Golf betting tips: Bahrain Championship final round
1.5pts Grant Forrest to win the Bahrain Championship at 12/1 (General)
0.5pt Mikael Lindberg to win the Bahrain Championship at 30/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
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Through two rounds of the Bahrain Championship, the two best putters had spreadeagled the field at a course with greens which might generously be described as a bit silly.
Perhaps that element helps explain why Dylan Frittelli won here at a massive price and while Laurie Canter was close to favourite last year, his victory was gift-wrapped by a three-putting Pablo Larrazabal. Canter took it with both hands but had Larrazabal won, we’d have had two winners known for being wild, but supremely gifted around the greens.
It was on the greens that Calum Hill reached 16-under by halfway and that’s where he remains after a better finish to the third round. He’d wobbled early, three bogeys across the opening six holes all coming courtesy of short missed putts, but a better back-nine has him back in front, with two shots in hand over Freddy Schott.
The German – a talented but wayward powerhouse who can on his day make everything he looks at – played beautifully for 11 holes to close a four-shot gap, but three bogeys over the next seven, including a three-putt at the final hole, saw him fall two behind his playing partner. Both players showed signs of nerves and there are plenty within the chasing pack who will regret not edging closer still.
But Hill had one player within six heading into the round and there are now 17 of them, so there’s work to do. I felt an under-par weekend would probably be enough to win and would just about stick to that assessment, though 71 to achieve that goal would undoubtedly give others a sniff. This is a hard golf course on which to be defensive and Hill needs to begin the final round as he ended the third one: on the front foot.
Twice a winner at this level but never from the front, Hill is firmly the man to beat but 11/8 is no gift. That price shapes a market which probably ought to be more open, and to small stakes I’ll happily take GRANT FORREST and MIKAEL LINDBERG against him.
These are the two powerhouses closest to Schott on the leaderboard and that’s by design, as we’re looking for a 65 from one of the chasing pack and it’s most likely to come from a player of this kind of profile. Schott and Alejandro del Rey shot the two lowest scorers in round one, Hill was best in round two, and Lindberg matched Patrick Reed in round three.
Reed is a more likely winner of course but there’s half a chance he runs out of gas at the end of a fortnight in the spotlight and I prefer the other two at the odds, particularly Forrest. He’s a two-time DP World Tour winner, he’ll love the idea of having a crack at his compatriot, and he’s shot 66-67 over the last two days thanks largely to his imperious driving.
Lindberg has been even better off the tee and finally got a putt to drop on the 18th hole on Saturday, both he and Forrest having missed their share so far this week. Neither is a habitually bad putter though and the formula here increasingly looks like a long driver who makes putts, a description which fits the leader to a degree (he’s not as long), but particularly these two plus the man in second, Schott.
Lindberg has been playing well for many months, too; ever since a top-five finish in the Danish Golf Championship, after which came another at the Dunhill Links. Both favour players who can open their shoulders, drive greens, pick up chip-and-putt birdies and perhaps the odd eagle. Those dynamics are in play here and Lindberg has an extra gear off the tee, which led to an eagle on Saturday when he drove the 10th green.
Forrest by the way was the winner when he and Hill shared the lead heading into round four of the Hero Open almost five years ago, one of two instances where the latter has had such an opportunity and faltered. He won from off the pace a week later and then last spring captured the SA Open having trailed by eight shots entering the final round, so will know more than most that the job is far from done.
At the odds, taking two big hitters with putting potential is more appealing than the two major champions, Reed and Sergio Garcia, though both are respected ahead of a fascinating final round. If Hill does fend them all off, he’ll have had to work hard for it.
Posted at 14:45 GMT on 31/01/26
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