Tom McKibbin can make a winning return to the DP World Tour by capturing the Irish Open, according to golf expert Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: Irish Open
3pts e.w. R Neergaard-Petersen at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
2pts e.w. Tom McKibbin at 30/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Matti Schmid at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Sean Crocker at 225/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Mikael Lindberg at 300/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Having selected his six wildcards on Monday, Ryder Cup captain Luke Donald could now do with a massive fortnight from his team in order to avoid the awkwardness of one of the also-rans winning a massive DP World Tour event.
There are fair reasons why the Irish Open and the BMW PGA Championship are left out of calculations, but it would still be difficult to justify the omission of say Marco Penge were he to capture either title. In fairness, it probably is only Penge who applies this week, but at Wentworth there will be other results Europe would like to avoid and that’s one of the things Donald can’t control as he prepares for the enormous task of winning in New York.
Thankfully, he’s got Rory McIlroy and two other members of the team batting for him at the K Club and this really is a course made for McIlroy in particular. Long enough and with that tree-lined definition he’s always enjoyed, the North allows McIlroy to attack four par-fives and reduce plenty of the testing par-fours to a wedge should he be at anything like his best off the tee, which he was when winning here nine years ago, as he was last time out.
And while his return in 2023 didn’t quite go to plan as he faded on Sunday, McIlroy was nursing a back problem at the time, his focus very much on being fit for Rome. Two years on and having just been a step below where he’d like to be in the 10 tournaments he’s played since winning the Masters, I think he’ll consider this a big fortnight, one with the same goal but none of the fitness concerns he had when trailing home behind Vincent Norrman.
Norrman has a similar game to McIlroy’s in that he’s long and pretty straight off the tee for one of such power, and driving it well will surely be vital this week. Every member of the top 15 did that last time they were at the K Club and those ranked first, second, third, fourth, fifth, seventh and eighth were all T12 or better, which Sami Valimaki (sixth) would surely have been but for one of the worst putting performances of his career.
With Shane Lowry and Tyrrell Hatton both below their best lately, McIlroy is a very fair price at 4/1. That pretty much exactly reflects his strike-rate on the DP World Tour over the past three years and all four of his victories during this period featured greater strength just below him in the betting, as did the Scottish Open where he was runner-up in July.
He does though arrive off a shoddy putting display and as someone who wants absolutely everything to appear lined up to be betting at short prices in this sport, I’ll chance McIlroy’s protege TOM MCKIBBIN upstaging him.
McKibbin and McIlroy shared a wonderful embrace after the final hole of the 2024 season after the former had narrowly earned himself PGA Tour status, which he later gave up by joining LIV Golf to sign for Jon Rahm’s team.
Financially, that decision has paid off as it was always going to, and last week he took his individual prize money past $5million after helping secure the team title. He played a key role in that, too, pairing with Caleb Surratt for a couple of pairs wins and then shooting 65 in the final, where all four scores count.
Only Surratt’s 64 and a blistering 62 from Bryson DeChambeau were lower among the 12 golfers taking part in that final and having struck the ball well without reward a week earlier, it seems McKibbin was again excellent off the tee, which he had been throughout the middle of summer.
Very much in the McIlroy mould in terms of skill set, McKibbin has definitely improved since finishing 39th here in 2023 and his DP World Tour efforts this year show third in Dubai and sixth in Singapore, with just a missed cut when in the spotlight at Al Hamra to hold against him.
Returning to the K Club, a venue he knows well, where he was runner-up on the adjacent Palmer South during his Challenge Tour days and played in the pro-am with McIlroy back in 2016, McKibbin looks a big threat at a nice price.
Should he win, perhaps we’ll be left wondering whether he did sacrifice the Ryder Cup when signing up to play with two of those team Europe members on the LIV Golf circuit. It feels very much a possibility and my sense is that while his form there is hard to quantify, he’s a better player than 33/1 says he is, one who is absolutely perfect for this test.
McKibbin’s sole DP World Tour victory to date came at Green Eagle, a big golf course where you simply have to be in control off the tee, and with plenty of rain in the forecast the K Club should play at its toughest. That’s more of a reason to anticipate a big performance from this big talent, one of the key threats to McIlroy.
Adrian Meronk is another returning LIV Golf player with the right game for this and I felt he did well in 2023 given the circumstances. The Pole had just been cruelly overlooked for a Ryder Cup pick and was the defending champion, two factors which made things very difficult, so we can mark up 23rd place at a course which definitely suits.
What I find harder to do is excuse a run of poor driving on the LIV circuit so while his last significant act was to beat Rahm in a singles match, soon after a couple of welcome top-10 finishes, I find it very hard to see him winning this with any of the off-the-tee performances he’s produced since April.
Let’s talk about Schmid
Preference then is for MATTI SCHMID, last seen finishing mid-pack in the St Jude Championship at Southwind, the first time he’s progressed to that stage of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Schmid got as close as he has so far to winning on the PGA Tour back in May, beaten only by a red-hot Ben Griffin in a tournament which saw Scottie Scheffler finish fourth, and while he did suffer a little in the weeks after that, he looked in good nick again as the season ended.
Long off the tee and having driven the ball beautifully throughout the middle of summer, Schmid finished a good seventh when returning to the DP World Tour for the BMW International Open, then produced a comparable level of form for 17th in the Scottish Open, where only one player in the field drove it better than he did.
What a week!
It was a tight finish, but overall a great tournament and a strong battle. Thank you all for the incredible support—it truly means a lot. Eyes forward now as we gear up for the Memorial this week. Let’s keep it going! 💪⛳️#CharlesSchwabChallenge #PGATour pic.twitter.com/8BuGZQBwBe
— Matti Schmid (@Matt_9977) May 26, 2025
The missing piece of the jigsaw was his approach play, which for some reason went missing for a month or so, but he ranked third last time, in high-class company, producing his best figures of the year. With his putting above average in four of his last five starts, the exception being in the Open, everything looks to be coming together nicely.
Schmid was down the field here two years ago but had been out of sorts, without a top-10 finish since January, and I’m certain it’s a good course for him. That feeling is strengthened by his 54-hole lead at Keene Trace the previous summer, because Norrman went on to win there and 2023 runner-up Hurly Long has been fourth at a course which always rewards big, strong driving.
Close to winning at Steyn City, one of the most power-dominated courses used on the DP World Tour in recent years, fourth at both Leopard Creek and Blair Atholl, ninth in the Dunhill Links and runner-up to Meronk in Spain when three high-class drivers finished first, second and third, Schmid looks built for the K Club.
He can show as much and become the latest player to take this effective drop in class and turn it into something special, which in his case would be a first professional win.
Angel Ayora very much fits the bill as a prodigious driver, something we saw last week when he brought the short par-fives at Crans to their knees. It’s a year to the week since his professional breakthrough and if the Spaniard can adapt to what could be foul conditions in Ireland, he can further enhance his reputation as a star in the making.
But RASMUS NEERGAARD-PETERSEN is playing to an exceptionally good standard and at a course which should be ideal, I think now is the time to strike.
Since flushing his way to 12th place in the US Open, the youngster has bagged four more top-20 finishes in five starts, the exception coming in Scotland where his long-game dipped just enough for his short-game to prove costly.
It says much about the quality of that long-game that Neergaard-Petersen was still above-average and that’s what he’s been off the tee in every start bar one this year, that being in Bahrain where he lost a paltry 0.026 strokes per round, therefore half a stroke in total, on his way to a missed cut.
With season’s-best approach play last week and his putter a bit better lately, he seems to be closing in on that breakthrough DP World Tour title and with cool, wet, windy conditions set to greet him in Ireland, backing a Scandinavian with two runner-up finishes in the wind this year makes plenty of appeal.
Neergaard-Petersen’s eighth last week ought to have been better as he four-putted the 11th hole on Sunday, and we are going to have to accept that he can have issues with that club. But we’re likely buying into another quality ball-striking week and, whereas a bit of short-game magic goes a long way in the Alps, this will be about quality ball-striking, I’m sure.
Never quite in the Ryder Cup conversation, he can demonstrate why so many people would go as far as expecting him to feature back here in Ireland in two years, in the process taking a huge step towards PGA Tour membership and the world’s top 50, which is absolutely where he’s heading.
Granted, McIlroy’s presence is why he’s a shade bigger than he has been in recent weeks, but we’re without five of the six players ahead of him in the betting last week plus another three who were right behind. I’m very happy to take 20/1 and bigger at a course I feel will suit him far more than Crans was ever likely to, and under conditions far more akin to those he grew up learning to deal with.
At the time of writing, Betfred, Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair all quote 25/1 with 10 places, while BoyleSports and bet365 are among those also paying out up to 10th in additional place markets. We’ll settle our tipping record up to eighth only given that’s the more generally available option.
Powerful duo worth backing
Richard Mansell and Dan Bradbury are two more flushers who caught the eye along with Todd Clements, who won that Challenge Tour event next door by six shots and returns with his game firing. Clements in particular is of some interest, having come on plenty since his close friend Dan Brown won in Germany, Sunday’s 62 further evidence of that.
Perhaps he’ll conjure some positive K Club vibes for a fast start but my outsiders are SEAN CROCKER and MIKAEL LINDBERG.
Hand on heart, Crocker is a bit of a gut selection. I just really like his game for this golf course as he’s a long, quality driver when firing, and his iron play is some of the best on the circuit, better than a season-long ranking of 38th which is held down two isolated displays.
Crocker comes here with form figures of MC-MC-MC-MC-MC but he was runner-up in the one event this year where quality, long driving was vital, one won by Penge, and for the most part his struggles since can be attributed to that unruly putter of his.
To that end, gaining 2.5 strokes over two rounds last week offers hope, particularly as last summer he produced a month-long burst of better putting which saw him finish 21st, third and 20th, a year after he’d managed a fortnight of it to finish second and 14th.
If he putts anything like as well as he did in Crans, where he was four-over through five holes in round one when off early in heavy fog, only to recover to one-under and miss the cut by one, then Crocker will be a factor here providing his typically reliable long-game is where we should expect it to be.
He’s been ninth in the Irish Open at the similar Mount Juliet and while his win came on a faux links when a freak putting week rendered the nature of the course pretty much irrelevant, most of his best efforts have been at courses where you can hit a lot of drivers, where scoring isn’t easy.
Palmer North does give players options but it is possible to be aggressive and reach for driver upon driver. I think it’ll suit the American, who pops up at big prices when the ideal course meets a putting spark. Here’s hoping those circumstances meet in Ireland.
Finally, Lindberg is massively overpriced at 200/1 plus and a bet at shorter than that having finished fourth, 27th and 13th over the past three weeks, the least impressive of those three all down to a slow start at the Belfry.
His raw power was much more useful in Denmark, where he was number one in strokes-gained off-the-tee, and with the rest of his game also looking solid it’s no wonder he’s started to produce results.
We’ve got to accept that he blew a golden chance to win on the HotelPlanner Tour last year but it’s encouraging that his improved form at that level came at this time of the season, as is the fact that he was totally out of form when 23rd here at the K Club in 2023.
Lindberg didn’t actually drive it well that week yet still scored, so with his main weapon singing again and conditions perhaps to suit, the powerful Swede was the first outsider on my list. I’m not surprised I wasn’t alone in that.
Posted at 1800 BST on 01/09/25
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