You can read Liam Williams’ Power Rankings for the BMW Championship at bet365 News.
Course Guide: We return to Caves Valley Golf Club which the PGA Tour visited for the BMW Championship back in 2021. It’s a Tom Fazio design which has hosted a few high profile professional events. The 2002 Senior U.S. Open, on the LPGA in 2014 it hosted the International Crown team event, and in 2017 hosted the Constellation Senior Players Championship on the Champions Tour, won by Scott McCarron.
Played as a 7,542 yard, Par 72 in 2021, the course has since had a makeover and re-routing taking overall yardage to 7,601 yards (up 59 yards), with a couple of the par-5s becoming long par-4s, making this week’s test a Par 70.
Caves Valley Golf Club, Owings Mills, Maryland: Designer: Tom Fazio, 1991 with Logan Fazio 2020 renovation & 2023 renovation; Course Type: Mid-Score, Long; Par: 70; Length: 7,601 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-Play: 7; Acres of Fairway: 28; Fairways: Penncross Bentgrass; Rough: Tall Fescue, Kentucky Bluegrass and Perennial Ryegrass 3″; Greens: 5,200 sq.ft average featuring Pure Distinction Bentgrass; Stimpmeter: 12.5ft.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
2021: 69.20 (-2.80), Rank 50 of 51 courses
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Caves Valley Golf Club and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:
Caves Valley: 35-40 yards.
TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
Sedgefield: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:26 325:23; 350:22.
TPC Twin Cities: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:38; 300:31; 325:30; 350:36.
Hurstbourne CC: 25-30 yards at 300 yards.
TPC Deere Run: 250 yards from tee: 41 yards wide; 275:40; 300:36 325:33; 350:30.
Detroit Golf Club: 250 yards from tee: 34 yards wide; 275:34; 300:35 325:34; 350:33.
TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:36; 300:29; 325:29; 350:28.
Oakmont: 18-28 yards at 300 yards
TPC Toronto: 35-37 yards at 300 yards.
Muirfield Village: 24-25 yards at 300 yards.
Colonial: 25-30 yards at 300 yards.
Quail Hollow: 28-30 yards at 300 yards.
The Dunes Golf and Beach Club: 20 – 25 yards at 300 yards.
Philadelphia Cricket Club: 30-32 yards at 300 yards.
TPC Craig Ranch: 30 – 40 yards at 300 yards.
Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:22; 325:26; 350:22.
Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:29; 325:27; 350:26.
Memorial Park: 30 – 40 yards at 300 yards.
Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Tom Fazio PGA Tour designs and re-designs include:
Tom Fazio
Atunyote GC – Turning Stone Championship 2007-10.
Congaree GC – Palmetto Championship 2021 + CJ Cup 2022.
Conway Farms GC – BMW Championship 2013, 2015, 2017.
Corales GC – Corales Championship
Eagle Point – Wells Fargo Championship 2017.
Raptor Course Greyhawk GC – Fry’s.com Open 2008/09.
Shadow Creek GC – CJ Cup 2020.
The Summit Club – CJ Cup 2021.
Fazio has also had renovation input into:
Riviera Country Club – Genesis Invitational.
Merion – 2013 U.S. Open.
Oakmont – 2016 U.S. Open.
Quail Hollow – 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021 Wells Fargo Championship, 2017 + 2025 PGA Championship.
Seaside Course at Sea Island – RSM Classic
Course Overview: 2023 saw Caves Valley Golf Club receive its biggest ever renovation in its 30-year history, a multimillion-dollar effort aimed at enhancing both playability and turf performance. Nearly all turf including greens, fairways, and tee boxes has been replaced with cutting-edge grass suited for the Mid-Atlantic climate. Greens are still Bentgrass with Tall Fescue, Kentucky Bluegrass rough. PrecisionAire sub-surface systems have also been installed beneath all 18 green complexes.
Course architecture tweaks to make certain holes slightly more challenging—front-side hazards on the 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th and 7th holes plus water hazards brought into play on the 11th and 17th. A subtle dogleg added to the 1st and 2nd holes, the latter typically a par-5 will play as a par-4 stretching up to 525 yards for tournament conditions. Main change of note was on the 1st Hole which in 2021 was a short par-4. For 2025 the hole has been Hole 1 has been lengthened by over 110 yards, the fairway dropped, and the green shifted to the left. The 17th par-3 with the additional water hazard fronting the green has also seen over 50 yards added with a new tee box.
The 12th hole was a 568 yard par-5 in 2021 and that has been switched to a 521 yard par-4 for 2025, making this a Par 70, which now stretches to 7,600 yards.
Other changes worthy of note are that the tees, fairways, and approaches were reinforced for firmness. The rough inside tournament ropes was re-seeded using tall fescue and Kentucky bluegrass to create a more demanding challenge. Fairway widths though remain wide at around 40 yards – considerably more width than last week in Memphis.
BMW Championship Winners: 2024: Keegan Bradley (-12); 2023: Viktor Hovland (-17); 2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14); 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27); 2020: Jon Rahm (-4); 2019: Justin Thomas (-25); 2018: Keegan Bradley(-20); 2017: Marc Leishman (-23); 2016: Dustin Johnson (-23); 2015: Jason Day (-22); 2014: Billy Horschel (-15); 2013: Zach Johnson (-16); 2012: Rory McIlroy (-20); 2011: Justin Rose (-13); 2010: Dustin Johnson (-9).
2021: Patrick Cantlay 66-63-66-66 -27/261
OWGR of BMW Championship Winners: 2024: Bradley 22: 2023: Hovland 5; 2022: Cantlay 4; 2021: Cantlay 10; 2020: Rahm 2; 2019: Thomas 10; 2018: Bradley 66; 2017: Leishman 23.
Datagolf of BMW Championship Winners: 2024: Bradley 47; 2023: Hovland 6; 2022: Cantlay 5; 2021: Cantlay 9.
Caves Valley Lead Score Progression:
2021: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -16; Round 3 -21; Round 4 -27.
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions of BMW Championship winners since 2010:
2024 – Keegan Bradley: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
2023 – Viktor Hovland: Round 1: 18th, Round 2: 13th, Round 3: 5th.
2022 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 13th, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 1st.
2021 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
2020 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 51st, Round 2: 39th, Round 3: 6th.
2019 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 1st.
2018 – Keegan Bradley: Round 1: 12th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 6th.
2017 – Marc Leishman: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
2016 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
2015 – Jason Day: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
2014 – Billy Horschel: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 3rd.
2013 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 4th.
2012 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 3rd.
2011 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
2010 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 2nd.
Shots From the Lead: Below are the shots from the lead during the tournament of BMW Championship winners since 2010:
2024 – Keegan Bradley: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
2023 – Viktor Hovland: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 7 back, Round 3: 3 back.
2022 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
2021 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: level.
2020 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 8 back, Round 2: 7 back, Round 3: 3 back.
2019 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: level, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 6 ahead.
2018 – Keegan Bradley: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 3 back.
2017 – Marc Leishman: Round 1: 2 ahead, Round 2: 3 ahead, Round 3: 5 ahead.
2016 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 3 ahead.
2015 – Jason Day: Round 1: 4 ahead, Round 2: 5 ahead, Round 3: 6 ahead.
2014 – Billy Horschel: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 3 ahead.
2013 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 3 back.
2012 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: level, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 1 back.
2011 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 2 ahead, Round 2: level, Round 3: 4 ahead.
2010 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 back.
Incoming form of BMW Championship winners since 2010:
Keegan Bradley: 59th St Jude/22nd Wyndham/46th 3M Open/MC Open.
Viktor Hovland: 13th St Jude/13th Open/25th Scottish Open/29th Travelers.
Patrick Cantlay: 57th St Jude/2nd Detroit/8th Open/4th Scottish Open.
Patrick Cantlay: 11th Northern Trust/23rd St Jude/MC Open/13th Travelers.
Jon Rahm: 6th Northern Trust/13th PGA/52nd St Jude/1st Memorial.
Justin Thomas: 12th Northern Trust/12th St Jude/11th Open/9th Scottish Open.
Keegan Bradley: 49th Dell/34th Northern Trust/42nd PGA/4th Canadian Open.
Marc Leishman: 3rd Dell Tech/MC Northern Trust/13th PGA/41st Bridgestone.
Dustin Johnson: 8th Deutsche/18th Barclays/MC PGA/2nd Canadian Open.
Jason Day: 12th Deutsche/1st Barclays/1st PGA/12th Bridgestone.
Billy Horschel: 2nd Deutsche/ MC Barclays/47th Wyndham/59th PGA.
Zach Johnson: 27th Deutsche/5th Wyndham/8th PGA/4th Bridgestone.
Rory McIlroy: 1st Deutsche/24th Barclays/1st PGA/5th Bridgestone.
Justin Rose: 68th Boston/6th Barclays/MC PGA/33rd Bridgestone.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Rory McIlroy; 3) Kurt Kitayama; 4) Chris Gotterup; 5) Patrick Cantlay; 6) Xander Schauffele; 7) Ludvig Aberg; 8) Benjamin Griffin; 9) Russell Henley; 10) Matt Fitzpatrick.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
BMW Championship Winning Prices: 2024: Bradley 100/1; 2023: Hovland 18/1; 2022: Cantlay 16/1; 2021: Cantlay 25/1; 2020: Rahm 10/1; 2019: Thomas 16/1; 2018: Bradley 140/1; 2017: Leishman 45/1; 2016: D Johnson 10/1; 2015: Day 15/2; 2014: Horschel 66/1; 2013: Z Johnson 40/1; 2012: McIlroy 7/1; 2011: Rose 66/1; 2010: D Johnson 33/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 34/1; Overall Average: 36/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 42/1; Overall Average: 40/1.
Historical Weather:
2021: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 93. Wind ESE 3-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind NNE 3-6 mph. Play was suspended due to a dangerous weather situation on Friday at 4:32 p.m. and resumed at 6:18 p.m. (1 hour, 46 minutes). Play was suspended due to darkness at 7:40 p.m., with 15 players yet to complete their round. Saturday: Partly Sunny. High of 87. Wind NNE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind ENE 4-8 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Caves Valley GC, Maryland, is here.
Think hot (31-32 degrees Celsius) and still conditions. There’s a less than 50% chance of rain on tournament Wednesday, with the only difference to 2021 being that the course hasn’t seen any rain in August. Watered greens would seem a requirement in this heat, so I expect a high-teens towards -20 being the total required.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Travelers Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Chris Gotterup; 2) Russell Henley / Scottie Scheffler; 4) Ludvig Aberg / Tommy Fleetwood; 6) Brian Harman; 7) Sam Burns; 8) Kurt Kitayama; 9) Justin Rose / J.J. Spaun; 11) Corey Conners / Sam Stevens; 13) Maverick McNealy; 14) Jhonattan Vegas / Cameron Young; 16) Taylor Pendrith; 17) Ryan Gerard; 18) Matt Fitzpatrick; 19) J.T. Poston; 20) Si Woo Kim; 21) Xander Schauffele; 22) Akshay Bhatia / Collin Morikawa / Nick Taylor; 25) Rickie Fowler.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Hideki Matsuyama; 3) Daniel Berger / Kurt Kitayama; 5) Ludvig Aberg / Russell Henley; 7) Akshay Bhatia / Patrick Cantlay; 9) Harris English / Rory McIlroy; 11) Xander Schauffele; 12) Justin Rose; 13) Matt Fitzpatrick; 14) Ben Griffin; 15) J.J. Spaun; 16) Lucas Glover; 17) Tommy Fleetwood / Viktor Hovland / Shane Lowry; 20) Justin Thomas; 21) Denny McCarthy / Jhonattan Vegas; 23) Nick Taylor; 24) Ryan Fox; 25) Ryan Gerard / J.T. Poston.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Keegan Bradley; 2) Matt Fitzpatrick; 3) Harry Hall; 4) Sungjae Im; 5) Robert MacIntyre; 6) Tommy Fleetwood; 7) Lucas Glover / Justin Rose; 9) Rory McIlroy; 10) Justin Thomas; 11) Harris English / Brian Harman; 13) Ben Griffin / Shane Lowry; 15) Hideki Matsuyama; 16) Patrick Cantlay / Xander Schauffele; 18) Jacob Bridgeman / Chris Gotterup / Russell Henley; 21) Sam Stevens; 22) Si Woo Kim / Andrew Novak; 24) Scottie Scheffler; 25) Rickie Fowler.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Justin Rose; 3) Russell Henley; 4) Matt Fitzpatrick / Lucas Glover; 6) Tommy Fleetwood; 7) Kurt Kitayama; 8) Rory McIlroy; 9) Patrick Cantlay / Chris Gotterup; 11) Ludvig Aberg; 12) Harris English / Xander Schauffele; 14) Hideki Matsuyama; 15) Akshay Bhatia; 16) Jhonattan Vegas; 17) J.J. Spaun; 18) Ben Griffin / Brian Harman; 20) Justin Thomas; 21) J.T. Poston; 22) Daniel Berger / Rickie Fowler; 24) Keegan Bradley / Ryan Gerard.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Harry Hall; 3) Justin Rose; 4) Russell Henley; 5) Brian Harman / Scottie Scheffler; 7) Brian Campbell / Justin Thomas; 9) Chris Gotterup / Hideki Matsuyama / Nick Taylor; 12) Denny McCarthy; 13) Harris English; 14) Tommy Fleetwood; 15) Ludvig Aberg / Matt Fitzpatrick / Robert MacIntyre / Cameron Young; 19) Jacob Bridgeman / Andrew Novak; 21) Viktor Hovland; 22) Jason Day; 23) Ben Griffin; 24) Corey Conners / Xander Schauffele.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Rory McIlroy / Scottie Scheffler; 3) Justin Rose; 4) Russell Henley; 5) Matt Fitzpatrick; 6) Tommy Fleetwood; 7) Harry Hall; 8) Harris English / Chris Gotterup / Kurt Kitayama; 11) Hideki Matsuyama; 12) Ludvig Aberg; 13) Brian Harman / Justin Thomas; 15) Xander Schauffele; 16) Ben Griffin; 17) Patrick Cantlay; 18) Akshay Bhatia; 19) J.J. Spaun; 20) Lucas Glover; 21) Corey Conners; 22) Rickie Fowler; 23) Nick Taylor; 24) Robert MacIntyre; 25) Denny McCarthy / Cameron Young.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the winner here at Caves Valley in 2021 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this week:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2021, Patrick Cantlay (-27). SG Off the Tee: 15th, SG Approach: 28th, SG Around the Green: 48th, SG Tee to Green: 28th, SG Putting: 1st.
We’ve only seen one renewal from here and the Strokes Gained numbers were incredible. Across the 15.81 Strokes Gained Total from Patrick Cantlay, 14.58 were with the putter. I’ve never seen numbers like that as it equates to 92% with the putter.
Naturally Bryson DeChambeau (who I was on) also made a play-off with Cantlay and his Strokes Gained numbers were no less unconventional, with 60% of his total coming from the flat stick. He also made over 2 strokes per round with the driver.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Patrick Cantlay here at Caves Valley in 2021 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2021, Patrick Cantlay (-27). 311 yards (17th), 66.1% fairways (33rd), 80.6% greens in regulation (2nd), 57.1 % scrambling (1st), 1.50 putts per GIR (1st).
Let’s take a view from players as to how Caves Valley sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Patrick Cantlay (2021): “It feels like you’re going to make every putt and you’re surprised when you don’t. Sometimes I get in that space, and today for that stretch of holes on the back nine, I definitely got in that space. The greens were a little beat up, but all in all they’re pretty good and they’re that really nice holing pace. They’re like 12 or so, and it feels like you’re going to get all the balls to the hole, but they’re not crazy slippery.
Not a course that has fairways this wide. There’s really no trouble to speak of on this golf course. You can hit it in the rough or a bunker, but there’s no out-of-bounds, there’s basically no hazards. All the fairways are 40 or 50 or 60 yards wide and there’s four par-5s, so guys are going to shoot low scores.
Yeah, it was another day on an easy, soft golf course, so you needed to make a bunch of birdies. I thought I played really well, all in all. I didn’t make too many mistakes. Played solid, didn’t putt as well as I did the first couple days but probably hit it a little better, and I thought it was a good day and I’m in a good spot for tomorrow.”
Bryson DeChambeau (2021): “A lot of putts went in. A lot of things went right. We got a lot of great numbers out of the rough today, and I played my butt off and never thought too much about anything until the last few holes, and I striped a 9-iron on 17, striped a drive, striped a wedge on 18 and just wasn’t able to clutch those putts up.
Oh, for sure, it was one of the better ones of my career. We judged the flier lie perfectly. I hit an 8-iron from 235 or something, 240, maybe it was more than that, I don’t know, but it was downwind, and we just wanted to get to that back little knob where maybe it could feed off where if it goes over I’m still okay. It fed off I think perfectly.
Front nine I played really good. On, what hole was it, 7, I hit one right off the drive and it just didn’t feel right, and from then on just the driver seemed like wasn’t really in tune. But that’s okay. I scraped it around. I started off hot; birdieing 8 after that drive off to the left was pretty special. Then I had a little bit of mud on 12 and tried to play out to the left, the wind caught it, I just missed it a little right.
Hit a great shot on 13, flushed it right at the flag and rode a bit of breeze, got up, and made an unfortunate error there. Then pulled my driver on 14, 15 and 16. Striped one on 18, happy about that, but got to clean up the driver from today.”
Rory McIlroy (2021): “Yeah, I think it lets you hit driver, first and foremost. I think there’s a lot of courses we play nowadays where a lot of fairways pinch in at 300, 310. It doesn’t allow the long hitters to hit driver a lot, last week being a pretty good example of that. Whenever you get a big golf course like this that allows the big hitters to hit driver, that’s usually a big advantage. Yeah, it’s just nice to get driver in your hand and be able to feel like you can let it fly a bit.
So I think if you rewind it back 12 months to this tournament last year at Olympia Fields, that was a little more of a grind. They were able to get the golf course firm, rough was up, and the scoring, it was really tough. Yeah, look, it’s an area of the country here where it does get hot and humid, and bentgrass, it’s not going to have the characteristics that you want to have a really challenging golf course.”
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
2024 – Bradley – Group 12 – 6/66 – 60/1.
2023 – Harman/McIlroy – Groups 11/10 -5/65 – 14/1 & 40/1.
2022 – Bradley – Group 6 – 7/64 – 80/1.
2021 – Burns/McIlroy/Rahm – Groups 8/9/21 -8/64 – 45/1, 33/1 & 14/1.
2020 – Matsuyama – Group 22 – 3/67 – 40/1.
2019 – Kokrak/Thomas – Group 16/Group 7 -7/65 – 55/1 & 20/1.
2018 – McIlroy/Woods – Group 9/Group 2 -8/62 – 22/1 & 33/1.
2017 – Leishman – AM -9/62 – 40/1.
2016 – Castro – AM -7/65.
2015 – Day -10/61.
2014 – McIlroy/Spieth/Woodland -3/67.
2013 – Snedeker -8/63.
2012 – DeLaet/McIlroy/Simpson/Van Pelt -8/64.
2011 – Rose -8/63.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
9 – Rory McIlroy.
7 – Justin Rose.
5 – Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas.
4 – Hideki Matsuyama.
3 – Keegan Bradley, Lucas Glover, Xander Schauffele, Jhonattan Vegas.
2 – Rickie Fowler, Brian Harman, J.T. Poston.
1 – Daniel Berger, Sam Burns, Brian Campbell, Wyndham Clark, Ben Griffin, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Michael Kim, Kurt Kitayama, Collin Morikawa, Taylor Pendrith.
The BMW Championship is the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and has a number of trends that are intriguing. In an event where the focus of the media and watching public is as to who will make it to the Tour Championship, recent champions are split down the middle when it comes to FEC starting position. Keegan Bradley (50th (last) in 2024), Viktor Hovland (7th in 2023), Patrick Cantlay (7th in 2022), Jon Rahm (9th in 2020), Justin Thomas (15th in 2019), Keegan Bradley (52nd in 2018), Marc Leishman (7th in 2017), Billy Horschel (20th in 2014), Zach Johnson (27th in 2013), Justin Rose (34th in 2011) and Dustin Johnson (16th in 2010) all arrived at the BMW with decent enough immediate form, however it didn’t directly translate to a top 5 FEC position.
The other 5 BMW champions since the Playoff structure was put in place back in 2009 have all been elite, in hot form, and high in the FEC standings. Tiger Woods in 2009 won his fifth title of the season at 2/1 when ranked 2nd in the FEC standings. Jason Day and Rory McIlroy were both Number 1 in the FEC standings and had won previous Playoff tournaments at The Barclays and Deutsche Bank prior to winning the BMW at 15/2 and 7/1 respectively. 2016 saw Dustin Johnson, who had previously won the U.S. Open and Bridgestone Invitational, go on to win the BMW at 10/1 when ranked 3rd in the FEC standings. 2021 saw 25/1 chance Patrick Cantlay, who in the season had won the ZOZO plus The Memorial Tournament, enter the BMW ranked 4th in the FEC standings, arriving off an 11th at the Northern Trust.
Keegan Bradley – who else – is the only player that breaks a very strong form trend. His win last year came off of 59th at St Jude and 22nd at the Wyndham, and in 2019 entering the BMW Championship he again arrived with moderate direct from of 49th at the Deutsche Bank and 34th at the Northern Trust. Every other BMW winner in the Playoff era has had a top 13 finish within their past 2 Tour outings and this really highlights this comment made by Nick Watney prior to the BMW in 2013, “Out of 70 guys, there’s kind of…there’s a big gap between guys playing really well, like you said, and guys struggling.“
