Matt Fitzpatrick can justify favouritism and cap a fine run of form with victory in the Wyndham Championship, according to Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: Wyndham Championship
3pts e.w. Matt Fitzpatrick at 18/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1.5pts e.w. Adam Scott at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Andrew Novak at 66/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Bud Cauley at 66/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Tom (Joohyung) Kim at 66/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Christiaan Bezuidenhout at 75/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
In an evolving golf landscape, Sedgefield Country Club remains the home of the Wyndham Championship, which remains the place where the PGA Tour’s regular season concludes. That familiarity is part of the appeal, but there’s a sense of heightened importance right now because where once the top 125 got you into the FedEx Cup Playoffs with a card for the following year, those groups are both split and reduced: just 100 get full status, just 70 make it to Southwind.
Kurt Kitayama’s imperious weekend performance saw him leap from outside the 100 to the cusp of the top 50, which is another cut-off worth monitoring as these players earn starts in the lucrative Signature Events next year. Then there’s the top 30, which comes with the biggest reward of all: a crack at the newly flattened TOUR Championship, plus gift-wrapped invitations to all four majors in 2026.
The PGA Tour’s post-season remains flawed, something we’ll hopefully see in the form of a hilarious outcome at East Lake in a month, but it’s pretty compelling. Throw in the Ryder Cup, where the US team in particular still feels a long way from decided, and almost everything bar winning the actual majors is up for grabs over the coming weeks. First though, you’ve got to be in it to win it, and the Wyndham resolves all that.
Sedgefield is a short, classical par 70, designed by Donald Ross and featuring trademark back-to-front greens. It’s tree-lined and accuracy has always trumped power here, with winners broadly divided into two categories: the putting gods like Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Kisner, JT Poston and Webb Simpson, and the old-style fairway-and-green machines like Sergio Garcia, Lucas Glover, Henrik Stenson and Aaron Rai.
MATT FITZPATRICK can fit both those descriptions when firing and the in-form Englishman, now certain of a Ryder Cup spot I would think, stands out as the man to beat and should be backed accordingly.
We were on the former US Open champion when he rediscovered his form in Detroit (T8), at another Ross-designed course, and it was a bit harsh not to get properly rewarded for that. He finished in a share of eighth, putting hopelessly, hitting it as well as he just about ever has, having been sent off a largely unconsidered 40/1 shot.
Since then, he’s been fourth in the Scottish Open in deeper waters at a shorter price, then fourth in a major championship at 33/1, so we were on the right side of him in a weak tournament he might’ve won had he holed his share, one of the many frustrations of the last few months.
That also presents a dilemma of sorts as he’s been promoted back up the betting, but after another outstanding, field-leading tee-to-green display at Portrush for by far his best Open result in a decade of trying, I feel bookmakers could’ve been much more defensive here.
The reason they perhaps haven’t been is that Fitzpatrick hasn’t been a Sedgefield regular, finishing mid-pack on his only try in 2018, at a time when he was out of form. Yet everything we know about him, right down to the fact that his form book is very similar to Rai’s in many ways, tells us that Sedgefield is an excellent fit – not that there’s anywhere he couldn’t handle if his long-game remains as good as it has been.
Take a look at his correlating form, for example. Four players have won both here and over the South Carolina border at Harbour Town, and another 11 have a win at one of the two plus a top-five at the other. Fizpatrick has already won the RBC Heritage and would be adding his name to the list of dual champions should he do as hoped.
Five players have done the Sedgefield and Sawgrass double, and Fitzpatrick has been fifth in The PLAYERS there. Just one has done the Sedgefield and Southwind double, but that tougher and more hazardous par 70 does still crop up often when you analyse contenders at each tournament, and Fitzpatrick’s record in Memphis shows fourth, fifth, and sixth.
Second to Rai at Fanling and later succeeding him as champion at The Renaissance, bang in-form again at last and with his long-game doing the heavy lifting where once it might’ve been his putter, Fitzpatrick fits the bill however you look at this and while the field is good, he stands out a mile from the front of the betting.
Regular readers will know I’ve missed a couple of obvious, shortlisted winners this season, not least Kitayama last week. Hopefully we can end this part of it by putting that right to some degree and, like Fitzpatrick, carrying some momentum into the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
One man hoping to join Fitzpatrick in them but with work to do is ADAM SCOTT, who is coming to a good course for his retrieval mission as we approach the end of a season which has only recently started to get going.
Granted, Scott was a big disappointment in the Open but prior to that he’d played well pretty much since the Masters, regularly showing promise in Signature Events, finishing 19th in the US PGA and, of course, contending for the US Open where he dropped away from the final group.
The most pleasing aspect of this run was his ball-striking, with both his driving and approach play numbers up considerably on the start of the year, and following a blip at Portrush he was back on track last week. Three solid rounds followed by a quiet finish weren’t what he wanted from the 3M Open, but Scott was making his debut there and ranked 10th in strokes-gained ball-striking.
Sedgefield is much more familiar, Scott having missed a short putt to win this title four years ago and returned only twice since, the most recent a share of seventh when closing with a round of 63. Notably, while his form was solid enough in 2023, it had been largely poor in 2021, yet this course and a rare drop in grade combined to see him right there in the mix.
He’s a former PLAYERS champion with a fine record at Southwind, also has victory at Colonial on his CV, has been fifth and ninth at Ross designs in majors, third at the Ross-designed Aronimink, and of course won the TOUR Championship almost 20 years ago, held at another Ross-designed course and one he’d dearly love to qualify for as he did last year.
Scott currently sits 85th in FedEx Cup points and, just as importantly, 45th in the world rankings. Much has been made this year of his lengthy run of major appearances which will stand at 98 by the time he’s played in the Masters next year. I’m sure reaching the century is a big target of his and a path to that may lie ahead over the next few weeks, one which has to begin with something like a top-three finish here.
Given that he’d looked to have his long-game in the best shape it’s been all year prior to the Open, and that he quickly returned to those levels at a new course last week, I’m optimistic that he can at least make a run at the title, and with that a run at the top 70.
Few of the market principals made serious appeal with Ben Griffin considered the biggest danger to Fitzpatrick, but it’s his Zurich Classic teammate ANDREW NOVAK who is preferred on value grounds.
Novak was born in Raleigh, less than an hour and a half from here, just like former Wyndham champion Simpson. In fact this has been a really good event for local ties, with South Carolina duo Kisner and Glover following on from North Carolina’s Poston. The very first winner here, Carl Pettersson, is a Swede who went to high school nearby, and last year’s narrow runner-up Max Greyserman went to college at Duke, too.
For Novak then this is a home game and while it’s one he’s yet to fully take advantage of, not only will this be his first try as a PGA Tour winner, but he has shown much more promise than may first appear. Two years ago he opened with a 64 to lie fourth and was still 11th through 54 holes only to fade to 33rd, then last year he was 25th at halfway but again went backwards thereafter.
Even more encouraging is the fact that on all three starts, including a missed cut as a debutant, he’s gained strokes both off the tee and with his approaches, only to be let down by his putter. That suggests he can handle the course and as he’s been putting well lately, ranking second in Scotland and sixth a couple of starts before that in the US Open, it may just be that everything falls together this time.
And while it’s true that his form has levelled off following that golden spring, the fact that his runner-up finish came at Harbour Town, one of the very best guides to this event, could prove a big clue, while his 13th place in Scotland before he made the cut in the Open represents a perfectly solid stab at links golf and big improvement on limited previous tries.
Novak will be much more comfortable here and, roared on by friends and family, knowing his years-long goal of playing at Bethpage is going to need a win or something close to that between now and the end of the season, he appeals as an each-way bet at 50/1 or bigger.
At around the same price, Denny McCarthy could leave behind another miserable trip to the UK. So far he’s shown absolutely nothing under links conditions so having been a shot outside the top 10 in both prior US starts, one of them in a Signature Event, it’s tempting to suggest that he can return to form under what should be ideal conditions.
But while we have seen some putting masterclasses here, approach play has been key: Rai and Glover both led, Russell Henley did when he arguably should’ve won, Poston led, and the three winners before him all ranked inside the top three. Players often talk about how you have to be beneath or on the correct side of the hole and, overwhelmingly, those who can do that dominate Wyndham leaderboards.
That elevates another elite putter, CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT, above McCarthy for now especially as he looks straightforwardly underrated at close to 80/1.
Bezuidenhout hasn’t had the best of seasons given that it began so well with fourth place on his fourth start in Phoenix, but since a surprise 12th in the US Open he’s generally shown promise, his only recent missed cuts coming via rare off-days with the putter.
And while it might seem odd to use approach play as the reason to side with him over McCarthy, who ranks higher for the season, the turnaround in Bezuidenhout’s has been key to his improved form. Six times in his last nine starts he’s been very good and in gaining 0.4 strokes per round since May, he’s been much better than Denny at 0.1.
Should Bezuidenhout’s iron play continue to fire then he can be really dangerous around the right course and that’s where I see further promise: last week he was among the best in the field over the closing 54 holes after a slow start, yet a soft Twin Cities was very much the wrong course, one where long drivers dominated in the end.
Now he comes to Sedgefield, where he has rounds of 63 and 64 to his name, has made all four cuts and done virtually everything well (sixth in approach play last year, third around the greens, and dynamite on the greens on his first two visits), the question will be can he drive the ball well enough to compete.
I think the answer is yes, because around here that means finding fairways, not overpowering the course, and he’s done that all year. Most weeks it isn’t rewarded, but this is a course for the accurate drivers, one we know he can compete at.
That he’s just outside the top 70 should ensure absolute focus; that he’s played so well at Sawgrass underlines my belief that he’s got plenty in his favour.
Kim preferred to amateur star
World number one amateur Jackson Koivun was quite close to selection as he knows the course, is in form, drives it straight and seemingly putts the lights out. Perhaps he can do as Nick Dunlap did last January but let’s remember Dunlap was a 500/1 chance; Koivun, in a good field for the event, is 50-66/1 and I don’t think the layers are taking any chances there.
They might be with an older local, Ben Kohles, but his putting woes hit a new low last week and while Kitayama, Ryan Gerard and William Mouw have all recently defied similar issues, it’s hard to overstate how bad Kohles was at Twin Cities. He has something else to play for from 151st in FedEx Cup points but needs a miracle turnaround and has been trimmed at big odds along with Adam Svensson.
Next for me then is TOM KIM who does still have something to prove, but is a good price at the course where he was a runaway winner three years ago.
Kim is another who began the season encouragingly, finishing seventh at Pebble Beach, but he’s without a top-10 finish since then and has generally found it hard to avoid one bad day wherever he plays.
We saw that again in the Open a couple of weeks ago, when he followed a promising 69 with a round of 76 which saw him miss the cut, but either side of it he’s been 17th in the Scottish Open and 28th in the 3M Open, which both favoured long drivers.
Kim ranked 10th and 12th in fairways across these two tournaments but was handicapped by his lack of power and that won’t be an issue here, which therefore could add up to a significant step forward given that his approach play has fired three times in his last four starts.
With the putter also showing signs of warming up and now returning to a course where he made everything he looked at on his sole previous visit, Kim has a squeak of producing the contending, likely solo second or better he’d need to earn a place in the Playoffs and a chance to redeem himself after last year’s Southwind disaster.
We’ll see whether he’s up to it but his other two PGA Tour titles came on his first two starts at Summerlin, a course which correlates nicely with Sedgefield, and hopefully come Sunday night he’s wondering why he didn’t come back sooner. If that’s the case, the world number 62 might just have taken care of a lot of business in four short days.
Eric Cole and Jacob Bridgeman both caught the eye last Friday and will prefer this, but Cole’s form coming in previously has been vastly superior to what it is now, while Bridgeman, from South Carolina, just doesn’t hit the ball well enough to appeal even in a tournament some would mislabel a putting contest, one in which he was 12th last year.
My final selection therefore is BUD CAULEY, who has some excuses for seemingly cooling off since his red-hot spring which included contending at Sawgrass, one of those courses which is so often a good pointer to this event.
Also ninth at Harbour Town and more recently third at Colonial, this is a good course for the one-time amateur star who was third here back in 2012, when trying to reel in Sergio Garcia. If there is a nagging concern it’s that a shootout wouldn’t necessarily be his choice, but I’d say the same for Rai and Glover and the propensity for approach play to shape leaderboards suggests it’s a good fit.
Cauley’s approach play figures took a hit in Scotland and Northern Ireland but he was inside the top 20 on the PGA Tour a month ago and, back under more familiar conditions, there won’t be many in this field as likely as he is to produce the top 10 display we may well need to find the champion.
Now up to 34th in putting having drastically improved that aspect of his game, it’s no wonder he’s 17th in strokes-gained total so far this season and while there are some flaws to this ranking (hence Alex Smalley being 10th prior to last week), this is a player who has a very well-rounded game which has carried him to 51st in FedEx Cup points.
When Cauley was 15th here in 2020 it was his best result since January and he’s come such a long way since returning to the course with a missed cut 12 months ago. This would be an appropriate place to complete an impressive comeback and he’s another for whom victory would secure much more than silverware, from 60th in the world rankings.
It was reported last week that we’re on 999 different PGA Tour winners. Cauley, whose career was almost ruined by a car accident, would be a deserving 1,000th given the way he’s battled back to this level. Hopefully he can at least threaten to claim that little slice of history.
Max McGreevy kept his card with a top-five finish here a few years ago and arrives ranked 99th in the FedEx Cup, another storyline to follow, while the accurate Carson Young is another in-form (somewhat) local who could go well, but this tournament has a propensity to go to one of the better-fancied players outside of Jim Herman’s freak 2020 win. Let’s attack it accordingly.
Posted at 1800 BST on 28/07/25
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