2025 Wyndham Championship Picks & Predictions | PGA Tour Bets
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome back to the Nineteenth Hole. We are live on InBetween Media. You should like this video. Subscribe to the whole channel and jingle that bell for notifications. We are sports. We are lifestyle and everything in between. Rep in the water tower. Small towns like West Tennessee, Memphis. Shout out on the radio. One hundred five point one FM in West Tennessee. Shout one to one point five. Sorry. Had to talk in West Tennessee. One to one point five. Catching us on the radio. Like and subscribe. We got a NorCal winner. On the PGA Tour, we got a first pro start winner on the LPGA. It’s crazy to catch up with the world of golf. We’re entering the final week of the regular season before the FedEx Cup playoffs. I have Jake Perry backstage ready to duke it out with me on these picks. We’re going to bet on some golf. We’re going to reminisce and talk about NorCal more than ever before. I’m sure he’s ready for it. Let’s hit it. Here we are final week of the PGA tour regular season. I got Jake Perry here alongside me. Great to have you back on the show. Jake Connor Coughlin on assignment. Apparently South Dakota was hit by some cumulonimbus clouds yesterday to the tune of some hundred mile an hour winds, maybe some twisters. Uh, and, uh, They will rebuild. Connor’s okay. The whole family’s doing great. They just lost power a little bit. So let him get back to it, ready for the playoffs. He’s skipping this week like a lot of the top guys that don’t have to worry about playoff seeding. But Jake, great to have you. How are you doing tonight? Doing good. Happy to be back, ready for the FedEx Club playoffs, ready to get out of boring golf courses like we’ve had last week and this week. So, hey, you know what? You got to do it sometimes. Yeah, but boring golf courses for what we do tend to help us out a lot. We have a lot of sticky stats that we can play with. There’s a lot of predictability with this golf course and last week, which is why we did so well. And we’re both on a heater. And you never walk away from the table when you’re on a heater, ever. you do it if you do it then you’re guaranteed to lose the rest of the time it’s just oh yeah math it’s science uh so yeah let’s uh let’s jump right into the news in the world of golf it’s a lot to cover starting with my guy from chico cali the dirty five thirty I’m I’m hyped and his big brother too let’s hit the news niblick I want to jump right into this it’s it’s I’m ready let’s jump All right, Jake, say it with me. Shout out NorCal. Shout out NorCal. So I’m NorCal. That’s the best part. I know it’s it’s God’s country. We are the birthplace of so many goats and industries across the world. Every kind of entertainment industry, music industry, sports industry, every goat in pretty much everything got their start in Northern California. It’s not a big region, but it’s the best region. and I’d put the chicagoland region right up next to it honestly I’ve been to chicago it’s one of my top five favorite places in the world uh so yeah I’ll I’ll give a tip of the cap to the midwest as well because they’re awesome but norcal is home and it’s the home of kurt kidiyama the winner of the twenty twenty five three m championship in blaine minnesota he started off pretty shaky couldn’t make a birdie on friday to save his life made the cut by a single shot at six hundred par and he went right to the range with his big brother daniel who’s a professional caddy abandoned dunes one of the most well-known golf resorts in the world uh brothers on the bag I competed against his brother in high school not successfully of course because he was shooting really really good scores by then section champion went to hawaii hilo on a full ride and uh he even back as a senior in high school he knew that his little brother who was ten at the time or ten or eleven Was already better than him and that’s Kurt Kurt goes and figure something out on the range on Friday night comes out guns a-blazing on Saturday goes out in Out in twenty eight. And we’re not just on fifty nine watch. At that point, we’re on fifty six, fifty seven. And then even through sixteen, he was on fifty eight watch, which is nuts on any golf course, even TPC Twin Cities. He bogey seventeen makes a makes a birdie on eighteen to shoot fifty nine or to shoot sixty and vaulted himself from there. barely making the cut to a tie for first. And then, well, let’s, let’s start off on Sunday with six birdies and eight holes and then coast to the finish line, uh, with his big brother on the bag. And you could tell the chemistry was there, Jake undeniable. These guys have always been close and they’re both very talented golfers in their own right. They know their game very well. And Kurt definitely found something on Saturday. Yeah, it was very clear. Very early on, like you said, on Saturday. I mean, he came out, gained eight strokes total over that entire round. Four and a half strokes almost entirely just with the irons, just on approach. Gained strokes everywhere around the course on that day. And like you said, the chemistry, I think, played a big part in it. It didn’t seem like there had to be a lot of thought over shots. There didn’t have to be a ton of discussion. It was like, Kurt, hit fade. Okay. It’s six feet from the pin. Great job. Go make a putt now. Like it was, it was, it was really something to watch. Like you said, we were talking about it in one of our group chats and it was like, okay, something watch all day, all day. And it carried right over into Sunday’s final round where he built himself a good sizable lead on the rest of the pack. Some guys like Akshay Bhatia had a really bad Sunday and fell out of the running for the championship. Nobody else really went as low as Kurt on the front nine. And it was pretty much over because he had control of the tournament and he didn’t really have any stress until he got to seventeen where tough par three, really shallow green. He just Made a three putt. It was whatever. He was still up by two shots. But I can’t get over the shot of maybe the whole season was on fourteen. Drives it right in the fairway bunker. It’s a long par four. He’s got one ninety one to a back pin placement and he sticks it to two feet, zero inches. Maybe the best shot. Just I mean, I was already like, oh, man, this is a pivotal moment, because if he if he can’t keep it in play off the tee, that approach game won’t matter. And it doesn’t matter when you’re on a group in a groove like that. Two feet out of a fairway bunker. One ninety one is insanity. I might not put it to a hundred feet from the flag on the same shot. Like there’s a fairway bunker, full swing shots. I will die on the Hill that they’re the hardest shot in golf and to pull it off with that level of pressure on that course in that moment, like that, that was kind of just when I knew that the, the tickets I had were cashing. Like, yeah, I was just hoping he put it somewhere near the green, not short-sighted where he could get up and down and save par and move on. And yeah, he completely, yeah, two feet on the dot below the hole, tap in birdie. Uh, that was pretty much the end of anybody else’s race to win that tournament. Uh, it was, it was a great time. I just had talked to Daniel and Kurt the week before at the Barracuda on Saturday and they just, they’re just so relaxed. They’re just, they’re go. They, they got everything figured out. And Kurt Kitayama, if he makes putts, like he’s like outside the top one strokes game putting this year, but yeah, The way he’s been striking the ball and making birdies, it’s fun to watch a guy that you know do that well and get his first win in a couple years and go from outside the playoff hunt to locked into the playoffs. I can’t love it more. Yeah, and like you said with the putter too, that was really the only struggle he had all weekend. And it was… it really only truly reared its head on Sunday. He lost nearly a stroke and a half with the putter, but round one game, nearly a half stroke, lost about a quarter of a stroke on a, on Friday, Saturday game too. Like if you can just keep yourself around neutral overall, of course, like this, like his, his overall numbers were point two strokes game with the putter. But yeah, Almost two and a half strokes gained on approach. Three and a third gained tee to green. When the rest of your game is that good, you’re puttered. It’s like Scottie. I’m not obviously comparing the skill level, but if Scottie’s puttering is legal, It’s the opportunities. And you mentioned the approach game when you’re sticking it to two feet, three feet on every approach, regardless of where you are off the tee putting gets really easy in a hurry for any level of golfer. If you’re sticking it that close, like he stuck so many shots inside of ten feet that it’s no wonder why he made so many birdies, twenty birdies over the final two rounds, most in thirty years on the entire PGA Tour. Yeah, that is mind blowing. Yeah, like we said, it was a master class in getting around that course and just doing what needs to be done to win a tournament. Lit it on fire, buddy. Let’s jump right in. Next story, Happy Gilmore II came out last week. For all of us that grew up in the nineties and saw the original Happy Gilmore as a young person, Definitely right to the veins with the nostalgia, the off-color humor. As actually, I enjoyed it thoroughly, even though I didn’t have many expectations that it’d be funny. I was looking forward to see what the cameos looked like. I wanted to see how they built the storyline, which was entertaining, to say the least. And again, Scotty Scheffler wins again. Best cameo by far. Learning to do the hockey punch from Happy and then getting thrown back in jail for hockey punching the guy on the first tee. Yeah. That, when he does the, like, trying to mimic Shooter. And then the funniest part of that whole scene to me is that he keeps his hand as the pistol to put it back in his pocket. Like, he’s holstering it. I was like, bravo, Scotty. Dude, I was the same way. I went into that with zero expectations that it was actually going to be good. And I was like, holy cow, this is… this it’s been so much fun to watch I made my wife watch it I don’t know if I’ve shown her many movies that have made her laugh that much on on dumb humor like she’ll watch stuff and it’s the she likes the type of humor where you kind of got to think about it for a second and that’s it there’s no thought process in this no yeah it was here’s the joke yeah but no it worked out so well I loved like you said the cameos were awesome uh everything from like Kelsey Plum just randomly showing up there Eric Andre Margaret Qualley like yeah just Nelly Gorda is a parolee a parolee yeah and the other one was uh I’m blanking on her first name now nancy lopez like just the and the whole storyline essentially being live versus pga just kind of rebranded and half the team oh and with the tgl twist too they they definitely combine both of those rival tours and then half the team it’s the live versus PGA stuff. Oh, it was so good. It was so much better than I expected it to be. And it’s one of those, it truly feels like one of those movies to me where if you, if you don’t like it, you’re, you’re trying not to cause it is just, you already went into it. Yeah. It’s, it’s just an objectively funny movie. It’s a classic Adam Sandler movie in modern times. Yeah. And so they take the half baked guy on the couch and turn into John Daly on the couch, drinking hand sanitizer, living in the garage. Like, that’s so good. Like, that’s just he was John Daly wasn’t even acting. That was just John Daly. I was going to say that was just him. Oh, so good. And like giving characters from the first movie like redemption arcs. Yeah. Making references to characters that they couldn’t make references to anymore for obvious reasons like Carl Weathers passing away. Yeah. Will Zalatouris, that’s his name? Are you kidding me? I died. I legitimately was struggling to breathe laughing so hard when I saw him peering around the corner in the locker room. And shaking his caddy just the same. Adam’s happy, just, ah, he gets it now. He gets it now, yeah. all right so good and I got we got to watch uh adam sandler and bryson they dropped a break fifty yes and then the if you watch that on youtube it’s pretty cool because uh adam sandler on an eagle putt tells bryson to get back in the golf cart and watch him make the eagle putt from what twenty feet big breaker and nails it buries it and all right it’s all told you that was that was savage that was I was and it it was also so perfect for me that the best drive adam sandler hit the whole whole round was a happy gilmar swing of course it was like it just it was you couldn’t have written a script better than that no and it’s it’s for all of our golf loving hearts it’s just it warms it warms warms it so well It was so good. So glad that movie dropped. Yes. All right. And moving on to the LPGA Scottish Open. We got a whole lot of wood. A whole lot of wood. Yes. Formerly the amateur champion of the women’s ranks, Lottie Wode comes into her very first professional start and she wins. She’s so good, guys. This is the English woman. She’s just that good. She’s super young still. She’s just turned pro. And yeah, for day one, turning pro, goes out there and stomps the Scottish Open. Just an impressive performance. She almost won a major in her last amateur performance. So, yeah, it’s it’s business as usual. But Lottie Wode, keep that name in mind. If you’re betting on LPGA in the future, she’s probably going to be worth a lot of money on the betting markets for any tournament she enters. Yeah, this is this is somebody who just turned professional, like you said, is twenty one years old and already has a top ten and a top three in women’s majors. Yeah. Like you want to talk about the future of women’s professional golf. I mean, we talked about it last one of the other times that I was on the show this year was right after a performance at Augusta. And like we said it then, we’re like, it’s like the talent is so clear. Oh, yeah. Yeah. The women’s golf is in such good hands right now that, I mean, we’re going to have to keep talking about it because when you compare it to the PGA tour, it’s got star power too. It’s got just as much, if not more now that there’s a severance in the, in the tours on the men’s side, the women’s tour is solid and there’s so much young talent. Lottie Wode’s just one of a handful of extremely talented female golfers. And the fact that she goes out there day one as a professional and just takes over, I remember, was she seventeen or eighteen when she won the Augusta National Women’s Amateur? Yeah. Yeah. Just completely torched all those other poor high school and college girls that thought they had a chance. That was cute. Yeah. Yeah. Lottie’s going to take down a lot of tournaments in her career. And so this is number one on the pro ranks. Congratulations, Lottie. We’re going to be excited to watch you going forward. One hundred percent. All right. We’re caught up. Let’s talk about. Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. Let me say we hit the caddy notes, Jake. Let’s hit them. That’s the wrong one. I’m really good at this. All right, we have Sedgefield. You got to say Sedgefield with like three D’s at the end and pinkies out. Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro. Final tournament on the PGA Tour regular season. Do you want to talk about Sedgefield or do you want me to talk about it, Jake? Because I know we know this like the back of our hand. Yeah, I was going to say this course has been around forever. It feels like it’s been hosting this event since two thousand eight. However, it also hosted as an alternate host site from, I believe, nineteen thirty eight to nineteen seventy five. So a lot of history at this event. Very straightforward forward course. It’s a Donald Ross course. You know what that means? It’s going to play positionally. You got to put yourself in good spots and you got to put well on Bermuda. It’s pretty straightforward. Par seventy, seventy one hundred yards. A lot of scorable par fours. Yes. I think the highest concentration of par fours under Bermuda. four hundred and eighty yards on tour. Yeah, just a very straightforward, nice, easy, short course, a course that I feel like you and I could go out. We will break a hundred there. Oh, yeah. We both break ninety there. Yeah. Which is why it makes sense that this is a bit of a birdie fest course at that as well. And it helps to that. Again, we’ve got so much history at this course. We know what we’re looking for here. So a lot of the the key stats of focus again are just Kind of what you expect at a course like this. You got to score on par fours. You got to make birdies or better. You got to avoid those bogeys. Don’t three putt. If you can do all of that, you pretty much have everything you need at this course. That said, a couple of things that I do want to point out about Sedgefield. I say this with zero hyperbole whatsoever. It is quite literally the easiest course on the PGA Tour to gain strokes on approach. Yep. Now, that doesn’t mean that that doesn’t matter because that’s still one of our key indicators of success here is those strokes gained on approach. It just makes the elite ball strikers have that much more of an advantage at this event. When you’re looking at this course, like we said, all of the par fours basically play between three hundred seventy five and five hundred yards. We got one that trickles over. It doesn’t really matter. Two par fives, five thirty and five forty five. Very easy. Very scorable. Par threes. I guess you could call them some of the hardest holes on the course playing between one seventy five and two twenty five. But again, it’s just it’s really straightforward. Lots of wedges, lots of short irons. Yep. We’re going to see probably the biggest concentration of approach shots that are seven iron through gap wedge that we may see all year long. all year. And I would even say eight iron down to sandwich because you’re going to, or even lob wedge, because there’s going to be lots of guys that are down there where they’re looking at under a hundred yards, hitting a little pitch shot in and trying to gauge distance control. Um, and you said approach is important. It’s also easy on this course compared to other courses. A lot of that is going to, you, you mentioned it, it kind of takes away the equalization effect. We get on a lot of golf courses where, uh, we’re going to see the best wedge players make more birdies because they’re going to be closer to the hole than the other players. That’s the most important part is a, you got to get in the fairway. Cause if you’re off the fairway here, that Bermuda rough is not going to let you get close enough to make a lot of birdies. And if you’re in the fairway in the right position, you better be sticking it close because if, If you’re not, somebody else is, and they’re going to go twenty to twenty two under par in this in these conditions. The weather’s looking pretty decent, softer, not as not quite as hot and humid as in years past. And the winds will gust over twenty miles an hour, but it’s generally going to be pretty calm. The greens are very undulating and but they are receptive. They’re tricky to put on. They’re not difficult to. retain your approach. You just got to be so close to the pin. So birdie or better percentage, obviously proximity between one twenty five and one seventy five is thirty percent of all the approach shots in this course. That’s huge. That’s sticky. We can predict that we can go back all the years at this tournament. We can go back to similar courses with the same buckets of proximity and see who does best and putting on Bermuda. Of course, putting on Bermuda is everything on this course because Bermuda is different. It’s got grain. It’s got all kinds of weird, like follows the sun through the sky. Uh, you gotta, you gotta account for a lot of weird stuff with putting on Bermuda. I grew up putting on Bermuda, so it’s fun. But it’s nothing like putting on POA. It’s nothing like putting on bent. It’s just putting on Bermuda. It’s a totally different animal. And there are some specialists in this field for that. To say the least. I mean, and especially to putting on Bermuda, like putting on POA, putting on bent grass. So much of that can be even just true course to course. Bentgrass at my courses here in Illinois, they’re all bentgrass for the most part. Bentgrass here is not the same as bentgrass in Iowa. It’s not the same as bentgrass in Indiana, Ohio, anywhere around us that has bent. It’s different. Bermuda is Bermuda. It plays very similarly no matter where you are. So this is one of the ones, too, where we don’t even have to necessarily look at recent success on Bermuda, we can look over a much larger sample size. Cause if you can put a Bermuda, you can put a Bermuda flat out. Yep. Absolutely. We had a little bit of a nuanced approach for some of these accurate guys off the tee. None of these guys are really going to be hitting driver that much. It’s just not that kind of course. You got to be in position and there’s not worth it. Like distance has no bearing on this tournament because it’s seventy one hundred yards. The course I play all the time is more than more yards than that. I was going to say my home club is seventy three. Yeah, mine’s seventy four fifty from the tips and I’ll play the blues and that’s a seventy two fifty. So, yeah, it’s this is this course is a pitch and a putt compared to last week. And it’s just a lot more difficult to put on. But hey, as long as you can avoid, based off of the data I found, as long as you can avoid three putts, you should be okay. Which is where, like you talked about, that proximity matters so much. Because if you put yourself two feet into a bad spot, those three putts come into play quick. Yeah. All right. What do you say we bet on some golf, Jake? Let’s bet on some golf. Yeah. Twirl the clubs, baby. Fire the cannons. Thank you. All right. Top of the board. You got some guy named Matt Fitzpatrick somehow lucked his way into a favorite position. I have no idea why skipping over him because I have no idea why he’s even the favorite in any stretch of the imagination. Let’s go to Keegan Bradley. Twenty five to one playing hot. All season, great on approach. He’s a damn good putter on Bermuda’s surfaces as well. Having one of his best seasons of his entire career as your incoming Ryder Cup captain. Captain America, will he play? Will he just stay as captain? We don’t know yet. But I think he’s the favorite at the top of this board to bet on. because he’s the class of this field as far as brand recognition and, of course, form this season. I’ll start right there, Jake. What do you feel about Keegan Bradley? Do you think he can win this tournament, and is it a value to bet on him? It is. It’s not often that the second, second favorite in the field pays out at twenty five to one. Like we don’t get this chance often. And when you look at Bradley, like my model absolutely loved him this week. Top five in the field in strokes, game T to green strokes, game ball striking, total proximity. He’s only lost strokes on approach and three of his seventeen starts this entire year. Seems good. the irons have been a weapon the driver I think I think that’s a big part of the resurgence that he’s had he like it’s been a weapon for him which he hasn’t been able to save for good chunks of his career and then like you said the putter has been solid he’s put very well on bermuda throughout his career he ranks in the top half of the field in this stat in it’s been shaky of late but Like we said, if you can putt on Bermuda, you can putt on Bermuda. Let’s get a guy who’s struggling a little bit. Put him back on a field or on a type of grass that he likes. It makes so much sense. He’s one of my favorite DFS plays this week for the same reason. Yeah. He’s number two in my model. Number thirty eight is really good in this field for fairways gained for Keegan Bradley. That that was a stat that I was surprised to see was him finding fairways at such a high clip this season over his last twenty four rounds. Number two in that very concentrated approach bucket between one twenty five and one fifty. And just every ball striking stat is top, top, top. This guy is, this guy’s flushing it this season. That’s why we have a controversy of whether or not the U S captain of the Ryder cup is going to be a playing captain. We should have no business even debating that, but Keegan Bradley is causing that debate because he’s playing that well. Yeah. It’s he’s like you said, playing out of his mind and going back to the driver being the weapon, much like I brought up, he only lost strokes, uh, uh, with the irons in three of seventeen starts he’s only lost stroke lost strokes comparatively accuracy wise to the field in four of his seventeen starts this year he’s gaining on the field almost every single week with distance and accuracy like again it’s not a course where driver you know true driver is going to come into play that frequently but when you have the elite ball striking that he’s shown with every other club throughout the bag too and we didn’t we haven’t even talked about like his wedges have been otherworldly for the past, what, three, four months, essentially dating back to Valero. Like every club in his bag has been a weapon at some point this season, which is not something he’s been able to say for what, four, five years now. Yeah. At least, um, I’m intrigued by Ben Griffin. I am not a huge fan of how his approach game has kind of shaped up since he went on his tear a couple months ago. But talk me into it because twenty five to one seems pretty sweet for a guy who’s having a great season and Ben Griffin. Yeah. So for me, it boils down a lot to. the approach game hasn’t been as good, but he’s still been gaining. He’s still, you know, positive true strokes gained over the last two missed cuts that he has on approach. He’s been solid with the driver, except for at the open. Most people struggle with the driver at the open. So I’m not reading into that too much. And even if you take it, when you consider that, yes, he has missed the cut in his last two starts. If we look at the six events prior to that, uh, No finish worse than tied for fourteenth with a win in there. This is a course as well that he’s played well in his career. He’s got a fourth place and back in twenty twenty two tied for seventh last year. And this was before he was the Ben Griffin that we’ve learned to love so much this year. And the putter’s fallen off. It was terrible at John Deere. It was mostly neutral at the open last course that he gained strokes with the putter. Detroit golf club, Donald Ross design. Yeah. There’s something about when I can get a guy like this, where I view like if the miscut at the open and the miscut at the John Deere didn’t happen, I think there’s a really strong chance he would be the betting favorite. I think that’s why Fitzy is so high is he’s just been so good for straight top. Seventeen finishes. Like he’s been on a tear elite ball striking of late, but Ben Griffin is a guy where we’re getting some value caked in because the recent performance hasn’t been so good. But again, we talked about it before the show. When you get a guy who’s just like Sedgefield on Sedgefield, they typically play pretty well. yeah and he’s a he’s uh by far more successful putting on bermuda than any other surface uh that’s that’s nice we like we like ben griffin I’m not sure about the value at if he was at I’d be all over at I’d be pretty close to hitting a button too um for me I’m I’m looking at that and I’m kind of holding up next to akshay batia who has missed the cut here three times in a row And that should be scary for a lot of people, except Akshay Bhatia is having a different season in twenty twenty five than he’s had in his whole career, including last year when he took down the Valero. Akshay Bhatia on approach has always been an ace, especially on these shorter on the shorter golf courses where he’s hitting short irons into all the greens. This guy is one of the best short iron approach players on the planet right now. and uh going from outside the top in putting to inside the top in putting that’s massive massive and he struggled putting here the last three years wonder why because he couldn’t put anywhere and this yeah and this year he’s putting the lights out he went to that the long putter with the the not anchored that’s against the rules, but he’s not anchored almost, almost anchored and it’s been paying off. He’s he’s making those short putts that he missed all of the last few years. And this is a dangerous guy that can go really low. If he starts sinking putts on this golf course. Yeah. Thirty to one, two. It’s good odds. I like him more as a DFS play because of the weekly upside that he offers just in general. Four missed cuts in a row here is hard to get past. And I get it. He’s playing so much better this year than he has in any other year. He’s been on a good streak. He’s been scoring well at tough courses. I feel more comfortable on like a top, top ten area for him, much more than an outright area. But like I said, dude, the guy’s got the upside to just go out there and pull a Kurt, get a Yama, figure something out on a, on a Friday night at the range and go out and go under on the weekend alone. Yeah, it’s definitely in his range of outcomes. Who else we like here? Oh, short course specialist. Not doing so well lately, but again, when you get a course under seventy two hundred yards, Siwoo Kim comes up just naturally. Not a long hitter, but he’s very accurate and doesn’t get himself into trouble. And on a course like this, Siwoo Kim’s aggression on approach really pays off. Yep. And he’s a guy too, that again, just has a lot of that court course history that plays really well here. Hasn’t been great the last few years, but we got to remember, this is a guy who had a stretch here. win, miscut, but then fifth, tied for third, tied for second. The guy’s got a history at this field. He’s shown that he still can be a weapon on approach, can be a weapon off the tee, around the green. He’s not doing anything special, but he’s not killing himself around the green. The putter has been his bugaboo, and it’s been really bad over the past… what eight starts here. But again, a guy who’s got a history of putting well on Bermuda overall, a guy who’s got some course history here. This is, this is a sprinkle play. It’s not a, you know, go all in play by any means, but he’s one of the few guys at this level that I still feel we can kind of extract some value from. Yeah. And another guy that if he puts neutral to the field, he can very easily take this thing down. Thirty five one for those odds. I will take it and run. Even when he won here in twenty sixteen, gained a quarter of a stroke with the putter. Yeah, it doesn’t take much for Siwu. It does not. All right. Let’s hit the mid range now. I’m going to let you lead off with your guy here. Forty five to one. Tell me about my favorite English golfer, Harry Hall. I mean, I’ve talked about Harry Hall this year. It’s so deep that I didn’t even feel like I wrote about it in my article this week, and I literally started it with saying there isn’t much more I can write about Harry Hall that I haven’t written already. Top ten in the field in strokes gained on par fours, bogey avoidance, birdies are better gained, putting on Bermuda, and par four scoring under five hundred yards. Like the guy just… It fits this course. Putting on any surface. This guy is just a… He rolls it. He rolls it. He is the epitome of what I think of when I think of an English golfer. He is just what comes to mind. Isn’t a masher off the tee. Isn’t even particularly accurate off the tee. It’s nothing special. He’s ninety-third in strokes and good drives, fairways gained. Ninety-third. It’s just… It’s so boring. It’s so boring to watch him play, but it’s not like a Brian Harmon boring where I hate it the whole time. It’s a, it’s a Harry Hall boring, which is a good kind of boring. And even with the issues with the driver, I don’t care. It’s again, it’s a course where driver’s going to come out. What truthfully, maybe three times for three to five times at most on any given week. He’s been consistent of late as well. He’s gotten, you know, Since May, since May started, he’s only got one start where he finished outside the top thirty. He has never made the cut here. I got to bring it up since I knocked Batia for it. But we do get a little bit of a better value here. He’s only got two missed as opposed to actually four. But I mean, if Harry Hall comes into Sedgefield with the game that he’s had this year. Oh, it’s it’s he could be an absolute weapon. Here’s one thing about Harry Hall that I don’t find boring. He is a birdie-making machine regardless of conditions. If it’s easy, he makes birdies. If it’s medium, he makes birdies. If it’s difficult, he makes more birdies. He’s even better in difficult conditions. So let that wind gust up over the weekend and watch Harry Hall take off. This guy is a wizard in tougher conditions. But even in easy conditions, this guy’s number three in birdie or better percentage in this field. He’s going to make birdies. Will he kill himself with bogeys and double bogeys? Occasionally. Thanks to his off the tee squirreliness, but his approach game solid and a short game is probably the best in this field. And his bounce back percentage is, I believe I don’t have the number in front of me right now, but I remember when I looked at was looking up, I believe his bounce back percentage is top fifteen on tour in all twenty like even when he makes those bogeys, which again, he’s been really good at avoiding overall. he bounces back so well from it. And that’s exactly what you need. And like you said, let the wind gust up, turn this into a link style course where he’s got to flight the ball. Oh, sign me up. Yeah. That that’s when Harry Hall’s really fun to watch. He’s a stripe show when the wind is up. As much as we hate on Tommy Fleetwood, it’s the same kind of thing. He already has that short follow-through. When you give him the reason to have it and those flighted shots, you can see some magical things happen with Harry Hall and flighted shots. Much the same of his countrymen. Also has no top fives on tour in the last three years. He’s a lock for top forty. He’s not going to be top five. I will bet him a top ten. I will bet Harry Hall top ten this week because I think he has it in him. top twenties in, uh, in five of, or six of his last eight starts on tour. He’s consistent. He’s going to make the cut. He’s going to be up there. He’s not probably not going to win. I mean, he might, he could win. I just don’t see it. I definitely see top ten in his future. Yeah. Top ten, top twenty, both. Lock. Lock. I shouldn’t even say I’m going to bet it. I already have. He’s done did it. The DraftKings money has been spent. That’s where it is. Yes. All right. And I… cannot quit this guy he’s got all the talent in the world and he comes in super hot on approach ball striking in general he’s not good at avoiding bogeys because he’s that aggressive luke clanton’s my goodness another perfect dfs play if you’re into that sort of thing uh luke clanton is he’s going to get some money from me because those are amazing odds for a guy who can go lower than anybody else in the field he’s in that same akshay batia excitement factor for scoring uh Will he get into trouble on occasion because he’s so aggressive? Yes, absolutely. He’s the hundred and twenty-first in bogey avoidance in this field. Every other stat, he’s inside the top half of this field and all the ball striking metrics are very high in this field. Luke Clanton, if he gets hot, there might not be anything left in the wreckage behind him because he’s that good. Yeah. And in his recorded history. So looking at data golf, we can go all the way back to his performances all the way back to juniors in twenty seventeen. The longest stretch of like, quote unquote, bad golf, which I would argue he’s in one of those now. The longest stretch of bad golf he had was a seven tournament stretch. He’s just played six weeks in a row of bad golf objectively. he’s bouncing back this week. This is a Luke Clanton week. I, again, another guy wrote about my article. I said, I’ve kind of been off of him for the last month. I’m back in, this is the type of field where he can show up. I mean, we, we saw it like looking at twenty, twenty four. When you put this guy on a short course, uh, He came in fifth here last year. He had a tide for second at John Deere, another, you know, relatively short course comparatively. Like this is the type of field that is the perfect get right for him to just say, all right, I’ve, since I joined the tour officially, I’ve not been great. Y’all need to remember what I can do. Yeah. Yeah. He, he was top five last year as an amateur. That should tell you what you need to know. Uh, And just for the reference for everybody listening at home, Jake Perry’s article is found at fantasyalarm.com. You can click the little golf tab and you’ll see his mug right there and his words. Outstanding content as always. And he’s a winner. That’s why we have him on this show, because this show is for winners. Connor and I aren’t the only ones winning. Jake Perry is notable winner in golf betting circles. So check out that article, fantasyalarm.com. Right, Jake? I got that right? Get on over there. Get all pro. And not only on Fantasy Alarm do we do golf, we do everything over there. Everything. We got baseball, basketball, football. We got a guy using our stuff who won the Millie Maker twice last year in football. We know what we’re talking about over there. Just like Bo. I wouldn’t come on this show if Bo and Connor weren’t winners. No offense. I love you guys. Sprinkles are winners, and I cover everything in sprinkles. There we go. Or some people call them Jimmy’s. They’re sprinkles. Yeah, that’s what I thought. Yeah, and we’re not all from New Jersey. New Jersey people, I don’t apologize for not wanting to call them Jimmy’s because they’re sprinkles. Yeah. I’ve also heard of Jimmy’s being slang terms for a lot of things, and most of them aren’t sprinkles. All the Gators girls are wearing Jimmy’s. We got… Luke Clanton is sixty to one. I am going to take a shot on Ryan Gerard. He’s at fifty five one. That’s a little short for me for Ryan Gerard, but he just did win the Barracuda. So where he’s not the best putter, typically he’s riding a hot putter right now. And his putting on Bermuda scares me a little bit. But this guy’s a really good iron player, really accurate off the tee. Ryan Gerard, killer instinct, got the good vibes going after going to NorCal and taking down the trophy. I was able to chat with him as well as Isaiah Salindo on the putting green on Saturday at the Barracuda. I’m not going to take credit for him winning subsequently the next day, but it did happen. I did talk to Ryan Gerrard and he won the very next day. You talked to him. He won the next day. You talked to Kurt. He won the next week. And Ryan, Ryan Jard right now, fifty five to one. If he slips to sixty, I think you should at least put some top ten money on him because that’s a consistent player who’s not going to beat himself. And he’s a pretty darn good birdie maker when he’s hot. And right now he’s hot. Ryan Jard’s having a really underrated. good season on the pga tour this year uh and he definitely wants to beat his fellow tar heel ben griffin uh they’ve been clowning each other all week all season in fact uh but uh griffin of course was get in they were in the press conference together just clowning each other asking each other questions uh check that out that’s that’s good entertainment there Yeah. And I mean, if anybody wants to question what this guy’s capable of for any reason, second place this year, Valero tied for eighth at the PGA at Oakmont. That’s a big boy course too. Yeah. Oakmont makes Sedgefield look like the Muni course that I play here down the road. Makes it look like the par three course that closed down in my hometown and we still go play it. Yeah. All the grass growing out. Yeah. We don’t care. We’ll figure it out. Wildlife took over here. Nature’s healing. I also have Bud Colley, friend of the show. We love the Bud Colley story. And anytime we’re on a short course under seventy three hundred yards, Bud Colley goes right to the top of the leaderboard. You know why? Because he’s one of the best wedge players on the planet and number one in this field and strokes gain par four. Pretty key stat when on a golf course with twelve par four. He’s one of three players in my model that was above field average in every stat. Every stat. Yep. And the only one he was close to the middle for me was in fairways gained. He was right smack dab in the middle of the pack. Number one par fours, eighteenth and birdie or better approach top forty putting thirteenth putting on Bermuda thirteenth. I like that, Jake. I like it a lot. Pretty good. And almost nobody in the field avoids bogeys like he can. It’s true. Yeah. Like when he misses cuts at a band. Fourth in bogey avoidance for Bud Colley. Seventy to one, guys. Seventy to one on Bud Colley. Yeah, I’m in. I’m fully in. And I’m glad you agree with me because Bud Colley is one of our favorite guys on this whole show. I get it. Are you ready to go to some long shots? Because it’s my favorite part of the show. Long shots are… They’re so fun. They’re so much fun because we’re winners, and we call long shots, too, just as much as favorites. All right. My first long shot is AD to one. William Mao. He’s just so hot right now, like Hansel. William Mao’s hot. great ball striker great ball striker and another guy who when he’s making putts when he’s chipping well like he is now dangerously good uh we called him a couple weeks ago at the isco sixty five to one win there eighty to one here and I would say a similar strength field to the isco honestly That’s an alternate tournament in Louisville. It’s the same length course, short course. The ISCO course is tougher than Sedgefield by strokes gained par, even shorter and more difficult. William Mao on a short course, he goes a little big brother on the field when he gets hot like that. The course for the ISCO was playing tough on everybody, and William Mao’s just out there draining fifty-footers and sticking it close. I was like, ooh, this guy’s got some juice. Thankfully, I bet on him before that tournament started. I bet on two guys that week, and it happened to be one of them, William Mao, who I also predicted in January would win a tournament this year. Cha-ching! Yeah, it was impressive. Like you said, that course was playing hard. He’s a guy that, again, a young guy, still trying to kind of figure out what he’s capable of on tour, and he’s shown it. He followed the win at the ISCO up last week. He was tied for seventh at three M. He was tied for sixth earlier this year in Puerto Rico. The guy’s got game. He’s just one of those guys who just has to, I don’t know if he truly has a weapon yet. He needs to find a weapon. He’s pretty even keel. But if he finds a weapon, It could be anything. He could just magically become an elite wedge player. And the rest of his game is so solid that he’s he’s a jack of all trades, master of none at this stage based on his early twenties. So let’s see what the kid is made of. And this is the kind of field where people tend to prove themselves. This tournament isn’t just the last few guys shuffling into the top seventy for next week. This is a lot of guys playing for status next year. Mao is definitely in that conversation. He’s on conditional status this season. He needs a top finish here to keep a full time card next year. That’s a lot of motivation for a lot of this field. These younger guys are hungry. They don’t want to go back to Korn Ferry next year. William Mao obviously locked himself up pretty good status next year because of his win at the ESCO, but this is money. This is status. This is all the things that these guys care about as a livelihood. I’m ready to go. William Mao, baby. I want to disagree with your next one, so just say your piece, and I’ll let you finish, and then I’m just going to vent. Nico Echevarria paying out a hundred to one. And I get it. I get it. I get it. I get it. And I love Nico. I love Nico Echevarria. Viva Colombia. But he’s one of the only, he’s one of only nine players in my model to rank above field average and every stat. Nothing pops on him compared to the rest of the field. It’s more that I just don’t see a true weakness. The putter can go away. I know that much like I alluded to earlier, a guy who was struggling with the putter who had a really good putting week at a Donald Ross course that plays very similar to this one. He came tied for six at the rocket mortgage. He’s got some course history here, came tied for twenty second last year. And not even was it just a good performance with the putter at Detroit Golf Club. It was the best performance with the putter that he had since March. You get this guy on Bermuda, and that’s when he can be a weapon. The putter can be strong. The driver is extremely accurate. He’s gaining on accuracy almost every single week. He’s not a distance guy by any means. The irons have been mostly strong for the past ten starts. Mostly at least compared to the fields he’s been playing in. It’s not a superstar. It’s not a, this guy is absolutely going to win, but I don’t see a way. I don’t see any reason to not be at least interested in a guy who is solid on everything in this field at a hundred to one. Yeah, I get it. Nico is his, his, his, Red flags are baked in at a hundred to one. Yep. He’s having a pretty decent season. I have him as number one in this field putting on Bermuda. That should tell you what I’m interested in. That’s a big kicker. Like that one stat knocked him up to forty second in my in my model. I filter my model a lot. Everybody on the watches the show knows that I have the ultra filtered Brita picture of the model and Nico Echevarria is thirty fifth and bogey avoidance. Fifteenth and birdies are better. Number one putting on Bermuda. And he’s bad on approach in one of the three buckets, but he’s also like ball striking. He’s a hundredth. And according to my model and T to green, he’s a hundred and thirteenth. That scares me a little bit, but it’s also like, it’s not that bad. Like the, the, the, the main stats are strong. The ancillary stats are weaker. So I get it. But I think my main protest with Nico this week is just how much run he’s getting in our industry. Like if you go on Twitter, like, Among all the other people who do the same thing we do professionally, it seems like Nico Echevarria is the end-all, be-all pick, and I just don’t see it that way. I see it as he’s a nice player who putts well on this particular surface. He’s not going to have to worry about hitting the ball down there, because he just doesn’t. I worry that we get a little too over our skis, and he’s already gone from a hundred to one to seventy-five to one and kind of back up to eighty and Uh, so the values really kind of dissolved and it’s kind of creeping back. So maybe by Thursday morning, we’ll get a better line on Nico, but right now it’s just a lot of hype and helium. And I don’t want anything to do with that as a handicapper, as somebody who looks at odds, looks at probability factors and in current form, he scares me a little bit. And he’s not my favorite place. That’s why he’s all the way down here. I’m much more comfortable. His his top twenty number right now is plus sixty. That’s much, much more comfortable sprinkling on that than I am as a true outright. But again, at one hundred to one, I’ve spent three dollars in a lot worse ways in my life. I have done that multiple times today. I like Patrick Fishburne a little bit better at one hundred twenty to one more of a well-rounded guy. Nico’s the great Bermuda putter and an accurate player. But I think right. Patrick Fishburne, another young, talented guy who very volatile guy. Despite having a well-rounded, yeah, to say the least, he’s either going to shoot for a top ten finish or he’s going to miss the cut by five. There really is no in-between for Fishburne, but it’s his rookie season. That’s kind of what we get. Even he’s a well-rounded guy, but he’s not the best at avoiding bogeys, but a hundred and twenty to one. I’ll put my bet on the talent five bucks for that one. And then I’ll let you wrap up the long shots because I just want to throw in my two hundred to one guy that I also talked to a couple of weeks ago on the range while he was warming up for his round. Jackson Suber. This guy’s having a really decent season and under the radar. Nobody really talks about him. They’re always talking about the amateur Jackson Coven. I like Jackson Suber this week. Jackson Suber’s got. He’s got the wedge game and it excites me that this guy is so young and so polished on those not full swing shots. Your your shorter approach shots. He is nails. another guy who played really well at rocket rocket classic this year, Detroit golf club. But yeah, the last guy I’ve got Eric Cole coming off at one fifty to one. This is very much as Bo and I talked about before the show. So he’s the horse of the course. You get this guy on such field. He plays well. Doesn’t matter what he’s doing. Every other course this season. Hey, hey, he played well at the Byron Nelson C.J. Cup. That’s about it. At least, especially over the last year. And everybody loves that course. Yeah, totally. But yeah, you put this guy on Sedgefield. He plays well. Debut here, twenty twenty three tied for fourteenth last year, tied for seventh. If you do the math there, that’s a seven seven place jump. If you jump from tied for seventh up from that, what do you get? First place. Simple math. One fifty to one. I don’t need to talk about his game. He can have amazing weeks with the putter. He can have very good weeks with the wedges. We just hope the other stuff doesn’t kill him. It might one to one I’m sprinkling. So just to reinforce super a little bit more, I just looked back at this and I forgot already, but he’s third in this field and bogey avoidance and second and birdies are better percentage and twenty second putting on Bermuda. That’s surprising for a guy. It’s two hundred to one. Yeah. All of that. And knowing that you talk to him, especially after knowing you talked to Gerard and then he won and then you talk to Kitty on one. I’m surprised I’m in on super. I wasn’t in going in. I just, I just wish that Isaiah Salindo was in the field next week for the playoffs. If he, I mean, if he wins this week, he will be, but yeah, So Linda is the other guy I talked to the most because him and his cat, they were hanging out on the putting green and just chatting it up like an hour before he’s teeing off. And that was the guy I was talking about that we were talking about the Zurich classic where I bet on him and Kevin Velo first round leader and they went on shot fifty nine or something stupid. I was like, I thought you guys were going to shoot fifty five that day. He’s like, I thought we were, too. And we just ran out of gas. I think we started joking around too much in the back nine. He was chuckling about he was like, that was a lot of fun, though. I was like, it was for me, too, because everybody who watched the show was like that was a hundred to one first round leader bet and nailed it. Hey, man, sometimes it’s all about the vibes out there. And it was Team NorCal. Yeah, NorCal. It’s vibes. Team NorCal. That’s all you need sometimes. All right. Who’s going to win this thing? And what was your prediction for winning score? I’m going to go with Ben Griffin. I’m going to go eighteen under. All right. And I will go actually a twenty one under. I like it. I can see both of them happening. Yep. Ran over a little bit. Apologize to you in West Tennessee. They got a little bit edit cut coming your way, but we’ll we’ll do better next week at the FedEx Cup. St. Jude Classic in Tennessee. Where is that? TPC Southwind? I believe so. Yeah. All right. Jake Perry, thank you again for joining us. Check his workout at fantasyalarm.com. You can check my workout right here and on Betting Pros PGA Podcast with Pat Fitzmaurice. That’s on YouTube already. Join us next week for the playoffs. Playoffs? Talk about playoffs. Playoffs? I’m just happy to win a game. Playoffs? Playoffs? All right, Jake. See you around the bend, guys.
The PGA Tour takes over the greens of Greensboro, NC, for the 2025 Wyndham Championship!
With a first-place finish last month at the Travelers Championship and a smattering of other top tens this year, can Keegan Bradley win at Wyndham against the 25-1 odds? Or will Ben Griffin, also at 25-1, make a push to come out on top at the Wyndham Championship after some narrow misses in past years?
Analysts Bo McBrayer & Jake Parry share their top PGA Tour bets for the 31st stop of 2025 on “The 19th Hole (S5 E31).”
⏰ Time Stamps:
00:00 Introduction
02:57 News Niblick: PGA Tour News Update
03:35 NorCal Brothers Kurt Kitayama & Daniel Torch 2025 3M Open
10:30 Happy Gilmore 2: Fresh Nostalgia
14:53 Lottie Woad Wins 2025 LPGA Scottish Open
17:10 Caddie Notes: Sedgefield Country Club Breakdown
24:25 Club Twirls: 2025 Wyndham Championship Picks & Predictions
24:57 The Favorites
34:11 The Mid-Range
44:56 The Longshots
55:50 Plugs + Outro
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