With no PGA Tour action this week, Ben Coley takes a look at the HotelPlanner Tour where Adri Arnaus and Anton Alberts appeal for the Dormy Open.
Golf betting tips: Dormy Open
2pts win Renato Paratore at 25/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
2pts win Adri Arnaus at 28/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Unibet)
1pt e.w. Anton Albers at 40/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Liam Nolan at 110/1 (Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Marc Warren at 110/1 (Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Chris Paisley at 250/1 (bet365, Betway 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
With no PGA Tour golf over the next fortnight, bookmakers have been swift to price up the HotelPlanner Tour event in Sweden and as ever, it’s a competitive betting heat.
JC Ritchie, an imperious winner in Germany last time, has understandably been put in as favourite, but he’s off a break and lacks experience in Scandinavia, where so often members of the home team pack out leaderboards.
We saw something along these lines last year, when Norway’s Andreas Halvorsen won in Denmark, Sweden’s Christofer Blomstrand won in Finland, and Joakim Lagergren struck for the actual home team in the Indoor Group Challenge, showcasing the value of familiarity and comfort at this low level.
This year, three of the four South African events went to South Africans, then Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen won in Denmark, Rocco Repetto Taylor in Spain, Max Steinlechner in Austria, and Daniel Young in Scotland. I’m even going to give two half-points to Renato Paratore’s two UAE wins, as he’s a longtime Dubai resident.
The trouble is, there aren’t as many good Scandinavian golfers on the HotelPlanner Tour this year as there have been in previous ones. In general it doesn’t look the strongest group, certainly not versus the 2024 class, and while Hugo Townsend and Tobias Jonsson are both promising, they look short in the betting for what they’ve achieved.
Townsend would be preferred of the two but along with Adam Wallin, a multiple NGL winner who was sent crashing back down to earth with an opening 80 in last week’s Dutch Futures, the home contingent have been kept on the short side. That extends to course members David Nyfjall and Anton Karlsson, too.
As for the course itself, we’re at Upsala GK, north of Stockholm. It’s very well-regarded in Sweden and has hosted a few small events, but nothing so far of this stature. Jesper Svensson, last year’s DP World Tour rookie of the year, is the star name attached to the club and I wonder if he’ll be knocking around in preparation for the Irish Open.
Whether it plays to his powerhouse strengths is hard to say. There are three reachable par-fives and a driveable par-four, but many of the shorter holes look to be positional in nature, with plenty of water lurking. I’d say driver won’t be used as often as players like Svensson would like.
That could just work out in favour of ADRI ARNAUS, a class act who is on the road to recovery.
Arnaus hasn’t caught fire in the way many of us would’ve expected since his relegation from the DP World Tour but he’s up to 41st in the Road to Mallorca now, having found form at the beginning of July. Five starts since then show five top-30s, a best of ninth last week, 12th in Scotland, and his most consistent body of work for a long time.
Buoyed by a strong finish in Finland and having taken a week off following three tournaments in a row, Arnaus looks a big threat now and if this does prove a less-than-driver course, that might help. He’s blessed with awesome power, but that driver of his can be wild and many of his best results have come at shorter courses.
This one is under 7,000 yards but with those four opportunities to attack, which I hope is an ideal combination for this big talent, who no doubt will be looking over at Crans, where he’s twice contended, and wondering what he’s doing down at this level having once been considered one of the brightest talents in Europe.
His progressive form plus a good effort on his sole previous Challenge Tour start in Sweden makes Arnaus appeal among a modest group behind Ritchie, but with few places on offer on this circuit, I’ll split stakes win-only between him and RENATO PARATORE.
A broadly similar player, Paratore is sixth on the Road to Mallorca thanks to those two wins in the UAE, and he ought to be higher having looked booked for second or third last week until an expensive final few holes.
Still, his form at this level looks robust, one bad opening round in Germany the only exception over the past six months, and I don’t mind him feeling a bit aggravated at how last week ended now that he returns to Sweden.
It was here that he bagged his first DP World Tour title, and it could be a good place to book his return, which he would seal were he to make it a hat-trick of wins. Given Ritchie’s lack of experience and extended break, I don’t see a more likely champion than the Italian who, still only 28, is a proven winner.
With no way to side with a Scandinavian, not at the prices quoted, the next best thing could be to head to the UK and Ireland and I’ll start with LIAM NOLAN.
A very good amateur who played in the 2023 Walker Cup and more than held his own, Nolan professional journey has so far been typical for one so inexperienced, in that he’s struggled for consistency.
But he has shown the enviable quality of being able to make the good weeks pay, with three top-five finishes from 16 starts this year, firstly in South Africa and later in Denmark, itself perhaps a handy pointer to this.
Another fallow period followed that but a return home to Ireland saw him battle on well for 19th and he was inside the top 10 at halfway last week, eventually finishing 36th after a poor Saturday.
A lofty 23rd on the Road to Mallorca owing to those three big performances, I’m happy chancing him again in Scandinavia, where there’s a bit of wind and rain in the forecast to make him feel right at home.
MARC WARREN stayed on strongly in that same Danish Golf Championship before back-to-back top-10 finishes at the beginning of June, and back down in this grade looks a big price at around 100s.
Warren made a strong start to the DP World Tour event in Denmark a couple of weeks ago and though eventually fading, that form translates very well to this sort of level. I don’t mind his missed cut at the Belfry, either, as he struck the ball well at a course where eight visits so far show five missed cuts and a best of 39th.
In fact, while this can be taken one of two ways, Warren’s second-round 71 was exceptional bar one hole. He made seven birdies together with a nine at the difficult eighth, after a poor approach shot from the fairway. On a day where the best score was 67, he played a lot of very good golf only for one swing to undo so much of it.
Still, I’ll reiterate that he’s never liked the Brabazon and he’ll surely have taken heart from a bogey-free, three-under back-nine which ended with a monster birdie putt at the 18th.
The Scot should be much more comfortable in Sweden, where he won the Scandinavian Masters almost 20 years ago and, more recently, was runner-up in the 2022 Scandinavian Mixed before a solid top-30 the year after. He’s won in Denmark, too, and was fourth there just two summers ago, these conditions often bringing out his best.
Bar some iffy chipping and the odd wayward shot he’s always had in the bag, Warren’s game has looked in good order and the 44-year-old, 21st on his latest HotelPlanner Tour start, is a surprisingly big price in a poor event.
Two more players appeal, starting with my favourite ‘fun’ bet of the week (fun is a matter of perspective, after all), CHRIS PAISLEY.
The reason I looked at Paisley was that Tommy Fleetwood won on Sunday. The pair took part in the Zurich Classic together several years ago, an act of generosity from Fleetwood, and were once England teammates who actually won the European Amateur Team Championship together here in Sweden.
I think there’s a very real chance that Paisley is inspired by Fleetwood’s hard-earned breakthrough and on closer inspection, his game looks in good enough shape for us to take that chance at huge odds. He was the halfway leader in Switzerland in June, seventh at halfway in Germany in July, and has made four cuts in six, missing two narrowly.
In fact, marginal missed cuts have been a bit of a theme this year but Paisley has started to produce those flashes of scoring more often, most notably the 63 which vaulted him into the Swiss Challenge lead, then rounds of 64 and 66 in Brno.
It was breezy in Switzerland when he struck form and he sounded happy with how things were progressing, telling the HotelPlanner Tour website: “I’m enjoying my golf again and I’ve been working really hard. It felt like some better golf was coming.”
Seeing Fleetwood finally break through on the PGA Tour might be that little spark he needs and I don’t mind taking that chance to small stakes, with exposed, breezy, not always pleasant conditions just fine for a player born close to the border with Scotland.
Jonathan Caldwell is another past winner in Sweden who has started to hint at a bit better, but he’s been trimmed early on and I’d be more inclined to chance James Morrison winning for the second time this season, albeit at a considerably shorter price.
He’s another with past form in Sweden and back-to-back missed cuts on the DP World Tour both came by a single shot, before a return to this grade saw him finish 16th last week. It looked like being better before he made a mess of the penultimate hole, and this short course should be fine for him.
But preference is for in-form ANTON ALBERS, a promising player who looks close to making his breakthrough.
This young German was the top-ranked amateur in his country for a time, partly because he won a big amateur event in Denmark, where he latter returned to dominate First Stage Q-School a couple of years ago.
His best HotelPlanner Tour finish so far was second place in this event during that same campaign so we’ve some evidence that he’s comfortable in this part of the world (the border with Denmark is just a couple of hours from his home), and he certainly arrives in good form.
Albers was in the mix throughout the Finnish Challenge and then again at halfway last week, meaning three times in his last six starts and in each of his last two he’s had a weekend tee-time in one of the final few groups.
It could be a matter of time before he sees it through and 33s and bigger is fair in a tournament missing five of the very best players on the circuit, lacking depth among the home contingent, and there for the taking.
Posted at 1700 BST on 26/08/25
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