Geoff Ulrich gets you set for The Arnold Palmer Invitational with winning trends and his picks for your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups.
The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history, and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
The Field
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is a PGA signature event once again for 2025, featuring a limited field of 72 golfers with a $20 million prize purse up for grabs ($4 million to first). The event will have 2022 and 2024 winner Scottie Scheffler (and world No. 1) headlining. Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, and Tommy Fleetwood are also all in attendance as well.
This will be the third season that this tournament is played as a no-cut event, although it used to have reduced fields of 120 players, so the change isn’t that drastic. Winners at the API tend to be elite, as four of the last seven winners of this event have all won major championships at some point in their careers. International players have also won this event in five of the past 10 seasons.
Despite the event only featuring 72 players, it does have a cutline with only the top 50 players and ties — and anyone within 10 shots of the lead — qualifying for the final 36 holes. This makes it a little more interesting for DFS purposes, as most players will likely look to avoid the bottom tier of players to (hopefully) get 6/6 through the weekend.
The Course
Bay Hill—Orlando, FL.
Par 72, 7,466 yards
Bay Hill has hosted this event since its inception, but has undergone major renovations at points during the last decade. The course used to play as a par 70 between 2007 and 2009, but reverted back to a par 72 in 2010 and remains that way today. After 2014, fairways were widened in spots, with some overgrown rough and trees removed, making driving conditions a touch easier for the players on certain holes. New Bermuda greens were also added.
Lately, Bay Hill has been set up to play as one of the toughest on the PGA TOUR, with the rough typically playing to “major championship” caliber and the wind providing extra defense. The venue played as the hardest course on the PGA TOUR in 2020 — even compared to the major championship venues — and yielded just a 74.106 scoring average. In two of the last six seasons, the winning score has failed to exceed 5-under par, and in 2023, the winner posted 9-under. Last season, only two players reached double-digits under par, winner, Russell Henley (-11), and the second-place finisher, Morikawa (-10).
As mentioned above, Bay Hill features Bermuda greens and, as a traditional par 72, also features four par 5s, none of which play longer than 570 yards. As such, these holes will still yield a lot of birdies or better, and most of the past winners here have tended to dominate these holes during the week. With wider fairways, strokes gained off the tee stats don’t tend to matter as much as you would think they would on a longer course. Top finishers at Bay Hill tend to gain far more on approach than any other category, and with plenty of tough approaches into water-protected greens, it’s easy to see why. The 2022 winner, Scheffler, actually lost strokes off the tee but led the field in approach stats, and the 2023 winner, Kurt Kitayama, only gained 0.4 strokes OTT (but gained 7.7 strokes around the green + putting).
Last year’s winner, Henley, also did little to set himself apart off the tee, but was first in strokes gained around the green and 10th in strokes gained putting.
What sets Bay Hill apart from some of the other Florida courses is the abundance of longer approaches. Thanks to some doglegs and forced layup holes, players tend to see quite a few longer approach shots (>200 yards or more), so long iron proximity is another stat to focus on outside of the regular strokes gained categories.
The venue has been a lightning rod for major championship-quality players of late, with five of the past eight winners at Bay Hill now in possession of a major win, and last year’s runner-up Morikawa nearly added to that list.
And maybe that stat shouldn’t come as a huge shock. This is a venue that requires a good all-around game, good mental composure, and the ability to hit precision approaches on nearly every hole — just to avoid your ball meeting an untimely watery grave.
While Bay Hill is nowhere near a links venue, the ability to handle tougher, open-like conditions can certainly be seen in the past winner list here, with Open champions like McIlroy and Francesco Molinari on the list. Additionally, before his win at Bay Hill, Kitayama’s best finish on the PGA was a second-place finish at the Scottish Open, played at the Renaissance Club, a pure links venue over in Scotland. Players with good recent form and good results on those same sorts of stops can certainly be given extra attention this week.
2026 Weather Outlook: The weather at Bay Hill can be a little volatile, and stronger winds have affected the tournament before. This year, however, there doesn’t seem to be much to worry about, aside from the regular afternoon wind gusts. All four days have clear skies and almost no chance of rain. However, afternoon winds are common at this venue, and this year is no different. Starting Friday, you’ll see gusts of 15-20 mph in spots. Thursday doesn’t look much calmer, but later starters may have it slightly better than Friday afternoon starters. As always, check the forecast again before lineups lock on Wednesday for the best strategy.
Last Five Winners
2025 – Russell Henley -11 (over Collin Morikawa -10)
2024 – Scottie Scheffler -15 (over Wyndham Clark -10)
2023 — Kurt Kitayama -9 (over Rory McIlroy and Harris English -8)
2022 — Scottie Scheffler -5 (over three different players -4)
2021 — Bryson DeChambeau -11 (over Lee Westwood -10)
Winning Trends
10 of the past 11 winners of this event had recorded a T-17 or better finish at Bay Hill in a previous season before winning (except Kitayama 2023).
13 of the past 15 winners of this event had all played the API at Bay Hill the year prior and made the cut (exception: Scheffler 2022, Kitayama 2023).
Five of the past 10 winners have been international players.
Winners Stats
2025 Winner: Russell Henley (11-under par)
2025 lead-in form (T6-T39-T5-T10-T30)
SG: OTT—+1.3
SG: APP—+1.3
SG: Total—+12.7
SG: ATG—+6.3
SG: PUTT—+3.6
Overall, this is more of a pure ball-strikers course than a bomber’s paradise, and still a venue where good iron play, generally, must include good putting/around the green for a big week.
Winners and top finishers at Bay Hill gain more strokes on approach/putting than any other category (almost equal distribution).
2022 winner Scheffler gained the most strokes on approach of any of the past seven winners but also had a great week on the greens, gaining 4.3 strokes.
2023 winner Kitayama gained 3.3 strokes on approach but was better than Scheffler ATG (+2.1 strokes) and gained 5.6 strokes putting.
Last season, Henley led the field in strokes gained around the green (+6.3) but also excelled putting and was consistent with his ball-striking
Despite Bay Hill being long and holding four par 5s, we can’t describe it as a bombers course, as many of the longer holes still require players to place the ball off the tee and stress long iron approaches (Scheffler in 2022 and Kitayama in 2023 gained less than 1.0 strokes OTT).
Shorter hitters like Henley, Tyrrell Hatton and Molinari have all found wins at this venue recently, and in 2022, Chris Kirk, Hatton and Billy Horschel all finished inside the top five.
Approaches from >200 yards are the most common of any at this venue; GIR percentages are quite a bit lower compared to the PGA TOUR average; and driving accuracy tends to be slightly higher than average.
Finding Values on DraftKings Sportsbook
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Sam Burns +4200 and $8,000
Comparables:
Rickie Fowler +4500 and $8,000
Shane Lowry +4900 and $8,100
Kurt Kitayama +4400 and $8,200
Jordan Spieth +5600 and $7,400
Comparables:
Akshay Bhatia +6000 and $7,500
Pierceson Coody +5800 and $7,600
Jacob Bridgeman +5800 and $7,700
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook are subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
(These players have had a lot of success at this event over their careers.)
1. Scottie Scheffler ($14,100; best finishes: win-2024 and 2022): Scheffler has had a ridiculous run at this venue, landing two wins and a T-3 finish at Bay Hill over the past four seasons. A target golf monster, this entire Feb-March swing from Phoenix to Florida has been his realm, and he leads the field in strokes gained total stats at this venue, despite only playing this event for the past five seasons.
2. Rory McIlroy ($11,600; best finishes: win-2018, T2-2023): There’s something about Bay Hill that suits McIlroy’s eye, as the Northern Irishman comes into this year’s version flashing finishes of T-2, T-5, and a victory at this venue over the past seven seasons. He’s yet to miss the cut at Bay Hill over his last nine starts and has finished T-15 or better at Bay Hill in seven of the past eight seasons.
3. Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,800; best finishes: 2nd-2019, T9-2020, and 2022): Fitzpatrick has been close to grabbing a win multiple times at this venue. The Englishman is a terrific Bermuda putter and has been extremely comfortable playing around this more precision-based venue. His MC from 2024 at Bay Hill was his first here in over five years, but he bounced back in 2025 with a T22, and is someone who can pop here anytime given his ability with the flatstick.
4. Sung-jae Im ($6,500; best finishes: T3-2020 + 2019): Im has been a beast on the Florida swing for much of his career. He picked up a win at another tough Florida venue in PGA National back in 2020 and has finished top-five at Bay Hill twice already in five career starts. He’s making his first start of the season this week (wrist), but if any course can bring out his A-game, it’s Bay Hill, which has been one of his best tracks on the circuit.
5. Chris Kirk ($6,500; best finishes: T5-2022 + T8-2021): Kirk ranks ninth in strokes gained total stats over the last seven seasons at Bay Hill, posting top-10 finishes at this event in two of the past five seasons. He hasn’t had the greatest start to the season, but did finish T22 at this event last year, and makes sense for stars and scrubs GPP builds this week in DFS.
Recent Form
1. Scottie Scheffler ($14,100, T12-T3-win) – Scheffler started slow at the Genesis but recovered for a top 15 finish and now comes in off a week of rest. He likely finishes top five again at his favorite venue.
2. Collin Morikawa ($9,600, T7-win) – Morikawa looks brimming with confidence. If the putter stays hot, there is no reason he can’t find another win in Florida this month.
3. Shane Lowry ($8,100, T2-T24-T8) – Two top 10s in three starts. The meltdown last week was brutal, but Lowry is displaying his normal elite efficiency in the short game and on approaches.
4. Jacob Bridgeman ($7,700, win-T8) – A career run that includes a win two weeks ago at Riviera. Regression may be coming soon, but riding him while he’s hot makes sense.
5. Akshay Bhatia ($7,500, T16-T6-T3) – Bhatia has had a strong start to 2026. Florida was good to him last season, but he’ll need more consistency off the tee.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Big Field Punt plays:
Patrick Rodgers ($6,400): Rodgers has found some success on tougher courses this season, and his short game has carried him in spots. If he can keep his approach game level, he’s shown enough to grind out a top 20 if the putter and ATG game stay hot.
Tom Hoge ($6,300): Hoge is probably just as likely to miss the cut as he is to make it, but when he does find the weekend, he often outperforms. As a two-time top-10 finisher at Sawgrass, there is no reason not to think he can’t outperform this week too if the short game holds up.
Core Plays:
Ludvig Aberg ($8,400): Aberg could easily be close to 10k in price this week had he posted one good finish on the west coast swing. An illness slowed him early on, but he put in three very solid rounds to close out Genesis. Take advantage of these low prices while you can.
Shane Lowry ($8,100): Yes, he collapsed last week, but you shouldn’t ignore 68 holes of great play. He’s exceedingly cheap at $8,100 and finished top five at this event last season.
Contrarian Click:
Harris English ($8,900): I think the feeling for most people lineup building will be to pay up above English in the 9k range or go down take advantage of some discounts on elite names like Viktor Hovland or Aberg. That should leave English lower-owned on a week where his par-saving ability and general elite putting make him very well-suited for this venue.
MY PICK: Si Woo Kim ($9,200)
I don’t see any reason why Si Woo Kim can’t make his breakthrough this week. He’s been one of the best tee to green players on the season through the first couple months (second as of this week) and still gained 3.2 strokes on approach at the Genesis, and over 1.1 strokes around the green, despite a poor T34 finish at Riviera.
Kim has struggled traditionally at Bay Hill, but he has been steadier of late, posting a T30 in 2024 and a career-best T19 in 2025. A winner at Sawgrass and other venues like Sedgefield and TPC Stadium that line up well with Bay Hill, there is no logical reason for him not to find a big week here soon.
At 9.2k, he’s in the range of players that are cheap enough to fit into Scheffler lineups as a second-man in, and certainly can be part of balanced builds for DFS GPP lineups (without Scheffler) as well. For betting, taking another shot on him at +3200 on DraftKings Sportsbook is another great way to get exposure to his upside this week.
MY SLEEPER: Sahith Theegala ($6,800)
I like the way Theegala has started his season. Six starts have yielded three top 20s and two top 10 finishes, one of which came on another target golf course in Palm Springs at the American Express. On top of the solid placings, Theegala has also showcased the sort of control needed to win around Bay Hill. He’s been gaining on approach at better rates than he has in years past and is coming off a solid ball-striking week at the Genesis, where he fell back to T22, but still managed to gain 2.0 strokes on approach and shot 68-67 on the weekend to end his tournament.
Experience-wise, Theegala has shown us he likely has what it takes to find a win someday on these challenging Florida layouts. He’s played extremely well at the stadium setup in Phoenix, posted a T9 at TPC Sawgrass, and placed T6 at Bay Hill back in 2024. His ability around the green is more than capable of carrying him for stretches as well.
At just $6,800 this week, he’s an easy value add and a player I’d want to take in the placing markets on DraftKings Sportsbook, where he’s +550 for a top 10 (incl. ties) and +1325 for a top 5 (incl. ties).