Episode #53 of The Inside Track is available NOW on all platforms!
This week, host Ben Kudla is joined by Matt Miller – author of A Bettor Way of Thinking, 2021 BCBC Handicapping Champion, multiple NHC qualifier, and seasoned tournament horseplayer – to handicap some marquee races at Woodbine and @DelMarRacing!
This week’s featured races:
🏆 G1 E. P. Taylor Stakes (Breeders’ Cup Win and You’re In) – Woodbine
🏆 $1M King’s Plate – Woodbine
🏆 G1 Del Mar Oaks – Del Mar
Tune in and check out their value plays in the 166th running of the $1M King’s Plate!
Welcome back everybody to another episode of the inside track, Echoas’s weekly handicap. podcast where we give our analysis, picks, and wagers for a couple of the weekend’s top races. I’m your host, Ben Kley, and I’m thrilled to welcome to the show for the first time, Matt Miller, author of A Better Way of Thinking, 2021 BCBC Handicapping Champion. Multiple NHC qualifier and veteran tournament horse player, who’s won place for prize money in over 100 tournaments already this year. Huge congrats. Matt joins us to share his picks and analysis for a pair of grade one races as well as the 166th running of the Kingsplate. So follow Matt on XMatt Miller X. So Matt, thank you so much for being here. We’ve uh seen you on so many racing podcasts and we got to do the HH last month together for the Diane. I just love what you bring to the table. So thank you so much for being on the show today. All right. So that’s humbling and really nice and I had a good time. Thank you. And yeah, hopefully this is well certainly it’s authentic and real on my part, but hopefully it’s a little different than what you get with a typical guest. We’ll see. Yeah. Oh, I I just love hear picking people’s brains and hearing how they they look at a race when they first see it and what they come up with. So, oh, I’m excited to get into your picks. Um, but last week was another fantastic week of summer racing. The Colonial Downs Festival of Racing Day headlining the Ashton last Saturday. Gio Koso scored his first graded stakes victory in the grade two secretariat. Hope you listen to the inside track last week. Charlene’s dream at Texas bred for the Ed Moger junior barn with gay towire in the grade 2 Beverly D just.76 seconds off the track record. Fort Washington won the grade 1 Arlington Million. Elador base punched his ticket to the Breeders Cup turf with his win and the grade one sword dancer at Saratoga last Saturday earning a 119 echo base speed figure, the highest of any horse North America last week. Laureland remained a perfect five for five to start her career winning that grade two Saratoga Oaks for Grand Motion. Then Desert Gate dominated that grade three Pasal Stakes by 8 and 3/4 lengths at Delmare. But today’s show be going over the Breeders Cup win in year 1 EP Taylor Stakes in the $1 million Kingsplate Stakes and Saturday’s big card at Woodbine along with our featured race of the week, the grade one Delmare Oaks. But before we dive into these fantastic races, the race to the NHC series of free handicapping contests for active Raceland subscribers continues this Saturday on horseplayers.com. The top two finishers each weekly feeder contest will make it to the Racelands final 50 contest in February. Top two finishers in that contest will earn a seat to NHC 2026, plus a travel voucher and a four night stay. And I think we should add a little little video. Oh god. Well, if uh if that doesn’t crank you up for tournament play, I don’t know what will. But learn more and sign up to play at echoase.com. Nice to see my buddy Dan Piaza in there. Just Oh, another Chicago guy. That’s right. Yeah, he was just the kindest guy. I was out there at NHC uh uh this past year. I saw him in in the lobby of the Horseshoe Casino after he won and we just were talking back and forth. But good good guy. Good guy. But uh bunch of Chicago boys, Matt Miller, myself and Dan Piaza. So there we go. It’s where where legends are born. But anyway, let’s dive into the grade one EP Taylor Stakes seventh race at Woodbine on Saturday. Breeders Cup winning. You’re in for the Philly and Mar turf. Mile and a quarter on the turf for Phillies and Mayers three-year-olds and up. Last year’s winner was full count Felicia by three and a half lengths over Moira at odds of seven to one for trainer Kevin Atar with Kazushi Kamira aboard. Full Count Felicia went on to run seventh in the BC Philly and mayor turf to none other than Moira. So field of seven in here competing for the line share of the 750,000 purse. Matt, who did you land on in here? So, I’m going to confess my handicapping methods have changed quite a bit over time. And having met all sorts of people that I can readily recognize are far better at this than I am, I’ve enlisted help from a couple friends. So, uh, the first was Paul Howerin over at HH. So, yes, I am cheating and looking over at his write up that he was kind enough to do for me. it he happens this happens to be for me I’m going to call it kind of a medium kind of play. Uh I mean he he starts off talking about she feels pretty how she’s going to be very tough to beat. She’s really done nothing wrong. The extra furong shouldn’t be that big of a deal. No knocks on her but and then he gets into uh the pick being Diamond Rain. Uh, it is funny that William Buick won a great race at Saratoga last year. We happened to bump into him at Johnabel Farm the next day and the hug he got from me almost took him out of race. So excited. So, I admit there’s still a bit of a personal thing with him. Uh, but you know, Paul talks about the quote unquote slump for Charlie Applebee, which I don’t really think is very real. and he’s talking about uh really from a value perspective and from an odds perspective, this horse having the potential to be good, excuse me, good value. And so for me, this is one I’m going to call it a medium play because I’m really going to be focused on the tote board. The other aspect of my handicapping and you can see my eyes shifting is that you know in addition to going to a couple of very trusted sources, one of those sources is Ecoin Edge. I’m a I’m definitely a user. It is, you know, I could say all sorts of different things, but for me it is almost like a cliffnotes version of handicapping. It’s a very quick way to help me identify spots. And this is absolutely the kind of race that I would in addition to taking a friend’s opinion take a look. And what I’m finding interesting is I’m looking at Ecoin Edge. Uh yeah, the pick is she Feels pretty. Uh but Ecoin Edge does its own morning line and it’s usually pretty darn good and it shows both Diamond Rain and She Feels Pretty at 6:00 to 5 in the morning line. And so tells me there’s potentially some value here on Diamond Rain. So, let’s see what the tote board looks like. I don’t have a magic number, but if you’re looking at five to two, three to one, something like that, if we get lucky, I’d feel terrific with that. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. I was wondering what that those morning lines. Obviously, we don’t have those out. We do have them for the king’s plate, but we don’t have have them for the EP Taylor. He was definitely on my list as or she was definitely on my list as well. Buick and Applebee are winning at 44% in all races at Woodbine, by the way, all time. Just like what? Right. And then obviously they’re here to win these Breeders Cup Challenge series last week with El Cadorbase. I mean that’s that’s a nice pick. I like that one a lot. Uh what do you think about the outside there? Ready for sure. That’s who I end up landing on. I see you got her uh in third. Yeah. And look, in fairness to Paul, he was so focused on the first two, he gave somewhat short shrift to third basically by just saying she’s a proven a proven closer at shorter distances. Remain to be seen, you know, at a mile and a quarter. We’ll see what happens. So, uh, that it didn’t look like there were any super positives or negatives from his perspective. I think he was really just looking at those top two, admitting that that first one she feels pretty is more likely. But again, I think there’s potential value if uh if Diamond Rain is at terrible odds and you’re looking at Ready for Shurl at something favorable. Yeah, take your shot. Yeah. No, you know what? And I’ll go through the whole spiel. I got I got plenty of notes on Ready for SP. Ready for Churl. So I leaned it on her. It’s funny. Matt and I he’s got 347. I got 743. So, we landed on pretty much the same exact trifecta, but ready for Sher 4-year-old more than ready Philly out of 2011 Breeders Cup Philly and Mayor Turf winner. Perfect Sher. How cool is that? For the Roger Atfield barn with Castellano coming in Castalano, he’s winning at 46% in all races at Woodbine the last five years, six wins from 13 starts. Doesn’t go up there a lot, but he goes up there to win. Ready for Sher spent most of her career at Woodbond, but she did break her maiden at Keeland last April, winning a main special, going to mile 16th on the turf by three and a half lengths over pinup Betty who won by five lengths in her next start and now has won multiple greatest stakes since. She comes to Woodbine last May trying the all weather. Ran well, finished second entry level allowance. goes back to the turf at the route distance. Wins by a mile and a quarter. Goes into a little bit of a slump last summer and fall. Finishing last in the grade three Ontario Colleen Stakes fourth in allowance in the ninth in the Ontario Damsel Stakes in October. But she comes back in her four-year-old season with a win at Gfream with Castellano aboard for his only mount aboard ready for Sher. Then finishes a disappointing seventh at grade three Honey Fox at Gfream in April. in fourth in allowance um uh in May on the regular dirt for the first time. Didn’t take to it and then comes back to Woodbine in May this year, runs third in that grade three balloon stakes to Caitlyn uh her greatness, the five in here on the all-w weather. Then her last start, they just been incredible. Uh in July, she finished second by just threequarters of length in that grade two NASA stakes weaving through traffic and just couldn’t get up in time, but she earned a one of six echcobased speed figure. She stretches out to that mile and an eighth last time out. Wins that grade two Canadian stakes by a head with the one in here. Venencia finishing third. Repeated that 106 a base speed figure in the Canadian stakes while steadily improving uh since March. Ranked second in a late pace rating of a 108.5 to only heavily favored she feels pretty all time. Matfield and Castalano they do have 88 starts together with 16 wins but they only have five starts together in the last five years. So kind of interesting that Castano is going aboard. But yeah, like you said, I mean, tote board, this horse could be five, six to one, I think. I mean, between the two of us, I I’m shocked that I’m the one that’s the lawyer. You I mean, you just presented a fantastic case. Very, very convincing. You tell a good story for sure. So, yeah, I mean, it it is interesting just the different handicapping approaches different people have. And boy, was that uh well presented. Well, I thank you. I appreciate that. That’s cool. Yeah. A lawyer. Yeah. I was thinking about going to law school way back in the day, but but I went with the horse route instead. And now this is my first ever office job off the farm. So, here we are. And then, yeah, I mean, she feels pretty. Geez. You know, though, I I I’m proud of myself. I beat her last time with that excellent truth. Um, but geez to try to beat her again, that’s going to be it’s going to be a little bit tough. I mean, one for one at Woodvine. And I would say from a betting perspective, this is not the kind of race where you can take her and another. I mean, I I think if you want, frankly, if you want to try to beat her and you want to take our two picks instead, go ahead. I don’t think uh I think you’re going to get great value, especially in multi-race bets that way. But uh this is not the kind of race that I’d look at and say spread. You’re just not you’re just not creating any value on a ticket if you Yeah. And in a seven horse field. I mean Yeah. Yeah. Million% million% agree. Especially if Diamond Rain is going to be that low as well. I mean you know I do like Diamond Rain though. Five or four for six lifetime three stakes wins two for three at this mile and a quarter distance. Yeah. could be really really tough in here that diamond ring. It’s it’s only I think it’s the price that might end up scaring me away. We’ll just have to see. Yeah. I mean, honestly, I think with all that money going on, she feels pretty and maybe a lot with the the Applebee Dolphin Buick connection. Maybe maybe perfect. Not perfect. Cheryl, ready for Cheryl will be maybe even maybe seven eight to one, which at that point we’ll we’ll do a win bet for sure. You got to back it up. Agreed. But anyway, let’s move on to the 166th running of the $1 million King’s Plate Stakes race nine at Woodbine on Saturday. The first leg of the trip Canadian Triple Crown. Uh the second leg being the Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Eerie in September. The final leg is back at Woodbine for the Breeders Stakes in October. So, the King’s Plate, formerly known as the Queen’s Plate when the Queen was alive, is a mile and a quarter on the all weather for three-year-olds. Last year’s winner was Caitlyn Her greatness for trainer Kevin Atard with Raphael Manuel Hernandez aboard a field of 13 Canadian breads on Saturday. Kevin Atard bringing in three although he might scratch the one and then Mark Cassie with two entries up piece. So who did you land on uh in the Kings plate? So, it’s funny. Pre-show, you asked me for my top three in every race, and I said, “If we want to be, if we want to be a smarty pants about it, uh, don’t put up any picks for me.” The reality is from a betting perspective, this is not my kind of race. Uh, this one, uh, my notes on this are courtesy of Jackson Mun with, uh, Oh, I love Jackson. I know you know Jackson. He’s all over the place. Actually, I got this write up from him, I think, at three in the morning. So, I Okay, super nice of him. Burning the midnight oil. Oh my goodness. But boy is this thoughtfully written. And you know, he knows me pretty well and basically says this is this is not your kind of race. This for my betting style. Uh completely the opposite of the other race. Completely wide open. I’d be hesitant to take too short of a price on anyone, although I think the morning line favorite deserves to be that. Uh, and Jackson is one, you know, I talk about handicapping the handicapper. He’s one that if he takes a short price, if you are inclined to bet short price horses, that’s one I would definitely look at hard because he does that so begrudgingly. Well, he didn’t do that here. He went with a bunch of price horses. So he went 41013. Uh I don’t get the sense by the way that is intended to be a trifecta. I mean I think those are the three most likely winners in his opinion. So I’m not sure I’d be messing around boxing those in exact although at this point now that I said that you probably should or have to. U but he likes scorching and said this was the horse he wanted coming out of a big prep race. uh you know and he makes a whole bunch of points about this not having a bunch of speed in the race and so a bunch of chaos possibly ensuing. Um but okay, it’s a wide openen race and I would I would tread carefully. I mean I could I could read his notes but I suspect you’re going to have uh equally detailed. So get to your picks on this one. What do you think? Okay. All right. I went all prices. Okay. So I I landed on Manetti morning line 10 to one Kevin Ataro Petro Moran aboard. So we’re on six different horses. Am I seeing that? We’re we’re on we’re on six different horse. 1 72 410 13. It is a wide open race. I mean I’m just gonna interrupt you rudely. Sorry. But I mean, if I’m listening to this show and right, I hear six different horses and unless I hear something ultra convincing or whatever, from a betting perspective, this is where I jump in and urge caution and say this just can’t be bet as hard as the other races today. You can’t possibly have the same level of confidence here. By the way, if you do, bet the hell out of it because you’re going to get a terrific price. But otherwise, some races are more for watching and enjoying with a little action bet. And that feels to me more like the case here. But all right, let’s hear your three. Well, I do want to say I mean it does give a great opportunity for for value. I mean, you know, if you do even even just trust your gut, you know, 10 to1, 15 to1, 21, just go for it. even just 20, you know, two, five, 10 bucks, we might as well just stick with uh with your gut. That’s honestly where I landed with Mensetti. Um went went through everybody in the race and went right back to him. But he started his career at Woodbine, winning by a length and a quarter on debut and made a special weight, going six furongs on the all-w weather. Uh goes right back to win the Clarendon Stakes at Woodbine, earning an 86 echo base speed figure, going gate to wire, winning by a length and a quarter again. goes to Aqueduct in January to try the regular dirt. Just does not take it. Finishing fifth by 25 lengths. Takes a fourmonth layoff in the winter. Comes back to Woodbine in late April to dominate that Woodstock Stakes by four lengths over notorious gangster. The three in here earning a career best 96 Echo base speed figure. He did run fifth in the listed Queenston Stakes and June at Woodbine, which might deter some betters. But if you look in the comments, you’ll see he lost an iron at the break. So, I mean, and I know my boy, my favorite horse ever, Chance Mcpatrick, was able to win a grade one without an iron, but not this horse. So, you know, I’m able to to cross that one off. Um, and then last time out, he runs in his first graded stakes company, winning the grade three marine stakes by length, overscorching the four in here and the six Ghost, who came back to win the plate trial stakes in July and Watsonville Road as well, the nine in here with 50 to1 morning line. But, um, that was his last start. So, he’s coming off a near two-month layoff, but that win in the grade three marine was his first time going two turns. So, he definitely passed that test. First time going this distance, but it seemed like the longer the better for this collected colt. Four for six lifetime at Woodbine as well. I love 10 to one on that. There’s my argument, my closing argument. Yeah, I rest my case. All right, so I’m looking uh now I’m looking over at Ecoin Edge to see what they have to say. And this again, if you saw what I was looking at, screams pass unless you have a strong opinion. U they’ve got uh your one horse as the second most likely winner with a distinct pace edge. And so frankly, uh that might be good enough to find good value on a horse like that. They’re projecting six to one, which I’m guessing you would take. Oh yeah, I’d probably take anything over four to one to have a likely leader in a race without a top pace. Okay. I mean, that’s right there. I think you got me. Uh but otherwise, yeah, as I’m looking, I mean, it’s funny. The horses that I gave you, one’s got a 4% chance, another 11. There’s there’s no one here that’s a standout. And so, but same thing on Raceelands. It gives you a win probability percentage and everybody’s in the single digits, you know. So, I mean, it does tell you to your point, you’re definitely getting value. Definitely. And unlike the other race, I think this is a race where you can spread a little bit. Um, you know, I am a fan of the all button from time to time. I don’t know if that’s it here or if this is one where you just take your top three and move on and say it wasn’t meant to be if I miss, but I don’t want to spend too much. But this definitely seems like one where it’s quite appropriate to go a little deeper. Yeah, I I think this one’s just a straight win bet type of race. I mean, you could go all day long with trying to to do some key trifecta boxes, but yeah, I I’m probably just to do 20 to win on Manetti. Anything over four to one. Yeah, but And and and when you admit that the race is so hard. Okay. Well, it’s hard enough to pick the winner and now you’re telling me I’ve got to get second and third for exact and tries. Yeah. In a 13 horse field on the all weather with three-year-olds, just Canadian Brits running in pretty similar races against each other, you know. And then you got uh like horses like the seven here runaway again. Morning line at 12 to one. Look at that horse. You know, a different Atard sitard, who’s Kevin Atar’s uncle, by the way. I just looked that up before the show. But he’s a hardspun geling strong staples homebred, one star under his belt, ran that maiden special weight going to mile 16th that was taken off the turf around the all weather. Broke last, broke slow, trailing the field um the first two points of call. He started moving up between horses on the backstretch, closing like a freight train on the far outside in the final turn. Then he just turned on the Jets dominating by nine and a quarter lengths earning an 84 base a speed figure on career debut and I did actually go back and looked in the GPS data and he lengthened his stride in the final eighth of a mile. So on career debut and Castellano aboard he’s winning 46% like I said at Woodbine really nice six furong work and 112.4 four on August 7th, you know? I mean, yeah, all these like really nice horses, so much potential. Like, how do you bet that one? Where’s that? You know, it’s just easier just to to kind of take a a top play, but if you did hit the try in here, that would that would pay huge. Would pay huge. And so, maybe it’s as simple as seven all, one all seven, not trying too hard to get too cute with, you know, nailing all three spots, something like that. It’ll still pay great. So, you know what this race kind of reminds me of is like an allowance at Kentucky Downs. Yeah. You know, full field, everybody’s pretty evenly matched. You have no idea, you know, how they’re going to take to it. So, yeah. What you know, and then Sedber’s Ghost, another consistent one. Three for five lifetime, the 12 on the outside. You know, all four starts in the mid 80s. So, the past four starts. Mhel hot winning at 33% in the past month. I I think that horse is gonna be in a nice midpack position to close into some pace if there is any. You know, see I don’t know. There’s so many three for five. Yeah. I mean, I’m looking right now. I totally agree. And yet, you know, I Ecoin Edge has him at 7%. Yeah. The morning line of 8 to1. And I there just seem to be a lot of stories like that. One of those is going to prove true. Uh but this Yeah. From a potential st, it almost has a Breeders Cup feel. Yeah. A two-year-old Breeders Cup race feel to it where I have a feeling whoever wins when you go back and look at the form, you’ll say, “Oh, yeah, that makes perfect sense.” Yeah. Yeah. I mean, they’re three-year-olds, but yeah, honestly, on paper, they almost look like juveniles. Well, anyway, it will be a fantastic million-doll race regardless. But last, but not least, let’s head on over to the West Coast. The grade one Delmare Oaks race eight on Saturday’s card at Delmare with a post time of 5:30 p.m. Pacific, 8:30 Eastern. Mile eighth on the turf for three-year-old Phillies. Last year’s winner was Ice Scream, You Scream for Trainer Phil Diamatada with Hector Berios aboard field of 11 on Saturday plus an also eligible love this field out there at Delmare and you and I were texting about it. Uh a very diversified connection. So that’s great. Um but how do you kind of see the pace scenario going out? uh with presumably the morning line favorite thought process out there in post night. She’s gonna want to go go. All right. So, if you’re getting a if you’re giving me a pace specific question, I’ll give you a pace specific answer. Yeah. Oh, I I love that. Okay. So, Ecoin Edge has again has thought proc thought process with a distinct pace advantage. So, uh that happens to be my top pick here. And it’s just interesting the three races you picked. And this is another one from Jackson who was super helpful. And the the guys helping me out know me. And so it’s just interesting that even in his notes he says, “Matt, this is the kind of race that you’re going to like.” Uh, and he’s completely right. And so I’m going to go off on a betting thing for a second. If I’m in a contest, this is exactly the kind of race that I’m looking for. if I’ve got two entries because there are two strong favorites that I think tower over the rest of this field. Could be wrong, could be famous last words. We’ll see. But between thought process and lush lips, uh I could see one entry going one direction, the other in another. Uh yeah, and I think a lot that works out perfect because you’ll make your case for thought process and I put lush lips on top. All right. Perfect. So, and lush and and thought process is my top pick. It’s funny, you and I, as we waited for the entries to come out, these came out a little faster. And so, I know. Yeah. I I took a look at this race first, took got the thought process and basically just closed it and said, “Yeah, this is exactly my kind of horse.” So, uh, you know, again, distinguishing the two horses from the field, uh, Jackson says they’re 10 points faster than the rest of the field on time form alone. And so, okay, that’s good enough for me. And, and by the way, if you are down to one contest entry, it’s a perfect opportunity. Don’t split the entry between the two picks and try and get too cute with don’t there’s no spreading in contests like that. So pick one, hammer it in the contest and play the other in cash to whatever extent you’re scared. Uh but if you do have two entries, again, it’s a great spot to go in two different directions. So again, as thought process is concerned, completely dominant in all of our turf winds. Has no equal out here on the West Coast. only blemish was in the Breeders Cup and I tend to excuse those sorts of blemishes pretty readily and that that that was to Lake Victoria the huge favorite who was coming on the outside and thought process I mean she held all the way up until like a 16th left agreed it’s one of the best Euros to be to ever be sent here and she ran a great race against her so it’s not exactly yeah honestly the form doesn’t Yeah she finished ninth but if you go back and watch it I mean she she ran tough Yeah, a agreed. And uh nothing wrong in either start this year. Doubters will point to her failure to increase her speed figure, but that Delmare race was never coming back fast on the clock. So, believe me, he’s thought this through. Clearly, the horse to beat in his opinion and the horse to beat and the horse to bet if the prices end up remotely similar. And that that’s the other key point is, you know, I guess if one of them ended up being, you know, two to three times the price of the other, I might rethink that a bit. But otherwise, this is the kind of horse that’s going to be my kind of this is a candidate for me to be a play of the day kind of horse. Oh, fair. Okay. Play of the day. Okay. I like that. Yeah. No knocks on your horse. I mean, literally, uh, she has done just about nothing wrong, you know, besides the Breeders Cup, like you said, and then her career debut. What was that on dirt? So, you know, no big deal. Um, one thing, all right, I do want to bring up which is kind of interesting. I was like you in between lush lips and thought process, but the fact that Hector Barios chose the two, you know, I maybe that’s a good question for you then. Do you think he chose the two or did Risfully want thought process? It’s it’s tough to know and these things get these things are a lot more complicated than it’s than they seem to be. Sometimes there’s an allegiance to an owner. Sometimes there’s a promise made from when a horse was born. Sometimes it’s I don’t think it’s always as simple as the jockeys and their agents handicapping the race and choosing the better horse. So I, you know, when it’s when it’s Chad and a grade one sending out three horses, he tends to have his number one guy on his number one horse. And I think you can I think you can read more into that. Something like this, it’s it’s just tough to tell. I don’t know. Yeah. Yeah. I agree. I agree. But yeah, I mean I I love how you said once you got to to her on the page, you closed the form because I was just about there, too. But I decided to go with Lush Lips instead. So I’ll make my make my case. Little Great Britain bread for the Brendan Walsh bar and Tyler Gaffle coming in to ride. He has been top form since returning to the saddle in July following that broken ankle in March. He’s winning at 29% since he’s gotten back and need a six win day with four stace wins last Sunday at Ellis Park. So no, he’s uh he’s in peak form. But Lush lip, she started her race career last July in Ireland. Finishing ninth on career debut, going seventh furongs on the turf. Comes back to run second in Maiden. also in Ireland last August before making her way across the Atlantic over here to the states with a very tough North American debut at Kentucky Downs, finishing ninth in a main special. But horses for courses, some some love it, some hate it. So, but she switches to Brennan Walsh Barn after that Kentucky Downs race and uh comes back a couple months later in late November, puts blinkers on and just dominates the main special GFream going a mile and 70 yards in the all weathering 86 echo base speed figure. comes back in January to win an entry- level allowance going about mile 16th on the turf at GFream by two lengths. Tyler Gaffle first time riding runs a very valiant effort in the grade three Florida Oaks in March nearly getting caught at the wire by nitrogen who I think is the best three-year-old Philly on turf in the country. Some people might differ, but that’s just my opinion. You know, she finished a very game second running a 101 echcobased speed figure. And following that second place finish, uh, she scratched out of the grade two Appalachin at Keeland in April to run in the grade two Edgewood at Churchill in May. And this time tried to close into nitrogen, but again was just second best. Uh, finishing second by three and a half lengths. And last time she kicked clear to win the grade or not the grade, but the list of teen stakes at Churchill by three and three/4ers lengths, earning a career best 107 echo base speed figure. That 107 is the best of any horse entered in here. um and the best last out echo base speed figure. Just a little race lens angle. Horses in greatest stakes races with the highest last race echo speed figure in the race are winning at 29% last six months. 87 wins from 301 starts. She also has the highest late pace rating in the race as well with a 107.5 another race lines angle. All the stats horses and turf route graded stakes races with the highest late pace rating in the field are winning at 31% in the past six months. 25 wins from 80 starts. You know, if this Philly is the second best nitrogen, you know, best Philly turf Philly in the country, then Lush lift should absolutely air on Saturday. I I just don’t see any reason why not. And Gaffle rarely goes out to Delmare, but um he has made this move in the past with a horse base in Kentucky going out to Delmare to win the Delmare Oaks. He did that with Spenderella back in 2022 for Trainer Graham motion. So, I think these guys are here to win. They’re not just shipping out there for nothing. There’s my argument. All right. So, you scared me enough that I’m at least reducing how much I’m back. Okay. Okay. Fair enough. Fair enough. You make you make a good case. Although, frankly, you you talk so smoothly about all this that I think you could make anyone sound decent. So, take that. Well, I I will I appreciate that. Appreciate that. Yeah. No, we’re we’re uping at them early this morning trying to get get these handicapped. Well, and look, again, we talked about it a little bit before, but it’s a question of how you choose to bet these and in what format. CAWs are a topic of the day, you know, quite a bit. And I talk, you know, I I’m pretty quick to mention that I think contests are one way to somewhat mitigate the impact of of the CAW. So, as I look at some of these races, I’m looking at them through the lens of can I get them into a is there a contest today where I can where I’ll be able to play these races? And yes, I think uh if memory serves, I think there’s a couple different contests that cover the Woodbine card. I can’t remember offhand if there’s one for Delmare or not, but the bottom line is these contests are a nice way to play these horses, especially if you’re prepared to really pound your opinion. It’s almost like that prize pool gives you a profit boost on what you were going to bet anyway. So, just Well, speaking of contests, if anybody out there lives in Lexington, every Friday I go out to Red Mile and do um a little contest and it’s just Delmare. So they do just turf way in the winter, just Delmare every Friday in the summer and it’s just $2 win win place bet and it’s like a first place is like a thousand bucks for us a couple hundred people usually play. So please come on out this Friday and join me at the luxurious red mile for some Delmare action. But no, it really is just contest just a great way to play a full day of racing for like 20 bucks, you know, just really have a good time with it. So, I encourage everybody to uh to to start on on contests if you haven’t already or try to race NHC if you’re an active Raceel Lens subscribers. So, Matt, thank you so much for being on. This has just been a blast hearing your thoughts on these races.
