Ben Coley previews the Rolex Grand Final, where 20 DP World Tour cards are up for grabs, and has selections ranging from 25/1 to 150/1.
Golf betting tips: Rolex Grand Final
3pts win Renato Paratore at 25/1 (BoyleSports)
3pts win Filippo Celli at 28/1 (General, 33/1 in places)
1pt e.w. Will Enefer at 55/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
0.5pt e.w. Sam Jones at 150/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
One year ago, Kristoffer Reitan came to the Challenge Tour Grand Final needing a top-four finish to earn his DP World Tour card and while the rest might not exactly be history, it is notable if you’re the sort of person who would at least consider watching, perhaps even betting on, the 2025 renewal.
Reitan didn’t just settle for fourth, he went and won his first professional title of any note, capitalising on a series of mishaps from Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen late on. Now, after a smash-and-grab at the Soudal Open, the Norwegian isn’t so much preparing for life on the PGA Tour, more looking like he’s made for it. One week changed the entire course of his career and it came here in Mallorca.
With Angel Ayora tied for second alongside Neergaard-Petersen, the pair of them beaten by a shot, it was a strong if extremely low-scoring renewal of the Grand Final, one which is sure to throw up one PGA Tour member from what looked a quality class of graduates at the time, but looks better still now.
Rewind a further year and Marco Penge dazzled in the first clear demonstration of his potential. Like Reitan, he needed a big week and like Reitan, he’ll be on the PGA Tour next year. This remains the golden highway to Q-School’s rocky road – come through what’s now the Rolex Grand Final and you’ll have the opportunity to make a name for yourself. There’s a good chance you’ll have the class, too.
For those unfamiliar, there are 45 players in the field and from them, the top 20 on the season-long Road to Mallorca will earn DP World Tour membership. Reitan was the only player to climb from outside to in but each of the top three in 2023 did it, as did two in 2022. More than zero but fewer than five seems the likeliest outcome but it may not be until the final shots are struck that we know specifically who has done enough. Last year, Jamie Rutherford’s par on the final hole wasn’t quite enough but a birdie would’ve been. He returns, cruelly, as the man ranked 20th.
Club de Golf Alcanada hosts for the fourth year running and fifth time in total and, before Reitan played its five scoring holes in 20-under for a perfect 1:1 chance-to-birdie ratio, it had been a fearsome test owing to its exposed, seaside location and typically strong winds. They relented last year and, with soft greens to aim at, 43 of 46 players broke par. Scoring was about 15 shots easier for the 72 holes versus 2023 and a similarly tough 2022 renewal.
This year’s forecast is neither calm nor especially threatening, meaning we can perhaps look towards a score somewhere between Penge (10-under, six clear of second) and Reitan (23-under). Less easy to figure out is whether powerhouses like these two, Ayora and 2023 runner-up Tom Vaillant are set to be heavily favoured, but four par-fives plus a driveable par-four suggest that they ought to be even without much in the way of rain so far this autumn.
Ultimately, driver does look to be a key club. Among those to have played 30-plus rounds, Penge leads the DP World Tour in strokes-gained off-the-tee. The players ranked second, third and fourth? Ayora, Neergaard-Petersen, and Reitan. Kimsey, who says driver is his best club, ranks a lofty 22nd despite being less powerful.
That leads me to FILIPPO CELLI, one of the longer drivers on the circuit and someone with a profile similar to that of Penge and Reitan, except with his card locked up already.
The young Italian isn’t the safest conveyance in that he lacks the consistency of some, but his ceiling is high and the golf he produced to win the Dutch Futures was among the most impressive seen at this level all year.
He’s since seemingly gone off the boil, but there was promise in the way he finished the Hainan Open before he played well for three rounds the following week. Celli’s Sunday 74 in Hangzhou hides the fact he was right in the mix and definitely helps with the price.
And whereas he had very little experience in China, Spain has been a happy hunting ground, right back to when he fended off Neergaard-Petersen to win the European Amateur in 2022, at a golf course, El Saler, which is very much similar to this one on paper.
That earned Celli a place in the Open, where he won the Silver Medal for low amateur, and he has some correlating form at Royal Obidos that I like. That’s where Penge first won but there are a dozen or more players who’ve performed well both there and at Alcanada, and I can see Celli becoming the latest.
His first notable Challenge Tour effort came when losing a six-man play-off in Spain, again by the coast at a course where big-hitters have often been favoured, and going back to his victory that came on an exposed course in the Netherlands. He’d got fond memories of playing there, too.
Returning to Spain and the right kind of golf course, the chance to back one of the biggest talents in the field at a prices north of 20/1 has to be taken.
By now the market has a good steer on the top players but I’d say it lacks any subtlety. JC Ritchie is favourite because on balance he might be just about the best player, yet these probably aren’t ideal conditions. Oihan Guillemoundeguy has real potential and parallels with Ayora, not just in hair style, but his win rather fell in his lap and the field was weak. There’s surely no upside in 12/1.
David Law is more tempting at a best of 18/1 as he’s a winner by the coast in Australia, has a couple of top-10s on an easy links course at home in Scotland, loves the exposed, driver-heavy Al Hamra, and has bounced back from his last three missed cuts with top-10 finishes next time out.
But at a bigger price I find it hard to get away from RENATO PARATORE, who has had three chances to win this year and taken them all.
As with Celli, he can’t boast the consistency of some of the favourites but that’s plainly baked into the price given that he’s around eighth to 10th in the betting despite being the proven class act in the field, not just this year but over the past decade.
Victories in Sweden and England on the big tour both came in mid-level scoring conditions and he almost bagged a third when beaten in a play-off by the coast in Mauritius, while he can boast a top-10 finish in the Dunhill Links, too. Reitan, Neergaard-Petersen and Ayora all have one of those despite having played in it just six times between them.
Fourth at Doha, known for its links-style, coastal qualities, Paratore has always gone well under exposed conditions and his two trips to Royal Obidos also offer promise, having been 15th and 21st. Both came amid patchy runs of form.
He won back-to-back in the Middle East in April to all but secure promotion to the DP World Tour and then won again in China, shooting a fabulous 66-66 weekend before taking the title in a play-off, and his proven winning class deserves more respect for all that he comes with risks attached given his occasional waywardness.
This course should suit Paratore, who is long enough and has a dynamite short-game, and like his younger compatriot his professional career began in earnest when he came through Final Stage here in Spain. It seems eminently possible to me that he wins for a fourth time this year.
Given their respective profiles I’m happy enough splitting stakes win-only, but there’s place value betting a quarter the first five in this small field if readers prefer to play each-way.
Leftfield selection
Spanish duo Sebastian Garcia and Rocco Repetto Taylor have home advantage and were tied for fifth at Royal Obidos so each has to be respected. The former had telegraphed his win last time out, while Repetto Taylor has backed up his shock victory in Spain earlier in the year, his rapid rise set to end with DP World Tour membership whatever happens this week.
At big prices, Victor Pastor made some appeal as he’s twice been runner-up in his native Spain, both at Novo Sancti Petri. That course is close to his childhood home and one he knows well, but it might prove a decent guide to his prospects here and he delivered his best result in months when sixth in China to sneak into the field.
Pastor has been trimmed in the betting though and I’m more inclined to chance SAM JONES, the left-hander who came through Final Stage with Celli a couple of years ago, just after he’d turned professional.
Unsurprisingly, the Kiwi didn’t manage to keep his DP World Tour card but there were flashes of promise and he showed himself to be a good driver, ranking inside the top 30 in distance and gaining strokes off the tee. He says that club is his favourite and it’s easy to see why.
That and his apparent comfort by the coast are the two main positives as I see them and it’s probably not a coincidence that among his best efforts this year was a top-five finish in the NTT Data Pro-Am, an event which features a couple of exposed courses and has twice been won by powerhouse Wilco Nienaber.
The latter is of some interest here but he’s been disappointing since and while Jones does arrive off back-to-back missed cuts, these were his first two starts in China. He ran up some big numbers which were costly, undermining 20 birdies and an eagle across his four rounds, but there was plenty of promise too.
When last playing in Europe, Jones followed sixth in Sweden with a solid effort in Poland, where he was inside the top 10 at halfway, and a good rally to make the weekend in Portugal. If we overlook his two starts in China he looks overpriced and I’m happy to do so on the basis that he really should enjoy Alcanada.
Julien Sale is long enough and has plenty of experience contending in Spain so he made the shortlist, but WILL ENEFER has a better profile for this, especially as he is the only player in the field to have won a professional event at the course in the past.
The capable Englishman has only missed one cut in 14 since the beginning of June, during which time he’s bagged three top-five finishes to climb up the rankings. He led after a blistering 61 in Scotland, contended in Ireland, was thereabouts in the Netherlands and Italy, and then did little wrong in the two Chinese events.
As with Jones, this should prove more suitable as he’s won on a links course at a lower level and was an excellent 17th at Royal County Down last year, that in a very strong DP World Tour event. He also chased home powerhouses Jesper Svensson and Brandon Stone at an exposed course in the Netherlands a couple of seasons ago.
Later that year, Enefer made his Grand Final debut and was last but one after an opening 81 in brutal weather, but the fact he climbed to 22nd confirms that he played nicely thereafter. His second-round score was bettered by only six players and just two went lower on Sunday, so there’s evidence of a liking for Alcanada hidden beneath the surface.
There’s also evidence of this which is hidden deeper still: he won a four-round event here back in the spring of 2023, one which came with the reward of half a dozen Challenge Tour invites. It’s from those that he first gained full status at this level, then went on to secure DP World Tour status for the first time.
He’s going to need something like a top-five finish to graduate to the DP World Tour again but I reckon he’s capable of doing so at a course he knows full well he can play.
Posted at 1300 GMT on 28/10/25
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