Red Bull’s Quiet Gamble That Could Change Everything

Red Bull is playing the long game in F1 and it might keep Max Verstappen with them.

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Laurent Mekies has Red Bull focusing on developing, not causing drama…or at least drama OFF-TRACK. The team is stacking targeted updates, front wing ones especially, to be ready in time for 2026 when it comes to the grind of developing future cars. I think that’s a pretty good idea, going all-in now and coping through the short-term issues before coming back strong in 2027.

With Max Verstappen fully engaged the factory has a clear yardstick. If Red Bull is using late season running as a live lab the gains could be rapid against Mercedes and others.

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Red Bull’s Quiet Plan That Could Change Everything

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Red Bull has changed its course. And of course, that is a good thing for everyone. Hey, other teams are being praised for taking bold strategic changes and leaps. So why shouldn’t Red Bull get some credit where it’s due? It might be enough to keep Max. Think RB23. This year, teams like Williams and Sala, they weren’t praised for shifting focus to next year as part of their comeback stories. I myself have been giving them praise. Yes, it’s not quite the same as to what Red Bull’s claiming they’re doing in that Red Bull aren’t halting development on the RV21 like with the FW47 from Williams and the C-45 of the Sala. Oh yeah, no, Red Bull’s not doing that at all. But what the common thread here is that they are thinking longterm, putting the foundations down for when their brand new wind tunnel comes online, meaning the data that they pour into it is actually accurate, which has not been the case for quite a while now. And this is all part of their recovery which I think seems to be across the board. Not only from a technical point of view with Laura Mcky’s in charge, a more engineering kind of the bod unlike Christian her but also from a reputational level. It also doesn’t hurt that McLaren Zack Brown is tied up in serious allegations linked to the ongoing Alex Pollo court case. I won’t go into detail regarding that since it is a developing matter, but it is a potential major own goal for McLaren and Zack Brown. you know, given the evidence that has been produced. But again, I shall save my thoughts until the court case is over. It helps that Rebel are free from the desperate fight of winning the constructors since, well, that’s over already. They’re also free from the really, really essential desire that they have to give Max a world title right now because Vstafen himself has quipped that the odds aren’t really likely that Red Bull haven’t done quite enough to be able to overhaul over 60 points in the championship. It’s basically 50/50 at this point. Max saying he either wins the World Championship or he doesn’t. And those kind of odds you can’t really dispute. It’s very black and white. He’s not wrong there. Whilst also not sounding arrogant. I mean, in fact, every single driver that still has a mathematical chance of winning the world title says their odds are 50/50. You could get George Russell saying, “Oh, blime me. The odds of me winning the world title are 50/50.” Now, I’m not saying that everything’s hunky dory at Red Bull. It’s not completely changed yet. There is still the ongoing saga of the Red Bull’s second seat and whether or not Yuki Cenoda will be the final sacrificial lamb of it all. As well as Lawson being a potential casualty, we could easily see a completely all new lineup over at Racing Balls with Isaac Hajar being promoted. Although it’s my own personal opinion, in order to maintain stability and continuity properly, they should really keep the drivers where they are and then decide what to do for 2027. But, you know, old habits die hard and all that. But it is kind of cathartic, even though I’m a McLaren fan, to see after all of the jabs from McLaren ever since the allegations of Christian Horner came out, that Red Bull are able to confidently and validly push back themselves, such as with the rumored pursuit of McLaren’s rising prospect, Alex Dunn. That says plenty in of itself, after Dunn extricated himself from their McLaren contract. Marco even hinting that Dunn drives like a Red Bull racer. That’s not subtle at all. So yeah, you might be asking why a McLaren fan such as myself is suddenly praising Red Bull like this. That is a fair question. Well, simply put, I just don’t really like what I’m seeing over at McLaren at the moment. I’ve been a fan of them for over a decade at this point. I came on board when Fernando Alonzo and actually Andrea Stella joined them. And the team right now is just a far cry from what they used to be. Things have really changed, man. Whereas Red Bull, what they’ve been doing the last couple of months, I really like what I’m seeing over there in that they are knuckling down instead of lashing out like they did in the Hornet era, protesting everything under the sun. You know, trying to take points away from the competitors through the FIA steward system instead of taking points away from teams on the track, beating them legitimately where even Toto Wolf just says, “Ah, yeah, well, there wasn’t really much we could do. Max was simply too good.” It’s a lot more sound than spending thousands of euros trying to prove that your competitors were playing dirty and then finding out, oh, actually they weren’t. I mean, just look at what happened with H when they tried to pull the same stunt in Austin a couple of years back with Perez and track limits and all just so Nico Hulenberg could actually score some points at what the team considers their home circuit. As we all know, that did not sit well with the F1 community. And the FIA even changed the rules as to when you could actually lodge a protest. It was down to what has in 2023. My main reason for approving Red Bull shift is down to Laurel Mecky’s attitude to the entire thing and he has a really good pragmatic modest stance about it. Him saying that a lot of stuff that we are now seeing on the car was actioned before he stepped into the role of team principal that it was initially green lit in the her era. But even with that admission, it’s down to his calls on race day that really mattered. And we saw that at his very first Grand Prix at Spar. at that race. His decision to fit the spare floor instead of hoarding it for Vstappen was the difference between Cenod making it into Q3 and him not making it into Q3. And it does make you feel that whatever happens to Cenoda with Red Bull that the conclusion in that matter would be at least slightly more fair and more grounded than it would have been had Christian Horner still been in the role. But here’s what I’m really curious about. The fact that the team is still producing upgrades more so than their rivals. Mechi saying himself that we know we brought more upgrades and we’ve still got more to come. So, good stuff. Granted, when you look at Race Fans handy chart of upgrades brought in since the Austrian Grand Prix, the amount isn’t too different than that of their competitors in the front running teams, but one thing is certain, they’ve got parts for every race, especially front wing patches to try and find extra pace. And of course, how that air interacts with that front wing then dictates what happens with the rest of the car. You’ve really got to make a first impression not only in life but with your aerodynamics. If you can get it right there, then you can unlock potential lap time everywhere else. Now, okay, I hold my hand up. I am not an aerodynamicist. And if you’re watching this and you are offay with aerodynamics. Do let me know if I’m actually on to something or if I’m just talking, you know, a lot of foam. Am I on the right track? But wait, L, aren’t all these constant upgrades to the 2025 car, which will become a museum piece in a few months time, damage their 2026 preparation? That is a valid concern, but I’m thinking not necessarily because I think what Red Bull is doing here is refining how they develop, not what they develop. That means they can trust the process instead of just bringing in endless parts and hoping they will actually work. That’s really forward-looking in my opinion. It’s not as simple as declaring it short-term greed and then expecting it to be really painful the following year. And what’s really intriguing here is that this endeavor is not a free lunch. This is burning valuable data currency that they will not get back. They are taking a very calculated risk here, dedicating it to 2025 instead of 2026. And sure, they have been afforded more than they’ve had in the last couple of years. They finished third in the constructors last year. And then when you had the mid-season reset this year, they were fourth, so they had a little bit more to play with. But Red Bull’s got plenty of money. There is no worry of them burning through a lot of cash or anything like that. They’re not in danger of breaching the cost cap or anything like that, but it’s more about them overplaying their temporal budget. And that’s why I think what Red Bull’s doing right now is kind of gutsy. It’s really, really ballsy. It’s a dand move that they’re realizing, hey, we’ve really got to sort out how we develop parts and that our correlation is really on point here. Or else, no matter what we do in 2026, it’ll be akin to brute forcing the problem and then hoping for the best. They can’t just buy their way out of a problem like Mercedes used to do and they would definitely be blind going into a brand new regulation cycle and they will feel the pain which is something that actually helmet Marco said they are doing the exact opposite of being blind. They can out actually see the light and I think what they’re doing right now in refining the process and bringing parts to every single Grand Prix is exactly what Mercedes did last year. And now we’ve reached the point where we all thought the Mercedes car was not going to be that great around Singapore. In the hands of George Russell, it turned out to be a dab hand better than any other car. As Toto Wolf said, they were bringing parts to every Grand Prix to make it better for Lewis Hamilton in their final year together to maybe understand the upgrade cycle underneath the cost cap. They couldn’t buy speed anymore like in the glory days. They learned that too well in 2022. So instead, they had to work on consistently delivering performance with what upgrades they could actually bring with what limited time and cost they could actually afford to it. And Mechi seems to be doing the same. From day one, Max has shown support that he is a lot happier than he was around the middle of the season at the British Grand Prix when we all thought, well, well, that’s it. He’s going to leave for 2026. He’s going to break his contract for sure. Now, though, it’s not nearly as certain. And it is making me think that even if Max doesn’t win the World Championship next year, as long as he’s in the hunt to maybe at least attempt a title bid, that will be enough that Red Bull are showing they’re working and that they’re at least doing something and that he is a part of it and that they trust him completely. And when Max is invested, the entire widget takes on a stapen edge. It feels like a complete glorious hole. And that might be enough to keep him within the Red Bull ecosphere. and Toto Wolf. No matter how much money he throws at him, he’ll be powerless to be able to tempt him. But hey, as we’ve seen, he’s got George Russell. Kimmy Antonelli is now bucked his ideas up after Toto admitted that him saying he was underwhelming was a kick up the backside that Kimmy needed. I mean, you know, just disparaging your own rookie. I mean, I I I wouldn’t personally agree with that style, Toto. And I don’t think even John Elen can potentially buy him out of a Red Bull contract. I really do think Vstappen is invested with what Red Bull are doing. His expectations becoming the team’s brand new yard stick, but there is a real risk to this because if it fails spectacularly next year and the Stafen does leave, then their barometer is gone. There will be a power vacuum regarding their drivers that the rookies and the younger drivers within the Red Bull ecosystem, the junior team will really have to try and fill. And you’re trying to get into the Stappen’s boots. that that that’s a really tall order and that might be the thing that completely kills the Red Bull idea. It’s all or nothing basically and I think Mecky’s knows that but this is the only way to ensure even a chance of Vstappen seeing out his contract to the full. And you know what? There’s a deeper irony here too because it just feels to me that what Rebel is experiencing right now is what they were experiencing in 2014. It’s on repeat. Back then, their Renault engine deficit forced them to rethink everything as well as balancing what resources they had going into the turbo hybrid era. Renault really dropping the ball. That reset then went into forging what we have now with Lstappen at the wheel. Now, 10 years later, it’s happening again. Only this time, they own the whole kitten kaboodleoodle because they are going to be a works operation with Red Bull power trains. They own everything. They control everything. So, what I think they’re doing right now is not as simple as saying, “Oh, they’re just doing this to keep Max happy.” No, no, no, no, no. This is about trying to build their future and hopefully Max sticks around for the entire duration to try and think about what they could potentially do going into 2027 with the RB23. The RB22 might be competitive, but I don’t think it is going to be the best car on the grid. If Red Bull can sort out their process right now, come the end of the year, it might be better than it was at the start of the year. It’s all about constant development because Red Bull power trains will be able to develop their power unit. And with the Stapen’s feedback and Ford’s technical knowhow and their resources, it could really come on song later in the cycle. Because if Red Bull weren’t doing this right now, if they just downed tools and thought about next year and not really paid much mind at all to the RB21 and fixing its problems, then I definitely think that the RB22 would have been an absolute hot mess. They wouldn’t have learned really much at all. And based on all of the computational issues they’ve had, they would be clueless as to what to do like they were at the beginning of the year and throughout most of 2024. The most important thing that Mechis is doing with the RB21 is to try and find ways to improve the correlation data and make sure that the simulations are actually saying and representing what they’re finding on track because that is a very major issue. Something that helmet Marco himself flagged to us all a few weeks ago. And because of that, they simply Max and Yuki not bothered relying on the data, the simulations, the simulator drivers. They’ve relied on their bums and what they are experiencing on the day to calibrate what they have for the race and qualifying. And as we’ve been able to see, it’s been a better strategy than just carrying on what they were doing before. Taking a dose of reality seems to be doing the job, at least in the short term. Meanwhile, behind the scenes, they are trying to improve their measuring stick because if they don’t do that, they could have an RB22, which is beautifully engineered, and it may be absolutely bulletproof, and yet it might still be wrong. It just might not be fast. It might be well put together, but it won’t be quick. And this is the kind of rationale that we’ve seen Red Bull and Max talk about during the Singapore Grand Prix weekend, even though Mechy’s himself admitted that it might come back to bite them at least a little bit next year. That being said, again, all of this work might mean that the RB22 could easily claw back that little bit faster had they simply just sat on their bums and just done nothing. you know, just suffering through the remainder of the year like Alpena doing, just treating all of these as just data gathering and not really doing much at all to at least try and be a little competitive with Versappen having no chance of winning the title at all. Whereas now, people are starting to believe and that’s fueling the Red Bull fires even more. And on top of that, for every team, 2026 is going to be primarily guesswork. It’s a roll of the dice as to who’s going to be on the front. As we know, cars will be smaller, they’ll be lighter, there’ll be active arrow, power units will ship with narrower tires to boot. These changes raise uncertainty about who lands on the right concept first. Pirelli suggesting, as I mentioned in a video a while back, the field spread could be massive, maybe up to 4 seconds or so. Yes, that’s not exactly going to be threatening the brooaching of the 107% rule, the ultimate embarrassment for any Grand Prix driver to fall outside of 107%. But it’s certainly going to mean that the days of the entire field being only a second between first and last, oh, that’s going to be done for at least a couple of years. There is going to be a very big gap between the fastest and the slowest. It’s going to be like what it was in 2019. Even Vstappen himself expects that even though it’s not necessarily just going to be an engine formula next year, Mercedes will be at the front and he expects them to be at the front. That that’s just a guarantor, which maybe in Max’s mind increases the value of just doing what they can right now to gain performance. Meaning that whatever kind of fight back they need to do next year, it’ll be done a little more efficiently and more reliably without Max having to do all the heavy lifting on the Friday. But what I did find very fascinating is that Max did not say Mercedes would be the best, only that they would be at the front, that they would be a frontr runner. And considering that even though Mercedes have had some really downward years the last couple or so, they have always still been seen as a frontr running team. So, as far as I’m concerned, Max’s take right there is stone cold. It’s like, duh. So, as far as I’m concerned, I think what Red Bull’s doing here is good risk management. at least try and go for a championship. And oh yeah, you might be wondering about that cost cap increasing to over $200 million. Is that going to be a good thing for all concerned? Well, we all thought that, but based on all the news that we’ve had recently, it’s a bit of a damn squib. It’s a bit of a nothing burger if you ask me. It just seems to be countering inflation, higher staff wages, the inclusion of Swissbased team members from Audi needing a better wage due to working regulations and laws over there, as was every other little bit of thing under the sun. It’s not going to be going back to the days where, hey, we can spend anything we want to hell with efficiency. No, it’s just countering in for the fact that things have gotten expensive and there’s a bit of global economic uncertainty going on here. So, Red Bull kind of getting some of that headaches and regulations out of the way with the existing cost cap. Yeah, this might be a bit of a smart play here and that will pay dividends when their wind tunnel comes online in the middle of next year. Yes, that wind tunnel. It is happening, folks. the one that should have been online by now but was delayed due to the location being changed. The original one now occupying the power trains plant. So it meant that with the local council, Red Bull had to go through the application process all over again. Now though the team has been catching up then 3 months ahead of schedule according to the reports back in January and they announced that it would come online for next year with the RB23 the 2027 car being the first one to be fully developed in the new facility. So, if Mechis is investing time into refining the process now, it’ll mean that when it comes time to initially calibrate the new wind tunnel, their data will be more sound from the get-go, that maybe the days of bad correlation in that Cold War relic that they’ve been using for all this time. It’ll be a thing of the past. And yes, I know they have been able to do wonders with that piece of technology that goes back several decades, but it feels like really now it should be put out to pasture. Its days are pretty much numbered. Hey, it’s had a good innings though. But I think what Red Bull is doing right now with Mecky’s in charge and Vstappen guiding them all is going to provide a boost in terms of their public image. Momentum is not merely a PR win or anything superficial. Stringing together legit wins and podiums under pressure, especially around Singapore where everyone thought that Red Bull was going to be terrible. It sharpens operations. It debugs race procedures and it keeps Max fully engaged as the anchor of the Red Bull Ford era. I mean, Ford thinks this themselves. That has been what Max has clamored for in recent times, to fix the car with your partners. Don’t just simply swap out the driver. You know, think about what the fundamental problem is with the car and that maybe both drivers can be competitive and that Max doesn’t have to do all the hard work in gaining constructor’s points. Yuki or whoever steps into the car next can maybe have their own fair share of points. Hopefully, Yuki can survive into 2026, but as of now, I have got no idea. We’ll find out after the Mexican Grand Prix weekend. It may depend on what feedback Cenoda can provide and whether Max thinks it’s worthwhile keeping him or not. I know in of itself it’s not a great idea that Max holds the cars in Yuki’s future, but as we’ve seen throughout the year, the stappen has not been dunking on Cenoda at all. He does value his presence. He said not that long ago he was Yuki no pancake. He thinks he’s a good driver. So he really might be in the stappen’s court and then Meckis will follow. But nevertheless, for the likes of Ford, I think the turnaround in the fan perception of Red Bull has only been seen as a good thing. Because not that long ago, during the bad times of Red Bull when they were legit the pariah of Formula 1, Ford’s commitment was being questioned. But now, I think it’s starting to change. And it all started in my mind with the video that Ford Performance put out, now Ford Racing, with Max Sappen and Chris Harris driving Ford cars. Yes, I know it was a publicity stunt using two car enthusiasts bait driving their own cars. But the vibe you got from them both did not seemed forced. It seemed real. It maybe reminded people that Max is legit a car guy. It’s subtle, but you can feel it. And that is PR gold. Because throughout all of that, it was really, really good to see Max genuinely excited to drive that Mustang GTD. Seriously, that’s such a good video. If you’ve not watched it already, really go watch it. Your perception of the stappen will change. So, what I think Red Bull is doing and what Ford is doing, I think it’s a rational bet. It’s not a reckless one. It’s not a desperate one at all. Because yes, it might mean that during the flyaway races before everyone gets back to Europe, Red Bull may not be the most competitive car out there, but it may mean that during their development cycle throughout the first season, they may continue to improve. Like how in 2022, we all thought that Mercedes were the only casualties of the new cycle. But Red Bull weren’t exactly firing on all cylinders either with the RB18 until the middle of the season when they managed to get the weight down and then they became the dominant force where Max won the title and Charlotte Clair faded away. But I really rate what Red Bull’s doing here. I think it’s a really good technical idea and it’s already paying dividends when it comes to people cheering Max on to maybe stick it to McLaren even if he doesn’t win the title. If he can at least use Lando Norris in the championship or just get in between whatever McLaren drivers end up first and second or maybe first and third that would be a to force in of itself and he is closing in just that little bit by every single race is going to make people more excited in the championship. I’m seeing it in my YouTube analytics. People are now a little bit more hype. Certainly a lot more hype than they were a month ago. When I got to sample the McLaren hospitality, I was there for Silverstone qualifying when Max took pole. And at Silverstone, there was no booing from the fans when he did take pole from Hamilton at all. There was applause, respect, not bad, especially what Max was afforded just 5 months previously during the F-175 live show where arguably he probably was worried for his own life. So Red Bull’s all-in stance is not as simple as saying they’re just doing this to keep Max sweet with one last sweet ride before crumbling into nothing. What they’re doing here is a fundamental reset in how they build cars. And right now it seems to be working and it may continue to work going into 2026. Whereas if they just simply given up and thought about next year completely, it might be their undoing. And this could be vital going into 2026. As said by Charlotte’s own manager, Nicholas Tot. He is expecting next year’s silly season to be the silliest season in a very long time. Maybe even giving 2022 a run for its money. But given what we’re finding out in the Brown Polo case, that whole saga with Pastri and Ricardo, that could easily grow an extra appendage, take on a whole new dimension than what we experienced at the time. But for now, Mechy’s and Red Bull going for gold, I think, is a very good idea. But hey, even if the crown slips, Max doesn’t win the title, I think Red Bull are destined to have a really decent payback next year. But here’s some foam for thought. What if the RB21 is triing 2026 parts already? You know, parts that won’t be significantly changed for next season or that are within the rules of 2025. I know that’s why I’ve got the foam of doubt out here, but it’s not the first time that we have seen current cars triing parts for next year. It just makes you wonder what Red Bull might be learning in plain sight. things that we cannot see underneath the bodywork. And it all brings me back to a quote said by Max not that long ago when asked if something has fundamentally changed within Red Bull. He gave a cheeky smile and said, “Yes, but nobody needs to know that.” You feel like, “Oh, what’s going on here then?” And I think Max really likes it. Curious. Curious indeed. So this plan of Mechy’s, I like it. We’re seeing the same feelood uptick at the senior team that we saw at the junior team over the course of last year. No, this doesn’t make me a Red Bull convert or anything, but it gives me confidence that this team has made a step in the right direction and Max may see out his contract after all. And I shall see you over in the next video here because I guarantee that you are curious about this particular topic. So, I’ll race you.