Zach Thompson details some of his Round 1 best bets for the Cognizant Classic this week at PGA National.
After back-to-back Signature Events and with another one at Bay Hill next week, many of the biggest names on the PGA TOUR are taking a bye week this week, but that doesn’t mean there’s not plenty of excitement and intrigue available. The Cognizant Classic is teeing it up at The Champion Course of PGA National for the 20th straight year, and the “Bear Trap” will be looking to claim more victims this season. With water in play on almost all holes, scoring is extremely volatile and the leaderboard is constantly shifting and changing. Let’s take a look at what to expect this week and pick out a few Cognizanc Classic best bets for Round 1.
We’re done with the portion of the schedule that utilizes course rotations, so all rounds this week are on the same 18-hole layout. The changes the last few years have made the par-71 more scorable overall, but the water hazards still lurk to create high scores at any time.
You can build your betting card on DraftKings Sportsbook at any time throughout the tournament with a wide variety of offerings, including everything from single-player props to full-field scoring props and everything from one-hole results to where a specific player will place for the entire four-round event.
In this post, we’ll focus on my three best bets for Round 1. The early tee times are expected to have a slight advantage based on the weather forecast, with winds picking up in the afternoon.
3 Ball – Round 1: Karl Vilips (+190) over Garrick Higgo and Davis Riley
At 7:300 a.m. ET, the trio of Garrick Higgo, Karl Vilips and Davis Riley tee off from the 10th hole of PGA National. All three of these players under 30 have won on the PGA TOUR, but each has posted volatile results from week to week.
Both Higgo and Riley have two PGA TOUR career wins, while Vilips has won just once. However, I like the odds at aboug 2:1 for Vilips to pull out the win for Round 1.
I highlighted Vilips in my top fantasy golf pivot plays, since he comes to this event with good momentum and had success at PGA National last year, finishing T39 in his debut last year just a week before he won in Puerto Rico. He started this season with a T18 at The American Express and a solid T38 at the Farmers Insurance Open before missing the cut at the WM Phoenix Open.
The 24-year-old has the potential to go off and contend if he’s at his best. He ranks in the top 15 in the field for Total Strokes Gained over his last 16 rounds and the top 10 in Total Strokes Gained over the last 12 rounds. With his short game on point, he just needs his driver and approach game to catch up.
In contrast, Higgo has struggled early in the season, missing three cuts in his four events. The only time he played the weekend, he finished T60 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in a no-cut event. Last week, he crashed out of The Genesis Invitational with back-to-back rounds of 76. He has a good history at this tournament, but his recent form has been shaky.
Riley won the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge for his most recent PGA TOUR win, and last year he finished No. 79 in the FedExCup Fall standings. His T2 at the PGA Championship showed his high ceiling, but he missed the cut or finished outside the top 65 in each of his last four tournaments of the year.
In 2026, he spiked for a T6 in Hawaii before missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open and the WM Phoenix Open.
It’s a volatile group on a volatile course, so it should be an action-packed prop. While Riley and Higgo have spike potential, Vilips is the more well-rounded player at this point based on his recent form, and his success here last year gives him a good shot to start fast this week.
Ricky Castillo o4.5 Birdies or Better (+100)
Another young player looking to make a statement this week is Florida alumnus Ricky Castillo. Castillo finished No. 102 in the FedExCup Fall standings in 2025, so he’s playing on conditional status this season.
He made the cut in all three of his events to start 2026, though, finishing T31, T44 and T43. He had four birdies or better in Round 1 at Waialae in his first event of the year, and in his second tournament, he started with a blistering five straight birdies, finishing with eight birdies or better. He had five birdies or better in Round 1 at the Farmers Insurance Open as well, going over this prop line in two of his three Round 1’s this season.
PGA National should be a good setup for the former-Gator, and last year he finished T56 in his tournament debut. He had four birdies or better in Round 1 and six birdies or better in Round 3 in similar scoring conditions to what he’ll face this week.
It will likely be close, but at even money, I’ll take him to make at least five birdies in calm scoring conditions at his 8:21 a.m. ET start time.
Matchup (3 Way) – Round 1 Rasmus Hojgaard (-104) over Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
For the third play in my Congizant Classic best bets for Round 1, let’s look to the afternoon matchups. In one head-to-head matchup, it’s a battle of two Danish options as Rasmus Hojgaard takes on Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson. Hogjaard is the favorite, but I’m confident enough to play this as a “3 Way” matchup, which scores a tie score as a loss rather than a push. To win this prop at about even money, Hojgaard will need to have a lower score than his countryman, who tees off about an hour after him.
Hojgaard will play alongside Tom Kim and Michael Thorbjornsen at 12:35 p.m. ET, while Neergaard-Petersen is playing with Isaiah Salinda and A.J. Ewart at 1:23 p.m. ET.
In his debut at this event in 2024, Hojgaard missed the cut, while Neergaard Petersen will be making his debut this week. Both players have had success on the DP World Tour, with Hojgaard claiming five career wins and Neergaard-Petersen winning the Crown Australian Open for his first DP World Tour win last December.
Neergaard-Peterson followed up that win with a 19th place finish at the Dubai Invitational and a T45 at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic in January. He came to the PGA TOUR after that and made the cut with a T49 at the Farmers Insurance Open and a T41 at the WM Phoenix Open.
Hojgaard’s finishes have been a little better on the PGA TOUR this season, with a T30 at the Farmers and a T24 in Phoenix. He also had a pair of high finishes last fall with a T3 last fall at the Sanderson Farms Championship and a seventh-place at the DP World Tour Championship.
Hojgaard ranks in the top 10 in the field in Total Strokes Gained and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee in both the last 12 and the last 20 rounds. He’s also been an excellent putter on Bermuda greens over the last few years, and he should be able to let his flat stick shine in Round 1 if he is able to set up birdie chances like he has so far this season.
Both players are solid picks this week, but Hojgaard is the more proven PGA TOUR option and should be able to outscore the “other” Rasmus in Round 1.