2024 Sentry Tournament Picks, Research, Course Preview | 2024 One and Done | 2024 Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo provides the preview and make early 2024 Sentry Tournament Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

Mayo Cup One and Done Golf League: https://fantasygolfchampionships.shgn.com/
Get 20% off https://www.fantasynational.com/mayo with code “MAYO”

PME AUDIO PODS FOR REVIEWS

Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH

PME RAKE FREE DK GOLF LISTENER LEAGUE: https://bit.ly/24ToCPMEDKLL

RUN THE SIMS PROPS SNIPER PACKAGE (Code “MAYO” for 10% OFF): https://www.runthesims.com/mayo
Code “MAYO” 10% OFF at Ship It Nation: https://shipitnation.com/?aff=Thepme

Join Mayo Media Newsletter: https://mayomedia.substack.com/
Sub to the Mayo Media Network: https://bit.ly/YTMMN
Use code DOP at Prize Picks for a deposit match up to $100: https://bit.ly/DOPPrizePicks

#PGATOUR #Fantasygolf #DraftKings #DFS #TheSentry

SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
1:11 One and Done
4:01 Course
9:52 History
12:20 Field
13:39 Kapalua Stats By Player
19:30 Key Stats
22:22 Stat Model Results
33:10 Slow Greens

FACTOR MEALS — Head to FACTORMEALS.com/Mayo50 and use code MAYO to get 50% off. That’s code MAYO at FACTORMEALS.com/Mayo50 to get 50% off!

LUCY.co/MAYO — If you want to try Lucy’s tobacco-free breakers, pouches or gum, go to Lucy.co/MAYO and use promo code MAYO to get 20% off your first order.

Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH
Google: http://bit.ly/GooglePodPME
Castbox: http://bit.ly/PMECastbox

A Mayo experience experience Experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience golf season ISB back in Hawaii as you can tell by my very tropical shirt I just want to live The Vibes of Hawaii being up in the Northeast it’s not snow it’s been kind of a nice winter but every time that I

Get to just Cruise the channel guide and golf is on in January and it just looks so nice it reminds me that the nice weather is coming back to us not soon but sooner rather than later which always just fills my heart with a warm

Glow maybe as nice as the Warm Glow of that Hawaii son smash the like and sub to the channel while you are here I am doing my walkthrough today with fantasy national.com if you want to get fantasy national.com get yourself 20% off at Fantasy national.com Mayo link is down in the

Description as is the link for the DraftKings listeners league for the Tournament of Champions not the Tournament of Champions sorry the century tournament because that is what it is called right now but I do want to tell you about the oneand done the race

For the Mayo cup it is back it starts at the Sony Open I’m giving away two free entries into it $200 a piece what you need to do it’s super easy you need to subscribe rate and review five stars to the pat Mayo experience audio podcast on

Apple podcast or Spotify you can just go into the Spotify comment section for this episode and just leave your name that works so you need to be subscribed turn on those Auto downloads as well I got a new contract coming up we need to uh boost up those numbers you can help

Me out on that front that’s what the ratings and reviews really help out for too but you do one on Apple One on Spotify you get two entries into the draw we’ll be giving that away on the Sony Open picks and bet show with Jeff fineberg in a week’s time I had

Mentioned I’m doing the major show with predictions with Jeff and making our predictions for the year that’s coming on Friday no longer New Year’s day cuz me and Jeff are doing our pick show for this tournament on New Year’s Day the other way to get into the draw for a

Free entry into the race for the Mayo cup is you go to Fantasy Golf championships. again link down in the description if that’s too much for you to remember and get yourself an entry or five entries however many entries that you can have up to five get yourself

Four entries screenshot me one of those entries on Twitter at the pme and I’ll put you in a draw to get another entry for free but need to have one already it’s already 37% full if you don’t get it now you are going to miss out on

Being in it and I always hear from people like two weeks after it starts how come I can’t get the one end done it’s like it already started you so just pay attention and make sure to reserve your spot and you’re never going to miss your picks if you’re worried

About missing your picks in the oneandone at Fantasy Golf championships. comom you can put in a text alert just put in your number and it will prompt you the night before if you haven’t made a pick yet to spend the 10 seconds and go make a pick anyway that’s my hard

Sell for the oneandone um the top 10 pays five figures this year everyone inside the top 10 makes five figures $80,000 to first place $800,000 of guaranteed money in the pool it’s the best one anddone tournament around it’s the least intense fantasy golf game that you can play it’s not

Like you need to make 800 lineups on DraftKings or try to figure out the betting Market no you just pick one guy per week can’t use him again after it’s done super easy super fun and it’s great to go in as a team or I got an entry

From my dad I’ve talked about that a few times I’ve seen that other people do the same thing that my dad and I split one of the entries and it just it gives us a reason to talk every single week for 10 to 15 minutes when normally maybe we

Wouldn’t do that so you know it’s six bucks per week technically it’s $200 UPF front but it goes through August so it’s great bang for your buck uh it’s a great Community tournament if that’s something that you want to do and there’s a big prize at the very top and anyone can

Kind of win because all strategies are kind of valid because it’s a very small sample and you need to hit a ton of winners in order for this to work but we are here to talk about the Sentry and talk about the course at caloa for the 25th

Time well 25th time in a row we’ve seen it in capoa and the 25th time overall uh it’s a plantation course it’s at Hawaii there’s no cut in this event it’s a super easy course despite being super long at 7600 yard it does play as a par

73 um Bermuda grass there are wild swings in elevation there is 510 ft from the highest point to the lowest point on this course for reference Wy next week in Hawaii has a 10- foot difference between the highest and lowest points on the course so keep that in mind that

When people compet to Augusta it’s not that players who play well at August are necessarily going to play well at caloa great players play well everywhere but it is the massive swings in elevation it’s the uneven lies the undulating greens these green surfaces these green complexes are massive if you play on a

Site like Underdog or prize picks and they do have pick thems of over under or more or less so you know to keep it fantasy for us if it’s a really low number not a low low number in terms of hitting greens or Fairways uh the fairways as my good

Friend Saul from snatch will tell you you could land a jumbo jet in there are just Absolut Ely massive that you’re not going to miss a ton of them unless the weather can crop up it doesn’t seem like that’s going to be the case right now but this is a tournament

Where weather can affect you I mean it’s in Hawaii it’s on the Pacific Ocean wind can come out of nowhere we’ve seen this shortened over time massive massive monsoons and rain delay shrinking this to 36 holes or 54 holes it’s infrequent that that happens but it can happen at

This course so weird lies downhill lies uphill lies sideways lies um and some of the the holes that say that they’re 534 yards as a par four those kind of play downhill so they don’t play that long at all uh and some of them play uphill to make them a lot longer than

They seem so you kind of have to you can as you can see on the screen right now that it’s something that you want to be a very good driver of the ball you need to get super hot with your putting and the greens are so big that everyone kind

Of hits a ton of greens and regulation so over Fairways over greens and regulation if in round one of this on Underdog or prize picks that they set those numbers artificially low just keep that in mind they probably won’t but you never know you got to catch them with

Your pants with their pants down whenever you can so keep that in mind uh going forward with any of this stuff Let’s uh go over to Fantasy national.com right now and check out I mean these are some of the players that I’ve seen so far again playing the one andone fantasy

Golf championships. comom to take a look at the course breakdown and the course conditions overall all uh we can take a look at caloa again 7600 yards does not play that long the hardest holes on the course are 1 two and 17 so you can kind of give it away but then

You can make it back up coming down the stretch as you can see in terms of how the distribution amongst the top 10 finishers go approach means more than off the te although we’ve seen players win this without approach being the number one thing you just really need to

Be dialed in from Beyond 200 yards and within 125 yard the middle stuff isn’t that important but you need to putt you need to drive you need to putt those are the two striking things that have always stood out to me over the course of time in this tournament year overy year where

Those are the two big things that really point to the very top of the leaderboard dominating on the power fives you got to do it as you can see here the whole composition and when we get to my modeling and how I built it out um you’ll see that there are three holes

From 300 to 400 yards but this is the range that I’ve waited because there’s another four from 400 to 450 but three of them play downhill so they actually kind of fall more in the bucket of the 350 to 400 like hell DJ almost DJ almost

Had a hole in one on one of these holes that was like 400 yards uh because it plays either downwind or a lot of the time or it just plays downhill in general that they tend to fall more in the scoring bucket in terms of proximity

Ranges of the 350 to 400 yard range so that’s why I have that one in particular pointed out there driving accurac 73% for the field greens and regulation 80% for the field so again they’re just massive both the fairways and the greens so again keep that in mind for those

Pickham sites proximity we kind of scroll back up I don’t know if we have the proximity for this one now we don’t ah stupid shot link it happens from time to time that you don’t necessarily get everything uh three putts is something I did want to take a look at though yeah

More three putts here than your average Tour event makes sense when you have like 100 foot putts very slow greens when we take a look at you know the course length it’s you know wind has been very calm to moderate we’ve seen a minus 33 winner and minus 27 winner the

Past two years sometimes when it gets super windy like in 2020 then it gets a little bit different there 2018 I think Justin Thomas won it like minus 14 um so just keep that in mind when you’re thinking about it like rough length doesn’t really matter because players

Don’t hit it into the rough all that often at this course the greens tend to be very very very soft they’re Bermuda grass greens it’s an easy easy course and the green speed it was up from a year ago was average year ago know velcro in terms of how slow it played in

2022 and we’ve seen that pop up over time it’s been faster two of the past three years but it’s still not they’re not fast greens whatsoever so we can take a look at the velcro putting slow putting towards the end of the show and always in the time codes if we can try

To figure out which of those players we want to go with tournament history take a look back over the years to see who has done the best in 2023 it was a John ROM winner this was the most devastating gambling loss I had in any sport of any day all

Year long morawa enters with a six-stroke lead he ends up losing by I think three Strokes by the end of it he had a like six stroke lead like going to the back nine and he just hit a wall it wasn’t very good it wasn’t very fun to

Watch Rah runs away with it obviously Rah doesn’t play in this tournament anymore this tournament has been very good to guys that left for live Rah won last year he left for live cam Smith won the year before he left for live Dustin’s a multi-time winner of this

Tournament Patrick Reed has won this tournament over the years so just something to keep in mind if you have a beat on which one of these guys are going to go to live maybe that’s the way the angle that you want to take this week but this tournament’s been way

Better I mean we’ll get to the field in a second but this is like the best iteration this tournament has ever seen in my mind at least for me to find it somewhat intriguing but after RAM on the leaderboard morawa came solo second then you have H and Tom hogi both came in

Third it was Tom Hog’s first appearance in this event Tom Kim’s first appearance in this event he comes in a tie for fifth Sheffer Fitzpatrick and feno tied for seventh Luke list tied for 11th spe another former winner tied with Cam young and sunjay in t13 sj’s played this

Tournament three times in in his career and he has come inside the top 13 every single time Patrick Klay has played it four times he’s come inside the top 16 every single time with two top five finishes Mor hows played it four times and never finished worst than

T7 uh you can see Max hom has now been here three times T25 T15 T3 for maximum H so maybe he’s trending towards the victory you can almost say the same I mean there’s no way I can’t bet moraca unless his odds are just ridiculous

In terms of being how low they are but I think that I just morawa H are who I’m leaning towards for my first two looks in this event but Jeff and I will talk it out on Monday and maybe he can sell me in a different direction um you know

Firsttime players in this tournament Rory is not playing I mean I suppose I should go to the field right now and we can talk through this um but Rory is out for personal reasons he is listed in the DraftKings pricing but he’s not playing so 10,800 is going to

Be a dead spot in there I mean you can play him if you want to especially if you’re playing against me in the pat Mayo experience listeners League where the link is down in the description use all the Rory you want he will have zero points but you know I’m in that

Tournament too so I want to see you with lineup with zero points not sorry about telling you that if you want to play Rory just you know as a show of support for Rory meloy you go do that if you want to win you don’t play Rory meloy

This week beon hun an is coming off suspension he will play and it looks like Sheamus power is playing as well he’s coming off a hip injury which cost him the end of his season uh but other than that it’s 59 players it’s actually pretty awesome we had 39 players that

Was the largest tournament a year ago ever in the 25 years when it was the Tournament of Champions but now it’s no longer the Tournament of Champions it’s just the Sentry tournament all the winners from last year are in this event as is every player from inside the top

50 of the FedEx Cup standings and the only player eligible who is not playing as action Rory who was taking the pass this is an elevated event there is no cut but 59 players is a whole lot more fun than 29 or even 39 from what we saw a year ago

Like every good player who remains on the PGA tour is going to play this week I do want to take a look at the plantation history the plantation course history at capala before we do anything so what I want to do is we’ll call it

Past 12 rounds but I want to make sure that it’s not like Cameo vas is in the tournament for example I don’t believe he’s played in this tournament since 2015 don’t know if that’s really going to tell us too much so we’re going to separate on the left hand side of

Fantasy National right now the past four years so 2020 2021 2022 2023 we’ll say past 12 rounds and then we’ll scroll down to the courses go to the plantation course at caloa and then take a look at averages to see if there’s any players that are doing better than maybe that we

Think so Xander and Fowler have actually been the best players tied with Tom hogi in terms of Strokes gain total per round at this course over the past four years now Ricky and hogi have only played it one time they only have four rounds Xander has played it basically every

Single year he has 12 rounds at that tournament the maximum of the 12 rounds that’s how well that he is playing at the plantation course after him a 0.1 of a stroke behind is morawa in his 12 rounds Tom Kim and Fitzpatrick in one tournament a piece have played really

Well sunj one .1 per round Cam Davis in one is averaging a stroke per round over the field that’s better than Scotty sheffler who has seen eight rounds Klay is up there Luke list is up there at 0.9 cam young at 7 Harris English at 6 there

Is a guy that legit no one is going to play at this tournament when who did he lose to he came second here or did he win it now I can’t even remember I remember him having a great run at the tour yeah he won this in 2021 it’s

Probably why he’s back up there um yeah puted the lights out that year who the hell did he beat whoever he beat I had money on it was Neiman yeah he beat nean in the playoff when nean didn’t go warm up this tournament has been heartbreaking for me over the years now

That I really think about maybe I blocked all of this out of my mind and just didn’t really want to think about it but here we are H’s played 12 rounds he’s been one of the better players in the field in terms of stroke average per round so has Poston spe the worst

Players if we go look at it are usually first timers because a for first- timers are usually firsttime winners on the PGA tour who are usually at a lower quality of player than your very topend players I mean that’s just intuitive or they’re very young players but we have seen very

Few firsttime players win this tournament I don’t know if any have actually won this tournament we did see Tom hogi finish top three last year and Tom Kim finished top five that’s a bit of an anomaly year-over-year but now that we’ve expanded the field we’re probably going to see more of that but

Generally speaking first time winners and first-time players in this event just have a very tough time with the different undulations with the slopes the elevation changes that it does take a little bit of time to get acclimated like fading some of the firsttime players you can see them all up here I

Mean firsttime players of the past five years most of these players overall like Jason day isn’t a first-time player at this event but you know Denny McCarthy is K kyama is Nick Hardy is and it’s probably the last time that Nick Hardy is ever going to play at this tournament either way

It just takes a little bit of time to figure out how this course works and how to hit the slopes in the right way like local knowledge does come into play a little bit that doesn’t mean that can’t be overcome it is just you know it’s it’s a tiebreaker between a guy who’s

Never played before and a guy who has a bit of experience at this course I would lean with the experience if you if you rate them out exactly the same I wouldn’t say oh I can’t use this guy because he’s never played before but if I like him more than some

Of the other options but all things being equal I’d go with the experience over the firsttime player that’s just what I want to do I do want to take a look at putting for a second though uh past four years the guys that have been very good on these

Greens Fitzpatrick Burns English Poston hogi kley morawa sheffler good Lord Nick Taylor in his four gaining 0 five per round of two uh overall in the tournament that he’s played in anyone who’s been especially bad oh yeah senson Glover the gala Henley Keegan havland just can’t figure out these giant greens

A lot of three putts said if you’re putting very very poorly Luke list we’ll get to Luke list in a minute you know we can do the pro player profile on Luke list who I will be betting this time around came t11 a year ago at this event um he won

During the swing season has made every single cut basically except for the US Open and here’s the very sneaky thing you can see where he’s losing three Strokes to five Strokes per tournament on the greens kind of turned it around a little bit after the US Open I believe

David barnetta the tour junkies told me he either got a new putter or a new putting coach he gained six Strokes in a tournament to win on Bermuda grass as well un like broke even with the field at the RSM and probably did the same thing at the Butterfield Bermuda as well

So but he’s gained in four of his past five weighted events that’s huge I don’t need him to gain the six Strokes I just need his driving to be great which is something that I’m going to wait very seriously this week and his approached to be good which it is he’s actually

Very good around the greens for the most part you see he had this bad run and just he had a bad run overall between chipping and putting but historically speaking he had been some of one of the best around the green players on the PGA tour it seems like he’s reverting back

To that if he can just keep his putter stable I think he’s kind of geared to win this event and slow greens as well generally help him out he’s going to be a bet of mine he’s going to be over a 100 to one uh and he’s $6,200 on

DraftKings uh down at that price I just think that he rates out really well uh despite having four rounds of some of the worst putting you’ll ever see at this course that’s okay it’s a brand new year let’s jump off of the plantation course and go to the actual modeling of this

Event custom stat modeling I have 95% of the waiting applied right now as you can see I have mixed it up a little bit from a year ago it’s actually been a very solid model for me over the years but what I did was take away a little little

Bit from Strokes gained approach and added on to Strokes gained off the te just because I have a lot of approach stats baked in already and one thing that I am going to add to that list is Eagles gained just because you can get

To a lot of these in two in terms of the power fives hell if you have the right win you get some of the power fours into so I’m going to put Eagles gained in here at the bottom um just to kind of throw it in so Strokes gained off the te

20% Strokes gained approach 10% very rarely will you see that SP but you’ll see why in a second with the next stat which is opportunities gained weighted at 25% if you are new to both stats and fantasy national.com fantasy.com Mayo for that 20% off this is a proprietary

Stat that we have it is Greens in regulation INF Fringe In regulation or under within 20 ft of the hole so a legitimate scoring opportunity which is especially important at a tournament like this where you have some of the largest screens on the PGA tour that you need to distinguish between greens and

Regulation I would know maybe it depends on who’s putting me versus Jordan spe who makes everything from 300 ft but a 16t birdie putt is much better than a 93 foot birdie putt which might lead to a three putt now if you’re Luke list you

Might three putt from 17 ft but you want those scoring opportunities it is not the greatest stat for predicting the winner but it is a very good stat for draftking scoring because it just shows you guys are going to make birdies and bunches or potentially have you know

Great pin seeking ability players like Tom hogi and Kurt kyama are always really good at opportunities game because they like fire at every single pin it leads to quadruple Bogies it also leads to birdie streaks at the same time which I’m more concerned with from a DraftKings perspective versus something

Like an outright winner I mean ideally you’d just be great at opportunities gain make a bunch of birdies and win a tournament but it doesn’t always work out that way when you are an aggressive player but this is a course where you do want to be very aggressive at BR game

Power fivs 5% power fours 300 to 400 yards 10% I pointed out why earlier that more holes fall in that bucket than maybe it seems on the scorecard proximity 100 to 125 yards so another approach stat wedge play who’s very good at wedge play Strokes game Power fours

Overall those are the difficult ones on the course 5% putting 5 to 10 feet putting 10 to 15 feet and then Eagles gained at 5% I’m going to load in my results and see what we got a cooking this week at zentry do how many rounds do I have here

I do want to take a very I don’t want 12 rounds because most of these players haven’t played any weighted events in five months what I want to do is zoom out and look at past 100 rounds and I probably don’t need to keep on all of

The Year filters anymore so we’ll just click off of that and we’ll reload the model in uh we tried to work on the side I mean past 100 rounds is it’s a lot of rounds but it gives you a better Baseline of how what players underlying

Skill sets are now if you want to then juxtapose that with the past eight rounds or 12 rounds or 24 rounds to see which players are punching above their weight or below their weight versus their longer term Baseline I think that’s a very smart thing to do and when

You’re a member at Fantasy national.com you can do that so you know Rory’s the best player in the field but he’s not playing so no one cares Xander Sheffer feno Hatton and Victor hland are the next five havan and morawa actually rid out exactly the same tied for sixth in

The modeling the best $7,000 players Connors Eric Cole and Cameron Davis are all 7500 and Below we saw that Cam Davis actually had a really nice result Eric Cole by the way what a swing season this guy had to get himself into this tournament even without a win in five events during the

Swing 2/3 a second and a fourth along with a very crappy t35 of the s Anderson Farms it’s been pretty excellent he didn’t even really putt well in a lot of those events he putt it very well at the RSM but you can see like if you can just

Keep that keep that putter hot keep his off like I don’t love him for this turnament because it’s going to be tough for him to compete off the tea with a lot of these guys but his wedge play is fantastic as you can see number one on

Tour over the past 100 rounds from 100 to 125 yards and plays these and because of that plays these really short par fours really really well so what he’s doing is he’s laying back and relying on his we es a lot of the time to score on

Those holes and is great putting rather than being a player who really goes for the green you can see a lot of the shorter hitters are good on these shorter holes because they know how to play it a little bit better they don’t get too aggressive where big hitters

Like havland or Patrick Klay get themselves into some trouble on some of these holes now their Eagle rate is probably going to be higher than a lot of them you see Tom Kim spe Max hom I mean hom hits the ball pretty good distance Russell Henley all really good

On those holes Davis Riley where then you have someone like Cameron young who’s also very good and can absolutely mash the ball that’s what he does well but you don’t necessarily want to be having the most aggressive players going at it uh if you can find guys that correlate pretty well like Russell

Henley correlates really well so does Eric Cole but they are a bit pricier at 74 uh how much is Henley here in 77 what you can probably do is go down to the very bottom and you can find like P I can’t believe Patrick Rogers is in this tournament technically speaking he

Should be really good here he hits the ball on Mile and he’s a really good putter and sometimes he’s good with his wedges not recently good with his wedges he didn’t really have that great of ear he’s had a nice little hot run through the swing to get himself into the next

10 I think I don’t know how the hell he got himself into this tournament to be perfectly honest with you no idea he made the BMW Championship okay good for him his results I guess he had this nice little run here Mexico top 10 Valero top

Five and top 20 at an elevated event I guess that was good enough and a third in Bermuda 10th at the RSM a year ago I honestly have no idea how this guy is in this tournament maybe he’s like friends with someone and that’s how he

Got in Cameo is like the hottest player besides Eric Cole from the swing season got a win in a second loves Island golf in general but these are the like ball Strikers that I really want to lean towards not the great at not the best

Putters in the world LC list as I kind of went through $6,200 top five off the tea has been better recently and the putting has been better recently although if you look back he’s a player that if we look back at the past 100

Rounds he is dead last from 5 to 10 ft and 10 to 15 ft although once you ju toose that with the past 12 rounds that’s not so much the case so a decent by low opportunity I think on LC list for a course that should set his s sit

With his skill set really really well as long as he doesn’t putt himself out of the tournament you can make any lineup work with $6,200 uh AA baa you know Island Golf King ball striking King can he get the he gets the putter going on really slow surfaces really really well so again

Someone who’s 55th and 56th and the KE putting splits someone who is better on these types of surfaces versus your standard like really fast PGA Tour you know Texas or these fast bent grass courses that you see throughout the course of the summer this is where I

Would want batia uh where the ball striking can really take over for him van Ryan’s another one just been getting a lot better he got his win in Mexico during the swing season to get him into this event but you can see he’s like a totally different player in terms of the

Approach game and the off the tea game basically since mid year or midseason last year the chipping still sucks but these greens are so big you don’t chip all that often so those would be the three I would be going at towards the bottom I’m probably going to bet list to

Win uh and at the top like you can pick your poison like it’s all the best players minus Rory like I mean I like H he doesn’t rate out the best but I like him Harmon someone who can do damage here I mean for me it’s probably going

To be hom and it’s probably going to be Mor aawa I’m not going to decide on the top until I talk it through with Jeff talk it through with degenerate at 75 on the DraftKings pick show like I’d be more comfortable scatter shotting at the top and really having some conviction

Down at the bottom what I want are great drivers of the ball benan coming off suspension would actually kind of fit that but Vince Norman is someone that I would luck at only 85 weighted rounds on the PGA tour so he gets hurt a little bit fantastic at generating Eagle

Opportuni so was Lee Hodes weirdly enough uh pretty good Putter and he got his win in one of the alt events last year at the barbasol as you can see the guy just absolutely dominates off the tea every single week the approach play can be good it can be bad so can the

Chipping so can the putting but when we’re talking about guys in the $6,000 range on DraftKings this is what we want and these are sort of the long shots that we want to take do they have one skill in particular that is Elite even in a great field Vince Norman does and

He also won the Irish open on the DP World Tour during the off seon as well he almost got himself on to the Ryder Cup team don’t forget that this guy’s had a a Very Good Year prodigious driver of the ball I worry that it’s his first

Time at the course but he’s 6,500 this guy can generate Eagles he can generate birdies this is where I would be looking for players we saw last year opportunities gained from hogi and his one start ever came T3 very good with wedges very good with opportunities

Gained it didn’t matter that he was a really crappy driver of the ball didn’t really make a difference so let’s try to find some of those players right now so you know your best players are generally the guys that hit it closest to the hole who are outliers though hogi Eric Cole

Henley Connors kittama I’m going to bet kyama to win kittama is can be a very I mean over it’s funny just to take a look at his stats he’s either awesome or he sucks it’s very funny to look at he’s been kind of bad basically since the

Charles Schwab which was in May so maybe he doesn’t got it going on but historically in his career even his wins on the DP World Tour he’s driven the ball pretty well he drives it a ton he just doesn’t hit any Fairways that’s not a problem here but he’s been very good

At Coastal courses windy courses and courses with slow greens uh and even on Bermuda grass he got his win at the Arnold Palmer very good in Gusty conditions he does play better in harder conditions than he does in easier conditions but you can see the opportunities gained can ratchet itself

Up even in tournaments where his approach play isn’t all that good because he gets so aggressive when you miss at this course it’s not really that bad of a Miss if you get the putter going which again we’ve seen on some of these slower green slower Bermuda greens

At that in the win on Coastal courses he’s just someone that I like again he can absolutely flame out I wouldn’t you know be like oh my God he Kirk Kama is the lock play of the year no absolutely he is not that but he’s very good at

Putting from 10 to 15 feet for one thing the opportunities gained are off the charts he’s very good with his wedges and has a history of winning on Coastal courses normally I wouldn’t play that sort of player on DraftKings at $7,400 but we have a pretty small field no

One’s going to play him anyway if he comes in at 80 to1 or above in the opening Market I will bet him immediately because as we’ve seen he’s won he’s won an elevated event against the best players in the world before in a smaller field at of course which I

Actually think sets up better for him if he just gets unconscious with the putter again he could do it again he could come dead last too that’s why he might be a better bet than he might be a better DraftKings play but that’s where I would be with this Cam Davis actually looks

Pretty good as well you know the off the te kind of rates off the charts but let’s try to find some of these guys wedge play so Sheaffer is not great with the wedges despite being the best approach player on earth Just Hits it close from anywhere hogi as I mentioned

Hideki who used to played this tournament really well and was kind of sucked in his past three visits interesting to see this is where he’s ratcheted it back up his off the has become more accuracy based than distance base maybe this is a spot to go back and

Look at him who knows uh cley’s wedges have been like ass for a while Cole morawa and shafley all rate out really well you can see with ludvig Oar great almost a lot like sheffler very good with opportunities gain but not really the closer you get to the hole kind of

The worse he gets he’s really good from like 165 away with those clubs in his hands versus some of the other guys feno and Henley both great with a wedge and that’s kind of it for guys that rate up there really well in terms of both opportunities gained and the key

Proximity range the other ones to look at like Cory Connor great on opportunities Fowler havin Riley trell Eton Chris Cook Cam Davis is still up there very good on power FES and Eagles as well who are the eagle dudes shafley Oar Vince Norman Justin Rose okay Justin Rose Cam Davis Lee

Hodges as I mentioned Windam Clark havin Sheffer hom hogi benan all right so a few other guys JT poting someone who has a pretty good history at this course as well can kind of really putt the lights out but I think he’s too expensive for my taste this week at $7,200 I would

Prefer that b a list for $1,000 cheaper not even that I need the money I just prefer those players more than JT Poston at this course in particular last thing I want to do is take a look at the past 24 rounds and take a look at that velcro and easy yeah

We’ll take a look at where do we have here greens I don’t really care about the split between bent and Bermuda although these are Bermuda I just want to take a look at the green speed we’re going to go velcro and average so slower don’t really care about the custom model

What I care about is putting and try to see if there’s any outliers amongst these players so past 24 rounds we can take the average per round five to 10 feet anyone who’s especially bad huh LC less no shocker there Glover Cameo just overall one thing we’re working at I

Mean I’m going to tell you about something about fantasy National in a second but one thing that we’re looking at are comparison uh charts too like I can I mean I can do it right now um I’ll put in past 24 and if you just click on the

Mix condition model we’re trying to make this like more streamlined P 24 slow average putting and I want to select the stat Strokes game putting I’m going to add that to my mixed condition model now I’m going to click off of velcro and average for green speed and just have

Normal speed so what I’m going to do is add another column to my mixed condition model and call it putting and we’ll call it last 24 normal putting and this will just give us an opportunity to take a look at the mix condition model I of course I didn’t add them both

In because I didn’t press the right button dummy P’s a dummy so let’s try this again so pass 24 rounds all right every all the filters are off and we’ll go with stroke scheme putting last 24 putting normal is what I’ll call it now I’ll add it to the

Mixed condition model now I’ll look at the mixed condition model and we can load in our results and you can just kind of see we’ll go to the the top of this the slow and velcro uh you can see it is T roll Hatton over the past 24

Rounds and he’s fifth overall so you know there’s not really that big of a split he’s just good at putting so is Fleetwood so is RO it’s funny that all these British guys are really good on slow greens I I guess that tracks when you’re historically used to playing on

Some of these so maybe some Euro tour players we have seen an Australian and a span andard win the past two years at this course after 11 straight years of Americans winning at this course but who has big splits fow has huge splits he is fifth on slow and average greens

9th overall even when you include those rounds which is normal putting just neutral putting so there is a big split so maybe feno is a really good look here Eric Cole better on the slower greens Max H better on the slow greens Jason day and Sheamus power way better as our

Windham Clark no sorry not Windam Clark Patrick Klay and Patrick Rogers wiam Clark actually goes the other way day in power Taylor Moore SEIU Kim and Colin morawa also go from Bad Putters to slightly better than average Putters in this field on slower greens from neutral

Greens now we can do this the other way to see who kind of drops the other way who let’s see Keegan better are on faster greens is one of the worst players on slow greens that’s insane to think about who else uh ludvig obar gets better on faster greens and slower

Greens ditto for havland ditto for Harris English although Harris English has gained six Strokes at this tournament and won this tournament before so it doesn’t it’s not one for one oh and he’s 31st in a field of 60th so he’s basically average this isn’t a 1

V one oh this guy is most definitely going to suck because of this I think it’s interesting to look at when you see some of the splits to try to find some outliers that again it’s like the course history thing or the experience thing at this course where if this is something

That you can point to in order to have a tiebreaker not put all your emphasis on this but use these little things as tiebreakers that’s how you want to play this out this is what we do the research for other players uh with massive downswings Matt Wallace and Lee hun I

Guess not every Brit is good on the slower surfaces um let’s see who else here I mean Glover’s just kind of bad either way Wallace Hodges Cameron Davis and Tom hogi or worse but both of those players that played well at this course in the past so that’s what the velcro

Putting looks like at the sentury the plantation course at kaaloa subscribe to and become a member at Fantasy national.com Mayo I don’t want to promise that we have a very special tool coming for people within let’s say four weeks from now maybe at the farmers that’s the hope but we’ve been working

On a special tool for two years and everyone’s really going to like it and I think we’re going to release the beta version to members and you’re probably going to want and get your hands on this it’s just going to be an addition to Fantasy national.com uh on top of everything

That we have going on plus we’re redoing the site at the same time but all of our emphasis has been on this one tool in particular I don’t want to pull the rug from I don’t want the rug pulled out from underneath me and I don’t want to

Say it and have it pulled out from underneath you at the same time because uh I think it’s going to be a very special tool that everyone is is going to use industrywide even casuals will probably end up using it uh and we’ve really tried to Think Through what

People need and eventually it’ll become like a free tool but I think we’re going to run it as a beta for all fantasy national.com members um but you know the tools are all still out there that you’re used to using so go to fantasy.com mayo and get your 20% off

Any of the memberships it’s a great time to get the annual deal to be perfectly honest with you go January to January easy stuff wh almost knocked something over next to me here the r for the Mayo cup the one andone $200 to play go to fantasy golf championships or fan golf

Champs everything’s down in the description.com right now get your entry you screenshot that entry to me and put you in the running for another entry this time for free uh in the race for the Mayo cup $80,000 for first place $200 entry goes from January to August

Great bang for your buck we have those text alerts to make sure that you do not miss a week and if you wanted to just without getting an entry to get into the draw for a free entry rate review and turn on those Auto downloads subscribe to the pat Mayo experience audio podcast

On Apple podcast if you’re someone who listens on Apple podcast regularly do me a favor and go do it on Spotify and in the episode for this one like what’ you think of this episode say I want a free entry or something like that any engagement on Spotify is good engagement

For me so please go do that at the same time the DraftKings listeners league is down in the description right now I am pumped golf is back if you’re watching this and you made it through 40 minutes of it I’m sure you are too so let’s go

Get some cash all right all right we’ll see you next time experence experience