Ben Coley has tipped a winner and a runner-up in the last two editions of the RSM Classic. Get his best bets for the final PGA Tour event of 2025.
Golf betting tips: RSM Classic
3pts win Brian Harman at 25/1 (General)
3pts win Michael Thorbjornsen at 25/1 (General)
1.5pts e.w. Sahith Theegala at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Mac Meissner at 60/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Luke Clanton at 75/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Doc Redman at 225/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. John Pak at 300/1 (William Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets
One week after a thrilling conclusion to the Race to Dubai, the PGA Tour reaches its rather less explosive climax in the RSM Classic, where as well as a title and all the rewards that brings, there will be a battle for status.
There are now only 100 PGA Tour cards to be handed out and while the reality may be that those who have to make do with conditional status are able to play something like a full schedule, I don’t know as that matters in the here and now. As we saw in Bermuda, players around the bubble are all desperate to finish the right side of the cut-off and for as long as that’s the case, tensions will remain extremely high.
Of course, at the front of the betting we’ve a collection for whom winning wouldn’t change much, at least not in terms of schedule, but it’s those for whom this is a first start in a long time I’d be wary of. The RSM Classic is a bit of an end-of-term party hosted by the many PGA Tour professionals who live here on Sea Island, and there are some who turn up to enjoy it without necessarily being fully prepared.
Last year, we struck the crossbar with 80/1 Daniel Berger and he’s now back at a third of the price, yet he was last seen withdrawing from the penultimate event of the FedExCup Playoffs. Denny McCarthy has also been absent for four months, Harris English hasn’t been seen since Saturday of the Ryder Cup, and it’s questionable whether former champion Chris Kirk can be classified as ‘in-form’ given his brace of top-10s happened during the first two weeks of August.
These players are all towards the top of a market which is as open as it gets at 25/1 the field and with Si Woo Kim never looking suited to this, Rico Hoey equally unlikely to putt well enough and Thorbjorn Olesen a course debutant perhaps not perfectly suited to the demands of Seaside or Plantation, I’m left reducing the likeliest winners to two standout options.
First is BRIAN HARMAN who, while lightly raced, played four weeks ago on the DP World Tour where he was in contention behind Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry, eventually finishing alongside Rory McIlroy in 26th place.
Harman had been in the mix throughout the first 54 holes until making a mess of the first on Sunday, nevertheless it was a highly encouraging return to action, evidence that the quality he showed throughout the previous six months had not been lost to a couple of months away, yet evidence too of how such an absence so often catches a player out.
At the end of the regular season, one which saw him win in Texas and add third place at Harbour Town, Harman was striking the ball really nicely and in seven starts since the US Open, only on a big-hitters’ set-up in the Scottish Open was he subdued. Away from that he has form figures of 8-10-22-19-13-26, four of these powered by quality approach play, his driver largely accurate, and his short-game having come to life.
More of the same and he seems a very likely contender at Sea Island, where he’s a longtime resident. Down the years he’s managed three top-10s including second place in 2022 and fourth in 2017, and he flew home for a solid 25th last year. His disappointing display in 2023 came after a long break since the Ryder Cup and generally, his failures here have come when his form has been poor.
This time he’s playing well, he has the benefit of recent, competitive action in a quality field, he’s a winner this year, and his blend of accurate driving, sharp approach play and big putting potential is ideal for a largely benign Sea Island. Should the wind whip up on Saturday then the former Open champion will have no fears whatsoever, and I really do expect him to be challenging for this title over the weekend.
MICHAEL THORBJORNSEN is a very different player, his main weapon coming in the shape of his driver, and I’d say he’s a tad unfortunate that this run of FedExFall events doesn’t feature many courses where he can put it to full use.
Maybe Utah should be considered the exception given the way that leaderboard shaped up in the end, but certainly I don’t think the set-up in Mexico last time was in his favour yet he produced another decent week to extend his run of cuts made to six and continue to hint at better to come.
Third place behind Xander Schauffele in Japan, fourth behind Alrich Potgieter in Detroit and second in the Corales Puntacana to another big-hitter do demonstrate where he’s been at his most dangerous, but Thorbjornsen was eighth here last year and said then how much he loved the Seaside Course, which hosts three rounds along with one at the more sheltered Plantation.
That came after a withdrawal in Utah as he dealt with a persistent knee issue at a time when he was battling for status, whereas one year on he needs something like a top-three finish in this to gain access to the first two Signature Events next year. Given that they’re in California and that he went to college there at Stanford, motivation levels are bound to be high.
Thorbjornsen is also 74th in the world so there are huge parallels with Maverick McNealy, another Stanford graduate, who turned up here ranked 67th and not sure of his schedule for the early part of the following season. McNealy broke through to win his first PGA Tour title and the following February not only played in the Genesis Invitational but almost won it, moving to a career-high 14th in the world as a result.
Thorbjornsen is heading in the same direction and while there are certainly courses where his power can be more of an asset, he’s a much more rounded golfer than he was this time last year. I’m hesitant to finish the sentence that begins ‘if he putts well…’, but just as McNealy and Ludvig Aberg have done, I do believe he has an excellent chance of setting up a massive season ahead by winning this.
Vince Whaley was high on my list but having overlooked him at 28/1 in the Bermuda Championship, taking only a fraction bigger in this deeper field isn’t for me. He’s contended here the last twice but seemed to enjoy stiffer breezes in 2024, just as he did in Bermuda last week, and while an elite putter I just can’t have him at the odds. He’s getting better all the time but there are more capable golfers at bigger prices.
One of them is SAHITH THEEGALA and at 50/1, he might just be ready to end a frustrating, injury-hit year on a high.
Theegala withdrew from the Truist Championship in May, missed the cut when returning three weeks later, then spent six weeks on the sidelines before understandably struggling in the Open. After two more starts, we didn’t see him again until the Procore in September, where he sounded much more upbeat regarding his health.
Having started well there to lie 14th at halfway before fading, Theegala then spent the first three rounds of the Baycurrent Classic inside the top 10, before another solid start in Utah again had him close to the lead. Then, last week, he sounded bullish before the start of the Bermuda Championship, saying: “Yeah, game honestly feels great. If I can just roll in a few putts, that really cost me the last few weeks.”
Theegala got off to a nightmare start in howling winds but let’s not forget, his side of the draw had it particularly bad. It wasn’t therefore all that surprising that he carded a second-round 65 to make the cut, a fine effort and the kind that helps build further layers of confidence, although Theegala didn’t seem to be lacking in that department when speaking afterwards.
“I felt confident,” he said. “I don’t know why, sometimes you play good golf or bad golf, whatever it is, and you’re not confident. I had a bad day yesterday and I still had the confidence in my golf game. Again, just really pleased that it kept like all the work that I’ve put in, all the reps of the last month or so are coming to fruition and able to score the ball a little bit better.
“It means the world to make another cut and play the weekend. Just looking for some good momentum for next year.”
Theegala played well for most of round three, too, making one very costly mistake midway through his second nine, so while it was in the end a modest finish in extreme conditions, things are definitely looking up to the extent that I could see him producing four good rounds for the first time all year now that the cobwebs have been blown away.
Runner-up here in 2022, putting well on bermuda greens which are no longer alien to him, Theegala returns for the first time since with his approach play firing in the main, his first and third-best performances of the season coming in his only two measured starts since returning to action.
Given the upside, odds of 40/1 and bigger make him a bet.
Max McGreevy also suffered the worst of the draw yet was one or two good swings from potentially winning in Bermuda. He’s been clipped to a similar price now but his form here is inferior, the top of the betting is stronger, and I can let him go. Likewise, Chandler Phillips was among last year’s picks and finished a good 11th at a course he knows, but he’s about the minimum price for me now and that means we look elsewhere.
Instead, I’m going to put up MAC MEISSNER again having been on for 14th in the Sanderson Farms and 27th in the Bank of Utah Championship, both a little frustrating but nevertheless strong performances.
His form has really turned since he chased home Cam Young in the Wyndham and right now there aren’t many in better control of their ball. He’s gained strokes from tee-to-green in all five measured starts since the 3M Open and this comes from through-the-bag strength, meaning it’s all been down to whether the putter clicks.
Here’s where I draw particular encouragement: it did so at the Wyndham, on the bermuda greens of Sedgefield, and to just a slightly lesser degree in Jackson, again on bermuda greens. He’s putted well on them before, including in a previous edition of the Wyndham and in the Myrtle Beach Classic. So far in a career still in its infancy, he’s as much as three-quarters of a stroke per round better on these surfaces.
If therefore he putts well on his RSM Classic debut, the strength of his ball-striking makes him an ideal candidate, one who does have experience of these courses from his amateur days. Hailing from South Carolina, like two former winners of this, his form at both the Wyndham and Colonial ties him in with Kevin Kisner and just as the latter broke through to win this a decade ago, I’m hopeful Meissner can.
Clanton to go one better?
Patrick Rodgers was the other player prominent in the market who I came close to siding with. He’s a former runner-up here with a couple of other top-10s and if we ignore last week, his previous sixth place in Mexico was his best golf since he began working with a new coach this summer. He’d be a fitting champion after fellow Indiana native Adam Schenk finally got off the mark last week.
I just don’t think there’s a great deal of mileage in the price and keep coming back to the fact that, on paper, Sea Island isn’t necessarily a great fit for him. Typically this is more about approach play than driving and while his putter has been elite in the past, in recent years he’s been no better than average. He’s one of several in the middle of the market I just couldn’t find enough enthusiasm for.
There’s an exception who has obvious potential upside albeit with more risk, and that’s LUKE CLANTON.
I thought long and hard about this one too but ultimately felt that last year’s runner-up, while still an amateur let’s not forget, was worth the benefit of the doubt. Again, last week’s missed cut comes with an excuse as he was out early on day one, and to be honest I would say the course is among the least suitable for him anyway.
These, we know, are not. He was excellent last year, dealing with a marquee grouping alongside defending champion Aberg, and should at least have made a play-off with McNealy. Clanton made a silly mistake at the final hole, perhaps a naive one as he was ultra-aggressive, and it cost him in the end.
There’s no denying that he’s been underwhelming since turning pro but I’m hopeful the return here will spark something and certainly, bermuda greens and the general conditions here ought to be a positive for a Florida-born youngster whose best results so far have come in the south east.
And there have been some positives of late. Clanton gained strokes putting in the Sanderson Farms and again in Utah, his last two measured starts, and across those two he drove it superbly in Jackson and hit his irons better in Utah. After these came a first start in Mexico, where despite never featuring he did at least improve each day.
Bermuda needs excusing but we did see him card a second-round 69 after being blown off course from that early tee-time in round one, and all things considered he hasn’t looked that far away from the player who went off 33/1 for his pro debut this summer, in an event featuring Rory McIlroy, Aberg, Shane Lowry, Sam Burns, Corey Conners and Robert MacIntyre.
These are the only golfers who were shorter in the betting than Clanton, which serves as a reminder of the potential we’re dealing with. Given his performance 12 months ago, I can’t resist taking a chance at 50s and bigger.
Finally, there are two at enormous prices I like and rather than try to find a reason to leave one or indeed both of them out, I’ll put them forward but with a clear basement of 200/1. Anything less than that and I’d be inclined to let them go but to my eye they wouldn’t be surprising contenders at least, even if winning is a big ask with nothing less required if they’re to earn 2026 status.
First is DOC REDMAN, a top price of 300/1 at the time of writing.
Based on his form on the Korn Ferry Tour, Redman would hold very limited appeal but I can give him a pass for a tough season on the road, as he became a dad late last year. Evidently, as he alluded to in a recent interview, he struggled to adjust and wasn’t in a good place mentally.
It took just a week back home for things to turn and after Monday qualifying for the Sanderson Farms, he ranked first in strokes-gained tee-to-green and finished in ninth place despite an opening 75. That earned him another start in Utah, where his tee-to-green game was solid and the putter warmed up a little as he made it seven good rounds in eight for 20th place.
On those efforts he’s really interesting at Sea Island, where he was 23rd on debut some years ago and has shown promising signs with his long-game more than once, so I hope he can go a long way to justifying a sponsors’ invitation.
Second at Congaree, third at the Wyndham and fourth in Bermuda are among his most notable PGA Tour efforts, all on bermuda greens similar to these, while he’s also been 11th on a short course at the Travelers, second in a low-scoring Rocket Mortgage Classic, and a staying-on third in California when accuracy counted more than power.
That’s always been Redman’s forte and I would maintain that this is a good challenge for him, in the right part of the US given his North Carolina roots.
Finally, I’ll take a stab at JOHN PAK at massive prices, another who was on the wrong side of the draw last week.
Pak was the first winner of the PGA Tour University rankings after a decorated amateur career which saw him play Walker Cup golf. It took him a while to get this far but a win on the Korn Ferry Tour last summer finally earned him status, that having come in a low-scoring event, before which he’d been third here in Georgia at a similar golf course, one where RSM winner Adam Svensson is a past champion.
Like Svensson, he’s a straight driver (17th in driving accuracy) and his approach play has been solid during a largely difficult PGA Tour season, the cause of that having been his short-game: he’s average around the green but has been towards the bottom of the putting stats, currently ranking 172nd of 179 players.
Still, Hoey is dead last and he’s almost favourite and just as the Philippines golfer has improved on the greens lately, so it seems has Pak. We can’t validate this with strokes-gained data as there hasn’t been any the past fortnight, but he’s averaged under 1.7 putts per hole for the first time since the John Deere Classic in July, which stands out as his best strokes-gained putting performance of the year.
More tangibly, he closed with a bogey-free 64 for 17th place in Mexico then fought hard to make the weekend in Bermuda, where he ranked third for putts per green in regulation on Sunday and was about the best in the field over the final three rounds. Again, these aren’t robust stats, but they do seem to indicate improvement from a player who is being dangled at massive odds.
The kicker is that he’s played plenty of golf at Sea Island down the years and as these are courses which play into the hands of accurate drivers like him, the prospect of improved putting aligning with both suitability and familiarity, not to mention his pedigree, is very much appealing. Top prices were taken on Monday but again, 200/1 and upwards will do for a last throw of the dice.
Posted at 0900 GMT on 18/11/25
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