It’s the start of FedExCup Fall and the Dimers model has some value picks to bet on at the Procore Championship in Napa, CA this weekend so Greg and Dave analyze the best bets to make on The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast.
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All right, let’s talk golf for just a moment as we uh turn the calendar a little bit here in the golf world. The RDER Cup coming, a new PGA Tour season almost upon us. It is the Procore Championship that is first up on the schedule. So, take it away. How are we looking to bet the Procore Championship? Yeah, so this is going to be the first event of FedEx Cup fall. Um, for those that aren’t familiar, it’s a seven event stretch that will help decide uh who actually gets their PGA Tour card next year. Uh, we’re going to Napa, uh, Silverado Country Club. It’s par 72, 7,138 yards. Um, only the top 100 in FedEx Cup standings are now fully exempt for 2026. Uh, and 70 of those spots are locked up from those who played in the FedEx Cup championship. So, there are only 30 cards up for grabs. You probably will see some of the more deeper cut guys really playing aggressively, trying to get their spot. Not much to lose at this point. So, if you’re on the fringe, uh you might want to take a look at some guys who are competing for those spots down below. Um but for the sake of the dimers model, we’re just going to do a brief overlook of our favorites and some value that we have. Um so, we take a look at our top winners. Um, we’ll also do a deep dive into this tool on future um future podcasts for full tournaments. So, we’ll we’ll take you inside these tools uh with a demo, but here’s a look at our top 10 uh top 20 probabilities. Sorry, probabilities for a top 20 or top 10 guys. That’s a little confusing. Uh unsurprisingly, Scotty Sheffller at the top. Um I’m gonna have to cut this because these are the winners. Oh, it’s all right. We’ll uh I’ll edit that. Um so these are our top 10 win probabilities for the Procore Championship. Unsurprisingly led by Scotty Sheffler over 36% probability plus 225. That’s it’s value for the model, but that’s a really rough price to get him at. Um we’ve occasionally seen value on Sheffler a few times this year. We did bet on him a couple times, but usually at slightly better odds. Uh, you know, we got him at plus 500 at the PGA Championship. I think we were two and two betting on him to win. We generally avoided the really short plays. It’s kind of a tough spot to be profitable. He’s still competing against fields of 100 guys. Uh, these are just not great odds on someone even the best in the world at what he does. Um, so right behind that you have Russell Henley, 7.4% and plus,600. Uh, this is some pretty sweet value here. Henley’s fair odds would be just plus 1250. He’s been a very popular pick for the model this year, especially in uh placement value. He’s got double digit top 10 finishes, a pair of T2s, including most recently at the Tour Championship, which we just had. So, he’s in as good form as he could be. He’s fourth ranked golfer in the world, excluding the Liv uh rankings. the the one world or golf rings are a bit of a mess, but um he’s a very accurate driver and a really strong iron game. He’s got value to win. Um we’ll look at our placement, too, but he’s he’s a good ladder play at top five, top 10, and top 20 based on our models probabilities. Just below him in third, we have Ben Griffin. 5.6% probability to win at plus 2,800 odds on bet Rivers. Uh that would be fair at just about plus,700. Uh $10 better. That’s a $110 difference. This is a huge value. Uh he’s seventh in strokes gained total this whole year. He’s won twice plus a runner up. And in his last 15 tournaments, he’s uh or sorry, his last 12 tournaments, he’s finished top 15 10 times. So he’s really hot. He was a bit of a breakout this year. Um good value on a really talented golfer. also a guy with good ladder play potential at top 20, top 10, and top five as well. Uh I’m going to take a quick look here at our top 20 probabilities. Um you’re not going to see a huge different group of guys here, but you’ll see much different probabilities and different odds. Scotty Sheffler 90.6% to finish top 20 is comical. Uh but also the reality of the man. Uh, Russell Henley, as you can see, Russell Henley. Isn’t it crazy? Like that. I mean, it’s not like it should surprise us anymore, but no, it’s just wild. Yeah. Every time I watch the guy, uh, he’s doing something I can’t believe he he is doing in front of my very eyes. Um, so we’re not going to be betting on Scotty Sheffller at minus 800, but we will definitely be betting on Russell Henley, Ben Griffin, and Cameron Young, who all have over a 50% probability to finish top 20, which is notable. Um, but beyond that, Ben Griffin and Cameron Young are both priced at plus 100. Uh, but they’re pushing closer to 60% 57% for Young uh to finish top 20. That’s huge value. um this field is not very strong outside the top of it. So you know a lot of the European and uh Asian golfers, Canadian golfers, a lot of them are not on this or in this field. So they’re really competing with the the Rder Cup squad and some of those guys. So getting a top 20 as a guy projected for a top five finish is some pretty intriguing value. If you play all three of these guys together, uh you get a plus 552 parlay. You do have to be a little careful with ties as you can dead heat and lose some of your payout there. So if you don’t mind paying a little extra juice, you can look at the top 20 including ties market. Um, I usually look to look at those when I’m looking at top five, top 10 as it’s a much narrower window. Uh, you don’t want to lose too much on a dead heat when you have three guys split uh, you know, a fifth fifth spot. Um, so yeah, Procore Championship, lots of really good stuff on here. We’ll touch on on these events throughout uh throughout the weeks uh, each time one comes up and we’ll we’ll recap some of our big wins throughout the year uh, of these FedEx Cup fall events. Um, but yeah, Russell Henley, Ben Griffin, great picks to win here. And, uh, consider this top 20 parlay with Henley, Griffin, and Young at Silverado Country Club in Napa. I’m in. I love it. Look for the fire emojis whenever you’re looking through the
