Ben Coley believes that the favourite for the Nedbank Golf Challenge will take all the beating, as he previews one of his favourite tournaments.
Golf betting tips: Nedbank Golf Challenge
5pts win Viktor Hovland at 8/1 (General)
3pts e.w. Christiaan Bezuidenhout at 20/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
2pts e.w. Thomas Detry at 28/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Jesper Svensson at 40/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
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For some, it’s the sighting of Love Actually in the TV guide, for others it’s the John Lewis/Coca-Cola/Lidl advert. It might be the start of advent and that first window on the calendar, the change in playlist at Tesco, the flashing lights from the house opposite. But for me, there’s one thing that screams ‘Christmas is coming’, and it’s the Nedbank Golf Challenge at Sun City, where snow and frost couldn’t be further away.
I absolutely love this tournament and always have, from its exclusive, small-field days of genuinely elite golfers to this latest hybrid incarnation; a co-sanctioning without the biggest names in golf but still with a handful of notable guests. Reasons for that love are manifold: the location and its eponymous title, the warmth it brings to my living room, the fact that coverage begins early but not too early and is virtually wall-to-wall.
Not everyone is so giddily in love with this, some suggesting that the DP World Tour should not sanction an event which runs alongside the Australian Open. Joost Luiten was furious with the qualification criteria and had many fellow players agreeing with him before sneaking into the field anyway. And there’s no denying the fact that as the field size has increased, its average quality of player has gone in the other direction. None of this should detract from the spectacle ahead, by far my favourite this side of January golf in California and Dubai.
Last year’s renewal went to Johannes Veerman, the least notable champion in the entire history of an event which began in 1981. The American though is less an outlier as such, more a reflection of the direction of travel, and in skill-set he’s alike many former winners. Veerman is above-average in distance, strong off the tee, and a quality iron player – a lesser version of the likes of Lee Westwood, Tommy Fleetwood, Sergio Garcia and Nick Price, all multiple winners here.
Sun City is a big golf course and it’s a difficult one, particularly when the wind blows. Veerman’s five-under winning total was the highest so far and after 19 sub-70 scores in round one of the 2023 renewal, his saw just 20 all week as those winds blew on Friday in particular. At more than 7,800 yards, this is the longest course on the DP World Tour in pure scorecard terms and while heat and altitude both make it play shorter, it’s still a tough place for the nudgers and nurdlers to come and compete.
Since the introduction of strokes-gained data to the DP World Tour in 2019, two of the four subsequent renewals of this event went to the player ranked first in strokes-gained off-the-tee. Driving it well and having shorter approaches into small, clover-leaf greens is the formula and while once upon a time you’d have been quick to rule out newcomers, these days I’m not sure that applies. Max Homa won on debut before Veerman defied a poor first effort fully four years earlier, which meant he came back in 2024 with just two tournament rounds to his name.
As regular readers will know, I’m generally more comfortable betting each-way at big prices than I am win-only at short ones, and after Marc Leishman and Min Woo Lee finished third and fifth respectively last week, there’s a natural reluctance to follow a similar path. However, the mistake here would be to get too speculative; winners of the Nedbank are never all that surprising and I expect that to remain the case.
In other words, VIKTOR HOVLAND is a no-brainer.
I’d have been willing to look just about anywhere for reasons to side with this world-class, 11-time winner, who has played 20 DP World Tour events outside of majors, won two of them, and finished inside the top six half of the time.
But the truth is you don’t have to look far and straight away there’s big encouragement to be drawn from his latest start, sixth place in a better field in India. There, Hovland produced comfortably his best ball-striking stats of the entire year, one which has still seen him add to his PGA Tour tally and contend for another major despite searching for his swing at times.
Having also been fifth at Wentworth after he’d closed with a 63 at East Lake and finished 12th in a strong FedExCup Playoffs event in Colorado, Hovland played well before the Ryder Cup and has played well again in his sole start since, held back only by his putting in Delhi. That and his loveable desire to do a bit of sightseeing when venturing to new places.
Six weeks away isn’t much of a concern given that he’s twice won after a month off and as mentioned, the fact that this is his debut doesn’t unduly worry me, either. The same applies to Marco Penge, who flies in from Australia with his approach play having cooled off appreciably of late, and there’s a bit of a lack of proven Sun City form towards the head of this market, or anywhere within it in fact.
Hovland hasn’t played professionally in South Africa but the two factors which might feel alien to some shouldn’t to him. He’s played very little golf at altitude but his results have been excellent, with second in Boise, first in Munich, and a quality tee-to-green display in Colorado. And he does have plenty of experience with kikuyu grass, including a record of four top-20s from four at Riviera and a runner-up finish at Torrey Pines.
The latter is the longest course on the PGA Tour and it’s been evident for a while now that it correlates well with the Nedbank. Homa is the most recent, stark example, having won at both, but Marc Leishman had already done that double, Alex Noren is unlucky not to have, Nicolai Hojgaard has been runner-up at both, and Danny Willett has played notably well in just a couple of starts in the Farmers Insurance Open.
Hovland then has everything going for him. It’s rare he plays in events of this standard and while not at his absolute best in 2025, he’s the class act in this field by quite some way. He also went off the same price in India versus Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Ben Griffin, Brian Harman and Shane Lowry, all of whom are at least one step ahead of the competition he faces here.
Granted a solid start when he takes to the tee in one of Thursday’s feature groups, Hovland should be hard to beat.
Thorbjorn Olesen has some of the strongest course form on offer and is respected as a fairly frequent winner whose latest start at altitude saw him finish third in Utah, but ready preference is for CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT, for my money the pick of the home contingent who are definitely advantaged by conditions.
Granted, driver isn’t his strongest club but that hasn’t stopped him here and after a good first look around, his last three results read 1-5-6. The first of these came in the SA Open five years ago, one week after he’d won at Leopard Creek, the last two here in the Nedbank, dubbed ‘Africa’s major’ and a title he’ll desperately want to win to complete the set.
Bezuidenhout was out of form coming here in 2022 yet still finished fifth then third in the Joburg Open, he wasn’t at his best in 2023 but went 9-17-3 when returning home, and last year he’d taken an extended break of three months before rocking up at this devilishly difficult course and finishing a good sixth.
All of this demonstrates just how comfortable he is under these conditions and having been inside the top 10 after 10 of his last 12 rounds at Sun City, the driving handicap he has to overcome most weeks need not apply. Indeed, last year he gained strokes on the field and might well have been in position to win had his typically assured iron play not deserted him.
That seems unlikely this time as whereas a year ago he was entitled to be rusty, here he’s coming in off his best approach numbers since May in Utah, yet more evidence of his ability to make the necessary adjustments at altitude, and before that he’d produced back-to-back top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour for the very first time.
Those performances elevated him to fourth in DataGolf’s ranking of this field but that’s before we take into account home advantage and his winning form at the course. I couldn’t have anyone bar Hovland and perhaps Penge ahead of him in the market and anything 16s or bigger rates a bet.
Detry can seal major starts
Bezuidenhout’s best finish this year came in Phoenix, where THOMAS DETRY was a runaway winner, and he’s another who appears to be rounding back into form.
In Detry’s case it might be in the nick of time, as having made his Masters debut following that Phoenix romp, he’s currently 56th in the world and therefore not exempt for any of next year’s majors. Augusta in particular will be hard to get into without cracking the top 50 and this no-cut event presents him with an excellent opportunity to do just that.
Detry is long off the tee and a record of 7-3-13-36 in this demonstrates that Sun City is a good fit, which is further supported by a four-from-four record at Torrey Pines where he has a couple of top-20s and has contended. And while this is in some ways very different to Scottsdale itself, that course is a proper test of ball-striking under constant pressure, so there are some similarities in the questions that are posed.
As with Hovland though it’s what Detry did last time, in Korea in his case, which really draws me to him. Needing a big week there to secure DP World Tour status for 2026, something he desperately wanted to do as he seeks to continue to be a two-tour player, he finished seventh courtesy of his best ball-striking since the US Open, which was in turn his best since Phoenix.
It was especially pleasing to see his iron play click and if he can sustain it at a course where he produced something close to career-best numbers back in 2019, he can underline his class and return to the top 50 in the world in the process.
Thriston Lawrence is often hard to weigh up and that’s especially true this week, as his modest course record masks tee-to-green rankings of sixth, eighth and second. In other words, one of his better putting weeks and he might already have his name on this famous trophy, as he has both the Joburg and SA Open.
Two wins in Crans, two in Johannesburg and another in Munich underline how comfortable he is in the thin air and I don’t think anyone would be at all surprised were he to add another title to his growing collection. Equally, of the better players in this field I don’t think there’s anyone more likely to blow out completely and, his recent form patchy, I’m inclined to look elsewhere.
Swede success on return from PGA Tour
Powerhouse Christo Lamprecht is interesting and certainly has potential at a course where fellow young slugger Aldrich Potgieter led through 54 holes a year ago. The latter arrives after a withdrawal and I’m surprised the gap between them is as wide as it is, with Lamprecht much more appealing having been runner-up on his sole DP World Tour start as a professional and won on the Korn Ferry Tour this year.
But I’d rather chance JESPER SVENSSON, up there with those two as one of the longest drivers in the field.
The Swede returns to the DP World Tour having done just enough to earn conditional PGA Tour status for 2026, so it’ll be interesting to see what he does schedule-wise. It looks like he’ll get a decent second go at the latter if he wants it, but it will remain a big challenge to play his way into the Signature Events, or even the FedExCup Playoffs.
Still, he has shown this year that he’s good enough to compete out there, because he’s had a torrid time on the greens lately yet still almost cracked the top 100. Svensson ranked 44th in strokes-gained tee-to-green, just behind Nicolai Hojgaard, just ahead of Ludvig Aberg, and confirmed himself one of the longest and best drivers of a golf ball anywhere, but he just couldn’t take full advantage.
We saw glimpses of that long-game prowess when 36th on his Nedbank debut and with his approach play both good back then and back at that level now, it really ought to come down to the putter and whether he can return to the lofty heights of 2025, when that club was almost as big a part of his breakout campaign as his driver was.
You’d have a hard time drawing confidence from recent performances but he did sign off the PGA Tour season with a round of 63 at Sea Island, coming home in 30 blows thanks to an extraordinary ball-striking display which saw him gain more than five strokes from tee-to-green in just 18 holes of golf.
Even that round was hamstrung somewhat by three misses from 5-10ft and there is a big concern about him from that sort of range, but a change of scenery and switch to these bentgrass putting surfaces might just make the difference. That’s exactly what happened with Veerman last year and Svensson is a good putting week away from a massive performance.
With both his win and his other standout efforts last year all having come on courses where his driving is especially useful, Svensson can follow the likes of Potgieter and Nicolai Hojgaard in contending at this beast of a golf course.
None of the genuine outsiders appealed, with pocket powerhouse Alejandro del Rey likely to find too many trouble spots, Richard Mansell poor in both previous visits, and Adrian Meronk’s improvement in Saudi Arabia last time not enough to merit a collapsing price at the time of writing.
Kristoffer Reitan has played 20 events in South Africa without cracking the top 40 even once, so the only other names on my list were those of Jordan Smith and Laurie Canter.
We’re awaiting confirmation that the latter is returning to LIV Golf in 2026, which should come in time for his PGA Tour card to be passed down to Dan Brown, but that distraction is a little off-putting despite something close to a career-best in Dubai last time.
Smith took great encouragement from the way he stepped up to win that PGA Tour card and is getting to grips with Sun City, but at the end of a long, stressful year, I wonder how much he has left in the tank. That shouldn’t be the case with Hovland, while the motivations of my other three selections are very clear.
More content for the new DP World Tour season
Posted at 17:00 GMT on 01/12/25
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