The sixth stop on FedExCup Fall heads to Bermuda with the Dimers model identifying a number of golfers to back for a win at Port Royal Golf Course, led by Matt Kuchar at +4000.
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We also have some PGA Tour action this week. The Butterfield Bermuda Championship. I believe this is the first time in the fall. We’ve got back-to-back weeks with a fall PGA Tour event. And that seems good because our models on fire with golf right now. So, where are we headed for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship? Well, we’re headed to Bermuda. And yes, I don’t want to wait another week because I want to get right back on this horse with the Dimes model that is crushing these fall events. Uh, as mentioned, we cashed Ben Griffin outright and in the ladder last week, JJ Spawn, Matt Cuchar, uh, two other winner picks we had, both finished in the top 20. Both were T11, I believe. Uh, so really good stuff from the model last week. Gonna run through this one pretty quickly and, uh, then I’ll bring up projections. I’ll just bring up the projections now. Um, one thing to note, we don’t have the odds coming in on the site for some reason right now. Uh just a little hold up on the back end, but we do have all of our predictions and I’ve just manually checked the odds for all of us because I’m a dedicated podcaster. Uh so let’s dive into this here. Um so yeah. Yeah. Uh Port Royal Golf Course in Bermuda. Uh $6 million purse. Uh par 71 just over 6,800 yards. It’s uh the only course that has ever hosted this event. So, anyone who’s played here before will be familiar with the course. Uh, it is one of the shortest courses and it has pretty large greens just like last week. So, patience and precision uh with the putter are definitely going to come into play, but it’s not easy because there’s going to be a lot of wind. Uh, looks like sustained winds of 20 miles per hour, gusts up to 30 on like early weather reports. So, something to keep in mind all weekend long here. But overall, the holes themselves are not inherently difficult. The par fives are all under 555. Six of the par4s are under 400. Uh some of the extra length comes on par 3es that are over 200. So it’s not a uh inherently difficult course, but the extra factors are going to be what uh comes into play here. So honestly would be worth looking at the weather u before you maybe place some per round bets and see if someone’s going to be teeing off when the wind gusts are higher. You might want to avoid them or fade them a little bit and look at somebody if they project similarly who has a more favorable tea time with the weather. Uh but so you look at our overall projections. We got uh running it back with Matt Cuchar here at the top five and a half percent our favorite. Uh he’s plus 4,000 at DraftKings. So you’re getting a really nice edge here. Uh he would be let me see 5 and a half percent under plus 2,000 for fair odds. Probably about plus 1,800 I believe. Uh made a run last week at a familiar course. Now he’s got a chance to do so again. stringing together a really good fall. T13, T18, and T11 in his past three fall events after doing a very l lackluster regular season. 15th ranked putter, 36th in driving accuracy. Uh so he’s got pretty much the tools you need here. If he can just cut through some of that wind, it shouldn’t be too hard for him to be in contention. Notably, he’s 110th in the FedEx Cup rankings. Top 100 automatically get a bid next season. He can use a career exemption if he’s outside that, but he probably doesn’t want to given that he’s this close. I would expect him to make a pretty tough push, uh, strong push this week. Our second most likely winner, Nikicoia, 4.8%. Uh, you can get him plus 2,800 on DraftKings. Really good form to close the year. He missed the cut to open fall, but he finished T38 in the FedEx St. Jude Championship, just missing out on uh the next event there. and then ninth and T14 in his past two fall events. Another really excellent putter at eighth, 48th in driving accuracy. So, pretty similar profile to Cuchar and our second most likely winner of the tournament. Both those guys are absolutely on my card. Uh Mattie Schmidt plus 30,000 on DraftKings. He made a run last week, was in the lead after I think it was round two. Uh finished T8 on the weekend. Very good result. Five top 10s this year. peaked with a solo second uh back at the Charles Schwab. Another really good putter. Ranks 31st. Not accurate at all off the tea, well below average, but he’s 25th on distance. Uh and very, very good on approach from 200 yards or more. Third best. So, uh if he can at least keep the ball in the fairway, avoid the wind, he should be able to shorten up these holes with his irons. Just about fair odds at 3%. uh pulled a solo third here I think in 2023. So familiarity with the course. Uh and one more here uh Matt Wallace plus 3500 on DraftKings. He was a guy we looked at last week as well. Couple of cuts in the fall events but also a T3 T-27 to finish the regular season. T10, T31 in two fall events. So pretty solid form for a guy outside the top ranks. Not a lot of metrics to blow you blow you away. very middle of the pack in putting and driving, but uh he does rank 16th in scrambling around the green. So, you know, a couple weward shots and he might be able to take advantage and steal a few birdies. He’d be fair at plus 2,800 with our 3.4% probability. So, uh just a little bit of an edge there at plus 3500 odds. I’ll uh I’ll play all four of these guys. I usually do with the model. I play every edge and then I look at two, three or four guys that I like based on course fit. Um, you know, usually regardless of the models odds because realistically it’s anyone’s tournament with these. Uh, it’s a really weak field. Uh, I think only about I don’t even think it’s a full field. I think it’s a 78man field, but it’s really weak. There are like no top ranked golfers in this. So really anybody’s to to steal and uh we’re on a pretty good run with the model so no reason to really fade it right now. Absolutely. Yeah, it’s uh I I like these golf tournaments where the stars aren’t there. Don’t get me wrong, I love watching Scotty Sheffler, Rory Maroy. As a golf fan, you don’t want to miss them, but it’s chaos when they’re not there. It’s just anybody’s tournament when the the best in the world are not in action. Count me in on Mattie Schmidt. I think that’s my play this week. 30 to1. Love those odds. Uh yeah, he he was unreal at points last week and to have a good history third in this tournament, I think uh his eyes are going to be lit up. So Schmidt is the one I’ll tack my name on to here. Thank you Dave very
