The heat ramps us once again as we move into the BMW Championship, the second FedEx Cup Playoff event, with just 50 of the world’s best golfers battling it out at Caves Valley Golf Club.
The Golf Monthly team have once again selected their picks to win the BMW Championship, relying on their expert analysis of the form and odds, but who do I fancy to take a win into East Lake?
After returning a small profit last week, courtesy of Chris Kirk’s top-10 finish at +500, I have found three great selections that perfectly match the model for success at this tough track.
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With this being the penultimate Bazza’s Best Bets column of the 2024-2025 PGA Tour season, I have gone big on one very familiar name that I believe can return us to profit for the year with one very important event to go…
BMW Championship 2025: Bazza’s Best BetsTips by…
Tips by…Baz Plummer
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Golf Monthly writer and resident betting expert
For any first time readers of my betting tips, I’m Baz. Welcome to the journey. I have years of experience writing golf betting content across the PGA Tour, DP World Tour, LPGA Tour and LIV Golf – plus all the men’s and women’s Majors. I have successfully picked three of the last five men’s Major winners, utilising a heavily-researched and data-driven formula which centres around a clear mantra… follow the trends! In this weekly column, I will share my best bets across one particular event of my choice. You can also find my betting tips through the Golf Monthly betting hub. Each week, I have been given 10 points to spend – and I will be transparently sharing my profit and loss each week to help you track the success of my betting tips.
Outright Winner Betting Tips
Outright Winner: Rory McIlroy (5pts @ +700 with BetMGM)
Just one outright pick for me this week, which highlights just how strongly I feel about this selection.
Rory McIlroy is having an incredible season, including finally getting over the line at The Masters and claiming the coveted Career Grand Slam, but his stats also perfectly suit this test.
McIlroy skipped the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week, which doesn’t concern me too much and if anything I expect him to arrive fresh and raring to go.
The five-time Major Winner ranks first for driving distance in this field, which will be crucial around this track, but he also ranks highly for Strokes Gained: Around The Green (14th).
That profile, along with four wins and six top-7 finishes in his last 15 starts worldwide, makes him the most likely winner for me and a very appealing bet when you consider the value you are receiving versus the clear market favourite, Scottie Scheffler.
Rory McIlroy has been phenomenal this season and Caves Valley Golf Club looks to suit his game perfectly
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Sleeper Betting Tips
Sleeper: Chris Gotterup (1pt @ +4000 with BetMGM)
Top-10 Finish: Chris Gotterup (2pt @ +230 at BetMGM)
Chris Gotterup has taken the the golf world by storm in his last four starts, with a second PGA Tour win in Scotland, a third place finish at the Open Championship and a top-10 finish at the 3M Open.
That surge in form has seen him rise 131 places in the Official World Golf Rankings, from 158th to 27th, but things could get even better for the American.
He was somewhat disappointing by recent standards last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, but this test suits him better than TPC Southwind and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him utilise his strengths once again.
Gotterup ranks second for driving distance and 11th for SG: Around The Green, therefore offering a similar profile to headline pick Rory McIlroy at a much bigger price, so he could also be worth siding with in top-10 finish markets.
We could be witnessing the start of something great with Chris Gotterup and he certainly has enough quality to win the BMW Championship
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Top-10 Finish Betting Tips
Top-10 Finish: Matt Fitzpatrick (2pts @ +240 at BetMGM)
Matt Fitzpatrick has been trending in the right direction for some time now, rising 40 places in the Official World Golf Rankings in his last six starts courtesy of four top-8 finishes.
The former US Open Champion hasn’t missed a cut since the week before The Masters, which is a significant upturn from the poor form we saw the start of the season.
This bet would have won in 50% of his last ten starts, which is very encouraging considering the smaller field size, and I can see Fitzpatrick closing out the year in style. Who knows, he might even go and win it!
Matt Fitzpatrick has been trending nicely and I believe he can go close again at Caves Valley Golf Club
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Bazza’s Betting Card For The BMW Championship 2025
I hope those of you that follow Bazza’s Best Bets got onboard with Chris Kirk last week at a decent price, who was actually the last name onto my card, but as I mentioned in last week’s column there are always a few that narrowly miss out.
This time I like the chances of Keegan Bradley as an outside pick, and Jhonattan Vegas in the top-10 finish market, but the other selections outlined on my card below are just to convincing to make any space for additional picks.
These four selections are Bazza’s Best Bets for the BMW Championship 2025
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How Does The ‘Points’ Stake System Work?
A point will represent different amounts of money to different people. I could bet one point, which represents $1 or £1, but to someone else that point could mean $10 or £10 (or $100/£100).
The stakes represent my confidence in the selection, but only you can determine how much (if any) you want to risk on any particular bet. You could also use the stakes as your own imaginary staking system – just for fun without the financial outlay.
Please don’t ever spend more than you can afford and be sure to gamble responsibly.
