BMW Championship 2025 Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:
Justin Rose rallied on Sunday with four consecutive birdies on holes 14-17 to force a playoff with J.J. Spaun and emerged victorious on the third playoff hole to win the first event of the FedExCup Playoffs at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis.
Rose, 100-1 odds pre-tournament, earned his 12th career PGA Tour victory at age 45.
Nevertheless, the story of the event has to be Tommy Fleetwood, one of our selections last week, coming up short yet again in the seemingly endless pursuit of his first PGA Tour victory. Fleetwood stood on the 16th tee at TPC Southwind with a two-shot lead with his most dangerous pursuer Scottie Scheffler fresh off a bogey and seemingly just out of striking distance. Then, he made par on the easiest hole on the course at thepar-5 16th and made bogey on No. 17. Needing birdie on 18 to get into a playoff, Fleetwood, who led the tournament for Driving Accuracy (hitting 47/56 fairways; 83.9%), hit his tee shot into a fairway bunker and settled for par on 18.
Fleetwood has now made 161 PGA Tour starts without a win. He has six runner-up finishes, six third-place finishes, 29 top-fives and 42 top-10s. He has eight wins worldwide, but none on American soil.
This week, he will be part of the 50-player field at the BMW Championship just outside of Baltimore.
Of course, leading this week’s field is Scheffler (+250), who finished T-3 along with Fleetwood and one shot out of the playoff. Scheffler led the field for Strokes Gained: Putting on Saturday but could not duplicate it on Sunday.
Rory McIlroy (7-1) skipped last week’s event in Memphis yet still ranks No. 2 in the FedExCup point standings. He finished fourth at this event in 2021, the last time it was held at this week’s venue, Caves Valley.
Xander Schauffele (20-1) had consecutive top-10 finishes at the Scottish Open and British Open but was unable to carry over that momentum last week, finishing T-22 and is still looking for his first victory in 2025.
As for Fleetwood (20-1), he has had two likely victories slip through his fingers over the last two months.
The last time this event was held at Caves Valley in 2021, Patrick Cantlay (22-1) was the winner. Cantlay, like his best pal Schauffele, also has not won in 2025, but he did finish T-9 last week in Memphis and was third in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach.
At 25-1 are Justin Thomas and Ludvig Åberg, while Cameron Young (30-1), the winner two weeks ago in Greensboro, Spaun (33-1), Collin Morikawa (33-1) and Russell Henley (33-1) follow in the market.
Twenty-two players in this week’s field also played in the 2021 event. Aside from the winner Cantlay and McIlroy, other high finishers in the 2021 event also playing this week include Sungjae Im (50-1), who finished third, and Sam Burns (35-1), who finished eighth.
The Field
The Top 50 in the FedExCup point standings after last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship make up this week’s field.
Five players moved into the 50 and five players moved outside the number based on last week’s results:
Moving in
Kurt Kitayama (No. 37, T9)
Bud Cauley (No. 46, T14)
Rickie Fowler (No. 48, T6)
Jhonattan Vegas (No. 49, T14)
J.T. Poston (No. 50, T22)
Moving out
Aldrich Potgieter (No. 52, T59)
Jordan Spieth (No. 54, T38)
Jake Knapp (No. 55, T62)
Wyndham Clark (No. 56, T56)
Min Woo Lee (No. 57, T68)
The top 30 in the point standings after this week will move on to next week’s finale in Atlanta for the Tour Championship.
Here are the current point standings for the FedExCup leading into this week’s event.
NOTE: Sepp Straka W/D from the field on Monday due to a private family matter. That means the field will be 49 players this week.
The Course
Caves Valley Golf Club returns to the PGA Tour as a venue for the first time since 2021. It is in Owings Mills, Md., which is a suburb of Baltimore and where the Baltimore Ravens have their training camp. Caves Valley is a Tom Fazio design (1991) which has hosted a few other high-profile professional events, including the 2002 Senior U.S. Open. In 2014, it hosted the LPGA’s International Crown team event, and in 2017 hosted the Constellation Senior Players Championship on the Champions Tour.
The course did not exactly get rave reviews in 2021 as it was thought to be too easy and proved to be so as Patrick Cantlay won the event at 27 under par in a playoff over Bryson DeChambeau. Seven players shot 20 under or better in the event. The track had plenty of rain before the event, so it played soft. Conditions should be firmer and faster this week.
This time, Caves Valley should prove to be more difficult. The Tom Fazio design has been converted from a par-72 to a par-70, emphasizing more on mid- to long-iron approach shots. The course has also been slightly lengthened to over 7,600 yards (7,601 to be exact). Bunkers have been moved in order to narrow the landing areas off the tee.
The bentgrass greens (5,200 average square feet; 12.5 stimpmeter) have been reshaped not only for more difficult pins but also for more uniformity in terms of green speed. They are also closer to hazard areas this time around.
The rough, a combination of ryegrass, bluegrass and fescue, has also been grown out to three inches. The fairways have also been slightly narrowed.
To get to the current par-70 configuration, the 525-yard second and 521-yard 12th holes that usually play as par-5s will be changed to par-4s for this week.
Other changes since 2021 include the par-4 first hole being lengthened by 100 yards to 481 yards.
Comparable courses to Caves Valley include Valhalla, TPC Craig Ranch, Detroit GC, Liberty National, Vidanta Vallarta and Memorial Park. All of these courses are long tracks and driver-heavy layouts.
Here is a drone flyover of the renovated Caves Valley Golf Club courtesy of the PGA Tour.
Weather
The AccuWeather forecast shows that the Baltimore area will get some rain on Wednesday and for Thursday’s opening round. The heat should keep the course firmer and faster than it was in 2021.
BMW Championship Recent History/Winners
2024: Keegan Bradley (-12/276); Castle Pines; 100-1
2023: Viktor Hovland (-17/263); Olympia Fields; 18-1
2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14/270); Wilmington; 16-1
2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27/261); Caves Valley; 25-1*
2020: Jon Rahm (-4/276); Olympia Fields; 10-1**
2019: Justin Thomas (-25/263); Medinah; 16-1
2018: Keegan Bradley (-20/260); Aronimink; 140-1***
2017: Marc Leishman (-23/261); Conway Farms; 45-1
2016: Dustin Johnson (-23/265); Crooked Stick; 10-1
2015: Jason Day (-22/262); Conway Farms; 15-2
2014: Billy Horschel (-14/266); Cherry Hills; 66-1
2013: Zach Johnson (-16/268); Conway Farms; 40-1
2012: Rory McIlroy (-20/268); Crooked Stick; 7-1
2011: Justin Rose (-13/271); Cog Hill; 66-1
2010: Dustin Johnson (-9/275); Cog Hill; 33-1
Playoff win over Bryson DeChambeau – *
Playoff win over Dustin Johnson – **
Playoff win over Justin Rose – ***
Statistical Analysis
At 5,200 square feet on average, the greens at Caves Valley are on the smaller side, so approach play and precision with the irons carry even more importance this week.
Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)
Scottie Scheffler 1.292
Viktor Hovland 0.937
Shane Lowry 0.832
Collin Morikawa 0.812
J.J. Spaun 0.729
Patrick Cantlay 0.665
Tommy Fleetwood 0.663
Xander Schauffele 0.656
Hideki Matsuyama 0.621
Akshay Bhatia 0.602
Nick Taylor 0.546
Russell Henley 0.543
Daniel Berger 0.535
Justin Thomas 0.529
Lucas Glover 0.506
Caves Valley is right at 7,600 yards in length, so there will not be many wedge shot approaches here. Instead, most of them will be from 175 to 200 yards or at 200 yards or more.
Average Proximity Gained — Feet Gained Per Round — 175 to 200 Yards (Last 50 rounds)
Viktor Hovland 16.17
Si Woo Kim 11.49
Hideki Matsuyama 10.47
Scottie Scheffler 10.15
Keegan Bradley 9.36
Shane Lowry 8.56
Collin Morikawa 7.90
Akshay Bhatia 7.78
Nick Taylor 6.11
Xander Schauffele 6.02
Lucas Glover 5.94
Taylor Pendrith 5.24
Corey Conners 5.11
Brian Campbell 4.73
Average Proximity Gained — Feet Gained Per Round — 200+ Yards (Last 50 rounds)
Ryan Gerard 26.06
Scottie Scheffler 21.91
Viktor Hovland 19.72
Akshay Bhatia 17.99
Matt Fitzpatrick 17.27
Hideki Matsuyama 16.27
Ludvig Åberg 15.11
Russell Henley 12.98
Michael Kim 12.86
Daniel Berger 9.94
Tom Hoge 9.68
Xander Schauffele 8.84
Denny McCarthy 6.57
Nick Taylor 6.29
Tommy Fleetwood 5.98
Caves Valley is a driver-heavy course. Two par-5s were converted to par-4s, so gaining off the tee became even more crucial.
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)
Scottie Scheffler 0.727
Rory McIlroy 0.632
Chris Gotterup 0.578
Taylor Pendrith 0.567
Ludvig Åberg 0.523
Kurt Kitayama 0.507
Collin Morikawa 0.503
Daniel Berger 0.424
Corey Conners 0.413
Aaron Rai 0.391
Sungjae Im 0.352
Keegan Bradley 0.351
Patrick Cantlay 0.312
Si Woo Kim 0.307
J.J. Spaun 0.307
Cameron Young 0.307
In the 2021 event here, longer hitters and elite drivers littered the leaderboard, such as Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Sam Burns and Jon Rahm.
Average Driving Distance (2025 PGA Tour season)
Rory McIlroy 323.4
Kurt Kitayama 317.8
Chris Gotterup 316.4
Ludvig Åberg 313.1
Cameron Young 312.9
Xander Schauffele 312.2
Taylor Pendrith 310.6
Jhonattan Vegas 309.2
Ryan Fox 308.1
Sam Burns 307.1
Sam Stevens 306.5
Thomas Detry 306.3
Scottie Scheffler 306.3
Keegan Bradley 305.8
J.J. Spaun 305.8
While Caves Valley should play more difficult than 2021, somewhere close to 20 under par should still be the winning score, so there are plenty of birdie opportunities.
Birdie Or Better Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)
Scottie Scheffler 26.14%
Kurt Kitayama 25.54
Justin Thomas 25.49
Rory McIlroy 24.67
Akshay Bhatia 24.35
Chris Gotterup 23.84
Justin Rose 23.78
Patrick Cantlay 23.75
Collin Morikawa 23.70
Viktor Hovland 23.68
Sam Burns 23.58
Cameron Young 23.56
Ludvig Åberg 23.50
Hideki Matsuyama 23.27
Russell Henley 23.15
The course will be more difficult than in 2021 but still will be scoreable.
Strokes Gained: Easy Scoring Conditions (Last 50 rounds)
Scottie Scheffler 106.9
Akshay Bhatia 105.8
Collin Morikawa 71.6
Justin Thomas 71.5
Xander Schauffele 66.4
Ludvig Åberg 65.7
Ben Griffin 62.4
Maverick McNealy 61.6
Russell Henley 56.5
Rory McIlroy 55.8
Daniel Berger 55
Viktor Hovland 52
Harry Hall 50.2
J.J Spaun 49.3
Patrick Cantlay 48.8
Taylor Pendrith 45.5
Sam Burns 45.5
The greens at Caves Valley are Bentgrass and will run around 12.5 on the stimpmeter.
Strokes Gained: Putting — Bentgrass Greens (Last 50 rounds)
Matt Fitzpatrick 43.4
Harris English 39.8
Denny McCarthy 39.1
Justin Rose 37
Keegan Bradley 31.4
Harry Hall 31.3
Xander Schauffele 27
Sam Burns 26.1
Viktor Hovland 22.1
Jason Day 19.6
Maverick McNealy 18.3
Brian Campbell 18
Sam Stevens 17.8
Ludvig Åberg 17.6
Rory McIlroy 16.8
Tommy Fleetwood 15.3
Andrew Novak 15.1
Caves Valley is the fourth-longest course on the PGA Tour this year.
Strokes Gained: Long Courses (Last 50 rounds)
Scottie Scheffler 130.4
Rory McIlroy 95.3
Xander Schauffele 94
Corey Conners 73.5
Sungjae Im 62.8
Collin Morikawa 60.2
Hideki Matsuyama 58.3
Russell Henley 55.7
Sam Stevens 55.1
Keegan Bradley 52.5
Tommy Fleetwood 51.9
Harris English 51.4
Ludvig Åberg 51.3
Shane Lowry 43.6
Michael Kim 41.1
Viktor Hovland 41
Selections
Ludvig Åberg (22-1, DraftKings)
After nearly completing a late run at the Masters, Åberg hit a lull in the late spring and early summer, including missed cuts at both the PGA and U.S. Open, plus went without a top-10 finish anywhere for three months.
However, he has two top-10 finishes in his last three starts and has gained with his ball striking (off the tee + approach) in each of his last seven starts dating to early June at the Memorial.
Caves Valley is a course Åberg can attack with the driver and long irons.
Patrick Cantlay (25-1, FanDuel)
The last time the BMW Championship was held at Caves Valley, Cantlay was the winner. However, his last victory anywhere was at this event the following year in 2022.
He ranked third in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach en route to a top-10 finish last week.
Of late, he has been playing frequently with Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley in tournament practice rounds, which is a sign that he is certainly on the team and that takes some pressure off and allows him to concentrate on breaking this drought.
Cameron Young (30-1, DraftKings)
Young followed up his long-awaited first PGA Tour victory in Greensboro two weeks ago with a top-5 finish in Memphis last weekend, capped by the Sunday low round of 64 to carry over momentum into this week.
He also led last week’s field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee.
Young tends to ride waves and continue hot form over several-week spans, and with the Ryder Cup selection looming and playing this week on a driver-heavy course, this looks like a good spot for him to contend yet again.
Sam Burns (45-1, Circa Sports)
Burns shared the first-round lead here four years ago before finishing eighth.
He led the field for Strokes Gained: Putting in Memphis last week.
Caves Valley is a good course for Burns in that he can attack with the driver and perhaps make a good last impression for Ryder Cup inclusion.
Kurt Kitayama (50-1, BetRivers)
Kitayama was good to us three weeks ago, cashing a 40-1 winner at the 3M Open on a driver-heavy course, so we will go back to him again at Caves Valley.
He finished ninth last week in Memphis, gaining strokes across the board and played his way into the top 50 to make this field.
Kitayama is 37th in the FedExCup standings and needs a big week to make next week’s Tour Championship at East Lake.
Placement markets, matchups, and/or other futures will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks
