BMW Championship + LIV Indianapolis 2025 – Preview, Picks and Best Bets

Fore The Win is back to recap the recent golf action, including a detailed and thorough look at the exciting PGA TOUR action that will take place at the BMW Championship at the Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland. In this video, we will dive deep into the highlights of the tournament, discussing the standout performances of the players, the challenging course conditions, and the thrilling moments that kept fans on the edge of their seats throughout the event.

Our analysis will also cover the strategies employed by the top golfers, as well as the implications of their performances for the upcoming events in the PGA TOUR season for the coveted FedEx Cup.

Additionally, we will take a moment to reflect on the history of the BMW Championship and its significance in the overall PGA TOUR landscape, including past winners and memorable moments that have shaped this prestigious tournament.

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SHOW INDEX
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00:00 | Intro & St. Jude Recap
07:15 | Picks & Preview
16:40 | Final Thoughts ✌️

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And welcome back to For the Win for the BMW Championship, the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs. Paulie, we come back for more action. And uh we had a thrilling thrilling uh finish at the FedEx Cup St. Jude Classic. Uh it was a playoff between Justin Rose and JJ Spawn. Four holes. Justin Rose birdies the fourth hole to take it. Um pretty exciting. Tommy Fleetwood had a two-shot lead with I believe three holes to go. He blows it. Another heartbreak. It was tough to watch Paul. I mean, he he did this uh at the Travelers and then um you know, Keegan caught up to him and birdied the last to beat him. And uh there was a par five on the back nine where had Tommy just made a birdie. Probably would have closed the deal. He uh he made a par uh spawn birdie 17. I believe Justin Rose birdied his last four holes to get into the playoff. Nice. So, it was pretty exciting. Sheffller was in the mix there for a little bit. Uh couldn’t get across the the finish line exactly, but um yeah, none of my guys really did all that well. Paul, it was another disappointing week on the PGA Tour. My LIB golfers did do okay though. Um I had Brooks, Sergio, and HV3. And uh after round one, I was loving it. I believe Sergio and Brooks were tied for the lead and um I was like, “Okay, good start.” You know, we got two rounds to go. And then um Brooks went south round two. Sergio nah. And um Earl Varnner came on. He actually he was plus one in round one and he was actually the guy was closest to the lead. I actually had a little sweat with Varner going down the stretch. He was two back. I think he shot uh minus 6 or minus 7 on the final round. So he uh he showed something there. So someone to maybe keep an eye on for this week’s action in the Liv Golf Circuit. Liv will be going to Indianapolis for their second to last event and the PGA Tour. We are going to Maryland Paul. Woohoo. We are going to this is a a course that they played in 2021. Okay. And uh it was like the home of a shootout between Patrick Kentlay and Bryson Dash Shambo. I believe they went to a playoff at minus 28, which is like one of the lowest scores I’ve ever heard of. Yeah. I mean, there was no wind on this course. It was wet. Uh no rough. The course has been redesigned though. This is what I’ve heard. Um, it’s called it’s called Caves Valley and it’s just outside Baltimore. It’s uh one of the longer tracks on the tour. I think around 7800 yards, par 70. So, so it’s got some meat on the bone. Oh, yeah. Um, so yeah, this is the BMW Championship. Uh, obviously Scotty Sheffler is your odds on favorite. No surprise there, Paul. super low number, you know, plus 260. I think last week he closed at uh was it plus 320 I believe, so a little over 3 to one. And with a smaller field, you got to expect that number to be smaller. I mean, there’s only 50 guys in this field. Uh Rory will be back. So Rory’s back in action after his sbatical. Um, I think Rory dropped to fourth in the standings from number two, so I think he’ll be okay. The whole two spots. Oh my god, the world is going to come to an end. I know, right? And it’s like um Spawn and Justin Rose just passed him. So, I mean, a good tournament here and uh he could be pretty much in first place for the tour championship. This is Ros’s first win in a while, isn’t it? It it is. Yeah. Since I believe the 2022 Pebble Beach Prom. Wow. It has been It has been a while. I thought Rose went to live for a while there, didn’t he? No, honestly, I thought he was going to be one of the guys that would go. I mean, a lot of his like contemporaries like uh you know, Poulter, Westwood, Stenson, GMAC, like they all went, right? All in that same age group. And I mean, and Rosy’s 45, right? So, he’s no spring chicken. Only one one year younger than myself. So, that was actually the first win for a 40-year-old this year on tour. Wow. Kind of surprised me. All the surprises are taking over, huh? Mhm. They said uh Rose’s victory was he was the oldest dude to win on tour since um Phil won his PGA at the age of 50 in 2022 at Kiwa. Yeah. So, over three years. And um goes to show you it’s a young man’s tour. It’s not like Oh, yeah. Yeah, I remember we would see, you know, we would see VJ and uh guys like that, you know, win in their 40s, Jim Furick, Kenny Perry. I mean, it’s not easy to win. I know injuries happen to a lot of these guys when they get in their 40s. And I still recall uh t when Tiger turned 40, he told everyone he wanted to have the career that VJ had in his 40s. And um let’s let’s just say that it never happened. I mean, injuries really really slowed him down, but I mean also the competition’s got just what it’s more deeper now. Maybe not with it either. My voodoo I think your voodoo had a couple of things to do. Your voodoo your voodoo definitely had a couple of things to do with it. Um, okay. So, previous winner last week, last year I should say, was Keegan Bradley. Obviously, a different course. Uh they’re saying the course has been renovated, new greens, um new slopes on the green. They’re trying to make it tougher. Um I think the rough’s supposed to be a little bit up. Basically, they don’t want it to be a pitch and putt like it was in 2021. Are they going to tiger proof it? No, I mean like they’re I mean the winner was the W the winning score was minus 28, right? So that by my math that’s like you got to shoot minus 78 every day just to stay afloat, right? So I don’t think they wanted to be like that for a for a for for a playoff event. I think they wanted to be under 20 under par. Yeah. And um yeah, I’m I’m looking forward to I don’t remember too much from the course. I just remember it was a big track. Uh the playoff was just electric. Patrick Can was like making 30 40footers like nothing. just center cut and um yeah Shambo took the loss in that one. So I got a I got a few picks up the sleeve and Paul I’m trying something new this week. Uh oh. I am going into the I’m going into the market without Scotty Sheffler. It’s my first time ever doing it. Um well the thing is um with his odds I mean I there’s a really good chance he’s going to win. Um so I’m taking like a little a little bit of points drop. So instead of getting guys in the 35 to1 range I’m getting them 25 to1 range. Right. So okay excuse me. Uh yeah. So a little bit of a points drop but not too too much. Um, I just don’t want to mess with uh, you know, down the stretch on a Sunday with Sheffller. Guy’s a freaking robot, man. And, um, I don’t know. I mean, I see him I see him probably winning this tournament. So, I’m going to take uh, Russell Henley at 25 to one without Scotty Sheffler. Uh, I think that’s a great number considering it’s only a 50man field and Russell Russell Henley isn’t like the I know what people are going to think. He’s not the prototypical like guy for this uh tournament. You know, he’s not one of the longer hitters. Um, probably one of the shorter hitters in the 50man field here and this is a big ballpark. But the thing is with Henley Paul, he he hits his long irons really well. I mean, he won at Bay Hill this year. Bay Hills, a pretty big ballpark and uh he’s played well in the majors the last two or three years and so the majors aren’t exactly short courses. So I like myself some Russell Henley at 25 to1 next up I am going to be rocking with Matt Fitzpatrick. He’s uh 37 to1 in the regular odds but I’m taking him at 28 to1 with no Scotty Sheffller. He’s been playing really well ever since I would say probably the Scottish Open. Uh maybe even the Travelers. Uh you know, he played well at the Open Championship. I believe he was uh just outside the top uh spot in the Scottish Open. Him and Got up were up there and um did okay last week. Nothing special. I just uh I think Matt Fitzpatrick is ready to rock and roll. He was he’s been a hot pick for the last I would say month and now I think because of this course I think people are going to kind of back off of him. Ah yeah right. So I mean I think I think Matt Fitzpatrick can play any course. He’s great with his long irons and he is I mean longer than average. He’s longer than he looks, right? He looks like he’s like 20-year-old kid. But um yeah, that speed training he did in uh 2022 during COVID, it really really helped. And so yeah, I’m going to take him 28 to1 without Scotty Sheffler. And the final guy I got so far for my PGA Tour picks is Bobby Mack. I’m going with him again, the Scotsman. Uh didn’t do that great last week. His first round was meh. His fourth round was eh second and third were pretty good. I think he was minus two minus three. I just think Bobby’s due. He he’s gonna pop off one of these weeks. He’s a winner. Oh yeah. He’s one of the better players on tour. I think I just I mean I love his game. I think he can win on any course. Uh probably FedEx the St. Jude TPC Southwind wasn’t probably his ideal setup. So, I think he’ll be probably a little doing a little better at Caves Valley and um I don’t think he played it in 2021. I don’t think he was on the tour back then, but I mean it’s pretty much a new course for everyone with new greens and a new setup. So, I grabbed Bobby Mack at 40 to1. Sweet. I think his regular odds were 55 to1. And a couple other guys I’m looking at, but I haven’t made any official plays yet. Uh Shane Lowry 50 to1 without Scotty Sheoffller and Ryan Gerard 90 to1 without Scotty Sheoffller but I haven’t officially punched the ticket Paul. Those are just kind of you know the leans they’re kind of they’re um I’m looking for a reason maybe to to bet them. But uh right now just just a small lean towards those guys. I got a couple of guys for Liv. I haven’t I haven’t placed any bets for Liv. No, I’m not doing any top 20s just because the price is so expensive. Paul cuz there’s only 50 guys in the field. Like an eachway. Do they have the eachway? The eight. They do. I might do that for Gerard and I might do that for like guys in the 90 to1 and above range. Uh but I might look into the eachway for Yeah. for for the 90 and 100 to one type golfers. But um yeah, I’m not looking at any top 20s. Just it’s it’s there’s no value unless you’re taking a guy at 50 to one or something like like if I take Bobby Mack, maybe it might be worth it, but the guys otherwise I’m laying like major juice and if it doesn’t hit, you know, it’s a it’s a big hit to the the old account. Uh, so just because these fields are so small, I will be going back to the top 20s when we’re we’re back in action in September for the Napa tournament, the Pro Core. Okay, that’s when we’ll be uh back to the regular top. We have a full slate of of golfers, not when we’re not not not when you’re not when you’re doing it with the cream of the crop, per se, because it’s like, hell, any one of these guys would probably make it in the top 20. Yeah, exactly. I mean, it’s it’s you got to beat what, like 40% of the field, 50 60% of the field, right? It’s not really that much of an accomplishment, right? And when they don’t hit, it’s pricey as hell, right? So, anyways, I got a few leans for Liv. Uh Liv’s an indie. I don’t know anything about the course. Um the track they played uh last week was was decent. It was better than I thought it would be. It was uh in the Chicago area. It was a three-man playoff. Dean Burmester beats out uh John Rom, the betting favorite, and the young gun Josel Ballister, the uh he was the guy known for um taking a leak at Ray Creek. Um, so yeah, he’s uh trying to make a different name for himself, but he’s impressive, man. This guy hits the ball really far. He was hitting some irons like 250, 260, and so he’s a guy to keep an uh an eye out for for sure. Um, oh yeah, might look at him for this week. But two guys that really caught my eye and I’m going to do what I did on the PGA tour. I’m going to be taking probably without the John Rom market. Yeah, I think John Rom’s due to win. You know, he lost in the playoff. U looking at Harold Garner III who I had last week. Um without the John Rom market, he’s 33 to1. I think that’s pretty good. I mean, yeah, he’s like 40 to1 regular. So I’m losing seven points and I don’t have Rom involved. I think that’s worth it. And here’s one I think you’ll like, Paul. an oldie but a goldie. Dustin Johnson, the man who’s won every year. The man’s won every year. Liv’s been out. Uh I think for the last three three plus years, he’s won every single year. Um he’s had a couple of good rounds here and there, just not three good rounds. But I’m getting him at 50 to one without John Rom. I think that’s pretty damn good. I mean 50 55 to1 just regular. So, you know, 10 bucks on uh DJ to win 500. I think that’s pretty good. And if he finishes second to John Rom, uh golden. Yeah. So, a couple other guys I was looking at, uh Louisen, I think he’s in the 50 to1 range as well. Uh Joselli Ballister, the young Spanish kid who doesn’t like to use restrooms. um kind of looking at him 40 to1 without Rom. Uh and couple other guys uh maybe even might go back to Brooks Kapka even though he can’t put three rounds together. Um but I think good value at 50 to1. So uh yeah, Paulie, that pretty much uh wraps up this week’s festivities on For the Win. We got to thank everyone for joining us. The loyal fans, the family, the friends, the golf sickos out there. We’ll be back for one more tournament for this uh actually two more tournaments for next week’s um final, I guess, wrap-up golf tournaments for us for this season. Paul, it’s been a pretty exciting uh first year for us on For the Win. This is our first year doing the podcast. You know, we had a couple of speed bumps in the beginning part of the season. Didn’t hit a winner until Houston. Uh we got Min Woo Lee to get us across the line. That was a little stressful, but he got it done. Oh yeah. Uh our second second winner of the year was at the Canadian Open. Ryan Fox the Kiwi wins in a playoff. Another stressful win, but we got across the line. And then our third victor of the year was uh Kurt Kittyama at the 3M Open a couple of weeks ago. Yeah, was kind of stressful maybe in the be middle of the round there, but um kind of a comfortable win at the end there for Kurt. Um needed a par in the final hole, but yeah, I mean three victories on the PGA Tour, Paul, and one victory on the senior’s tour. uh two playoff losses on Live Golf Dallas and two playoff losses on um the Rocket Classic the same week. So, four playoff losses was it was a profitable week. I mean, I hit my eachway with Kazuma, hit some top 20s with the other guys, uh Chris Kirk and um Grayerman. But yeah, so uh pretty much wraps it up. We are going to sign out and catch everyone next week. Later everyone, thanks for joining and we’ll see youall next time people. Peace out. Later.