As the NFL steps aside for a week, the PGA Tour takes center stage with the Farmers Insurance Open, which always feels like the unofficial start of the season. Big-time venue, big-time field, big-time TV network. Torrey Pines always gets the people going.
Speaking of getting going, Ludvig Aberg is going to try and get his season going for the second time in 2026. Last week, he got off to a flying start at the AMEX, but had to withdraw due to illness. If that sounds familiar, the same thing happened a year ago at this tournament, which Aberg led after Round 1 but faded with a nasty illness that saw him WD from the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am the following week. Two weeks later, however, he returned to Torrey Pines to win the Genesis Invitational.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line.
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Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open:
Farmers Insurance Open picks 2026: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Cameron Young (22-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — At a difficult, driver-heavy course why not back the top driver in the field with a penchant for attacking leaderboards at difficult tracks. Cam Young’s breakthrough at the Wyndham was great and everything, but a win at Torrey Pines firmly puts him into the conversation as a legit majors contender. If you’re with me, I convinced a Canadian Sportsbook to boost Young’s betting number to highest anywhere in the world. Join me if you like.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Cameron Young (22-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — One of the best drivers on the planet, Cameron Young, significantly improved his putting last season. Since the Masters, Cameron has outputted the field in 16 of 18 starts. That doesn’t even count the masterful match-play effort he made at the Ryder Cup. Young’s ready for a career year, and Torrey Pines is a great place to start. A perfect fit for Cam’s ball-striking, the putter now makes him a favorite to win.
Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Betsperts: Ludvig Aberg (18-1, BetMGM) — We’re getting a discount on Ludvig Aberg after he withdrew from last week’s AmEx after the second round due to illness. I’m buying the dip here. Aberg, who was going off the board around 11-1 at last year’s Farmers Insurance Open, appeared to be in command of that event, firing an opening round 63 on the North Course before a stomach bug wreaked havoc on him. He returned a few weeks later, winning the Genesis Invitational at Torrey South after the wildfires in California forced the event out of Riviera. He was built in a lab for venues like this.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Justin Rose (60-1, BetMGM) — I don’t care about the MC last week at AMEX. J-Rose played some great golf last year—winning the FedEx St. Jude, taking Rory McIlroy to a playoff at the Masters and contending at Pebble Beach. He comes back to Torrey Pines where he won in 2019 and has strong history. I think the number’s too good to pass up.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Jason Day (28-1, BetRivers) — Day’s always an intriguing play at Torrey Pines. Add in the fact he kicked off the season strongly with a T-2 at the AMEX last week, where he ranked first in the field in total strokes-gained, and that makes him an auto-click at 28-1.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Taylor Pendrith (40-1, BetRivers) — Taylor Pendrith has finished top 10 in his last two appearances at Torrey Pines and he possesses the ideal skill set of power off the tee, solid short game, and a ton of putting upside that is typically a recipe for success at Torrey.
Past results: We posted 13 individual victories in 2025 and we’ve been all over the board already in 2026 with two experts having close calls on Ryan Gerard (Sony Open) and Si Woo Kim (AMEX).
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Farmers Insurance Open picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Mayo: Pierceson Coody (66-1, BetRivers) — Coody made all five cuts in the swing season and has opened 2026 with a pair of top 15 finishes. He’s first in SG/off-the-tee over the past six months with his lethal combo of distance (third) and accuracy (35th) to compliment his improving short game (26th in the field over the past six months).
Stewart: Sam Stevens (45-1, BetMGM) — Sam Stevens is one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the PGA Tour. Stevens has gained off the tee against the field in his last 14 measured events. When the driver helps you separate, Sam shows up. Stevens finished runner-up here one year ago and at TPC Twin Cities and TPC San Antonio in his career. Two more very difficult driving courses. Sixth at The American Express, Stevens’ iron game is also peaking in time for a return trip to Torrey Pines.
Noonan: Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson (75-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Rasmus Neergaad-Petersen just won the DP World Tour’s Australian Open in early December, taking home the title against a field that included Rory McIlroy, Joaquin Niemann, Min Woo Lee, Adam Scott, Si Woo Kim, and Cameron Smith. RNP can dial up distance if he needs it, as we saw at Oakmont back in June, when he finished T-12 and ranked seventh in SG/tee-to-green for the week. His putter runs hot and cold, but this is a talented young player, and one I think can make some noise on the PGA Tour this season.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Tony Finau (175-1, DraftKings) — I’m a sucker, but I’ll never get over this number. Yes, he might be washed, but he’s got the best SG/total numbers at Torrey Pines out of anyone with at least two appearances. His power, strength out of the rough, and scrambling should always allow him to be in the mix. Luck into a couple putts and you won’t be kicking yourself for passing up this number.
Powers, Golf Digest: Patrick Rodgers (60-1, BetMGM) — Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but I love Patrick Rodgers this week. Seriously, though, he always plays well in California, particularly here at Torrey Pines, where he has four top 10s in his last 11 trips. P-Rodge has been eyeing a maiden victory for over a decade, but he feels as close as ever in 2026. Rodgers has finished T-7 or better in three of his last five PGA Tour starts.
Lack: Patrick Rodgers (60-1, BetMGM) — Patrick Rodgers was my long shot pick last week as well, and while he certainly didn’t contend to win the tournament, he still gained 3.5 strokes on approach in his two rounds at the Stadium Course. Rodgers is also a Stanford grad who has played great in California and finished top 10 at both Torrey Pines events last year.
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Farmers Insurance Open picks 2026: Players We’re Fading
Mayo: Hideki Matsuyama (28-1, BetRivers) — Basically, in order for Hideki to get you at Torrey Pines he’ll need to both drive and putt well over his usual baseline. And I’lll bet against that.
Stewart: Ludvig Aberg (16-1, BetRivers) — We took a wait-and-see attitude with Ludvig Aberg last week, and he withdrew from the tournament. Many will look back to his Genesis win on the South Course last February, but I’m looking ahead to this week. Too many unknowns still exist for us to back this wonderkid in his second event of the season.
Noonan: Ryan Gerard (33-1, BetMGM) — Ryan Gerard is just 26 years old, so he’s far from a finished product, but we have a decent sample of starts that show he’s not as good as his recent results suggest. Gerard finished second at the AfrAsia Bank Mauritius Open in December, an event with a worse field than most Korn Ferry Tour stops, before back-to-back runner-up finishes at Waialae and PGA West. He played well here in his debut last season (T-15), but his current prices are outside of my comfort zone.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Patrick Cantlay (20-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — The California native’s poor history in this event is surprising—he’s never finished better than 50th in four appearances at the Farmers Insurance Open. I’ll wait till Pebble and Riviera, where has much better history, to consider betting him.
Powers, Golf Digest: Ludvig Aberg (16-1, BetRivers) — Another illness in Cali? Tough immune system to trust at 16-1. Get well soon, Ludvig.
Lack: J.J. Spaun (30-1, BetRivers) — Despite J.J. Spaun being a San Diego native, that has not yet translated to success at Torrey Pines. His lack of distance tends to hurt him on this course, and his elite driving accuracy is significantly diminished.
Farmers Insurance Open picks 2026: Matchups
Mayo: Jake Knapp (+105) over Wyndham Clark (Coolbet) — I actually like both this week but it stood out to me that Knapp is well ahead of Clark in the winner, top 5, top 10, etc. markets, yet is a plus-money dog against him in a head-to-head.
Stewart: Harris English (-118) over Will Zalatoris (BetMGM) — The defending champion is well-suited to contend again at the Farmers. Harris English will find fairways and greens on this U.S. Open venue. His steady approach has produced nine weekend runs in 12 starts at Torrey. Will Zalatoris has one PGA Tour start under his belt since returning from surgery. He played well at The American Express, but this is a whole different examination. Will likes the West Coast events, but you’ll love this H2H come Sunday afternoon.
Noonan: Michael Thorbjornsen (-105) over Garrick Higgo (BetOnline) — Other than making 10-foot putts for the team of his youth, the Boston Common Frogs, Thorbjornsen’s greatest assets are his length off the tee and long-iron play. Thorbjornsen is elite off the tee and ranks fourth in Going for the Green proximity yards and second in overall Greens in Regulation percentage over the past 12 months. His sample of putting on California Poa is small, but he was a two-time All-American and top-ranked PGA Tour U player in the 2024 class while at Stanford.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Patrick Rodgers (-120) over Garrick Higgo (Bet365) — I’ll join in on the Higgo fading. His longer-term form on SG/approach and performance on long, tough courses is enough to fade him over Rodgers, who showed his game’s firing on all cylinders nearly winning the Sony. And Rodgers seems to always play well at Torrey.
Powers, Golf Digest: Michael Thorbjornsen (-105) over Garrick Higgo (BetOnline) — Stealing this one from Noonan because I thought it was a mistake when I saw it. Higgo thrives at shorter, positional, coastal tracks, and has a rather weak record at Torrey Pines. Thorbjornsen has only played Torrey Pines once, missing the cut a year ago, but we can chalk that up to rookie inexperience. This place should accentuate all his strengths, ideally making this an easy winner.
Lack: Hideki Matsuyama (-120) over J.J. Spaun (Book) — This is an easy one, as Hideki Matsuyama is one of my favorite plays on the slate and J.J. Spaun is in my fade category. Hideki has been on a tear recently, winning the Hero World Challenge and finishing 13th at the Sony Open, and he’s got a rock-solid resume at Torrey Pines as well.
Matchup Results from the AMEX: Stewart: 1 for 1 (Hall (-118) over Straka); Lack: 1 for 1 (Burns (+100) over Aberg); Powers: 1 for 1 (Burns (+100) over Aberg); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Griffin (-110) over MacIntyre); Noonan: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from the 2026 season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Stewart: 2-0-0 (up 1.8 units); Lack: 2-0-0 (up 1.77 units); Powers: 1-1-0 (even units); Mayo: 1-1-0 (down 0.09 units); Noonan: 0-2-0 (down 2 units); Hennessey: 0-2-0 (down 2 units)
Farmers Insurance Open picks 2026: Top 10s
Mayo: Nicolai Hojgaard (+600, BetRivers) — Nicolai was trending better towards the end of last season with three top-15 finishes over his final five PGA Tour starts including a T-4 in Scotland and a T-14 at the Open. He’s made four starts worldwide since, going T-3/T-11 in the DP World Tour playoffs, and a T-52/T-4 run through Dubai the past two weeks. Nicolai’s fifth in the field in ball speed, third in distance, and earned a silver medal in his first and only start at the Farmers in 2024.
Stewart: Jason Day (+360, FanDuel) — In 16 Farmers starts at Torrey Pines, Jason Day has seven top 10s and two wins. Fresh off a runner-up finish in Palm Desert, Day is poised to make another run along the Torrey cliffs. Jason’s high left-to-right ball flight and awesome short game are a perfect complement for the North and South Courses. Day gained more strokes tee-to-green at the AMEX than Scottie Scheffler. Let’s ride this Aussie’s recent wave with the benefit of 10 places.
Noonan: Maverick McNealy (+360, FanDuel) — Maverick McNealy’s ball speed was up quite a bit at Waialae, and if those gains are real, I think he’s set up to be very competitive this week. He played well at other long courses with difficult scoring conditions last, including the Memorial (T-5), BMW (solo third), and a runner-up to Aberg at Torrey South’s Genesis. McNealy calls Las Vegas home these days, but he’s California-born and raised, and is very familiar with the unique demands of Poa Annua greens. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Patrick Rodgers (+600, Bet365) — I will certainly be betting P-Rodg out of FOMO so I can root along with CP. But in all honesty, this is the bet to make. Rodgers will probably make some tragic error late but end up near the top of the leader board. Powers, Golf Digest: Tony Finau (+1200, BetRivers) — As shocking as it is to see these prices for Tony at Torrey, it’s warranted given how he’s played over the last year. After beginning 2025 ranked 24th in the world, Finau fell to 107th after a third consecutive missed cut last week. There were some signs of life at AMEX, where Finau gained 1.2 strokes with his irons in his only round on the Stadium Course. By the way, do you know where Finau’s last top 10 on the PGA Tour was? The Genesis Invitational last February…which was played at Torrey Pines. Could be the ultimate get-right spot. Lack: Rasmus Hojgaard (+550, Bet365) — Rasmus Højgaard has an awesome skill set for Torrey Pines, and dating back to August, Hojgaard has seven top-25 finishes in his last nine starts. Hojgaard logged a solid 44th-place finish where he gained putting and in both ball-striking categories. I expect him to improve upon that this week at an even better golf course for him. Top-10 results from the AMEX: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Si Woo Kim +320); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from the 2026 season: Lack: 1 for 2 (up 5 units); Stewart: 1 for 2 (up 3.1 units); Powers: 1 for 2 (up 3.1 units); Mayo: 1 for 2 (up 2.2 units); Noonan: 0 for 2 (down 2 units); Hennessey: 0 for 2 (down 2 units) About our experts Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
