Ludvig Aberg and Viktor Hovland form part of a four-man team of Ryder Cup players for the FedEx St Jude Championship.
Golf betting tips: FedEx St Jude Championship
3pts e.w. Ludvig Aberg at 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
2pts e.w. Viktor Hovland at 33/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
2pts e.w. Collin Morikawa at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Justin Rose at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
If someone asked you to name three PGA Tour players who hit the hell out of the ball but can’t be trusted with the putter, there is at least a chance you would land upon Will Zalatoris, Lucas Glover, and Hideki Matsuyama. In fact all three have had videos of their short missed putts shared across social media, the kind of strokes which make for throwaway content on Halloween so terrifying are they to look at.
They are also the last three winners at TPC Southwind, a longstanding PGA Tour venue which is now home of the opening event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, one where it is very difficult to scrap your way around and still mix it with some of the best players in the world.
Yes, Matsuyama had one of those weeks he sometimes has where the putts all drop, but he was still third in strokes-gained approach and eighth in the tee-to-green stats. Before him, Glover ranked fourth in strokes-gained tee-to-green and before him, Zalatoris ranked first. Matsuyama might’ve won this already in 2021 but for his putter, losing a play-off having been the best ball-striker in the field.
In the years that Southwind was a regular pre-US Open stop, Dustin Johnson blitzed the field doing everything well, but two of the next four on the leaderboard lost strokes on the greens. The second of Daniel Berger’s back-to-back wins saw him rank only 44th with the putter and again, excel with his long-game.
In 2020, Justin Thomas produced a dazzling finish to win despite losing strokes with the putter, again having led the tee-to-green statistics. The man he caught and passed late on was Brooks Koepka, who also putted poorly. You can do that here.
The reason for this is that Southwind features narrow fairways, gnarly rough, small greens, and plenty of water: 11 hazards in total, but more pertinently at least eight holes where it comes into play. This makes for extremes, the kind we see at PGA National in February, where bad shots are penalised in the most severe way possible. And it means that, over 72 holes, supreme control is required.
Few architecture buffs would call this anything like a great golf course but it’s arguably one which at least tests the execution of professionals in a way that is somewhat appropriate, and increases the prospect of Sunday drama. We got that last year, when Hideki Matsuyama lost his big lead then powered away again at the end, and we got it in spades over the previous two, which both went beyond 72 holes.
VIKTOR HOVLAND actually calls Southwind ‘a genius golf course’ and it’s certainly one which should bring out the best in the Norwegian, who rates among the chief threats to Scottie Scheffler.
Hovland first played here in 2020, when his chipping was badly exposed after a bright start, and since finishing 59th he’s improved with each visit: 36th (second-round 65), 20th (strong weekend), 13th (middle rounds of 64-65) and then second last year, shooting 15-under for the final 54 holes.
Given that Matsuyama won in 17-under it was Hovland’s comparatively slow start which cost him, but remember this time last year his game was not in a good place. He’d missed the cut in both summer majors after almost winning the PGA, was 46th in the Scottish Open, and arrived having finished 30th at the Olympics two weeks earlier.
That he could come to Southwind and rediscover his best speaks to how much he both enjoys and is suited to this ‘hit it there, don’t hit it there’ test and it’s one he returns to in much better form, having followed third place in the US Open with 11th in Scotland, then an underwhelming but far from disastrous performance at Portrush.
Hovland has also won this year and the Valspar is quite a good guide to this event. It’s difficult, the rough tends to be problematic and there are plenty of hazards; it was where Southwind runner-up Sam Burns broke through and the man who beat him here, Abraham Ancer, had been fifth at Copperhead.
Of course we already know what Hovland can do around here and in particular, his iron play has been excellent over the last two renewals, while he also drove the ball beautifully last year. That iron play has been his big strength in recent months and, if we overlook a blip under links conditions, there’s every reason to believe he’ll be back to his best at one of his favourite courses on the schedule.
More to come from Morikawa
There are no secrets this week with just 69 players in a field absent of Rory McIlroy, for a tournament held at a course everyone knows. But I must admit I’m surprised to see COLLIN MORIKAWA eased as far as 33/1 in places having spent most of this season priced as the third or fourth favourite behind Scheffler and McIlroy.
Morikawa was 20/1 for a Travelers which featured both, 14/1 without Scheffler in the Truist and 16/1 with him but without McIlroy for the Memorial Tournament, the message being fairly simple: he is one of if not the best of the rest, certainly while Xander Schauffele was working his way back into form.
It’s not so much that I think these markets should be static but having been eighth on his last start in the US, ranking third in the strokes-gained tee-to-green stats, and led those same stats in the US Open shortly before, it does seem to me that a fortnight playing badly under links conditions with a temporary caddie has been granted far greater significance than it deserves.
Yes, Morikawa won the Open in 2021 but that was a strange, calm renewal, and I don’t think he’s a natural links golfer. Nor would he have been suited to a Scottish Open which was dominated by genuine powerhouses like Chris Gotterup, McIlroy and Marco Penge, so I’d be willing to put a line right through both those missed cuts.
That would leave us with a player who yes needs to emerge from one of these putting funks which are never too far away, but otherwise has looked ready to win again soon and who, most certainly, will prefer this test at Southwind.
The fact that he’s putted well here in the past is encouraging and without finding the super-low round he may need to actually go ahead and win this week, he’s proven that the course suits, finishing no worse than 26th in five tries, and a best of fifth in 2022.
Significantly, that fifth place followed two missed cuts in Scotland, a promising US Open before that, and a couple of near-misses at the start of the season, so here’s hoping history repeats at what could look a massive price come the end of the week.
Morikawa might have a few doubters now and he wouldn’t be my favourite player on the PGA Tour by any means, but it’s no bad thing if he does still feel he’s playing for his Ryder Cup place, and he should know this is an excellent chance to gain real rewards for his precision.
We’ll see if Tommy Fleetwood is inspired by Cameron Young’s victory last week but while he’s produced two field-leading tee-to-green displays here in the past, he wasn’t a factor in Scotland, never really looked like being in the Open itself, and unlike Morikawa would’ve been right at home having been runner-up at both courses previously.
Justin Thomas is easier to make a case for but MC-31-MC-9-22-34 since his run of 2-36-1-2 in the spring is hardly inspiring form and whereas Matt Fitzpatrick’s run of top-10 finishes now stands at four, in some places he’s the same price he was for the Wyndham Championship. All value appears to have gone.
Preference then is for LUDVIG ABERG, who reminds me very much of Zalatoris and can emulate him by winning this.
Similarities between the pair include almost winning the Masters on debut then playing well again on their next visits, and seemingly specialising at Torrey Pines, where Zalatoris settled for an unfortunate second place but Aberg went one better to win the Genesis Invitational earlier this year.
We were on Zalatoris for this event when he won it in 2022 and while Aberg didn’t quite show the same level of promise that Zalatoris had, he did hit the ball well last year only to suffer a dismal week on and around the greens.
There’s not a static moment in the seconds before Ludvig Aberg pulls the trigger. Always moving. Trevino vibes.
Quick one-two club tap, then go. pic.twitter.com/7mfNPl3R0i
— LKD (@LukeKerrDineen) January 25, 2025
Ranking 10th off the tee and slightly above average with his approaches, there was enough in his performance to support the idea that Southwind, arguably the number one tee-to-green course on the PGA Tour, is going to bring out his best at some stage in the near future.
And while I will admit to being concerned about his propensity to throw in a big number somewhere along the way, the upturn in Aberg’s long-game over the past two months, since a spring slump which saw him miss the cut in the PGA at this kind of price, makes me believe this could be the week.
Aberg’s iron play really has turned a corner, gaining 0.76 strokes per round since June 1 versus a loss of roughly half a stroke from January to May. The gain in overall tee-to-green numbers is more than two shots per round, a whopping eight over the course of 72 holes, and that’s meant anything around average from his short-game is enough to compete.
Therein lies the main issue as his chipping is similar to Hovland’s and his putter comes and goes, but that’s a chance I’m prepared to take around here. The general idea with all three of these selections is that, outside of Scheffler, they’re arguably the players most likely to lead the ball-striking stats at a course where elite ball-striking is an absolute necessity.
Sepp Straka could be another candidate for that and I can see why money has come for the Austrian, whose poor results here since losing that play-off to Zalatoris could be a red herring. His ball-striking has still been good and it’ll likely come down to which side of his putting turns up, Straka having become extreme in both directions.
Hideki Matsuyama’s long-game is right back on track so he too makes some sense, but his record defending has been poor since he managed it the first time in Phoenix and he’s without a top-10 finish since the first week of the year. Sam Burns likes it here, but is less likely to do what we may need from tee-to-green even if he’s in form.
These were the six elite players who made my list and, at the prices, it’s Hovland, Morikawa and Aberg who are considered the best value alternatives to Scheffler, about whom there’s little to say. Maybe these greens will fox him as they have at times in the past, or else maybe he’ll simply go ahead and win another golf tournament.
At bigger prices, Emiliano Grillo, Nick Taylor, Kevin Yu and Davis Riley were the four I came closest to selecting, Yu in particular boasting the right game for this. He’s a debutant though and his best form, which includes two top-fives this year plus a FedEx Fall victory in 2024, has come at a considerably lower level.
Rose to bloom at big price
By contrast, JUSTIN ROSE if anything seems to struggle to get up for the smaller events these days but at 25th in the FedEx Cup standings, knows he could be set for a fantastic three weeks to seal his Ryder Cup spot.
I suspect Rose gets the nod regardless but he won’t be making that assumption and with four top-10s this year all coming in high-class company, plus 16th place in the Open last time out, I think he’s massively overpriced.
That’s because his bad golf has been very bad but this is what you get with Rose these days and given that he played so well as a 66/1 shot in the Open three weeks ago, I don’t quite see how we reach prices bigger than that for an event absent of three of the market leaders at Portrush.
The argument would have to be about the course, but Rose was 11th when Southwind hosted a WGC and, in the last two renewals of this event in its new guise, he’s been 20th and 22nd, both solid efforts. The first followed two missed cuts while the second was after an up-and-down run of MC-MC-68-MC-2-MC.
His form this time is a little bit stronger courtesy of sixth and 16th on links courses and while this is an altogether different test, he shot 61 in the third round two years ago, then spent the first three rounds last year inside the top 10. In fact, the final two rounds of 2023 and the first two of 2024 made for a 72-hole total of -19.
That’s serious golf around here and Rose simply shouldn’t be rubbing shoulders with Si Woo Kim, Taylor Pendrith and an out-of-sorts Akshay Bhatia in this market. He is backed accordingly at a general 80/1, or you can take a hit on the price and grab a couple of handy extra places. Given Rose’s boom-or-bust profile, it’s the former for me.
Posted at 1700 BST on 04/08/25
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