And, then, mathematically there are three players – Rory McIlroy, Marco Penge and Tyrrell Hatton – who have it within their gift to lay claim to the Harry Vardon Trophy for topping the DP World Tour order of merit which will be decided at this week’s Tour Championship finale at The Earth course at Jumeriah resort in Dubai.
In truth, though, there is really one. For McIlroy – looking for a seventh order of merit title – has destiny in his own hands and it would take a rather strange turn of events for the Northern Irishman not to close the deal as he has done for the past three years on a course tailor-made for his game.
The numbers game is straightforward. As it stands, McIlroy has a 767 points lead over his nearest challenger, Penge, in the Race to Dubai standings in the limited field event – 52 players, made up of 50 leading players off the order of merit plus Shane Lowry and Ludvig Aberg who earn exemptions as members of Europe’s Ryder Cup winning team from Bethpage who finished outside the qualifying number – and 1,721 over Hatton and, so, is strongly positioned to again close the deal.
This week’s tournament has elevated points – with 2,000 to the winner, 1,335 to the runner-up, 752 to third and a reduction place-by-place all the way down to 57 points for 50th – which at least provides a touch of jeopardy, although Penge’s main hope would be to win and for McIlroy to finish outside the top-three for any change at the top.
McIlroy’s form on The Earth course is impressive, having won the championship itself three times – 2012, 2015 and 2024 – with only Jon Rahm matching that feat. In the past three years, he has added the Harry Vardon Trophy to his career CV with finishes of first (2024), tied-22nd (2023) and fourth (2022).
Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland poses for a selfie with the DP World Tour Championship trophy on the 18th green following victory at the DP World Tour Championship 2024. Photograph: Luke Walker/Getty
In all, McIlroy has six order of merit titles (2012, 2014, 2015, 2022, 2023 and 2024) which has him placed second in the all-time list alongside Seve Ballesteros and two behind Colin Montgomerie’s record eight. Should McIlroy close the deal this week in Dubai, he will move to solo second on seven with Monty very much in his sights going forward.
The Tour Championship brings an end to the DP World Tour season but McIlroy won’t be putting his clubs away, committed to playing next month’s Australian Open. As for next season, McIlroy has already announced that he will kick-start his 2026 season back in Dubai, playing in the Dubai Invitational and the Dubai Desert Classic in back-to-back weeks in January.
“I’ll always look at the schedule at the start of the year and see what best fits me and my life, and everything else that I do with family or other opportunities that I’m pursuing outside of golf,” said McIlroy of how he intends to plan his itinerary going forward.
There are three Irish players competing in this week’s with McIlroy and Lowry joined by Tom McKibbin.
Séamus Power, meanwhile, returns to a favoured hunting ground when he competes in the Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal in Southampton where he won in 2022.
The Bermuda event is the penultimate tournament of the PGA Tour’s FedEx Fall Series – with only next week’s RSM Classic at Sea Island in Georgia remaining – and Power has work to do if he is to regain his full PGA Tour card for next season.
The Waterford man is currently 133rd in the PGA Tour order of merit with only the top 100 after Sea Island earning full playing rights for next season while the top 125 will earn conditional status. Power will likely need a top-three finish either this week or next to move inside the top 100.
Pádraig Harrington – winner of the US Seniors Open and the Seniors Open this season – and Darren Clarke have both made it to the Charles Schwab Cup Championship, the limited-field finale to the Champions Tour season, which will be played at Phoenix Country Club.
