Packers vs Bears | Key Matchups That Will Decide the Outcome

Adam Hoge analyzes the highly-anticipated rematch between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers on X’s and Hoge’s Is this the premier matchup up of NFL Week 16 with conference seeding and potentially the NFC north division title on the line? Will the Bears be able to overcome injuries to Rome Odunze and Luther Burden? MEanwhile, how does the matchup shift with Micah Parsons being done for the season for the Packers?

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All right, we interrupt this stadium talk to talk about what really matters this week. Bears Packers. Come on, let’s get focused, guys. And this is a good one. Obviously, biggest game in years for the Bears. Biggest game of the season for the Packers. It is 7:20 Saturday night. Soldierfield’s going to be rocking on Fox. Tom Brady back on the call, I think, for like the third or fourth time this season. And uh checking out the lines as of Thursday morning. This is essentially a pick them, which you do not see much in the NFL anymore. You can still find some spots where the Packers are one-point favorite. I saw a spot where the Bears are now a favorite, but for the most part, this is a pick them. You look at the money lines, it’s even across the board. Let’s go overunder 46 and a half. Of course, Packers coming off their loss to the Broncos last week and they are 94-1 with that tie still behind the Bears and that’s going to definitely factor into the standings. This game will decide a lot. You guys already know from a couple weeks ago all the coordinators. We’ll get into it, but we’ll skip that for now. EPA per play, the Bears up to 10th offensively. How about the defense move from 21st to 13th in EPA per play just off that Browns game. That’s how dominant they were. So, kind of back in the middle of the pack. Green Bay’s defense now 17th and probably headed down once they don’t have Micah Parsons. But offensively still really good from an EPA standpoint. Jordan Love’s been outstanding in those metrics all season. They are second in the league. We’ll start with the Bears offense versus the Packers defense. Of course, once again, Ben Johnson versus Jeff Hafley. We saw it a couple weeks ago and it was quite a battle. And uh the biggest difference right there, no number one anymore with Micah Parsons off the field. You know, the Parsons from a pressure standpoint, his pressure rate was second overall in the league individually. But even with that, the Packers pressure rate 15th. So that go that just shows you that even with Michael Parsons as a team, they’re only middle of the pack from a pressure standpoint, not getting a lot of help. Now they don’t have Parsons. How they adjust to this is going to be fascinating. But Rashad Gary moves in. Uh we’ll just move him over there. Kingsley and Ibare more on the on the field more and Lucas Vaness seems like he’s healthy again. So, he’ll get more opportunity, but really these guys have not been able to create as much pressure uh even collectively as Michael Parsons. So, this is a big hit. Also, a big big injury in the secondary with Evan Williams likely out. It seems he sprained his MCL. It’ll be interesting to see how they handle this. I’m kind of suspecting they’ll move Java Javon Bullard, who’s been playing more in the slot, back to free safety, where he’s played before. That would put Nate Hobbs, their big free agent signing over the offseason, who they tried to play outside and he just wasn’t good, so he got benched by Valentine. Um, I would think that would put Hobbs back on the field in the slot spot if that’s the way they go. Now, we could see a lot of base personnel in this game because of the Bears injuries. Are they going to be more 11? More 12. They had more success in 12 against the Packers a couple weeks ago. They struggled a little bit more in 11. and they have their big injuries at wide receiver which are going to factor Roma Dunay. He didn’t play against the Packers last time. Doesn’t look like he’s going to play this week. But also Luther Burton, I don’t have him up here. This is Devin Duivere. So how this is all handled by the Bears, I would think you’d want to get Coulson Lovelin, Cole KT on the field more. Of course, Cole KT’s a little bit banged up too with that shot he took to the leg. So this might help the Packers a little bit sort out their secondary weaknesses. Um because if we take Duivere off and obviously you’d probably just keep Zakius out here with two wide receivers on the field and then we would add 84 over here with two tight ends. All right, that would as I fumble with the markers. Uh I’m going to work on work on our marker juggling a little bit better. That would put Isaiah McDuffy, who’s a pretty good player, on the field, uh, in base personnel for the Packers and then avoid them having to have Hobbs out here. You’d almost certainly see Bullard back at safety in base personnel, I would have to think. But this juggling with the injuries will be key. Another key injury. Did not like to see DeAndre Swift pop up on the injury report yesterday with that groin. Something that bothered him earlier in the season. That would be big. Something to monitor. Uh, certainly when the last injury report comes out. right now. That’s not out as we’re filming this. Moving to the other side of the ball, Packers offense versus the Bears defense. Again, injuries and personnel are going to be big. Um, Zack Tom out. Uh, we think, right, we think he’s going to be out. It certainly seemed like it with his knee injury last week. What they do here, they like really don’t have a right tackle. Do they go with Jordan Morgan, their first round pick from a year ago? Well, he struggled there. Seems like he’s better inside right now. He’s a backup. Darien Canard, same thing. Seems to be better at guard, but he’s the one that came in at right tackle last week, but he struggled uh when he went in there and he got banged up. He’s on the injury report. Do they move Beltton from right guard over? Maybe they slide Jordan Morgan in at guard at that point, but Belton, same thing, has been better at guard uh than outside at tackle. So, it it their right tackle situation seems like a big problem. Meanwhile, Christian Watson seems like he’s going to play. he uh kind of surprisingly with that shoulder. Um but he’s he was out there practicing yesterday. Probably a pain tolerance issue. Uh so we’ll see. Does he go the whole game? Does he get dinged up during the game? But I have a feeling right now it seems like he’s going to give it a go. Josh Jacobs injury certainly something to watch as well. And then with the Bears, are they gonna get Termaine Edmonds back? And if so, who gets the green dot? Because DeMarco Jackson has had the green dot and he’s been playing more of the mic. Remember earlier in the season though when Edmonds was out there, he was playing Will and TJ Edwards was playing the mic. So how they juggle that, I don’t think they want to take Demarco Jackson off the field, but maybe he’s in there at Sam. I guess it’s a good problem to have. But who’s handling the green dot here out of these three guys? Who’s playing which position? How they sort that all out? You know, uh Dennis Allen’s been dealing with this stuff every single week. It’s been fun to watch and he seems to always have a solution. Big key, just don’t give up the explosives to Jordan Love. It’s going to be a great game. Can’t wait for Saturday night.