A Closer Look At McLaren’s Costly Error In Qatar | Jolyon Palmer’s F1 TV Analysis

Jolyon Palmer takes a close look at exactly what went wrong for McLaren from every angle during Sunday’s race in Qatar.

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It’s the big question to uh to kick us off. Why didn’t the McLarens pit under the safety car? It cost them the race. And as soon as everyone else pitted, it was an obvious gaff that you knew they were going to have to make a pit stop. It’s 26 seconds for the stop. And to make matters worse in Qar, there was a mandated stint length on the tires, which was 25 laps on the medium. So, they couldn’t exactly change their plan. They had to then just go. And because it was a long safety car, they didn’t have a huge amount of time to make up the gap either. So the question, why didn’t they pit? Well, they didn’t pit because they thought others wouldn’t pit and they didn’t want to pit and fall into traffic, leaving Max Vstappen, let’s say, out front and uh and making the most of clear air whilst they’re stuck in traffic. Could be 10th place, could be 12th place. And we saw how difficult it was to overtake inqar. So they were cautious and basically they didn’t read the room. If they knew everyone else was pitting, it was obvious to pit. But from the front of the field, you’ve got to make that call. And uh it’s something that was preset. It was obvious enough to the rest of the teams that they did come in. And McLaren should have run the numbers and seen basically what the decisions would be for the H guys, the Racing Bulls, the Aston Martins because everyone else’s strategy makes a big impact on the McLaren strategy in a race like this. If the Stapen had pitted but half the field stayed out and Max reemerged into P1, he wouldn’t have won the race. McLarens would have won and their strategy would have worked out, but they didn’t read it right and because everyone else pitted, it made them look pretty silly. So, Versappen comes in, he does the opposite of both McLarens who remain on the racetrack. And the McLarens here could pay a heavy price for staying out. So, what else could they have done with the cars in first and third? Well, there’s been a lot of talk about keeping fairness between Oscar and Lando. And absolutely, that’s what they wanted to do. And you could tell in the in the way that they’ve set up. Uh the car started on the same tire and they were on the same strategy at lap seven. It was the wrong one. But because one had a a blooper on the strategy, I don’t think McLaren then would have intentionally sabotaged the other. I think they were preset on their plan and Lando didn’t react to Max. But the time to to react to Max was very little and you don’t know at that point that the staff’s made the right call and uh and Oscar hasn’t. So uh so that was the first part. The second part is the double stack and it’s something that other teams had to do. So, let’s have a look at the gaps when uh when everyone came into the pit. This is the whole field and you can see it’s fairly well spread out because it’s lap seven. So, it’s equal distances really between the field, but no one’s really more than a couple of seconds apart. And if we actually look through and see uh actually the the gaps between the teammates for the double stack, it would have been a bit tight for the two McLaren to do it, but it wasn’t the tightest of anyone in the field. In fact, the Ferrari guys were a bit tighter. H Estean actually stayed out the first lap to do something different as well. But he had very little to lose from the back of the field, but it was possible for the McLaren to double stack and get out in space. Let’s have a look at the video then because Max Vstappen manages to get out between Antelli and Carlos Science. That’s a 2 and 1 half second gap and that is what Lando Norris would have had between Science and Alonso as well. So you’ve got Vstappen there being released after Antonelli. You’ve got your 2C gap and there he goes. Now, there are gaps that form between cars when they’re all filtering and it looks like it’s bedum, but a Formula 1 pit crew is a welloiled machine and uh McLaren’s bay is this one up here. So, it’s the first bay. They have to wait for every car to to stream through or pick your gap. And you can see there is just small ones for uh for various cars to be released into. And looking at the gaps that we had, it’s uh it looks like whilst Vstappen could release in between uh Antonyelli and Science here, Norris should then be able to be released between Science and Alonso if McLaren can pit his car pretty well. And with the gap between the two McLarens, it’s feasible that they could. And even if they couldn’t, there are other gaps further back. Maybe he’d have lost track position to science, but he’s then got 50 laps to try and overtake one car rather than a 50 lap time trial to try and basically clear the whole field and then pass Antonelli and Science at the end as well. So, it was an obvious call to double stack the cars in hindsight at the time. McLaren with a with a big mistake not reading the rest of the room and uh and it left them well and truly in the lurch. you know, felt like I drove uh probably the best weekend I’ve had this year, if not in F1. Um, so to not have the to not have the results um is is painful. Strategy as a second car is always just a bit worse and uh and had me over today. So, um, not even that. It wasn’t even the factor of the second car. We uh we shouldn’t have done what we did. So, simple as that. And actually, it could have been a lot worse for McLaren as well. second and fourth at the checker flag. They got away with this one. If we have a look at the race plot, you can see the gaps that they actually ended up slotting into and it worked really nicely. You’ve got Fernando Alonso down here in your uh in your Aston Martin green and he kind of backs up everyone else behind P6. So when both McLaren end up pitting for their first stop, they emerge just ahead of Alono one lap after another. And Fernando’s really not bothered about racing with them. So he’s managing his own pace at this stage and as soon as in fact the McLaren’s come out ahead, he picks up that pace. So he’s actually working as a as a sort of dummy McLaren at this stage to allow them the free air to go and chase Antonyelli and SCS. Had Fernando driven at a more aggressive pace, he would have been burning through his tires a bit more. It was a risky move for Aston Martin. So what he did made sense for them but it would have really hindered the McLarens as well if they’d have come out with Russell with Charlotte with Isaac Hajar at the time as well and been behind Fernando Alonto. They wouldn’t have had seven extra laps to try and push and uh and make the place towards Antonelli and uh Science as well and that might have left Pestre’s P2 in jeopardy. Secondly, you had Carlos Science in third place. An amazing drive for Carlos. We’ll come to that in uh in a little bit, but he was not as fast as most of the other front runners typically are. He did a good job holding Antonelli back, but he held Antonelli back. If Kimmy had have had clean air, he would have been quicker, probably quick enough to to stop Pastri beating him. Likewise, Russell, who had a bad start, and you got to remember, this was a race where the Ferraris were absolutely nowhere. In most other races, the Ferrari pace is somewhere near the stappen as well. And if the Mercedes or or the Ferraris could finish pretty much within 15 seconds of Max Fappen, which they usually should do in clear air, the McLaren could have left this race outside of the top five. So second and fifth, it’s a big big gaff for them, but it’s kind of a situation where they got away with it not being worse. You know, you win and lose as a as a team, but uh definitely not a a great moment. um you know our our evaluation of if it’s safety car came out on that lap was clearly incorrect. So we’ll uh we’ll go back study that. Nothing we can do about it now. Uh we’re leading the championship but Oscar at a deficit left some points on the table. So we’ll just do the best we can in Abu Dhabi. We were very strong there last year. So finally then had they pitted they would have surely finished first and third in the order that they had. Pestri had the race absolutely under control. Norris had lost it at the start with the stappen. So, let’s have a look at at the getaway. And it’s something that’s that’s fairly clear to see when you pause straight after the lights. We’ve got three cars that start on the dirtier side of the grid. You’ve got Norris, we’ve got George Russell here from fourth position, and you’ve got Isaac Hajar from sixth. And as the lights go out, they just simply don’t have the grip that the other guys do. Everyone’s on the medium tire, so the tires are the same across the board. The grip level on the surface isn’t because it’s the dirty side. The outside line is the racing line and it’s been cleaned up through the weekend. So, they all start dropping back. Haj is the worst. He’s going to drop back and come back through the pit stop phase. Russell’s going to lose out to his teammate. And you can see Vstappen clearing Norris as well by the breaking zone of the first corner. And that would have set up anyway Max to beat Lando in the race. It would have been very tricky for Lando to come back without any strategy ramifications from that start behind. You’ve got George Russell there going wide at turn two and uh and making matters worse for Mercedes. Probably cost Kimmy Antonelli a chance of a podium by the time that Science was then able to get behind Anteneelli for the uh for the pit stop phase. But yeah, in the end it was just too little for uh for the McLaren on board with Lando and we can see the uh the the start and he just doesn’t have the grip in the second phase to get away. Tries to find the slipstream from Oscar in the end Max does and it gives him that extra advantage to the first corner. You don’t need to give Max a second invitation to go around the outside. There he goes. So that’s the first headache, but by all means, not the major headache at the Qatar Grand Prix for McLaren. So that was the the big one at the front of the field for McLaren. But now we’re into the chase. Lando and Oscar both trying to do their sort of virtual race, the time trial to come back and clear as many cars as they possibly can. And they have to do that with pure pace. They’re not racing anyone at this stage. And they’re really maximizing what they can do. So let’s jump on board with Lando for uh for turn 14. These corners are so quick in the final sector. The drivers really physically working. You can see Lando then his neck just resting up against the cockpit sides there to try and give him that little bit of relief. This is a brutal circuit. Loads of fast right hand turns. And as we come to the exit here, he’s just going to drop his left hand tires into the gravel. And uh and that caused him a big over steer and a loss of time. And that’s when he got on the radio and said potential damage for him. We have a very similar moment for Oscar just a few laps later once again coming through 13. 14 is the tightest of these three and it’s so marginal where he’s just dropped it towards the gravel there on the outside. But the left rear has just caught it and again big moment for Oscar manages to to keep his foot in a bit better. But they’re both big snaps that cost reasonable pace. This is Lando and you can see that speed there on lap 36 compared to lap 35 coming through turn 14 in the red carrying that little bit more lifting off less and that is what caused him to to find the gravel on the outside just pushing to the absolute limit which is fun to see. It’s a big challenge but it’s the same story for both McLaren drivers. Norris with a bigger one towards the gravel. Pestri has a very similar looking moment as well. Well, there’s the data for him once again carrying that little bit more through turn 14 on the lap he went off pushing the boundaries and as we saw just an inch into the gravel and they both actually did well to get away with it particularly Norris who caught it more that could have been his championship properly up in smoke there but as it was it got away with it. The next big one for both of them was Kimmy Anteneelli right at the end. So Pastri had to catch and pass Antonelli did it in the middle stint and this was really really well done. no second guessing himself. Just opened up the inside and plunged down that inside line. It’s a good move. Antonelli didn’t fight it particularly hard in the end towards the uh the the apex because he knew once Pestri had gone in so deep that that was done. But you can see here how Pastri has gone in so deep. Science is there on the apex and Pestri now scooping it up at turn one. It’s so far away from the apex, but the first turn in uh in Qatar is really wide. It invites the the late lunge. It has to be really aggressive because the braking zone’s not huge. But remember, Pastry is in a McLaren. This car is on fire on on this day. And he’s on fresher tires as well at this stage than Antelli. So, he sends it in. And it’s a really strong move. But we get our next one. It’s a question. Did Kimmy purposefully shift over for Norris to take P4? The answer emphatically is no, he didn’t. It’s a mistake from Antelli. Let’s have a look at it. Coming through turn nine. Remember, he’s pushing to get close to Carlos Science at this stage. You got Science into turn 10. You got Antonelli and then you’ve got Norris. So Kimmyy’s still thinking that’s a podium place for him. That’s a brilliant result. If he can get ahead of Science, it’s a solid result in fourth place. Uh fifth to fourth, less of a drama. Fourth to third, that’s a podium difference. So he’s pushing really hard. He has an over steer at turn nine. Gets the car stopped from a tighter line and then tries to pick up the gas and just has an over steer again at turn 10. The tires are going away at this stage. is right towards the end of the race. We can see it once again on board with Lando. There’s your first moment. So whilst Kimmy can only open up half the road in towards turn 10. Lando can open up the full thing, get the car rotated with better speed. So Kimmyy’s still trying to carry in a bit of speed, but now running wide, finding that over steer and it’s enough just to put him off off the off the road on the exit. And that’s a Lando Norris overtake that’s fairly comfortable in the end. But you can see there was the same moments that Lando was having really there. just smaller moments correcting through the apex of nine, through the apex of 10, and it’s exactly the same as Fernando Alonso has as well in the uh in the final stint here on the hard tires, gets to an apex, and then just simply actually spins the car, does a beautiful 360 to not lose too much. It’s just Hajar and Russell, and Hajar will eventually retire from the race. So, it really didn’t cost Alono a huge amount, but it shows that rear grip coming through turn 10, it’s tricky. It’s always one where you’re sliding towards the exit. You want to get on the gas. It’s a good full throttle run and it’s an innocent mistake from Antelli. Certainly no gamesmanship from uh from what I can see there. Here’s the data of it and every bit of his inputs as well. Looks like he’s doing nothing irrational from the uh from the cockpit to to generate this over steer. Once again, he’s slightly quicker through turn 9. Has the over steer. You can see the big snap on the uh on the steering there. That’s these cat-like reactions to uh to stop it fully spinning. But then here, what I’m looking for is the throttle to see if he’s just stamped on the gas. Because if you have a th00and horsepower in in all of these Formula 1 cars, you can spin the car. If you really want to spin the car, it’s fairly straightforward. You just put the throttle down like a switch and you can have a big over steer. But Antonyelli really hasn’t done that. He’s applied it on this red lap actually slightly more gradually. He’s coming from a lower speed, but he’s more gradual in his uh in his throttle application here, which you can see there. Getting on it earlier, but from a lower speed, picking it up. The rear’s just overheated from that turn nine moment and and round he goes. Steering trace very similar. It’s just a simple over steer and an unlucky moment. I I went in a bit quicker into turn nine and lost the rear and went off track. So definitely, you know, was was a mistake and uh need to to move forward now.