😲PALMER BENCHED! | #FPL #GW21 SCOUTCAST | Andy & Seb | #fantasypremierleague

Andy and Seb look back at an eventful GW20, hatch plans for GW21 and take your questions. And yes Andy really did bench Palmer!

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[Applause] hello hello hello and welcome to another scoutcast brought to you by fantasy football out this is 100% the first time we’ve done this I did not forget to press go live we are we’re such professionals is the first time we’ve done it as always you are joined by me

And the FPL mode and we are also joined by Seb how’s it going Seb and why is your overall rank not on the screen hello mate it’s going well thank you and you know what I really appreciate that you didn’t just let s in the bath or something you know that’s that’s the

Usual isn’t it just Palm it off on me so you know what in the chat I’ll take it that’s entirely reasonable right um yeah my overall rank isn’t on the screen because it can only get worse from here right um no I think cuz we’re we’re we’re weeks away from from things that

Matter and we’re halfway through a week so I don’t think it was popped on the screen but I I we’ll see it in a minute right but we’ve got a match going on at the moment Liverpool Newcastle in which I’ve only got Trent so i’ imagine only get worse hopefully yours get better

You’ve got Salah and Trent right but some people have Salah Trent Darwin maybe Salah Captain so there’s lots of uh ranks to move around still and then there’s Brighton West Ham as well so if anyone like me is currently looking at a very nice rank that’s cool but I think

It’s important to remember that you know maybe it’s only going to go down from here but hopefully stay above where it was you know last week and we’ll be fine and speaking of speaking of very good ranks FPL CH is in the chat who is currently second in the world so hello

To you dude and obviously you know it’s a big he obviously watches this every week and that’s why he’s second in the world that you we’re we’re we’re doing okay but you you know what you know what’s legit as well obviously because fbl CH or J however pronounce that I’m

Going to go with chai but what’s legit is already got an FPL chai handle cuz often you know if you’re second in the world or whatever you’re you’re someone who plays FPL but maybe not maybe not watching YouTube and then you’re second in the world and you’re like oh I should

I should create a thing already got one that means you’re already that’s that’s impressive played for on got you know not just not just tuning in every now and again and hoping for the best exactly but we’re all cheering for you mate if you’re second at the moment I’m

Sure I mean the the Pix he goes for brilliant as well I’ve followed him on Twitter and he he it isn’t the template you’re not looking at it and thinking oh that’s like every other team he’s got loads of different players in there uh

So I do like the way he plays the game so it’s h it’s good fun to keep keep track him but uh people in the chat give him a bit of a you know bit of a wave for how well he’s doing so far now Seb we’re obviously halfway through a game

Week at the moment we’ve got like you said Liverpool Newcastle playing tonight we’ve got Brighton and West Ham playing not Brighton it is Brighton Brighton West Ham playing tomorrow yeah uh and then we’ve got two weeks until the next deadline and we’ve only got two game

Weeks in January so for the masses of football that we saw happening in December we’ve now got the complete opposite of that going into January where we’ve only got two game weeks not only that we’ve got players that are going to afcom we’ve got players that

Are going to the Asia cup and we’re not going to be maybe seeing them for three four five game it’s depend on how far they go this is a really weird time in FPL isn’t it and decisions I would say a are not what we normally do we’re not

Thinking I’m going to bring a player in and then it’s fine because you know I’m looking at next week we’re bringing players in and we’re having to wait for quite a while we don’t know whether harland’s going to be back there’s so many factors going into our like uh

Thinking at the moment isn’t there yeah I mean are we even bringing players in right because it’s a two weeks is until the next deadline where there are matches before then uh I believe we’ve got a graphic in a minute that’ll help me there get back up to speed but um so

There are plenty of injuries transfers whatever updates on Fitness that can take place unless for some crazy reason you are not Point not away from your perfect moves I would really recommend you hold off and I think we we’ll we’ll be doing another stream another video before the next headline comes around I

Should think um so we can talk more specifically about so for example salaon Replacements um I’m guessing a lot of people will be doing say a Salah down a sun down to get Harland so maybe you’re looking a little bit cheaper y your Elis we’ll talk about but I think right now

Like I say unless you’re really strapped for cash which I’m not sure you would be there are options especially if you’re making two transfers relax a little bit you know it’s it’s very it’s very New Year appropriate we can take a New Year’s resolution of I will leave FPL alone for

At least seven days maybe after a pretty intense Christmas period of it it feels like that it feels like a it’s a new year just calm down you know take stock and see what happens and obviously team value could go up a little bit by then but is definitely one of those things

Where you just kind of got to chill out for a little bit and actually just enjoy it because the busy times can get quite intense in FPL and obviously when you’ve only got two game weeks in January like sebs just said there take it as this is

Our winter break so it should be quite nice we’re going to be talking a little bit about our point so far this week uh one of us has done very well one of us has done okay then we’re going to be looking at the over and unders so far

Over the Christmas break so we can actually have a bit of a chat about who seems to be overperforming who seems to be underperforming which does help people with their moves that they’re thinking about making we’ve got Lego man’s fixtures Lego mané is absolutely brilliant in terms of the graphics he

Does for fixtures so we’ve got one of his to show you how long there is between game weeks and the fact that like seba luded to just a minute ago that there are actually some games in between as well with FA Cup and carabar

Cup as well and then we’re going to do a bit of a Q&A at the end so it should be it’s not going to be an overly long one tonight because as Seb was already said we’re going to be doing another one next week we start looking at our bus teams

And start looking at our transfers that we’re going to make as well and we should should have Rich back too now I’m very very happy rich is not on with us tonight because I thought that he still had garnacho in his team a couple weeks ago

When garnacho got a brace and I tweeted saying well done rich on your garnacho hall and obviously he didn’t get one got about 100 likes and then obviously I messed up and I’ll show I’ll show up my points now I benched Palmer this week who obviously got 18 points he tweeted

Saying well done Andy on your Palmer Hall which got about 350 likes so people obviously love the karma of it my week this week 50 points I’m at 97k at the moment for overall rank but I’m assuming that’s going to drop a little bit without having Salah Captain 50 points I

Have arola who’s still to play cber got zero Trent who’s playing at the moment who almost scored as well uh Pedro par with two sacka with seven richison with eight uh Salah who’s playing at the moment he’s my Vice Captain s with nine salanki with two Watkins with eight and

Alvarez who I brought in and captained who got 14 who could have got more as well but then obviously Palmer first on my bench there Mitchell also got six as well on my bench so this would have been a good week to bench boost but yeah so

It it is what it is 50 points somehow managed to kind of be on a gray Arrow uh but yeah Palmer first on my bench just just roast me Seb go on go for it this is your chance riches is next week I’m I’ve spaced you out go for it I mean we

Tried to help you dude like you even qu you even quote tweet that’s not correct is it quote messaged my was it my my reaction to you saying you were going to bench Palmer I like please don’t do that and you did and look it’s it’s what we

Were we were say we were saying in the aftermath it’s one of those decisions that yeah you’re an incredibly foolish man and deserve to have YouTube stripped from you but realistically it was your you were playing slanky right I I we say in a minute I been slanky but your

Choice was Palmer or Rich charison so it’s a 10o difference not 18 at least yeah and in terms of beforehand it probably didn’t feel like a 10 especially an 18-point decision maybe maybe four maybe five points like if if this swung four or five points either

Way you’d think oh fair enough you know they were both close in terms of picks I picked one I got it slightly wrong but has so often seems to be the way and maybe this is just you know because we remember these emotionally more than all

The other times it doesn’t happen but I swear every time there’s like a marginal decision it’s not a marginal outcome 18 points here or even 10 in your scenario is it’s huge man and it’s a tough one to take cuz it’s not even like you avoided Palmer thought he’s a bad player didn’t

Recognize he was on penalties or minutes or anything like that he’s in your team he just had a good team and you had to bench someone yeah and and actually this was my biggest worry with bringing Alvarez in was that having eight attackers with really good fixtures this

Week felt horrible because straight away I was like well next week I’m fine because son and Salah are going so one of them I’m going to bench anyway so it felt like this was just the one transition week where I was like I’m going to have eight good attackers I’m

Going to want to play all of them people bench sacker didn’t they people benched sacka people benched rich charison people benched salanki the the decisions were all over the place in terms of who people benched and obviously I went for Pala who ended up getting the highest

Score yeah but I did want to ask you quickly as well yeah because this is one of the things I was thinking beforehand and I know there’s so much Theory out there in terms of you shouldn’t play like this but one of the things I did

Think was EOP play Palmer’s got a much higher ownership than richison if I bench richison and those points are the other way around so richison got 18 and Palmer got eight wouldn’t hurt my rank as much as Palmer getting the 18 and richison getting the eight and in my

Head I was like look I’m so torn between these two should I have just played Palmer because he had the higher EO and take that decision out of my hands if that makes sense I feel you it’s risk management right but it’s not there’s a so I especially early on

When I started playing FPL I was very vly on the side of points to points don’t worry about EO it’s just pick the player you think is going to score more if you think two players are identical in terms of their points potential sure maybe then look at it I think hopefully

My players matured a bit now I still do believe that points of points pick points um but if you think people are close to each other in terms of what you think they’re going to score your risk/reward appetite does come into it and I think that’s the thing like you

Said there do I we we see it with captaincy I think more than team selection you go like oh well look I’m miles off if I captain a differential I don’t actually expect this play to out score say Salah most of the time but they might one time and if I gamble on

That one time I’ll get myself back into the race I still think I’m more on the side of like take your small marginal gains each week you know it’s a long season build up climb the ranks you don’t need to have the big jump in one week but it can definitely be a

Temptation and I I feel why people would go for it and then in your position it’s kind of the opposite right it’s more about protecting maybe you’re not sure who to bench so go for the like minimize your downside so if you get it wrong at

Least it will hurt less yeah but I mean ultimately don’t get it wrong that’s that’s the best one there I mean um ahmed’s just put in the chat just don’t bench the penter he didn’t take a pen he didn’t he didn’t score a pen this week

That’s the other big thing he makes a good point makes a good point but he didn’t score a pen he’s only scored three non-penalty goals this year or something so I think is it five and two of them were this week five pens and yes

So I think he’s got eight goals yeah off the top of my head I know there was a tweet uh like talking about the like under 21s and you know goal contributions in yeah was it it it wasn’t no it was this season of course it wasn’t the calender year and yeah

Palmer was up there but he was up there because penalties yeah the thing is he did actually deserve to be up there as well he’s really good but it can be tough you know when we combine penalties with like open play stuff but in fbl you

Know we know that penalty T takers are incredibly valuable and that’s probably a bit of why you because you know we we say that sanki wasn’t the part of this discussion for you yeah sank is a penalty taker he’s been playing more recently he’s nailed in that team that

Team have been looking good so I’m guess that’s why you did he Bournemouth had nine shots no salanki had nine shots what salanki himself had nine shots in that match oh goodness he’s drawn with Harland for the most shots in a game in the last two years or something didn’t

Harland do it against West Ham I didn’t know that I know their XG was decent it was like over like well over one yeah oh man I got a bit Jammy there then get to mine oh yeah yeah so it’s um it’s one of those things I I’ve almost now in my

Head I’ve started thinking oh oh it’s a goal l oh he’s good um that’s all right that’s all right look like it might be a Dar and assist but I’m not sure whether it was a shot or not but in my head I’m now thinking of Palmer like mahrez uh in

The Leicester season just thinking I’m not going to bench him oh I was offside and just thinking I’m I’m not going to bench him now he’s he’s just in my team yeah just can’t do it I mean like like there will be you don’t want to swing

Too far the other way there will be a fixture in which Bening him makes sense of course yeah but yeah he’s I mean is it one of those if he was like 8 n million would you have done the same thing cuz know like FL Flappy is like

Mass massively up on him in terms CU we were having that chat weren’t we about like I was like look he can still get rotated though Flappy definitely thinks he can’t and fair enough after that performance yeah but he thinks not only is he like 100% 90 every single week no

Matter who fit but obviously he takes penalties which I don’t think Flappy thought he would lose again I’m I’m unsure but fair enough got them at the moment and open playwise he’s been brilliant as well as he as he showed in that match you know three all three

Returns to open Play there so if he was like 89 million which maybe he probably should be with those uh with those those returns would you have benched him then no I don’t think I would have and that’s silly isn’t it and and and he the thing

Is he is an eight or N9 million asset the way he’s playing at the moment like he could easily be especially with on penalties as well so yeah it’s do you know what it’s just one of those things where I’ve chalked it down to it was a

Mistake I so most I’ve been a little bit on tilt with FPL for quite a while because I was but I was out with my family and I was like you know what I’m just not going to think about it too much uh that that can go one of two ways

Exactly you either were no longer out with your family exactly or or you just shut your phone said to my wife I’m driving home but and you’re and you and you the only one with the car so for yourself exactly yeah walk home uh but on a good

Note you’ve had an absolute screamer so far 78 points and you know what it doesn’t get good because the defense is obviously like everybody else’s defense but your front front at one point I was sneakily hoping that the defense would come in you know double Arsenal and

Pedro por imagine imagine yeah so talk us through it sure so you know the week’s not over and there’s some Jam so it’s a good score but I will fall from here uh Ry and go with one Trent playing at the moment uh only on one point at

The moment I think and everyone well most people will get those points Pedro porro with two like I say I felt unfortunately was the wrong word I was like oh no they conceded 3-0 I thought I can get a clean sheet there but it very much sounds like I didn’t deserve that

Clean sheet Bournemouth got enough got enough shots next year away soir it’s a pen to pen to Liverpool by the way um so yeah there’s there’s the rank drop um and Gabrielle again with one so him and Ryan not returning was a bit of a shame I thought that was an easier

Clean sheet ahead of time but again pul and put up if not just under Arsenal maybe even slightly more nxg or close it was like one and a half plus something so again not particularly deserved one after the fact so fair enough uh then yeah then the points come in the

Midfield so son Vice Captain Saka richison Palmer obviously played him who wouldn’t and then Douglas Louise we’ll come back to that Alvarez Captain which I think with my team made plenty of sense I don’t have Salah so very happy with that and then Watkins as well my bench was Johnston salanki doow and

Trippier who doesn’t start tonight and so really my decision was other than the capc which seemed fine was Palmer Douglas louiz and slanky play two bench one was definitely playing Palmer sorry Andy so it was Doug or salanki and good outcome I think a close decision and it

Sounds like an outcome that could have gone the other way right cuz sounds like slanky did plenty and Douglas Luise man I’ve seen that penalty a few times and I own Douglas Luiz in fbl so I’m happy but I don’t know if I’m giving that penalty

If I’m the ref like and it was one of those that if the ref doesn’t give it VAR doesn’t overturn it now I know that’s how it works right VAR is there to overturn not make decisions even if we think maybe they should and then he

Hits the crossbar so like I was very close to not getting those points so I will take my jam and of course you know there’s Gabrielle sorry there’s Salas there’s Trent which I do have and Darwin’s out there tonight sounds like salah’s probably scored a pen so I will

I will drop a little bit from about 17K I think I think I went into this week about 60 I Was 80 the week before 60 so you know if I if I hit about 50 it could be lower if you know Salah Salah H’s massive I’ll get hurt badly but anything

Around there I think is is nice enough yeah no it’s pretty good I mean 78 points you take that and obviously Trent see what he does for you tonight as well I we’re just salah’s just stepping up now to take the penalty and I’m sure J

Be jokes if he missed he won’t but it’ be jokes wouldn’t it be a lot he’s missed the pen got it sa yeah actually missed the pen missed the pen got it saved I’ve got Deaver on my bench so that’s my bench boost I don’t I don’t

I don’t deserve that oh my goodness me I mean a lot of people have got Deka so there’s points there I’ve got I’ve got Ry I think oh no people won’t play Deka it’s Liverpool unless you don’t have another go and they BL played araed Deka obviously plays Brighton yeah so I’ve oh

Man I mean what we we’re 20 minutes into a match in which salah’s already had a chance to score so he’s going to get a goal but that’s some Jam isn’t it oh my goodness Trent is the follow as well I’m so sorry oh really yeah BL over the that

Would that would actually that would have been quite a nice outcome because obviously Trent’s not 100o yeah that would have been quite a nice outcome for me S misses aen I guess we get an assist and Tren gets a goal I’d probably come out up on that somehow oh dear yeah that

Would be too lucky right well go let’s have a look at some over performers then bit like Salah is this is this a good time to remind people that I I did bring in Harland and then he got injured and that that hurt me badly so I feel like

Not that it works this way at all but I I don’t feel too guilty I could feel you haven’t stopped smiling mate uh right let’s have a look then at some uh over performers so far so is this this is over performers for the SE no this is

Over just the last couple of weeks is is so I think 18 I had a look at when we last did a a little scoutcast uh a little scoutcast um we’re not big people it’s just little scoutcast um and I think it was ahead of week 18 so I’ve done 18 to

20 obviously 20 is ongoing so this will change when you look at it tomorrow in the members area and I I would encourage you to do so it’s a good place but this is kind of just over Christmas who’s done well who’s done badly who should have done well who should have done

Badly also I have curated this slightly because I wanted to include about a dozen players on each of these there were some players who would be in this list but realistically were putting up kind of inconsequential numbers as in they’d only overperformed by a Time amount or they’ put up such a tiny

Number and it was an irrelevant FPL player that I thought it wasn’t great for our discussion yeah so the first one we have here is our as our overs um and I’ll happily throw back over to you to to go through that Andy yeah no that’s

Fine yeah so uh so on the list this is going in descending order so wood is at the top then alanga Palmer matus CA son foden Alis and I know we’re going to be talking about Alis next week garnacho salanki rashford Bernardo Silva and is

It Dy is that how you say it see it’s like the old M doties I know I would have said wrong I apologize it’s not the same pronunciation but it feels like a similar trap so I think I think we go with what makes us comfortable and then

Someone will tell us we’re wrong and we’ll change I’m sure people will tell us if we’re wrong uh so yeah wood and Al Langer at the top there Forest I’ve got no real interest in those two personally Palmer is next I think if you don’t have Palmer already I feel like he is

Essential in our teams like there’s not many that are essential but I feel like he is just make sure you play him if you have him in your teams that is not the um and then son and foden obviously son is going foden somebody I wanted to

Chat to you about very very quickly though foden’s obviously started to creep into a few teams a few people captained him this week uh fair play to Giani and AZ who both captained him mainly because they couldn’t get Alvarez but let’s not talk about that uh and

Foden obviously you know got two assists at the weekend 24 points have you captained him got any temptation to go with someone like foden if you get a red of Salah or some oh man you know foden is one of my my week spots right Darwin f

Uh Reis James they are players I I like to get to my team when I can I I nearly did so I had a free transfer I didn’t make one I rolled so I’ve got two now and that’s the reason why I’ve got son I don’t have Salah but I don’t have

Harland I know I’d want to make those changes two free transfers of that seemed very very wise given as well that I did have a team that could play because if if I’d brought foden in say for I don’t know maybe I get rid of son early that wouldn’t have gone well but

Maybe wouldn’t be a terrible decision up front probably Douglas Luise right probably spend some cash get rid of Douglas Lise who was obviously return me point points and have foden but then just be playing him over a bench slanky anyway so it didn’t really feel like it

Improved my team it would have improved my team but more than rolling a transfer so I think people who got him especially people for people who it made good sense brilliant pick great pick people who captained him lovely gorgeous one one fortunate assist one amazing assist but also played well enough for the

Fortunate assist to be fine right I thought he was brilliant so I I I don’t BGE anyone that at all and the only reason I probably wouldn’t make the move myself this coming week although let’s talk about that again is I think there’s a slightly tougher fixture or two and we

Can maybe go there again when Harland is back Alvarez goes to 10 yeah I mean foden’s probably safe isn’t he but his minutes will drop a little bit or at least he might not be playing the role that he looked so very good in this last

Week so I’d want a bit more information a bit more time and I think I think it’s Newcastle right next to if they get destroyed tonight maybe I’ll look silly but I think we can have one more game week to to consider it and so the person

Just below him in the table Al Lis or E it really depends on who we think have penalties are probably my favorite picks in that slot yeah so we’re going to probably talk about Alis and E next week I’m sure because you and Flappy are just obsessed with Alisa and a every time

We’re talking in the chat it’s oh when do we get him when do we get they’re so they’re so good they’re doing very well at the moment and obviously with respect to Palace they play for Palace who like I enjoy Palace like their stadiums lovely the the atmosphere there is

Brilliant but obviously I feel a lot of what makes them not stoke esque comes from E and Alisa which is why they’re so brilliant if you went and put them and I know City in the summer potentially looked up I think one of them if not

Both if you went and put them in the city team hey assumptions right but I think they would explode they’re so they’re such good footballers yeah they really are and it’s going to be intered to see who’s on pens because obviously Elis took a penalty when e was on the

Pitch but we just came on didn’t he yeah yeah so it’ be interesting to see I am more than happy for you and Flappy to go for Elis and have the same thing that happened to me when and I brought e in where he got injured in the first yeah

We’re Ed aren’t we we’re Ed mate you are uh so Alisa and E yeah we’re going to talk about those quite a lot next week I think gacho next up I tell you what gacho is completely nailed in this United Team now he’s 4.8 million the fixtures aren’t horrendous moving

Forward I don’t think he’s a bad enabler personally if you need to downgrade a midfielder Like Son Salah to go back up to Harland you could do a lot worse than garnacho I think yeah I don’t disagree I think it’s tough I mean I had Fernandez and

Rashford and then Fernandez again for a fair bit of the season I’ve not checked in on their numbers more recently rashford in fact appears here but has an over perform which maybe isn’t perfect with obviously as well much poorer numbers than gacho gacho is more of an over performer but has much better

Underlying numbers which is what do you want to see right rashford getting plus 1.33 on a .67 is much less sustainable even if he’s a good finisher than say G ato’s numbers there um and obviously Fernandez is is not on here we’ll see if he’s on the next one spoiler he’s not so

My only worry would be it’s Manchester United who are just looking worse and worse um you know it feels like obviously something might might be changing at board level but I don’t know if that fixes it for us at fbl not however the sweetener being he’s very

Very cheap and he is very good so yeah I think he’s a great move Flappy obviously had him a few weeks ago mostly as an enabler I think he did it to get sank and then didn’t get sanki and really hurt himself points wise which was

Horrible to watch but I think that’s the role has right if you need an an enabler if you’re looking maybe to bring Holland in you’re losing your salary and you need that cash guno is there for you I think if you don’t just because we have five Midfield slots and five good

Midfielders even with salar and Son leaving maybe he’s not in your top five yeah well somebody that has been doing well considering the position he’s in and how badly all the rest of the players have been doing in his position is dy at luten Joe brought him in and

He’s been reaping the reward since then but he’s been getting assists and obviously Luton have been fairly good at home in terms of scoring goals even against the tougher opposition I mean if you were on a wild card now and there’s a few people that obviously have been

He’s he’s got to be up there as a as a option hasn’t he for 4.4 million yeah I really like it it’s one of those I’m sure you’ve had this you know when you’re like you you see a player and you’re like I fancy that I should tweet

That and then you don’t and then they do well and you’re like oh well now I can’t cuz now I’ll be like oh of course you did Seb also it’s worth saying that for every one of those there are five that I should tweet don’t and they do terribly

Like you but I think you know so someone like Joe who you know not only not only maybe had that same thought but actually followed through so did much better than me yeah I think again it’s it’s a neighborly price right you’re probably benching him a lot or you’re using it to

Find funds elsewhere especially with big midfielders leaving uh for the month and us having you know your Trent even Trio seems maybe a bit Surplus at the moment I don’t know if anyone needs that money in defense but if there is a spot that makes sense I really like him man and

He’s so every time we score I basically expect to see him involved and watching the highlights I’ve not watched much life football over over Christmas but watching the highlights the other night when they almost came back and I think they ended up putting up better numbers

By the end of the match um despite ending up losing just everything was him man like literally in the same play as well he’d like put a cross in it would get cleared and it would come to him again to put another cross in but 20 yards further forward it was just like

Everything came through him which was impressive he looks a class above at the moment and and obviously the fact that he’s getting assists and things as well I think he’s doing well he’s not really overperforming that much either you wouldn’t say kind of the underlying stats are there so you’d expect this to

Maybe carry on it’s just you know obviously it’s looten isn’t it so it’s a bit tougher and there are players for instance like Charlie Taylor Who’s point4 less than him so if you’re freeing up funds and that’s where it is but I think he’s somebody that should definitely be on everybody’s radar we’re

Looking at underperformance next sent so underperformers on this list this is again over the Christmas period so sacka is top of the underperformers by quite a way as well like he’s he’s underperforming quite a lot uh jayus uh Janel Gallagher trossard not quite as nice a list as the over performers is it

Uh calber lean uh Jacob Ramsey Julian Alvarez adabo Ben rmer Martinelli and then Anthony Gordon I mean I messaged you didn’t I uh before this week saying that if son and Salah weren’t going to their respective tournaments I think a lot of people would have been talking

About sacka out this week not just because you know of what the fixes are anything like that because he’s just been underperforming every week basically and he’s obviously still putting up some numbers but the numbers aren’t really amazing and obviously then he scored this week but it was a tap in

And a 2-1 loss he’s he’s there to stay because we’ve got son and Salah what we have to worry about we got Harland to get in at some point it just seems like he’s a player that you know is on pens he plays for Arsenal Arsenal are going to be up

There or thereabouts by the end and obviously they put up good numbers I’ve got no intention of getting rid of him but it’s been a bit of a worry his stats haven’t they they seem to have regressed a little bit him and Martinelli in particular yeah I think I mean is this

Maybe just that conversation that we have so often which is where do you fall on the side of you know finishing versus chance getting Luck versus skill what have you and I think there is so in this table every team only appears once AP from Arsenal who appear four times with

Saka Jesus Tred and Martinelli now it’s worth mentioning this is just the top dozen and I did cut a few out so that may not hold true if you go have a look but it holds true enough to show the pattern which I think we’ve seen over

Christmas which is was the West Ham match wasn’t it where I think they that was almost as much as this is a stupid thing to say it was one of those losses that you almost don’t mind you’d very much rather win it but if you’re going to lose a match where you create

Comfortably over 3xg the other team get a very fortunate goal and a set piece and then of course sit in and defend but I think they would have done that anyway I don’t think game State really changed West Ham’s match plan all that much so I don’t think that’s necessarily a counter

To the XG argument although it is a good conversation I think that performance was fine I think if you’re artetta you go the only thing that was missing okay stop a set please set piece please but the only other thing that was missing was us putting the ball in the back of

The net however then less than a week later a few days later we see the opposite where they were either outperformed in the numbers or at least very closely performed by a team that are inferior to them in terms of quality and again they left with not the result

They wanted in fact they left with nothing and I think that’s where that’s the opposite of what I was saying it was funny they came so close together right that’s the result where you go you know areta might have lost his mind that’s where you go this isn’t good enough we

Didn’t perform well we didn’t deserve anything here it’s funny those two results and two performances can come so close to each other and I think the answer to your question about sacka and other Arsenal players comes in which one of those performances and results you think is more indicative of Arsenal

Going forward yeah I’m inclined to believe that the first you know they’re going to lose matches they’re going to lose matches in ways that you’d think how on Earth they lost that that they were a much better team or they should have finished their chances whatever you

Know me right Darwin and friends I’m I’m fine with that the second match not so much they didn’t look so good and actually funnily enough that’s the one sacker got some points in which is you know which is the way fbl goes if you start seeing them lean in one of those

Two directions then yeah fair enough I would understand wanting to lose their players and frustratingly the other end right I’ve got two of their Defenders Defender and goalkeeper and they’ve not been despite having the best defensive numbers in the league they’ve not been keeping the clean sheets either so some

Point you either cut ties and get lucky or get skillful at some point I guess there was a decision to make yeah and it’s it’s almost like they just they’re just regressing to the mean a little bit aren’t they they they overperformed so much last year Sakura Martinelli did and

Now obviously this year they’re kind of underperforming and it’s it’s just that kind of you know it’s variance a little bit isn’t it and it’s just the they are just kind of regressing to the mean a little bit we thought that arsenal were also focusing a little bit more on

Defense this year stats wise they are but obviously clean sheets they’re not so in terms of investing in Arsenal it’s kind of tough to invest in them at the moment I think it’s worth pointing out that what you say is correct but statistically regressing to the mean is

Obviously a thing but oh yeah there there someone’s good yeah New Castle oh really oh jokes oh think might be offside might be off fair fair fair fair I mean that doesn’t really change much for anyone does that I think either you have Trent and lots of people have him

Or or you don’t and coning fine um H what was I saying oh yeah so statistically I think regretting to the mean obviously is very much a thing but in terms of football overperforming in the past doesn’t mean you’re going to underperform in the future like these are humans playing football you don’t

There is no mean to regress to in that sense what we sort of mean when we’re saying that is like the underlying numbers are your expected level of returns and you should return to that you shouldn’t necessarily go far the other way so that over time it evens out

It does even out over time because people tend to overperform and underperform and you know all over the place to hit a nice mean eventually but in terms of predictive just cuz someone’s been overperforming you can’t predict them to underperform by an equal margin to level it out all you should do

Is predict that they return that base expected level so the fact that say arsenal are now underperforming isn’t explained by them overperforming in the past but is entirely fair enough when it comes to variance and how we understand over performance and underperformance to work and look there’s the psychological

Excuse me psych I can’t even say it the psychological element as well which I know I often try and dismiss I only dismiss it because I can’t predict it personally I can’t people might be able to but I can’t predict it and incorpor it into my decisions so I try and set it

Aside but if you weren’t an FBO manager if you were a real actual proper football manager the psychological element is is huge and that absolutely could be a big part of what’s going on with Arsenal yeah big time it’s really interesting looking at Arsenal at the moment because every week I’m like oh

Maybe I get another Arsenal player in I obviously got in Trent two weeks ago instead of um Gabrielle I was looking at Gabrielle for quite a lot and I was looking nice that’s gone well yeah I was looking at the fixtures thinking actually I think I might go Gabrielle

And I went Trent in the end and I just can’t predict what’s happening with Arsenal at the moment they’re really tough to invest in but but the stats are all there so there’s going to be some kind of uptick again and soon you’re thinking with the you know clean sheets

And with the goals but it’s definitely not happening at the moment I mean I guess the thing to try and be more succin than I’ve been so far the thing to mention here is that this is all backwards looking we’re saying oh their stats have been good and they’ve

Underperformed therefore in the future they should do X well if what what has happened is that they’ve performed at a certain level but not got the results they inverted commas deserve if that knocks their confidence off a cliff and then they stop performing at that level there’s there’s no reason we should you

Know get points in the future they may just stop performing as well so unfortunately and I think we see this with you know Strikers like your darwins and friends who Miss loads of chances and I’m here defending them saying it’s fine getting chances is good missing is random but if that dents their

Confidence well then they’ll just stop getting chances and then yeah fair enough that’s that’s one you sell yeah exactly uh I think Trent just hit the crossbar from from the by line yeah pretty from his strong foot by line as well y y oh wow how did he do that you

Wait to watch the replay of that one I’ve not got it I’ve not going it live I catch it later but that sounds remarkable yeah it was uh right now we’ve got some fixtures to show you here so this is Lego mané again if you don’t

Follow Lego mané make sure you do every year he brings out some amazing graphics for for um for FPL and they’re really worth looking at so this is looking at gameweek 20 which is obviously going on at the moment and then it shows you that for the next kind of two weeks until

Gameweek 21 starts there are the FA Cup and the caribo cup games that that obviously aren’t to do with FPL then there’s gameweek 21 which is spread over two weekends and half the teams play on the Saturday and Sunday of the first week and the Monday and then half the

Teams play the Saturday Sunday Monday at the next week so gameweek 21 is a very long week then there’s some more Carib Cup fixtures as well in which Liverpool play an awful lot by the way and then there’s gameweek 22 and gameweek 23 which is across one week so the fixtures

Are all over the place at the moment but it’s just worth looking at this in terms of I see a lot of people at the moment saying oh salah’s going down do I need to get rid of Salah now do I need to get somebody else in and I’m just looking at

This and thinking so much can happen in these weeks moving forward I would not like you said at the very beginning of the stream I would not be touching my team unless there is a definite you cannot afford this player unless you make this move right now I will not be

Touching my team until 11th 12th 13th of January I I don’t see the point personally yeah I I thoroughly agree it’s it’s the transfer window as well now January is normal quarter of course and maybe it’s not going to affect the teams and players that that we care

About in FPL but but it could there are just there are maximum variables at the moment that could affect transfers already made so I’d say where possible don’t make those transfers yeah exactly and as we said at the very beginning of the stream as well there’s so many

Factors involved in all the moves you’re making at the moment so for instance we don’t know when harland’s going to be back kdb could be back like within the space of two game weeks that’s almost a month where he could then be back thought about kdb with a phing

Conversation yeah if say if harand and kdb are both fit to start you could then suddenly see well Harland starts kdb starts and there’s two spots remaining for Bernardo bodden Gish doku obviously Fitness assuming for them as well and I think that comes into that conversation

Too yeah exactly so it’s a awful lot you think a lot can change in a week this is a month where we’re pretty much going to have just one game week for most of January so an awful lot can change so just I as we’ve already said I just

Wouldn’t be touching your team until you really need to which is going to be in about two weeks time the way we’re looking at it at the moment is that obviously son and Salah are two players that probably need be replaced or potentially benched uh we’re going to be

Talking about that a lot next week in terms of who we would want to replace them with and obviously that gives us a bit more opportunity to see what happens over the weekend gives us a bit of an opportunity to think about who we do

Want to bring in as well but it just gives us a chance we want to make sure we go over it properly for you so we’re going to be going up over that with Flappy next week aren’t we yeah for sure I think we will focus on who you who you

Replace and how you need to plan hopefully with a bit more info too because at least in my situation Harland is key if I don’t need to get Harland yet that massively changes my moves maybe I Ro a transfer if I need to get harand then almost makes my moves for me

You know I need to lose son and I need to upgrade a striker to Harland there will be people in the position where they already have harand or don’t have harand but also have salar and son and so need to make a priority call there or

To make a hit so we’ll try and break that down a little bit also by the way I should have said this gameweek 21 you’re going to have to lock in your team by Saturday the 13th and your players might not play until Monday the 22nd yeah so

That is n days that you’re going to have to wait for your players to play and I so we have there’s lipo unfortunately we have City on the first weekend don’t we yeah we could get a leak for city city Newcastle is one of the first games on

The Saturday so what would be so there’s Arsenal we’re usually confident in them but there’s Liverpool Palace I guess you know E le say injuries so Palace Liverpool Arsenal all don’t play until the end Liverpool will be interesting with Darwin as well or even other midfielders cuz if Salah

Leaves you know there’s a spot up for grabs in that front three that is a very effective front three even without Salah so it’s going to be it’s going to be Mayhem that one and then gameweek 22 kicks off on Tuesday the 30th and game

Week 23 kicks off on Saturday the 3r of February so it’s going to be such a quick it’s going to go from we we barely got anything to all of a sudden two deadlines by the end of January February so yeah it’s going to be kind of Mayhem

Soon and then we’ve got double game weeks coming up potentially soon as well so it’s uh it’s going to be this is the quiet before the storm I feel I should call out as well cu asked Lego man earlier maybe it was my stupidity but the little caion signs you can see on

Here yeah those are potential replay dates so there are even more fixtures possibly to come in here we’ll want to look at the FA Cup and uh and Le cup I think as well fixtures that are possible in this time which again we can do closer to the moment to understand not

Only the fixtures that will definitely be in our thinking but the fixtures that could be in our thinking and then with all of that said there’s maybe a double I’ve not heard anything new on that 25 at some point we think we think 25 now

Yeah think so yeah and it could be we’re getting this double yeah and son and Salah might be back by then but they might not be back by then yeah so I think something useful would be to look at obviously there’s massive guesswork involved here as well not only

Because we’re not experts in those teams but also because it’s a knockout competition it’s guess work anyway but I think trying to look at the dates and their fixtures in those competitions it might be useful to have an educated guess of when they may return although we need to understand that that that’s

Not certain by any means yeah exactly so yeah so make sure you tune in next week won’t you um I’ve gone back to the home screen now so we can have some questions so if people have got any questions they want to ask us it’s just coming up to

Halftime in the Liverpool Newcastle game I was just looking at some numbers again I’ve not got it up so I’m having to alarm the numbers here but and live numbers can change of course they can but they’re not going to change much two and a half XG for Liverpool now 0. 75ish

Of that as a penalty so call it 1.75 Darwin had a few then oh then Trent from the penalty is you know 0.5 odd so you can’t both of those couldn’t have been goals so even if you want to knock this all the way down to like 1.2 odd they’re

Going to clear 2xg without a penalty and without the rebound from a penalty in a match they don’t score from that I I have been a very lucky boy I I would not be allowed to complain about The Misfortune I’ve had or or the missteps

I’ve made earlier in the season if I get away with this from what I’ve seen de brav has made at least three to four saves so he is going to be on for an absolute Hall at the moment so my bench could potentially have over 30 points on

It this week so we’ll see that’s so tough I mean you never would have played that one is just you would never played de Brava and that’s the nine times out of 10 de Brava gets one zero or minus points tonight and then and the 10th

Time out of 10 he doesn’t get three or four he gets 15 because he has to for Newcastle to get something out of this yeah it’s amaz you know when I play used to play um champ man the Fantasy Football chat man and obviously it was always based on simulations wasn’t it so

People used to do 10 simul and say this is how often this thing happens and then obviously you get the the one out of 10 that actually happens when you go to do the game week but it just feels like that in FPL as well like it’s your it’s

The same thing right just in chman we we can run it several times and I that’s such a good analogy for like what we often talk about when you’re saying like I predict this or I project that it’s like well we’re saying if you played

This a 100 times this might happen 59 of them but but we only get one of the times and the one we get who knows you just have to pick the most likely outcome and hope that that’s how the world goes yeah uh depra is on 10 points he’s he’s

On 28 bonus points at the moment uh lar says he went with Palmer bench too do you know what I mean all the best people went for Palmer bench do you know why because we’re letting everybody else catch us up a little bit that’s what it

Is um Dragon lot you were we should mention you were ahead of me I don’t think no no no in 18 you might have been ahead no I think we might have streamed actually when you were ahead but yeah you were like s had a few little points as well so

Yeah that definitely you definitely did allow me to catch up there I think you’re about 20 ahead of me now but 20 ahead is the difference between basically 100K to 20K and obviously we’re waiting to see what happens tonight as well but Salah missing the penalty definitely help well it helps

Both of us actually Liverpool are scoring man like what’s the more likely outcome when a team misses a penalty misses a tap in rebound puts up huge amount of XG in the second half what’s the more likely outcome they score four is the more likely outcome yeah I mean

This is salah’s last game as well so maybe they just take him off and say ah you can go now um right yeah col bugler says will players from Tottenham Liverpool be better or worse assets with son and Salah off interesting because I guess like will the team be better or worse worse

Because they’re losing probably their best two players give or take good point but in FPL I guess then the argument is well will other people firstly get pens say if Darwin got a penalty that’d be lovely wouldn’t it Charon actually if Darwin got a penalty just miss it so it

Wouldn’t be lovely but yeah Rison we think would be the pound to taker that would be very attractive I think he’s top of the list for people who don’t have but obviously the team performance in theory would be worse so I think it’s player dependent you’ve just mentioned

One there richison better yes Tottenham will be slightly worse but Ron will get penalties will get slightly more assured minutes probably now as long as he doesn’t go out left which would be I think quite a big problem if he keeps that Striker role I think it’s good for

Him whereas oh gosh I don’t know maybe Trent Salah leaving doesn’t give Trent more minutes a better position any more set pieces it just removes one of the best people he can assist from the team so in theory Trent slightly worse yeah and actually there’s a lot of players

That people aren’t even thinking about so for instance man united are losing Onana and they’ve got be inder who’s coming in who’s the Turkish goalkeeper we’re we’re stopping Onana going because we want to play him in the next game because we really don’t trust the young lad that’s coming in so what V

Of confidence for that I know exactly imagine trying to spin that to him in the dressing room I I there’s a lot of not so much this week full faith my friend full faith my mate messaged me the other day and said I’ve got he said

Um is this the last game before Salah goes I said oh yeah there’s Asian cup as well so son goes hang goes and he went oh I’ve got all of those and I was like we’ve not mentioned hang that’s a that’s a good joke because he’s been brilliant

For wolves exactly so if you’ve got Onana hang son Salah like yeah it’s going to be an interesting time um last one kajer says should we not care so much about price drops and losing value on son and Salah by waiting for selling them so yeah so basically should you be

Waiting before you sell them a lot of people have quite a lot of money tied up in them as well I would have thought yeah quite possibly I think we covered it a bit earlier this scenario is obviously a little different to the usual answer of should we care about

Price drops in this situation I’m I’m struggling to see a scenario where you would make a move here because one of them was dropping yes you know they’re definitely not going to play but it’s who you’re going to bring in for them and usually you might say oh there are fixtures or

There’s two weeks until a thing but I need I have not point no and I have to make this move so I have to gamble but in this scenario you’re probably making two transfers even if one of them for a hit even if you’re just making one there

Are so many options you can make with that one transfer that a 0.1 and 0.2 swing doesn’t seem to close you off too much you can probably still get Harland if you want him you can probably still get a midfielder of similar ability and value no matter what yeah no no exactly

I do I completely agree with you there right chat thank you so much for joining us it’s reached half time and we’re now obviously we’re now actually leaving you we will be back again next week for like I said looking at all of our teams looking at uh Rich’s team will be onor

As well he’s now not allowed to mention Palmer he’s missed his chance he had his window he decided not to come on tonight so uh unfortunately he won’t be able to talk about it next week we uh we will be talking a bit more about our teams in-

Depth and kind of our plans moving forward as well for what is going to be quite a a quiet and slow January but still important obviously uh chat thank you so much for joining us tonight Seb hope you enjoyed yourself as well back back at it yeah I really did mate it’s

Been nice to have Christmas off just just with family but it’s also been lovely to be back with with this family here exactly uh so thank you very much for joining us again like I said uh we will join you again next Monday when Rich will be back and we hope you well

Happy New Year and we hope your 2024 starts really well thank you so much and we’ll see you next week bye-bye