Who will be “Championship-ready” at Christmas? Road To Cheltenham 2023/24 – Episode 6 -(21/12/23)

Lydia Hislop and Ruby Walsh preview the big action over the festive period, focusing on the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase at Kempton and Leopardstown’s Savills Chase.

Is Ruby sticking with Willie Mullins and Allaho for the King George or does he expect Bravemansgame to bounce back in a race that will surely be run differently to 12 months ago?

Meanwhile in the Savills, we have a contest that looks particularly deep now that Gerri Colombe is a confirmed intended starter. So who will land the spoils on December 28?

#horseracing #horse #kemptonpark #leopardstown #tips

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Py power sponsors of the road to Chelham hello everyone and welcome to the pre Christmas edition of road to chelham forget the Christmas decorations they can do themselves forget the turkey forget wrapping the kids presents they won’t mind that they’ve got unwrapped presence in the tree under the morning it’s absolutely fine this is more important we’ve reached a major

Crossroads in the road to chelham and I suppose the Spaghetti Junction Ruby of the Season where lots of different roads coales for this cracking Christmas action and as a result of what we see over the next couple of weeks or so horses will be taking different roads

Yes I almost like a t Junction some will turn left and head on for the festival and some will come to the end of the road and it’ll be right in a different direction so um look it is it’s a huge part of the jump season Christmas time

And great racing from the 26th all the way until May and early January I suppose yeah absolutely um and we are going to be focusing on the key Christmas action in the coming hour uh should we get straight on with it Ruby shall we why not the King George is the

Place that we are going to start um so let’s take a look at the betting now a little sort of uh what’s the word I’m looking for caveat clearly we are talking about this on Thursday and so there are some repeats that you might be watching now of this show which will be

Nearer the time and you’ll have more information than we have at this point so at the moment in that betting you’ll see that Jerry colom is in it and at the time of recording we are assuming that horse Ruby will not be running here and we’ll be going to the sail’s chase

Perhaps yeah it’s up in the air and whichever is he runs and he’s going to be a big addition to it he’s a very good horse but look the the general Vibe as we’re recording is that he probably stay on his side of the Irish sea and not

Cross the channel or cross the sea even so um yeah look we can do about that well let’s talk about how last year’s race was won shall we because we have the defending Champion Brave man’s game running in the race we also have the eventual second Royal pagy and the third

Froden who’s run the race before all of them re oppose now are we how was the race run this time last year Ruby how did you see the King George remind everybody I wouldn’t say it was a frantic King George and the reason I don’t think it was a frantic King George

Because you see what you’ll see it halfway but fron obviously jumped out sorted a high inor Harry cobon had a good position on Brave man’s game he lined him up a little bit wide middle of the track but that was fine usual down charge down over the first fence but

What kind of took my eye watching it back was when they got the halfway which is passing the win and post after jump in nine R pag is upside second and to me if you’re going really hard Royal pag wouldn’t be in that position Harry cam

Was always in a good good posy on Brave man’s game L press was right down the inside and they came to the four off the home turn and they were the ones your eyes were drawn to but you were thinking well well L pre out stay R man’s game

And that was my general thought maybe watching it live but you knew when Harry cob this started to catch a hold to bra man’s game to the second last three lands up sides there was only going to be one winner and he put a bit of daylight between himself and L press

Going to the last one pre and SE to Charlie dut and he ran out a really good winner he beats Ro p with 14 lengths does a reproduction of that win this year’s King George put you down close well it definitely does and we’ll talk about what form all the in

Individuals are in in a few moments time though but let’s talk about how we expect this year’s race to be run things are likely to be a little bit different aren’t they I think they will there’s more out and now front in this race um

Look it was a Hing Y in flaud on last year but there’s horses i’ like that go and like to go really good gallop and none more so than thano I mean he’s uh he’s after obliva in two ryers all right was 21 and 22 he missed 23 and he was

Really good at punches down in 2023 but even watch him in his second R there he jumped out El Dorado Allen was the only horse who went to go with him early in the race and it didn’t look frantic up over the First Fence in that R there but

When they get down into the home straight second last or the last fence seven look at the spread on them how far aloho is to Alor Allen alerado Allen to the field so he can go a really Sean gallab so he’s one that’s going to book out and be there there

Abouts okay and then there are others as well um the real Wacker for example went forward in the brown advisory yeah he did and he’s a really good jumper which helps him in his style of running so he booked out in the brown advisory but it

Was the jump of the first and how quick he was away from the first that put him in command in that race and that’s a a trade of his style of running isn’t he likes to get on with it they’re obviously going to have fraud on as well

So that’s three that are going to be playing up there and then the if we have a look at the early stages of the Gold Cup we can look about where brav man’s game and Huck both were on this occasion yeah well hu could be the fourth that’ll

Be there thereabouts on the pace and in the goal cup when they got up to the second fence Harry cbom was dropping back into the box seat on Brave man’s game but Huck was going forward and he was going to be there there about he’s there thereabouts all the way in that

Gold cup until he eventually comes down at the second last win Brave man’s game and Galloping the shampa going about so sitting down to have it hustle to win the race but look that was at three miles who we got to the second last still in front look he was probably a

Bit of value last week at 50 to one at 16 to one there there abouts now probably not the same value right okay so that’s form that so that that’s the sort of shape of the race as we see it so let’s talk about whether those horses are able to execute

Their best day in the King George and the obvious one to start with is alaho who um was we were expecting at the King George last year he had a quite a serious spleen problem and we have only seen him once since punches down of two

Seasons ago and that was in the Clone mile oil Chase how how much of his ability do you think we saw that he retained in that race look it wasn’t impressive um you went to the first fence for Paul turn and there was only three runners jadil was the only meaningful opposition now

Jadel had finished second R there 14 L behind him he ends up seven L behind him here in clell but Alo jumped left at the first and at the second fence um he was going a good enough Gallop the same when he got down on the second Circle he was

Still going out to his left with his jumpering which probably isn’t ideal at at kton mind call used to go left um but he did look like he got tired he was Ring Rusty jumped the second last well I actually thought from the last fence home he was more impressive than he was

At any point in the second circuit but he needs to be a lot better than that if he’s going to win the King George he should have improved for his first run he has done in the past improved plenty for a run but I think he have needed to

Improve a go but like after he won or he was beaten by Sha and por over two miles he went back to the John deren where he only beat Janel by two lengths and then his next start he won in Turles after Janu so he does improve for his first

Run and janil has been a fair Y St to measure against he does go out to his left he did that when he won and beat a deep field in the punchestown Gold Cup two seasons ago and that is when he proved himself over three miles as well

Yeah he did um look I suppose he had g a three M lavard like clam many moons ago and then looked like didn’t quite maybe was too free in the Albert Bartlett he tried three miles in punchan where he hung left all the way as well but um

Yeah he’s look he has a big engine you’re hoping that the ability is still there he’s only nine hopefully it is it wasn’t like it was the spleen injury it’s what the only thing I have in common with that all um but more so than legs anything to do with their

Tendons or muscles an internal injury so hopefully the ability is still there and is does he look the same kind of horse at home is he behaving in the same kind of way oh he is but he’s not he wouldn’t take your take the eye out of your head

I mean we did run him in a Tre M lavaur he’s never exactly been one that was catching the pigeons and that left going how much would that concern you I know that you’ve made mentioned Cortez star won Mr Christian for this show that you mentioned Cortez star did that but aljo

Is quite marked about it yeah yeah but I suppose when it didn’t affect him at pun toown he’s won a John dark and he’s won a pun toown Gold Cup um more Galloping surely than than Kempton isn’t it bigger bigger and Ranger and less tight kmt is not tight

Though K is fast tight is the wrong word you’re right tight is the wrong word yeah Kempton is fast Kempton because it’s dead level and there’s a lot of jump in there all right the water jump is now gone Z one less but there is plenty of jumping and once you’re

Jumping you tend to find Kempton is suitable once you’re a good jumper okay which we definitely know alaho is right Brave man’s game what kind of form is he in because he was fabulous last year the win in this the second in the Gold Cup was out standing performance he even ran

Well at pchan what’s what’s happened this season so he looked like he was going to win on Weatherby and he made a mistake at the last and gentleman G gentleman’s game beat him but I watched him in hadock and away from the second V Daryl Jacob on Landing squeezed him back

Onto the bridal and the same again at the back of the for fence he to squeeze him away to to get him on the bridal um which which to me wasn’t typical Brave man’s game he was a horse that was a good traveler obviously that mistake at

The last in WBY he just stood a bit far back and he’s H end landed on it it cost him the race but there were two two hard enough races um where be and herock and you’re trusting Paul Nichols to have him 100% because on prep on form it’s

Questionable he’s had a sort of slightly muddled start of the season because first he wasn’t going to win in the Charlie hall and then he did and then he wasn’t going to run in the BET F Chase and then he did Paul Nichols has been talking about him having taken a step

Forward at home that kempton’s the ultimate track for him he did acknowledge that maybe it’s taken a while to get over the Gold Cup as you say it’s a nonideal preparation going into what I think is inarguably a track that shows his best assets off best it

Is and but horses for coures Trainers for races true and be that he is the King George 11 12 of him something ridiculous anyway but he knows how to have a horse ready for the 26th of December so let’s talk about his bet Fair Chase conqueror Royale pagy who as

We mentioned was quite a distance sort of in second he inherited it from his stale companion uh this time last year I argued when we reviewed the BET Chas that he didn’t actually need to improve on his best form in order to win that what did you think he probably didn’t

But he definitely it was just the ease of where he was within the race hasn’t always been the case for riy p and he was like able to put it up the brave man’s game halfway down the back he jumped by him at the fourth last um was

Clear him at the third last and by the time he gets to the last it’s all over and he gallops all the way to the line now he does have a really good record at hok um he want a couple of big handicaps there with top weight he’s one a best

Fair Chas there I was he’s a solid enough jumper I’m just not convinced he’s a canos I don’t think he is either I think we’ve got enough evidence to suggest that he isn’t absolutely at his best there let’s move on to shishkin sh we he’s the he’s the

Real imponderable in the race isn’t he just in general and not just because of what’s happened this season let’s let’s talk about about last season and what you made of it yeah but if you’re a shishin fan if you’re prepared to take a few points less when he’s heading to the

Second vence if he’s on a going day he’s a massive massive Runner there’s no doubt about that obviously with the signs were kind of there last year with him as wanting a trip started a ran air he was quite sluggish in it jumped very much left at the fourth fence and again

At the second fence made a really bad mistake at the third last and the Ryan a and looks to be out of the race and then lo and behold when he gets to the last and gets a bit a clear enough run from the back of it away he goes again to

Chas in Bo in but look that was him went to entry then lined up perfectly jumped off in a good position down the inside but when he gets to the second last it looks like a high seor is home for all money and then halfway between the last

Two fents a high seor starts the fall or Shish can like he almost got a sniff of Victory and decides to go and and Away with him and pings the last and runs down the high sen yor but like there’s no doubt that there’s a huge engine there it’s

Just what kind of a morning she can has on the 26th there is that how good is that anry bow form as you said Hoon you looked like he had him cooked to out he did but not dish in for but the further season goes and it’s no different to any

Other sport you just have to look at Rugby World Cup and you watch the standard of games the longer the tournament went on the standard dropped ever so slightly semi-final finally compared to what happened in the quarter finals so you can argue the same for horses that have raced all the way

Through the season by the time they get the anry or punches down they are tapering off a little bit so I I wouldn’t knock it for that and you mentioned he goes out to his left it it doesn’t bother me with him I mean his best performance have been at Ascot and

Uh he’s unbeaten at Kempton uh you know that that’s your quto star type example isn’t it where a tendency to do that is not actually an issue no and I think it’ been the same for Alo I do okay um and okay so the start Nikki Henderson says

Uh he’s less concerned about whether shishkin starts and everyone will remember him sort of proudly watching on as the 1865 Chase started without him down at the start shishkin he looked very pleased with his work uh then Nikki Henderson tries to take him to Newcastle for the rehearsal chase that was

Abandoned the fighting fifth was was moted but that ground was too deemed too heavy for seasonal debut so close to the King George and now he goes straight there and Nicki Henderson is arguing he’s more worried about going straight there into the King George you know this

Deep over three miles at Kempton where as you’ve just said it’s Relentless Pace than whether or not he starts I could see yeah to me like if you’re thinking about it you line him up in the middle between horses you don’t give him a chance to whip left or whip

Right you put him between two now not to the other joers are going to be helping whoever right Nik to make sure he jumps off you be trying to get away from him but Niko get into a position where shishin either has to you won’t allow

Him in a position where he can duck and stop so so um I’d be happy enough that he’ll get him away but I would agree with Nikki that when you get into King George a championship race when you get up the championship level you need to be Championship

Ready and he’s he’s going there without that prep um the assistant trainer George Daly um who’s also nephew to trainer Henry Daly is going to be down and start leading shishkin in he rides him every day knows the horse well hoping to get him to go going well at

The start oh yeah yeah du they be used to behavior signs maybe you know when he’s half thinking of going left might be able to make sure he stay straight it was Lefty whipped ascar wasn’t it was he dued out he dued out left yeah he dropped his shoulder left that’s right

Yeah the second time yeah um and of course he’s facing uh away from the race cor Stables again that was just something that that Nikki raised as a concern about kton at Ascot right the wheel wack Nikki’s Lobby couldn’t move the start around the bend to the back of the

He can do many things but not that how the case of the real Wacker then obviously the brand advisor is the pro is the paty power Gold Cup pulling up last time a con it probably is it’s not ideal anyway but every way you’d look at it so he was a really good

Winner of the of the brown advisory H got himself in a good position with in the race got a really positive ride kept jumping and it was jumping that probably wed for him H pinged the last fence and got another length on Jerry colam who couldn’t get him back by the time they

Get to the line but then the Patty power he down to the third last fence he’s dropping out of the race by then and made a bad mistake at it and he pulls up in the back of the shot I suppose if if he had got outpaced

In the Patty power and come running home the Finish to to Fort he’d find it easier to make a case from um but I think he has to um he has to bounce back I mean I won’t fall out of the the truck in in Kempton if the real recer wins the

King George but um you just I couldn’t have him on his last run in you yeah he’s in in very deep deeper than he’ll ever have been before the good news is that Pat Neville his trainer had his first winner this season on Sunday they he hasn’t you know

Doesn’t have a shed load of Runners I think he’s now won for 28 something like that um but at least they’ve they’ve turned a corner in that regard right Huck uh how about him uh I mean he was set to win the Kerry National when he

Was when he went at the last off a really high mark red up and hit it hard and gave Jordan gford no chance of staying on him and that was going to be a hell of a good performance in the handicap there’s no doubt about it the

Last time we saw him winning a race was at Sandown and when he bought it in in a race that was introduced instead of a goal cup one time and then has never been removed and then obviously the goal we play was the last time we saw him

When he was dropping a long way out of the shot and they were turning in um you know he’d won the rest year before I don’t know I I just think that guy would he’d like to seen him run better in the goal of there and froon the winner in

2020 can you give him any chance I would struggle to who’s the winner for you I couldn’t go against alaho and but i’ be I’d be great r bradman’s g and shishin shishin partakes he’s the biggest danger to the mall so let’s move on to the savil chase shall we that’s

The big staying chase at when at lepone over Christmas we can have a look at the entries there Galloping Desa fast SL Jerry color who at the time of recording we are expecting to run here if he runs at Christmas so again Ruby start with

The same question if we have a look at the last two renewals uh autar being beaten by Galvin two years ago and conflated winning last year how are they going to be run how were they run rather compared to how expecting this year’s to be run in those two renewals you had

Kemboy who likes to go forward so camboy booked out and went in 2021 um app plar Dropped In got across the bottom Rachel Blackmore moved up on a PL tire and to get involved Galvin got out paced on Dey Russell and then as what happens or can

Happen in lepone last fence to the winning post it’s almost a Fong but it’s rising ever so slightly and the result changes and galin runs down at plutar and at plutar then went and won the Gold Cup so that was that year following year 2022 confl in kembo book out he had

French Dynam FY old Galvin again and you know conf was always up there now he stayed wide he got in control of the race six from home conflated Jack Kennedy was in a really good position and he quickened off the front pinged the last fence and he was a good winner

Now we do have confl going left-handed definitely suits confl as well he jumped out left all the way in down Royals so from a pace point of view you’ll definitely have ConEd who is one front runner because there’s not many more Front Runners in

It no okay so we could have not the end to end Gall that we’re expecting saying the King George I don’t think you desend competition for Pace um you have two and to get a strong strong Gallop you need competition for the pace not just one

Horse to Jump and Go you need a couple of horses to take each other on and here it looks like you have one horse going forward it’s hard to say coping the sh fast or slow or Jerry KH making the running enoy Allen doesn’t the BL T doesn’t you conflated appreciated de

Over two and a half would he over three I’d be surprised I am Maximus definitely won’t neither will capano classic getaway where he might be up there but that’s about the only passes there no from the reading out all of those potential players we’ve got a deeper addition of this race

Haven’t we we have and that’s where we haven’t shown the anybody because we’re doing this on Thursday and what’s declared is going to determine what shape this Market takes but um yeah but that was the introduction or the removement of the John dark definitely from a Willie mullen’s point of view

With the John darkin going back to the Morgana weekend it allowed the extra couple of weeks to Christmas and it looks like he’s going to run gin yeah that’s why galip indam is there um so let’s have a look at his course and distance form shall we from the Irish

Gold Cup of last season yeah and it was a decent enough performance um they went a pretty a decent enough Gallop um he Paul sat him in just down the inside behind his own St m in front and yeah you you’d like what you saw jump the to

Got to the to last it was four or five minute group in front of him he’s right behind them but close enough to attack follows them across to the second last goes to join Fury Ro the run to the last fence Fury Ro gets lost and heads off to

His left H Galloping the shamp has to Jump by him and straighten it up and the F he was going in lepone the further he was going to win now he’s only beaten Fury Road what we saw on a cross country race last weekend but you love the way

He hit the line yeah and but stamina was never going to be an issue for him yeah and his his jumping improved so much last season um and in the end he also combined that sort of tactical speed that he’s got with being a very strong

Stayer at the end of the Seas season you could possibly forgive him and brav man’s game for being beaten by fter slow at punches toan but since then fter slow has come out again against Galloping to sha in the John Durkin and beating him again yeah and look appre had jumped out

To make the run in the that John Durkin fast to slow and Galloping to Sher side by side but gup and the Shan’s jumping let him down on this occasion and even at that fifth or sixth fence top of the hill and punch us down the difference in

Fast or slow to gallop the champ and was was marked off the home turn for them in a line f slow blue Lord appreciated and Galloping the shamp and you got the race you wanted for for a group one red one even pings the second last but the

Faster horse and the horse that jumped better on the day was faster slow I didn’t think he was a faster horse I thought watching faster slow at punchan last year he actually wanted every y a tree so if you’re a fast or slow fan you’re entitled to think you’re going to

Be better at lip now over three miles than you were punches him and you’re getting you know looking at the betting at the time that I’m speaking second favorite behind behind G galapin sham I realize that could be Chang Changed by the time you’re watching but galapin

Sham how about the brave man’s game argument that Paul Nichols was making that he might have taken a while to recover from the Gold Cup possibly we’ve seen Brave mans twice got up in the shamp and showing all signs of that at home and but just didn’t like his

Jumping a bunch of my horse that took the sight out of my eye when he ran a LEP the beginner sh you were thinking oh my God as a novice how flamboyant and exuberant he was last year how me he was this year he was B stuttery backing off

You’re thinking that’s just not him has he had a lot of schooling since I take it will Mullen strs him is that a yes or a no say he’s said too much H he knows how to jump as confidence he needs okay let’s move on to Jerry color

Now of the two Targets that gelli could choose from this Christmas is this the better one for him in your opinion more you look at the races the more you would think no h would you prefer to take on Brave man’s game who’s questionable at the minute we know he’s

A very good horse H alaho who’s had one run in 18 months and shishin who failed to start the last time so if you are simply breaking it down you would say no you got to run the King George now Beau side of that coin is that even for Irish

Horses will defitely bring an Alo but the co tracks on the East Coast are a could bit shorter to get a West Coast sry would be shorter for us to get to anry cheltam are hell of a lot closer than Kempton and you get into Christmas

Traffic as well they have to go before Christmas so Kon to go a bit further away um and that would be a factor I would imagine and the two tracks comparison the tracks I would think the nature of lepers town probably suits Jerry col better than Kempton and it’s

Defenses it’s even the last five five and a half FS when you jump the last ditch in LEP you’re five for to run with two fences you go back five Fs in kton you’re probably at the four last fence so it’s four to2 so like jumping is really important at at kton it’s

Important every race but it it’s definitely heightened at Kenton how you jump and you watched Jerry last year in the brown advisory so you get up to the fourth last and if you only look at him versus the re haer in this race the real Wacker is in and out much quicker than

Jerry khum and the same at the last fence you Jerry doesn’t do anything wrong it’s just the speed which the real haacker lands and it gets him another length that holds him off Jerry colum and then when he watched him in down Roy like he needed every yard of it now I

Know he got the wrong side he conflated but he needed every yard of the three miles to beat basically a two and a half mile in by yeah so that that stamina that that late strong run that he has is going to be advantaged by being in leopard stand

He’s going to be a d if he’s in touch he’s going to be a danger to W isn’t it huge danger you get off the bend in LEP Town it rises into the straight and with only one fence that’s a lot of Galloping with very little jumping which means you

Get no chance to slow it down a horse doesn’t get any breeder you’re on it and stays wi there and the winner is I’m thinking with Galloping because of my allegian is to the place but it’s jezz it’s a good rest yeah fast as slow

And J by the rising horses oh yeah and like we haven’t spoken about NY Allen or a plutar who were in there too CL Wonder ass last year it’s just huge dep that it’s gous let’s move on to the pis Rewards Club Chase which is over two mile one

It’s a a two mile two mile race and all it it’s slightly longer than that and it rewards staying doesn’t it you’ve you’ve been teaching me that this race in particular rewards a staying two Miler two miles of lepon I always think those reward horses that can stay um I think

If you can it it is because it’s not as fast as and it’s two miles in one I think that’s going to be a problem for some of them okay um so let’s talk about the pace of the race this time around um last year of course it was blue Lord who

Beat Captain Guinness 11 length into second with sha and bis back in third let’s talk about how you think the race this year is going to be run through the prism of that race you have Captain Guinness gentleman to me as well again he’s on the White Cap over in The Far

Side Captain Guinness has become much more set as he’s got a bit older R blackmor now if to drop him in but you’re definitely going to have um gentleman to me rocking forward and so he’ll be buying up there obviously in if John Durkin appreciated made the running

Now I’m not sure whether he’ll come down and trip in this or go up and trip to the Sab and that’s up in the air for debate but diar Dynamo definitely won’t be going up and trip so he’s in here as well he likes the front run he only has

One way of running so um you’d have plenty of pace and they bought in the one yard but the two them m so this could be a more contested Pace than last year every chance it could be yeah yeah mind you gentleman is probably getting a little bit easier to write yeah he’s

Starting to look like a horse that can that can take a lead but he did take a couple of runs last year he he did absolutely yeah um let’s talk about the individuals starting with Captain Guinness who has begun the season with success and this could be his grade one

Chance it could be but even if you look at last year’s race so when they get across to the second last sh and for coming down the outside he makes a mistake and Captain Guinness lands in front you you’re thinking he’s going to get his day but immediately your ey is

Drawn to Blue Lord behind him who switches inside him going to the last blue Lord is gone by and blue Lord pings it but Captain Guinness then Fades and gets beaten a long way by Blue Lord I just wonder you want the for Tria at Navin which is two miles most chases in

Na are actually 2-1 as well but in the for Tria they start the second last for it’s the bang Square two miles and I just wonder is two one really stretch him I was I was going to put the same thing to you I mean I think he’s a very

Consistent horse particularly these days has become much more tractable second in the Queen Mother Champion Chase second in the celebration Chase to John Bon as you mentioned that winning the Ferria but does this just stretch him a little bit and then this gentleman Dei who’s jumping fell apart in this race last

Year and as you say he took a long time to find his stride orbe he has won the Dublin Chase yeah he has but he jumped up differently at the Dublin Chase he got into a great Rhythm Danny Mullins Roe him you can watch him in the back

Straight fifth fence Brave like a two mile again at the sixth third last absolutely pinged it and he was home for all money by the time he got to the last fence he beat Don vegan blue Lord was in there as well um similar kind of form

But I just thought that that was a good performance but that was his fourth run of the Season he’d unseated at n he ran the Tinker Creek he’d ran at lepr Center Christmas he took a few runs last year whereas this time he’s going to have to

Do it first time out is he’s owned by JP mcmanis as is Dino blue first of all are they both likely to run do you think I would think they are um there’s not much any other options for them to go to the desert Aran is now a limited handicap so

I couldn’t see they won’t be going there so Dino blue yeah she I’d imagine she’d go here and on the ratings she’s probably in tight that to take her chance usually we look at D blue and you think really good jumper until you looked at last year’s Grand annual and

You watch the last two fences um mistake it the second last mazik had gets to her she still looks like she’s going to win going to the last and how she stands up with the last is probably a reflection of how easily she was going um if she

Was getting a bit empty there’s no way she would have stood and then you move away from that you go back to her punches town where she comes from behind Douglas talking you look well handicapped to in a handicap there and then she goes to n this year field door

Is behind her who chased Home El fabiolo at cark last week and her jumping was spectacular really measured really AC really accurate fourth last third last and again at the last fence she is a really good jumper and she looks to be an improver yeah she really impressed me

There um she beat Phil door and Phil door’s obviously gone on and and run really well um behind alabo hasn’t he yeah who where were you align I mean this is I felt this was a difficult race we’ve highlighted what we think might be the flooring Captain Guinness even

Though I like the horse I’m I’m coming down and Dino blue site and I mean she spot on at the ratings with um Captain Guinness 15 162 to 155 getting the May’s 7 pound allowance she’s dead square with him officially so we asked you the same question who wins the pades Rewards Club

Chase we had a lovely picture of Captain Guinness in the background as well and this was your answer Captain Guinness 43% appreciated 28% gentleman Dei 15% and Dino blue only 14% The Outsider are four there and this is what you all thought so James Stark says that uh

Captain gdis was far more impressive this year than last year in the Ferria um and he’s made the argument about the Queen Mother the champion Chase and celebration Chas is the best form on offer this is his day for a grade one I can see that just worried about that

Final Furlong Tom says he wouldn’t trust Captain gin to put two career best efforts back toback I’m not sure I agree with that part Tom um I think he’s been very consistent last three times appreciate it jumped and traveled the best he ever has last time over two and

A half if he gets into a rhythm he could be difficult to pass over at this trip what do you think or difficult to pass at this trip sorry it could be but he didn’t look quick enough for two miles last year didn’t Dino blue for Phil and

He makes the same case as you about the seven pound inferior to Captain Guinness that gets the mayor’s allowance six-year-old lightly raced appreciated too slow over two mils now gentleman Dei too inconsistent Phil are you Ruby in disguise we’ll find out when you do analyze This so Lads apparently I meant to be asking people at home to subscribe to the Patty par racing YouTube channel sign as a fallar shut up you described this day it’s possibly your worst day ever have you ever heard of Ruby Walsh some juice John Wayne look like on

More than likely at the same time wow second H is mar expensive bars at where you go like that that to be an answer for yeah I C your Nots off what do you think it happen to You so for analy this this week we’re going to have a look back at the December Gold Cup and two very different ways of trying to Ace achieve the very same thing even a daughter jumps out in front on the left in the pink fugitive is dropped in in the Purple colors under

Gavin Chen at the back and theed read strong Gallop but a level Gallop most of the way in this race and H Doo was always on the front end whereas Fugitive made a mistake here at the second last fence with the circuit to go and that puts him even further back but from

Gavin Sheen’s point of view when they Round the Bend past the stands and a l Doo and Ferrero bamboo are striding away there’s very little he can do he’s looking up hoping the ones in front of him I’m going to keep him close enough but they use the ulation they roll down

Into the back straight Bry Frost and Charlie D and with the handy come down the hill to the to last there Long Way clear of The Fugitive at the purple in the back eloor is over the fence and away and away and here comes fugitive in

The next Parish but off the bend Bry decides to open up B Roto or not even open him up try and maintain the momentum and she squeezes him off the Bend to get away from flero bamboo and extends him to the second last but unfortunately when she gets to the

Second last El daughter’s not on a great stride he is gets in tight and loses a considerable amount of momentum whereas Gavin Sheen who has kept his powder dry is now starting to fly home now Gavin still realizes he’s going to need a bit

Of look this is in the lap of the Gods for him but all he can do is try Bry is regathered ILO going to the last fence he’s backing off he’s backing off but momentum lost at the second last now has him really slowed down when fugitive

Comes to him in a second IL roro does start to Rally but he’s running out of petrol and the rally is only for a 100 yards before fugitive gets on top and gets his head in front to win by short head or a nose two different ways of

Doing it Gavin Sheen is the hero because he won and brany Frost isn’t but there’s only a nose in there and the second last F was all the Difference so BBE what did you think about the two the decisions that the Riders made what were the race winning and losing moves and clearly we’re talking about very fine margins because this was a very narrow finish yeah Gavin was rating probably more an Instinct he

Got caught forther back and he wanted to be and made and when he made that mistake early in the race it put him on the back front so he had no plan he’s just riding on instant then and hoping he gets lucky whereas Bry set out with a

Plan and she very nearly pulled it off like a better jump at the second last and Gavin Sheen doesn’t get there but when you jump and go and go hard people are always going to pick go that is the the joest perspective that you’ve explained uh there let’s

Have a look at it from a a data perspective shall we and have a look at what race IQ have to say about it and we’ve zeroed in on the second last and the last fence so the second last is fence 16 here yeah it’s the second last

And I suppose when you look at the entry speeds um fugitive is coming at over 33 miles an hour to it Oto was under 30 29.97 and the speed loss 3.8 seconds for fugitive 6.24 for IL Roto time is in the envelope but it swung around to a margin

Of 3.3 in the game for fugitive over uto at the second last but crucially was the momentum that was lost and again at the last fence because of that momentum lost fugitive is 29 miles an hour a little over going to it ilod Auto’s down to 27

Loses more speed ilod Auto does than fugitive and that turns into a 2.8 length swing for fugitive again I I know there’s lots of figures there but the mistake the loss of momentum at the end of a race just made it so hard for ill

Auto to try and pick up again and the the effort of jumping at the last two fences what’s the difference in winning and losing okay we’re having a look at the second last and the last slow down with those helpful figures there about look at the amount of speed for

Fus or ill Auto sorry at the second last he loses over six miles an hour and you can see it in his stride and even to the last fence even though Bry spots a really good stride and she has the RS up in him it’s laborsome through the air

And it’s slow away where his fugitive just shoots through the air and you can see see that Gap closing that speed momentum you talk about fractions that’s where fractions are and if you’re running fast late fractions it’s amazing much you can make up but if you’re running slow late fractions it’s also

Amazing much you can lose now obviously we’re still learning about what all of this this data means I I I certainly am some people might have a look at those figures and say that um you know given the way that IL rotto uh exits the Final Fence quicker than he

Entered it that actually the shows that he was idling and maybe had had um ill had a fugitive got to him sooner I mean we know that fugitive can be um he looked like he had a little bit of a think before he he went past that maybe

The the the race might have panned out differently you know if if Otto had kind of got there sooner if you see what I mean I know what you’re saying and you can see that from halfway after the last fence when fugitive does get to El Auto

He definitely rallies but he only had a 100 yards of a rally before he was out of petrol so I don’t think it was IDL and getting lonely I just think it was coming to the end of a really big effort and when he dug in he could only dug in

For for 100 yards or dig in for 100 yards when he needed to sustain and repel the challenge for about 150 okay well let’s move on shall we to the novice chases before we look at the big novice chases over the Christmas period we can reflect on what we’ve seen

Over the last seven days and one the key matchups and again we can use some rayi key data to have a look at this was in the novice’s chase at chelham last Friday where jinny’s Destiny was able to beat gray Dawning but the pivotal moment was a mistake from the latter at the

Second last yeah it was but when you look at it on the whole Jeanie’s Destiny jumped out in front and even at the first fin you can see how much quicker Genie’s Destiny was than gray Dawning and when they got into the back straight Harry Skelton was having to go for big

Jumps and great on just to keep up with Genie’s Destiny 10 fence same at the 11 fence but at the six last the last ditch jeie was a good bit quicker than gray Dawning even when both better than tighter stries third last Harry cin was able to slow gen’s Destiny down to jump

The third last and then off the bend to the second last Harry cob Harry Kelton is coming to Harry copton and gray Dawning gets it all wrong and that’s a huge difference genus Destiny then goes and jumps to last well but when you look at the data and then you watch the win

In distance Harry Skeleton on gr Dawning gets back to within three parts of a length of Harry Cobden on Genie’s Destiny but the second last fence cost him way more yeah he lost 2.9 length against J’s Destiny at that fence 1.64 length on the field medium and lost 9.6

Miles hour um comparing the landing to the entry speed so that that is how significant that was and it kind of backs up what the ey told you the flip side is though is that jinny’s Destiny is an incredibly good jumper and his straightforwardness and the fact that

His jumping is an asset is going to win him more than his fair share of races for his entire career surely absolutely but that’s what you have the factor in when you’re looking at gr Dawn you look at his figure and watch he’s jumping on

The hole through the race he wants to be going further he needs to be going a fraction slower to J he jum they’re going up in trip he did do better at H do they’re going up in trip they both might meet again over three miles at Warick now Warick is a tricky

Jumping TR track that is surely going to even though it’s three miles that’s surely going to suit Jim stely well the five across the side in in warri puts a huge emphasis on jumping but um yeah you would have to think so unless you got really testing ground um I just think

Ray da needs to be gone a bit slower they’re both likable horses I think and Paul Nichols on of the view that Jin’s Destiny is just pushing under to stay away Fay and Mer’s Allen he’s got you know he’s got to make that jump up to that level but he’s improving all the

Time he has the yard sticks to judge him against and um he’s going definitely going in the right direction genus Destiny we had another excellent novic novice chasing performance at chelam over the weekend and it came in against season handicappers from five-year-old Broadway boy who is the apple of Willie

Twist and Davis’s eye he bought him and he’s also campaigned him well he has and and look Sam was good and positive on him jumped him out toon make to running jumped the First Fence really well well to claim that position I suppose you could say um round to the fourth last

First time good solid jump tricky enough friends protector that was really free at the back but Broadway boy did show his nous tendencies in the middle of the race he hit the 15 a good tump and then when he got to the last ditch he paddled

To get his way over it but then look the all bunched up at the 19th he was able to hang in there with handicappers he was really good at second last and again at the last fence really good jumping just the one or two obviousy ones in the

Middle but he’s a hor going the right direction but he had a good Mark he’s won a good pot um and he’s only f up yeah he he responded really well I think to that when he’s jumping became a bit shaky I loved his jumping in the closing

Stages Willie Tristan Davis he is his father’s son is thinking big he’s thinking of going to the Flur elas Chase and that means he could bump into the light of protector at L press stage star and I think I’m right in saying that that means that he’d be giving weight to

Protector at and L press Broadway boy in that race so that’s over 2 M 6 half fongs at linkfield and then he’s thinking and then he’s thinking Brian advisory rather than National hunt Chase obviously at the festival where would you go um I’m not a r trainer um he looks like

A brown advisory hor he could be a national home Chase horse i’ be letting him tell me in time I wouldn’t be making hard and fast plans just yet but um he’s only five Rising six over I really liked the debut of offenses of blood Destin I loved how he

Gained ground at his fences at nce he was really good um obviously four be five in a couple of weeks time but he was really good went to the First Fence clapped ey in it got in tight but he was really fast out through the air and the

Same at the second fence now he had hardwood in behind him who run really well in his debut um and look the sixth fence is really good nin fence it was just really good to watch he was so sure what he was doing until he got to the

Second last and he did hit the second last a good rub but then was good again at the last and dra out to the line to win well that was over two and a half he’d imagine the obvious place to go is the K I think it’s called at punches and

Early in January but it was a really taken performance and he has youth on his side doesn’t get the same weight allowances in the UK but um really a good performance and he’s jumping he was at school like a horse on Springs and he brought that to the rosse he really did

Um and he looked more tractable I mean he he he got himself in a bit of a state in the Triumph hurdle didn’t he he did but he hadn’t done a car or fairy house prior to that so whether that was just the traveling crowd the atmosphere trph

Is on going C day um yeah maybe that just all got to him but he’s only you he get over get he faces bigger tests ahead H and bigger tests are coming rather more quickly for other novice chases so we’re going to have a quick think about

The key novice chases over the Christmas period starting with the CTO star which is run on boxing day at Kempton over the King George course and distance there are the horses that are entered in it who do you see here as being the key players obviously Ginko after his run at

Sandam behind stay away Fay I think a really strong strongly Run Race of Kempton will probably suit him well heres Allen made a really pleasing pleasing debut at Newbery JN solid on the whole and he’s a very good horse I don’t know I wish we had the decks if

Will’s going to run either or maybe gr Clair West he won at nice um thought he jumped well just love to see him backing up performance he didn’t do that last year after he won a maiden hurle classic dream is in there as well we don’t know

What’s going to run but um it’s a decent race and of course you have the French House El France El France he’s gonna he’s quite difficult to get a a handle on I think giovino is going to be suited very much by Kempton you know we know

That he’s got that sort of tactical Pace that’s enabled him to to stay up there alen he I know it it’s his debut at Newbury but he he got out paced a little didn’t he and then came home very strongly I know he was going up in trip

Gone up in trip which should suit him uh but he was chasing a fair front run hor Le to get on with it and Nickelback I’d say it was a good first effort on offenses he have Lear plenty yes and he of course runs here with Napp as Hill

His stable companion having been sidelined that was the horse that was meant to be running here but unfortunately he’s picked up an injury which might C him out for the rest of the season so moving to leopardstown we’ve got the Racing Post novice Chase over two mile one and as I understand it

Ruby this race is being axed because the view is from the Irish jumps patent committee that there are too many similar kind of races horses being having overlapping entries in this in the fen Chase and also in the noville hotels yeah I’m not sure what exactly

Which group it came from but um the few are reading the statement in the paper anyway ldia looks like the two mile and one obviously SE time will be axed and Tre will become two and now they’re want to review the distances as well um of B

Races news coming in the in the New Year probably the three novice ches is too many at Christmas but I’m not sure the re in the right one I mean surely it’s the three mile I mean if you’re a stayer you go to the fen don’t you for two mile

Three and a half at limmerick and if you’re a quicker horse you want that two mile race you couldn’t agree more with you but look and you know again you know a three mile novice Chase is likely to be of lesser quality than a two- mile novice

Chase at this stage in a novice season sorry I I I I I I don’t agree with either and I was involved in some of those discussions it’s news to me okay all right let’s move that to one side to discuss in the new year and talk about this year’s

Events who are the key players for you Ruby uh definitely back to the Navan beginner Shas fad via and in the pocket and fad via holds the upper hand beat in the pocket by three lengths on this occasion he was three lengths in front of him in the Supreme and they finished

Second and fourth um and I think there’s more to come from in the pockets so I’d say they’re they’re the two main players after the IND the pocket was supplemented for this contest yeah and that that race has been since backed up by Spain’s Towers Victory but there are

There are plenty of others potentially in there um and we’ve talked about overlapping entries which I I take that point if we move to limmerick for the fen novices Chase um gayc Warrior is the one that immediately Springs to mind that this race is surely really well suited to I thought was going

Right-handed trip would look ideal at two and a half miles he was really good at punch of sound and but there’s some really good entries in here America might beat FAA file over two and a half at Navin and he’d be an interesting Runner and carus cross he

Holds this entry and the Nevels but look his novice at fairy house looked a really decent contest he’s behind range Clair West that n he improved to win at fairy house he’d be a big Runner there too we’re going to learn so much I think from from these races and then the

Neville hotels the the race that we would ask but nonetheless uh it looks like a very competitive contest it’s got the likes of fa Des Shamu and floring Porter Gavin Cromwell confirming at chelham last week when he was there that floring Porter would be running here yeah back going his favorite Direction

Left-handed and but look he did throw it away punches down a lot but I thought fa Shan de had came forward come forward from his run a goway behind aidel Fury as well so I think he’s a very good horse he could have classical dream or

Glance CR West or possibly both as well and you know they are deep contest classical dream was really good at thus jump like an Absolut book perhaps he go to kton um but look there’s there’s four noice races we’ve touched on Nidia and look they’re going to be really good

Race there won’t be massive Fields but there’ll be good races to watch they’ll be really informative and also we’ve got the waywood lad grade two as well on the day after boxing date at Kenton that’s over two miles so plenty of talk to talk about in the new Year so we’re going to sign off with the hurdlers uh but I should just mention that of course we’re looking forward to last season’s Supreme winner Marine National making his debut over fences hopefully in The Beginner’s chase at Leestown again so much to talk about

When we return to you in the new year uh let’s start by having a look at the uh Paddy Power future Champions novices hurdle shall we and having a think about that it’s over two miles it’s a grade one at leopardstown over Christmas who do you see from those entries there Ruby

As being the key contenders well don’t M has been really well back lyia since the entries or the forers come out for this race he was an impressive winner at down Royal and he beat fast Felix dere Conor odm he won a bumper a fairy house as

Well he’s been very good daddy longlegs is to the Forefront of the market for Willie Mullins but I thought looking at the anti poost prices it for me was overpriced fifth in the chelton the bumper fifth behind the dream to Shar again at punchestown and he beat cwell

Potter in a m hardle at punchestown Carwell Potter was subsequently gone to Na and absolutely boled in so thought they were big Runners maybe brighter days ahead as well um from the Philly section she was going to down Ro but it’s a deepen up Fest it is um I’m

Looking forward to that I’m also looking forward to the form be novice hurdle which is a new G Warner anry on boxing day it replaces the tolworth which is usually run at sandan on the first Saturday of the new year and I like this race they’ve been rewarded with some

Really goodlooking entries we’ve got the Royal Bond winner far and Glory we’ve got Look Away who’s just been second in the Greatwood a second season novice and a couple of novices I really like one of them Jango go by who I think did well to

Win at Ascot and this one knuk park I think he’s going to be so much better suited by anry compared with chelam where he won here yeah he did and he was a bit wavered at chelham ran left ran a bit right the only we don’t know I can’t

Remember it anyway but entry on the 26th December could be really deep BS this could be slow motion stuff H but Conor Park he definitely ran to 130 at chelam he beat in at ton de and yeah if he becomes a little B more rable he is a

Big engine so those are exciting there’ll be other excellent novice herd contests as well over the festive period but we’ve also got some grade ones amongst the uh horses that have already graduated to that level starting this very Saturday at Ascot with a long walk hurdle let’s have a look at the betting

For that West Balboa and crano who are rising stars potentially in this division they’ve been jousting it out uh for favorities and of course paisle Park won this race when it was rescheduled at Kempton on boxing day of last year champ had beaten previously in the longdistance hurdle they’re back again

As is dashel drasher what do you make of these these upstarts Ruby the likes the likes of crano who ran third at ha do last time we saw him and and B asked but when you watch crano at um ha do so going to the to last H Connor BR is

Riding he’s on the outside he looks pretty much like he’s fat to the boards and he does wander in behind the other horse is going to the second last cuz he’s hanging to his left and he eventually gets out to get running when he gets to the last H now slate Lane is

Home for all money at that stage fine margin is chasing up in second and crano is the one that’s finish him with gr g Road but I would have thought myself Paisley Park Dash jasher Borox has champ Etc would win off 139 it’s an insult isn’t it this B it’s

An insult surely I’m outraged how about the lik of can you imagine what Emma lll is thinking and Jeremy Scott um but John J West Balo look was was a good winner at entry and last two hles were bypassed only a three- Run Race dropped

In last H Miller’s Bank made the run and bwing up a storm challenged on one side west Balo on the other she quickened up well passing what should have been the last hurdle and went away to win she was obviously a good winner at entry um in a

Handicap hurdle back in April time and she beat pounding poet in M green but yeah I again think she has to go and approve a good bit she’s won her handicap off 135 and one off 142 Champs are 15 157 pezley Park 157 BX 152 dashel Dasher 159

Like I know I’m always giv out about the handicapper but he that wrong that crano and West Balo we going to do the business and champ it goes particularly well fresh as well let’s move on to the Christmas hurdle at leopardon over Christmas the Jack de bromhead Christmas

Hurdle over three miles now of course home by the Lee won this last year what did you make of his comeback yeah he’s come back was only okay and he look big and round but he won this race last year JJ S R him very wide on the track

Floring por was up front down the inside he got upsides on him at the third last he was in front at the second last and he did he dug in deep to repel Ashdale Bob flooring Porter and meet and greet his comeback room was okay um but he’ll

Have to have improved from it I think and I I think gardon’s Runner Irish point is really interesting here yeah um what what do you make of him he’s going up in trip of course to three miles yeah um I think he’s really relaxed way of

Going he won two and a half at entry already got beaten in the lawers over two three by Champ Kylie but I think he’s a nice relaxed horse he’s a s good jumper he’s not flamboyant he’s a good solid jumper I think he’d be an easy

Ride in a Tre M rest and he has a turn of foot at the end of it um I no interest in raing him but if I was raing he’s the one I’d like to be raing potentially we’ve got aerian fange who was a good second to classical dream at

Punch toown also sard potentially switching back to hurdles if he runs potentially yeah look for a balmore winner um obviously the hard didn’t look like he stayed in the in the b in the brown advisory but was only his second run of the season and had a heavy enough

Fall at this I don’t know as he going back over or if we drop down to two miles we’ve got Constitution Hill Harrah returning in the Christmas hurdle at Kempton a new Contender and rub Bard do you see the the outcome being any different to last year when was

Brilliant no uh he was brilliant and obviously Highway 102 made the run in Constitution took him took it off met the fort and he won as he liked rubo has he’s a proven front runner and I imagine Paul nickol would be in for second at

Worst so he’d be riding his horse to the best of his ability to win the other race I think that the Su Constitution Hill and I wouldn’t be surprised if niik takes it easy on okay and then we’ve got the mat of course at lepin over two

Miles again more of the same kind of horses are we expecting this to be a one-sided contest rather than the potential Clash that the entry suggest it could be I don’t know um obviously imper pass is still in there with statan and that race is not for another eight

Days or nine days um as we were recording but look statan was very good in it last year she’s electric made a running he got to the front gone to the second last was the last hardle they jumped and he sprinted when they passed the last h

Um it could well be I don’t know where think his name imper pass is going to go any chance Oban would be there I would be surprised if Oban is there um he’s back from Australia and absur might run all right in the no hard but um I think foran definitely looked a

Bit lighter when he got back than absur okay all right well we’ll find out what runs in the matth and let’s hope it is a good contest that’s our quick whip through what’s going on on this Christmas we of course will be back in the new year to talk about it every

Thursday at 9:00 starting on the 4th of January that is it for this week if you want more though my column is available online on racingtv.com rooch chelham and we will be back for an online special this will be on the racing tv YouTube page after racing on the 29th there’s

Going to be a mashup between Ruby and I the road to Shelton team and the let’s talk racing team of Josh Stacy and Andrew Blair White make sure you join us for that but in the we have to do we have to be nice to them do

We well I mean I don’t know why You’ change a habit of a lifetime maybe so you know you just you just be yourself thanks happy Christmas be nice and say say say happy Christmas to the nice people watching happy Christmas everyone see you see you in the new year

Uh for this show and we’ll see you for that special on the 29th PTY power sponsors of the road to chelham watch live racing now on racingtv.com