TD Regression Alert! Fantasy Players About to Explode in Week 6

It’s Week 6, and the Draft Sharks crew is digging into touchdown regression. Which teams are due for a scoring spike, and which players could benefit most? Matt Schauf and Jared Smola of DraftSharks.com kick things off by breaking down the data behind expected TDs, then dive into key names like Brian Thomas Jr., Rashee Rice, and Jaylen Warren who might be ready to pop. We’re also talking about Cincinnati’s Joe Flacco hail mary, Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s breakthrough, Rico Dowdle, whether you need to start Darren Waller and much more.

TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:36 Looking for positive TD regression
3:17 More TD passes for Jaguars?
6:30 More fantasy points for Patrick Mahomes?
9:48 Why to get excited about Drake Maye
11:50 Christian McCaffrey
13:08 More rushing TDs for the Rams?
14:20 Buy Jaylen Warren?
16:36 Joe Flacco time!
21:28 Jacory Croskey-Merritt
24:11 Rico Dowdle
26:03 Hassan Haskins or Kimani Vidal?
27:49 Michael Carter
30:08 Jakobi Meyers
32:13 Terry McLaurin
34:09 Is Calvin Ridley back?
36:12 Darren Waller a must start?

EPISODE LINKS
Week 6 Rankings: https://www.draftsharks.com/weekly-rankings
Week 6 Start Sit: https://www.draftsharks.com/article/fantasy-football-start-sit-week-6
Week 6 Trade Targets: https://www.draftsharks.com/article/fantasy-football-trade-targets-week-6
Week 6 Matchups That Matter: https://www.draftsharks.com/article/fantasy-football-matchups-that-matter-week-6
Week 6 Expert Moves: https://www.draftsharks.com/article/best-week-6-moves-from-our-experts–troy-franklin-s-breakout-week-is-here
TD Regression Watch: https://www.draftsharks.com/article/td-regression-watch
Week 5 Film Review: https://www.draftsharks.com/article/don-t-trust-the-box-score–ashton-jeanty-is-dominating-in-spite-of-his-team

Is Joe Flacco about to save the Bengals offense? And are we finally on the verge of a big Brian Thomas Jr. bounceback? It’s week six and we’re talking all that, plus Bill Crosky merit, Rico D, Terry McLaren’s return, and more. An allnew Draft Sharks podcast starts right now. Hey, it’s the Draft Sharks. Matt Sha and Jared Small of DraftSharks.com here to help you set your lineups and improve your teams for week six of the fantasy football season and let’s hope beyond. Jared, we’re going to start this episode talking about touchdown regression. Instead of your usual usage takeaways article, we got to dig into TD totals this week. So, why don’t you just start by telling us what you went in looking for when you were working on this? any general observations and then we can get into some like individual team results and perhaps some players that that might be in for a production boost. Yeah, this was just an idea that popped into my head as I was working through uh projections on Monday. What made me think about it is looking at the 49ers who have scored all 10 of their offensive touchdowns so far via the pass. So, you know, I want I’m always looking for ways to, you know, find like edges that maybe other people aren’t thinking about. And I think, you know, touchdowns is a good way to do that because we know they’re volatile from week to week, even from season to season. So what I did is I looked at how each offense has scored their touchdown so far in terms of via the pass or via the run. Historically we see this number be around 60 to 70% of touchdowns coming via the pass. And like 10 years ago that number was much higher from passing touchdowns. I think just in general the NFL is more of a passing league like you know in the 2015 2018 like that kind of that range. Things have shifted more towards the run lately. You know this year so far 63.6% 6% of touchdowns have come via the pass. And I think, you know, in general, we’d expect all offenses to kind of regress back towards that number. Now, not every offense is the same, of course. Think about the Chiefs offense versus the Eagles offense. We will obviously expect the Chiefs offense to score a higher percentage of their offensive touchdowns via the pass, where the Eagles will be a team that’s going to, you know, score more of their offensive touchdowns via the run. So what I did is I I just looked at how these teams have scored so far, percentage of touchdowns via the pass versus run, and then compared that to how they’re calling plays when they get near the end zone. So what’s their pass rate inside the 10 yard line? What’s their pass rate inside the 20 yardd line? And just tried to look for teams that just don’t make sense so far. You know, teams that are scoring a lot via the pass, but are actually running more near the end zone and vice versa. Just to find teams and players that I think we could expect to score more or fewer touchdowns going forward. And of course, the entire NFL season is really a small sample of data. It’s only 17 games. So, it’s possible for a team to have good luck or, you know, bad luck throughout the year. But the point here is we’re looking for outlier results, things that that might signal a team either um doing less of what has gotten it to where it is right now going forward or a team that’s set for just like better luck and is about to deliver more touchdowns. So, let’s go pass first. Um, what did you find as far as some teams that look like they’re on the verge of throwing more touchdown passes? Yeah, we’ll start with the Jags who should start throwing more touchdown passes. Now, the Jags in general have been a passle leaning offense this season. They’ve been particularly passing inside the 10 yard line. The the Jags are second in pass rate inside the 10 yardd line. They’re 18th in pass rate inside the 20 yardd line. So, kind of, you know, in the middle of the pack there, but despite that, they’re just 26th in their share of offensive touchdowns that have come via the pass. So, we would expect more passing touchdowns here. And Trevor Lawrence has had every opportunity to throw more passing touchdowns this season. He is fourth in the NFL in red zone pass attempts. He’s third in pass attempts inside the 10 yard line. He’s ninth in passes into the end zone, but he’s just tied for 19th in actual passing touchdowns so far. we’d expect more passing touchdowns. The issue here is that Trevor Lawrence, for whatever reason, and we could dig into that, has been a below average touchdown rate guy throughout his career. His career touchdown rate heading into the season was just 3.4%. That’s like almost a full percentage point below league average. And this year so far, it’s at 3.6%. So, like with Lawrence, to me, just how much do you believe in him as a player? Because the opportunity is there for him to to score more passing touchdowns going forward. Maybe that makes him a buy. Um, but again, we have a pretty long track record now of Lawrence kind of underwhelming in terms of touchdown production. Yeah, what I would say is I don’t believe that he’s going to be a great player at any point. I do think that he has the potential to be better than he has been to this point this season, especially when you add in that they’ve got a new coach this year. It’s reasonable for the offense to take a little time to figure things out, especially with, you know, not only a secondyear wide receiver being the number one, Brian Thomas, but also a rookie Travis Hunter trying to work into being the number two wide receiver while playing on defense. So, there are just a lot of different challenges here that make it sensible for the Jaguars to take a little bit of time to round into shape. But, they have lots of talent on offense. We don’t need Trevor Lawrence to be stellar to deliver fantasy points here. You know, I I think he’s more worth rostering now than he was a couple weeks ago. Like, I actually dropped him in my FFPC main event league last week just cuz I’d been holding him to be the backup for Jaylen Herz for my upcoming by-week. And I got to the point where I was like, I don’t really need him. I can pick up somebody else. I’m not sure Trevor Lawrence is going to be somebody I want to start that week. Now, I think he’s a little bit more like, all right, I I want to have him around. I think he can be a platoon guy with like Jordan Love or somebody else in that range. I don’t expect a huge uh leap forward in scoring. I think Brian Thomas Jr. is probably my I guess favorite impact guy from this touchdown data here. What do you think? Yeah, that that’s a good point. Um I’d throw Travis Hunter in there, too, who I think with Brett Strange on IR now, like the the Jag solution to that might be to use Travis Hunter more at wide receiver. He had I thought his best game as a receiver in that Chiefs game. Made the long catch downfield. So, he might be trending up as well. I’m with you. I don’t think we’re about to get some huge spike in Trevor Lawrence’s passing touchdowns. Of course, we can also see this stuff change. The Jags could be looking at the same these same numbers and say we should start running the ball more when we get inside the 10 yard line because Trevor Lawrence has not been good in that area so far. Who’s the next team that comes up on this list? I want to talk about the Chiefs who, you know, for as long as Patrick Mahomes has been the starter, they have been a team that has scored above average percentage of their touchdowns via the pass. So far this season, they are just 23rd in that metric in their percentage of touchdowns that have come via the pass. The the play calling has not changed. They are sixth in the NFL in pass rate inside the 10 yard line. They are second in pass rate inside the 20 yard line. Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in pass attempts inside the 10 yard line, but he’s just tied for ninth in actual touchdowns that have come from inside the 10 yard line. His passing touchdown rate 4.4%. Again, that’s like pretty much league average. And that’s like where he’s been the past couple seasons, but he has years where he’s been, you know, above 6% in terms of passing touchdown rate. So, I think Mahomes is in for some positive regression in terms of touchdowns. He’s about to get Rasheed Rice back from suspension. Xavier Worthy is healthy for now. To me, I think Mahomes is a is a nice buy right now. If you can make that happen, I think he could really have a big, you know, final twothirds of the season. I would agree in general except that his rushing touchdowns early in the season and recent success passing has him second depending on your u scoring format in QB scoring right now. So, it’s probably going to be tough to pry Patrick Mahomes from his current manager. But I mean, if there’s an opportunity, if there’s like a larger trade that includes, you know, swaps of quarterbacks, I’m certainly fine with bringing on Patrick Mahomes for the rest of the way. I think that this might ultimately be a spot where Rashi Rice is the biggest beneficiary. I think, you know, this is kind of the last shot really to to buy Rashi Rice. Now, you know, I say that relatively. He could come back in week seven, do nothing, and then leave the managers who held him for that long being like, “What the hell was I waiting for? time to get rid of this guy. So, there might be other opportunities going forward, but reasonably right now is your last best chance to try to buy Rashi Rice before he comes on the field and puts up numbers. And if you’re thinking that whatever team has Rice in your league has been holding this long, why would they give up now? You know, check it out. If that team’s sitting at two and three or one and four, it might just be desperate enough that it’s like, yeah, give me a decent offer and Rashi Rice is yours. The other interesting thing in looking at the Chief’s touchdowns here, Jared, you mentioned Mahomes throwing plenty of times in the red zone. He’s tied for the sixth most endzone attempts. Yet, we’ve got zero end zone targets for Travis Kelce so far. So, my first inclination was, “Oh, is this a bounceback coming for Travis Kelce, the fact that he hasn’t been targeted at all in the end zone so far?” Yeah. Makes me wonder if that’s another part of, you know, Travis Kelce is just right on the verge of his cliff or maybe like he’s he’s hanging off the cliff right now and holding onto a branch. Yeah, I think he’s hanging off the cliff and the fantasy production has remained okay so far because Rashid Rice has been out. I think if if you know Rice and Worthy stay healthy the rest of the way for as long as they’re healthy, Kelsey’s going to be the clear number three option in this passing game. So, he would not be a buy for me. I would still be trying to buy Rice. I think he I would bet on him being a top 10 fantasy wide receiver from week seven on. And I think Xavier Worthy could be a buy as well because of this touchdown thing, because of the fact that I do think he’ll still be the clear number two in the passing game. And to me, I think he’s looked good in these first two games back, but the production hasn’t been huge, so there could still be a chance to, you know, get him relatively cheap. Do we have more touchdown passes coming from the Patriots, too? Could be. I mean, there are a lot of reasons to be excited about Drake May. Um, I think he’s looked awesome. The fantasy production has been pretty solid so far. And yeah, I think we should get some more touchdowns from Drake May. The Patriots have been pretty balanced inside the 10 and 20 yardd lines. They’re 11th in the league in pass rate inside the 10 and 16th in pass rate inside the 20, but they’re 25th in percentage of offensive touchdowns to come via the pass. So, there should be some more coming there. Uh, you know, Drake M’s actually tied for fifth in the league in in passes inside the 10 yard line. He’s also tied for sixth in passes into the end zone. So, the opportunities have been there. He’s just tied for 16th right now in total passing touchdowns. I would expect him to finish higher than that. So, yeah, this is just another reason to be excited about Drake May. I’m not sure there’s a buying opportunity here, but if there is, I think Drake May could very easily be a top 10 fantasy quarterback the rest of the I’m also wondering if there’s much of a buying opportunity on any of the pass catchers here. I think my biggest inclination is that Hunter Henry will be okay. And it might be tougher to see that right now cuz he’s coming off a two straight two catch games. And and really he’s had two catches or fewer in three of his five so far. So he looks like the positive stuff is an outlier, but throughout his career, he’s been a good touchdown bet. He’s going to stay involved in the offense. You’re just going to have to deal with LOLs and targets, I think. Yeah, agreed. I mean, it’s probably too late to buy Steph Diggs, right? Coming off two big games. I think I I’m buying though him being like the clear number one target in that passing game and really potentially being a top 20 fantasy receiver the rest of the season because he looks good enough. Um Drake May looks awesome and again there’s not a ton of target competition there. So I think Steph Diggs is is legit. I would not be selling him. I do think Henry though still looks like the number two target in this passing game. And if we get more passing touchdowns, if May keeps playing this well, I I still like Henry as a weekly tight end one. There’s going to be volatility like there is with basically everyone at that position. But I think by the end of the season, we’re going to, you know, see Henry’s going to, you know, be there as a top 10 fantasy. And hey, maybe we’ll get a Kan Booty resurgence. Probably not. Um, on the other side, let’s look at some offenses likely to score more rushing touchdowns. I was interested to see that you had the 49ers here that you talked about Christian McCaffrey in the article. I actually thought about throwing out Christian McCaffrey as a buy this week. And then I was like, wait a second, he’s already leading everybody in scoring. I don’t think anybody who has Christian McAffrey is going to be willing to sell him. But we might be able to actually expect more fantasy points from him. Yeah. Again, the whole reason I came up with this idea is just looking at the 49ers and all 10 of their offensive touchdowns have come via the pass so far this season. Christian McAffrey does not have a rushing score yet and he’s still leading the position in fantasy points. He he does have three receiving scorers. So, it’s not like he, you know, hasn’t found the end zone yet, but the guy is going to score some rushing touchdowns. I’m pretty sure that he is fourth in the NFL in red zone carries. He’s third in carries inside the 10 yard line. and he’s sixth in expected rushing touchdown. So, the opportunity has been there. He just hasn’t gotten in the end zone yet. And I think that’s key cuz I I do I mean this receiving production cannot last. Like he’s on pace to like break every record for running backs in terms of like catches and targets. I think as the 49ers get some of their other weapons back. McCaffrey is going to lose some target share, but that should be offset by some rushing touchdowns actually happening going forward. Bold statement that Christian McCaffrey is not going to finish the season with zero touchdowns. But, you know, that’s the kind of stuff that we put out on this podcast. What’s another team that looks like it’s headed for more rushing scores? The Rams have been interesting so far. Um, you know, this team under Shawn McVey has almost always been above league average in terms of percentage of scores to come via the the ground via via the run. Um, you know, over 40% of their touchdowns have come via the run in six of McVeyy’s eight seasons as Rams head coach. This year, that number is at 21%. That’s 28th in the NFL. Now, we the Rams have tilted a bit more towards the pass near the end zone this season. They’re 13th in pass rate inside the 10 yard line and ninth in pass rate inside the 20 yardd line. I I think Devonte Adams has something to do with that. He has always been one of the best touchdown scorers in the league at his position. And of course, they have Pukanua as well. So, that makes sense. I I do still think though even if these rates hold, even if they continue to be, you know, pass leaning toward uh when they get near the end zone, more rushing touchdowns are coming for this team and that’s going to benefit Kairen Williams most. He still is this team’s clear goal lineback. He’s handled seven of the team’s 13 carries inside the 10 yard line, four of the seven carries inside the 5 yardd line. Um so I I think Kairen is a good bet for more rushing touchdowns going forward. And then the final team here is interesting to me because it’s got a running back returning. The Steelers are also on your list of teams that should be scoring more on the ground, which might seem kind of wacky since the last time we saw them, Kenneth Gainwell was scoring a lot more fantasy points than he had any business doing. Yeah, the Steelers so far are ninth in percent of passing touchdown percent of their touchdowns to come via the pass. And Aaron Rogers teams have typically been near the top of the league in that metric. But that’s because when they get near the end zone, Aaron Rogers throws the ball at, you know, well above average rate. That hasn’t been the case this year. The Steelers this year are 29th in pass rate inside the 10 yard line and 28th in pass rate inside the 20 yardd line. Rogers has just been very efficient when he has thrown inside the red zone into the end zone. His his, you know, touchdown rates in those territories are way above what we’d expect. So, I would bet on that efficiency declining. And if the Steelers pass run rate stays the same near the end zone that you’re going to get more rushing touchdowns. And where where those are going to go is a fair question. In the three games uh Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell have played together so far, Jaylen Warren’s been the clear guy near the end zone. He’s out carrying Kenneth Gainwell 12-2 inside the red zone and four to two inside the 5 yardd line. Now, the big question in Pittsburgh’s backfield now with Warren coming back is what the split’s going to look like because Kenneth Gainwell did have that really strong game against Minnesota before the by-week. So, that’s going to be uh one of the bigger things to to look at this week is, you know, what that split looks like in in the Steelers back. Yeah, we’ll certainly be watching that. But, I think that Gainwell game makes Jaylen Warren a potential buy this week ahead of his return because if we do get, you know, a return to him looking like the clear lead back in the back field, that opportunity is probably going to dry up by next week. So, I I’ I’d be giving that a look. not overpaying for Jaylen Warren because who knows for sure. Um but he’s an interesting guy on that front for me this week. Yep. Agree. And you could also stash Caleb Johnson off waivers somewhere if you got room and feel like it. Although we’ll see if he factors in at any point. Yeah, I’m not very optimistic. But yeah, I mean there are worse stashes you could make because he’s a rookie. We see these guys be better in the second half of the season. But there hasn’t been many uh signs from Caleb Johnson. Yeah, if you’re stashing Caleb Johnson, you’re hoping for injuries to his teammates. Uh, just don’t be too mean in your hopes for injuries to other people. Elsewhere in the AFC North, the Bengals traded for a savior this week. Joe Flacco is a new quarterback. Um, it’s weird to me for an NFL team to still look at Joe Flacco as an improvement for them. But I guess that’s what the Bengals decided this week after deciding that Jake Browning is not their answer anymore after relying on Jake Browning for the past several years as the backup to Joe Burrow. So are you adjusting your expectations, Jared, for any of these Bengals skilled players with the QB switch? Yeah, I’m a little more optimistic for the Bengals offense going forward. I mean on paper, Flaco does not look like an upgrade over Browning this season. Just look at the numbers Flaco is putting up in Cleveland. Like they they they weren’t good. watching Jake Browning the last few weeks, like I have to believe Flaco is going to be an upgrade. And the thing about Flaco, too, is I know he wasn’t good this year. But in 2024 with the Colts, he was pretty good. 65% completion rate, 7.1 yards per attempt. The year before that with the Browns, 2023, 60% completion rate, 7.9 yards per attempt. So like maybe Flacco’s just finally hit the wall and he’s he’s washed and totally worthless. There’s a chance, I think, that he’s, you know, closer to the guy we got the previous two seasons. the situation now in Cincinnati is much better than what he had in Cleveland. Now the O line is an issue in in uh Cincinnati still, but he has two really good wide receivers here. So I’m not saying Flaco is going to be a fantasy asset, but I think, you know, he’s going to boost the value on both Jamar Chase and Higgins. Higgins especially like Higgins was almost dead with Jake Browning. I I think Flaco could at least make Higgins someone that we’re putting in our lineups and feeling okay about at least is like a wide receiver three. I had somebody offer me Ricky Pieraw straight up for T. Higgins this morning and I jumped on it before anything changed, which is is certainly saying something for Persaw, but still also saying something about T. Higgins. I mean, I will allow for room that Joe Flacco is an improvement on Jake Browning, but I don’t believe it right now. I think this is going to be the exact same offense that we have seen since Joe Burrow went down because I don’t think Joe Flacco is that good anymore. The O line sucks. I mean, that’s the biggest issue. I I’m not saying Jake Browning is doing anything well, but there was something that made the Bengals think that he should still be their backup quarterback. He did start for that stretch in 2023 after Joe Burrow went down. Um, you know, they kept him the year beyond and into this year and didn’t bring in anybody else. I’m guessing that they looked around plenty and Joe Flacco was the best they could do on the trade market. And I give them some credit for not just standing pat and trying to do something in a division that’s more winnable than it should be given the injuries to all the other teams. So I guess we’ll see. I want to say in fairness to Jake Browning that even though he hasn’t been playing well, he’s he’s obviously not anybody’s best answer. He did step in produced fantasy-wise uh against the Jaguars in that game where Joe Burrow went down. Stunk against the Vikings and the Broncos who were two good defenses. then was productive last week against the Lions. Not good, but productive for fantasy purposes, and that’s what we care about here. I don’t really care about the Bengals winning or losing. I just want somebody that’s going to help the wide receivers score fantasy points. So, we got that in the two better matchups. We didn’t get it in the two bad matchups. And I guess we’ll see what happens with Joe Flacco. Tough start for him at the Packers in his first Bengals game. Yeah, as we talked about, it was a tough task for Browning against those three Ds he had to face in his three starts. And like you said, Matt, it’s there’s one more tough matchup here for the Bengals offense against Green Bay. It gets much easier after that, though. So, that’s another reason I think to to, you know, potentially be in on these Bengals wide receivers. I’m with you. I’d rather have Perol than Higgins when both guys are healthy. Pierall is still dealing with the injury. I think, you know, that might be one of the reasons that offer was sent your way. But I I do think Pier’s I I’m not that optimistic about Higgins. I don’t think he’s going to come anywhere close to, you know, where you drafted him at or his production where it would have been with Joe Burrow. I think Flaco can help only because, you know, can’t can’t get a whole lot worse than it had been with Brown. Yeah, and like you mentioned on the other side of that Packers matchup, we’ve got three much better spots, all home dates against the Steelers, Jets, and Bears ahead of the Bengals by. So, things should turn around to some degree for the offense. We’ll see how much better the quarterback can make it. And those positive matchups show up in the strength of schedule tool on draftsharks.com, which I’ve been using quite a bit this week, especially for the trade targets article that went up Thursday morning. We’ve made some nice upgrades to that page this year. I didn’t even realize how much different it is now versus the past few seasons, but it’s so much easier to use. It’s very easy to read, and we’re getting to the point in this season where we’ve got enough data behind us to start really reading and weighing the upcoming matchups. And pretty soon, it’s going to be the time of the season where we really want to try to play for making the playoffs and then setting up our rosters to win in the playoffs by looking ahead at those matchups. So, I recommend checking out the strength of schedule pages for whatever position you’re looking to populate. Right now, we’re going to move on to running back Jared. And one guy who’s got a positive RB schedule coming up is Jakori Kroski Merritt or Bill to his friends. We know the fantasy numbers were positive last week. What did the usage tell us in that game? Yeah, this one just makes me happy to see a running back who was clearly his team’s best runner both by the eye test or by the numbers like actually get rewarded and the team just like pretty much turning the backfield over to JCM which is what we got in that game last week. Crossame got the start in that game which immediately was a sign that this was going to be different because he that had not happened. They’d been using you know Austin Eckler early in the season as the quote unquote starter and then Chris Rodriguez the previous couple weeks. So JCM gets the start, plays a season high 50% of the snaps, gets a season high 14 carries, season high 50% of the rush attempts. Um, also ran a season high 38% of the routes, two targets in that game. He has two targets in back-to-back games. He is not going to be a huge producer in the passing game this season, but if he can give us like just something where he’s not like a total zero in the passing game, that’s going to be a big help both for his floor and ceiling. So I mean, we’ll we’ll see where this goes. I I think this is just going to be what it is, though. I think Krosky Merritt’s going to like, you know, be in the Brian Robinson role from last year where he’s getting most of the rushing work. He’s still going to lose the passing down staffs to McNichols and Chris Rodriguez probably, you know, spells him from time to time, but I think you’re going to get 12 15 carries per game out of Krosky Merritt. He still looks awesome. This is, you know, well-designed running game. And as you alluded to, Matt, Chicago this week and Dallas next week, those are both bottom eight running back defenses. So, there’s a chance for JCM to really, you know, build some momentum. And even beyond that, it’s the league’s best remaining RB schedule according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed. That includes strong scoring matchups the next three weeks. So, you’ll find old Bill in our uh top 20 across formats this week in our running back rankings. I would expect that he’ll remain in that range over at least the next three. And, you know, we’ll keep watching the usage, adjust as needed, and then kind of reassess from there. Shane also dug into Krosky Merritt in his film review this week. Points out that he’s still a raw player, especially noticeably in the passing game, and that’s probably going to keep that production in that area limited. But, you know, it helps that he’s in a back field that doesn’t have anybody else that you’re like, “Oh, we got to get this guy on the field.” Yeah. Again, I mean, I I don’t think you’re going to get big rushing production. That’s a problem when they fall behind in games, but this is a good football team. They’re going to be playing with uh plenty of leads. And again, I do think JCM, it looks at this point that like they’re at least willing to throw him the ball when he’s like the check out, right? Like he’s not like again like a total zero in the passing game. Yeah. As long as as long as they’re not like, “Oh crap, we got to pass. Get that guy off the field.” I I guess we’ll take it. Rico Dael was never coming off the field last week with Chuba Hubard out and he was rarely tackled by the Dolphins in that game. Jared, still no Chuba Hubard at Wednesday’s practice this week. We don’t know about Thursday as of this recording, but it’s certainly not trending as though Hubard’s going to be ready to play this week. It looks like another Rico Dattle game, right? Yeah, if if Hubard’s out, and I’m assuming he’s going to be because he had a setback with the calf. Usually when you guys have setbacks, they miss a lot longer than they did the first time. Um, so and if if Hubard’s out, like Dowel is a mustar. He’s a, you know, top 15 running back and that might even be selling him short just with how good he played last week and this matchup against Dallas on Sunday. Revenge game for Rico Dow too if you’re into that kind of stuff. Not that he needs any, you know, a bigger boost because the matchup is already good enough. the the question here is what happens when Hubard comes back and it was interesting that Dave Canalis was asked that question earlier this week and he he didn’t commit to Hubard as his guy which I think is telling like you know usually you you’ll see coaches give the benefit of the doubt to an injured player and you know say you know he he’s still our guy and maybe that ends up not being the case but at least they they say that Canalis didn’t even say that. So, I think um when Hubard’s back, you’re going to see this be much closer to a 50-50 split. Like maybe Hubard gets a chance to be be like the 1A out of the gate and then they sort of adjust based on how these guys are playing. But Rico D has just been better than Hubard this season and basically any metric you look at rush yards over expected per attempt, yards after contact per attempt. Dowel’s beating Hubard in all that stuff. So, I would not be surprised if Dowel even outscores Hubard the rest of the way when they’re both on the field together. I think I think that’s possible. Yeah, we’ll have to keep an eye on that. If I were the coach, I certainly wouldn’t give definitive statements at at points where nothing is certain either. So, I can’t fault him for that. We’ll see where the usage goes. But I’ve never been huge on Chuba Hubard, so I certainly won’t say that it’s uh impossible for Rico Da to outscore him. Part of Dowel’s production last week though was also that matchup with Miami. And that is what is now facing the Chargers backfield that has no Nea Harris. It has no Omari Hampton. It does have Kimani Vidal or Vidal I think it is and Hassan Haskins. So, however you pronounce it, have we gotten any signal from the team yet as far as what to expect from the work split? No, we haven’t. Um, the the only change here since we talked about it on Tuesday’s Waver Warriory show was they added Nahhem Hines to the backfield and Hines spent training camp with the Chargers this summer. So, he knows the offense and they’re bringing them back here. It’s like to me if that’s the only move they’re going to make in this backfield and it looks like that that’s it at least for this week. Um that’s good news for Haskins and Vidal because Nheem Hines is 29. He turns 29 next week. He hasn’t played a regular season snap since he suffered that knee injury in a in a jet ski accident in 2023. So it’s been like two years since he’s played an NFL game. Even when he’s healthy, he’s a you know undersized change of pace back. So I’d be surprised if Hines plays a big role this week. It’s going to be Haskins. It’s going to be Vidal. No clues from the beat writers or the coaching staff of what the backfield split’s going to look like. Maybe we’ll get something on like, you know, Saturday or Sunday morning. I’m still leaning Haskins now is the slightly better bet this week. Um, but I would not be shocked if it went either way. I do think it’s going to be pretty close to a 50-50 split. Either way, though, I’m going Vidal unless we get some word Sunday morning of work significantly favoring Haskins. I think when it’s uncertain like that, I’m chasing upside and to me, he’s the the higher upside play between those guys. Yeah. Again, I I don’t think either guy’s good, but I think this matchup against Miami, and of course, the Chargers have all the O line injuries, too, which isn’t going to help, but just this match up against Miami is what makes this situation relevant and, you know, we’ll we’ll have to kind of reassess as we head into week seven. Michael Carter stepped up in a backfield that suffered two injuries last week, led the Cardinals backfield in that game. Of course, he should obviously be picked up everywhere by this point. Should be a good bet to control the backfield work again, but Carter also sits just 29th in our PPR rankings at running back this week because he was basically inefficient in a stellar matchup with Tennessee last week, right Jared? Yeah. And uh you when I saw this in the notes for the show, I kind of went back and looked at our projections for Carter just to make sure they were right because it does feel like RB29 is is kind of low. I think we have it right though. Again, like you said, Matt, last week was just an ideal spot for Michael Carter and this ground game. The Cardinals, despite ended up losing that game, they had the lead throughout the game. They ran 64 plays, which is well above league average. It’s just a much tougher spot for the Cardinals this week. They’re seven-point road underdogs to the Colts. They have a 20point implied total. That’s eighth lowest of the week. The big the big question here too is Kyler Murray because he did not practice on Wednesday with a foot injury that he suffered last week was able to return to that game, but I think he’s not allowed to play this week, which is which would obviously bring the offense down if he’s not able to play on Sunday. So, I’m kind I’m treating Carter as like a fine RB3 this week. He could definitely outscore that because of the role he played um last week, but just the inefficiency, the matchup here, just the spot in general, I don’t think there’s a ton of upset here. I think he’s more of like a a floor play just based on the touches. Yeah, I agree. He made it into our trade targets article this week and I’d probably try to sell him pretty hard. He’s going to be a difficult guy to sell one for one and I think the best way to apply him. I mentioned it in the article. I think the best way to try to sell him this week would be to pair him with another player who’s, you know, at least decent and and preferably good and then target an upgrade type from somebody else’s roster plus, you know, some weakling from their bench. So, get that pair from them. uh send your duo that way and then even if Carter works out, if he if he puts forth helpful production over the next few weeks, you’ve at least gotten the upgrade, you’ve got the best player that was involved in that deal. I think that’s the way to treat Carter this week if you find those opportunities. Yeah, I like that. Um again, I think he’s like fine if you if you’re desperate, but I just I don’t think he’s going to be a differencemaker in fantasy lineups. Yeah, and as you mentioned, worst matchup this week, even worse matchup against the Packers next week, then we’ve got the buy. So, uh try to sell Carter if you can. Jacobe Meyers was a buy in our trade targets not that long ago. It was actually just last week. Jared, did last week’s result already change that? I think it has to. I mean, I I was so sure was going to have a big game last week with with no Brock Bowers in a really nice matchup against the Colts and it it didn’t happen for him. Um, you know, since his strong week one, his PPR finishes have gone 33rd, 40th, 54th, and 56th. Um, you know, he still has a 23% target share over that four game stretch. He has had two lower target share games among his last three, 16 and 17%. To me, like this passing game is just broken, right? We’ve talked about Gino Smith not playing well. I almost think not having Bowers might be bad news for Jacobe Myers. He’s just getting more defensive attention and you know, Gino’s not not finding him. Um, another fine match up this week against Tennessee. He’s still in like the wide receiver three mix in our rankings. Again, the target share in general has still been there. So, he’s not he’s on a must-sit, but I’m like, you I’m no longer as confident as we should be in Meyers with Brock Bowers out of the line. Yeah. A week ago, I felt pretty comfortable going ahead and buying Jacobe Meyers because of the target share to that point. Figuring that he was bound to score at least a couple touchdowns at some point. I’m not sure if Juno Smith’s going to throw more touchdown passes this year. He’s working on four straight bad weeks. And obviously, I’m exaggerating on the no touchdowns part, but I was not expecting the quarterback to play as poorly as he has been ever since. looking pretty good at New England in week one. So that certainly makes it a lot tougher to chase Meyers. I wouldn’t call him a buy right now. I do recap the past two weeks picks in that trade targets article. I mentioned in there Meyers is a hold as opposed to a buy for me at this point. 28th in our PPR rankings. So I think he’s still okay. If the Raiders are going to rebound at all, and obviously they’re going to be trying to, then he’s going to have to be a key part of the passing portion of that. We also will probably see them try to run as much as they can against that soft Tennessee defense. Yeah, they are implied for like 24 points this week. So, um, you know, there there’s some hope that this offense can actually put some points on the board. Maybe Myers can be a part of Yeah, I hope that this time next week I’m like, “All right, I was overreacting to Jacobe Myers last week.” Hope so. Terry McLaren missed the past two games, but it looks like he’s on track to finally return for this one. Right, Jared? Yeah. Uh, head coach Dan Quinn said he was optimistic on I believe it was Monday. McLaren reportedly didn’t practice on Wednesday, which was like an unofficial practice because Washington plays on on Monday night this week. So, we’ll see on Thursday afternoon if he um practices. I think he’s he’s still up in the air for this week. McLaren to me will be like a riskreward wide receiver three if he ends up playing this week because he is coming off the extended absence with a quad injury. But, this match up against the Bears is awesome. Uh the the commanders are implied for 27 points. That’s one of the highest uh totals of the week. So, I think you want to be starting commanders in general. Obviously includes Debo Samuel, who has just been awesome so far this season. 26% target share. He’s uh wide receiver seven in PPR points. so far, regardless of McLaren status, I think Debo should should be in fantasy lineups. Yeah, and that Chicago matchup is deceptive right now because it’s negative by our adjusted fantasy points allowed, but they’re they’re just 20th and pass DVOA. They’re still missing their lead corner, Jaylen Johnson, for a while. So, I I agree it should be a good spot for the pass offense. The longer week until the Monday game is good for McLaren. He gets a little bit more time to get ready, but it might be bad for us in terms of deciding whether to start him. We’re going to have to watch his participation on the official practice days and then hope that we get a clear signal on his readiness ahead of all of those Sunday games. Otherwise, it’s going to end up being personal decisions as opposed to, you know, projections on whether to put him into week six lineups. Yeah, I mean, the floor is scary there cuz, right, he was already off to a slow start off the hold out. Now he’s coming off an injury. So, scary floor. Upsides there. Um, I the Bears are 21st in those uh pass defense power rankings I’ve been putting together that are using, you know, a few different metrics. I think that that’s a much better um indication of what they are as a matchup than that fantasy points allowed number so far. Make sure you stay tuned to our Shark Bites fantasy news section on draft sharks.com. We’ll have all the updates you need, all the stuff that we hear about Terry McLaren leading up to that game. Next is Calvin Ridley back, Jared, maybe. Um I would I would definitely like to see it another week before using him in a fantasy lineup. I I will say that last week was easily the best he’s looked so far this season. the production obviously followed. Um the the Pro Football Focus receiving grades would agree. Uh Ridley set a a season high in receiving grade last week. He was actually 13th among all wide receivers on the week. So again, I I’d like to see it another week since he was so bad, you know, the first four games this season. But I could see Cam Ward kind of taking a step forward from here. I I think he’s looked better than his numbers would suggest so far. I know uh Dan Dan Orlowski thinks the same. He was tweeting about it earlier this week that, you know, Ward’s doing a lot of good stuff. the situation’s just been so bad. The matchups have been bad. They get Vegas this week. Uh, you know, Vegas is 19th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Not a scary pass defense. So, again, I think um I would prefer to to sit really this week if I if I could, but you know, with two teams on by and injuries at the position, I think, you know, Ridley could make sense as a wide receiver three or flex. It’s a spot where you can take a shot on him if you want. He did still catch just five of his 10 targets in that game against Arizona when you know Tennessee being in desperation mode helped. I don’t want to say that that’s when all of Ridley’s production happened because it was spread out throughout the game. But we still we still got Cam Ward completing just 54% of his passes in that game. That was the first time this season that he has reached six yards per attempt for a game and it was still 6.8 for the whole contest. on the year. We’ve got a 44% catch rate for Ridley, 35% receiving success rate. Both easily career lows for him. So, I agree. I would I would not want to use Ridley this week. I could certainly be wrong. It’s a fine spot and it could wind up being a good week for him. Maybe we finally get an actual good-looking Cam Ward game. Um, we’ll see. I I would rather keep Ridley in wide receiver four territory for now and hope that I have better options. Yeah, it’s fair. Uh they they might get JC Leam back this week who’s you know a tackle that’s been out all season for them. That would definitely help the O line which has been I think the biggest problem for that offense so far. Is Darren Waller a must start already after two games with the Dolphins? Yeah I think I think so. I think he’s like a top 12 fantasy tight end at this point which is crazy to say but like he just watching the Dolphins games like he is clearly the maybe not the number two maybe the number three behind Jaylen Wadd Devon Han but I think Waller’s like right there with Han in terms of target share the rest of the way. I think most importantly, we talked last week about, you know, Waller doing that damage against the Jets on limited playing time. That playing time got a big boost last week. He was up to a 68% route rate. I think that can even grow from here now. You know, he basically doubled his playing time from his first game to his second. I think he could get another boost this week. Um, tough matchup for Waller and really all these Dolphins against the Chargers. The Chargers are sixth in adjusted points allowed to tight ends, but you know, we just can’t be too picky at this position. And I think Waller’s a pretty good target bat and I think I think he’ll be a solid fancy play this year. He’s a solid 19th in target share among tight ends. That’s not amazing, but it’s good enough to put him in the range where we can start him uh in our 12 team leagues. And I mean, this team doesn’t have a whole lot of attractive red zone options. So, even on that lowish target share, he could easily be a preferred end zone target the rest of the way. Yeah, he leads all tight ends in end zone targets over the last two weeks and he’s seventh in red zone targets over that span. That’s a great point, man. I do think he’s going to be this team’s top target when they get near the end zone. I mean, you either have Darren Waller around to target him in the end zone or to pump up your RB R&B. Why not both? Why not both? You can find more about Darren Waller’s week six outlook in Jody Smith’s stardom situm article. You can find Shane’s latest film review on the site now. You can find that TD regression article from Jared that we discussed earlier in this show. You can find Kevin English’s notes on who has moved up or down the Dynasty rankings this week. And you can find our latest round of trade targets, plus all the tools that help you manage your team every week at DraftSharks. We strive to be your unfair advantage. 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