Scottie Scheffler’s odds to win this week’s Tour Championship are historical in at least two ways: Opening at an astonishing +165 on BetMGM, they are the shortest odds of his PGA career, and the shortest odds of any player in a PGA event — excluding starting strokes — since Tiger Woods in 2009, according to ESPN Research. Woods was even-money to win the Tour Championship that year.
Another history-making implication: If Scheffler wins on Sunday (the odds suggest he has over a 37 percent chance of doing so), he will be the first player to repeat as the FedEx Cup champion since its inception in 2007.
In a distant second place, Rory McIlroy is currently listed at +850 to win, projecting a roughly 10 percent chance of the Masters champion clinching this title.
Let’s hit a couple of caveats: It’s easier to have shorter odds in a shorter field. With the field for the Tour Championship cut to just 30 players, Scheffler has a higher mathematical chance of winning.
By comparison, here are his shortest opening odds in a full-field event this year:
Memorial Tournament (field of 72): +300
CJ Cup Byron Nelson (field of 156): +300
Traveler’s (field of 72): +275
Charles Schwab Challenge (field of 135): +225
How does that compare to Woods’ legendary run? Compared to Scheffler’s current best-career odds, Woods had a far more dominant streak, lined on BetMGM at +150 to win the 2001 Masters with 93 players in the field and +200 to win the 2002 Masters with 88 players. He won both.
“We currently have Scheffler at 7/4 for the Tour Championship, but if this were a full field event, I would price him at 7/2,” Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk management at the Westgate SuperBook, told The Athletic. “Prices the likes we haven’t seen consistently since the good Tiger days.”
Last year, Scheffler opened at +110 odds to win the Tour Championship, but that was with starting strokes factored in, which gave him a considerable head start. This year, with the PGA scrapping that points advantage, Scheffler’s short odds are eye-popping.
But it doesn’t seem like the short odds are making bettors any more cautious about putting money on the guy. At BetMGM, Scheffler leads in the most betting tickets with 22.9 percent and betting handle with 64.1 percent. Maybe they read this piece by my colleague Neil Pane, who looked at which was the more profitable investment, Scheffler or the S&P 500? On the flip side, McIlroy has 10.8 percent of tickets and isn’t even in the top three on handle (total amount wagered), which goes to Scheffler, Luvdig Åberg (5.3 percent) and Tommy Fleetwood (4.6 percent).
Tour Championship odds
(Photo of Scottie Scheffler: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
