Fresh off cashing a top 20 bet for Nick Dunlap, we look to continue our winning ways this week as the PGA Tour makes the trek to Bermuda for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, held once again at Port Royal.
This is a unique course by Tour standards as it plays only about 6,800 yards, with the only mid- to long-iron shots coming on the par 3s. The scoring is heavily dependent on both wind strength and direction, and heavy winds are in the forecast. That said, this course still features a lot of wedges for approach shots, so plenty of birdies will still be made. In terms of targeting a certain skill set this week, I would look at elite wedge players who play well in the wind. Length off the tee does not provide that much of an edge. The 120-player field this week is extremely weak at the bottom, with sponsor exemptions and a few local players who are very unlikely to make the cut. This will likely lead to some value in the finish position market, especially in top-30 and top-40 markets, with realistically only 100 players vying for these spots. Let’s take a look at two players:
Matt Kuchar: Top 30, -110
This is Matt Kuchar’s first time playing the event, and I believe we are getting a cheap price because of that. He is a great fit for this course. He excels in the wind and is an above-average wedge player. He enters this event in good form, finishing 18th or better in all three starts this fall. In a small, weak field on a short course with wind expected, Kuchar seems to be one of the best value bets of the week.
Vince Whaley: Top 30, -105
Vince Whaley has earned great success at Port Royal, finishing eighth or better in each of his last three starts at this event. Now he comes into this year’s tournament arguably in the best form of his career. He hasn’t missed a cut in his last 16 events dating back to April. In what is essentially a 100-player field, Whaley’s consistency and course history should allow him to cash a top-30 wager for us this week.
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