Matt Cooper steps in for Ben Coley this week, and he has four selections at big prices for the BMW Championship.
Golf betting tips: BMW Championship
1pt e.w. Cameron Young at 30/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Sepp Straka at 45/1 (Unibet, BetMGM 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Sam Burns at 35/1 (Unibet, BetMGM 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Ben Griffin at 35/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
After last week’s preview, Ben Coley, much like a brooding Charlton Heston playing Michaelangelo in the 1965 Carol Reed movie, knows all about the agony and the ecstasy. On the one hand there was the glory of tipping the winner Justin Rose at 80/1, on the other the raw sting of yet another cruel Tommy Fleetwood near-miss.
Coincidentally, if I’m ever in a gallery featuring Renaissance art I half expect to bump into a lookalike of Fleetwood because the Southport man’s hair, face, and, in particular, those piercingly bright blue eyes always recall Jesus cast in various scenes of Biblical piety, sympathy and/or torment (‘Tommy Crowned with Thorns’, maybe, or ‘The Lamentation of Tommy’).
On to this week, though, and the penultimate tournament of the 2025 PGA Tour season, the BMW Championship, which returns to Caves Valley in Maryland. In theory, the event is an extension of the Western Open which was once one of the sport’s great championships until it was first taken over by a corporate, and then included in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
For the most part the event sticks to the midwest, although last year it did venture to Denver. When it was first played at Caves Valley, Jon Rahm said: “It’s typical of the venues, and the parts of the country, we play this event at. We’re talking tree-lined, we’re talking bent grass, we’re talking high rough and ball-striking.”
“It’s a big ballpark,” added Rory McIlroy. “You can certainly let it rip out here and hit a lot of drivers.” But Marc Leishman warned: “The greens are a challenge. They’re very undulating. If you’re on the wrong level, you’re going to have some issues. I think there’s going to be some really low scores but some pretty high ones, as well.”
What did the stats tells us in 2021? Well, the top 11 finishers all ranked top 20 for Strokes Gained Putting and all but one of them also did so for SG Off the Tee, while only four did so in Approach or Around the Greens. The winner, Patrick Cantlay, ranked first for SG Putting and runner-up (after a play-off) Bryson DeChambeau was second (and first for Off the Tee). So the numbers tallied with the thoughts of those players.
Traditional stats tell a similar story: the winner was first for Putt Average, the runner-up second and even third-placed Sungjae Im ranked third in that category. That said, the top three gave little hint that they’d thrive with the flat-stick ahead of that week. Cantlay was ranking 61st for SG Putting in 2021, DeChambeau was 36th and Im 54th. Putt Average wasn’t much help either as the trio ranked 109th, 64th and 69th.
SG Off the Tee might be a better pointer, however, because Cantlay ranked 13th, DeChambeau was leading the category and Im was 16th.
Cantlay and DeChambeau left the field in their wake, finishing four shots clear of the rest and it’s striking that both have been victorious at Muirfield Village and so, too, has Jon Rahm who was among a three-way tie for the first round lead. The two courses fit the bill Rahm discussed: long off the tee, bent grass, thick rough and tricky greens. They’re even roughly in the same neck of the woods (top right of America).
Scottie Scheffler remains a fearsome prospect and this week might suit him more than last week, but his price reflects that. McIlroy can be easily overlooked while continuing to struggle with his strongest weapon, the driver. Instead the strategy this week will be to look beyond the top end, although not too far.
We’ll kick off with CAMERON YOUNG, the man who broke his winning duck two weeks go at the Wyndham Championship. His SG Off the Tee ranking this year is 35th but that’s explained by a spell in which a typical strength of his went missing. He ranked second in the category when winning two starts ago and was first last week when fifth in the St Jude Championship (and he’s ended past PGA Tour seasons ranked second and 12th with his driver just to reiterate how good he is from the tee box).
He’s also currently better than ever on the green. “I’ve putted really well all year,” he said just before converting the opportunity at Sedgefield. “I’m mechanically better than I’ve ever been.”
The Muirfield village connection is no use here – Young has no top 20 in four starts but he has always driven well there, at least. His form over this last fortnight has been fantastic, however, and the clincher is that he has won on a Tom Fazio design (as Caves Valley is) – at The Glen Club in Illinois on the Korn Ferry Tour.
That win also came a week after his first on the second tier. He’s gone 2-3-2, 2-2, and 4-4 on the PGA Tour. He’s ridden waves in the past and can do again this week.
Second up is the Austrian SEPP STRAKA. Red hot in the first part of the year, he tripped himself up in the majors, maybe due to high expectations. But he was seventh in the Scottish Open before the Open and T17 last week at TPC Southwind.
He was also third at Muirfield Village in June, 12 months after being fifth there. The likely European Ryder Cup team member is a solid 35th in Off the Tee this year but he ranked first at Muirfield Village and was third last week. He’s also putted strongly most of the summer. And his first win on the PGA Tour came at the Tom Fazio designed PGA National (renovated by Jack Nicklaus).
Four years ago SAM BURNS thrashed a first round 64 to share the first round lead and he also added a third round 65 on his way to eighth. “The golf course is great,” he said. “Really cool place. I like the layout. You can see different holes, it’s a big property and it’s really beautiful looking. It’s been a joy to be here.”
He was good off the tee that week (sixth) and tends to thrive when he gets that club working because he’s typically excellent on the greens. He got off to a slow start last week at TPC Southwind but played nicely at the weekend and in his four starts before that he ranked top 20 Off the Tee every time.
Last week he was first for Putting and if he can marry the two he can contend and further his case for Ryder Cup inclusion.
We’ll complete the team with BEN GRIFFIN. It’s been a breakout year for the 29-year-old and he might not be done just yet. He has 13 top 20s in 2025 and eight of them in his last 10 starts alone.
The highlights are the wins in the New Orleans pairs event and the Charles Schwab Challenge. But he was also the leader through 36 holes at Muirfield Village when eventually second. In his last two starts he’s been T11 at Sedgefield and seventh last week at TPC Southwind. His best driving (by numbers at least) came at Muirfield Village and he ranked second for Putting at Sedgefield. He also has five top 25s from eight starts on Tom Fazio original designs including fourth place this season at PGA National.
Posted at 1420 BST on 11/08/25
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