2025 Wyndham Championship Betting Preview

Get ready for an in-depth golf betting preview of The Wyndham Championship! We break down the top players, course analysis, key stats, and picks to help you make informed betting decisions. Discover the latest odds, expert predictions, and one and done picks for this elevated event. 

Topics Covered:
    •    Sedgefield course overview
    •    Key stats for success at the course 
    •    Top bets and placement markets 
    •    Betting strategies and best odds

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This is Long Shots, Vison’s premier golf betting podcast. Here’s Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin. Long shots golf betting podcast here on the Decent Podcast Network. Matt Brown, West Reynolds, Kelly Biden coming to you for the Windham Championship. Decent little field here as we get ready for the playoffs. top 70 trying to get in and uh head on into the postseason here. But uh quick recap of last week. Um there we we talk often about that you know the courses are what separates the these golfers and there is going out and playing very well and and beating up a course and then there is what Kirk Kittyama did over the course of Saturday and Sunday. There is two completely different things. If you have not gone and look at his scorecard over Saturday and Sunday, I highly suggest you do so because it is damn impressive. And uh Wes, I know you are quite happy about it. Yeah, look, I didn’t think I had a chance going into the weekend. I was like, okay, you know, let’s see if let’s see if the placement markets maybe I can squeak out something or break even and just move on to the next week. And then he goes out and shoots 60 on Saturday. He actually Bogi. Yeah, bogei. Bogei 17. Yeah, bogeied 17. Like there was a shot because the 18th of course is a par five there at TPC Twin Cities where he might shoot 58. He eventually shoots 60, puts himself in the final group on Sunday. And I thought, well, at least he got in contention. At least we’ve got some interest here. And then he birdies six of the first eight holes on Sunday. And it’s like, okay, I think he’s going to win this thing. And then of course he had to make it a little bit dicey. But I I go back I think it was the 14th hole on Sunday the bunker shot that he hit and it was from about just inside 200 yards. And Matt always talks about on this pod how good these players like even average players on the tour are. Like no regular golfer is going to hit that shot in his life. Like you have to be a pro to hit that. That was 200 yards bunker shot and he hits it to two feet. And I was like okay. That’s where I started to feel confident. And then then he uh three putted on on 17 and missed a 4-footer. And I was like, well, you know, hopefully Sam Stevens, he’s going to have to, you know, hit a bad one. And he did. And he eventually made five. Kittyama does not lay up on 18. Hits it in the bunker and then saves and then basically two putts from there. So, uh, uh, Kirk Kittyama, well done. Led the field in strokes gained approach. Uh, so he’s actually a Vegas loco, by the way. Lives here now. He’s from Chico, California, but lives here, plays with a lot of the Vegas crew and uh puts himself in the FedEx Cup playoffs. So, very happy to get that 40 to1 home. I’m starting to like this 3M open backtoback years. Uh been able to hit this thing. I I love this tournament in Minneapolis. Absolutely. So, uh go ahead, Kelly. Yeah. No, no, it was just I didn’t want to step on you, Wes. It was a great win by you, Jake Nappa. a little bit of a tease for me, but it was it was a fun event. And uh I thought we were going to go one two, whichever order it was going to be at one point because Nap was right there and uh he eventually finished T3 with Lipsky, Matt Wallace, Pearson Cudy, Sam Stevens of course won back at 22 under. So, you know, we talk about approach every week and sometimes approach truths are proven right. You lead the field in approach, you’re going to be in contention and Gideama certainly was a hell of a weekend. and I believe set the record I think or it was the best in 40 years. Justin Ray, our buddy at the uh uh I forget what company he’s with now, but Justin Ray Golf on Twitter said he made 20 birdies this weekend. 20 birdies or better. That that’s like the best round on the PJ tour from a birdie standpoint in like 40 years. Yeah. The best weekend over the last two rounds. So, thank you Kirk Kittyama. Very much appreciate it. If I see you around town, first drink on me, the rest are on you, though. For real. think I see him from time to time out at my place and like again, you know, just like I said, they don’t play the same game we play. It’s it’s unreal watching him hit the ball. But I I mean, dude, a 60 with a bogey. I I I mean, and then to come out and just basically replicate it in the front nine like I I just was cuz I thought what was going to happen to him is what happened to Ashe Batia or Batia who was in the final pairing and then he just like imploded immediately on Sunday. Oh, one one of the worst final pairings. One of the worst final pairings I can remember in a while. They never showed him. They never they never they never like showed him. I I forget who even the third guy. Oh, it was Kaya. Takumi Kanaya, who I believe did finish top 10, but yeah, they hardly ever showed uh Ashe. I think after the first couple holes, it was like, “Okay, this is done.” Yeah, they had they had that awkward uh like Kittya finishes up and then you’re like, “And there’s one more one more group to come still.” You’re like, “Oh, yeah. I forgot about those guys.” Like, they don’t matter. But, but I’m with you, Wes. Like, we we talked about it last week, man. Like, I this event grows on me more and more every year. And I don’t know if it’s from It’s It’s multiple things. Yes, it suits us well for the guys that we often target, right? Like, Kittyama was on my lovable losers long shots list. So, if you bet all those guys uh last week, you got home with Wes. Um I mean, it’s a heavy ball striking course, right? Matt, we’ve talked about before how much we love a finishing par five that checks that box. It’s just it’s a fun event, especially coming off the British Open. I as far as Birdie Fest go, it’s way up there for me. Yeah. Well, what the tournament founders say, birdies and train wrecks is what we love and that’s what they got last weekend. Yeah, it it it was I’m just glad that that one of us got home on on Kittyama considering I’ve bet that son of a like 250 times. I I did have a top 20. So, I mean like he at least maybe a tiny bit of money, but like obviously I’m still way way way in the hole with Kirk Kittyama. Like Kirk Kittyama has me buried. Uh at least somebody got home with him whenever he finally gets it gets it done uh out there on the PGA tour. But good good for Kirk Kittyama and uh awesome. It was a fun event. I I enjoyed watching it. I thought it was I thought it was fun. So it’s so bad I’ll raise my hand. I did I did the bad bet betting etiquette thing of like sorry we the three of us talk through these tournaments and often we share one or two bets. So, of course, I did the thing like s Saturday, Sunday, I don’t even remember which day. I was out at the pool and I’m like, I’m like, you which I’m like, both of you guys are on Kittyama, right? I’m like, no, not Matt. Matt wasn’t. Sorry, Matt. No, I wasn’t. Bad etiquette. You weren’t as bad as as our as our buddy who appears on the various VS programs, including with Kelly and Gil on a numbers game. seeing Nad he tried to pull the reverse jinx though I think because I think he had Jake Nap and he thought that this was over and it was like it’s not over yet but but I I I I could see I could see it. So uh you know I I I’ve I’ve had that happen before too where I’ve uh almost kind of put the kibash on somebody without the intention of doing so. But you never know with these things, man. And I’m like, there’s a lot of water on this course, man. And he could dump one. And I’ve had that happen to me before. So, hey, if CIA was like me, Wes, don’t feel bad at all because that uh that up and down, quote, up and down for bogey that Nab had was clinched the top five. So, lucky to escape that with that. You had a nice You had a nice score on that, by the way. Very very nice score for you. Yeah. So, that that got home. Got her up. Top 10 got home. It was a little small just ends up being a small tiny loser for me. basically break even. Another one of those weeks in which I found myself in a DFS eligible state. So, uh had some good DFS teams. I know it doesn’t really matter from a sports betting standpoint, but like I was able to play all these dudes, right? So, like I had like Yeah. It’s like I played the player pool of like 20 guys that we liked. It’s just like you can’t play all 20 guys in betting, but you can in DFS, you know, and so it was like I had a nice little player pool of the 20 that we liked. and pretty much everybody. This is this is this is the most interesting week though of betting for me in a long time. Every single one of my guys made the cut and nar one of them had a snowballs chance in hella competing. I I bet I bet seven outrights all seven made the cut and no and they were all like T-57 or something like they were all like like nobody came in contention. Nobody. You know you know what’s funny you saying that is I felt like I had more missed cuts this week than I had in a long time. I only had Nap and Godup get through. Those are the only two I had to get through and then luckily they just cashed bets that I had on them to like make it not so bad. But it’s kind of funny you say that Matt because I was like, “Wow, I really sucked this week like on Saturday.” I’m like, “I only got two guys left.” Yeah, it was it was they all made it and then they all were exceptionally average. They were all like like they were all like two under for the weekend or whatever and finished like T-57 and T58 and stuff. Just some of the betting lessons like we talk about betting lessons. Okay. Things that we like to preach, right? like what do you take it for a lesson if you want to or not. But like the this is why we say dial back right on the top 20s and matchups and stuff like that because you can have in these in these birdie fest where these guys go so low. That can happen to you, right? Like you guys can be cruising and you could go 5 under for the weekend. You wouldn’t have stood a shot there. I mean like look at what Kittyama did over two days. It’s ridiculous. Yeah. Yeah. So we move on here to the Windham championship and this field a little bit stronger as we have people trying to get into that top 70 or even move out you know of the bubble area as well maybe move up a little bit further to make themselves feel a little bit more comfortable as we look at the odds board as if you’re watching this over on the YouTube which by the way it’s free go over to the YouTube channel click on us and subscribe you’ll see Matt Fitzpatrick you’ll see Ben Griffin Keegan Bradley Aaron Ry Jordan Spe Hideki Matsuyama Bob McIntyre Oshay, Patia, Seiwoo, Kim, Lucas Glover, Jake Knap, all these guys. Harry Hall, it’s uh it’s a pretty decent little field actually. And Kelly, as you look at these odds, I mean, you know, it’s uh when the when the favorite is sitting 20 to1, somebody’s going to make some money this week. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Um I mean, and I’ll kick us over to West. I mean, yeah, I think it’s it’s a fun odds board for us to bet into. Uh yeah, we’re gonna get some some low scores again, but you know, Wes, I think you you’ve been you’ve been writing about this sport for a long time, especially for V. And it’s this really is I guess we’re kind of getting the the effect of the signature events and some of the new rule changes that are some of the positives that I know some some of the things that we’ve been complaining about for a while, but this is forcing more of these guys to play in a lot of these later tournaments in the year that we just haven’t seen really in years past, whether it’s the John Deere or the Rocket or this. We just got a lot more guys playing than really than ever before, it seems like. And and I think that’s for a couple reasons, Kelly. Number one, this is a Rder Cup year. So, you do have some bubble boys on both sides, US and the European team. I think the European team looks to be on paper a little bit more cut and dry and set up, even though Matt Fitzpatrick, of course, playing here this week. Uh, so you have that. You have you have to not you have to get into the top 70 now to get into the playoffs. It was it used to be the 125. Now it’s the top 70 gets you in the playoffs. To get into the 125 though does keep your card and keeps your playing privileges for for for the next year. And then they do a priority of you know which events you can get in. They have that FedEx Cup fall and you know ways to play your way into like the first signature event or two in the 2026 calendar. So there are a lot of different motivations here uh this this week for these guys. uh you know, some some to just kind of keep their game in shape, some for RDER Cup, some for FedEx Cup points consideration because you have a lot of guys that are kind of like, you know, maybe some of these DP World Tour guys that were those top 10 that got PGA Tour cards this year that are kind of maybe in like the 110s or the 120s in the FedEx Cup standings like, hey, we kind of like playing on this tour. You know, we we want to stay here for some of the bigger prize money and the high-profile events. So, you know, they’re here. So, there’s a lot of motivation. Even if you don’t continue on into the playoffs, you do have once we get into September, you do have a fall schedule where you can still improve your point standings, but you want to stay out on that tour. You don’t want to go, you know, have to go to like the corn ferry finals or anything like that to try to keep your card where you’re not going to get in every event you want to get into. So, a lot of different motivations this week. Yeah. I think the other one I’ll just add on I’ll just add one quick is the uh is top 50, right? We’re getting if you hit top 50, so really that might matter more next week than really this week, but top 50 you get check off check off the box for every signature event next year. So that’s I mean as far as when you’re talking about big money up for grabs, that is uh that is a major accomplishment this season. So probably maybe more of a factor for next week, but still as as Wes is going through the numbers, another one to keep in mind. Yeah. So as we uh as we get on here, you go to von.com, you see Wes’s write up each and every week. And of course, you can go there for the the full full write up, full details of the course and the tournament itself. But Wes, uh, you know, for the podcast purposes here, what are we going to be looking at this week? Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina, uh, which is, uh, taken over the reigns, has hosted this, I believe, since uh, 20 since 2008, but it’s always been in Greensboro. So, it’s a par 70 7131 Donald Ross Design renovated by uh Chris Spence who’s based locally in Greensboro in uh 2007 who was the superintendent at Forest Oaks which hosted the Windom for about 30 years. And uh typical North Carolina type course, treeline fairways, pine straw, Bermuda grass throughout. It is a par 70, so only the two par fives and the four par 3es. Uh fairways are pretty narrow here actually. 29 yards on average and you get some blind tea shots. Uh rough about 2.5, but it’s that tricky Bermuda rough that can stick to the club face. Little bit of water here. Certainly not as much as the 3M last week. Uh five water hazards on six holes. Not a lot of bunkers, but greens are pretty fast here. Greens are I don’t want to say hard to hit. They’re they’re they’re relatively easy to hit, but about 6,000 square feet, 12.5 on the stimp. You can score here. Brandt Snatker shot here 59 when he won the Windom back in uh 2018. So you can very very much score here. Uh uh I think uh you know you look at the winning scores you could you see into the 20 under range. I think that’s about on average. Last year Aaron Ry who were able to fortunately hit on at 35 to1 was 18 under. Uh so you know, you know what it is. You know, hit fairways and and and and be good on approach and and then we’ll get to that when we get to the uh uh stat and the model breakdown, but I think kind of an interesting course. You can get into trouble here, but you’re probably going to have low scores. I don’t know if it’ll be as easy as we saw Twin Cities play, but you’re looking at around 20 underpar, I think, for the winner. Kelly, as you started to put things together and take a look at what you found important, what were the stats that stood out to you and how did you weight them? Yeah, this is I basically what stood out to me is oh maybe this is another reason why I love the 3M so much because we switch over to this one. I’m like this this tournament does nothing for me and I never win here I feel like. So anyways, uh it’s a lot of what Wes said though. It is uh look you’re looking for fairway fighters. You’re looking for accurate drivers off the tea. Uh, you got to be look, there’s some tricky fairway bunkers. Like, like Wes said, the rough is penal this week. So, you really got to have guys that are accurate off the tea. And then approach is going to matter and quality putters. And I I I just feel a little gross every time I got to look at quality putters, guys. I’m just I’m just I’m just being real with you. I I like the uh get give me the gross cur Kittyama and Keith Mitchells of the world. Great ball striking numbers, and I just got to pray for a good putting week. This is this is way worse when I got to sift through great putters and try to find a guy who can hit a seven iron. Great. Like, come on. Uh, but yeah, it’s it’s it’s a lot of that, right? And guys are going to go low. I think there is some scrambling, some bogey avoidance stuff you want to look at. I punched in, but like we always say, if it’s going to be real, if we’re going to be really going into the 20s, how much of that’s really going to come in play. Um, you got you really want guys that biggest biggest things hit their wedges well, good on approach, uh, find those fairways. I punched in par 4s, 4450 yards. There’s like I don’t know 10 of them. West probably has that number right in front of it’s ridiculous. Um, and then I did putting, a little bit of Bermuda putting and three putt avoidance. I don’t know how you guys do the surfaces. I feel like you guys do it a little bit different than me with the greens. I with since I haven’t been on true Berm Bermuda in so long, like I’ll kind of split up some of the putting stats and just kind of look at regular strokes game putting and I weighed that more uh than actual guys on Bermuda. Um, just because it’s gone back so long really since we we’ve seen several tournaments uh on Bermuda. So, um, that’s kind of basically everything I did this week. Wes, anything different for you? Not a lot. I started with approach because the last two wind them here winners by the way here, Aaron Ry, Lucas Glover, all let on approach during their respective winning weeks. So, I think you got to be pretty damn good with the irons. Uh, in terms of the proximity buckets anywhere 100 to 175, it’s a lot of wedges and a lot of short irons basically into these greens. Uh, uh, fairways hit percentage, which is kind of something different. You can also use good drives gained. I think that’s a good indicator, but you got some narrow fairways and blind tea shots. So, you don’t want to get in that Bermuda rough and and get those errant shots uh when attempting to reach the green. So, I went fairways hit percentage this week. You can also use distance from the edge of the fairway. That’s another with some crossover uh from an off the tea standpoint. But this is an event where you don’t have to take driver very often. Like like last week I think was good for Kittyama because Kittyama could take the driver because you did have, you know, some long holes uh on that on that course at the 3M even though you had wide fairways. With this one, you probably like when Henrik Stenson won here several years ago, he took 3-wood every single time. And no one hits like the 3-wood any better than Henrik Stenson almost in the world back then. So, you can take irons, you can take hybrids, you don’t have to take the driver necessarily every single holes. From a green standpoint, like Kelly mentioned, I use Bermuda like last 24 rounds. Uh, and then I use I use some three putt percentages because you do have the elevated Donald Ross to greens where you have the slopes in multiple runoff locations. So, you will get some three putts and you will get some bogeies here. So, three putt and bogey avoidance. uh uh birdie or better just to see who’s kind of been scoring low numbers lately uh uh uh with that and can get on runs. Uh like Kelly said, strokes gain par4 to 400 to 450. And that was pretty much it. Pretty much straightforward. I’m going to do what I did last year because it did work last year. So, you know, why change? So, I use basically the same stuff I did. Uh so, uh see if we can uh land upon another one here in Greensboro. Yeah, pretty much not not much for me to add to that. I mean, it’s it’s hit fairways, hit greens, don’t three putt, and somebody who who gets hot with that putter is likely to uh to be up there and do very very well. You’re you kind of can see even just in the field, right? There’s a lot of the bigger hitters didn’t even play this event. I know I know they didn’t have to. a lot of people are just taking the week off as it is anyway, but like even some of the other bigger hitters like just didn’t even bother w with this event because it does play to a very specific skill set in my opinion. And so, um, we’re going to be I think we’re going to be talking about a lot of the same dudes here with all of that. And so, Kelly, uh, why don’t you go ahead and kick things off here. How did your how did your model spit things out and what did you end up doing with your betting card? Yeah, it was uh it was interesting with it being the last regular season event of the year, which I don’t really know that that means anything from a betting standpoint, but uh I I I went a little heavier. I went with six this week. I I I was trying to figure out who to kick who to cut down and kick out, and I said, you know what? I’m just going to ride with all six. Now, it’s a little weird for me personally to go that that many because I did start with Matt Fitzpatrick. He was number one rated out for me. Wasn’t even close. I I’m going to guess he was for you guys as well. Um, for me, okay. Nowhere to be. Never mind. Wow. Okay. He’s good on the form, I think, but maybe the stats don’t stand out. No, I I understand because like like he’s not really up there on any of the stats that I modeled, but you’re just going with the guy that’s playing well. And by the way, in full disclosure, I’m on Matt Fitzpatrick as well, uh, at around the same price, 20 to1. The form is hard to ignore. Four, fourth, and eighth last three events. and he’s also won at Harbortown at the RBC Heritage and there’s some crossover here at the Sedgefield. Kelly, continue. Yeah, thanks Wes. No, no, you’re good. No, you’re good. I know. I’m glad you gave me a minute. I was like, let me pull up my bottle and see if I’m missing anything here. But no, I uh just last 16 rounds. I mean, he’s he’s still I mean, he’s 11th weighted off the weighted approach, 18th weighted putt putting. I mean, he’s one of the better putters in this uh in this field. So, anyways, I started with Fitz. Um and really what he’s done recently, yes, those results have been incredible. T4 at the Open, T4 at the Scottish Open. Now, a little bit different, I think, heading back state side, but before he went over to Europe, it was a T8 at the Rocket Classic and T7 at the Traveler. So, he’s in really good form right now. I honestly as good a form as I can remember, Matt Fitzpatrick in the past couple years. Um, really putting it together. So, I did start with Fitz. Uh, played him 20 to one and then cover with the top five. Um, this is a guy I really didn’t think I’d be back on this week. I think it’s the third tournament in a row. I’m just going to keep riding Jake Knap. This is you’re taking the driver out of his hands. I understand that’s one of his better weapons, but he’s got a lot of the rest of the game is just cruising right now. One of one of the hottest putters right now on the PGA Tour, which is something he’s struggling with beginning of the year. He’s gained in seven straight events, I believe it is. The putter um T3 last week, the T22 the Scottish, T-21, T4 the Rocket, T-27 Canadian Open. Just consistent consistent finishes now uh for Jake Knap. So, look, I I think he’s had some accuracy issues over the year with with the driver, so I don’t necessarily mind if he’s going to have to take that out of his hands, but we do know overall that is one of the bigger weapons of his game. So, don’t mind if you won’t want to join me on Jake Knap this week, but I am going to play him still. Uh Harry Hall I went back to as well this week. Just another I if I think putting is going to matter so much this week, Harry Hall and Matt Fitzpatrick are two of the best in the field uh when it comes to that. And it’s another guy just consistent finishes, man. I like had to go back on this a bit. T28 at the open is the worst finish he’s had since May 4th. He is just just putting together great performance after great performance. So, uh, played Harry Hall 47 to1 outright market cover him with an outright. Um, and then a couple guys, a couple fun ones. Badenhout I am on this week. If we’re looking for approach players and putters, Zaden checks those boxes. So, 51 to1 on Bez. I’m in on him. I cannot remember what year the last year I bet this guy. I’m about to say his name. I’m I’m I’m playing some vibes on this one. Ricky Fowler. I’m in on Ricky Fowler. Ricky Fowler as well. You son of a I Ricky as well, dude. He showed up in one of my models and I’m like, “Oh, I’m betting. If I have the chance to bet him, if I have the rationale to bet him, then I’m going to bet him.” He was seventh in one of the models that I ran. I’m like, “Listen, if he’s I I don’t That’s all I need. That’s all I need. I need Ricky. I I just need Ricky in my life.” So he Yeah. He was like top 10 in one of mine, too. And I was kind of like sit I sit there. I I spent way too much time on him and I was like, I don’t know. I probably shouldn’t bet him or I I shouldn’t bet Nap. I went back and forth cutting off him or Nap. And I was like, Nap’s been too nice for me. Just cashed a ticket. I’m going to play him. And like I said, I don’t know what year it was, Matt, that I last played Ricky Foul. I have not bet this guy in at least two years for sure. Um, so in on Ricky. And then the last one, Wes, I think you bet him recently. And when you said his number, maybe it was last week, it it it it caught my attention. Chris Kirk, 110 to1, triple digits to Chris Kirk. Uh putter’s really working well for him right now. Gained in five straight events with the putter. The rest of the bag’s kind of up and down, but then the results are kind of wild, too. T14 last week and then it was a miscut and a 65th of the John Deere, but then a T2 at the Rocket Classic and a T12 at the US Open. So, the upside’s there. It just again like I said before the like it’s it sucks to rely on the the good putting guys this week and hope that they can put it together with the rest of the clubs but uh Chris Kirk you’ve usually been a pretty good iron player. Let’s go put it together uh this week and triple digit bomb would be nice to get home. So yeah, that’s my whole card. I got again Fitzpatrick Knap Harry Hallen out Fowler and Chris Kirk. I love it. I love that we both ended up on Ricky. That That would be a fun That’d be a fun You may I may have to add that. That might be one I have to dig into a little bit more. Uh by by the way, Ricky 6 first now in the FedEx Cup. So, he’s probably going to be in that top 70 because I had to check that really quick while you were mentioning it and I’m like, is he outside that top 70 or where is he? Uh but go ahead. To your to your point, Wes, two of those guys, and I didn’t really do this. I kind of checked it afterward as well, but Kirk and Bazadenhow, I believe, were just on that outside looking in. So, if you are looking for a motivation angle that those two check that box. Yeah. Wes, what did your uh what’ your model tell you? Well, fits we where we’ve already mentioned uh with that with that crossover. I just can’t ignore the forum and I know it’s setting us up for disappointment uh because he doesn’t really stand out anything statwise. But I’ve been riding the guy and been saying, man, he’s getting closer to winning. He’s over that caddy switch now. And he started to play really good golf. Eighth in Detroit, fourth in Scotland, fourth at the Open. take a couple weeks off and I feel like he’s going to win here very soon whether it’s on the PGA tour, on the DP as he gets in some of those better fall events that they have over there in Europe. Uh so fits a 20 to1. Uh uh when you think also of approach and fairway finders, Lucas Glover usually right at there at the top of the list, 35 to1 uh winner here in 2023. He’s in the top 30, so he’d be in line to be get to the tour championship at the end of the year. Five top 10s this year. Ones that really stood out to me though were fifth at the Deer, ninth at the Travelers, and third at the Players, which kind of put a premium on finding fairways. So, Lucas Glover 35 to1. I looked at some guys in the mid-range though, and Kelly mentioned a couple of them that that that he played, including, uh, Harry Hall, uh, JT Poston, Adam Scott, Ricky, uh, Bazadenhout. Uh, you know, those guys all make sense. And so, I didn’t really have one right. I felt in the middle range. This guy’s on the periphery of the mid-range at 66 to1. Uh Andrew Novak, uh who won the first event this year that his first PJ tour win at the Zurich with Ben Griffin. But Ben Griffin, who’s one of the favorites this week, went on to win his first solo event at the Colonial. Meanwhile, Novak, which benefited Kelly, he was on JT heavily for the RBC Heritage. Novak lost in that playoff at the RBC. But I mentioned the RBC because there is some correlation with the Windham championship. You have had several players win both events probably over the last two decades and then tons of places, tons of seconds and thirds and fifths at both places. So, I think there’s a real correlation there. And then Novak, one of those guys, as absurd as it sounds on the surface, still might be in the periphery of RDER Cup mix. Uh, 13th in the standings. And I don’t think Keegan Bradley’s got his 12 set yet. I don’t think this is like Europe where they kind of know basically who their team is going to be. So, there’s a couple guys here with a lot at stake this week that can make impressions with the captain. Keegan Bradley, by the way, in the field this week. Novak’s one of them. Uh, uh, Bud Collie. I’m going to go back to Bud at 80 to1, who has cooled off from what we saw in the spring where he had four top six finishes, including, by the way, a third at Colonial, which is another strong correlation here to Sedgefield because kind of tight tight lines a little bit off the fairway, but fairways and greens. He’s in those FedEx Cup playoffs, but he’s trying to get that first PJ tour victory. And he was third here at Sedgefield. I look back 2012, 13 years ago. I keep thinking Bud Collie is like that 20-year-old pro prodigy that we thought was going to be destined for stardom. Hadn’t happened due to various injuries, but third in 2012, has another top 10, another top 15 here. So, guy that seemingly likes, of course, Bud Collie, 80 to1. And then uh uh we’ve got three triple digit shots this week, but they all got popped in various aspects of the model. Yes, Rio Hatsune 110 to1 who has cooled from that spring form where he had four top 10s, but I think he’s a good fit here. T8th at the Heritage. And by the way, the RBC now is a signature event, so you’re playing against the best guys. You’re not playing against the full field where it’s kind of dispersed a little bit. So that’s not a bad finish there. Uh T6 also at Colonial where players are not driver heavy and I think that’s good for Rio here. Uh Victor Perez, I’m going to play him again at 110 to1. Moderate success in his first full season, just the one top 10, but I looked good drive percentage and strokes gained approach. He was top 10 in this field. So this is a guy maybe that can play well. Probably needs a little bit of urgency to move up a little bit in those FedEx Cup standings. And a guy that really he was like almost in every stat I profiled here. And I looked at his price and I knew it would be big. I didn’t think it’d be this big. 175 to1. Ben Kohl’s who I did play in placements last week and ended up I think top 20 at a decent at a decent price if you played that. I played top 40. He is 151st by the way in the FedEx Cup standings. So he’s got to get to get to the 125 which means he’s got to have like a top three or four finish here to make those kind of points. So getting into the playoffs unless he wins is certainly ambitious, but retain that tour card. He’s the former former cornfair player of the year. T20 at the 3M. But by the way, he was third in approach and second in greens in regulation. So that’s telling me that the ball striking is there. And can it carry over for one week. So Ben Kohl’s closes it out at 175 to1. I also own Ben Kohl’s at 175 to1. um that Ben Kohl’s eighth in one of my models and sixth in another and I was like what in the hell is going on here? And as you said, Wes, you you go in and you start digging in and like you don’t necessarily love the like strokes gain total numbers and all of that, but once you started to get into the approach stuff, uh I ran just kind of like since this is a a a tournament that I think it’s just going to be more of a skill set of can you hit fairways, are you hitting, can you hit irons, can you putt? I I didn’t do a specific round deal. I did like the last seven. So basically this calendar year, right? So I I I ran it over this calendar year and then you get to Ben Kohl’s and it’s like 14th in approach, fourth in driving accuracy, fourth in good drive percentage, fifth in distance from the edge of the fairway, 14th in proximity for 150 to 200. Like all these different stats that click on this course and Ben Kohl’s was there. So I also fall on Ben Kohl’s at 175 to1. You mentioned Victor Perez. I don’t have Victor Perez on the card, but you will see as I have written down down here, I have two names in which I will do something with before it’s all said and done. Victor Perez being one of those names. Uh Ameiliano Grio being the other name. Uh Gillo actually first overall in one of the models that I ran. So I can’t I can’t just ignore that. So I’ve got to do something. I don’t know if it’s a headto-head. I don’t know if I just, you know, play him in a three ball. I don’t know if I’m going to end up just maybe on a top 10 or top 20 or something. Gillo and Victor Perez are the two kind of first off the card guys there. Um I only chuckled because Guillo could uh obviously make the the lovable long shots losers list from last week as well that all three of us has bet way too much way too many times. Um yes, we uh and Cole’s actually rated out high for me too. Maybe maybe I have to dabble in the 175 to1. He was 18th in mine. So I guess uh yeah, that’s something I should look at a little closer. We already talked about uh old Dicky Fowler there. got him 58 to1. So, feel good about that one. Four other outrights for me. The guy who just dominated every version of every model that I ran was Aaron Ry. And so, Aaron Ry um has to be on the card here at 28 to1. Not normally a name that I would like to play at 28 to1, but I mean, you want to talk about green across the board whenever you’re running a model for a dude. I mean, this is green across the board. And I’m talking whether I ran the model at Bets, whether I ran the model at Rick Rungood, whether I ran the model at Data Golf, it didn’t matter. Like Aaron Ry was was up there. I mean, this dude was just absolutely pummeling the top three or four in every single one of those models. Number one overall in two of the ones that I ran. So Aaron Ry has to be Yeah, he’s had a better year than I’ve realized. Yeah, he’s a he’s he’s the perver He is the lurker. He’s just he’s a lurker and I know betting him to win outright and we talk about win equity all the time and you look and he’s just a dude that like doesn’t sniff the top 10 hardly ever and it’s always like just these like 33rd 17ths 24ths and things whatever but you know a little bit weaker field and of course it really does fit his game a ton. So yeah, Aaron Ry to a you’re going to hate this whenever he wins. I’m on Keegan. Um oh no. Yeah, Keegan also green across the board. Basically, every single statistical category just gets lit up with Keegan number two in this field over the calendar year in strokes gain total in this entire field. And you just wouldn’t think about that with Keegan Bradley, but he is inside the top 20 off the T approach. Um, and where was the other thing that jumped off the page? A lot of green, man. Yeah. and the the par4 birdie or better. Obviously the two extra par4s here on this course considering we’re only deal dealing with two par fives. Uh Keegan also inside the top 15 in par4 birdie or better percentage as well. So Keegan Bradley makes the card. Travelers by the way a very good correlation I think for this event where uh Kelly and I were very happy to see Tommy Fleetwood spill some milk on that 18th as that got us home. And and you know what, Keegan, I’m sure is still motivated and you’re always motivated to win, but it’s like, well, god shucks, I got to pick myself now. You know, I I’ve won again. So, and and I think he’s probably going to anyway. I think he’d be foolish not to because I he’s one of the best 12 on this team. West makes We talk about fairways and irons and who else who’s going to make the card? I mean, the Woo obviously is going to make the card. I mean, like fairways and irons, the Woo makes the card. The Woo is third overall in one of the models. Whenever I add in whenever I add in um just kind of the like approach putt deal, it’s not necessarily three putt avoidance, but just like who’s kind of like getting closer to the to the pin after that first putt and they can just kind of, you know, make a tapin. Uh Seiw’s 23rd in this field over the calendar year, which actually moves him up a spot. So, I did one model with with putting, one model without, and he actually moves up a spot from third to second once I add in the little the little bit of putting there. And then over on Rick’s site, he’s third overall in the model that I ran over there. So, again, inside the top five in every single version of what we’re looking at here. And again, like we said, if you’re talking about fairways and irons, the Woo is is likely going to rate out very, very well. And so, uh, that’s where I am. The Woo, by the way, a former winner here and a former runner up here, uh, uh, back in 2021. and like that playoff they had like 10 guys I think if I remember that Kevin Gizner won but yeah six because I remember having Adam Scott so he was and Russell Henley’s the one that should have won the tournament but that’s an aside note not that I’m bitter about that but the wooh certainly does the woo does fit here so Donald Ross and Pete die designs you always got to look at sew and uh last for me is uh we can add this guy to the list where even if he wins I’m pretty sure I’m buried but uh Ryan Gerard uh so he he could win I’ll still be buried on um 50 to1 on Gerard. Again, just inside the top 12 and basically all versions of everything that I ran. I mean, it’s just I I I don’t know. I I I I can’t get away from this guy that’s like in all of these categories that I love. I mean, the only thing that you don’t like about him really is you don’t have any stats from the one time he won. Yeah. that approach bucket of like 150 to 200 which we know is like very very important here at this one. He’s 93rd actually over the calendar year in that which like which is why he’s probably not higher in the model. If id have if I had not put as much weight on a proximity bucket I which I rarely do. It’s just like you know damn near half the shots come from from that um from that range. So that’s why I actually did it this week. He’d probably be inside the top 10, but he’s just he’s just outside of that with like the 12th and 13th because of the the proximity stuff with all of that, but everything else really really good stat profile for Gerard. And yeah, I mean, he has one recently. I didn’t benefit from that, but like maybe I can this week, you I didn’t even see right at number 50 in the official World Golf rankings, which that is going to be a magic number at the end of the year to get those Masters invitations because winning the Barracuda gets him the exemption on the tour, but it doesn’t get him the Masters invite because it was the alternate event, so they don’t give those. But, but this guy, I got a feeling he’s going to continue to play good golf and he’s going to be just fine for all those privileges. So, Aaron Ry, Keegan, the Woo, Gerard, Fowler, Kohl’s for me. And like I said, Gillow and Perez, something’s going to happen with those guys. I I just got to dig in a little bit deeper on once more headto-heads get released and and you know, different things like that. But I will have exposure to Gillow and Perez in some way, shape, or form. I just don’t know exactly uh what that is at this juncture. Matt, we we’ll see if we can make this uh two for two since it hit last week. I’m just going to keep uh creating the list that applies for each uh each uh each tournament. And here at the Windham Championship, your lovable long shots losers that all three of us have bet too many times. Here’s your six-pack for this week. Keegan Bradley, Siw Kim, Aaron Ry, Ameiliano Grill, Lucas Glover, and Ryan Gerard. That’s a six-pack of guys that we have all bet several times in the p over the past year or two. That’s kind of new new in 2025, though. He’s a new addition. We’ll see if we can get uh we’ll see if we can get home with all these guys uh DFS players out there. There just some other dudes that showed up in the model that were fairly cheap if you want to kind of like Alex Smallley was some like popping a little bit here and there for me. Rico Hoey was popping a little bit for me. He would be a good guy probably to mix in on from a DFS stuff. Kevin Roy, weirdly hit a lot for me this week. I almost played him. Weirdly Joel Damon was in a decent amount of the the models that I that I ran. So he would be maybe a guy if you wanted to get in the mix for your DFS plays as well. Of course, all the guys that we mentioned are are also fairly cheap. So, you’ll be able to build a good lineup that you like no matter what. And certainly, if you’re rotating the dudes that we talked about today, Nate Lashley, also another guy that has uh Nate Lash popped up in several several versions of the uh of the model for me. Guys, as I mentioned, you can get Wes’s full write up over at the site uh Visa Pro subscriptions right now. You got to take advantage. I think we only got a couple more days of the whole 175 for now to the Super Bowl. So, uh, get in there, do that, and, uh, you’ll also get the pick page in which anything that we mention on this podcast will be listed there, and anything that we add will also be over there on the pics page as well. For Wes, for Kelly, I am Matt. Good luck on all your Windom plays. Volume, Kelly, you suck at this. Come on, Kelly. Hey, Matt. Like, how you been, man? You just you don’t want to hang out and chat for a while? Wait, you got you got somewhere. You got a beer or something? Everybody awkwardly waiting on the outro. There it is.