Build your bankroll by the bay with our PGA Tour betting experts’ 2025 BMW Championship picks & predictions!
Will Rory McIlroy (+750) come back swinging, or does Viktor Hovland (30-1) carve up Caves Valley Golf Club?
Analysts Bo McBrayer & Conor Coughlin share their top PGA Tour bets for the 33rd stop of 2025 on “The 19th Hole (S5 E33).”
⏰ Time Stamps:
00:00 Introduction
06:47 News Niblick: PGA Tour News Update
07:18 Justin Rose Wins 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship
10:50 Tommy Fleetwood & JJ Spaun Squeezed Out of Top
15:52 Caddie Notes: Caves Valley Golf Club Breakdown
22:30 Club Twirls: 2025 BMW Championship Picks & Predictions
23:57 The Favorites
33:50 The Mid-Range
48:05 The Longshots
54:45 The Hat Pick
56:05 Plugs + Outro
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🏌️♂️ Conor Coughlin (https://twitter.com/Cough_DFS)
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome back to the Nineteenth Hole. We are live on Inbetween Media. Make sure you like this video. Subscribe to the whole channel and jingle that bell for notifications. We are sports. We are lifestyle and everything in between. Hope you enjoyed the IBT Classic Golf Tournament at the Fantasy Football Expo in Canton, Ohio over the weekend. Shout out to everybody who put that together, namely our fearless leader, Seth Wilcox. Uh, we’re going to jump right into the second round of the PGA tour playoffs. We’re going to the BMW championship in the crab cake state, crab cakes and football. That’s what we do in Maryland. Apparently I have a lot of friends in Maryland, but we’re going to the BMW at caves Valley golf club in Owings mills, Maryland. We’re fresh off of a Justin Rose playoff victory over JJ posted or JJ spawn. Sorry. Wow. J. Jay Spahn lost to Justin Rose in the playoffs. We have a little heckling to go with Tommy Fleetwood again. Join us right after the drum pier. Oh man. I even forgot to add Connor here, man. Oh man. I’m on a roll today. I’m on a roll today. Connor, you are crushing it. I’m not sure if it was after the jump, the drop. I’m not sure. Well, it was the drum, the drum. Maybe we’ll get, maybe we’ll get, thank you for staying with us through that bumbling intro. Connor Coughlin is here with me. Uh, how did you enjoy the Justin Rose victory? Uh, I think, I think I’m more happy that he beat to beat out JJ spawn. I think, I don’t know. We didn’t have either one of those guys on our cards. So I was thinking to myself, I was like, good for them. Good for them. Not great for me. It was another, another lackluster effort on the betting front for this week. But we got two more left. Yeah, I mean, I think I was all over Scotty. I mean, you kind of remember from last week, even at short odds. This didn’t quite have enough. No, and then, you know, this is typical, but it didn’t bite me in the butt this time. I wasn’t on Tommy this week. I think it’s like the first week, and I don’t know how long that I wasn’t on Tommy, and he was right there. Would have loved to see him get it done, but… shout out to our guy there jamie perog he’s our browns fan uh brown’s expert I think if there’s anybody who’s gone through that much brown’s fandom without uh checking out completely uh kudos to that guy we love jamie on the show uh great guy similar plague over here with the vikings fandom Oh, you guys got you got every fan. There’s only a few fan bases that don’t have a lot of like, oh, woe is me. The Vikings never, never winning a Super Bowl. The Browns just I mean, it’s just been the worst. And then my Cowboys who haven’t won anything since I was nine years old and I was one of two Cowboys fans in my entire hometown. uh I remember super bowl thirty vividly it was thirty years ago and ever since it’s been absolute disappointment and so yeah that’s uh that’s kind of how it goes yeah jamie’s twenty five years connor forty five fifty years of of disappointment gary anderson and yeah every time I bring up gary anderson he cringes a little close to a ball he hadn’t missed all season I remember that game. I loved Robert Smith and Randy Moss and obviously Chris Carter. And was Cunningham the quarterback that year? I believe he was. I think, yeah, I think, I think you’re right. I think you’re right. Cause that was the Moss year, ninety-eight. And you know what the sad thing is, is not, this isn’t a football show, but you know, the sad thing is, is I think, I think we really had all the right pieces maybe to make a run here, but I don’t, I don’t know. I don’t know if it’s McCarthy. I don’t, I don’t know. All the guys that we, yeah. And all the guys we bet on last week were kind of there for a little while. They hung around, they hung around, and they just didn’t have enough to push it over the finish line for us. That was unfortunate to watch. But Justin Rose, man, that guy has been nails this year. And everybody wants to say, oh, he’s forty five years old. They’re like, so what? Like I know guys that are in their seventies and eighties playing the best golf of their life right now. And it’s all about what kind of groove you get into. Justin Rose has gotten into a groove this season where this is the most unflappable guy. He’s got the clutch gene, unlike his countryman, Tommy. uh justin rose knows how to close it out when he’s there he finishes and that was an impressive finish to his final round to get into that playoff with jj spawn and then outlasting him what was it four three three playoff holes well spawn poor jj jj is lost in two playoffs this year now We’re going to have nothing to talk about in the news. I know. What are you drinking tonight, Bo? Eagle Rare, ten. I think we’re in trouble. I think it’s already getting you a little, and I’m on some peer lists, so this should be a good show. Oh, this is going to be fun. It’s the playoffs, guys. I hope you’re enjoying it. Yes, and we did meet Jamie. I met you a couple years ago in Canton. It’s not a very far trip for Jamie there at the Expo, but I met him two years ago at the Expo, and he apparently went back. I was not there in attendance this year at other commitments, but it was great two years ago, and I’m sure it was just as great this year with IBT running the show. It’s an IBT. You tried. We tried doing a football show with me involved for a little while on this network. It did not go well, so my attendance at the Fantasy Football Expo is not what you want or need. Maybe for the golf tournament next year. Maybe. Yeah. All right. It’s time to get to the news. What do you say, Connor? Should we at least cover the news a little bit already? Yeah, we can just continue. Yeah. All right. It was smelling of roses over the weekend at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis, Tennessee. Shout out to our pals over there in West Tennessee listening on the radio tonight. One to one point five FM talking West Tennessee, Memphis. Shout out along that Mississippi River. It’s fun. That’s a fun, fun piece of the country. Great barbecue. And Justin Rose, no stranger to barbecuing the field. How is that performance, especially Sunday when he really needed a strong round to put himself in that position? It’s just crazy. I mean, you already talked about it, but he’s got just that clutch gene. I’m watching him stand over each one of those putts on A-team in the playoff. Those are tough putts, too, tough putts. But you just knew he was going to make it. Yeah, there’s just never a doubt in your mind. I mean, it’s such a confident stroke, such a confident, like, just swagger about him. And, you know, you feel a little bit bad for J.J. Spahn. I mean, you know, a couple of playoffs this year, he had to stare down Rory McIlroy, who was maybe the most confident we’ve seen him in years. At the players, no less. That’s massive. And then he’s staring down the barrel of Justin Rose, who, I mean, darn near puts it in the water in the first playoff hole and comes up and just hits an absolute dog shot falling in the water. What a shot. Like his stance was so awkward. I thought he was going to fall back into the water. because his stance was so awkward and it’s just like find the center of the club face and get it going where it needs to go and that’s what he did it was great touch and the way he kept his base stable through that shot so he didn’t uh mishit it because a mishit on that shot would make it even worse yeah I mean I I absolutely expected him to kind of you know fall forward a little bit push push it right kind of out towards the grandstands um And yeah, he just, I mean, absolute, um, absolute pure shot held at stable. I mean, I, and I really, I mean, I thought that was going to end it too. I mean, spawn dropped a couple of long putts to keep it going. And, uh, my clumsy butt would have definitely fallen in the water. A hundred percent. My truck’s beeper is on right now. Beep, beep. You can’t stop it once it gets going. I do. By the eighteenth hole, especially that being, in essence, the nineteenth hole, you know how many cocktails I’ve had in a round? I wouldn’t have been able to set up behind the ball. I’d have fallen in just setting up. We’re going to address the ball, practice swing, and I’m wet. But, yeah, I think… I think it was a good playoff. I think it was entertaining enough. I mean, I got to say, I really I’m not a massive fan of either guy involved. So I was pretty indifferent. I felt always nice to see JJ Spahn take a break from wandering Middle Earth to come and compete in a tournament. So. that’s so true he just looked like a hobbit I’ve seen the guy in person and he it’s not it’s not uh not a knock it’s just like it is what it is the dude’s a short stocky guy with a lot of like he’s got the skin for it the hair yeah I I get it and if he’s got hairy oversized feet then it would make even more sense I mean, the facial hair is any indicator. I’m thinking it’s he might not be a hobbit, but he might also he might be a hard foot. All right. Tommy and JJ JJ, we talked about a little bit kind of finding a real groove automatically qualifies for the Ryder Cup now. congratulations to JJ spawn. What a crazy season he’s had hitting a different gear than he’s ever found in his entire golfing career. Uh, it’s been a really good season for JJ and that’s an honor to click in and not have to worry about Keegan Bradley picking you for the team. He’s on the team right now. And even though he lost in that playoff, he’s well in position to to make a run at the first at the bmw and of course he’s very near automatic qualifier status for the tour championship with his season uh but tommy fleetwood my goodness man sixty four sixty five start four shot lead we’re thinking oh tommy if he’s gonna win a la car uh cameron young he’s gonna have to run away with it a la cameron young and he was in position to do exactly that with a sixty four sixty five start and he gave it back. He only went one under on Saturday and then completely flat lined on Sunday, especially after he made a couple birdies on twelve and thirteen in the rest of the round. I was thinking, oh, Tommy should win this thing that he’s right there tied for the lead. He even was outright up by one shot and he gets a seventeen and double and bogeys it, but loses two shots to JJ Spahn in that swing. It and Rose as well as two shot swing on seventeen. I was devastating for for Tommy Fleetwood. And then on eighteen, he was just all over the place trying to be aggressive and give himself one final chance to crack fifteen under get into that playoff. And he bungled that hole to. But the story of Tommy Fleetwood is the same story every stinking time. He is snake bit. He just gets it in his head. You could tell he was nervous. You could tell he wasn’t sitting straight over the ball like he was nervous. He was he was folding right before our very eyes. And that’s not the first time this has happened. Yep, I completely agree. And I I don’t know if what happens with him when he gets some kind of a lead is that he tries to play just like. steady golf I don’t I don’t know what it is and you just like there’s something that changes dynamically the minute he gets right and you and you can you can call it nerves and choking and but I don’t think that’s what it is in the third round where he shot a as well I think you know I think the fourth round sure it’s nerves he kind of choked coming down the stretch the third round was like he was supposed to be coasting by continuing to make birdies and keeping pace with the rest of the field when you shoot sixty nine, you’re losing shots to the field because the average scoring was lower than that on that day. And on Sunday, more of the same. You lose. If you gain three, four shots on the field over your first two rounds, you still have to keep at least maintain that level. Don’t lose ground. And he lost ground on Saturday and then gave it up completely on Sunday. Yeah, I mean, I think I’m just trying to do rough math, but I’d say the top ten after round three I mean I think the average was like sixty four sixty four and a half yeah something like that sixty nine’s bad like he gave up his he gave him his cushion on one day yeah it’s just it’s unfortunate I I I think I think tommy fleetwood’s a great guy I think uh yeah I can’t imagine the immense amount of pressure that he’s under anytime he’s even sniffing the lead um and so yeah you go again as probably was singing up here we go again He’s got the right attitude for handling failure or coming up short at least that much. I wouldn’t call a runner-up finish a failure or a top five a failure by any stretch. He still made over a million dollars, and he’s still in the top five in the FedEx Cup. So he’s pretty much locked into next week as well, no matter what happens this week. Tommy Fleetwood’s still a force, even though he’s not winning anything. He’s always there. And I, I mean, it’s, it’s a hot take, but I, I just, I have this feeling that at the tour championship, I just, I just think, I think maybe we got a shot with Tommy there. I think I like him. I do like him at Eastlake. But I still probably, I don’t think I’ve bet on Tommy Fleetwood to win outright since twenty twenty three. Well, you know, I have multiple times this year. Yes. And and how’s that going for you? Well, we’ll just say at this point, I think I’d have to bet a million dollars at whatever short odds we get him at. To catch a break. Just to even out. I’m pulling for him. I don’t think this week’s going to be anything monumental, but Eastlake, I really think we’re going to see some fireworks with Tommy. I really do. I agree. All right. Let’s talk about this golf course. So we saw it four years ago at this rotating, uh, BMW championship Rota. Uh, but let’s, let’s have a little poetry, a little, little snap poetry with our guy, Connor Coughlin about caves Valley and Owings mills, Maryland. All right, Connor, take it away. One of these days, I’m going to get you to stop hyping this so much. All four cents. Caves Valley Golf Course, Owings Mills, Maryland, par-seventy-two, yardage is seventy-five hundred and forty-two. Fairways are bent. Greens are bent. The tournament was last held here in twenty-twenty-one. There have been some minor additions made in the way of bunkering and narrowing of typical landing areas. And some things have done to make some of the approach shots easier. uh, look a little more daunting, but really, truly nothing monumental has changed. Um, this course is on the longer side, uh, even with some of these challenging looks, I do think we are going to get some, uh, favor towards the bombers. Um, really, really want bombers with accuracy though. There is some, there is some trouble left, right? Uh, some of the misses here are not great. Um, But they should be able to fly a lot of these pinched points. The shorter hitters are going to have to contend with them a bit more, but there’s quite a few looks that people like Rory McIlroy are going to be able to fly no problem. So you do additions, you pinch the fairways in, it’s not going to make near the difference that maybe one would think. So the front nine is likely going to play a little more difficult. It’s tree-lined. It’s got a little more dangerous kind of terrain, especially on some of the left sides of the fairway, some pretty severe drop-offs into wooded areas. So I would look for the front nine to be a little bit tougher. The back nine is way, way, way more open, but incorporates a ton of water. There’s water hazards on five of the nine holes. So that’s something to think about. The rough has grown up here, but the fairways are still gonna be a little bit on the generous side. Green complexes are tricky. They’re gonna definitely be fast, especially with the weather, the way it’s gonna be. They’re definitely more wide than they are deep in most instances, especially when you look at the way the par threes are laid out. So that imposes- Long par threes. Yeah, they’re longer for sure. There’s two really long ones. Yeah. And then there’s the, there’s a par three and I think it’s the fourth hole. It’s third or fourth hole. I can’t remember now off the top of my head. The third is one. And that one’s long. It’s also got kind of a false, almost like a false front to the left side of the green that actually drain like funnels towards the water that’s right there. And there’s very, very little green over there to play with before you start sloping into the water. So I think that’s a pretty tricky hole. Really probably going to see a lot of guys trying to play kind of a cut coming in over the water. So any any left pin position there is going to be pretty tricky for a lot of these guys. I’m going to update you on the scorecard here. Official scorecard this year is a par seventy at seventy six. Oh, one. So it’s longer by a little bit, and they’ve changed the sixth hole. No, sorry, not the sixth hole. The second hole, which was a par five, is now a five hundred twenty five yard par four. And hole number fourteen was a short par five. Now it’s a four sixty nine par four. So par seventy seventy six one changes the scorecard, but not the scoring. So you’re still looking at rounds of sixty four, sixty five around here. Twenty five under par is not unheard of. And it’s twenty seven in twenty twenty one. And so I think that was a part of me, too. Then if you drop it down to a part seventy, I think you’re right on the money. Twenty five ish. Yeah. And I think that twenty five under par is it’s not going to be twenty seven again like it was when Cantlin DeChambeau lit this place up. But there were also seven golfers under par for the tournament. That’s that’s a that’s a birdie fest, folks. There’s that’s the Detroit Golf Classic. That’s your that’s your John Deere classic. That’s premium scoring conditions on this golf course just because they change how many strokes as par doesn’t make this any more difficult. No, and I really don’t think it is. I mean, honestly, like some of the some of the stuff I talked about, it’s a little tricked up. But I mean, as long as you as long as you’re accurate off the tee, you got a fair amount of distance and you look good on approach. There’s the ball strikers course for sure. Yeah, I think I think more so than previous weeks. I think I think a lot hinges on the off the tee. Like I put a lot of weighting into strokes gained off the tee this week. Me too. And I added driving distance because that really makes a difference here. Yep, for sure. And then like the left and right miss percentages, things like that, like. I looked a lot, a lot into off the tee game here. Um, you know, a lot of your usual suspects are, um, going to fall into the same category on approach where they’re in that elite tier, but, um, the driving metrics really do kind of separate some of those guys out a little bit. So, um, yeah, I think that’s about all I know about this place. I mean, I think, I think it’s a good watch. I think there’s probably going to be a fair little bit amount of drama, um, get some guys on the bubble trying to get into next week. So, Yeah, this is an Atlantic coast special course. This is, it’s completely bent grass. It’s, it’s going to be hot and humid. Uh, it’s a Tom Fazio, which just means it’s a really straightforward, basic design and just challenges you to hit good shots. And on this course four years ago, lots of guys hit a lot of good shots and they lit this place up and it was lift clean in place. They were playing the ball up, uh, that week because of the rainfall, uh, which made the course a little easier, but. it’s not going to be that much tougher this year, maybe two to three strokes difference, more difficult at most. This is still going to be a birdie fest with a lot of great players coming in extremely hot. They were going to bet on. Wait, what do you say, Connor? Love where your head’s at. Let’s get it. Ooh, yeah. Yeah. That is wild. That is wild. But you, but the update to the pars, the par seventy. Yeah. I wonder when they updated that officially because like literally I checked it this afternoon. It was seventy two. Yeah, and this morning I heard that from Pat Smorris. I didn’t think to ask him where he got that information because everything I saw was the same as last time, but it was a few more yards. And then when he said that, I looked it up. I found a source it was official pga tour source where they updated the official scorecard and it was uh exactly what it what pat said so I don’t know where he got it he got it earlier than everybody else and so yeah it I mean it doesn’t change much other than I think we’re going to be even more leaning into ball strikers uh top of the board the best boss two ball strikers on planet earth scotty scheffler rory mcelroy uh The problem with Scheffler is just his odds again, plus two thirty. The sky is as good as it gets off the tee and on approach. So are we expecting Scotty to be there again? Top five lock? Absolutely. No doubt in my mind. But I think at face value, I’d rather bet on Rory McIlroy plus seven hundred because he’s got the distance advantage over Scotty and his approach game has been just about as good as Scotty’s over the last two months. he’s uh he’s actually slipped a little too he’s up to plus seven fifty now as well so that’s lovely yeah so I I’m with you like I think scotty I think scotty will definitely be right there again but I don’t know it’s a course that requires solid iron play and accuracy off the t check and oh my god check yes that’s that’s scotty scheffler Yeah, and again, number one player in the world. Statistically, number one player in the world as well. Number one in the model. Number one easily in the model. But yeah, do I think that he’s bordering on three times better than Rory McIlroy in terms of a value bet here? No, I don’t. No, no, no, no, no, not close. Not even close to that. That’s why we’re betting on value here. And we’re going to get a little bang for our buck because I think Rory has more upside hits. can Rory go twenty seven under to match Patrick Antley and Bryson Shambo? Absolutely. I really haven’t seen Scotty in a horse race like that. Honestly, he’s he’s very good. And his advantage increases on as the courses get more difficult on easy courses. It’s much more equalized to the field. And to that point, too, anytime that Scotty, even this past weekend, was was kind of an example of that. Anytime that he is in any kind of a horse race, He just kind of stays put. I mean, it typically he’s going to get outpaced by somebody if it’s if it’s neck and neck. It really seems like he presses more where he’s naturally not that aggressive. But when he’s not aggressive, he just hits better quality shots and he goes lower. But when he knows he has to go low to keep pace, he presses harder. And when he actually feels like he’s getting more aggressive, that’s when we see the mistakes that he made in Memphis. Even though he finished top five, what killed him from having a chance to win was just the simple mistakes where he was a little bit too aggressive and didn’t think about how much that ball was not going to spin or roll out on a longer iron shot. And his distance control was as bad as I’ve seen it all season because that’s usually what he’s the tippy top elite at. Yeah, I mean, he can hit it to a spot without any question. But to your point, it seems like when that – It seems like he’s just easygoing, loving every second, no big deal if I win or lose when he’s absolutely just going away. What does that mean with the guy leaning forward in his chair with the video game controller? He’s got to get serious. It’s fun to watch guys who naturally make a lot of birdies just like Scotty does when the courses aren’t quite as difficult. I love the leveling of the playing field that this course is going to provide because again, seven players four years ago were at twenty under par or better, including the two guys who duked it out in a six hole playoff. Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Cantley with Cantley finally outlasting him. Uh, My next favorite guy is not down. He’s down a little bit longer. Do you have anybody else you’re betting on in that kind of ten to fifteen, twenty range? Not on the card yet, but I was actually kind of surprised when I ran that driver centric model that I sent over to you at how how well Xander rated out. Yeah, he’s number three, number three in mind. And so I’m surprising, but also that that could be something we look at look a little deeper into. And I certainly think if I’m going to bet Xander this year, this would be the spot I would do it in. Yeah, because a pure driver of the golf ball like he is with his approach game as solid as it is. Xander’s the guy with no holes in his game. he might not be elite in more than a couple this year because he’s kind of slacked off in certain areas at times especially with the injury to start the season and then just kind of being up and down throughout the season after that uh zander though he rates out really well in my model it’s it’s number three it’s it’s sexy it’s scotty rory zander keegan which is surprising but yeah he can pop for me a little bit too I don’t hate it. I think Xander, I’d have a buy recommendation out there. Just in transparency, I haven’t pulled the trigger yet just because I haven’t bet him all year. It’s worked out for me. This is a spot where it is looking like a really good situation for him. Statistically, even with the lackluster finishes, he’s still rating out really, really well. I I likely will pull the trigger on this pretty quick. I got FOMO creeping in now. I’m like the one time I’m thinking Xander and I don’t pull the trigger. Yeah, and I want to like JT at twenty two to one. I’d really do. but his off the tee game has been dreadful this year and everything else is so nice. I’m looking at JT right here at number eight in my model and he’d be so much higher if he wasn’t forty-sixth in strokes gained off the tee and thirty-first in bogey avoidance. Like he’s just dying off the tee and then his putting has suffered his thirty-fifth in this field and putting on bent. I’m not loving the ancillary stats but like there’s certain things he’s amazing at, like in that approach bucket from one to seventy five to two hundred number one in this field. So if he can somehow put the ball in the fairway, this guy is a lock to be up there in the top five. It’s just for me, it’s just the glaring weaknesses he’s had all season are what we need him to be great at this week. So I got him. I got him at twenty five to one. He’s down to twenty two to one in the I get in transparency. I got him at twenty five to one this morning. So he’s three points. I don’t hate that as much because it removes a little bit of the the uneasy feeling that that’s a little short for a guy who doesn’t really fit this golf course that well. um but one guy who does is our favorite swede ludwig oberg hold it because there is one thing I want to say about jt okay so so your point your point is valid with the off the t game most of the season but what I think is interesting is over the last four starts he’s actually gained an average of one point two off the t so that’s coming around the approach game has been flat which is the part that I’m gambling on with him this week yeah then he finds it back again yeah and then when you look at the putter too this was really interesting is last week at the saint jude uh was the first time in two four six eight ten rounds that he lost strokes putting he’s actually been he’s actually been averaging two point eight strokes game uh putting uh in his last ten starts so um it’s kind of wild to think about, but if the putter had been there last week and the approach game had even been like to his average. Yeah. And we know JT is a solid birdie maker regardless. He’s top ten in birdie or better percentage every time. So it’s food for thought again. I already have it. Like I said, twenty two is slightly shorter than I want. I’m with you. I kind of like Oberg here. So let you talk about Oberg. Oberg’s just such a great iron player, and he’s accurate off the tee when it requires it, and he does have good length. I just think that ball striker’s paradise here at Caves Valley, it really favors those accurate iron players in the mid to one seventy five to two hundred your mid irons. Ludwig’s just as strong as it gets in that category. We don’t really have to worry about as much of a scrambling ability in a short game that have really let him down the season, which at Caves Valley, it’s not as important to to worry about losing strokes by missing an iron shot. But he’s less likely to miss iron shots anyway than the rest of this field. He’s really coming around ball striking. He kind of had a really bad stretch on approach, and he’s been cracking out of that the last two events. So I just love it. Twenty five to one for a guy with all that firepower on a golf course that’s going to give up a lot of birdies. It’s just it makes a lot of sense. Yeah, I I’m I’m with you on him. I like him here. I think I think the course is forgiving where he needs it to be. I do. I do get a little bit. I’m a little worried on some of the shorter approach shots, especially the ones around water. He he might be the next willow branch like EBR. But I do like him here. He’s coming into good form. He’s actually jumped almost fifteen spots in my modeling week on week. So there’s some game that’s starting to come back into form. And I think when you look at this upper echelon here, I mean, twenty two or twenty five, depending on if you’re smart like Bo or dumb like me, I think is still a pretty good number on them. So it’s solid. All right. I like Victor Hovland at thirty five to one. But I want you to talk me into Cam Young because I’m teetering on the edge. He is terrible in my model, but I just think that the way he’s striking the ball right now. And again, just like Ludwig Oberg doesn’t really have to worry about losing shots around these greens. That’s that’s that’s the same case you make for Cam Young. But thirty to one is a little short for my liking, which is why I’m on Victor. you can’t first off you’re not allowed to jump on my victor hovland train naysayer like I’ve been on him for few weeks now I know we both like him this week so it’s I don’t want you to get mad about co-liking victor this week I know I like victor this week what do you I know I know that’s what I’m saying is like don’t don’t fault me for doing the same thing I’m co-signing your victor take but I want to I want to believe in cam young I want to believe in his last two starts versus what he’s put forth the rest of the season before So, yeah, so the things that I kind of looked at with Cam Young, and it is a little, I don’t want to call it recency bias because it’s, you know, that’s the name of our game here, right? Exactly. He’s hot right now. He’s super hot right now. But the huge things I looked at with Cam Young are just the ridiculous amounts of strokes he’s gained off the tee in the last two starts. He went from thirty-fifth to eleventh and off the tee in the last two weeks. And if you look at the St. Jude, I mean, I didn’t hear his name a whole lot, but he finished fifth and he gained six and a half strokes up the tee and three and a half strokes on approach. He also, our boy is striping the ball right now. Our boy continued putting too. He gained one and a half strokes putting, which is not necessarily the typical thing when he gets the rest of his game going. Guess where he ranked in strokes gained putting on bent in my model. I would guess higher than any other surface, but I’m still not guessing it’s great. It’s number twelve. He’s twelfth in putting on bent in the last twenty four rounds in this field. That should scare everyone because this guy can go off. and like I said like that’s why I knew it was going to be on bent bent is by far his best putting surface and he’s like it’s not even close I mean it is yeah it’s it’s insanely favorable for cam young and the way he’s striping it right now like on approach he’s been so nasty, just absolutely sticking darts in there. And of course he lit it up, destroyed the field two weeks ago. Um, this is another, another golf course. It’s going to favor his style of play. He’s got his back too, man. Like, I think we’re going to start to see cam young actually win some golf tournaments. Like the, the starting with this one, maybe three, I’m on the edge. If he slips a I will have to stamp it. Um, Which I think is, I’m trying to remember. Yeah, no, I got him at thirty. I was thinking that I got thirty. Yeah. Which is what you got at thirty five. Yeah. Victor and you and I are same on Victor at thirty five to one. That’s just this course is just perfect for my for our friend, our Norwegian friend, Victor. because that sweet baby angel loves iron play and he is as good as it gets on approach on these types of golf courses he shoots to the top on courses over seventy four hundred yards this guy is a stripe show with the mid and long irons there’s going to be sixty percent of the approach shots with longer than a seven iron, that’s, that’s going to be a huge determining factor in who makes enough gains, enough strokes on the field to really make some damage on the scoreboard. Uh, Victor Hovland is that guy. yeah um uh no questions uh no objections from this side uh I I’ve loved him for weeks so I will absolutely I love him so much hey and you know neither neither one of us love him as much as linda lyons does that’s very true she likely won’t watch this but if she does shout out linda uh because yeah she’s loved victor longer and harder than everybody else in the world combined some would say the hardest Yes, easily. No doubt. She probably likes him more than his own family. He’s a pretty lovable guy. He is. So, yeah, I got another guy at thirty five that I really like here. Chris got her up. Also, I don’t know. I don’t know, Jim. So so let me sell you on Chris got her up just a little bit outside of the fact that, you know, he’s he’s won this year. It’s been quite some time since he missed a cut. Not that that matters here, but he had what I would say would be a not good week last week. But prior to that, man, he has been absolutely tearing it up. If you look at going back to the U.S. Open, again, a guy that is gaining three and a half strokes off the tee in the last six starts. And then you look at his approach game, which is not like a hallmark of his game. But up until last week, he had been gaining an average of a stroke and a half on approach. The putter came to life. You’re going back to kind of the John Deere, stayed hot all the way until last week. And, you know, we got her up, um, three hundred and twenty two yards off the tee. Um, he’s definitely long third longest in the field. Driving accuracy sometimes is cause for concern. But like I said, he’s finding a way to get it done because he’s gaining a ton of strokes off the tee. I think he’s going to have a little wider, uh, wider fairways to look at here. Um, I know it’s a short number for got her up, but like he. Oh, short. It is incredibly short. God, I love got her up so much because he’s such a dynamo off the tee. Like he’s a weapon off the tee. And his approach game is so much improved in the last few weeks. He’s still terrible on approach relative to the field in the last twenty four rounds. And his putting is towards the bottom on bent grass. So I am afraid for him at thirty five to one. It scares the death out of me. I will not be touching him at that price. But if he slips. I will have to look at him because we love wide bodied burly men as golfers. And Chris got her up as one of those dudes that we just can’t help but root for. Thirty five to one. My my friend is just too short. It’s not if you think he’s going to win. And I think he’s got a chance. Oh, just don’t know. Yeah, I’ve got one more guy at fifty five. It’s Harry Hall. Then we can see. Yeah, but we got to talk about my guy right here in the bottom. I’m sorry. That’s okay. Because, you know, we got to shout him out because he’s my boy. Kirk Kitayama, fifty to one. And let’s see what we need. A guy who’s great off the tee. Check driving distance. Check. He’s a great long and mid iron player. Check and makes sense. Just starting this year. He’s a birdie making machine. Apparently he went from a grinder only kind of guy to top five and birdie or better percentage of fifty to one ladder that Kirk Kitayama and shout out NorCal. No? You’re going Harry Hall. I’m just looking. Objectively, I like Goddard up better than Kitayama, but that’s not the same odds bracket. That’s a fifteen difference. Yeah, but I’m just saying my bankroll is depleted, so I’m just kind of looking at it like… Ouch. No, so I love everything you’re saying. Kitayama’s in great form. I worry about him, though, because… if any part of his game falls out of lockstep here, I mean, he can train rec with the best of them and yeah. So I don’t know. He is playing great golf. That’s a good number on him. He, The birdie making part that you brought up is always a concern for us lately. That hasn’t been the case. So if he can continue making birdies by the truckload, he could actually compete at twenty five under or better. That would be the part that would scare me with him is the likelihood that that continues. Yeah, he’s been doing it. Even without a putter most of the season, he’s been making tons of birdies. That’s the kind of nuclear option that Krikadiyama has become this season. His win a few weeks ago really confirmed his ability to go low with the guys where he would otherwise not really be competitive in those birdie fests. And this year it’s been different. Yeah, I think… man might have to go steal a twenty out of my wife’s wallet um it’s not stealing if you’re married say hey I’m taking twenty dollars to spend on my norcal guy kirk kiriyama because he’s a winner yeah I’ll think on that one um I mean harry hall I i I anticipate a bounce back here. He really has struggled off the tee for a while now. I think this is one of the better opportunities he’s got to get right. The approach game we know can be very hot. The putter is ridiculous. He’s just an amazing putter in a short game when he needs it. And then you talk about guys that make birdies by the truckload. I mean, Harry Hall’s been doing it pretty much since he was able to walk, you know, his fifth in this field over the last thirty six rounds and birdie or better rate. And this is this is the best of the best here coming down to the wire. So, I mean, these are guys that absolutely pepper birdies and he’s right there in the ring boxing with him. So. I really like Harry Hall at fifty five to one. I think if I think if I hadn’t already bet it and I had to decide between him and Kitty Yama, I’d probably go Harry Hall there on if you’re between bets. Oh, can I have a rebuttal? Because Harry Hall is he rated out super well on my first model. And then I decided to curiously filter for courses over seventy four hundred yards. And Harry Hall’s numbers plummeted. This guy is not capable of doing the same things he does to the shorter courses. When the courses get long like this, Harry Hall struggles on approach. He really does. And he’s really not that potent off the tee to really gain strokes on longer courses. on longer golf courses. It’s just not his game. There was the one stark contrast I found in my modeling was the first one was basically as bland as I could make it. And then Harry Hall, of course, pops in birdie or better percentage and putting and all that fun stuff that we’re filtering for. But then I hit that filter and it scared me off of him. I ran for the hills. Yeah, I think… I don’t know if I completely agree with you. We don’t need to beat the dead horse. He’s longer than what you would expect. The longer approach metrics are a little bit tougher. They’re bad. They’re real bad, dude. Yeah, but there are some courses that you could find some contrast to that statement, too. Yeah. Within this season. So I think the problem with Harry Hall, honestly, is the volatility that we’re seeing at the Wyndham and the St. Jude, where the ball striking goes a little bit cold. And that’s more the volatility of Harry Hall. Yeah. ball striking between the two him and Kitayama probably a pretty close close race the putter it’s just not even definitely obviously yeah stupid good that’s like elite versus struggling right so I don’t know they’re both good bets you know you’re either team Bo this week or your team Connor I mean that’s that’s the and we both like both guys it’s just we have our preferences this week I might do it. I know. It’s really tempting because he’s really good. And NorCal’s on a hot one right now. Fluffy Hernandez, my guy from NorCal. Dude, absolute demolition on Saturday night. Everybody’s like, oh, Roman Deleuze is so strong and so fast and so powerful. My dude bullied this man for three rounds. And then the fourth round, he got mad at roman for cheating he was grabbing the fence and grabbing his glove and even pointing out to the ref roman lost a point in that fourth round and fluffy got so ticked off about him cheating that he just decided to grab his neck and drag him to the middle of the octagon by his neck while he’s tapping out and herb dean has to tell him to drop him and he just drops him It was just the coldest, most savage way to win a fight. And I just love every minute because that’s my guy. That is my friend doing that to another grown man that everybody thought was stronger and more powerful. I was just like, well, that was too easy. Never doubted Fluffy for a second. I was all in on Fluffy. Dude, he blew the man a kiss after smiling through a glancing punch. unreal stuff. Like that’s a showman. We should, you should have him on here sometime. Not that it’s golf related. It’d just be fun to talk to him. Oh, he’d, he’d be a hoot. We’d get, we’d have to get the bleeper going though. Cause he, he likes the F bombs. Maybe we can do a one-off show and just talk to him. I’ll talk to I talk to him all the time well I don’t um long shots it’s uh taylor pandreth man what a what a hot way to go this guy is just ball striking is on point the last two months uh and he’s gotten a hot putter and we like hot putters in this event uh taylor pandreth traditionally an awful putter just awful And this last three, four weeks, he’s been just dropping stuff. He’s making putts. He’s seeing the ball go in, and he’s got confidence with the flat stick. And so in sixty five to one, that is that’s sexy for how how much value is there for a guy with all the upside that you need to win this event from this tier loves back grass. Yeah, he is a bent magician. Yeah, I love Pendereth. Love the driving. I mean, the guy can crush the ball. Off the tee has been really good last thirty six rounds. Putter has been awesome. He’s long top seventh and distance. Yeah, this is a good this good setup for him here. It is. It’s I think if Goddard was in this range, I would be all over him and Pendereth. I handicapped Goddard up closer to fifty fifty five, honestly. And that’s why I was so blown away by the thirty five number that it scared me away. But when it came to Pendrith, it was too easy because he’s that same powerful guy off the tee that gained so many strokes off the tee. And then he’s just dead steam ahead at attacking pins because of how good off the tee he is. This Pendrith guy has got so much upside. Yeah, I’m right there with you. Definitely on the card. Our next guy, we’re both the same, although you got him at a way better number than I did. Sweet. I feel bad for you, but Sam Stevens is catching so much steam right now. It is for good reason. This guy is hot right now. This guy is playing out of his mind. in like his form is as sharp as it’s ever been in his entire life and entering the playoffs so sam stevens look out look out this guy is a superb ball striker superb birdie maker and recently over the last three four weeks a superb putter on bent grass I will say he, um, can we say defecate on this channel? Cause yeah, he may have done that all over his, um, his bed, uh, last week. I mean, it’s a bad performance last week, but I’m, I’m going back to him to your point. Haven’t having a lot of, uh, tell signs here coming in, especially when you look at what he did, uh, at the three M um, you know, that was probably the last like standout performance of the last three starts, but seven point eight strokes game putting three point five around the green five point two from T to green second. He’s striping it right now. This guy is hot. Yeah. And that’s I mean, for you at one ten I mean that’s that’s a I think that’s a really good value ninety is a little shorter than I wanted but he rated out so well for me that I still pulled the trigger on it so he’s he’s even better on longer golf courses because his long iron and mid iron play is excellent excellent um I I’m not with you on johnny vegas I’m sorry So I know he’s great off the tee, but the dude just, the dude just doesn’t show up on these courses for as much distance advantage as he gets being a bomber among the tippy top level of bombers. He scares me on these longer golf courses because his mid iron game is terrible. Like in his putter, you don’t know from one week to the next, if he’s going to be flat or lose ten strokes on the greens. Yeah, with Johnny Vegas, though, he’s at a hundred and ten to one. Like what I was looking at with him is just more like, OK, what’s what’s a long shot that has a semi similar version of what I’m looking for here? And when Vegas gets it going, it’s almost entirely off the tee. And I think, like I said with this course, you’re going to have a few more opportunities to be a little bit wayward. And he’s not terribly bad off the tee to begin with, and he bombs the ball. I have no complaints about his off the tee game. It’s like, there’s, there’s no risk to it either. So that off the tee game should shine here. And then I looked at like his greens and regulation game. Like he’s actually been hitting greens at a really good pace over the last like thirty six, forty two rounds. Like it just he’s number eight field. Now, granted, it’s not filtered down the way that you, you know, you absolutely boil it down to me. It’s just a general view of what’s going on to be eighth in this field and sticking the ball close on the green and know I think I think johnny vegas at one ten I mean why not I mean it there’s I wouldn’t say that definitely a wild card I mean taylor pendereth is a better golfer than johnny vegas like I just wouldn’t they’re same tier I would say the same player basically I uh pendereth has just found a hotter putter recently than johnny has yeah and you look at the odds I mean I’m getting like legitimately double the odds for vegas it’s true And another guy in the same ilk, Ryan Fox, your Kiwi friend, he’s the bomber. He loves gaining strokes off the tee. And when his approach game is sharp, he’s a dangerous, dangerous player who can go really low. Ryan Fox, multiple-time winner this year because he goes low where a lot of people just can’t. Most of this field can’t go as low as Ryan Fox can. Yeah. I mean, you look at the Canadian open, that performance was so ridiculous. I mean, how well he played. It was just lights out. And that’s, that’s as hot as, I mean, he can get that hot. And like, I wouldn’t, I wouldn’t probably tell you that I thought Ryan Fox was a good putter, but going back to the Memorial all the way to current Ryan Fox is like absolutely killing it with the flat stick. Um, So I don’t know. Ryan Fox, again, same type of player as guys that we’re getting half the odds of. I was looking for a bomber that can get hot, and that’s Ryan Fox. Makes sense. It really does make sense. Well, we got the hat pick ready. Well, we got the hat. Do I have the numbers in it? I do. Hat, hat, hat, hat, hat. The hat has selected… I don’t believe that. Number five. Number five. Hideki Matsuyama. Interesting. We didn’t talk about Hideki because his odds were awful. And his off the tee game has been awful. But everything else, honestly, has been pretty good. Kurt Kitayama is who the hat has selected. Now you’re compelled. Borderline coerced by the show to bet on Kurt Kitayama this week, Connor. It’s destiny. I will say that I moved Kurt Kitayama up one because Sepp Straka withdrew. By default. Chris got her up was number five. Kitayama was number six. So ipso facto. Yeah, I get it. Well, that makes sense. Okay. Winning score, and who will it be? Twenty-five and roars, baby. Twenty-four and roars. All right. Join us next week for the last show of the season, the Tour Championship from Eastlake Golf Club in Atlanta. See ya.
