It’s time for the PGA Tour’s season finale. The top 30 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings will tee it up at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta for this week’s Tour Championship.
The format has changed for this season’s final tournament. In the previous six years, golfers would start a certain number of strokes under par based on where they sat in the standings heading into this week. This year, everyone starts on equal footing, whether you’re Scottie Scheffler as the No. 1 seed or Akshay Bhatia as the No. 30 seed. There is no net scoring; it’s simply the golfer who finishes with the lowest score crowned as the season’s champion.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Scottie Scheffler: The No. 1 golfer in the world has, without question, had the best season amongst all golfers, but can he close it out with a FedEx Cup? He won’t have the starting strokes advantage he had last season, but there’s a strong likelihood that it won’t hold him back.
Rory McIlroy: Rory McIlroy is the only golfer to win three FedEx Cups, in 2016, 2019 and 2022. He now has his green jacket after winning this year’s Masters, and he’s trying to break his own record by winning a fourth FedEx Cup.
I’m going to do my best to completely avoid Scheffler this week and instead bet the “Without Scottie Scheffler” market, which, if Scheffler wins, is a bet on which golfer will finish second.
Justin Thomas Winner w/o Scheffler +1600 via DraftKings
Justin Thomas has been in middling form of late, but you have to love his course history at East Lake Golf Club. He has never finished worse than ninth in gross score at East Lake in his career, including posting four top-four finishes. If he can round into form this week on a course that he’ll have plenty of confidence on, he could be in the conversation on the weekend.
J.J. Spaun Winner w/o Scheffler +1800 via DraftKings
J.J. Spaun is fourth on the PGA Tour in true total strokes gained over the past three months, behind only Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood, and Ben Griffin. Not only that, he pushed Justin Rose to a playoff at the FedEx St. Jude Championship two weeks ago. Despite losing in a playoff in two big events this year and winning the U.S. Open, bettors and oddsmakers still don’t seem to respect Spaun. I won’t make that mistake. I’ll take him in the winner without Scheffler market at 18-1.
Ben Griffin Winner w/o Scheffler +2200 via DraftKings
As I wrote above, Ben Griffin is third on the PGA Tour in true total strokes gained over the past three months. He also has two wins to his resume this season, as well as finishing runner-up to Scheffler at the Memorial Tournament. He has been in solid form of late, finishing T12 or better in his last three starts. Last week, he gained +1.58 strokes per round with his approach play, which is his best performance with his irons this season. That’s extremely promising heading to East Lake, which is primarily a second-shot golf course.
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