Golf betting tips: Tour Championship final round
2pts win Scottie Scheffler at 6/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt e.w. Russell Henley at 6/1 (bet365, Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
In previous years, this would have been a tricky preview to write. In the days when there were two trophies up for grabs – the Tour Championship tournament itself and the overall season-long FedEx Cup – there were lots of permutations to be worked out.
And when the Starting Strokes concept was introduced, plenty of punters had backed the lowest overall 72-hole score rather than taking into account handicaps. The problem with all that as well as it being fiddly and a faff was that motivations would be different. Perhaps the leader was playing to protect his advantage and not going all out to shoot a low number.
Anyway, that problem has gone now. This year it’s just a straight sprint to the line and although it would seem vastly unfair if Scottie Scheffler isn’t crowned FedEx Cup winner after he led the season-long points list and had a huge advantage coming into this week, it makes it a better watching and betting spectacle.
And we can’t be too sorry for Scheffler given that he was chucked another $5million for holding the No.1 spot in the FedEx Cup rankings after last week’s BMW Championship. That added to the $10million he banked after topping the regular-season standings. Yep, he’s doing alright.
Of course, Scheffler will want to get the win his remarkable play in 2025 deserves and maybe he’s just toying with everyone: letting some others have a lead after 54 holes before he produces a huge Sunday charge. After a bogey-bogey-start yesterday, the Open champ hit back with six birdies for a 66 to end at 12-under but that still only leaves him in solo fifth and four shots back.
And yet. And yet. You’ll recall that he was four strokes in arrears last week before storming through and I’m just too tempted to let the idea of a repeat performance pass. SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER to win from here is 6/1 and I’m playing. That’s partly to do with his own brilliance but also a reflection of some doubts over the top four.
The two leaders at 16-under are Tommy Fleetwood and Patrick Cantlay. Fleetwood’s bid for a first win on American soil has been one of the stories of the summer and what a way to put that right if he were to win here. I’m sure it’ll happen for him at some point but we all thought that about Colin Montgomerie and a major.
Cantlay produced a hot finish with four birdies in the final five holes but that was Saturday. He’s had difficulty getting over the line on Sundays and hasn’t posted a PGA Tour win since 2022. One of them may get it done but I’m not attracted to either Fleetwood at 13/8 or Cantlay at 2/1.
I’d be more inclined to take the 6/1 about RUSSELL HENLEY even though he fell out of the lead on Saturday, dropping two shots back following a 69. Holing a 7-footer for birdie at the last was big though and Henley will draw on his win in another stellar event, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, back in March.
Fifth place belongs to US Ryder Cup skipper Keegan Bradley and chapeau to the captain after his best-of-the-day 63 in the third round. He’s three back, one ahead of Scheffler, but this would surely be too astonishing a story given that the showdown at Bethpage Black is only a month away. Perhaps yesterday was his last day of freedom. With the Ryder Cup picks announcement looming and whether he plays himself will likely take up too much headspace on Sunday.
Back to Scheffler then. Stats-wise, he ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green on Saturday but his putter let him down. I’d rather it be that way round to be honest as he’s had plenty of good days on the greens this summer and in fact all year (he ranks 16th for SG: Putting in 2025). If he holes a few early, the thundering hooves of the World No.1 could very well intimidate the leaders.
This was his own assessment of round three. “Felt like another frustrating day. I felt like I did some things well out there. I was just a little bit off on my reads most of the day. I hit some good putts that just didn’t fall. After the start I did a good job bouncing back and getting back into it.
“Overall I didn’t shoot myself out of the tournament, which making bogeys around this place can very easily do that. Proud of the turnaround, but man, I wish I could have gotten a little bit more out of the round.”
I don’t want to get into the realms of calling it a travesty if he doesn’t win the FedEx Cup but let’s just say it would be fitting if he did. Let’s put the main stake on Scheffler but also have an each-way play on Henley.
Posted at 0930 BST on 24/08/25
