Geoff Ulrich gets you set for The American Express with winning trends and his picks for your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups.
The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $600K Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
The Field
This is a full-field event with 156 golfers, and also the first of two pro-am events featured in the early part of the season. Each pro will be paired with an amateur for the first three rounds of this event, and the cut will be placed after 54 holes this week, with only the top 65 and ties playing the final round on Sunday.
Three courses will be in play, with TPC Stadium (the host course) hosting the final round. The venues in play are some of the easiest on the PGA TOUR, and this event almost always ends up being an outright sprint — with the winner often coming in at 25 under or better. Last year’s winner, Sepp Straka, posted -25 to win by two over Justin Thomas.
The field for this year’s event is solid from a strength perspective once again. There are five top-10 players from the OWGR in the field, including world number one Scottie Scheffler. Big names like Patrick Cantlay and Ludvig Aberg are also making their season debut. Past winners of the American Express in the field this week include Si Woo Kim, Nick Dunlap, and last year’s winner Sepp Straka.
The Course
PGA West—Palm Springs, California
TPC Stadium (home course, played twice) 7,113 yards, par 72
La Quinta Country Club: 7,060 yards, par 72
Nicklaus Tournament 7,159 yards, par 72
The tournament this week will again be played on a three-course rotation. The 54-hole cut means that every player in the field will get a shot at playing all three courses once before the cut moves the remaining players in the event over to the Stadium Course for the final round.
Both La Quinta and the Nicklaus Tournament venue play as very short par 72s and pop up as some of the easiest to score on every season. The rough at both courses is non-penal, and there’s little in the way of dangerous hazards. For showdown purposes, understanding where your player will be teeing off for each round will be crucial this week. Given that the Nicklaus Course still plays slightly tougher (and features slightly more bunkers and dangerous approaches), you should be giving heavier weight to anyone playing La Quinta, with the Stadium being the worst draw for your player. All of these courses offer chances for your player to go low; however, the TPC Stadium has gotten easier from an average scoring perspective over the past few seasons.
The Stadium course can stretch to 7,300 yards, although generally, it will set up at around 7,000-7,150 yards for the week — making distance less of a factor. Players can still be aggressive as the rough is kept low, but the sight lines and setup on this Dye design mean there will be lots of places where the play off the tee will be less than driver. The most popular range on approach tends to be from 150-175 yards, which again speaks to the fact that laying back off the tee will be necessary on at least some of the par 4s.
The course also shares a lot of similarities with its more famous sister venue — TPC Sawgrass down in Florida. Water comes into play on seven holes, and the 17th is a near replica of the famous par-3 island green 17th at Sawgrass. There’s a ton of sand here, too, with over 90 bunkers. Despite smaller greens and lots of bunkers, scrambling rates at TPC Stadium are higher than the PGA TOUR average, and around-the-green play (while always important) hasn’t been a huge factor for most of the past winners.
That could change this year, however, with new greens having been installed at the Stadium. They actually enlarged the green surfaces a touch, but the overall firmness and the fact that they can now hide pins better will likely make this a tougher test. It’s not a huge change, but scrambling could be a bigger factor in 2026 than in years past. Last year, Straka had a great all-around game that saw him gain over 1.0 strokes around the green but over 3.0 strokes putting. Overall, this is still a course where approach play (specifically short iron play) and putting (from 10-25 feet) will be most key.
One final note on putting: the easier setup generally means players will be closer to the hole here on approach than at tougher courses. There’s often a spike in birdie opportunities from 20 feet and in (compared to other PGA TOUR venues), so looking at players with solid make rates from that distance is something else to consider this week.
2026 Weather Update: The four-day weather forecast for the 2026 American Express tournament shows a transition from cool, overcast conditions at the start to warmer, clearer weather by the weekend. Thursday begins with partly sunny skies and a high of 70°F. On Friday, the weather becomes more variable, with temperatures remaining at 70°F, but cloud cover increases, leading to a higher probability of light rain during the day and a 65%–75% chance of showers overnight. If this happens, the course will be significantly softened up for Saturday, where a low score could be achieved. Saturday sees a return to full sunshine, with a high of 22°C (72°F) and moderate 6 mph winds. The forecast concludes on Sunday, January 25, with the warmest and most stable weather, featuring clear skies and a high of 23°C (73°F), ideal for the final round. Overall, expect low scores on the weekend, with the first couple of days being slightly tougher. I don’t see a ton of higher winds in the forecast, but if the softer conditions do come on Saturday, it could give those playing TPC Stadium that day an advantage, as that is the toughest venue and most affected by poor weather or wind.
Last 5 winners
2025–Sepp Straka -25 (over Justin Thomas -23)
2024–Nick Dunlap -29 (over Christiaan Bezuidenhout -28)
2023-Jon Rahm -27 (over Davis Thompson -26)
2022-Hudson Swafford -23 (over Tom Hoge -21)
2021-Si Woo Kim -23 (over Patrick Cantlay -22)
Winning Trends
14 of the past 16 winners of this event played in one of the two season-opening events in Hawaii in the year of their respective wins — the exception was Bill Haas in 2015 and Nick Dunlap in 2024.
Of the past 13 winners, eight played in the Sony Open the week before, and six of the eight made the cut there, finishing T28/T25/9th/13th/31st/T30 (Adam Long and Andrew Landry missed the cut at the Sony in 2019 and 2020, respectively, before winning the Amex).
11 of the past 13 winners had played in this event at least once before their win — the exception was Adam Long in 2019 and Nick Dunlap in 2024.
Winners Stats and Course Highlights
Sepp Straka (2025 winner at 25-under-par)
2025 lead-in form (T30-T15-MC-T27-T13)
Three of the last six winners here (Adam Long and Andrew Landry) had almost zero lead-in form, with Landry coming in off five straight missed cuts to win in 2020 (he was 500-1 pre-event).
Straka had played in two warmup events already, showing some decent form (T30 at Sony week prior).
2024 winner Nick Dunlap had missed four straight cuts in a row on the PGA TOUR and was still an amateur at the time of his win.
Si Woo Kim had posted a nice T25 in Hawaii (with positive strokes gained approach numbers) before arriving here and grabbing a win in 2021; in 2022, Hudson Swafford put in a mediocre T48 in Hawaii before blowing the doors off with a big week.
The stats from past seasons only include two rounds at a measured course (Stadium), but we can see that Strokes Gained: Approach rates out as vitally important. That’s where Jon Rahm gained the biggest edge in 2023. Rahm lost strokes putting on TPC Stadium, but was so good putting on the other courses that it didn’t matter.
Rahm gained strokes off the tee in 2023, but other winners have overcome far worse OTT stats and managed to prevail.
Ultimately, the venues this week correlate strongest with SG: Approach, Putting, and Around the Green play. SG: ATG may come more into play with the firmer greens at the Stadium Course, but this is still ultimately a putting contest where the winner will need to be aggressive with their irons and sink an ungodly number of short to medium range putts.
Finding Values on DraftKings Sportsbook
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Comparable:
Harris English +4000 and $9,100
Sepp Straka +4500 and $9,200
Harry Hall +4500 and $9,300
Comparable:
Nick Taylor +9000 and $7,700
Daniel Berger +6500 and $7,800
Christian Bezuidenhout +10000 and $7,700
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
(These players have had a lot of success at this event over their career.)
1. Patrick Cantlay ($10,400; best finishes: 2nd-2021, T9-2019 + 2022): Cantlay is fourth in strokes gained total stats at this event since 2019. He’s developed great synergy with some of the Pete Dye venues on the PGA TOUR, and this venue has perhaps become one of his favorites. He shot a record-breaking 61 on the Stadium venue in 2021 and has finished in the top 10 in three of his last five American Express starts. He’s a deserving lead horse this week.
2. Si Woo Kim ($9,000; best finishes: win-2021, T11 -2022): Kim held off Cantlay in dramatic style to win this event in 2021. The South Korean also has a fantastic record at Pete Dye venues, with a win at TPC Sawgrass being the pinnacle of his career to date. Kim also played well in Hawaii last week which should give him a bit of a competitive edge.
3. Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,700; best finish: 2nd-2024, T11-2023): Bezuidenhout has done well at this event over the past few seasons. The South African made a late charge in 2024 on Sunday but came up a stroke short with Nick Dunlap saving par on the final hole. He didn’t play the Sony Open last week but is certainly someone who has proven to like desert golf with him also posting a top five in Phoenix last year.
4. Sam Burns ($9,800; best finishes: T6-2020; T6-2024): Burns has accumulated three top 12 finishes at this event over the last seven seasons. The American had the lead down the stretch on Sunday in 2024, but a water ball at the island green gave away the win. He’s a great putter and birdie maker, so expect another decent showing from him this week.
Recent Form
1. Alex Noren ($8,800, Recent finishes: T2-T16-T17): Noren had a fall to remember, winning twice over in Europe, and also grabbing a T2 finish at the Hero World Challenge in December. He’s a great spike putter and capable of going very low in an event like this.
2. Robert MacIntyre ($9,400, Recent finishes: T4-T12-T8): MacIntyre looks ready for another big season. He played well to end 2025 and closed with a final round 63 last week to finish T4.
3. Ryan Gerard ($7,600, Recent finishes: T2-T2): Gerard is starting to creep up the OWGR, as he enters as the 30th-ranked golfer in the world. He won the Barracuda last season, which is another event where low scoring for four rounds is a must.
4. Lee Hodges ($7,500, Recent finishes: T6-T4): Hodges had a solid end to 2025 with a T4 at the RSM Classic and carried that momentum over to 2026 with a T4 last week. His solid iron play gives him a great shot at some low rounds on these resort courses.
5. Patrick Rodgers ($7,100, Recent finishes: T7-T4): Rodgers can be frustrating at times, but he’s shown improvement with his irons of late and played well on the weekend in Hawaii. Overall, he’s landed three top 10s in his last five PGA starts.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Big Field Punt plays:
Adrien Dumont de Chassart ($6,500) – see below
Bud Cauley ($6,600): Cauley made a solid start last week, finishing inside the top 30 while gaining strokes on approach. He’s an excellent wedge player and has a very good record at this week’s event, which includes a Top 5 finish. If the putter heats up, he can contend.
David Ford ($6,700): I’ll keep Ford here for one more week at least. The American is a great talent and a very accurate driver, which should help on these point to point setups. He also landed a T3 finish over the fall in Utah on another desert-style course.
Matti Schmid ($7,100): Schmid is a complete wildcard but certainly a player who can and has spiked in the past at these resort-style venues. He finished T6 here a few years ago and comes in having posted a T8 in the fall at the World Wide Technology Championship.
Core plays:
Russell Henley ($9,600) – see below
Michael Kim ($7,500): Kim didn’t explode for us last week but he was solid and had a very good putting week, which is potentially a great sign of things to come for him in Palm Springs this week. With him having good course history and getting off to a solid start, I see no reason not to build around him in DFS again with his salary still well under 8k.
Contrarian click: Michael Thorbjornsen ($8,600): This isn’t a bomber’s course per se, but you do need to go low and make a ton of birdies to compete this week. Thorbjornsen has competed well at many of these easier venues across the PGA thus far (RSM, Deere Classic) and is coming off a strong fall that saw him finish T3 in Japan. A strong start this week or even a breakthrough win wouldn’t be overly shocking.
MY PICK: Russell Henley ($9,600)
Henley comes in off a solid opener, posting a T19 last week in windy conditions at the Sony. Henley’s only falter last week came in Round 2, where he shot a 73 in windy conditions. Otherwise he was quite good, shooting 65 in Round 1 and 67 in Round 3 and 4.
Overall, the veteran looked in great form, gaining multiple strokes on approach and should be ready to pick things up at the American Express. While Henley has never gone well at this week’s event, his last start at this rotational venue format saw him close well and take home a T14 finish (2022). He also played well last season at the other Pro-Am on Tour at Pebble Beach. With his salary down this week and Henley having the advantage of a solid result already under his belt, I like targeting him as a core play at this week’s venue for DFS. You could also look to him for betting as either an outright at +2500 on the DraftKings Sportsbook or in the top 10 markets.
MY SLEEPER: Adrien Dumont de Chassart ($6,500)
You have to like the form of de Chassart right now, a young Belgian player who is beginning his second full season on the PGA TOUR. The 25-year-old is now a multiple-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, with his most recent win coming late last season when he won the Compliance Solutions Championship at -33, after shooting a 61 in Rounds 1 and 2. He looks like he’s maintained a lot of that great form into 2026 as well after his solid start at the Sony, which saw him shoot 64-67 in Rounds 1 and 2.
While his stats are a little all over the place, it’s pretty clear that de Chassart does have one thing that will be needed this week, which is the ability to go low. He managed his way to a T24 finish last week, despite losing over 3.0 strokes putting and could easily flip the switch on the flatstick this week with quicker Bermuda greens in play at Palm Springs. Overall, with the upside he brings to the table and his burgeoning form, de Chassart is exactly the sort of low-priced punt play I want to target in DFS GPPs this week at this birdie-fest event.
For betting, I’d also rate him as a great placement bet with odds at +500 and +1100 respectively in the Top 10 and Top 20 with ties markets on the DraftKings Sportsbook.