Ben Coley is backing five of the South African contingent for this week’s re-homed Alfred Dunhill Championship.
Royal Johannesburg steps in to hostSouth African players dominate the bettingPenultimate event of the DP World Tour yearGolf betting tips: Alfred Dunhill Championship
3pts win Branden Grace at 22/1 (General)
3pts win Dean Burmester at 22/1 (General)
2pts e.w. Casey Jarvis at 35/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Jacques Kruyswijk at 75/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Robin Williams at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Christiaan Burke at 200/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets
The message to the more weathered members of the Sky Sports commentary team this week should be nice and simple: whatever you do, don’t call it the Joburg Open. Expect some of them to fail, because the Alfred Dunhill Championship is on a one-year break from its home at Leopard Creek and will take place instead on the East Course at Royal Johannesburg, where Andy Sullivan won the Joburg Open 10 years ago.
Back then, through to its final stint in February 2017, Royal Johannesburg’s two courses hosted a bumper field and one of them, the West, was the easier of the two. Though Sullivan himself did not, for the most part you had to score there and across the first two rounds of the most recent renewal, the only sub-65s came at the West. This isn’t to say the East was especially demanding but outside a couple of wide-margin winners, nine other champions didn’t need to get to 20-under.
This year, players will have to make do with four rounds at the East and scoring ought to be higher, although Louis Albertse reached 23-under in a Sunshine Tour event last year. With the ball sure to travel miles up in Johannesburg and plenty of recent rain having softened fairways and greens, my guess is something between 15- and 20-under will be enough to win this famous trophy, on loan from its much more famous home.
Winning around here will likely come down to a good putting week once you’ve survived a test which is not necessarily about power, despite a chunky 7,656 yards on the scorecard. Sullivan and Darren Fichardt are two of the last three winners of the Joburg, an event won by several of the best South Africans. We learn as much, perhaps even more, by looking at the nearly-men: veteran Wallie Coetsee, straight-hitting Stuart Manley, fairways-and-greens flusher Magnus Carlsson, a young Tyrrell Hatton, and pitch-and-putt specialist James Morrison.
None of these, nor Justin Walters, Darren Clarke, Kevin Phelan, Anthony Wall or Jaco van Zyl, would be known for their driving prowess and this might just be a tournament where we can overlook that club. Haydn Porteous barely hit a fairway when he beat Zander Lombard, not known for doing so, so when I use the word precision I’m talking more about the second shot. That’s where so many of these players excel and with all four par-fives reachable, approaches from a range of distances (fewer wedges and more mid-irons than usual) might help separate the field.
Strong approach play is a big part of the profile of Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who didn’t putt anything like as well as he can when fourth at Sun City, but of the trio priced shorter than 20/1 it was Jayden Schaper who made most appeal ahead of the favourite and Angel Ayora.
This is basically a home game for the Benoni youngster, who arrives off a fantastic second place to Kristoffer Reitain at Sun City. He did nothing at all wrong and should bounce into this event, one he almost won back at the beginning of his pro career in 2020, knowing that the switch to Royal Johannesburg ought not to be a hindrance.
Had he remained 16/1, Schaper would’ve made the staking plan, but that’s been revised down to 12/1 and I just have to let him go. It’s not to his benefit that there’s been a lot of rain in the build-up, there is a small chance he struggles to go again after coming within a shot of his first professional win, and for all his potential he looks the right price in the here and now.
Tempting though it is to side with a player I’ve wanted to be on for this for a few weeks, sometimes circumstances demand a change of plan. It’ll be a bit annoying if he wins, but at the prices there’s just no room for manoeuvre.
Amazing Grace
This is an undeniably strong market at the top and as we’ve seen over the past fortnight in Australia, and with Reitan and Schaper finishing first and second along with Dan Bradbury at Sun City, when fields are padded out with those from the local tour and new DP World Tour members still finding their feet, more often than not class rises to the top.
This event – the Alfred Dunhill, I must keep reminding myself – has thrown up a couple of surprises at Leopard Creek, but for the most part the biggest names in South African golf have dominated. Louis Oosthuizen beat Charl Schwartzel when last it was played, Bezuidenhout won in 2020, Brandon Stone in 2016, Schwartzel four times in total, and BRANDEN GRACE in 2014.
With Schwartzel absent and Oosthuizen not only underwhelming lately but struggling in general with his putter, it’s Grace who appeals and I’m not surprised the early 28/1 has been snapped up. I thought he’d be just about challenging for favouritism alongside Bezuidenhout and Schaper and am delighted that’s not the case, with anything north of 16/1 worth taking.
Grace has played really well for the last few months. Given a reprieve by LIV Golf having in theory been relegated a year ago, he took until July to properly repay that faith, but ended the regular season with three top-five finishes in four starts, the exception still seeing him lead after the first round before fading.
He wasn’t quite at his best in the team final but put that behind him when fifth in the Saudi International last time, shooting a final-round 66 to climb from outside the top 20, and you have to go all the way back to April for the last time he played poorly. Before that, by the way, he’d made a rare DP World Tour appearance and finished fourth in the South Africa Open, where the final round had to be abandoned. Had it not been, he’d surely have fancied his chances.
Since then, Grace has been one of the best putters on LIV Golf and his approach play has fired too, and that looks a winning formula at the scene of his DP World Tour breakthrough back in 2012. A year earlier, while preparing to embark upon a Challenge Tour campaign, he started well and spent most of the week inside the top 10 before eventually fading to finish 13th.
Back at a course he has such fond memories of, Grace looks to hold outstanding claims and with very little between him, Bezuidenhout and Schaper, Grace’s winning course form, overall strike-rate and significantly bigger price all make him the automatic choice.
DEAN BURMESTER is the other big name who is hard to get away from at the prices and it should be said that he stacks up very well against Grace, with a 9-4 head-to-head lead across the 13 events they’ve both played this season. Given that Grace appealed, Burmester had to as well and the more I look, the more I warm to his chances.
The one nagging concern is that he’s missed three cuts in his five starts since the LIV Golf season ended, but only Hong Kong looks really poor on paper (from what I saw he putted abysmally) and I’m inclined to forgive him missing out by a shot in the South African PGA last time, especially given that it was on an exposed, links-like course under difficult confitions.
In-between these two efforts, Burmester led through 54 holes of the Saudi International en route to third place and he’s also contended in the Philippines, while it’s not all that long since he was winning LIV Golf Chicago at the expense of Jon Rahm and subsequent winner Jose Luis Ballester.
Burmester was no great shakes here a decade ago but he wasn’t anything like the player he is today, and we can take plenty of encouragement from his two most recent starts at the course. The first of those was in 2017, when he sat third with a round to go, and the second came in 2021 when he shot rounds of 65 and 66, two of the four lowest rounds of the week.
He will feel he ought to have won that event having shot a destructive 74 in round two but rather than dwell on any sense of revenge against the golf course, there’s a different factor to ponder: whether he might see this as his best chance to win a title all young South African golfers are desperate to get their hands on.
Because while his record at Leopard Creek has improved lately, he still only has one top-10 finish there in 12 attempts, never coming close to winning, and spectacularly imploded last time. At a rain-softened Royal Joburg, maybe he can take full advantage of the sabbatical from a course he can’t get to grips with and win for the fifth time in 17 home appearances over a five-year period.
Among the next wave of the betting, Francesco Laporta played a lot of golf in South Africa growing up but his strength is the driver, his weakness is the putter, and I’m therefore not convinced this is ideal. Plus, he hasn’t played since Abu Dhabi and while a month off isn’t necessarily a major issue, he does concede a start to all of those who acclimatised at Sun City last week.
Joost Luiten was among them and should go well but while absent from that field, CASEY JARVIS had gone 1-1-10 in South Africa over the previous few weeks and looks to have an excellent chance to break through.
Jarvis is a bit of an obvious selection I’m afraid but rather than try to find reasons to look away, I’m compelled to side with a player who was born half an hour down the road and enjoyed his finest hour as an amateur when winning the South African Amateur Championship at this golf course.
Jarvis was utterly dominant, winning the final 7&6, and was just 16 at the time. It was one of several big wins at home and it’s really felt like a matter of time until he properly establishes himself as a professional, something he’s taken big strides towards doing with those two Sunshine Tour wins in recent weeks.
His other professional win of note came at altitude in Austria, which of course makes sense, and while yes he was a lowly 96th on the Race to Dubai, ultimately he’s kept his card comfortably in two seasons on the DP World Tour. Still only 22, the best is very much to come and it seems likely to me that his confidence-boosting drop down in grade will act as a springboard to bigger and better things.
So again, rather than wonder if the idea that it works out here is too good to be true, I’m left asking why not? He knows and loves the course, he’s full of confidence and his iron play is a strength. In other words, it’s not just that he knows Royal Johannesburg and has won here when a class apart from most of his competitors; it would look an ideal fit on paper anyway.
Jarvis has contended in the last two editions of this event, finishing 7th and 11th after poor weekends. He’s been ninth across town in the Joburg Open, that from just three tries, entered the weekend of his penultimate SA Open start in second place, has a good record in Kenya and Mauritius too, and has more altitude form via eighth place at Crans-sur-Sierre.
Put simply, in a field which thins out quickly, I’m happy playing at the available prices. He has so much in his favour and so much untapped potential, too. At the time of writing, there’s plenty of 40/1 around to five places, bet365 go 35/1 to eight or 33/1 for 10, Betfred are 33s for eight, and BoyleSports are 30/1 for 10.
Jono Broomhead and Daniel Bennett are two other young names to note, the former having won a big amateur title across town at Randpark and the latter a high-class amateur. Bennett is a name for the future but I could see Broomhead getting involved in this, albeit his very recent Sunshine Tour form is unconvincing and more will be required.
The other Sunshine Tour player of interest is CHRISTIAAN BURKE, whose home club is an hour or so from Royal Joburg.
He too knows this place really well from his amateur days and what’s clear is that he’s really started to find his feet as a professional, with seven top-20s in a row since the beginning of October. Twice he’s led at halfway and he’s also just missed out on converting a final-round lead, too.
Burke was fifth in Mauritius this time last year when arriving in no form and this big-hitter, with plenty of raw potential, should find conditions to his liking. And while I am wary of buying into the idea that this will be bombs away, his ability with driver certainly is no bad thing now that the rain has arrived.
He isn’t wild off the tee, either, and looks to be one of the most promising young players on the Sunshine Tour. It’s true that the locals do tend to struggle, but we saw Grace break through in this, Elvis Smylie do likewise in Australia last year, and the very best prospects can bridge the gap under the right circumstances.
Burke, so far best known for his record round of 56 back home in Potchefstroom, may yet prove too good for the level he’s at currently and the way he hung around in Mauritius last year bodes well. Like Smylie in Australia he’s playing at a course he knows and I imagine he’ll be excited that this opportunity arrives just as his career is taking off.
No doubting Williams potential
At around the 80/1 mark, with three-figures available to five places, I also like the look of ROBIN WILLIAMS, a player we know a bit more about and one who is just a few steps further along in his career.
This powerful youngster, who spent much of his youth living in England but now plays again under the flag of South Africa, has shown major promise over the past fortnight in Australia. He ranked first and third in strokes-gained off-the-tee and fifth and sixth in the tee-to-green stats, enough to significantly mark-up finishes of 19th and 46th.
Even without that statistical context, those two efforts on away soil against the likes of Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott and Cameron Smith look perfectly solid and he ought to be feeling really good about this opportunity, especially as he contended in the Joburg Open earlier this year. Along with a top-10 finish in Turkey, that was some of the best golf he played during his maiden DP World Tour season.
More recently, Williams has had a tough time on the greens but returning home may help and he ranked a solid 21st in Johannesburg in the spring, while he also has a bit of course experience having been 19th here on the Sunshine Tour last year. That was his best effort in six starts since he’d gone close to winning and offers sufficient promise.
The final note is that he’s won two Sunshine Tour titles, both at Glendower. That’s about 6km from Royal Johannesburg and after he’d won here, Sullivan headed there and beat Schwartzel to win the SA Open. The two courses certainly are not unalike, and playing conditions are of course very similar.
Certainly, if Williams hits the ball as he has done Down Under, we’ll have a chance to hit the frame at a big price.
I did consider diverging from the all-South African squad I’ve ended up with and giving Alejandro del Rey a chance, because if the rain does play into the hands of the longer hitters then his improved approach play of late makes him look close to the full package. More likely though is that a deal more subtlety is needed and that he finds one too many trouble spots.
Italy’s Andrea Pavan is in form courtesy of finishes of 17th, fourth and 23rd, he’s won at some kind of altitude in Munich, and he was in rotten form when missing the cut on all three previous starts here, so he too made a bit of appeal. That course record helps with the price and on paper, it really ought to suit him.
But he’s another who gives first run to those who’ve played already this season so I’ll sign off with JACQUES KRUYSWIJK at a similar price.
Kruyswijk didn’t do much in the Nedbank last week but that’s probably a grade above his level and there was enough to like about his long-game, having ranked fourth for strokes-gained approach and ninth around the green.
Unfortunately, one one of his 64 rivals putted worse hence he was unable to compete but this is a player with two top-five putting displays in his last six starts, and who rode a hot putter to victory in Kenya back in February despite having putted poorly coming in.
The more pressing issue is his driver but as mentioned at the top, that club may not be decisive this time so if we do happen to get that improvement we need on the greens, suddenly he’d look a live one at a course where he’s been fourth in a Joburg Open of comparable strength to this.
Kruyswijk lost a play-off for the Joburg Open soon after his victory in Kenya, he came back to South Africa to win a Sunshine Tour event in September, and in-between these he even has a top-five finish at altitude on the PGA Tour, emphasising how comfortable he is under these conditions.
In fact all of his best golf this year has come up in the thin air and that makes sense given his Pretoria upbringing, so with improvement expected following his Nedbank return and this course likely more suitable, he’s one I like at bigger than 50s.
Posted at 09:00 GMT on 09/12/25
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