to one Nick and I talk about this all the time we very rarely get into these spots but I think with the lack of win Equity that I had in most of these spots or at least uh of an advantage that I would have in these situations I
Decided to go to the very top and grab the golfer who did lap the field for me in most of the ways I ran my model one thing to note with Sheffer even though it’s a very small sample size he’s played in this event twice so far he has gained Strokes putting both
Times also gain Strokes around the green and on approach and off the te as well and just looking at his data golf page from last year green everywhere around the green on approach and off the te the question is solely on his putter last time he played a golf tournament he
Gained Strokes putting snapping a five tournament streak of losing putting losing Strokes putting and guess what he won that tournament by three shots that was the hero World Challenge in the first week of December so he’s looking for his second consecutive win I know that’s not an official PJ Tour event the
Hero World Challenge but got to give him some confidence I believe he used a new putter in that event for the first time so if he brings that putter back it’s never lost and we’ll see just what a little bit of confidence could potentially do for Scotty sheffer’s game
And we know no John Ron this year so not a ton of players beat him last year t7 here one of those guys is gone and so a big opportunity for Scotty sheffler and maybe a chance to capitalize on him in the the First Market without another big
Alpha in John RAM and another one in Rory mroy who’s also not in the field this week I I do think that there’s a potential as we move forward and I and I think you added a really good note there with now Ram being to live and Rory not
Into this event you know if a player can start start start hot here which I guess specifically would be sheffler in this specific example I I think legitimately we could be looking at him three and a half four to one in some of these limited field contests moving forward
And like he will get priced out at a certain point if that’s the case but I thought he was a little bit over inflated with the price tag that he had and um yes he hasn’t lost with the putter yet and now he’s rocking his own
John ROM form of a beard it looks like so I don’t know bearded Scotty sheffler might just be a menacing force that is just gonna take the PGA Tour by storm one of the few people who grows out of beard and looks younger than he did otherwise um fellas any other plays
On your cards this week before we get into to our rapid fire I have one um I am very tempted to do an inpod play of either JT Poston for a top 20 or Cameron Davis for a top 20 I thought those were the two spots for me even before we came
On air and talked about this where I had value on in my model for both of those two Wagers probably if I was to directly choose between those two spots I do like the value on Poston a little bit better you search around in the market he has
Floated out into the plus 200 range for a top 20 at some particular books out there so that’s something to keep in mind if you are Price shopping the only other play that I will give for the time being though I did bet Eric Cole for at
Plus 450 for a top 10 I think it’s an extremely rare answer that a 35-year-old rookie could not only produce results out of nowhere but end up doing so in a fashion that saw him fail to crack the top 100 for distance and accuracy on the
Season it’s one of those things that if you aren’t long and you aren’t accurate it’s going to be hard to score on some of these lengthy tests but I think that’s a testament to how Elite he’s been throughout the rest of his bag seen what he’s done before this Hiatus for
Top four finishes during his past five starts um there’s that answer that books clearly seem to think that some sort of a regression is going to take place I just don’t necessarily think it’s going to happen at the course where there’s wide open Fairways to where all of a
Sudden this disadvantage that he had off the tea gets a little bit mitigated in in spots and and I and I think the elite skill set that he has with the around the green the approach numbers all of that jumps back into the mix so um I
Don’t know if I necessarily believe Cole is going to win this event but I considered him for a top 20 I thought I kind of would rather go up to the top 10 range just because I think these placement markets like this is what Nick and I have been talking about for feels
Like six months now they are Juiced to the max like there is really no value to be found and it makes matters worse that now all of a sudden you lose that top 40 replacement Market you lose in a lot of these events those 156 man fields to
Where you still had a juice Market but you know when you’re looking at individual player props on it you might have had one or two players that you had like that exponential difference for that made it worth putting a wager on you don’t necessarily have that in a 59
Man field no cut event where everything is so juice so h i it’s going to be a very slow start I feel like until maybe some of these things get either corrected or a book makes a mistake because I’m not looking to jump into these placement markets for the most part
Myself Eric Cole over his last three events the RSM classic the Zozo championship and the Shriners children’s open T3 T2 T3 only five total players beat him in those three events if there was no Christmas break no New Year’s break there would be nobody hotter than
Eric Cole right now um maybe other than ludvig Oar who stole his rookie of the year campaign with the win at the RSM But Eric col playing incredibly solid golf really consistent it I’m very much looking forward to him winning on the PGA tour I think it’s going to happen
And to do it against the big boys would be really fun um Nick I had a question for you for Cam Davis I’m seeing him with ties paid in full plus 150 for top 20 plus 400 for top 10 any of those either of those that you prefer over the
Other I would take the top 20 just cuz I’m more conservative when it comes to placement markets but yeah with the with the ties paid in full it give me the top 20 all day all right I think I’m gonna add an inod play on Cam Davis also playing pretty consistently had one
Little falter in his most recent start in Australia but other than that had a really strong fall and like we said bullish on on Cam Davis don’t know how long we’re going to see these numbers next to his name uh as they are this week so I’m excited to hop on him before
The market adjusts fellas you ready to do some Rapid Fire Let’s Do It All right so looking at the odds board I’ll try to get to guys that we haven’t talked about so far today we mentioned Sheffer we haven’t talked about Victor havland at all would you
Rather have a ticket on Victor havin at eight and a half to one or let’s say I gave it to you at 10 to one would you rather have a ticket on Victor havland at 10 to1 or two tickets on sun JM at 35 to1 and Brian Harmon at 35 to1 I’ll
Start you off first Spencer I don’t want to tick it on Brian Harmon I would rather have a ticket on sun Jim and leave it there uh and just take the one wager than Victor hlin at 8 to1 I have some concerns about havin I know he closed 2023 as the hottest I
Mean if we want to say Oar Cole him like those were the three hottest players in the world and havin Catal catapulted himself by winning the FedEx Cup Championship you know all the money that came with it with so I understand this answer I’m going to give here but I do
Worry about the short game a little bit he has improved at this venue every single time going from 31st 30th and 18th but I kind of think you’re looking at a spot that the next jump in in in on the leaderboard for him probably put
Some more in that like top 10 top 15 range I just think at the end of the day while there H there’s been an improvement and I certainly understand that with the short game I still don’t know if it’s necessary where it needs to be to win at a tournament like this and
If for whatever reason the win does come into play and he starts missing some of these greens and you know it’s like I know last year if you look at morawa and I I think we’ve been banned or I’ll GNA get banned from the show if I talk about
That ever again but morawa lost that event because of the short game woes that he put together and I just worry that with how much that my model weighed that at the end of the day that havin ends up faltering even if he does work himself into the top 10 leaderboard that
There’s going to be some shot that he hits that everything goes south and maybe he doesn’t get up and down from a spot where he should have if we’re talking purely like win Equity here Nick how about you I was going to say can I just take the sunj ticket and
Pocket the rest yeah yes yeah I’m not I’m not into Harmon um but we know my thoughts on Brian Haron but yes give me I like sanj at that number a hell of a lot more than I like Victor hin at 10 to one what has
Happened to me so far this year I’m out on Brian Harmon I’m out on Cameron young still in on Jason day but out on all these other players I I respect this this is a good a good year of Spencer I I feel it coming I did add that Jason
Day 55 to1 by the way um moving on we just mentioned Lou V goar he and Max hom are both 15 to1 these are two guys that I was very intrigued by this week and two players whom I considered adding my outright card didn’t love the numbers
Although I do kind of like oars honestly which one of these two would you rather have a ticket on at 15 to1 start with you Nick can I pass sure go ahead what what is the reason for the past because you like both or you don’t like both I have a
Hard time reading both and I just think the market is gone a little out of control on ludig but there’s nothing like you look at every every metric he has he’s absolutely lighting it up I guess if I had to choose give me L big I’ll bite I
Just I’ll take Maxa my bold prediction this year I mean I don’t know how bold it actually is I’ll say Max hom wins a major championship this season so I think he’s I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets off to a quick start here and and potentially takes down this event even
PJ tour radio was talking him up too that his game is in some of those guys that do the shows like play locally out there with him in California in said he’s just been lights out so I okay all right switch my answer give me hom thanks
Spencer you mentioned homus form one in his last official start at the nedbank golf Challenge on the DP World Tour and you have to go back all the way to The Travelers Championship when he missed the cut back in June when he finished outside the top 20 of any event on on
Outside the top 21 of any event on the PGA tour he has believe six top 12 finishes and his seventh place finish at the Fort net was his only PJ Tour event in the fall that was his worst finish in that tournament in the last three years because he won the
Previous two fortet championships especially the one in 22 in dramatic fashion moving on down the board Patrick kley and Xander shafley are 15 and 17 to one if I had to give make you take a ticket on one of those two Spencer which one would you rather have I like Klay
This week I mean I think this is another thing where I’m going back to a player that I do like I’ve been all over the board some players are in some players are out but um can’t lay for me was if we’re outside of Scotty shler here was
Really the only other True Value that I had on the board at that 16 to1 price if we’re looking at a golfer that’s let’s say sub um I mean I guess Hatton would have been the next name that was valued so anybody that’s like between above
Hatton like the only two values I had were sheffler and Klay so I think klay’s interest interesting I couldn’t get there but um I certainly understand why somebody did bite at that 16 the one price this what do you think Xander come on that’s my guy coming off like the
Best year he’s ever had putting to give me give me Xander he’s lit this place up I know he hasn’t I don’t think he’s he did win back in 2019 right before Co um but withdrew last year with the injury I’m I’m going back to Xander this place
Just fits his eye something there’s there’s magic with with him here and I love Xander shley so any chance I can answer his name I will go Xander Adan Xander there too you mentioned 2019 winner here 2020 T2 2021 T5 so tons of great memories at kaaloa
For Xander shafley all right moving on down the board we talked about most other guys through 30 to1 Ricky fers 38 to1 Russell Henley is 45 to one Nick which one of those two would you rather have a ticket on Russ my number surprisingly did not like Ricky at all
So I’ll give you a short answer here move on and again it’s a homer pick for me but I’m going Russ I’ll take I’ll take Ricky I I I think that what he’s put together at this course over the years is noteworthy for a golfer who did see a a resurgent effort
Last season on tour I I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s able to continue that Trend that he was putting together last year I don’t know if he necessarily wins but uh he was a top 15 sort of win equity play for me where Russell Henley
As much as I like him and as high as I am on him for this season and I think there are going to be moments where the numbers are going to spike and you’re going to see that within my model wasn’t necessarily here at a venue that resembled
Capala very different venue next week at the Sony Open one where Russell Henley has had a lot of success perhaps that could be a spot where you want to Target him uh coming up very soon all right fellas last one we’ll get you out of
Here on this one sep straa is 50 to1 Keegan Bradley’s 55 to1 Hideki matama 60 to1 and Justin Rose is 60 to1 as well so that’s sta 50 Bradley 55 Matsuyama 50 and Rose six matama 60 and Rose 60 among those four Spencer which one would you
Most like to have a ticket on during the offseason I was holding um this favorite golfer draft on Twitter everybody was voting on it funny enough Justin Rose got in on the action was trying to get people to vote for him on it and he got
By a couple rounds because of it I feel like I should pay back the favor from all the exposure that he gave me by retweeting the post there he’ probably be my second choice I I guess I’m not a good new friend to him I’m gonna say Hideki
Matsuyama um solely for the reason that if somebody in this range is going to turn around what they have been providing from last season I think he is the name that can get himself back to Vintage Hideki form with the time off um maybe more so than these other names my model
Wasn’t a huge fan of straa I know markets seemed to like him a little bit I was out on him for that reason butki was the one that at least had that positive uh trajectory for me inside my model four win Equity Nick what do you think yeah same
Answer for me I got him at 46 to1 on my numbers right now so obviously that that sample size is kind of all over the place based on what hidek we’ve seen lately but in terms of just pedigree overall give me Hideki in that match up all day yeah boom Boomer bust that’s
Pretty much what you want when you take one of these longer shot Wagers that are outside of 50 to one so I think if somebody’s going to you know randomly pop out of nowhere Hideki makes as much sense as anybody guys first event of the PGA Tour
Is coming up this week couldn’t be more excited about it I know you gentlemen have content out there other than just this podcast Nick I’ll start with you where can we find your work this week whether it’s on golf the NFL everything yeah finishing up the NFL
Season super excited about week 18 a lot of teams still have a lot to play for so it should be a really good Full Slate for week 18 at windsports outcom and then better gopod at better golod on Twitter with my man Spencer here really excited to get the golf season underway
As football season kind of winds down Spencer how about you so you can find me on Twitter at tof sports I will be providing all my usual content that I do for Action Network multiple articles throughout the week we’ll have a Wednesday article that’s going to be geared towards outrights moving forward
There’s going to be the inter tournament plays that come into the mix from Thursday night to Saturday night you can find me over at Roto ball I provide a lot of content there if you like any of the numbers that you heard on this show
Or want to dive a little bit deeper into the statistical backings this year and have a model that can work for you do have a model that I released there for anybody that’s trying to take their game to the next level here in 2024 so hope you consider checking that out and as
Nick said uh we will be starting back up again on better golf podcasts so um very excited to have that back into the mix super excited to check out all of that stuff this week um especially some of those uh weekend in tournament ads that you’re going to have Spencer
Looking forward to those and you can find me on Twitter Roberto a21 three you can once again find all of our golf posts on the Action Network go to sports click on golf you can find everything there I’m one of our golf editors so we are pumping out content excited to get
The best bet file out there this evening on Tuesday and we’ll have a ton of content whether it’s long shots first round leader matchups placement bets all coming out on Wednesday as well so excited to get back in the full swing of things as we’ll have more golf content
Than we did in the FedEx Cup fall one reminder links and locks is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary they believe that every sport should be epic every touchdown every game every point every play from the moments that are legendary to the ones that fly under the radar see
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Spencer is teoff sports I’m at Roberto a213 thanks again to everyone who makes this podcast possible especially our producers Noah neher and Matt Mitchell thanks for tuning into our the century preview and aloha
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Spieth has baby on board head not in game plus I will be there heckling him🎉🎉
J.day – L. Aberg – T.fleetwood – T. Finau – M. Homa – S. Theegala. Those are my Hot 6